Le migliori idee di trading forex e azionario: eurusd ed apple in prima fila con una visione definita di rottura di livelli importanti. Vediamo insieme l'analisi tecnica dei strumenti finanziari con movimentazioni che potrebbero presagire buoni movimenti. Vi aspetto in questo video.
“I felt a great disturbance in the force as if millions of voices slowly and wildly got together and then there was an uprising against the government and the financial institutions”
Sorry guys, I was supposed to send this the day before yesterday ( great movie ) but unfortunately I got caught up in a celebration we are having over here. So it's the start of the weekend. Y’all know what that means. I'm not talking about having a party lol, that is for me. You guys have to decipher this long post so that you can protect yourself from the upcoming danger that I am seeing. In short you’re fucked if you don’t read this especially institutions and hedge funds. Just for this week please avoid strip clubs. This one's for you guys because you read my post. ( I like to think so ) Retail public especially retards i don’t have words for you guys. You guys can chill this weekend because all you do is sh9t on my post. Might as well sh9t on this too. I don’t care since all you’re obsessed with is Ryan Cohen and $BBBY. So when you’re finally over him after getting drunk this weekend then you can go ahead and read this post. Could be worth your time. As for people asking me why I don't give my opinions regarding meme stocks. Well folks the reason is simple. We are still in a bear market according to my calculations. So it's written somewhere in the gospel of investing that bear markets are the opportunities to analyze value companies, not meme companies which are about to be purge in the upcoming mega crash as an offering to please the gods of stock market. Yes you “You-tube” folks the crash hasn’t even started yet. We still have -53% to go from here till March 2023 as my base case. Don't even ask me about my worst case. For that just open the Dow Jones 1929-1932 chart. Tl;dr and Td;du folks : ( Too long didn't read, Too dumb didn’t understand ) We have already discussed this : Buy 4 months/2 months/1 months puts i.e Dec 30/Oct 29/Sept 29 at the money with strike price near about "200 day moving average = 200dMA" in $SPY last week of august if it comes. It already did one time on August 16 and i think the top is already in. So you’re gonna profit regardless. Invalidation would be three white soldier candles above 200dMA of course in daily chart. For positions go scroll down. ( I will make you work for it at-least. xD ) We have a long way to go friends. Now for those folks who want a detailed explanation about everything let’s dive in. Respected Traders and Investors, How are you guys doing? It’s been a long time hasn’t it. God I was gone for a while and had Ni-san use my Reddit account for a few days. First of all, I'm gonna apologize for the Shzio post by my brother Itachi. Man, it felt like it messed up my brains for a while there. It was so damn trippy. So I highly highly advise you guys not to go and read it a second time. Please, it's for your own health. Regardless i love my brother analysis coz he thinks like no other normal people do in the world of trading/investing. So, I take full responsibility for my actions and if things don't go as planned out in the above charts ( i.e the mega crash doesn’t happen you know ) then you’re not gonna hear from us. P.s. We promised you that we will do these posts only in bear markets. Even if the USA goes into depression for 10 to 15 years we will post in a week or two until we visit ath ( all time high ) once again. One may ask why not do this stuff in the bull market? Guys you have to understand we are not bull market specialists. For bull markets it's generally advised to follow moon boys on twitter, tik-tok, You-tube etc. They are more educated and well informed than us in that department with a huge audience behind them. ( They spend so much on marketing lol ) Recap : Predictions 2022 so far. I don’t usually like to do this because my readers already know about this but it’s time to back-test how accurate we ( i.e. me and my brother ) have been this whole time especially to show random people who are new to reading these kinds of posts especially when it’s season finale.
Then we predicted June Fomc bottom which we already mentioned in our first letter. Does “Dante cash deployment $SPX $3600-3700 at trend based 1 fib” ring a bell. ( But then later i said to just sell above 2% because Cpi 8.8% est and Atlanta Fed Gdp -2.1% est scared the sh9t out of me and i changed my strategy from "Riding to the top of the Bear market rally" to "Shorting at the top of bear market rally" )
And now we finally did the same for August top at 15/16 i.e. 200dMA/ 50-61.8% fib retrace which is just a follow up to above June Fomc bottom. post.
https://preview.redd.it/da60ccei62j91.png?width=818&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce9e342a4a1f31b7ed9cd4931c8511bdd9368ae5 And then there were bond, commodity, Dxy calls that we are not even mentioning. What this all means is that the stock markets have been performing as we had hoped for since February which is like 6-7 months ago. So i guess we are not a broken clock and actually do provide the exact days or should i say the time horizon. Am I a member of secret society i.e. "Illuminati” or have contacts in "Pay pal mafia" ? No guys. I am not a member of secret society nor do i have any contacts. My brother do though. I do want to manage the portfolio of wealthy clients like my brother someday but I'm too lazy. I just want to take bets and watch anime and Tv shows my entire life. I just finished West world and now i guess i will watch episode 1 of “House of dragons”. ( Why did that producer said bad things about Emilia. Hmm ) As for anime recommendation man its getting hard to find good ones. I'm just waiting for Chainsaw man now. About my self. Before all of this I was a Computer Science student whose only good skill was learning a hybrid application development platform called Flutter ( By Google ) but now I just write detailed and boring posts on Wall Street bets about anything that comes to my mind for you guys. My predictions come right because of you folks so thank you for taking trades and also I just basically copy pasted 2008 charts ( 32nd death week ) like I do with Git-hub while programming. Now will I be wrong in the future? Of course I will be. I’m no economist. I just make cases i.e stock market = 1972-73 or 2008 and just bet on them. Also a big hedge fund guy might find my post someday and take the opposite trade against me wrecking people who followed my advice. Hence i always tell you guys “Do your own research“ “This is not financial advice” even though it will be right most of the time. You absolutely should not follow anybody w/o checking out at-least 10 other guys. Why take my advice ? So now that we have cleared some of the confusion which I couldn't in my Wsb guest talk appearance you might be thinking why we should even consider your advice in the top 10 folks we watch. You’re a nobody. Well folks in my defense i would say it's because I gradually improved myself. Earlier my posts were shitty but now they are getting better especially my T.A. And I'm also learning economics day by day. Do you know guys I didn't wanted to write this as final post coz I was actually busy working on other post like “Deciphering Stagflation 70's” and “Thermodynamics in Economics” as my farewell post. Yes it's true guys the US economy is one giant open system. That’s how Elon Musk and Jerome Powell do calculations about economics. xD Well enough spoilers about the next season. I know you guys are getting bored. So lets now finally jump in what i wanted to actually talk about.
Experiment : Deriving conclusions about Nasdaq, S&P500 and rest other asset classes using other asset classes on weekly and monthly charts. I know it sounds insane right now but you will see. So just trust me on this. (My grammar is so poor)
Tools :” I mean the Technicals i will be using today includes : -> Candle sticks -> Elliot wave with Fibonacci -> Stochastic Rsi -> My favorite which never ever lies : Pvt(O) -> At last my “Ketlner channels” Procedure :
Step 1 : Forex Markets
Eur-usd Eur-usd : Have you ever seen such a bearish chart in your life both on a weekly and monthly basis? I mean as much as I love European countries but I have to say your Eur-usd charts sucks equally much. Putin owns you guys this winter. Italy and Germany are already suffering so much with 10x bills gas + electricity if compared with 2021 so i can't even imagine about countries like Spain, Greece etc. Okay so I'm gonna stop myself now with the pessimism and dive into Technicals. Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )
Eur-usd bull traders have to stop this deadly weekly close otherwise the whole world is f’ed.
Elliot wave C wants to go 1.618 i.e. 0.924.
Stochastic RSI are about to cross weekly and go down.
Pvt(O) if it crosses the blue line and heads down means game over.’
We aren’t even testing the Ketlner red upper band. That’s how bearish we are.
Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )
Eur-usd bull traders couldn't stop monthly support i.e 1.03. Rejected it, retested it from below and rejected it again. The double top at 1.24 was deadly too coz you know when we break the support at 1.03 you go down equally much. Hence those red vertical lines.
Elliot wave C wants to go 1.618 i.e. 0.81487 so is 0.834 vertical red line support.
Stochastic RSI is in deep water. You ain't coming out of there any time soon before weekly readjusts.
Pvt(O) wants to do nothing and stay flat for a while.
We are hanging on the Ketlner upper red band.
