With experts working on the methods to increase the profit levels, the CCI indicator has come as a great help for people. Those of who are interested for trading in the Forex markets should keep in mind various factors. There could be many price fluctuations in the currency pairings. Since the Forex trading cannot go without the currency pairs, it is always advisable to keep an eye open for both the currencies as a change in any one can be an indicator of loss or gain. Both the currencies are a bit difficult to be tracked always.
Therefore, if there is the utilization of the best Forex indicators, then, it can be rounded up to the nearest levels in order to see that the point of investment is coming close. The CCI indicator was developed by a very famous Forex investment specialist known as Lambert who tried to analyze the Forex movement within a cyclic group. By this means, he could say whether the market is being overbought or oversold, both of which is an indicator of being at loss. There is a cyclical movement of the Forex market in such a case, which means that the investor has to be alert about the different behaviors of the market.
By using the commodity channel index or CCI, people could know the fluctuations of the trade market and accordingly invest at a mid point. Since the oscillations are usually between 200 on either side of zero, it is usually advised to invest at points which are between these two extremes. It has helped in the best process of investing as it helps people in knowing about the numeric values that can help the investors decide about the type of investment. These have been known as the best Forex indicators and therefore being promoted by the platforms for their customers who want good level indicators for their investments.
Such types of calculation indices are mostly based on the mathematical calculations and therefore quite accurate in their predictions, thereby increasing the trust of people in such indicator systems. Their accuracies have also been defined in advanced manner these days so that there are many educated people who have been able to understand the operations of such indicators. It is not without reason that the CCI indicator has become to be established as a great means of knowing about the Forex trading.
Those, who have been able to use it in the right way, have felt its advantages in a big way. They are now able to at least, make predictions in a better way which brings in better profits without making big losses. Best Forex indicators have become established as good means of improving the investment profiles so that there is a better way to handle the Forex trading, which has given reprieve to lot of investors.

How to Trade Ranges in Forex?

While most traders seek to trade with market trends, the reality is that most of the time the market moves in ranges without a defined trend. According to data from some brokers, those traders who focus on trading in ranges tend to be more successful and obtain better returns more regularly than those who only trade based on trends.
That is why in this article we are going to provide a brief guide to trading in the ranges with the greatest efficiency using several important technical indicators and other tools that can help you identify the ideal times to enter and exit each trade.
We will also show the conditions under which this trading strategy should not be applied, especially at times when the market is experiencing signs of volatility and is going to move with a fairly strong trend.
Traders who normally trade in ranges do not take into account the direction of the market as they assume that sooner or later the price will return to its starting point. That is why they base their strategies on the possibility that the price will move between the same levels on multiple occasions, for which their goal is to make profits by taking advantage of these upward and downward oscillations.

Disadvantages of Range Trading

The main disadvantage of trading in ranges is that on those occasions when the price breaks one of the limits of the channel, it tends to move quite strongly in the direction of the breakout. For this reason, those traders who do not have adequate risk managementthey may suffer great losses.
Therefore, although it may seem the opposite, operating in ranges is not easy. That is why most of the great investors are dedicated to developing strategies based on trends since under these market conditions it is possible to earn a lot of money. However, it is possible to obtain good returns consistently in markets that move in ranges.
In the case of the Forex market, one of the most relevant aspects is to operate only with the currency pairs that show the greatest probability of staying in a range. Below we will provide a guide to trading ranges in the forex market, concentrating on the tools based on technical and fundamental analysis that increase the chances of success.

Supports and the resistances

Support and resistance are the basis of range trading as the price often bounces off of these. We can define support as a price level at which most traders tend to buy and resistance the price level at which traders tend to sell. The more times the market has failed in its attempts to break through support or resistance, the more important this will be and indicates at the same time that it is a level of indecision between buyers and sellers. Another aspect that influences the importance of these levels is the extension of the period of indecision, in this case the longer it is, the more relevant the support or resistance will be.

What pairs should I trade in ranges?

Before starting to trade with ranges in the Forex market we must choose the right pairs to do so. Traders interested in this type of strategy can benefit from choosing those pairs that are more likely to stay in a defined range for extended periods of time as opposed to others that tend to move in very strong trends. In this case, the key currency is the US dollar (USD), whose pairs generally move in trends. Below is a list of currency pairs to avoid when trading ranges:

EUUSD
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD

For this reason, the most suitable pairs for range-based strategies are those that do not include the USD and which are influenced by the divergence in performance between the two countries in question. Among the pairs that we can take into account are the following:

EUGBP
EUCHF
CHF/JPY
GBP/JPY
AUD/CAD
Others.

In this group of peers we can find several low risk and others high risk. Low risk pairs are known as those that move within a relatively narrow range while high risk pairs are those that fluctuate in a wider range. Low-risk pairs are safer to trade but offer lower profits. On the contrary, high-risk pairs offer a higher return but at the same time a higher risk.
One way to determine the risk level of a currency pair is through the interest rates of its currencies. The difference between the interest rates of two countries usually affects the range that the pair formed by their currencies operates.
For example, the differential between interest rates in the European Union is much lower than that between Japan and the United Kingdom, which is why the GBP/JPY pair is more volatile than the EUCHF. From here we can define the following rule:
The higher the interest rate differential between two countries, the more volatility the pair will have and the higher the range in which it oscillates.
It is important to take this rule into account and accommodate to the volatility of the pairs since an operator who likes low risk and therefore prefers safer operations should trade in pairs in which the spread between interest rates is small.
On the contrary, in the case of a trader who has a preference for high risk since he expects that his operations will produce high returns, he must operate in pairs whose differential between interest rates is high. Ignoring interest rate differentials before trading ranges can lead to potentially winning trades ending up in losses.
In this case, currency pairs with low ranges and that allow trading with relatively narrow stops and with large volumes are the EUGBP and EUCHF, while the crosses that have high ranges and require wider stops with larger trading volumes. smaller (and less leveraged) are GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY among others.
It is very important to keep this in mind before formulating the trading strategy. For example, if we are trading a pair as volatile as the GBP/JPY there is not much point in trading with a very tight stop as the price is likely to reach it before moving in the direction we want. Also, that same volatility makes it dangerous to trade very large volumes as the potential for losses is high compared to a lower range pair.
https://preview.redd.it/nko6isgwhno91.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=abdab9f039e719405882c5044baa4383d6e422bb

Technical indicators for range trading

There are several technical indicators that can be used as quite useful analysis tools since they were specifically designed for ranging markets, however it is important to know what they are and under what conditions to use them. Some allow detecting overbought conditions (in resistance) or oversold (in supports) in the market, as is the case with oscillators.
Some indicators that we can use when trading ranges are Stochastic Oscillators , MACD , ADX , Bollinger Bands, RSI and CCI. Next we will explain how two of the most useful indicators are used when trading with ranges:

Using the RSI in range trading

The Relative Strength Index or RSI is an oscillator that is among the most popular indicators today. It was invented in 1978 by J. Welles Wilder and what it basically does is compare the magnitude of the recent gains in a specific instrument (a currency pair, a stock, etc) with the recent losses converting the ratio obtained into a number that fluctuates between 0 and 100.
If we are trading a currency pair that moves in a range, we can apply the following rules to trade based on the RSI:

Open a buy position when the RSI crosses from below to above the 30 level.
Place a stop loss about 10 pips below the previous low as a protective measure.
If the trade develops in our favor we close the position and take profit when the RSI reaches the overbought area at the 70 level.
Wait for the RSI to lose strength and cross below the 70 level at which point we open a short position.
Place a stop loss about 10 pips above the previous high as a protective measure.

If the trade develops in our favor we close the position and take profit when the RSI reaches the oversold area at the 30 level.
If we see the following image, several examples of operations carried out applying these simple principles in the EUGBP pair are shown:
https://preview.redd.it/3ax9wjnuhno91.png?width=610&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b23b52a3b1ac869b3aac79ec437cd97a28d2275
The green circles mark the buying operations and the orange circles the selling operations. The dotted lines indicate the 30 and 70 levels of the RSI. Being a pair that mainly moves in ranges during the period analyzed in the chart, the signals derived from the RSI were quite reliable as you can see, producing in most cases winning trades.

