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![]() | The End game has begun. Stagflationary 1972-73 Price pump or Deflationary 2008 bust.? I am prepared for both ;) submitted by DesmondMilesDant to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] Disclaimer : Apologies beforehand for a lot of verbose because of the final newsletter. For quick read up i suggest reading "Tl;dr section" ( headings ) and for the reasons behind it are included in the detailed "Experiment section". Intro: “I felt a great disturbance in the force as if millions of voices slowly and wildly got together and then there was an uprising against the government and the financial institutions”Sorry guys, I was supposed to send this the day before yesterday ( great movie ) but unfortunately I got caught up in a celebration we are having over here. So it's the start of the weekend. Y’all know what that means. I'm not talking about having a party lol, that is for me. You guys have to decipher this long post so that you can protect yourself from the upcoming danger that I am seeing. In short you’re fucked if you don’t read this especially institutions and hedge funds. Just for this week please avoid strip clubs. This one's for you guys because you read my post. ( I like to think so ) Retail public especially retards i don’t have words for you guys. You guys can chill this weekend because all you do is sh9t on my post. Might as well sh9t on this too. I don’t care since all you’re obsessed with is Ryan Cohen and $BBBY. So when you’re finally over him after getting drunk this weekend then you can go ahead and read this post. Could be worth your time. As for people asking me why I don't give my opinions regarding meme stocks. Well folks the reason is simple. We are still in a bear market according to my calculations. So it's written somewhere in the gospel of investing that bear markets are the opportunities to analyze value companies, not meme companies which are about to be purge in the upcoming mega crash as an offering to please the gods of stock market. Yes you “You-tube” folks the crash hasn’t even started yet. We still have -53% to go from here till March 2023 as my base case. Don't even ask me about my worst case. For that just open the Dow Jones 1929-1932 chart. Tl;dr and Td;du folks : ( Too long didn't read, Too dumb didn’t understand ) We have already discussed this : Buy 4 months/2 months/1 months puts i.e Dec 30/Oct 29/Sept 29 at the money with strike price near about "200 day moving average = 200dMA" in $SPY last week of august if it comes. It already did one time on August 16 and i think the top is already in. So you’re gonna profit regardless. Invalidation would be three white soldier candles above 200dMA of course in daily chart. For positions go scroll down. ( I will make you work for it at-least. xD ) We have a long way to go friends. Now for those folks who want a detailed explanation about everything let’s dive in. Respected Traders and Investors, How are you guys doing? It’s been a long time hasn’t it. God I was gone for a while and had Ni-san use my Reddit account for a few days. First of all, I'm gonna apologize for the Shzio post by my brother Itachi. Man, it felt like it messed up my brains for a while there. It was so damn trippy. So I highly highly advise you guys not to go and read it a second time. Please, it's for your own health. Regardless i love my brother analysis coz he thinks like no other normal people do in the world of trading/investing. So, I take full responsibility for my actions and if things don't go as planned out in the above charts ( i.e the mega crash doesn’t happen you know ) then you’re not gonna hear from us. P.s. We promised you that we will do these posts only in bear markets. Even if the USA goes into depression for 10 to 15 years we will post in a week or two until we visit ath ( all time high ) once again. One may ask why not do this stuff in the bull market? Guys you have to understand we are not bull market specialists. For bull markets it's generally advised to follow moon boys on twitter, tik-tok, You-tube etc. They are more educated and well informed than us in that department with a huge audience behind them. ( They spend so much on marketing lol ) Recap : Predictions 2022 so far. I don’t usually like to do this because my readers already know about this but it’s time to back-test how accurate we ( i.e. me and my brother ) have been this whole time especially to show random people who are new to reading these kinds of posts especially when it’s season finale.
https://preview.redd.it/6n7xv1xs52j91.png?width=1851&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef518b9218d0bc29d830fc61927009ece8a66438
https://preview.redd.it/ictvxtex52j91.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=1905d15b9028016b853e12dd817097c285d2eac7
https://preview.redd.it/brojy4p462j91.png?width=743&format=png&auto=webp&s=a96db2532fe7643a3b03e3f2293102e8c28a06e2
https://preview.redd.it/da60ccei62j91.png?width=818&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce9e342a4a1f31b7ed9cd4931c8511bdd9368ae5 And then there were bond, commodity, Dxy calls that we are not even mentioning. What this all means is that the stock markets have been performing as we had hoped for since February which is like 6-7 months ago. So i guess we are not a broken clock and actually do provide the exact days or should i say the time horizon. Am I a member of secret society i.e. "Illuminati” or have contacts in "Pay pal mafia" ? No guys. I am not a member of secret society nor do i have any contacts. My brother do though. I do want to manage the portfolio of wealthy clients like my brother someday but I'm too lazy. I just want to take bets and watch anime and Tv shows my entire life. I just finished West world and now i guess i will watch episode 1 of “House of dragons”. ( Why did that producer said bad things about Emilia. Hmm ) As for anime recommendation man its getting hard to find good ones. I'm just waiting for Chainsaw man now. About my self. Before all of this I was a Computer Science student whose only good skill was learning a hybrid application development platform called Flutter ( By Google ) but now I just write detailed and boring posts on Wall Street bets about anything that comes to my mind for you guys. My predictions come right because of you folks so thank you for taking trades and also I just basically copy pasted 2008 charts ( 32nd death week ) like I do with Git-hub while programming. Now will I be wrong in the future? Of course I will be. I’m no economist. I just make cases i.e stock market = 1972-73 or 2008 and just bet on them. Also a big hedge fund guy might find my post someday and take the opposite trade against me wrecking people who followed my advice. Hence i always tell you guys “Do your own research“ “This is not financial