Result : I can confidently say with 1000% certainty that Eur-usd is going down. Thank you madam Lagarde. You’re doing such a fine job by selling German Bund and buying Italian bonds. Congratulations to you and your PEP tool (Lol, guys this woman is bat-sh9t crazy) Gbp-usd Gbp-usd : Well first Sir Mr Bailey. I have to say I'm a big fan of your honesty if you are reading this. I mean in today's world it's hard to find someone that honest in a government job. So guys we know inflation is double digit’s over here ( heading to 13% or was it 15% in coming months ) and in September the Bank of England is going with 50 bps. So we already know that Uk is gonna have more than 2Q of -ve Gdp. I hope you Uk folks survive considering you're gonna lose jobs, probably go into economic depression because recession is everybody’s base case even of Mr Bailey. So enough details let’s do analysis. Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )
Gbp-usd is in a huge IHS pattern but that doesn’t mean it will go to the upside that easily. Currently the price is testing right shoulder at 1.19. If it breaks then the price will test the head 1.14 and if it doesn’t break and holds then the price will go to 1.42 to test the neckline. After that we shall see whether the IHS breaks or not. Also the volume is supporting the down move.
There is no Elliot wave here. But the key thing to note is that if 1.14 breaks then you’re heading to 0.87 levels. Reason being two vertical red lines should be equal.
Stochastic RSI has crossed weekly and is about to go down.
Pvt(O) if it crosses the blue line and heads down means game over. If it doesn’t break only then you have a chance of at-least going to the neckline.
The price action has occupied the whole Ketlner red band. Meaning we are in a bearish downtrend.
Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )
Just remember we are in the box lock of 1.14 to 1.42 range. The increasing volume is also supporting this downwards move. If i don't take any wicks into consideration then it looks like the price has broken 61.8% fib and would likely head downwards to 1 fib cause there is no support of candle closing. So watch out for monthly close here as well and an eye on higher high volume. Also don't forget those red vertical lines. 1.72 - 1.42 , 1.42 - 1.14, so 1.14 - XXX. Do the math.
12345 was completed in Oct 2007 ( Yah that old ) From then we are in the ABC corrective wave. Elliot wave C is still deciding what’s gonna happen with IHS. If it breaks down you’re looking at 0.95.
Stochastic RSI is in deep water. You ain't coming out of here any time soon.
Pvt(O) wants to do nothing and stay flat.
We are hanging on the Ketlner red upper band.
Result : I can confidently say Gbp-usd is going down. Mr Soros if you’re listening to this, let's break the “Bank of England” once again. Just for good old times sake. Usd-Jpy Usd-jpy : If i tell you anything about this forex pair I’m probably Bs’ing you. It’s true guys. Even Mr Kuruda the governor of Boj doesn’t know where the Usd-jpy is gonna go. But what we can speculate is if the dollar becomes so much stronger due to the weakness in the Eur-usd equation then Dxy is gonna pump past 110 and the dollar becomes stronger. Got it. So I could easily play this approach into my thesis by telling you yes this pair is just gonna go up. But I will not do that. Instead I'm gonna play a devil’s advocate here saying Usd-jpy will go down. So let’s analyze things which are a total waste of your and my time because I'm gonna reverse this forex you will see how. Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )
Traders watch the 136. It’s a critical resistance. A clean break of it would mean 148 otherwise we go 125.
Elliott wave 12345 is complete at 136 and now we go for the ABC corrective wave. A will hit you at 116 and the rest is just a made up wave.
Stochastic RSI is on bottom and will go up.
Pvt(O) too looks like it could go up.
Here in this Ketlner channel we are hanging on a lower green band. That’s how bullish we are but I have chosen to take the bear case.
Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )
Traders watch the monthly close. If it closes above 136 we go to 148 otherwise down.
Elliott wave 12345 is complete at 136 wave. Entire ABC is made up because it all depends on the monthly close.
Stochastic RSI is on top flying and looks overbought but who can argue with their unlimited bond buying which in turn has caused the parabolic move.
Pvt(O) too looks like it could touch the blue line. If it crosses we fall, if not we go up.
Here in this Ketlner channel we are on an upper green band. That’s how extremely bullish we are but I have chosen to take the bear case.
So since I took the bear case it doesn't look like any bearish to me. Don't you agree? So our devil in devil’s advocate looks weak. So to fit our thesis lets reverse this. This is kinda like physics or Math kind of stuff where we proof things by assuming inverse. Result : I cannot confidently say but I will say Jpy-usd is going up to 148 at my favorite dot com times where Dxy went 120. Hence i’m selling my Yen trust with ticker $FXY.
Step 2 : DXY. A basket of forex currencies.
You must be wondering, I'm gonna introduce another colorful RGB crayon drawing chart on both weekly and monthly. Sorry to disappoint you folks but I'm not doing that. Instead let’s use our brains. We know that US dollar Index i.e. Dxy is used to measure the value of the dollar a/g basket of 6 currencies. The Euro, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, British pound and Swedish krona. Now I'm not gonna explain you here why dollar is global reserve currency or dollar has more liquidity so let’s just assume that. So what happens now is when Eur-usd becomes weaker, investors usually go risk off and buy the safest asset in the world i.e Dollar. Hence the Dxy goes stronger which suggests the dollar is getting stronger coz european buddies will exchange for dollars coz its very liquid and due to interest rate differentials. ( Remember Gbp-usd is an exception to interest rate differential coz what's happening over there is interest rates will go up but their currency is still losing its strength ) We have discussed a thesis in past letters already and came to a conclusion and I quote. “Eur-usd is a mirror image of the Dxy chart.” Remember this for your lifetime. Especially you Gen-z. I wasn’t gonna post a chart but then I realized I should for new folks who are lazy to read past posts. Eur-usd breaks parity and goes 0.80 levels Dxy will be 120 for sure. In monthly Dxy is super bullish. And on a weekly basis it's trying to close above 107 i believe. Hence your Voldemort asset class dropped -8% i guess. Right ? Mirror chart : DXY vs Eur-usd Result : I can confidently say Dollar or DXY is getting stronger in comparison to Euro, Gbp and Jpy. Hence DXY to 120 is back on the table according to the “20yrs of wyckoff accumulation” pattern. If you cleanly break 110-112 i must say equities especially the Spx is gonna visit to my $3200 level. Now some Cnbc or Bloomberg guys who stole my research and didn’t gave me credit 2-3 months ago used to come on tv and say things like “Oh in 2018 Spx visited 200wMA so it makes sense that this cycle which is even more tightening compared to last makes sense to visit this range.” So folks now the Spx has shifted its 200wMA/50mMA = $3500-$3600. But these clowns oops economists don't know that we should take a look at the monthly chart. Once you open that. Your pants are about to drop coz in the last tightening we visited not 200wMA but 100 monthly moving average i.e 100mMA. Yeah let’s go visit makachev vs oliviera in oct 23rd ufc 280. So if we cross paths over there I will tell you we are going to Spx $2873 i.e. somewhere around $2800-2900 which my close friend Dr Burry suggested too. Hence he sold + he is shorting coz he has relieved every moment in 2008. So he knows what’s coming next. You guys don’t.
Step 3 :Eur-usd Implied Fed funds 100-CME:GEZ2023 ( Not gonna use Elliot wave + Fib trend starting here now )
This is like gonna be super high level stuff even far above my pay grade. Only Zoltan can explain this using repo markets but since he is busy I will try to explain it in a funny way. So if you might have watched Cnbc this past week two economists were arguing about how Fed funds have priced in 4% already but one might be saying no it has only priced in 3.4-3.5%. So who is right? If you watch “Everything money” by my suggestion then Mo came to the conclusion that the reason he is saying 4% is because the Fed is doing QT + rate hikes which Mo still does not believe. So who is right and what is the right explanation for 4% ? Imo they both are right but the explanation is wrong. The reason one should present about the 4% Fed funds argument is that in Eur-usd implied Fed funds went to 4%. Hence the market has priced 4% in the euro dollar banking system. But if you take only the dollar banking system in Usa then we look at yields of 2 yr and 10 yr which are hinting that Fed funds 3.4-3.5% is already priced in by the markets. Eur-usd implied Fed funds. Monthly and weekly time frame analysis :
Both look strong on a monthly and weekly basis. If monthly candle closes above resistance i.e. 3.50 this month then we are looking past 4% Eur-usd implied fed funds
Stochastic Rsi on weekly and crossed and is heading up while on monthly they are about to cross and hover above for a while.