Using Bollinger Bands in Range Trading

Bollinger bands are a particularly useful indicator for range trading just like the RSI so it can be combined with it when analyzing ranges in the market. What this tool does is compare relative price levels and volatility during specific time periods. Bollinger bands are made up of three lines that encompass most of the price action.
The idea with this is that when the price touches the upper band it is an indication that the market is overbought since it is above the average and if the price touches the lower band it is considered that the price is oversold since it is above the average. below average.
Based on this, when the market is in a range, traders should buy when the price is touching the lower band (oversold market) and sell when it touches the upper band (oversold market).
In this case, the standard configuration of this indicator is used for its moving averages, which is 2 periods. Although the concept is easy to understand, the following graphic example will make it easier to visualize:
https://preview.redd.it/byz6n7vshno91.png?width=586&format=png&auto=webp&s=0249ebad148f0dbba7f9ed646262864a8b97b042
If you use the RSI, Bollinger bands or any other indicator to trade ranges, the important thing is to know when and how to use them so that the signals they produce are reliable.
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A rash of protests has broken out across the developing world, all of them preoccupied with power, blind to the ongoing ecological devastation humankind has wreaked. Temperatures and costs keep rising; our environmental bill is coming due.
Last Week in Collapse: December 3-9, 2022
This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter bringing together some of the most important, timely, helpful, demoralizing, ironic, stunning, or otherwise must-see moments in Collapse.
This is the 50th newsletter! You can find the November 26-December 2 edition here if you missed it last week. If you don’t want to miss an episode, consider signing up for the SubStack email version.
The planet’s wildlife populations have declined about 70% in the last 50 years. The UN released a 64-page report, “Mapping Environmental Risks and Socio-Economic Benefits of Planned Transport Infrastructure: A Global Picture”, measuring how new road & rail systems would impact the environment, national GDP, and more.
The United Nations Secretary-General has called humanity a “weapon of mass extinction” because of “our bottomless appetite for unchecked and unequal economic growth.” He made these comments at the COP15 “Convention on Biological Diversity” in Montreal. Yes, the UN was daft enough to call these conferences by the same exact name as the recently concluded COP~~out~~27 Conference in Egypt. COPe15 runs from December 7-19. Nothing substantial will be accomplished. Promises will be made, promises will be broken, and the world keeps turning and burning.
Iran claims to be abolishing its “morality police” after months of protest. The move is a tacit negotiation tactic with the protestors, but may prove to be too little too late. Once the flames take hold, smothering a fire becomes much more difficult. Other sources deny that the morality police have been totally shut down. Iran has blamed its historic enemies, the U.S. and Kurdish people. An Israeli intelligence analyst claims that the Iranian regime will survive these protests; do you agree?
China’s Yangtze River feeds into the mighty Three Gorges Dam, the largest dam in the world (based on installed electrical generation capacity). The reservoir levels are allegedly 17m (55 feet) lower than usual. If this continues, shit’s gonna get bad. And there are rivers that feed into Southeast Asia that China will not want to share equally. Like many civilizations, China built its strength on mastering its rivers—but it’s much harder to master a dry riverbed—or an angry population.
It will surprise nobody to hear that most of the world was drier in 2022 than in 2021. Europe is going to face a water crisis when its aquifers finish drying up ahead of schedule.
In one region of Kenya, when lakes disappeared, hundreds of thousands of people turned to well water. When the wells stopped producing water, people began relying on a network of 100+ water tankers, which drive to different communities and refill their wells. What will happen when the tankers run out of water—or petrol? Look to Somalia for the answer.
A right-wing conspiracy in Germany plotted to initiate a coup and install an old aristocrat in power. At least 25 people have been arrested. The conspirators also allegedly planned assassinations and intended to dismantle democratic institutions—although it is unclear how a plot of several dozen people actually expected to seize and hold power afterwards.
As the winter temperatures set in, the U.S. has encountered several attacks on parts of its energy grid, first in North Carolina, and then in Washington state and Oregon. American officials are hesitant to label these actions as terrorism or pin a motive to these attacks, though others are calling it right-wing terrorism.
After Peru’s “radical left” President Castillo declared the dissolution of Congress, Congress impeached and removed him on charges of rebellion, thereafter installing the Vice President in power. Castillo, a former peasant, won an incredibly narrow election last year, the results of which he claims Congress never fully accepted. Congress in turn accused him of corruption. A revolving door of cabinet officials and bureaucratic deadlock immobilized the government for months.
Less than half of the world’s population lives in democracies. ~~Only~~ Half of those democracies are in decline, due to a combination of factors, climate change, demographic pressures, declining economies, War, corruption, etc. Two weeks ago a Swedish think tank released a 64-page report: The Global State of Democracy 2022. The report concludes:

“Democracies are declining or stagnating in the face of a rapidly changing global context. Even countries previously considered ‘established’ democracies have vulnerabilities that cannot be ignored… democratic regimes have not convincingly made the case that they can deliver what people need…People’s faith in the importance and effectiveness of democratic institutions is thus decreasing…”

The ugly Collapse of Haiti continues. Indiscriminate killing, kidnapping, raping, and violence have gripped parts of the capital city, where ordinary people struggle with their day jobs and night terrors. Few dare to venture outside after dark. There are reportedly over 100 armed groups in Port-Au-Prince alone, and no single warlord commands authority. Trauma spreads like corruption. There is no accountability for the gangsters outside of internecine revenge killings.
The M23 gang operating in eastern Congo has allegedly slaughtered roughly 300 civilians. M23 denies the entire incident. The DRC has made accusations (supported by UN & US officials) that allege Rwanda supported the rebels and that M23 is recruiting child soldiers. The November ceasefire that was demanded has completely fallen apart, if it ever existed. A multinational armed force of several thousand peacekeepers (from Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, and South Sudan) are said to be going into eastern Congo soon (Kenya’s soldiers are already there). This could be the start of a Third Congo War...
Soyapango is a city of more than 300,000 inhabitants in El Salvador. The government has reportedly surrounded it with more than 10,000 agents/soldiers and blocked all entrance/exit routes to & from the city. The government’s intent: systematically clear the city of gangsters, house-by-house, block-by-block. Will it succeed, or are the challenges of modern urban warfare too great? How long will it take to find out?
As-Suwayda is a city in southern Syria with a pre-War population of 375,000. Hundreds of protestors stormed the governor’s office building and burned papers. Two people were killed, one policeman and one protestor. Nothing will fundamentally change. The Syrian Civil War will turn 12 years old in March.
Protestors attempted to storm the Government Palace in Ulaanbaatar, the capital of Mongolia. They were protesting corruption and profiteering within the coal industry, and the government more broadly. Although they tore down some fences and broke windows, they failed to gain access inside the Palace, and were forced back by security forces. Nobody was killed. Nothing will fundamentally change.
When humans fight, the consequences are spread across the natural world. Researchers estimate over 50,000 Black Sea dolphins were killed as a result of the Ukraine War. Russian sea mines, underwater explosives, and high power sonar slew the dolphins and other marine creatures.
As the deep freeze sets in in Eastern Europe, fighting in the Ukraine War is expected to cool off...or, rather, to take shape in another dimension. The tough winter will test the survival skills of Ukraine—and bring higher energy prices that test the resolve of many European countries. All the sides in this War need time to lick their wounds and restock their weapons, and brace for next year’s violence. President Zelensky and the “Spirit of Ukraine” have been named TIME’s Person of the Year for 2022.
The UK has approved its first new coal mine in 30 years, a result of economic incentives amid the Russian energy wars. Coal production from the mine in northwest England should be operational in about 18 months.
This winter will bring challenges to fuel-thirsty Europe, and much of the rest of the world. About 100 petrol stations have gone dry in South Korea, as a result of several thousand truckers going on strike. Panic-buying across Hungary has reportedly led to a quarter of its petrol stations going empty across the country.
Meanwhile, oil tankers are getting backed up off the coast of Türkiye, after the EU’s $60 price cap on Russian crude oil went into effect on Monday. Russia is trying to use a “shadow fleet” of uninsured tankers to circumvent the price cap, but western insurance companies are forbidden to insure Russian oil tankers unless they abide by the new price cap. Are we heading to a totally divergent, two-tier pricing system for crude oil? Both Ukraine and Russia vowed that the War would continue for a long time.
Global shipping rates continue to decline, a signal of economic recession. For many developing nations, this debt crisis could prove catastrophic.
More than half of France’s trains were canceled last weekend because of a worker strike. Pakistan’s economy is sagging into an emergency that some fear will leave it defaulting on its debt.
COVID-cautious people are being blamed for slowing the American economy, since they are staying home and/or social distancing. Yet COVID-uncautious people are being forced out by the millions after receiving debilitating Long COVID symptoms—or are dropping out of working society for other reasons. This Reddit thread details how 14% of the Swedish workforce has been knocked out from Long COVID. The comments are unsympathetic.
China is easing its COVID policy on public transportation, as a result of protests and a slow economy. Will mainland China face a healthcare disaster like Hong Kong if/when it withdraws its precautions ahead of the Chinese New Year—or will they maintain a tight grip on the pandemic despite easing up on a couple restrictions?
Landfills are supposedly responsible for one fifth of methane emissions. An Argentina-based landfill took measures to try to reduce CH4 emissions, but indicators suggest their efforts actually had no effect. The “urban mining” (scavenging from landfills) industry is looking promising for the near future, if you’re looking for a side hustle to stay competitive in this economy.
Monkeypox—or, rather, “mpox” as it was recently renamed—has faded from public dialogue as cases continue dwindling. Over one million Americans have now been vaccinated against monkeypox. The contagious illness is predicted to mostly disappear, although cases will pop up every now and then.
Iceland had a record hot November this year. Alaska’s northernmost settlement hit 40 °F (4 °C), breaking an all-time temperature record for November-March. This settlement’s average high temperature for December is 0 °F (-18 °C). Of all the previous host cities for the Winter Olympics, only one location (Sapporo, Japan) is expected to remain cold enough to host the Winter Olympics by 2100.
Devastating, deadly heatwaves are coming to India by 2030. By 2030, which means probably much earlier. There have always been some deaths due to heat waves, but when prolonged wet bulb temperatures combine with power outages caused by a lack of fuel, the heat deaths may become turbo-charged. Will anything change if a million people succumb to a month-long heatwave—or will we just grit our teeth and carry on? On second thought, don’t answer that…
Pakistan’s biodiversity has been damaged by its deadly & widespread floods earlier this year. Worldwide, insects are dying off due to climate change, chemicals, artificial light, industrial farming, etc. With more than one million identified insect species, insects comprise more than one third of all animal species.
Soil in the United States—and across all the industrially farmed world—is eroding at an unsustainable pace, 10 to 1000x faster than it can be produced. Over one third of soil on our planet is already degraded, and parts of Europe and the greater Sahel are being desertified as the temperature rises and the rains don’t fall. You probably didn’t know that World Soil Day occurred last week. Let’s observe a moment of silence for all our lost topsoil.
Things to watch for next week include:
↠ Clashes between the second- and third-largest ethnic tribes in South Sudan have broken a 4-year ceasefire in the region. UN Peacekeepers are useless to stop the fighting, which has displaced several thousand in the past weeks. Now there are concerns that an attack could be “imminent” on Kodok, a settlement (population: ~10,000) with a large number of displaced people.
↠ Serbia is considering sending 1,000 troops to Kosovo, but the UN will veto this deployment. Kosovo broke apart from Serbia in 2008, and it’s been recognized by about half of the world’s nations, including most of Europe—with the notable exceptions of Russia, and Serbia, which claims its territory as its own.
In a bit of good news for the Balkans, Croatia has been accepted into the EU’s free-movement Schengen Area, effective 1 January 2023.
Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:
-Poland is facing a price crunch for energy (and many other things), according to this weekly observation, full of citations (but they’re mostly in Polish). Poland is in the EU, but not the Eurozone. Also, Saudi ~~Arabia~~ Aramco bought a substantial stake in a Gdańsk oil refinery, Poland’s second largest.
-Do successive COVID infections wear down your immune system? This comment and its embedded article, suggest that it does. We still have a lot to learn about this mutating virus.
-They say that Collapse is local. It doesn’t get any more local than our interpersonal relations, which this thread laments have become irreversibly, terribly distorted. Hostility, aloofness, suspicion, many humans seem incapable of communicating healthily these days. Was it COVID that did this to us? Social media? Extreme politics/culture? Economic desperation? Or were humans always like this underneath our thin facade of civility & cooperation?
That’s all for this week. Got feedback, questions, comments, articles, riddles, recipes, hate mail, writing advice, podcast recommendations, death threats, etc.? Consider joining the Last Week in Collapse SubStack if you don’t want to check collapse every Saturday; you can get this newsletter sent to your email inbox every weekend. Starting in 2023, these newsletters will be released on Sunday, not Saturday. A few special end-of-year editions will be coming in the next few weeks, too. I always miss something; what did I miss this week?