advice” even though it will be right most of the time. You absolutely should not follow anybody w/o checking out at-least 10 other guys. Why take my advice ? So now that we have cleared some of the confusion which I couldn't in my Wsb guest talk appearance you might be thinking why we should even consider your advice in the top 10 folks we watch. You’re a nobody. Well folks in my defense i would say it's because I gradually improved myself. Earlier my posts were shitty but now they are getting better especially my T.A. And I'm also learning economics day by day. Do you know guys I didn't wanted to write this as final post coz I was actually busy working on other post like “Deciphering Stagflation 70's” and “Thermodynamics in Economics” as my farewell post. Yes it's true guys the US economy is one giant open system. That’s how Elon Musk and Jerome Powell do calculations about economics. xD Well enough spoilers about the next season. I know you guys are getting bored. So lets now finally jump in what i wanted to actually talk about. Experiment : Tools :” I mean the Technicals i will be using today includes : -> Candle sticks -> Elliot wave with Fibonacci -> Stochastic Rsi -> My favorite which never ever lies : Pvt(O) -> At last my “Ketlner channels” Procedure : Step 1 : Forex Markets Eur-usd Eur-usd : Have you ever seen such a bearish chart in your life both on a weekly and monthly basis? I mean as much as I love European countries but I have to say your Eur-usd charts sucks equally much. Putin owns you guys this winter. Italy and Germany are already suffering so much with 10x bills gas + electricity if compared with 2021 so i can't even imagine about countries like Spain, Greece etc. Okay so I'm gonna stop myself now with the pessimism and dive into Technicals. Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )
Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )
Result : I can confidently say with 1000% certainty that Eur-usd is going down. Thank you madam Lagarde. You’re doing such a fine job by selling German Bund and buying Italian bonds. Congratulations to you and your PEP tool (Lol, guys this woman is bat-sh9t crazy) Gbp-usd Gbp-usd : Well first Sir Mr Bailey. I have to say I'm a big fan of your honesty if you are reading this. I mean in today's world it's hard to find someone that honest in a government job. So guys we know inflation is double digit’s over here ( heading to 13% or was it 15% in coming months ) and in September the Bank of England is going with 50 bps. So we already know that Uk is gonna have more than 2Q of -ve Gdp. I hope you Uk folks survive considering you're gonna lose jobs, probably go into economic depression because recession is everybody’s base case even of Mr Bailey. So enough details let’s do analysis. Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )
Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )
Result : I can confidently say Gbp-usd is going down. Mr Soros if you’re listening to this, let's break the “Bank of England” once again. Just for good old times sake. Usd-Jpy Usd-jpy : If i tell you anything about this forex pair I’m probably Bs’ing you. It’s true guys. Even Mr Kuruda the governor of Boj doesn’t know where the Usd-jpy is gonna go. But what we can speculate is if the dollar becomes so much stronger due to the weakness in the Eur-usd equation then Dxy is gonna pump past 110 and the dollar becomes stronger. Got it. So I could easily play this approach into my thesis by telling you yes this pair is just gonna go up. But I will not do that. Instead I'm gonna play a devil’s advocate here saying Usd-jpy will go down. So let’s analyze things which are a total waste of your and my time because I'm gonna reverse this forex you will see how. Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )
Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )
So since I took the bear case it doesn't look like any bearish to me. Don't you agree? So our devil in devil’s advocate looks weak. So to fit our thesis lets reverse this. This is kinda like physics or Math kind of stuff where we proof things by assuming inverse. Result : I cannot confidently say but I will say Jpy-usd is going up to 148 at my favorite dot com times where Dxy went 120. Hence i’m selling my Yen trust with ticker $FXY. Step 2 : DXY. A basket of forex currencies. You must be wondering, I'm gonna introduce another colorful RGB crayon drawing chart on both weekly and monthly. Sorry to disappoint you folks but I'm not doing that. Instead let’s use our brains. We know that US dollar Index i.e. Dxy is used to measure the value of the dollar a/g basket of 6 currencies. The Euro, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, British pound and Swedish krona. Now I'm not gonna explain you here why dollar is global reserve currency or dollar has more liquidity so let’s just assume that. So what happens now is when Eur-usd becomes weaker, investors usually go risk off and buy the safest asset in the world i.e Dollar. Hence the Dxy goes stronger which suggests the dollar is getting stronger coz european buddies will exchange for dollars coz its very liquid and due to interest rate differentials. ( Remember Gbp-usd is an exception to interest rate differential coz what's happening over there is interest rates will go up but their currency is still losing its strength ) We have discussed a thesis in past letters already and came to a conclusion and I quote. “Eur-usd is a mirror image of the Dxy chart.” Remember this for your lifetime. Especially you Gen-z. I wasn’t gonna post a chart but then I realized I should for new folks who are lazy to read past posts. Eur-usd breaks parity and goes 0.80 levels Dxy will be 120 for sure. In monthly Dxy is super bullish. And on a weekly basis it's trying to close above 107 i believe. Hence your Voldemort asset class dropped -8% i guess. Right ? Mirror chart : DXY vs Eur-usd Result : I can confidently say Dollar or DXY is getting stronger in comparison to Euro, Gbp and Jpy. Hence DXY to 120 is back on the table according to the “20yrs of wyckoff accumulation” pattern. If you cleanly break 110-112 i must say equities especially the Spx is gonna visit to my $3200 level. Now some Cnbc or Bloomberg guys who stole my research and didn’t gave me credit 2-3 months ago used to come on tv and say things like “Oh in 2018 Spx visited 200wMA so it makes sense that this cycle which is even more tightening compared to last makes sense to visit this range.” So folks now the Spx has shifted its 200wMA/50mMA = $3500-$3600. But these clowns oops economists don't know that we should take a look at the monthly chart. Once you open that. Your pants are about to drop coz in the last tightening we visited not 200wMA but 100 monthly moving average i.e 100mMA. Yeah let’s go visit makachev vs oliviera in oct 23rd ufc 280. So if we cross paths over there