Pvt(O) on weekly looks promising as compared to monthly.
Both of them don’t wanna lose their lower green Ketlner band.
Result : I can confidently say that we are going up here technically. So J. Powell, could you please back me up on this. Zoltan agrees with me. Snyder doesn’t. ( Just remember implied fed funds can go up due to Eur-usd weakness. So its kinda like indirect interest rate hike for markets. Add QT on top of that. Hence Fed is dovish in Fomc minutes for rate hikes )
Step 4 : HYG & LQD : The corporate bonds
HYG Hyg : This product is designed to replicate a benchmark which provides a broad representation of the U.S. dollar-denominated high yield liquid corporate bond market. The high yield bond space has been cracked wide open by ETFs, as these products have offered numerous ways for investors to take advantage of this space. High yields can be a great addition to a yield-starved portfolio, as they can offer yields into the double digits for those willing to take on the risks that come along with it. The high returns come from riskier bond choices who have to pay out higher ratios to compensate investors for high risks. This means that the holdings of these ETFs will have higher chances of defaults, and could potentially leave investors out to dry. But those who have done their homework on the holdings of a particular “junk” bond fund have the ability to generate strong returns from these powerful products. HYG keeps most of its assets inside of the U.S., though it does offer a slice of international exposure as well. The ETF is dominated by corporate bonds, the majority of which have investment grades between B and BB. This product will make a great income addition to any investor who is fully aware of the risks a high yield bond product carries. Weekly time frame analysis :
Weekly is gonna print bearish engulfing candle. Also there is a volume divergence. Price going up but volume going down which leads to fall. Trend line break candles will be the nail on the coffin.
Stochastic Rsi on weekly crossed and now are heading down.
Pvt(O) on weekly is also done after releasing supply and now will head down to accumulation..
Ketlner middle line changing band rejected the price action suggesting bearish continuation.
Monthly time frame analysis :
Monthly rejected its previous to previous top of the candle and is gonna print another st. down red monthly. Again price ascending volume declining.
But interestingly stochastic Rsi on monthly going up..
Pvt(O) on monthly also about to cross its blue line later sometimes.
As for Ketlner, well it's pretty much occupying the entire red lower band.
LQD : I leave it up to you guys. Cmon at least do one. Result : I cannot confidently say that we are going down on a monthly time frame ( i need to see more data ) but yah sure on weekly we are going down because of that deadly candle that folks have been talking about.
Step 5 : IEI/HYG : Government bond price / Corporate bond price.
IEI/HYG : Double check below thing. IEI/HYG : If it goes up then credit spreads are widening. ( Bad thing i.e risk off ) IEI/HYG : If it goes down then credit spreads are tightening. ( Good thing i.e. risk on ) Weekly time frame analysis :
Weekly is about to print a bullish engulfing candle. Also volume isn’t supporting downwards move i.e. price is going down but volume is going down as well.
Stochastic Rsi on weekly crossed and now are heading up.
Can't comment about Pvt(O) weekly. Mixed signals
Ketlner middle line changing band supported the price action and is green. Meaning bullish continuation
Monthly time frame analysis :
No complete data on monthly that we can make assumptions.
But stochastic Rsi crossed on monthly and suggested going down.
As for Ketlner, well we had rejection from an extremely bullish green band i.e. we haven't gotten permission for capitulation but we got support from middle Ketlner to make the price go up again.
Result : I cannot confidently say that we are going up on a monthly time frame ( i need to see more data ) but yah sure on weekly we are going up.
Step 6 : ( Super scary ) : Velocity of m2 or m1 money supply i.e v = us gdp / m1 or m2.
Velocity of M2 This is a very debatable topic. Only the pros have the right to argue about this stuff and no one else. Peter lynch once told me during my time travel visit that people worry that the velocity of money supply is going up way too fast then we are gonna have depression and if the velocity of money supply goes down then too we are gonna have depression. So which one is it? Anyways Q3 2020 : 1.149 was the highest reading. Currently we are trying to break it. Q2 2022 : 1.147 "The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy. This is called an expanding economy." ~ By Fred website. So go out there and ask your banking friends and tell them please explain the concept of money supply in today's terms. Not an old term. So I too went to my brother for advice. He told me “ F off “ Result : “F off”
Step 7 : Gold
We are not gonna do weekly and monthly time frame analysis on this. Some of you guys may be like “Dude, I'm an old man with agricultural land. I wanna own gold like my ancestors from 18th century coz i believe in stagflation, parabolic move, end of the world, negative debasement hedge blah blah” So i need charts. Old man's Gold : Old man you need to chill. We are gonna use our brain like Peter Schiff. So we know, gold doesn't love that his nemesis dollar is going up. Now if you can tell me how high Dxy will go up then i can tell you that the top of Dxy will be the bottom of Gold. Also gold doesn’t love financial crisis or bank runs. In my world gold is a phoenix who rises from ashes. Meaning if we plunge into the abyss then gold is gonna drag us out of there first. Then indices move and other asset classes. Digital Gold : As for young folks, you love the King of Voldemort asset class don’t you? So go buy it at amazon bottom i.e. $4-5k or my favorite Richard heart level -83% i.e 10,690. Or if you really don't have the patience like probably 99% of the entire world population you buy some % of this commodity for whatever reasons these guys are selling you at $20k. I shall rest my case now. Result : Dollar i.e. Dxy up = Gold down and vice versa.
Step 8 : TLT/JNK : It’s kinda like IEI/HYG
Can you guys do this please? Hint : Bullish divergence on weekly and monthly. Meaning TLT ( 20yr treasury bond etf by black rock ) buying over Junk bonds i.e. JNK
Step 9 : US Oil.
Let's go Brandon and the government. Just how much are you gonna manipulate the best inflation hedge alive. You guys have already killed my Gold. Yes you J.P. Morgan traders, I hate you. May your bank dies in upcoming crash and have Panic of 2023 just like Knickbocker crisis in 1907. Only then I shall have my vengeance a/g those rumors you circulated back in the days. So guys you probably would know this that our Usa Government try to manipulate oil market just to please people and ask for votes. These are some of their stupid tactics.
Releasing SPR ( i.e. Strategic petroleum reserve ) in the market.
Pressurizing Saudis to find oil. ( Btw Saudi Armaco alone made profits greater than all Usa mega cap tech combined )
Windfall taxes on Oil companies.
Distributing E.V. credits to people. But even E.V. companies are smart. They instead increase their price. Ford I mean what the f you guys are doing.
This is the most manipulated market I have ever seen in my 100 yr+ of lifetime. So traders if your conclusion from my above observation was that we should short Oil lemme tell you something in double quotes. “Be afraid of Putin’s Winter Oil boogeyman”. "Contango is a dangerous thing that futures creates" You don’t short Oil in winter. Period. Heck you shouldn’t even trade Oil. Only the expert can do this because it's called “Widow Maker” i.e. the losses in this commodity trading could be catastrophic planetary devastation like. Tip : Btw currently oil is in downwards wedge and it could break to upside and we go up in winter but Oil too like gold doesn't love Dxy going up. So kinda mixed signals i guess. Let's see who shall prevail bulls or bears of oil. Result : Dollar i.e. Dxy up = Oil down and vice versa but Winter is coming/ Contango = Maybe Oil up.
Step 10 : Powell curve i.e.10 yr - 3 month, 2 yr - 3 month ( Pvt(o) and Elliot wave doesn't work here )
Do you guys remember the talk we had with Powell earlier this year when he was trying to explain us that the inversion of the 10 yr - 2 yr curve doesn't mean anything and unless the near term curve inverts it's all okay. Well folks Powell near time curves are close to getting inverted. Therefore you’re seeing these Fed officials talk dovish recently. Coz if they invert Fed will lose their remaining 0.0000001% credibility. So let’s analyze them on a weekly time frame because on a monthly time frame they look super super bearish to me and there is no chance that the curve won’t invert at some point later on. J Powell/ Fed Curves : Us10y-Us03m , Us02y-Us03m Weekly time frame analysis :
The current weekly candle in both curves are going to close lower than previous week which could suggest further downside risk.
Stochastic Rsi on 10yr-3m looks flat dead whereas on 2yr-3m it looks like it is rising.
MacD in both of them is showing us that the downwards declining move is losing its strength.
As for Ketlner, well in both of them they are staying in the lower red band suggesting they are still in a bearish trend.