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The poetry of my current circumstances was not lost on me. Indeed, this entire situation felt as if it had been orchestrated by some higher power, by some unseen machination which had effectively bound the fates of our two species in such a way that not even the cataclysmic force that was the Interlopers, or even the unfeeling and unrelenting passage of time could untether. It was, for lack of a better term, fate. It was fate that I had been assigned to the monitoring and studying of Earth and by extension a primordial state of humanity. It was fate that I had seen humanity grow into a burgeoning civilization, unbound by the influence and machinations of the Interlopers, free to expand uninhibited throughout the stars. It was also my fate to be saved by a human, not just once, not just twice, but a total of three times now. First by Elijah’s entry into my family’s hibernation vaults, then by Vir’s actions during our direct engagements with the Interlopers, and now… perhaps I’m getting a bit ahead of myself, but humanity has never once faltered in its resolve.
“Captain, I am afraid I can only speak to you as the last of my race, still free from Interloper control.” I began, delving into uncharted territory, running based entirely on assumptions and assertions based on what I’ve seen and heard so far. “In this respect I’m speaking to you in a rather precarious legal position. As I refuse to recognize whatever my kind’s bastardized administration currently is, and as I refuse to recognize the state which I previously belonged to given the nature of the extent of Interloper control. I understand, at least from my experience with Vanaran diplomatic officers, that speaking to an individual not belonging to any state in an official capacity brings with it a lot of legal baggage. I’d just like to be clear on this matter first before we proceed.”
The Captain’s response however was… rather unexpected as he gave a decidedly unexpected grin and a chuckle in response to my worries. “Mr. Daenir, the UN is the last organization to worry itself with those sorts of things. We may have been a lot more fixated on such finer details were in our prime prior to the divergence, but at this point it’s not our modus operandi to get wrapped up about these sorts of things. Though I’d have to say the Ascendancy is going to have a field day when they realize that first contact was conducted not just once by the UN, but twice now.” The man seemed to be relatively jubilant at that announcement as he then shifted his focus towards more pressing matters. Or rather, Vir started to shift the conversation to one that was more productive to our aims.
“I hate to interrupt this historic occasion, I really do, but I think we still need to clear the air on a few other issues.” He interjected.
“Alright we’re all ears.”
“Why are you hunting down this satellite?” Vir broached, which led to a reply that was decidedly simple and straightforward.
“It’s part of our mission profile. We’re part of the UN’s Long Range Reconnaissance and Intervention forces. The most recent developments in our backlog of studies involves the Hibernation Conduit project, whose promising research was alluded to time and time again, but the actual hard data of which is completely lacking. The only leads we have are on these nomadic satellites. We assumed that the research was for some reason backed up there, or would perhaps lead us to it. It seems as if we were right, in that respect.” The Captain chuckled. “It did lead us to what we were trying to track down. Or rather, it brought it right to us.”
Vir seemed satisfied with that answer as he threw yet another question out there, hungry for answers, and clearly taking this window of opportunity to get on top of the situation. “Your call sign indicates you’re part of the Science Advisory. SA ships aren’t armed, at least, back in my day they weren't. Is there a reason for you using this designation or are all SA ships now armed?”
“You’re right. Prior to the Second Interloper War, SA ships were strictly civilian. However, the war incurred the mobilization and militarization of all space assets within the United Nations. This included any and all civilian ships within the UN’s greater civilian command structure. This fact hasn’t changed, and given the nature of our missions deep into Interloper space, far beyond civilized UN or Ascendancy territory, being armed is just part of the job. In fact, the SA is now very much associated with running independent, long-range, scouting missions on behalf of the UN’s more established forces.”
Vir took a moment to consider his next words carefully. It was clear that most of the pressing questions had been asked, so what was left was to fill in the rest of the gaps.
“What’s the lay of the land? You said that the Ascendancy has most of the Milky Way and the rest of the local cluster galaxies under their belts. Does this mean the UN’s just a breakaway state with few assets or-?”
The Captain interjected before Vir could finish his question, his tone was terse, as if offended by Vir’s statements. “Son, I’m going to stop you right there. I think it’s more important that we get started on getting the Vanaran on board for an advanced check-up. Then we can continue our little chit-chats.”
“No.” Vir responded bluntly.
“Excuse me?”
“With all due respect sir, I want the full picture. No more hindrances, no more sitting in the dark and wondering about what’s out there. I want the full and unimpeded picture. Wouldn’t you want the same if you were in my position?” The AI was adamant on this, and this back and forth had clearly become a lot more heated than what I was expecting. This entire exchange had once again put me in an awkward position, as my heart raced in fear of what this bold attitude could incur.
The Captain’s begrudging sigh of approval however, was something that I half expected now, as it was once again abundantly clear to me that humans and their AI creations really were of an entirely alien social order from what I was used to. Indeed, it really did reaffirm one of the leading AI theories back home… that if an AI were to remain stable and cognizant, they would take up the mental and social characteristics of their creators.
“A full picture huh? Well, here’s a rundown as best as I can provide it.” Another ping echoed throughout the bridge, one that brought with it a holographic projection of the entire local cluster, which was colored in as the Captain spoke. “Out of the 30 galaxies in the local group the United Ascendancy controls 23 galaxies including the Milky Way. The UN controls enclaves within these 23 galaxies, which makes missions out and into Interloper space extremely difficult.” The UA was colored in a sort of turquoise blue, with specks of deeper blue circles and ovals scattered within these territories, illustrating just what the Captain had mentioned. “The interlopers control the entirety of rest of the 7 galaxies, including Andromeda.” The rest of the galaxies were now colored in red, indicating the Interlopers, but it was clear just how small their true extent actually was in comparison to the massive turquoise blue of the United Ascendancy. “We do however have a few extra-galactic bases set up around the borders of both the UA and the Interloper controlled puppet states.” More blue dots emerged, and the extent of the UN’s reach became increasingly clear. Whilst they weren’t a homogeneous mass like the UA was, they still had reach. With their technology being anything to go by, it was clear they had the technological advantage as well.
“So why haven’t you just marched in and dealt with the Interlopers?” I asked, surprising Vir once more, but he nodded in agreement regardless.
“The Interlopers we met had tech that was comparable, if not a bit more advanced than our ship. We managed to deal with them easily enough. Why haven’t you?” Vir added, to which the Captain let out a disappointed sigh of defeat.
“Because we don’t have the numerical abilities to do so. The Interlopers still have entire galaxies’ worth of bodies ready to overwhelm us. And with the UA refusing to intervene, and in fact taking up active measures of preventing our involvement. We really can’t do much but continue slashing away at Interloper influence, and even our efforts haven’t been that effective. We hold just a fraction of the military and industrial capacity that we had at our height. The technological advantage does give us a lot of room to work with, and the tactical advantage in any engagement. But as soon as you move into grand strategy, the numbers just don’t add up.” The Captain’s tone dipped for a moment, as if to emphasize his next point. “Besides, even if we did somehow ignore UA protectionist patrols, and managed to mobilize all forces deep into Interloper space, they still have their ace in the sleeve, the kill button that they threatened us with all those years ago.”
This fact alone sent shivers down my spine as I looked towards Vir with a look of utter terror.
“You mean to say that the hostage situation-”
“It’s much more than just that, Mr. Daenir. It’s a literal kill switch.” The Captain interjected, and spoke purposefully in no uncertain terms. “Trust me, if it wasn’t for this there wouldn’t have been any treaty. The fact of the matter is, they demonstrated to us just how willing they were to go through with this, and just how effective the switch really was… that’s the reason why the UA controls most of the galaxies now… it’s because after the war we moved into formerly occupied territories.”
Vir’s face said it all as he looked on at the galactic map in utter dread.
“By this point you might understand the extent of this bloodshed, Vir. The United Nations, prior to the second war, started out with just the Milky Way and 4 other galaxies under our control after all.”
It was only after this revelation did I stare at the map in complete disbelief. If that was true… then how close did the Vanaran civilization get to complete destruction at the hands of these monsters? My heart wrenched and twisted in place as both Vir and I said nothing, allowing the Captain’s words to echo through the room before finally, something else began to stir. An alarm blared, this time signaling the arrival of another ship as the Captain of the other vessel quickly pinged us once more.
“They found us. Listen, we don’t have much time. They’re generally on the lookout for ships with Grav-Drive engines, something that the interlopers do not possess. I think that should make you invisible to them, and even if it doesn’t… they won’t fire on you. They’re still bound by the cease fire so they’re really just looking for us.” The Captain spoke in a rapid-fire manner as a litany of alarms began blaring on the bridge, indicating to us that the hyper advanced ship was powering up.
“Wait, who? Who are you talking about Captain?” Vir shot back, as the Captain responded promptly.
“The United Ascendancy.” Veers responded, as sensors soon displayed something else entering the system. Something that shouldn’t even be possible. The size and scale of it tripped up multiple errors as it was clear that none of the sensors were capable of reading just what it was. To every single system, what appeared in the far corner of the system was nothing short of a celestial body. It wasn’t a ship, or even a station, nothing of that size had the capability to move, let alone travel between the vast expanses of space. Vir seemed to stand in place as it was clear his mind was at the helm of the ship and its sensors once more. The lack of any correspondence from him meant that this was serious, and just as the last of the errors were cleared, so too would the designation for the recent arrival be placed on screen.
This wasn’t a celestial body or some undetected planetoid.
It was a ship.
First | Previous | Next