I will tell you we are going to Spx $2873 i.e. somewhere around $2800-2900 which my close friend Dr Burry suggested too. Hence he sold + he is shorting coz he has relieved every moment in 2008. So he knows what’s coming next. You guys don’t. Step 3 :Eur-usd Implied Fed funds 100-CME:GEZ2023 ( Not gonna use Elliot wave + Fib trend starting here now ) This is like gonna be super high level stuff even far above my pay grade. Only Zoltan can explain this using repo markets but since he is busy I will try to explain it in a funny way. So if you might have watched Cnbc this past week two economists were arguing about how Fed funds have priced in 4% already but one might be saying no it has only priced in 3.4-3.5%. So who is right? If you watch “Everything money” by my suggestion then Mo came to the conclusion that the reason he is saying 4% is because the Fed is doing QT + rate hikes which Mo still does not believe. So who is right and what is the right explanation for 4% ? Imo they both are right but the explanation is wrong. The reason one should present about the 4% Fed funds argument is that in Eur-usd implied Fed funds went to 4%. Hence the market has priced 4% in the euro dollar banking system. But if you take only the dollar banking system in Usa then we look at yields of 2 yr and 10 yr which are hinting that Fed funds 3.4-3.5% is already priced in by the markets. Eur-usd implied Fed funds. Monthly and weekly time frame analysis :
Result : I can confidently say that we are going up here technically. So J. Powell, could you please back me up on this. Zoltan agrees with me. Snyder doesn’t. ( Just remember implied fed funds can go up due to Eur-usd weakness. So its kinda like indirect interest rate hike for markets. Add QT on top of that. Hence Fed is dovish in Fomc minutes for rate hikes ) Step 4 : HYG & LQD : The corporate bonds HYG Hyg : This product is designed to replicate a benchmark which provides a broad representation of the U.S. dollar-denominated high yield liquid corporate bond market. The high yield bond space has been cracked wide open by ETFs, as these products have offered numerous ways for investors to take advantage of this space. High yields can be a great addition to a yield-starved portfolio, as they can offer yields into the double digits for those willing to take on the risks that come along with it. The high returns come from riskier bond choices who have to pay out higher ratios to compensate investors for high risks. This means that the holdings of these ETFs will have higher chances of defaults, and could potentially leave investors out to dry. But those who have done their homework on the holdings of a particular “junk” bond fund have the ability to generate strong returns from these powerful products. HYG keeps most of its assets inside of the U.S., though it does offer a slice of international exposure as well. The ETF is dominated by corporate bonds, the majority of which have investment grades between B and BB. This product will make a great income addition to any investor who is fully aware of the risks a high yield bond product carries. Weekly time frame analysis :
Monthly time frame analysis :
LQD : I leave it up to you guys. Cmon at least do one. Result : I cannot confidently say that we are going down on a monthly time frame ( i need to see more data ) but yah sure on weekly we are going down because of that deadly candle that folks have been talking about. Step 5 : IEI/HYG : Government bond price / Corporate bond price. IEI/HYG : Double check below thing. IEI/HYG : If it goes up then credit spreads are widening. ( Bad thing i.e risk off ) IEI/HYG : If it goes down then credit spreads are tightening. ( Good thing i.e. risk on ) Weekly time frame analysis :
Monthly time frame analysis :
Result : I cannot confidently say that we are going up on a monthly time frame ( i need to see more data ) but yah sure on weekly we are going up. Step 6 : ( Super scary ) : Velocity of m2 or m1 money supply i.e v = us gdp / m1 or m2. Velocity of M2 This is a very debatable topic. Only the pros have the right to argue about this stuff and no one else. Peter lynch once told me during my time travel visit that people worry that the velocity of money supply is going up way too fast then we are gonna have depression and if the velocity of money supply goes down then too we are gonna have depression. So which one is it? Anyways Q3 2020 : 1.149 was the highest reading. Currently we are trying to break it. Q2 2022 : 1.147 "The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy. This is called an expanding economy." ~ By Fred website. So go out there and ask your banking friends and tell them please explain the concept of money supply in today's terms. Not an old term. So I too went to my brother for advice. He told me “ F off “ Result : “F off” Step 7 : Gold We are not gonna do weekly and monthly time frame analysis on this. Some of you guys may be like “Dude, I'm an old man with agricultural land. I wanna own gold like my ancestors from 18th century coz i believe in stagflation, parabolic move, end of the world, negative debasement hedge blah blah” So i need charts. Old man's Gold : Old man you need to chill. We are gonna use our brain like Peter Schiff. So we know, gold doesn't love that his nemesis dollar is going up. Now if you can tell me how high Dxy will go up then i can tell you that the top of Dxy will be the bottom of Gold. Also gold doesn’t love financial crisis or bank runs. In my world gold is a phoenix who rises from ashes. Meaning if we plunge into the abyss then gold is gonna drag us out of there first. Then indices move and other asset classes. Digital Gold : As for young folks, you love the King of Voldemort asset class don’t you? So go buy it at amazon bottom i.e. $4-5k or my favorite Richard heart level -83% i.e 10,690. Or if you really don't have the patience like probably 99% of the entire world population you buy some % of this commodity for whatever reasons these guys are selling you at $20k. I shall rest my case now. Result : Dollar i.e. Dxy up = Gold down and vice versa. Step 8 : TLT/JNK : It’s kinda like IEI/HYG Can you guys do this please? Hint : Bullish divergence on weekly and monthly. Meaning TLT ( 20yr treasury bond etf by black rock ) buying over Junk bonds i.e. JNK Step 9 : US Oil. Let's go Brandon and the government. Just how much are you gonna manipulate the best inflation hedge alive. You guys have already killed my Gold. Yes you J.P. Morgan traders, I hate you. May your bank dies in upcoming crash and have Panic of 2023 just like Knickbocker crisis in 1907. Only then I shall have my vengeance a/g those rumors you circulated back in the days. So guys you probably would know this that our Usa Government try to manipulate oil market just to please people and ask for votes. These are some of their stupid tactics.