Larry Summers former Fed chairman came recently to Bloomberg saying that the Fed has shown in latest minutes that they don’t even know what they are doing. Hence they Bs’ing us in their statement. I mean guys just read these hawkish and dovish points yourself. Also do check out the hidden statements in minutes which are pieces of advice for billionaires about liquidity and t-bills. Don’t forget my warning about bank runs. They are coming. My bet is Well’s Fargo Oct 2022/23 = Lehman brothers Oct 2008 or you could also go with lowest read by a bank in Fed stress test. Hawkish vs Dovish vs Billionaire's ( Highlighted in blue ) Fed minutes. As for individual bonds and overall yield curve : Bonds :
Well 10 yr yields looks so good on both weekly and monthly time frame. So we go up in yields.
2 yr yields look so good on weekly and waiting for monthly close making it bullish. Meaning on September Fed is gonna be dead. ( Yields will rise meaning bond prices go down with stocks )
Note : Once again i'm telling yields is going up due to Eur-usd down i.e. Dxy up and markets front running 95B/m QT. We are quite unsure about rate hikes coz its nearly 50-50 b/w 50 and 75 bps. It will all depend on Cpi and Jobs data in September.
Institutions and Hf’s are also buying Chinese bonds like crazy or maybe Chinese themselves because of fear of recession and growth slowdown i.e. flight to safety trade. They have deflationary recession but the thing is they have balance sheet recession. So their government is creating a liquidity trap by cutting rates. But don't forget they can always do exuberance amount of liquidity coz they have very less inflation. In Usa you're getting rekt in both stocks and bonds.
Yield curve :
As for the entire yield curve here look at these beauties that Powell has created in these charts.
Credits : Eurodollar University. By Jeff Snyder Note : Yield should be higher if the time horizon is higher. Meaning shorter end like 2 yr to 5 yr should yield less than 10 yr and 20 yr normally due to unknown risks associated in far future. But look here in these charts. A 52 w t-bill is yielding more than 20 yr and 10 yr bonds. That’s insane. It tells us there is a danger in next 1-2yrs as compared to far in future. The curve has gone banana's b/w 26 w t-bill to 10 yr bond. After 10 yr to 20 yr curve looks so good and why won't it. Because after the most horrible decade in entire history of Usa will come a little less horrible decade. Haha. Result : I can confidently say yields are going up in respective bonds. But will basic yield curve i.e us10y-us02y will steepen or invert more is out of my pay grade.
Step 11 : VIX. It looks so ready to pop anytime.
I mean what do i even say here. This whole year traders are buying Vix calls in 20 and shorting equities and as the Vix goes 30 they sell their calls and buy puts. Meanwhile longing their equities position. So smart Vix traders, it's time to integrate the mega crash in your calculations. Meaning do the first phase of second part but leave tf out of second phase of second part i.e. don't buy puts on Vix and don't try to long equity in 30 coz this time folks are going to promised Vix 40+. Result : Vix is going up. Reason : It's mid terms + Putin x Jinpig x Biden at G8 = Volatility in Sept - Nov.
Financial derivation = Take those steps into consideration that you are confident in your analysis. So I chose my Eur-usd pokemon. Reason : I am quite confident in my analysis and Lagarde. Plus Fed minutes made a commentary about this that dollar is looking so strong as comparison to Euro. Maybe this too played a part in their recent dovish commentary. Assuming : Eur usd is going down coz Europe is f’ed. ( We were most confident about this in all of our steps. Also my birdie told me 0.93 eur-usd traders have risen from their grave in options market ) Above assumption ( proving in step 1 t.a. ) will mean :
Dxy go up due to the mirror chart theory. ( 0.80-0.90 levels in eur-usd = 120 move in Dxy )
So now equities, commodities, metals and rest other asset class will fall down.
But what about bonds?
Well when the dollar strengthens then the countries who have dollar denominated debts have to sell their bonds and buy new bonds to refinance. Something like that. I think i butchered it. But yah it happens. Other reason being when dollar strengthens due to ext factors then its kinda like a rate hike. So since bonds don't like rate hike they sell off. Now add QT on top of it i.e 95B/m + Us treasury will issue more long term bonds and cut treasury bill issuance. So 10yr to 20yr bond yields will go up.
So now remains the case for 2yr bonds. The Fed will hike rates but it's kinda hinting that they won't go aggressive now coz they don't wanna overshoot and bring depression. Hence the 2yr bond will not go up more than the back end i.e. 10yr bond. Meaning us10y-us02y will move from inversion territory to steepening territory.
T-bills is getting bought more instead of rrp. Hence t-bills are trading below rrp. Meaning billionaires or banks fear about incoming liquidity crisis or collateral shortage. So t-bills it is or cashola. Or you could go to a money market fund and park your money there coz banks don't give you anything. Let's cause bank run together next year.
Also vix will pop up in this scenario due to asset classes being sold off
The velocity of m2 is gonna go up suggesting economy expands. Nope. Imo its suggesting dollar milkshake theory coz m2 is going down. Less dollars will be in circulation but exchanges will remain same. ( Long shot. I really don't know. Just guessing )
Final Result :
Every step we proved above using technical analysis on weekly and monthly time frame is being backed by my financial derivation except one thing. Will us10y-us02y curve invert more or steepen.? Coz steepening is bad for dollar strength whereas more inversion is good for dollar strength i.e. Dxy. P.s. I think i'm so confused. Damn these bonds are tough to read. Note : I forgot Dr copper. Lol. Why is it going up when Gold and other metals is going down? *** Illuminati said : "Coz Dxy move up or bond yields move up is not because of rate hikes. They all are priced in. It's because of pseudo rate hikes on the Global market that is causing dollar to strengthen. This is due to QT + Eur-usd , Gbp-usd going down. Throw Japanese yen in there too but its chart is going up coz its Usd-jpy pair not Jpy-usd. Just like i said before too. Farewell : Thank you guys for your patience in reading an 8yr old post with naruto references w/o even mentioning Naruto anywhere coz Itachi stole the show. xD I am so tired guys coz i was busy writing stuff for you guys whatever was coming to my mind and leaving no mistake in my final calculations. Take care guys. I hope one of you becomes a billionaire in this Wsb group and then pump meme stock for future generations. So suck the life out of me in the comments section. I will reply to every single one of your queries one last time. ( Now playing David Guetta : Just one last time ) Again like i always say. Don't forget your friends and family. Call them once every week. Be humble, stay safe and eat healthy. With lots of love Regards Uchiha x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x THE END Sayonara...!!!