(Author’s Note: More information and more expansion of the lore as well as a new unknown party thrown into the mix! The next chapter is already out on Patreon as well if you want to check it out! Here's my discord by the way in case you want to join our community and be part of the discussion! :D)
[If you guys want to help support me and these stories, here's my ko-fi ! And my Patreon for early chapter releases (Chapter 24 of this story is already out on there!)]

https://preview.redd.it/2ipcxmuhmg4a1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=2069814be932ddf8b869718661dea0d6310e186b
This article was taken from my blog www.trading-methods.com
In this article, I will show you the best swing trading indicators and how you can use them to trade for a consistent income.

How does Swing Trading work?

Let’s take a look at the swing trading method before we start the analysis. Swing Trading is a trading strategy that consists of different strategies and habits which share some common characteristics closely associated with the period in trading. While mainly used in forex and shares trading, crypto has the potential for other uses. Using swing trading you can have a position open for a few days/weeks if the trend continues to your advantage. The traders will likely close their positions if trends reverse themselves.

Table of content

Best Swing Trading Indicators

I have compiled the best swing trading indicators that stand out for their simplicity and efficiency of trading signals. However, it’s worth mentioning that they can by no means guarantee you constant profits. This is mainly due to the fact that technical indicators don’t predict the future, but help you to better understand the present and the past Here are the most popular and reliable technical indicators used in swing trading.
Swing Trading Works Before getting more in-depth with analyzing the best indicators for swing trading, let’s go back to the swing trading process. Swing trading is a trading style that comprises various strategies and behaviors that share some common aspects closely related to the time of a trade.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

The MACD is a trend indicator, i.e. it shows you when a trend change in a stock is imminent.
MACD is a momentum indicator oscillator.
Whether it’s going to break out to the upside or to the downside. When you first add the MACD to your chart, it looks like the picture below.

Now it’s important that you don’t change these settings unless you have a specific reason to do so. We know that swing trading and day trading are often about self-fulfilling prophecies. What I mean by this is that often many swings or day traders see the same pattern at the same time and use that pattern to enter the trade.
If enough traders do this at the same time, they create enough buying pressure to drive the stock higher and create a self-fulfilling feedback loop.
You should always use the default settings 12, 26, and 9 because the point of these indicators is that you see what everyone else sees too
let’s dive a little deeper into what the MACD actually is. The MACD calculates by subtracting the 26-EMA from the 12-EMA (exponential moving average) and creating a constantly updated line that resembles a moving average).

Swing trading indicators

Also, a 9-day EMA add to the MACD line to indicate buy or sell signals. The most common way to use MACD as a swing trading indicator is to look for divergences or a crossing of the center line of the histogram.
At least, in theory, MACD indicates buying opportunities when it crosses above zero,
when it crosses below zero it indicates selling or shorting opportunities.
if you’re looking for a simple swing trading strategy for beginners, you can essentially wait for the red bars to cross and become green bars, then enter a trade and buy when that happens.
it shows you that the stock has a lot of power and momentum.

What does the MACD tell you?

The MACD consider one of the best swing trading indicators, but you need to understand how to use it and what it tells you.
I see a lot of people using it in a way that’s too simple
if it was as simple as I just described it.
if it was as simple as I just described it and you just bought a stock every time it changed from red to green, we’d all be billionaires right now.
That’s not the case, of course.
So what the MACD tells you from a more advanced perspective is that it tells you the change in momentum of a stock.
when the Moving Average Convergence Divergence shows the difference between a 12-period moving average and a 26-period moving average), it’s always greater than zero.
it’s just telling you that the most recent asset’s price change, the 12-day price movement,
is stronger than the 26-day price movement before that, so simply put, it’s showing you that the stock is gaining momentum.
Recent asset’s price action is stronger than in the past, if the green bars keep growing and getting bigger,
it shows you that the stock is getting even stronger and the momentum for swing trading is increasing,
i.e. that you can catch the momentum.
this is really one of the best swing trading indicators I use regularly.

Is MACD good for swing trading?

Moving average convergence varies between trading platforms. This tool helps identify new patterns of behavior, be that bullish or bearish. Because the trading of the trend is the most important strategy.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The next swing trading indicator discussed in this article is the relative strength index (rsi).
The RSI developed by J. Wells Wilder is actually a momentum oscillator that simply measures the speed and change of price movements.
Swing traders prefer this indicator because it quickly detects a trend, the overbought and oversold levels. The rsi traditionally fluctuates between 0 and 100. the rsi is considered overbought when it’s above 70 and oversold when it’s below 30. Signals are generated by looking for divergences and breakdowns.
RSI can use to identify the general trend

UP Trend

In an uptrend or bull market, the RSI tends to stay in the 40 to 90 range, with the 40 to 50 range typically acting as support.

Down Trend

During a downtrend or bear market, the rsi tends to stay between 10 and 60, with the 50 or 60 zones serving as resistance.
These ranges vary depending on your settings and the strength of the underlying trend of the stock or market.
Usually, people use RSI as a kind of warning sign: If the stock is very high,
it probably can’t go any higher because it’s overbought.
On the other hand, if the RSI of a stock is super low, say at 20 or 30,
then the RSI is so oversold that it may be wise to buy the stock before the reversal.
A better way to use the RSI is to look for discrepancies between the indicator and the actual price movement of the stock.

RSI discrepancy

A Relative strength index discrepancy occurs when a stock price rises but the rsi falls. It can also occur the other way around when a stock price is falling and the rsi is rising.
This discrepancy in the rsi of the stock price is a pretty strong signal that something isn’t quite right.
if the price of stock continues to rise, but the rsi, which actually measures the momentum indicator,
is falling, this trend obviously cannot continue.
RSI uses volume and buying pressure to predict fluctuations and momentum.