This is the most manipulated market I have ever seen in my 100 yr+ of lifetime. So traders if your conclusion from my above observation was that we should short Oil lemme tell you something in double quotes. “Be afraid of Putin’s Winter Oil boogeyman”. "Contango is a dangerous thing that futures creates" You don’t short Oil in winter. Period. Heck you shouldn’t even trade Oil. Only the expert can do this because it's called “Widow Maker” i.e. the losses in this commodity trading could be catastrophic planetary devastation like. Tip : Btw currently oil is in downwards wedge and it could break to upside and we go up in winter but Oil too like gold doesn't love Dxy going up. So kinda mixed signals i guess. Let's see who shall prevail bulls or bears of oil. Result : Dollar i.e. Dxy up = Oil down and vice versa but Winter is coming/ Contango = Maybe Oil up. Step 10 : Powell curve i.e.10 yr - 3 month, 2 yr - 3 month ( Pvt(o) and Elliot wave doesn't work here ) Do you guys remember the talk we had with Powell earlier this year when he was trying to explain us that the inversion of the 10 yr - 2 yr curve doesn't mean anything and unless the near term curve inverts it's all okay. Well folks Powell near time curves are close to getting inverted. Therefore you’re seeing these Fed officials talk dovish recently. Coz if they invert Fed will lose their remaining 0.0000001% credibility. So let’s analyze them on a weekly time frame because on a monthly time frame they look super super bearish to me and there is no chance that the curve won’t invert at some point later on. J Powell/ Fed Curves : Us10y-Us03m , Us02y-Us03m Weekly time frame analysis :
Larry Summers former Fed chairman came recently to Bloomberg saying that the Fed has shown in latest minutes that they don’t even know what they are doing. Hence they Bs’ing us in their statement. I mean guys just read these hawkish and dovish points yourself. Also do check out the hidden statements in minutes which are pieces of advice for billionaires about liquidity and t-bills. Don’t forget my warning about bank runs. They are coming. My bet is Well’s Fargo Oct 2022/23 = Lehman brothers Oct 2008 or you could also go with lowest read by a bank in Fed stress test. Hawkish vs Dovish vs Billionaire's ( Highlighted in blue ) Fed minutes. As for individual bonds and overall yield curve : Bonds :
Yield curve :
Credits : Eurodollar University. By Jeff Snyder Note : Yield should be higher if the time horizon is higher. Meaning shorter end like 2 yr to 5 yr should yield less than 10 yr and 20 yr normally due to unknown risks associated in far future. But look here in these charts. A 52 w t-bill is yielding more than 20 yr and 10 yr bonds. That’s insane. It tells us there is a danger in next 1-2yrs as compared to far in future. The curve has gone banana's b/w 26 w t-bill to 10 yr bond. After 10 yr to 20 yr curve looks so good and why won't it. Because after the most horrible decade in entire history of Usa will come a little less horrible decade. Haha. Result : I can confidently say yields are going up in respective bonds. But will basic yield curve i.e us10y-us02y will steepen or invert more is out of my pay grade. Step 11 : VIX. It looks so ready to pop anytime. I mean what do i even say here. This whole year traders are buying Vix calls in 20 and shorting equities and as the Vix goes 30 they sell their calls and buy puts. Meanwhile longing their equities position. So smart Vix traders, it's time to integrate the mega crash in your calculations. Meaning do the first phase of second part but leave tf out of second phase of second part i.e. don't buy puts on Vix and don't try to long equity in 30 coz this time folks are going to promised Vix 40+. Result : Vix is going up. Reason : It's mid terms + Putin x Jinpig x Biden at G8 = Volatility in Sept - Nov. Conclusion : Financial derivation = Take those steps into consideration that you are confident in your analysis. So I chose my Eur-usd pokemon. Reason : I am quite confident in my analysis and Lagarde. Plus Fed minutes made a commentary about this that dollar is looking so strong as comparison to Euro. Maybe this too played a part in their recent dovish commentary. Assuming : Eur usd is going down coz Europe is f’ed. ( We were most confident about this in all of our steps. Also my birdie told me 0.93 eur-usd traders have risen from their grave in options market ) Above assumption ( proving in step 1 t.a. ) will mean :
But what about bonds?
