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Pivot price trading strategyThis trading technique was developed based on what is known as pivot prices and makes almost no use of indicators. As any system is not fail-safe and must first be evaluated in a demo account by the trader.
It is the development of a particular trader who shared it in a forum, so it may have its limitations. It is included in this article for educational purposes as I think it has some interesting ideas.
1. To begin with, the author makes the premise that when analyzing a daily chart, price tends to move from one key point as a round number to the next by about 500 points. In this way you have a structure similar to a network in the graphs which shows horizontal lines at 500 and 1000 points. We can say that these constitute the main horizontal lines. Likewise, we can divide each area of 500 points and place lines smaller than 250 and 125 points. For example, if we have GBP/USD, we can define 1.5000 , 1.5500 and 1.6000 as main lines, and between these we can mark 1.5125, 1.5250, 1.5625, 1.5750 and 1.5875.
2. In the weekly charts we define our preference regarding the possible price movements for the following days, however a lot can happen in a week, therefore it is recommended to be quite flexible regarding the conclusions. The daily charts tell us the story of now. On the weekly charts we are looking for a candle that is moving counter to the general trend from the main lines we drew earlier, or a candle that has closed above/below some of these main lines.
3. Now, what we need to look for are convincing pivot prices (not pivot points) that signal a possible short-term trend change. The important thing in this case is to be able to enter the market at the right time. The following image shows the structure of those pivots up and down:
The pivot price is fully confirmed until the third candlestick (confirmation candlestick) closes.
In this way, a long position on a pivot low formed in a downtrend can be opened at the opening of the fourth candlestick, however it is also recommended to wait for a good pullback on the move from the pivot to the top of the candlestick. of confirmation. In this way, we avoid entering a position where we can get caught in a pullback which may actually be a continuation of the trend.
Likewise, the author of the strategy states that he usually trades in more than one pair at a time, because when pivot prices appear in one pair, they usually also do so in others simultaneously.
Therefore, to open a long position, do the following:
*Note: The discussion in this Point 3 is for low pivots , however the exact opposite procedure can be applied for high pivots .
4. To confirm the signals, some indicators can also be used, such as the following:
Many traders have grown to love the RSI and prefer it over other technical indicators. For example, in a bull market, the RSI will fluctuate between 40 and 90 and retrace to the 40-50 zone (on market corrections) where it normally finds support and then continues its upward trend.
The opposite is true for a bear market where the RSI fluctuates between 10 and 60 with the 50-60 zone acting as resistance. There are actually multiple ways to use the RSI, but we can use the ones mentioned above quite successfully.
5. Stop Loss and Take Profit. For a bullish position, we recommend a stop loss placed 10 pips below the daily pivot low (Pivot Low) and if the price moves in our favor we can move the stop to the low of each subsequent daily candle following the successful entry.
Likewise, we can put a Take Profit target on any of the Main Lines that we defined in Point 1, depending on the price action. The opposite procedure applies for bearish positions.
Actually, when it comes to Taking Profit, it depends on the personal preference of each trader. Some probably prefer to stay in position as long as possible while others are probably more cautious and close their positions at the slightest adverse signal from the market.
Pivot Points ExampleBelow is an example where the principles presented above are explained:
In this daily chart for June 2011 for the EUUSD, we see the formation of a pivot price plus a confirmation candle that tells us that there is a good chance that the price will fall. In this example, a bearish position was opened on June 9 with a stop loss 10 pips above the pivot high on June 7. The opening of this position was made based on the following 1-hour chart:
Now, on the 1 hour chart we draw Fibonacci retracements as detailed in point 3 and wait for the price retracement to occur, which stopped precisely at the 61.8 level from which it began to fall sharply. We wait for a pivot high and confirmation candle in that area. In this case, the pivot high on the 1 hour chart was generated logically in the same direction as the daily pivot high.
The position was opened at the open of the 9am GMT candlestick. The trade is allowed to continue and one can even consider increasing the position size if there is a retracement to the still valid pivot high . The following graph marks the area (light blue rectangle) in which we can try to add to the current position.
Note that new Fibonacci retracements (green lines) have been drawn using the new low formed by the fall in the price of the EUUSD, which occurred shortly before opening the short position in the market.
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