Volume weighted average price (VWAP)

The next technical indicator we’ll look at is the VWAP.
One of the best indicators to learn is, It’s usually used for day trading,
but I also use it regularly for swing trading.
the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) is a trading indicator calculated by multiplying the number of shares purchased by the share price and then dividing by the total number of shares purchased.
basically, it shows the average price of a stock based on the volume traded at a given price. It’s usually calculated and displayed on your chart within a one-day time frame and looks similar to a moving average), although it’s a much slower and lagging indicator.

Many swing traders use the strategy of buying the stock if it closes the day above the VWAP,
and selling or shorting the stock if it closes the day below the VWAP.
As a swing trading indicator, it’s important to understand swing trading indicators that the VWAP often acts as a support and resistance level.
When it acts as a support line, it means that stock often falls to the VWAP,
hits the outlook up, then bounces off it and goes back up, finding support at that line.
On the other hand, if a stock is trending up, it’ll sometimes go up to the VWAP, but then not be able to break through it
If a stock is above the VWAP for an extended period of time,
that’s a very good sign of strength and could be an indication that we should buy the stock for a swing trade if there are also other positive indicators that we can use.

Simple moving averages (SMA)

A simple moving average) is a technical indicator or tool,
that tracks the price of a security over a period of time and plots it on a line.
This essentially “smooths out” price fluctuations, giving an investor a general idea of where the trend is going.
Using simple moving averages to determine trends can help an investor better identify buy and sell signals.
To create a simple moving average chart, first, choose a time frame. A frame can be any period of time – such as a day, a week, or even a month. For this example, we define a time period as a day.
We create a moving average using a 20-day chart. We take the prices of each day and add them together. Then we divide that number by our time frame, which in this case is 20.
This gives us today’s 20-day average price,
which is a short-term moving time frame that can be used by active traders.
To create a moving average, each day we omit the last day in the time frame and add today.
A 20-day moving average can help determine short-term uptrends, downtrends, and sideways trends.
By looking at a security’s moving average in relation to its current price, you can identify potential buy signals.

SMA Example

For example, if a price breaks an upward-moving average, it could mean it’s a good time to buy a stock.
Another buy signal could be a support bounce.
This is when the moving average of a security serves as a support level for the price.
If the price falls to the moving average and then rises again, this can be used as a buy signal.
Conversely, moving averages can help investors identify when to sell a position.
For example, if the price of a stock rises to the moving average and then bounces back, this can be a sell signal.
Looking at a simple moving average over a short-term time frame can be very helpful, but it also has its drawbacks.

SMA Whipsaws

One thing to be aware of is whipsaws. A whipsaw is when the stock crosses the moving average, which gives a signal, and then quickly reverses, which gives the opposite signal.
A short-term time frame, such as 20 days, usually indicates more swings, which is why some investors prefer to use medium- and long-term time frames.
For example, medium-term charts with a 50-day SMA show a smoother average and have fewer buy and sell signals.
As a result, investors can stay in a trade longer. Long-term trends, like those of a 200-day SMA, are even smoother.
Consequently, these types of moving average lines react quickly to the price changes of securities.
This is helpful for active traders who want to place short-term trades.
It’s also important to know that moving averages don’t predict future trends but only confirm established trends.
Despite these drawbacks, moving averages are a powerful technical analysis tool that you can use to determine trends and identify buy and sell signals.

Understanding the limitations of swing trading indicators

The indicators for trading in this article are a good starting point. Trading indicator indicators aren’t superior to most technical analyses and are never considered the holy grail. It cannot guarantee that the profits that are produced by trading indicators will be rewarded. These are some factors that affect a trader’s success in swing trading.
Swing traders operate with larger timeframes, they are not interested in short-term price volatility the same as day traders do. For swing traders, the only thing that matters is that swing highs go higher in a bullish market while swing lows go lower in a bearish market.

Final Thoughts

I have highlighted some of the best indicators for swing trading in this article.
Within the context of financial markets, Price patterns and trends based on historical performance are then used to identify signals according to things like market sentiment and psychology.
Most traders use swing trading as their most common trading style along with day trading and position trading.
It is usually used in the daily chart and larger timeframes. For beginners, this trading style is less intimidating as it’s less hectic than day trading but comfortable enough to profit from price fluctuations. Traders who prefer this type of trading style usually rely on swing trading indicators, as it’s important for them to show the support and resistance levels when the trend changes.

The End game has begun. Stagflationary 1972-73 Price pump or Deflationary 2008 bust.? I am prepared for both ;)

Disclaimer :
Apologies beforehand for a lot of verbose because of the final newsletter. For quick read up i suggest reading "Tl;dr section" ( headings ) and for the reasons behind it are included in the detailed "Experiment section".

Intro:

“I felt a great disturbance in the force as if millions of voices slowly and wildly got together and then there was an uprising against the government and the financial institutions”

Sorry guys, I was supposed to send this the day before yesterday ( great movie ) but unfortunately I got caught up in a celebration we are having over here.
So it's the start of the weekend. Y’all know what that means. I'm not talking about having a party lol, that is for me. You guys have to decipher this long post so that you can protect yourself from the upcoming danger that I am seeing. In short you’re fucked if you don’t read this especially institutions and hedge funds. Just for this week please avoid strip clubs. This one's for you guys because you read my post. ( I like to think so )
Retail public especially retards i don’t have words for you guys. You guys can chill this weekend because all you do is sh9t on my post. Might as well sh9t on this too. I don’t care since all you’re obsessed with is Ryan Cohen and $BBBY. So when you’re finally over him after getting drunk this weekend then you can go ahead and read this post. Could be worth your time.

As for people asking me why I don't give my opinions regarding meme stocks. Well folks the reason is simple. We are still in a bear market according to my calculations. So it's written somewhere in the gospel of investing that bear markets are the opportunities to analyze value companies, not meme companies which are about to be purge in the upcoming mega crash as an offering to please the gods of stock market.
Yes you “You-tube” folks the crash hasn’t even started yet. We still have -53% to go from here till March 2023 as my base case. Don't even ask me about my worst case. For that just open the Dow Jones 1929-1932 chart.

Tl;dr and Td;du folks : ( Too long didn't read, Too dumb didn’t understand )
We have already discussed this : Buy 4 months/2 months/1 months puts i.e Dec 30/Oct 29/Sept 29 at the money with strike price near about "200 day moving average = 200dMA" in $SPY last week of august if it comes.
It already did one time on August 16 and i think the top is already in. So you’re gonna profit regardless.
Invalidation would be three white soldier candles above 200dMA of course in daily chart. For positions go scroll down. ( I will make you work for it at-least. xD )

We have a long way to go friends.

Now for those folks who want a detailed explanation about everything let’s dive in.
Respected Traders and Investors,

How are you guys doing? It’s been a long time hasn’t it. God I was gone for a while and had Ni-san use my Reddit account for a few days. First of all, I'm gonna apologize for the Shzio post by my brother Itachi. Man, it felt like it messed up my brains for a while there. It was so damn trippy. So I highly highly advise you guys not to go and read it a second time. Please, it's for your own health.
Regardless i love my brother analysis coz he thinks like no other normal people do in the world of trading/investing. So, I take full responsibility for my actions and if things don't go as planned out in the above charts ( i.e the mega crash doesn’t happen you know ) then you’re not gonna hear from us.
P.s. We promised you that we will do these posts only in bear markets. Even if the USA goes into depression for 10 to 15 years we will post in a week or two until we visit ath ( all time high ) once again. One may ask why not do this stuff in the bull market? Guys you have to understand we are not bull market specialists. For bull markets it's generally advised to follow moon boys on twitter, tik-tok, You-tube etc. They are more educated and well informed than us in that department with a huge audience behind them. ( They spend so much on marketing lol )

Recap : Predictions 2022 so far.
I don’t usually like to do this because my readers already know about this but it’s time to back-test how accurate we ( i.e. me and my brother ) have been this whole time especially to show random people who are new to reading these kinds of posts especially when it’s season finale.

We predicted the March 16 post Fomc rally.

https://preview.redd.it/6n7xv1xs52j91.png?width=1851&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef518b9218d0bc29d830fc61927009ece8a66438

We predicted the April top. Thought it was gonna last two to three days more but it lasted just one.

https://preview.redd.it/ictvxtex52j91.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=1905d15b9028016b853e12dd817097c285d2eac7

Then we predicted June Fomc bottom which we already mentioned in our first letter. Does “Dante cash deployment $SPX $3600-3700 at trend based 1 fib” ring a bell. ( But then later i said to just sell above 2% because Cpi 8.8% est and Atlanta Fed Gdp -2.1% est scared the sh9t out of me and i changed my strategy from "Riding to the top of the Bear market rally" to "Shorting at the top of bear market rally" )

https://preview.redd.it/brojy4p462j91.png?width=743&format=png&auto=webp&s=a96db2532fe7643a3b03e3f2293102e8c28a06e2

And now we finally did the same for August top at 15/16 i.e. 200dMA/ 50-61.8% fib retrace which is just a follow up to above June Fomc bottom. post.

https://preview.redd.it/da60ccei62j91.png?width=818&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce9e342a4a1f31b7ed9cd4931c8511bdd9368ae5

And then there were bond, commodity, Dxy calls that we are not even mentioning.
What this all means is that the stock markets have been performing as we had hoped for since February which is like 6-7 months ago. So i guess we are not a broken clock and actually do provide the exact days or should i say the time horizon.