Final Result : Every step we proved above using technical analysis on weekly and monthly time frame is being backed by my financial derivation except one thing. Will us10y-us02y curve invert more or steepen.? Coz steepening is bad for dollar strength whereas more inversion is good for dollar strength i.e. Dxy. P.s. I think i'm so confused. Damn these bonds are tough to read. Note : I forgot Dr copper. Lol. Why is it going up when Gold and other metals is going down? *** Illuminati said : "Coz Dxy move up or bond yields move up is not because of rate hikes. They all are priced in. It's because of pseudo rate hikes on the Global market that is causing dollar to strengthen. This is due to QT + Eur-usd , Gbp-usd going down. Throw Japanese yen in there too but its chart is going up coz its Usd-jpy pair not Jpy-usd. Just like i said before too. Farewell : Thank you guys for your patience in reading an 8yr old post with naruto references w/o even mentioning Naruto anywhere coz Itachi stole the show. xD I am so tired guys coz i was busy writing stuff for you guys whatever was coming to my mind and leaving no mistake in my final calculations. Take care guys. I hope one of you becomes a billionaire in this Wsb group and then pump meme stock for future generations. So suck the life out of me in the comments section. I will reply to every single one of your queries one last time. ( Now playing David Guetta : Just one last time ) Again like i always say. Don't forget your friends and family. Call them once every week. Be humble, stay safe and eat healthy. With lots of love Regards Uchiha x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x THE END Sayonara...!!! |
![]() | submitted by IIaKeTuK to bnbchainofficial [link] [comments] Title TL;DR
INTRODUCTIONAs Web3 becomes more and more popular, the industry is seeing an increase in interest from both retail users and institutions. The trustless nature of blockchain technology allows multiple parties involved in a transaction to execute with 100% guarantees for each side once conditions are met. That creates enormous opportunities for new business cases to be developed. At the time of writing, decentralized finance’s (DeFi) total value locked (TVL) is $41 billion, according to DefiLlama,https://preview.redd.it/cc7m3dir5j3a1.png?width=1348&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9dd7d6481172a3b2e5d2093a76b8403d114d657 Decentralized finance (DeFi) total value locked (TVL) (Source). Blockchain oracles have been in the Web3 space since 2015, bridging the gap between deterministic siloed blockchains and probabilistic real-world data, allowing multiple use cases on the blockchain that could not have been possible otherwise. By design dApps are supposed to be trustless, always running in the way they were designed. Oracles are a critical piece of the infrastructure ensuring that data can be trusted before it reaches the blockchain. For the smart contracts that rely on external data, execution oracles have to be fast, reliable, decentralized, and resistant to any type of attack. The purpose of this report is to dive deeper into oracles’ value, identify bottlenecks, explore innovations in the space, and provide recommendations on designing the best oracle setup to ensure optimal protocol performance with the most accurate data feeds in the shortest time. What Is a Blockchain Oracle?First, let’s do a quick recap on blockchain oracles. Oracles are decentralized applications that gather, validate, and deliver off-chain data to smart contracts on the blockchain. Similarly, they can do the same for delivering on-chain data to off-chain systems. Oracles are middleware connecting smart contracts on blockchains to off-chain data providers, sources and systems. Without oracles, smart contract applications would be limited to executing using only on-chain data.If an oracle is corrupted, the correctness of the result of the execution of the smart contract will be compromised, potentially causing enormous losses. Blockchain oracles are a crucial part of the ecosystem. Flash loan attacks, orchestrated oracle manipulation, and lengthy latency during extremely volatile times add up to the complexity of the infrastructure a dApp has to monitor when building its protocols. Latency and FrequencyLatency and frequency are two key parameters that determine the performance of an oracle, and a formula can be more complex taking multiple parameters into consideration.Latency is the time taken for an off-chain data feed to be available to use for a smart contract on-chain after triggering a condition that requires off-chain data with a transaction. Latency can also be used in the context of data freshness, i.e., how old the last data feed is prior to being published on-chain. The latency formula depends on multiple factors.
Frequency is how often the price is updated on a blockchain. In other words, how often the price update triggers (Deviation Threshold, Heartbeat Threshold or requester contract) publishing a new price. In a highly volatile market, the frequency of updates might be bigger because the triggering parameter such as the Deviation Threshold moves more often. The more frequent, almost real-time updates, especially during times of high volatility might contribute to network congestion if the blockchain throughput is low. Oracle RelayersA relayer is a general term for a third party that relays some information from one party to another. In the context of blockchain, a relayer submits a user’s transaction to the blockchain network on their behalf and pays the associated gas fee. Oracles usually operate across multiple blockchains and one option for oracle architecture to achieve cross-chain interoperability is to use a third-party relayer design to transmit data across blockchains.https://preview.redd.it/p23yl51u5j3a1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=da2e1dc083dce7b9a7f4db5ad6924580bae22360 Relayers in oracle design can be used to bridge reported data to other blockchains (Source). Some potential drawbacks to using relayer architecture are increased latency (users must wait for data to first be delivered to the primary blockchain, then they must wait for it to be bridged to a secondary blockchain or Layer2 network) and responsiveness, as the the relay model requires a set of highly available and incentivized third-party relayers to bridge oracle data from one chain to another. Data Sources/PublishersData sources are third parties that have access to the information in real-time, and can be divided into various categories
METHODOLOGYA qualitative data collection approach has been used to further deep dive into the existing oracle landscape. A semi-structured interview for the case study was selected to gather information about oracle use by the ten largest DeFi protocols in the market accounting for hundreds of millions of TVL.All Chainlink, Binance Oracle, Pyth Network and Band Protocol documentation in service of the above-mentioned protocols has been reviewed and analyzed as a part of the case study. DATA COLLECTIONA semi-structured interview was selected to gather information about oracle use by various DeFi protocols in the market. Participants were selected based on their TVL and trading volume.The purpose of this paper is to identify and analyze the bottlenecks in the industry, as well as discover new options and provide recommendations on oracle use. The limitations of the case study: CTOs and lead engineers of the largest subset of DeFi protocols were selected to interview. Smaller DeFi lending and borrowing protocols and small DEXs were not included. The list of questions for the interview is provided below.