The Essential Guide to Australia Thoracolumbar Spine Devices Market
Of Thoracolumbar Spine Devices Market is segmented By Product Type( Spine Biologics, Implants, Instrumentation, Others), Through Procedure( Minimally Invasive Surgery( MIS), Open Surgery, Others), By Unit Type( Anterior Stabilization Device, Retractors, Posterior Stabilization Device, Others), Using Material( Stainless Steel, Titanium, Others), By End- User( Hospitals and Clinics, Diagnostic Centres, Exploration Centers, Others), and Place– Share, Size, Outlook, and Opportunity Analysis, 2022- 2029 Market Overview The Australian thoracolumbar spine devices market size was valued at YOU$ 289. 6 million in 2021 and is estimated to reach US$ 504. 3 million by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 5.1% in the outlook period (2022- 2029). Thoracolumbar fractures are associated with trouble from the ligamentous complexes. All these are breakages inside the backbone of the spinal column in the thoracic and lumbar region that might trigger instability or compression of neural structures. The thoracolumbar spine devices are applied to supply steady support for the vertebrae and avoid bending from the thoracic spine. They are utilized for the treatment of several disorders such as vertebral stenosis, spinal instability or scoliosis, degenerative disc disease (DDD), DVD herniation, prolapsed intervertebral disc, and increased kyphosis, among others. Download Free Sample:https://www.datamintelligence.com/download-sample/australia-thoracolumbar-spine-devices-market Market Aspect The Australian thoracolumbar spine devices market is expanding as a result of the rising incidence of vertebral disorders such as spinal stenosis, vertebral fracture, degenerative disc disease, excessive kyphosis, plus more across Down under. There is an amazing increased lumbar spine surgery in Down under. The rising incidence of spine disorders drives the expansion of the thoracolumbar spine devices market The steady advancements in medical device technology have created the potential for effectively treating various spinal disorders. Medical device manufacturers are raising new products that lead to revolutionary treatment techniques and surgical procedures. As an example, in September 2019, RTI Surgical Holdings, Inc. a global surgical implant company, reported the first surgery utilizing the HPSTM 2. 0 Hybrid Functionality System, a modular pedicle twist system used for mono- and multi-segmental tight, hybrid, or dynamic posterior leveling of the thoracolumbar spine. Some neurosurgeons and Fellows of the Royal Australasian College of Physicians performed the surgery at Sydney Adventist Hospital in Sydney, down under. There is an inclination towards minimally invasive surgeries (MIS) compared to open surgery as open surgery is painful and requires an extended hospital stay. The shift from traditional wide-open surgeries to minimally invasive operations has improved personal gratification to a fast recovery and shorter hospital stays. The increasing need for minimally invasive vertebrae surgery is one of the major factors boosting the expansion of the thoracolumbar spine devices market. In June 2019, NuVasive, Inc. launched Modulus TLIF- O, a porous titanium vertebrae implant for use beneath the transforaminal lumbar interbody running(TLIF) procedure. These advantages need to drive a continued switch towards minimally invasive surgery(MIS) adoption and the associated expansion of the MIS spinal turfiste market. The potential health risks associated with these devices are likely to limit the growth of the thoracolumbar spine devices market High costs associated with your devices hugely impact the market growth, and time drinking treatment procedures are also influencing the market negatively. Various challenges are associated with these devices such as malfunctioning which can be harmful. Reimbursement issues may also be associated with forex trading that restrains the expansion of the market. Industry Analysis The marketplace thoracolumbar spine devices market provides a complete analysis of the industry dependent on various industry factors such as porter's five forces, corporate research, supply chain analysis, coverage and reimbursement policies, pricing examination, and product innovations. Segment Examination The greatest segment is likely to hold the biggest market share in the Australian thoracolumbar vertebrae devices market The implants part holds the biggest market talk about and is expected to increase for the Australian thoracolumbar spine devices market implants segment, owing to the rising prevalence of vertebrae disorders coupled with the growing geriatric population, better efficiency, easy availability of implants, and engineering advancement in spinal implants for the treatment. As the prevalence of spinal disorders such as degenerative disc disease or problems is rising, manufacturers are highly committing to the ongoing development of spinal solutions for the treatment and stabilization of the thoracolumbar spine. Implant systems utilizing specially designed spinal instrumentation are often found during these surgical treatments. The implants can be used to facilitate running, correct deformities, and stabilize and strengthen the spine. Most vertebrae implants are constructed of metals such as titanium, titanium alloy, or steel, some are created from low-metallic compounds. Currently, professionals are developing bio-resorbable implants. Like other implants, these are utilized to facilitate running. Bioresorbable implants are designed to tenderize when they come into contact with liquid (such as in the body). In July 2019, Alphatec Coalition launched IdentiTi porous titanium interbody implant system for anterior rear interbody fusion procedures. Key features of the implant include stiffness just like bone, reduced density for improved imaging characteristics, and a proprietary pore composition that enhances implant stability and adhesion. The thoracolumbar spine device companies are segmented by surface finish- users into diagnostic focuses, hospitals& clinics, research focuses, ambulatory surgical centers, and others. Among these, the hospitals& clinics segment accounted for the biggest market share, as a result of support reimbursement policies in hospitals. On the other hand, there is an increase in the multitude of surgical procedures in ambulatory surgery centers that happen to be expected to improve the growth of this part during the forecast period. Competitively priced Surroundings The thoracolumbar spine devices marketplace is highly competitive with the existence of a significant number of players including Depuy Synthes, Medtronic Plc., B. Braun Melsungen AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT, Alphatec Holdings, Inc., Globus Medical, Inc., Exactech, Inc, Stryker Firm, Orthofix International N. V, NuVasive, Inc., and Zimmer Biomet. The leading element players are adopting various growth strategies such as product launches, mergers& acquisitions, partners, and collaborations which are adding to the expansion in the thoracolumbar spine devices market. For instance, in Feb 2022, DePuy acquired a foot and foot, surgical device maker. The crossroad trade hands during the bargain were seen from its bulk of investors, J& J franchise, and Healthpoint Capital. In Sep 2022, Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc., a leader in musculoskeletal healthcare, publicized its agreement of multi-year co-marketing with Surgical Planning Associates for the commercialization of HipInsight. It is 1st FDA-cleared mixed nav system for hip replacement. In January 2019, Southern Spine, a manufacturer of implants and musical instruments for spinal surgery, launched some new StabiLink Dual Lamina Augmentations specifically created for upper thoracic clinical use. About Us DataM Intelligence was incorporated in the early weeks of 2017 as a Market Research and Consulting firm with just two people on board. Within less than a year, we have secured more than 100 unique customers from established organizations all over the world. For more information: Sai Kiran Sales Manager at DataM Intelligence Email: [email protected] Tel: +1 877 441 4866 Website: www.datamintelligence.com
https://youtu.be/lOa1QaXYa2E #mercatifinanziari SONO IN FORTE CRESCITA CON POSITIVITA' DEGLI INVESTITORI. OGGI #eurusd SPINTO DALLE POSSIBILI DECISIONI #fed , SUI TASSI D'INTERESSE POTREBBE CONTINUARE LA POSIZIONE LUNGA; NEL VIDEO DI OGGI PARLERO' ANCHE DELLO #sp500 CON UNA VISIONE GEOMETRICA, CICLICA E VOLUMETRICA. OFFERTA: 90 EURO DI BUONO PER I MIEI SERVIZI, CLICCA QUI: https://www.christianciuffa.com/offer... ------------------------------------------------------------------ SERVIZI AI QUALI TI PUOI ABBONARE: ▶️ ABBONATI QUI PER ACCEDERE A TRADING POWER OPERATIVO SUI #MERCATIFINANZIARI: https://bit.ly/TradingPowerService ▶️ ISCRIVITI AL CORSO PER DIVENTARE UN TRADER GEOMETRICO VOLUMETRICO E CICLICO: http://bit.ly/2AIZWNX ----------------------------------------------------------------- GRAZIE PER AVERMI SEGUITO, CI VEDIAMO AL PROSSIMO VIDEO! SE IL MIO CONTENUTO E' STATO DI TUO GRADIMENTO LASCIAMI UN LIKE E CONDIVIDILO CON UN AMICO TABELLA DEI CONTENUTI: 00:00 INTRODUZIONE AL VIDEO DI OGGI 02:20 VISIONE DEL CALENDARIO ECONOMICO 02:35MACROECONOMIA CON UNA VIEW SU INFLAZIONE E TASSI D'INTERESSE 12:26 S&P500 CON VISIONE DI BREVE-MEDIO PERIODO CON CONSIDERAZIONI SU VOLATILITA' E AZIONI 21:21 EURUSD CON ANALISI APPROFONDITA GEOMETRICA, CICLICA E VOLUMETRICA SU BREVE E MEDIO PERIODO 28:50 CONSIDERAZIONI FINALI ----------------------------------------------------------------- SPONSOR DEL PROGRAMMA E RISORSE CHE CONSIGLIO: ABBONATI A TRADINGVIEW E RICEVERAI 30€ DA SPENDERE IMMEDIATAMENTE LA PIATTAFORMA PIU' AVANZATA CON GRAFICI IN TEMPO REALE IDEALE PER TUTTI I TIPI DI TRADER ED INVESTITORI CLICCA QUESTO LINK: bit.ly/tradingviewpower APRI UN CONTO CON ADMIRAL MARKETS PER FARE TRADING SU TUTTI I MERCATI A ZERO COMMISSIONI CON CAPITALE ASSICURATO FINO A 100000€; IN PIU' HAI LA POSSIBILITA' DI INVESTIRE IN AZIONI ED ETF SENZA SWAP E CON LO STESSO BROKER; CLICCA QUESTO LINK bit.ly/admiralmarketsbroker FAI TRADING CON AVATRADE PER OPERARE SU FOREX E CRIPTOVALUTE CON UN CONTO REGOLAMENTATO IN EUROPA: bit.ly/Ava-Trade ----------------------------------------------------------------- Risk Disclosure and Disclaimer: https://bit.ly/disclaimerprivacyterms ----------------------------------------------------------------- #christianciuffa#corsoditrading#Trading#Investimenti#Economia#Investire#Finanza#Macroeconomia#tradingview