Am I a member of secret society i.e. "Illuminati” or have contacts in "Pay pal mafia" ?
No guys. I am not a member of secret society nor do i have any contacts. My brother do though. I do want to manage the portfolio of wealthy clients like my brother someday but I'm too lazy. I just want to take bets and watch anime and Tv shows my entire life. I just finished West world and now i guess i will watch episode 1 of “House of dragons”. ( Why did that producer said bad things about Emilia. Hmm ) As for anime recommendation man its getting hard to find good ones. I'm just waiting for Chainsaw man now.

About my self.
Before all of this I was a Computer Science student whose only good skill was learning a hybrid application development platform called Flutter ( By Google ) but now I just write detailed and boring posts on Wall Street bets about anything that comes to my mind for you guys. My predictions come right because of you folks so thank you for taking trades and also I just basically copy pasted 2008 charts ( 32nd death week ) like I do with Git-hub while programming.

Now will I be wrong in the future?
Of course I will be. I’m no economist. I just make cases i.e stock market = 1972-73 or 2008 and just bet on them. Also a big hedge fund guy might find my post someday and take the opposite trade against me wrecking people who followed my advice.
Hence i always tell you guys “Do your own research“ “This is not financial advice” even though it will be right most of the time. You absolutely should not follow anybody w/o checking out at-least 10 other guys.

Why take my advice ?
So now that we have cleared some of the confusion which I couldn't in my Wsb guest talk appearance you might be thinking why we should even consider your advice in the top 10 folks we watch. You’re a nobody. Well folks in my defense i would say it's because I gradually improved myself. Earlier my posts were shitty but now they are getting better especially my T.A. And I'm also learning economics day by day. Do you know guys I didn't wanted to write this as final post coz I was actually busy working on other post like “Deciphering Stagflation 70's” and “Thermodynamics in Economics” as my farewell post. Yes it's true guys the US economy is one giant open system. That’s how Elon Musk and Jerome Powell do calculations about economics. xD
Well enough spoilers about the next season. I know you guys are getting bored. So lets now finally jump in what i wanted to actually talk about.

Experiment :
Deriving conclusions about Nasdaq, S&P500 and rest other asset classes using other asset classes on weekly and monthly charts. I know it sounds insane right now but you will see. So just trust me on this. (My grammar is so poor)

Tools :”
I mean the Technicals i will be using today includes :
-> Candle sticks
-> Elliot wave with Fibonacci
-> Stochastic Rsi
-> My favorite which never ever lies : Pvt(O)
-> At last my “Ketlner channels”

Procedure :

Step 1 : Forex Markets

Eur-usd

Eur-usd : Have you ever seen such a bearish chart in your life both on a weekly and monthly basis? I mean as much as I love European countries but I have to say your Eur-usd charts sucks equally much. Putin owns you guys this winter. Italy and Germany are already suffering so much with 10x bills gas + electricity if compared with 2021 so i can't even imagine about countries like Spain, Greece etc. Okay so I'm gonna stop myself now with the pessimism and dive into Technicals.

Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )

Eur-usd bull traders have to stop this deadly weekly close otherwise the whole world is f’ed.
Elliot wave C wants to go 1.618 i.e. 0.924.
Stochastic RSI are about to cross weekly and go down.
Pvt(O) if it crosses the blue line and heads down means game over.’
We aren’t even testing the Ketlner red upper band. That’s how bearish we are.

Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )

Eur-usd bull traders couldn't stop monthly support i.e 1.03. Rejected it, retested it from below and rejected it again. The double top at 1.24 was deadly too coz you know when we break the support at 1.03 you go down equally much. Hence those red vertical lines.
Elliot wave C wants to go 1.618 i.e. 0.81487 so is 0.834 vertical red line support.
Stochastic RSI is in deep water. You ain't coming out of there any time soon before weekly readjusts.
Pvt(O) wants to do nothing and stay flat for a while.
We are hanging on the Ketlner upper red band.

Result : I can confidently say with 1000% certainty that Eur-usd is going down. Thank you madam Lagarde. You’re doing such a fine job by selling German Bund and buying Italian bonds. Congratulations to you and your PEP tool (Lol, guys this woman is bat-sh9t crazy)

Gbp-usd

Gbp-usd : Well first Sir Mr Bailey. I have to say I'm a big fan of your honesty if you are reading this. I mean in today's world it's hard to find someone that honest in a government job. So guys we know inflation is double digit’s over here ( heading to 13% or was it 15% in coming months ) and in September the Bank of England is going with 50 bps. So we already know that Uk is gonna have more than 2Q of -ve Gdp. I hope you Uk folks survive considering you're gonna lose jobs, probably go into economic depression because recession is everybody’s base case even of Mr Bailey. So enough details let’s do analysis.

Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )

Gbp-usd is in a huge IHS pattern but that doesn’t mean it will go to the upside that easily. Currently the price is testing right shoulder at 1.19. If it breaks then the price will test the head 1.14 and if it doesn’t break and holds then the price will go to 1.42 to test the neckline. After that we shall see whether the IHS breaks or not. Also the volume is supporting the down move.
There is no Elliot wave here. But the key thing to note is that if 1.14 breaks then you’re heading to 0.87 levels. Reason being two vertical red lines should be equal.
Stochastic RSI has crossed weekly and is about to go down.
Pvt(O) if it crosses the blue line and heads down means game over. If it doesn’t break only then you have a chance of at-least going to the neckline.
The price action has occupied the whole Ketlner red band. Meaning we are in a bearish downtrend.

Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )

Just remember we are in the box lock of 1.14 to 1.42 range. The increasing volume is also supporting this downwards move. If i don't take any wicks into consideration then it looks like the price has broken 61.8% fib and would likely head downwards to 1 fib cause there is no support of candle closing. So watch out for monthly close here as well and an eye on higher high volume. Also don't forget those red vertical lines. 1.72 - 1.42 , 1.42 - 1.14, so 1.14 - XXX. Do the math.
12345 was completed in Oct 2007 ( Yah that old ) From then we are in the ABC corrective wave. Elliot wave C is still deciding what’s gonna happen with IHS. If it breaks down you’re looking at 0.95.
Stochastic RSI is in deep water. You ain't coming out of here any time soon.
Pvt(O) wants to do nothing and stay flat.
We are hanging on the Ketlner red upper band.

Result : I can confidently say Gbp-usd is going down. Mr Soros if you’re listening to this, let's break the “Bank of England” once again. Just for good old times sake.

Usd-Jpy

Usd-jpy : If i tell you anything about this forex pair I’m probably Bs’ing you. It’s true guys. Even Mr Kuruda the governor of Boj doesn’t know where the Usd-jpy is gonna go. But what we can speculate is if the dollar becomes so much stronger due to the weakness in the Eur-usd equation then Dxy is gonna pump past 110 and the dollar becomes stronger. Got it. So I could easily play this approach into my thesis by telling you yes this pair is just gonna go up. But I will not do that. Instead I'm gonna play a devil’s advocate here saying Usd-jpy will go down. So let’s analyze things which are a total waste of your and my time because I'm gonna reverse this forex you will see how.

Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )

Traders watch the 136. It’s a critical resistance. A clean break of it would mean 148 otherwise we go 125.
Elliott wave 12345 is complete at 136 and now we go for the ABC corrective wave. A will hit you at 116 and the rest is just a made up wave.
Stochastic RSI is on bottom and will go up.
Pvt(O) too looks like it could go up.
Here in this Ketlner channel we are hanging on a lower green band. That’s how bullish we are but I have chosen to take the bear case.

Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )

Traders watch the monthly close. If it closes above 136 we go to 148 otherwise down.
Elliott wave 12345 is complete at 136 wave. Entire ABC is made up because it all depends on the monthly close.
Stochastic RSI is on top flying and looks overbought but who can argue with their unlimited bond buying which in turn has caused the parabolic move.
Pvt(O) too looks like it could touch the blue line. If it crosses we fall, if not we go up.
Here in this Ketlner channel we are on an upper green band. That’s how extremely bullish we are but I have chosen to take the bear case.

So since I took the bear case it doesn't look like any bearish to me. Don't you agree? So our devil in devil’s advocate looks weak. So to fit our thesis lets reverse this. This is kinda like physics or Math kind of stuff where we proof things by assuming inverse.

Result : I cannot confidently say but I will say Jpy-usd is going up to 148 at my favorite dot com times where Dxy went 120. Hence i’m selling my Yen trust with ticker $FXY.