VALIDATION THROUGH CASE STUDIESThe results from the survey using keywords analysis and transcribed data provided insights on how DeFi protocols are using oracles, what the limitations and challenges are, and sheds the light on how DeFi protocols mitigate risks relative to the industry.Key Findings:
ORACLE TYPESThe very first blockchain oracle was centralized and served the industry well by supplying the necessary data to the blockchain. But as the industry matured, different oracle designs emerged to solve myriad issues with the centralized model. Analysis of documentation from a variety of oracle providers indicate that their designs vary depending on multiple parameters (eth source):1. Number of Data Sources. Oracles that are connected to multiple sources and generate the average price from different sources are called aggregated price oracles. For example, Chainlink, Binance Oracle, Pyth Network, Band Protocol are all aggregated price feed oracles as compared to Uniswap which is a single source oracle. 2. Location of Data Source. Data sources for oracles can be on-chain or off-chain. Some of the largest off-chain data providers are the largest CEXsconnected through APIs to oracles nodes where data is pulled, validated, signed, and published on-chain. The largest on-chain data sources are DEXs such as PancakeSwap for BNB chain and Uniswap for Ethereum. DEXs provide prices based on the invariant curve exchange rate for cryptocurrency pairs. 3. Centralized or Decentralized. Oracles are classified as centralized or decentralized depending on their trust model and consensus mechanism. One of the very first oracles in the space on Ethereum called Provable (formerly Oraclize) is a centralized oracle provider but now most are decentralized. . 4. Push or Pull. Oracles that automatically update cryptocurrency prices on chain are called push oracles and oracles that need an active request to update cryptocurrency prices are called pull oracles. Push oracles publish prices on-chain when triggered by one of two indicators: Deviation Threshold: If the cryptocurrency price is different from the previous price by more than 0.1% -1% (varies for different pairs) then the push oracle is activated to update the price on-chain. Heartbeat Threshold: If the cryptocurrency price doesn’t change within 1-10 minutes (depending on the parameters set) then the push oracle is activated to update the price on-chain. 5. Type of Data Source. Oracles can specialize in many types of data including cryptocurrency prices, commodities prices, FX prices, trade, weather, sports outcomes and statistics, identity, DNS lookups, and more. TWAP ORACLESWhile most of the oracles in the space are off-chain and decentralized, time-weighted average price (TWAP) oracles are different. TWAP oracles give the average price of a token for a determined period of time versus oracles that provide mean or weighted average prices aggregated from multiple data sources at a given moment. TWAP oracles are based on DEX prices and use the exchange rate of token A to token B as the price-determining factor. DEXs are the only source of truth for the price of the tokens that are not listed and traded on larger exchanges and there are no other providers available. For example, Uniswap TWAP V2.https://preview.redd.it/3lxrdy5w5j3a1.png?width=1360&format=png&auto=webp&s=db4f9ac3a7893e7815ce7a528790d77eda7f6fab The time-weighted average price (TWAP) calculation methodology supported by the Uniswap V2 automatic market maker (AMM) (Source). A TWAP oracle has several limitations. It is a lagging indicator, so if a cryptocurrency price is volatile, the TWAP will not accurately reflect the price, which results in a higher risk of under-collateralization. TWAP oracles pull their price data from a single source only, making it more likely that low-cap asset prices off of a particular DEX are not representative of the broader market price. TWAP oracles do not provide data about off-chain trading pairs and they are not a scalable solution that mirrors the design of the underlying protocols that they service. That said, TWAP oracles do have an unspoken benefit: they are the only source of price feeds for high-risk, low-cap tokens. Protocols that are built around isolated trading low cap tokens benefit from having access to a TWAP oracle but, as mentioned previously, the data in question is subject to natural (or malicious) market manipulation and must be used with caution. At the time of the writing, Uniswap TWAP oracle team was working on researching on other improvements such as Time Weight Median Price (TWMP), wide-range liquidity, and limit orders to be introduced to Uniswap TWAP v.3. https://preview.redd.it/nhgyy4hy5j3a1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=e2d5922fcf1e85d95996819b7d015c2914e41873 Uniswap time weighted average price (TWAP) oracle total value secured (TVS) November 2022 (Source). ORACLES OVERVIEWCurrently, there are four major market participants in the oracle space:
Chainlinkhttps://preview.redd.it/9xaerfrpxj3a1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c0ea03eba900034ee4a3e676dd8bceb39966816Chainlink total value secured (TVS) (Source). Chainlink is one of the largest oracle solutions in the market. It was established in 2017 and has been a source of truth for over 1500 dApps across 15 blockchains. At the time of this writing, the Total Value Secured by Chainlink was approximately $9.4 billion. Chainlink is an off-chain decentralized oracle network that serves over 200 pairs on Ethereum and more than 100 pairs on the BNB chain. Chainlink data expands far outside of crypto pricing offerings and includes weather data, sports data, FX and commodities. Chainlink has additional features such as data automation, VRF/RNG, Proof of Reserve, NFT price feeds, and Cross-chain interoperability protocol. Also, dApps can access any external data through AnyAPI adaptors. Pyth Networkhttps://preview.redd.it/qyxm4t5sxj3a1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=80771161353593dc35632f8e2b85ef89cdf1f376Pyth Network total value secured (TVS) (Source). Pyth Network was launched in 2021 and is the first oracle to popularize the pull mechanism for price feed updates. Currently, more than 70 projects are deployed to use Pyth Network which uses its own network to make sure the underlying blockchain does not affect the reliability of the oracle and that it is always running. Pyth Network is a decentralized off-chain aggregate price oracle that publishes data off-chain 2-3 times per second for everyone to read it. That data is published on-chain only after the request for a price contract has been made. The gas fee is paid by whoever first called the price update and it is available for the rest to use cost-free once on-chain. End-users of Pyth data can elect to pay data fees to gain protection against a potential oracle failure. Pyth Network uses a weighted average aggregate price coming from multiple sources, some of them exclusive. Pyth Data Providers are fully transparent and available to read. Binance OracleBinance Oracle was launched in October 2022 after being in design and production for more than nine months. Binance Oracle has implemented a few modifications to create more resilient and faster push oracles. At the time of this writing, Binance Oracle is deployed to the beta testnet and has onboarded its first customers.A few significant improvements to Binance’s oracle design were added to make the price feeds faster and more secure:
Band Protocolhttps://preview.redd.it/gpi2b5ztxj3a1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=9bb3604b625f92127d13503dc572badaf2743ee5Band Protocol’s total value secured (TVS) (Source). Band Protocol is a Cosmos-based oracle supporting 20 blockchains through the inter-blockchain protocol (IBC), a scalable oracle that has its own network to process all data. Band Protocol is also a decentralized off-chain aggregator oracle supporting more than 90 crypto symbols and 12 forex trading pairs. Band Protocol has built its own relayer network and is able to ensure fast cross-chain communication to publish data to the different blockchains using the IBC bridge. Other Oracle Designs: API3API3 is moving from the third-party oracle model to the first-party data providers directly on-chain. An off-chain first-party oracle connects data from any API to a smart contract through Airnode. DAO-governed, Airnode is Web3 middleware that connects any web API directly to any blockchain application. Airnodes are a piece of cloud service infrastructure that allow data providers to deploy their existing Web2 API onto the blockchain, creating what API3 calls a dAPI (Decentralized API).https://preview.redd.it/ehejymdwxj3a1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=90ffeb8667ec1fa3cc985b4b6c3e2fe20b2e8c75 Airnode Web3 middleware connects any web API directly to any blockchain application (Source). The API3 team manages the endpoints and a multi-sig mechanism is used for extra security signing transactions. API3 can also provide individual data sets for users that require full control over the curation of the data feeds they use. Other Oracles Designs: Umbrella NetworkUmbrella is a Layer2 oracle built on a sidechain. Umbrella solves the scalability problem in oracles by leveraging a Layer2 solution and utilizes Merkle trees for batching transactions to save on gas fees. https://preview.redd.it/l8yfhrl0yj3a1.png?width=1254&format=png&auto=webp&s=e637870f54ae450272bc7d24847120c2c5965139 Umbrella leverages a Layer2 solution and utilizes Merkle trees for batching transactions (Source). NEW DEVELOPMENTS AND TRENDSBlockchain oracles have been live since 2015 – the same year that Ethereum smart contracts were introduced – and have since gone through many iterations and improvements. A few new emerging trends in oracle use have been identified both during analyzing case studies and following emerging technologies.Privacy, ZK Proofs, and OraclesPrivacy enabling zero-knowledge proofs (ZKP) are hot topics that have emerged over the course of 2021-2022, solving inherent blockchain problems like lack of confidentiality and inability to control private data. Blockchain oracles are no exception to this trend. The industry is seeking a solution to reveal and verify the truth without disclosing private information.For example, Chainlink is working on a ZKP-based oracle solution called DECO, a privacy-preserving oracle protocol developed at Cornell University and later acquired by Chainlink. Oracle nodes can prove facts about data sourced from trusted servers without revealing the data on-chain, while also proving the source of the data since the TLS chain of custody is maintained. One of DECO’s applications is a verifiable credential oracle that acts as a source of truth for biometric data and allows selective data disclosure paired with digital identity. https://preview.redd.it/00b0m3y2yj3a1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=868d2c0539ebf9b5338b7b155af946d30d485d8e Oracle nodes can prove facts about data sourced from trusted servers without revealing the data on-chain. ZK Cross Chain Messaging Through Oracle RelayersFor the average Web3 user the closest understanding of oracle is the bridge between Web2 real-world data and Web3 dApps. However, oracles can not only act as price or weather data feed providers but also can be used as a source of truth for inter-blockchain messaging itself.A few prospective solutions are working on a ZK proof for cross-chain messaging where oracles act as a core part of the middleware to prove and verify that the data transmitted is true and can be trusted. An oracle node generates the ZK proof for the state of the smart contract so that data can be transferred across blockchains. Latency Is Dead, Long Live LatencyThe fastest available data on-chain is necessary and widely used in the DeFi world however, DEX interviews revealed that there is no actual demand for the real-time speed of pushing price feeds – it has to be fast, but it doesn’t have to be ultra-fast. There are two different approaches to data delivery speed with respect to pull oracles:
Modifications to TWAPSome protocols developed their own implementations of TWAP oracles with added features such as using moving averages to smooth abrupt price movements. Others have built custom pools as an oracle on the AMM/DEX. TWAP oracles might see increased demand in the future if markets move towards decentralized exchanges, which may be more likely after recent market volatility in November 2022.CONCLUSIONOracles are critical middleware infrastructure that enable myriad use cases for the blockchain. Competition amongst legacy oracle providers has pushed them to constantly innovate, add resiliency to the oracle ecosystem, and drive adoption for their services in new and better ways. Binance Oracle’s entrance into the space introduces a new player with enhanced speed and security.While capital continues to flow to DEXs, the collapse of crypto markets in November 2022 may delay the adoption of further advances in oracle development such as verified credentials and ZK cross chain messaging. Nevertheless, oracle innovation continues to unfold, bringing ever more utility to blockchain over time. REFERENCES