Gak bisa dipungkiri sepanjang tahun 2020-2021 banyak orang memulai investasinya karena influence sosial media. Beruntung bagi yang memulai investasinya lebih awal dan agak celaka bagi yang mulai investasinya di akhir-akhir tanpa tau konsekuensinya. Banyak kasus orang beli saham pake pinjol. Beli BTC, Altcoin pake utangan, uang arisan, bahkan sumbangan gereja. my advice for you yang kena FOMO: Miner musiman: Ketika crypto turun drastis di Januari-Februari 2022. Segera jual alat miningmu karena kamu harus menunggu 2024 untuk bisa panen. Karena ketika kamu beli mining rig sekarang harganya sudah naik berkali-kali lipat dari harga wajarnya. Perhitungkan kembali listrik yang harus kamu keluarkan, Gak BEP istilahnya. Contoh nyata Founder Rekeningku yang boncos bertahun-tahun karena nutupin biaya listrik dan beli mining rig kemahalan, baru panen akhir2 ini. Robot trading: Royal Q , Forex dll. Robot trading is scam, jauhi sekarang sebelum terlambat. Janji manis seller Royal Q dan robot forex profit konisten itu gak ada buktinya 100% scam. Kisah nyata banyak yg bunuh diri karena tiba-tiba assetnya hilang diaveraging oleh robot. Jangan sampai kamu jadi korbannya Trader Binomo, Binary option: Kamu yang baru memulai binary option, inilah saatnya dirimu keluar dari sistem jahat Judi 2.0 mungkin diawal kamu akan merasakan profit namun lama kelamaan akan susah dan tiba-tiba akun tersuspen tanpa sebab. Jelakanya gak ada yg bisa jamin akunmu balik karena Binomo dan lainnya jelas ilegal di Indonesia sehingga penyedia layanan tidak diketahui siapa. Trader Saham musiman via signal telegram : Saham ada bull market dan bearish market, lengkapi dirimu dengan FA dan TA tambah bandarmology juga. Investing stock is about your move, bukan orang lain. Jadi pastikan semua keputusan investasi kamu yang buat bukan orang lain. Trader Crypto: Bear market is coming, we need to understand what crypto still alive for next 4 Years(next halving) DCA still the best strategy for you. We will face the second Bull Run but dont fall for it to much, cause second bull run means next winter season. note: I hope yall getting more profit and healthy. May the Force be with you
Message me via reddit or follow the link https://namae.me/20dollarcourse 1 2018 Client Getting Bot Blueprint 2 Adam Ackerman, John Galley - Crowdfunding Cash System 3 Adam Thomas - Dropshipping Accelerator 2018 4 Adrian Morrison – eCom Success Academy 2017 5 Adrian Morrison eCom Success Academy 2018 6 Alex Becker - H-Com 2020 (Updated) 7 Alex Fedotoff - 7 Figure Ecommerce Blueprint 8 Alex Schlinsky - Prospecting On Demand 9 Amiee Ball - Pay To Play 10 Andre Chaperon - Auto Responder 3.0 11 Anik Signal Facebook Ads Mastery 12 Anik Singal - Copywriting Academy 13 Anik Singal - FB Ad Academy 14 Anik Singal – Copywriting Academy 15 Anthony Groeper - The 100k Blueprint 16 Anthony Groeper – Viral Venum IG Mastery 17 Anton Kraly - Dropship Lifestyle 6.0 18 Arie Scherson - E-Commerce Inner Circle Program 19 Beau Crabill - Online Retail Mastery (Amazon FBA University) 20 Billy Gene - Clicks Into Customers 2.0 21 Billy Willson - 6 Figure Facebook Ads Agency 22 Bradley Riley - Social Media Marketing Academy 23 Chalene Johnson - 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The stock markets are in complex moments of uncertainty due to the current macroeconomic scenario. However, every crisis presents significant opportunities for the determined investor. Here are 5 actions with great potential for the second half of 2022.
Finding good assets to invest in 2022 is essential to manage risk and guarantee acceptable returns in the current scenario of high inflation.
We are already in the second quarter of the year and the stock market scenarios seem quite complicated, but not without opportunities .
In this article we'll present 3 stocks with potential that after the market crash are trading at an attractive price.
1. Accelerated increase in interest rates by the FED
The Fed started the interest rate hike cycle recently. However, these measures require time for the economy to feel the effect and for the actors to modify their expectations.
"It seems that the current inflation has a persistent character and will not be reduced so easily."
In addition, other factors such as problems in the global supply chain are present at the core of inflation. There is a very strong connection with imports from China that are affected due to new sanitary closures due to Covid-19, especially in Shanghai. Therefore, that makes it more difficult to fight inflation with traditional monetary policy tools. The next FED meetings are scheduled for June 15 and July 27 , but as things are going, it is expected that the increases will continue by at least 25 basis points, or up to 50… The Fed is loath to go too fast to avoid triggering a recession, but the risk of that scenario is rising.
"If the expectations of economic actors continue to deteriorate, this could have a cascading effect throughout the system."
Companies could freeze their operating investments, hire less workers, investors could be inclined to sell their stock assets, consumer spending would decrease, and so on. The problem is that there are too many risk factors interacting right now, and many of them are across borders. We talk about factors such as the war in Europe and the management of the pandemic and the economy in China.
3. New outbreaks of Covid-19 in China affect the US.
In the US, total deaths from the Covid-19 pandemic reached one million victims during the month of May. It is estimated that only 67% of citizens have the complete vaccination protocol . It seems that society, in some way, has already learned to live with the pandemic, and furthermore, it is more concerned about inflation and the performance of the economy than about Covid-19. In any case, it could be thought that the peak of the pandemic has already passed. However, on the other side of the world, in China, the new outbreaks have prompted the authorities to apply a draconian policy of closures and restrictions in major cities such as Shanghai .
“The closures in China are an element that further slows down the global supply chain and impacts inflation.”
There are tons of merchandise destined for the US and other parts of the world that have not been able to leave. Worse still, the factories have stopped and with it the production of many goods . China is expected to start opening cities from June . On the other hand, it must be taken into account that economic statistics have a lag in their publication. That being the case, the effect of the closures in China will not be seen immediately, but it is estimated that it will worsen the problem of inflation in the US. In addition, it is a factor that deteriorates the expectations of investors much more.
4. The Russian invasion of Ukraine poses many problems and risks
On February 24, Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine, citing a threat to its national security. The antecedents and the actions show rather that their intentions are expansionist and almost colonial . In fact, he seems to be applying a policy of "Russification" of the occupied territories with serious human rights violations.
"The West has decided to strongly support Ukraine with weapons, funds and intelligence, but without getting directly involved."
Sweden and Finland, two countries that had long remained neutral, have now applied to join NATO in the face of the looming threat from Russia. So the security landscape in Europe has completely changed and there is no easy way out of the conflict. The impact on the markets is twofold:
- Russia destroys Ukraine's civilian infrastructure and blocks its ports, preventing it from exporting its products.
- The West strongly sanctions Russia, disconnecting it from its financial and economic circuit.
Energy prices, which had already been on the rise, have been boosted by the conflict . Food prices are also increasing as a result of the scarcity of merchandise and other raw materials from that region. All this enhances the global inflation scenario and, as we have said, makes it difficult to combat it with the normal tools used by central banks. In addition, the risks of the conflict are very high:
A potential defeat for Russia can push it to retaliate against the West in myriad ways or to escalate the war to other neighboring countries like Poland or Moldova.
A defeat of Ukraine without response from the West may persuade Russia to expand further and further west with dire global consequences.
Markets hate uncertainty and this conflict is a real source of trouble and will continue to create a lot of volatility.
5. Midterm elections are not looking good for Biden
"We must take into account that historically the ruling party does not do very well in these appointments due to the wear and tear of the first 2 years of management."
On the other hand, there is great polarization in the US and there are many internal and external challenges for the country that complicate the picture. If the ruling party loses both legislative chambers , its hands will be tied for the next two years , with no further possibility of appeal in the courts, dominated by conservatives. Depending on how other risk factors play out, the outcome of the election could raise or lower the chance of a US recession.
What can happen with the stock markets?
The economic prospects for 2022 are deeply affected by the 5 elements mentioned. In addition, they interact with each other and can enhance each other. Multiple scenarios can occur from this, but we will consider only 2 general scenarios : a) “Hard Landing” Scenario This scenario implies persistent inflationary pressures that force the FED to raise interest rates faster . The impact on the psychology of investors is deeper.
"As time goes by, a severe adjustment in the economy becomes more and more likely."