Step 2 : DXY. A basket of forex currencies.

You must be wondering, I'm gonna introduce another colorful RGB crayon drawing chart on both weekly and monthly. Sorry to disappoint you folks but I'm not doing that. Instead let’s use our brains.
We know that US dollar Index i.e. Dxy is used to measure the value of the dollar a/g basket of 6 currencies. The Euro, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, British pound and Swedish krona. Now I'm not gonna explain you here why dollar is global reserve currency or dollar has more liquidity so let’s just assume that.

So what happens now is when Eur-usd becomes weaker, investors usually go risk off and buy the safest asset in the world i.e Dollar. Hence the Dxy goes stronger which suggests the dollar is getting stronger coz european buddies will exchange for dollars coz its very liquid and due to interest rate differentials. ( Remember Gbp-usd is an exception to interest rate differential coz what's happening over there is interest rates will go up but their currency is still losing its strength )

We have discussed a thesis in past letters already and came to a conclusion and I quote.
“Eur-usd is a mirror image of the Dxy chart.” Remember this for your lifetime. Especially you Gen-z.

I wasn’t gonna post a chart but then I realized I should for new folks who are lazy to read past posts. Eur-usd breaks parity and goes 0.80 levels Dxy will be 120 for sure. In monthly Dxy is super bullish. And on a weekly basis it's trying to close above 107 i believe. Hence your Voldemort asset class dropped -8% i guess. Right ?

Mirror chart : DXY vs Eur-usd

Result : I can confidently say Dollar or DXY is getting stronger in comparison to Euro, Gbp and Jpy. Hence DXY to 120 is back on the table according to the “20yrs of wyckoff accumulation” pattern. If you cleanly break 110-112 i must say equities especially the Spx is gonna visit to my $3200 level.
Now some Cnbc or Bloomberg guys who stole my research and didn’t gave me credit 2-3 months ago used to come on tv and say things like “Oh in 2018 Spx visited 200wMA so it makes sense that this cycle which is even more tightening compared to last makes sense to visit this range.”
So folks now the Spx has shifted its 200wMA/50mMA = $3500-$3600. But these clowns oops economists don't know that we should take a look at the monthly chart. Once you open that. Your pants are about to drop coz in the last tightening we visited not 200wMA but 100 monthly moving average i.e 100mMA. Yeah let’s go visit makachev vs oliviera in oct 23rd ufc 280. So if we cross paths over there I will tell you we are going to Spx $2873 i.e. somewhere around $2800-2900 which my close friend Dr Burry suggested too. Hence he sold + he is shorting coz he has relieved every moment in 2008. So he knows what’s coming next. You guys don’t.

Step 3 :Eur-usd Implied Fed funds 100-CME:GEZ2023 ( Not gonna use Elliot wave + Fib trend starting here now )

This is like gonna be super high level stuff even far above my pay grade. Only Zoltan can explain this using repo markets but since he is busy I will try to explain it in a funny way. So if you might have watched Cnbc this past week two economists were arguing about how Fed funds have priced in 4% already but one might be saying no it has only priced in 3.4-3.5%. So who is right?

If you watch “Everything money” by my suggestion then Mo came to the conclusion that the reason he is saying 4% is because the Fed is doing QT + rate hikes which Mo still does not believe.

So who is right and what is the right explanation for 4% ?
Imo they both are right but the explanation is wrong. The reason one should present about the 4% Fed funds argument is that in Eur-usd implied Fed funds went to 4%. Hence the market has priced 4% in the euro dollar banking system. But if you take only the dollar banking system in Usa then we look at yields of 2 yr and 10 yr which are hinting that Fed funds 3.4-3.5% is already priced in by the markets.

Eur-usd implied Fed funds.

Monthly and weekly time frame analysis :

Both look strong on a monthly and weekly basis. If monthly candle closes above resistance i.e. 3.50 this month then we are looking past 4% Eur-usd implied fed funds
Stochastic Rsi on weekly and crossed and is heading up while on monthly they are about to cross and hover above for a while.
Pvt(O) on weekly looks promising as compared to monthly.
Both of them don’t wanna lose their lower green Ketlner band.

Result : I can confidently say that we are going up here technically. So J. Powell, could you please back me up on this. Zoltan agrees with me. Snyder doesn’t.
( Just remember implied fed funds can go up due to Eur-usd weakness. So its kinda like indirect interest rate hike for markets. Add QT on top of that. Hence Fed is dovish in Fomc minutes for rate hikes )

Step 4 : HYG & LQD : The corporate bonds

HYG

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Weekly time frame analysis :

Weekly is gonna print bearish engulfing candle. Also there is a volume divergence. Price going up but volume going down which leads to fall. Trend line break candles will be the nail on the coffin.
Stochastic Rsi on weekly crossed and now are heading down.
Pvt(O) on weekly is also done after releasing supply and now will head down to accumulation..
Ketlner middle line changing band rejected the price action suggesting bearish continuation.

Monthly time frame analysis :

Monthly rejected its previous to previous top of the candle and is gonna print another st. down red monthly. Again price ascending volume declining.
But interestingly stochastic Rsi on monthly going up..
Pvt(O) on monthly also about to cross its blue line later sometimes.
As for Ketlner, well it's pretty much occupying the entire red lower band.

LQD : I leave it up to you guys. Cmon at least do one.

Result : I cannot confidently say that we are going down on a monthly time frame ( i need to see more data ) but yah sure on weekly we are going down because of that deadly candle that folks have been talking about.

Step 5 : IEI/HYG : Government bond price / Corporate bond price.

IEI/HYG : Double check below thing.

IEI/HYG : If it goes up then credit spreads are widening. ( Bad thing i.e risk off )
IEI/HYG : If it goes down then credit spreads are tightening. ( Good thing i.e. risk on )

Weekly time frame analysis :

Weekly is about to print a bullish engulfing candle. Also volume isn’t supporting downwards move i.e. price is going down but volume is going down as well.
Stochastic Rsi on weekly crossed and now are heading up.
Can't comment about Pvt(O) weekly. Mixed signals
Ketlner middle line changing band supported the price action and is green. Meaning bullish continuation

Monthly time frame analysis :

No complete data on monthly that we can make assumptions.
But stochastic Rsi crossed on monthly and suggested going down.
Pvt(O) flat.
As for Ketlner, well we had rejection from an extremely bullish green band i.e. we haven't gotten permission for capitulation but we got support from middle Ketlner to make the price go up again.

Result : I cannot confidently say that we are going up on a monthly time frame ( i need to see more data ) but yah sure on weekly we are going up.

Step 6 : ( Super scary ) : Velocity of m2 or m1 money supply i.e v = us gdp / m1 or m2.

Velocity of M2

This is a very debatable topic. Only the pros have the right to argue about this stuff and no one else. Peter lynch once told me during my time travel visit that people worry that the velocity of money supply is going up way too fast then we are gonna have depression and if the velocity of money supply goes down then too we are gonna have depression. So which one is it?

Anyways Q3 2020 : 1.149 was the highest reading. Currently we are trying to break it. Q2 2022 : 1.147

"The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy. This is called an expanding economy." ~ By Fred website.

So go out there and ask your banking friends and tell them please explain the concept of money supply in today's terms. Not an old term. So I too went to my brother for advice. He told me “ F off “

Result : “F off”

Step 7 : Gold

We are not gonna do weekly and monthly time frame analysis on this. Some of you guys may be like “Dude, I'm an old man with agricultural land. I wanna own gold like my ancestors from 18th century coz i believe in stagflation, parabolic move, end of the world, negative debasement hedge blah blah” So i need charts.

Old man's Gold :
Old man you need to chill. We are gonna use our brain like Peter Schiff. So we know, gold doesn't love that his nemesis dollar is going up. Now if you can tell me how high Dxy will go up then i can tell you that the top of Dxy will be the bottom of Gold. Also gold doesn’t love financial crisis or bank runs. In my world gold is a phoenix who rises from ashes. Meaning if we plunge into the abyss then gold is gonna drag us out of there first. Then indices move and other asset classes.

Digital Gold :
As for young folks, you love the King of Voldemort asset class don’t you? So go buy it at amazon bottom i.e. $4-5k or my favorite Richard heart level -83% i.e 10,690. Or if you really don't have the patience like probably 99% of the entire world population you buy some % of this commodity for whatever reasons these guys are selling you at $20k. I shall rest my case now.

Result : Dollar i.e. Dxy up = Gold down and vice versa.

Step 8 : TLT/JNK : It’s kinda like IEI/HYG

Can you guys do this please?
Hint : Bullish divergence on weekly and monthly. Meaning TLT ( 20yr treasury bond etf by black rock ) buying over Junk bonds i.e. JNK

Step 9 : US Oil.

Let's go Brandon and the government. Just how much are you gonna manipulate the best inflation hedge alive. You guys have already killed my Gold. Yes you J.P. Morgan traders, I hate you. May your bank dies in upcoming crash and have Panic of 2023 just like Knickbocker crisis in 1907. Only then I shall have my vengeance a/g those rumors you circulated back in the days.
So guys you probably would know this that our Usa Government try to manipulate oil market just to please people and ask for votes. These are some of their stupid tactics.

Releasing SPR ( i.e. Strategic petroleum reserve ) in the market.
Pressurizing Saudis to find oil. ( Btw Saudi Armaco alone made profits greater than all Usa mega cap tech combined )
Windfall taxes on Oil companies.
Distributing E.V. credits to people. But even E.V. companies are smart. They instead increase their price. Ford I mean what the f you guys are doing.

This is the most manipulated market I have ever seen in my 100 yr+ of lifetime. So traders if your conclusion from my above observation was that we should short Oil lemme tell you something in double quotes.
“Be afraid of Putin’s Winter Oil boogeyman”. "Contango is a dangerous thing that futures creates"

You don’t short Oil in winter. Period. Heck you shouldn’t even trade Oil. Only the expert can do this because it's called “Widow Maker” i.e. the losses in this commodity trading could be catastrophic planetary devastation like.

Tip : Btw currently oil is in downwards wedge and it could break to upside and we go up in winter but Oil too like gold doesn't love Dxy going up. So kinda mixed signals i guess. Let's see who shall prevail bulls or bears of oil.

Result : Dollar i.e. Dxy up = Oil down and vice versa but Winter is coming/ Contango = Maybe Oil up.

Step 10 : Powell curve i.e.10 yr - 3 month, 2 yr - 3 month ( Pvt(o) and Elliot wave doesn't work here )

Do you guys remember the talk we had with Powell earlier this year when he was trying to explain us that the inversion of the 10 yr - 2 yr curve doesn't mean anything and unless the near term curve inverts it's all okay. Well folks Powell near time curves are close to getting inverted. Therefore you’re seeing these Fed officials talk dovish recently. Coz if they invert Fed will lose their remaining 0.0000001% credibility. So let’s analyze them on a weekly time frame because on a monthly time frame they look super super bearish to me and there is no chance that the curve won’t invert at some point later on.

J Powell/ Fed Curves : Us10y-Us03m , Us02y-Us03m

Weekly time frame analysis :

The current weekly candle in both curves are going to close lower than previous week which could suggest further downside risk.
Stochastic Rsi on 10yr-3m looks flat dead whereas on 2yr-3m it looks like it is rising.
MacD in both of them is showing us that the downwards declining move is losing its strength.
As for Ketlner, well in both of them they are staying in the lower red band suggesting they are still in a bearish trend.

Larry Summers former Fed chairman came recently to Bloomberg saying that the Fed has shown in latest minutes that they don’t even know what they are doing. Hence they Bs’ing us in their statement. I mean guys just read these hawkish and dovish points yourself. Also do check out the hidden statements in minutes which are pieces of advice for billionaires about liquidity and t-bills. Don’t forget my warning about bank runs. They are coming. My bet is Well’s Fargo Oct 2022/23 = Lehman brothers Oct 2008 or you could also go with lowest read by a bank in Fed stress test.

Hawkish vs Dovish vs Billionaire's ( Highlighted in blue ) Fed minutes.

As for individual bonds and overall yield curve :

Bonds :

Well 10 yr yields looks so good on both weekly and monthly time frame. So we go up in yields.
2 yr yields look so good on weekly and waiting for monthly close making it bullish. Meaning on September Fed is gonna be dead. ( Yields will rise meaning bond prices go down with stocks )

Note : Once again i'm telling yields is going up due to Eur-usd down i.e. Dxy up and markets front running 95B/m QT. We are quite unsure about rate hikes coz its nearly 50-50 b/w 50 and 75 bps. It will all depend on Cpi and Jobs data in September.

Institutions and Hf’s are also buying Chinese bonds like crazy or maybe Chinese themselves because of fear of recession and growth slowdown i.e. flight to safety trade. They have deflationary recession but the thing is they have balance sheet recession. So their government is creating a liquidity trap by cutting rates. But don't forget they can always do exuberance amount of liquidity coz they have very less inflation. In Usa you're getting rekt in both stocks and bonds.

Yield curve :

As for the entire yield curve here look at these beauties that Powell has created in these charts.

Credits : Eurodollar University. By Jeff Snyder

Note : Yield should be higher if the time horizon is higher. Meaning shorter end like 2 yr to 5 yr should yield less than 10 yr and 20 yr normally due to unknown risks associated in far future. But look here in these charts. A 52 w t-bill is yielding more than 20 yr and 10 yr bonds. That’s insane. It tells us there is a danger in next 1-2yrs as compared to far in future. The curve has gone banana's b/w 26 w t-bill to 10 yr bond. After 10 yr to 20 yr curve looks so good and why won't it. Because after the most horrible decade in entire history of Usa will come a little less horrible decade. Haha.

Result : I can confidently say yields are going up in respective bonds. But will basic yield curve i.e us10y-us02y will steepen or invert more is out of my pay grade.

Step 11 : VIX. It looks so ready to pop anytime.

I mean what do i even say here. This whole year traders are buying Vix calls in 20 and shorting equities and as the Vix goes 30 they sell their calls and buy puts. Meanwhile longing their equities position.
So smart Vix traders, it's time to integrate the mega crash in your calculations. Meaning do the first phase of second part but leave tf out of second phase of second part i.e. don't buy puts on Vix and don't try to long equity in 30 coz this time folks are going to promised Vix 40+.

Result : Vix is going up. Reason : It's mid terms + Putin x Jinpig x Biden at G8 = Volatility in Sept - Nov.

Conclusion :

Financial derivation = Take those steps into consideration that you are confident in your analysis.

So I chose my Eur-usd pokemon.
Reason : I am quite confident in my analysis and Lagarde. Plus Fed minutes made a commentary about this that dollar is looking so strong as comparison to Euro. Maybe this too played a part in their recent dovish commentary.

Assuming : Eur usd is going down coz Europe is f’ed. ( We were most confident about this in all of our steps. Also my birdie told me 0.93 eur-usd traders have risen from their grave in options market )

Above assumption ( proving in step 1 t.a. ) will mean :

Dxy go up due to the mirror chart theory. ( 0.80-0.90 levels in eur-usd = 120 move in Dxy )

So now equities, commodities, metals and rest other asset class will fall down.

But what about bonds?

Well when the dollar strengthens then the countries who have dollar denominated debts have to sell their bonds and buy new bonds to refinance. Something like that. I think i butchered it. But yah it happens. Other reason being when dollar strengthens due to ext factors then its kinda like a rate hike. So since bonds don't like rate hike they sell off. Now add QT on top of it i.e 95B/m + Us treasury will issue more long term bonds and cut treasury bill issuance. So 10yr to 20yr bond yields will go up.
So now remains the case for 2yr bonds. The Fed will hike rates but it's kinda hinting that they won't go aggressive now coz they don't wanna overshoot and bring depression. Hence the 2yr bond will not go up more than the back end i.e. 10yr bond. Meaning us10y-us02y will move from inversion territory to steepening territory.
T-bills is getting bought more instead of rrp. Hence t-bills are trading below rrp. Meaning billionaires or banks fear about incoming liquidity crisis or collateral shortage. So t-bills it is or cashola. Or you could go to a money market fund and park your money there coz banks don't give you anything. Let's cause bank run together next year.

Also vix will pop up in this scenario due to asset classes being sold off

The velocity of m2 is gonna go up suggesting economy expands. Nope. Imo its suggesting dollar milkshake theory coz m2 is going down. Less dollars will be in circulation but exchanges will remain same. ( Long shot. I really don't know. Just guessing )

Final Result :

Every step we proved above using technical analysis on weekly and monthly time frame is being backed by my financial derivation except one thing. Will us10y-us02y curve invert more or steepen.? Coz steepening is bad for dollar strength whereas more inversion is good for dollar strength i.e. Dxy.
P.s. I think i'm so confused. Damn these bonds are tough to read.

Note : I forgot Dr copper. Lol. Why is it going up when Gold and other metals is going down?
*** Illuminati said : "Coz Dxy move up or bond yields move up is not because of rate hikes. They all are priced in. It's because of pseudo rate hikes on the Global market that is causing dollar to strengthen. This is due to QT + Eur-usd , Gbp-usd going down. Throw Japanese yen in there too but its chart is going up coz its Usd-jpy pair not Jpy-usd. Just like i said before too.

Farewell :
Thank you guys for your patience in reading an 8yr old post with naruto references w/o even mentioning Naruto anywhere coz Itachi stole the show. xD I am so tired guys coz i was busy writing stuff for you guys whatever was coming to my mind and leaving no mistake in my final calculations.
Take care guys. I hope one of you becomes a billionaire in this Wsb group and then pump meme stock for future generations. So suck the life out of me in the comments section. I will reply to every single one of your queries one last time.
( Now playing David Guetta : Just one last time )

Again like i always say. Don't forget your friends and family. Call them once every week. Be humble, stay safe and eat healthy.

With lots of love
Regards
Uchiha

x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x
THE END

Sayonara...!!!

Investment agency of lithuania 2020

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