The economy stopped growing in the first quarter of 2022 and could slow further as rates rise, further impacting credit and consumption. The major US stock indices have all entered bearish territory , so we are moving beyond a simple “normal correction”. The health closures in China are also negatively affecting the US economy due to their impact on the supply chain and also on expectations. As for geopolitics, the Russia-Ukraine conflict threatens to extend over time and could escalate to other countries if the situation becomes much more complicated for the invader. All this general context negatively affects the chances of the Biden administration to succeed in November , so it can lose both chambers. In this hard landing scenario there is greater depth in market adjustments with a complicated picture for the US economy. A scenario like this would imply greater caution in considering entering the market , since investment strategies would be affected by the growing volatility. However, to the extent that this scenario does not last too long, it offers great investment opportunities in the medium and long term. The systematic risk of the stock market is affecting the valuations of all companies , even those with good fundamentals, but it is these companies that will recover the fastest after the crisis we are going through. b) “Soft Landing” Scenario For this scenario to materialize, inflationary pressures must start to ease , allowing the Fed to raise rates more gently.
"A soft landing seems to be a less likely scenario at this point in time, but it shouldn't be ruled out entirely."
On the other hand, the economy needs to recover the growth rate of 2021 , or at least not contract. If the activity and profits are maintained in the coming quarters, there are good possibilities in this regard. In fact, the labor market has been increasing its participation and unemployment has dropped a lot. Regarding the pandemic, for political and legal reasons, any return to closures or greater restrictions on economic and social activity seems ruled out. As for the war in Europe, a stalemate could arise that forces both parties to make painful concessions and this allows a way out to be proposed. In this scenario, there are mixed results in the mid-term elections . The current administration narrowly loses the lower house, but maintains a balance in the senate. The soft landing scenario assumes that investors slowly digest the changes in monetary policy and this does not cause more serious drops than those already produced. There would still be room for upside in many stocks with good fundamentals , while others with valuations too high for their potential will tend to correct more strongly.
Next, once we have given the most important macroeconomic keys of the current moment, we present you 3 companies whose shares can be an excellent investment alternative in 2022. We will review your monthly Japanese candlestick charts and the MACD indicator to see its behavior, as well as other data of interest.
1. Mosaic Company ( MOS )
Formed in 2004 by the combination of IMC Global and Cargill's fertilizer business, Mosaic is a leading producer of primary crop nutrients, phosphate and potash . The company's assets include phosphate rock mines in Florida, Louisiana, Brazil and Peru, as well as potash mines in Canada, New Mexico and Brazil. Below is the chart of The Mosaic Company ( MOS ) listed on the NYSE: https://preview.redd.it/bz9awlssk7891.png?width=794&format=png&auto=webp&s=fdd1a00d855bd06eab5b84cc6599e638845041ec Between 2007 and 2008 the stock made an inverted V or spike figure from an all-time high of $163.25. In just 4 months, the stock lost all the value gained in the previous trend. The company was in a primary downtrend from early 2011 to mid-2020 , following the Covid-19 crisis. Supply chain problems have increased the trend of raw materials to rise . Among them are the fertilizers that are required globally in industrial quantities as a fundamental supply in food production. As a result, Mosaic stock is up an astronomical 791.5% since March 2020 . The downtrend line was broken in January 2021 and the stock is trading at $57.95, although with a tendency to correct. The next relevant level of resistance is around $89.24. The lines of the MACD indicator, meanwhile, are in bullish territory and with a positive slope, but in a corrective direction apparently. Here we are in the presence of a stock that presents good buying prospects. 4 relevant reasons to invest in Mosaic Company Mosaic Company stock is considered cyclical and belongs to the basic materials sector , specifically the agricultural supply industry. There is no doubt that the limitations Ukraine is suffering as a result of the war and the sanctions imposed by the West on Russia, one of the world's largest producers of fertilizers, will have an impact on agriculture and food production .
“The current context represents a huge opportunity for Mosaic, as it will require increased fertilizer production.”
As Ed Ponsi points out in a report by Tom Bemis for TheStreet :
“Mosaic is the largest producer of potash and phosphate fertilizers in the US.”
“Mosaic shares grew 70.75% last year and have already surpassed that figure by growing 82% year to date. Shares closed at a 10-year high on April 6.”
Among the main aspects worth mentioning we have 4 points:
1. 2021 was one of the best years for the company , with a total income of 12,357 million dollars (+ 42.3%). Its net income reached 1,630 million dollars (+ 144.7%).
2. Its earnings per share increased by 144% in 2021 , from $1.75 to $4.27. In fact, for the first quarter of 2022 they increased 322.8% over the previous year, going from $0.57 to $2.41.
3. It presents a strong tendency to undervaluation with a Price/Earnings Ratio of just 8.2 versus 45.61 for the industry. Its Price/Book Ratio is 1.8.
With the aforementioned earnings metrics and the global context in food production, we believe there is an excellent opportunity to buy the stock right now .
4. Mosaic Company has low indebtedness with a Total Debt/Equity Ratio of only 38.3%.
2. Pfizer (PFE)
Pfizer is one of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies, with annual sales approaching $50 billion, excluding sales of the COVID-19 vaccine. Pfizer sells its products globally with international sales accounting for close to 50% of its total sales . Below is the chart of Pfizer ( PFE ) stock listed on the NYSE: https://preview.redd.it/6hyw1dt3l7891.png?width=772&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d8750f5a5f96cae5908864e59d51774d896babf Pfizer has also been in a primary uptrend since mid-2010 . This was interrupted by a strong correction during 2019 and part of 2020. Since then, the price has resumed its rise, reaching an all-time high of $61.71 in December 2021. The stock is currently trading at $52.47, which represents a decrease of 14.9%. However, true to the behavior of a solid company in the health care sector, a defensive sector, the upward trend remains in force at this time of falling markets . The next support level is around $47.44; so it is likely that the price will soon test this area. The next lower level would be around $27.17. In the lower panel, the 2 lines of the MACD indicator are well above the middle line of the histogram, which confirms bullish momentum in the price, although it tends to slow down a bit . It may be reasonable to let the price correct a bit more around the mentioned support to consider possible buying. 5 Important Things to Consider Before Buying Pfizer Stock Pfizer is considered a defensive value stock. It presents a stable and consolidated business model and belongs to the health care sector , which tends to hold up in the face of large economic fluctuations. We can mention 5 outstanding aspects :
1. 2021 was the company's best year in the last decade, with a total annual revenue of 81,288 million dollars (+ 93.9%).
2. Its quarterly earnings per share have returned to an upward trajectory . The first quarter of 2022 grew by 74.2% compared to the same period of the previous year, going from $0.93 to $1.62.
3. The company has a Price/Earnings Ratio of 11.83 versus 50.28 for the industry, so it has a tendency to undervalue.
Although the Covid-19 pandemic seems to have receded and this means a decrease in the income of the leading pharmaceutical companies, Pfizer has good fundamentals to hold on in the event of a global economic deterioration that seems plausible. Its current valuation looks cheap and may present an opportunity to rotate funds from riskier sectors .
4. As in the previous case, it has a reasonable level of indebtedness with a Total Debt/Equity Ratio of 44.04%.
Faced with an increase in interest rates, you can better manage your debt service and your cash flow than companies with much more indebtedness. In fact, the industry average is 88.81%. "Pfizer plans to have around $25 billion in sales by 2030 from new business developments."
5. The five-year average of its dividends is 3.43% and its Payout Ratio is 43.2%; in such a way that it reasonably remunerates its shareholders .
Pfizer presents important challenges to the extent that many of its patents will expire in this decade. You need to diversify and expand your product portfolio . According to Tom Murphy's note in AP News published on May 10:
"Pfizer is starting to use its COVID-19 cash flow by spending $11.6 billion to venture deeper into a new treatment area.
The New York cancer drug and vaccine maker said Tuesday it will use cash on hand to buy the remaining portion of migraine treatment developer Biohaven Pharmaceutical that it does not already own.
3. Schlumberger N.V. ( SLB )
Schlumberger is the world's largest provider of products and services to the oil and gas industry. It operates its business through multiple segments such as reservoir characterization , drilling and production, among others. It is investing more than any other company in the sector to make its offer more bundled and heterogeneous. Let's look at the chart of Schlumberger stock ( SLB ) listed on the NYSE: Schlumberger stock developed a primary downtrend since mid-2014 , which has continued into early 2022. Its all-time high was $118.76, reached in July 2014. The recovery of hydrocarbon prices and the geopolitical situation due to the war in Europe have been good times for the sector and this company has not been the exception . Since October 2020 the stock has risen 147.7% to a current value of $41.12 . In fact, in the month of January 2022 the downtrend line was broken. The next relevant level of resistance is around $42.96. If the price consolidates around this area, there would be good prospects for a move towards the next one at $54.00. In the lower panel the lines of the MACD indicator have already cut upwards the middle line of the histogram and show a positive slope. It is definitely a buy signal . 2 relevant aspects of Schlumberger actions “As a company in the energy sector, Schlumberger is going to benefit from the cycle of high hydrocarbon prices, deepened by the war in Europe.” According to the interesting report by Laurentian Research in SeekingAlpha published on May 06 , Schlumberger is among the 2 best stocks of service providers in the oil and gas sector: “Oilfield service providers are still in the early stages of recovery from an unprecedented industrial downturn, likely with years of favorable business environment ahead. Against that backdrop, both Halliburton and Schlumberger anticipate a strong Q2 and H2, leading to significant revenue growth and strong margin expansion.” Among the most outstanding aspects of Schlumberger we can mention 2:
At its current price, it presents a reasonable valuation with a Price/Earnings Ratio of 28.13 versus 36.74 for the industry.
The company comes from an extremely negative trajectory between 2016 and 2020, with 4 out of 5 years reflecting net losses, due to the cycle of low hydrocarbon prices . However, the current situation in the global energy market offers an important opportunity. We believe that if the economy does not enter a recession, Schlumberger will be able to leave behind the negative trajectory of recent years.
Its earnings per share, although still very low, grew by 61.9% in the first quarter of 2022 , from $0.21 to $0.34 compared to the same period of the previous year.
Nothing suggests that the conflict is close to ending and this will affect energy prices. Ultimately, oil and gas producers' costs represent reservoir service providers' revenues.
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Years of internal DHS/ FBI memos, emails, and documents — obtained via leaks show facebook and twitter working in collaboration with the FBI/DHS to police "Disinformation" and information that undermines trust in financial institutions News Comments || Link
So I did my analysis on the 30min time frame and showed a symmetrical triangle pattern. The market was pretty bearish and the price had a break of structure on the support level. I waited for a retest on that area and jumped on a LTF and entered the trade through a bearish engulfing tick pattern. Charts and Setups Comments || Link
A. Bộ sách bao gồm những kiến thức cơ bản nhất về thị trường Forex.
Bộ sách forex bao gồm cả cách thức quản lý tiền – money management – hay cả cách sử dụng phần mềm MT4, vốn là phần mềm được sử dụng rất phổ biến tại VN. Kiến thức trong sách là rất bổ ích đối với người nhập môn forex.
Forex 100% - Học cách kiếm tiền từ thị trường ngoại hối
Sách Forex 100 Học cách kiếm tiền từ thị trường Forex
Sách Forex – Giao dịch thành công với phân tích liên thị trường
Sách Forex – Biết bí mật sẽ thành công Pdf
Sách đầu tư Forex – Thị trường ngoại hối – Ed Ponsi
Sách đầu tư Forex – Ebook Better Volume
Sách dạy Forex – Sổ tay mô hình nến Nhật
Sách học Forex – Phân tích kỹ thuật từ A đến Z
Hai con đường riêng – Sách hay về Phân kỳ Forex
Ebook Forex – Trading in the Zone Tiếng Việt
Đạo Trading – Sự thật về Trading của tôi
Bộ sách Đầu Tư Forex và bộ tài liệu tổng hợp rất nhiều các kiến thức về phân tích cơ bản, phân tích kỹ thuật từ cơ bản đến phức tạp, các chiến lược giao dịch hiệu quả từ scalping cho tới dài hạn. Xem thêm: Các sàn giao dịch forex uy tín
B. Tổng hợp các indicator công cụ hỗ trợ giao dịch cực tốt cho Trader
Tổng hợp các chỉ báo công cụ hỗ trợ trong mt4 cho công việc giao dịch của anh em Trader, bao gồm các công cụ rất có ích như indicator hiển thị lợi nhuận theo pip, thời gian còn lại trước khi hình thành nến mới, vẽ đường xu hướng tự động, vẽ kháng cự hỗ trợ, 📷
C. Các công cụ hỗ trợ trading tốt nhất cho Trader (tất nhiên là miễn phí)
1. Các nền tảng biểu đồ - Charting platforms
Một công cụ tối quan trọng của một Trader chính là hệ thống biểu đồ. Tuỳ thuộc vào các thành phần của hệ thống trading mà anh em sử dụng, anh em có thể tham khảo các nền tảng sau: Tradingview: Đây chắc chắn là một trong các công cụ tạo chart phổ biến nhất trong những năm gần đây, nó bao gồm hầu hết mọi thị trường như Forex, Futures, chứng khoán, vv. Với Tradingview, anh em có thể tạo hệ thống của riêng mình, sử dụng nhiều indicator và chia sẻ với cộng đồng Trader; Meta Trader 4: Cái này thì quá quen thuộc rồi, anh em nào chắc cũng biết. Điều mình thích nhất khi sử dụng Meta Trader 4 là nó có độ trễ rất thấp khi chuyển từ chart này sang chart khác, và có hàng loạt các chỉ báo được cài sẵn. Tuy nhiên phần mềm này chắc sẽ không phù hợp lắm với anh em trade theo phong cách Scalping, còn nếu anh em theo kiểu Swing hay Position thì quá ổn. Stockcharts: Đây là hệ thống tiên phong về chart chứng khoán và offer nhiều chart khác nhau như Mô hình nến, Renko, Ichimoku, vv. Traderwave: Một nền tảng mới nhưng rất tốt, nhanh và dễ sử dụng. Công cụ này tập trung vào các thị trường Châu Á – Biển Đông. Xem thêm: Hướng dẫn mở tài khoản giao dịch forex
2. Các bộ lọc chứng khoán – Stock scanners
Chỉ cần một vài click chuột, anh em có thể tìm được các loại chứng khoán theo nhiều tiêu chí khác nhau: đạt các mức cao trong nhiều năm, hay tăng trưởng trong 3 tháng trở lại, vv. Finviz: Đây là một bộ lọc chứng khoán hoạt động rất mạnh mẽ và có nhiều tiêu chí cho anh em lựa chọn: mức lợi tức nhận được, độ tăng trưởng, lợi nhuận biên ròng, vv; và nhiều tiêu chí lọc kỹ thuật như đường trung bình động, chỉ báo, Mô hình nến, vv. Busystock: Hệ thống này cung cấp các bộ lọc đa dạng theo phân tích cơ bản và phân tích kỹ thuật. Zacks: Đây là hệ thống chuyên cung cấp các bộ lọc theo các tiêu chí phân tích cơ bản.
3. Các công cụ Backtest
Profitspi: Một hệ thống nền web giúp anh em backtest chứng khoán sử dụng các tiêu chí khác nhau như đường trung bình động, mô hình nến và khối lượng. Một cái hay của hệ thống này là anh em không cần kiến thức về lập trình, cứ click vào mà backtest thôi. Paststat: Hệ thống này khá giống Profitspi nhưng có thêm tính năng khám phá các mô hình theo giai đoạn của chứng khoán. QuantConnect: Hệ thống này tập trung backtest các chiến thuật trading phức tạp, và đi đôi với điều đó là anh em phải có kiến thức về lập trình. Review chi tiết sàn Exness Forex
4. Các nguồn tin Forex
Cộng đồng Trader rộng lớn, nơi anh em có thể học hỏi chiến thuật, công cụ, và chia sẻ trading tips, vv. Nếu anh em dùng Meta Trader 4, anh em có thể tích hợp bảng tin Forexfactory vào phần mềm tại đây. Forexlive: Cung cấp thông tin cập nhật hàng phút về thị trường Forex và insight về các lệnh stop order trên thế giới. FXStreet: Được coi là diễn đàn trading lớn nhất về các chỉ báo, price action, các vùng supply demand, vv. /m/02_cz4, /m/018m33, /m/0523l9z, /m/09v1vkh, /m/0b6lh6h, /m/03gjzw8, /m/02h0y3, /m/01033t4m, /g/11c5qn0gq3, /m/0by71l Nguồn: Học Viện Giao Dịch Forex | WolfForex.com
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