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![]() | Sometimes I feel that this subreddit is still stuck in 2017 talking about dead coins, whereas there’s this whole wonderful world of defi and web3 filled with life changing gains that I never see talked about here. But I want that to change so I’m putting together this huge list of all the cool things you can do in defi and web3. submitted by dragondude4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments] Trustless LoansDefi is revolutionary for this. With Maker (or many other protocols), you can deposit collateral & take a loan on your assets to use in the real world wherever. This process involves no bank, no intermediary fees and offers much higher yield than trad finance. In fact, Tesla just did a real estate backed loan with maker dao. https://preview.redd.it/pa8dz8uan5v81.png?width=1650&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e304f1bad425e5f8fc4d74ad574c99144aae374 LotteryWant to join the lottery? Well, PoolTogether isn't just any lottery. It's a DeFi protocol allowing for "no loss lotteries." How? Users are able to deposit funds, & yield is given to a verifiably random address in the pool. Losers can then still withdraw their assets. https://preview.redd.it/cxdhkz5vn5v81.jpg?width=1017&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2e5a9657ec4839cc0175e3987fb97957017656b2 Aave Flash loansIf I told you that you could get millions of dollars in assets in seconds, with no bank, with no collateral, and at no risk to the lender... I'd probably sound crazy, right? Well, flash loans on Aave are built to be repaid in the same tx, otherwise it'll revert and fail. You can do this to perform arbitrage trades and other cool things. https://preview.redd.it/vvo2akyxn5v81.jpg?width=574&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ef6e331a505d1c9a3b9814d5d979dfc51b699672 GamblingWant to place a bet? There are many options to choose from on Ethereum, the most popular being augur. This is a global, no-limit betting platform where you can bet on sports events, economics, world events, and a whole lot more on a decentralized marketplace. https://preview.redd.it/thvxkqtwn5v81.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6a96eec9d9b201dcf23373d075447582045a97ac Yield farmsNot interested? Do you prefer to just hodl your coins and not think about them? Why not earn some passive interest in the process! Head over to YFI & join the yield farms, with many different options to choose from. The YFI community works hard at developing strategies for their vaults, acting like a high interest savings account. Users can deposit & immediately start earning yield! https://preview.redd.it/yc8bosuyn5v81.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e7b30cdb16cf1d4a1e5d0649251e81f802517eb3 DEX liquidity providingSpeaking of liquidity mining... Do you have assets that you’re bullish on and that you want to put to work? Many DeFi protocols such as Uniswap, Sushiswap, & Curve are in need of liquidity. Deposit tokens of your choice to start earning yield in different tokens, & earn trade fees on swaps! Careful though as this exposes you to impermanent loss. https://preview.redd.it/p4oqabd0o5v81.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=12f2b0e93b1d6deadb1fab38d02e7ea97475ed0f Lido (staked eth)Do you hate having to worry about opportunity cost of locking up your eth? Of course, that's not a problem for DeFi. Simply access liquid staking derivatives in order to unlock liquidity and put it to use. sETH represents staked ETH on Lido. After depositing, these sETH can be used in DeFi. https://preview.redd.it/zldclbe1o5v81.png?width=820&format=png&auto=webp&s=9cacfd74f24133883b14f06d63d0de6ced475fc0 CurveThis protocol is an absolute behemoth with about $20 billion in TVL making it the largest protocol by total value locked. Visit Curve to start earning complex, double digit yields on your holdings. Curve has incentivized stablecoin pools, which people use to trade high volumes with minimal slippage, and even conduct arbitrage for yield. https://preview.redd.it/hk5c8ph2o5v81.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1e134b3eeed1b1ea55defa2a7c20cf0c9f3fb983 You can stake your CRV tokens on convex finance to earn yields from curve trading volume and bribes from protocols trying to incentivize liquidity. This is a whole rabbit hole that I will make another post about. AbracadabraHave some more appetite for risk? Go beyond just yield farming and take on leveraged yield farming! Some protocols allow users to deposit interest-bearing assets, and borrow stablecoins Tokens earning yield on CRV can be used as collateral for Abracadabra, for maximized composability. https://preview.redd.it/1ksh04x3o5v81.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7f1578b6bb30ab67d755ee876b849dd58bf6e1b1 BalancerWant to balance pools?Balancer is a liquidity provision dapp allowing users trade on various tokens. Rather than swapping tokens in several pools, Balancer only ever transfers the net amount of tokens out of a single pool, resulting in significantly cheaper trades. https://preview.redd.it/iyin68z4o5v81.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a72e544836c19642d7008975e1388eb78379e488 Synthetic stocks/forexWant to trade other real world assets on the blockchain? Synthetix offers a platform for users to swap various synthetic tokens like stocks, forex, or even precious metals! They use oracles which take data off-chain and bring them on-chain to offer tokens which are pegged to real life assets... https://preview.redd.it/7j5swst5o5v81.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b8a64e4121f821e296e41e42116afe044be90b99 Defi pulse indexDon’t want to think about it all too much and just wanna passively invest in an index? Of course it's possible. There are a handful of DeFi native indexes that offer exposure to a basket of assets in a single, convenient token. This can be an index of the top tokens in DeFi, a basket of NFTs, or anything else you could imagine. https://preview.redd.it/qa7xiu47o5v81.jpg?width=833&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=79a642ab587aaa9ca298005fb11e3788cec678fc DYDXWant to trade with leverage? DYDX offers the perfect interface for this! On it, you can trade perpetuals at any time on a variety of different contracts that are supported. It uses StarkWare's layer 2 solution for increased security, fast withdrawals, and cheap trades. https://preview.redd.it/bm39i488o5v81.jpg?width=709&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c4ad25d6459e379345196667661cad46ae636a0d AirswapWant to swap tokens p2p?AirSwap offers a unique P2P DEX: entirely open-source, supporting gas-less swaps. You can set up a trust-less trade with any counter-party, to conduct swaps that will only occur once specified conditions are met. This is perfect for OTC. https://preview.redd.it/uhxd0479o5v81.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=56f364750cbc5ca9e4a792948fd5d4f29fec43fd Fixed forexWant to trade various forex currencies? Fixed Forex provides an alternative to USD denominated stable coins. It allows liquidity providers exposure to currencies such as EUR, KRW, GBP, CHF, AUD, and JPY. On the DEX, you can make trades with no slippage & minimal fees. https://preview.redd.it/7r496x2ao5v81.jpg?width=1188&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8e84218f447f1127b53e26edea74cdada96c9e98 BarnbridgeWant to tokenize your risk? Barnbridge is a fluctuations derivatives protocol for hedging yield sensitivity and market price for assets. Using tranched volatility derivatives, Barnbridge lets you clarify the exposure to risk you want to take on a specific token. https://preview.redd.it/7vdxiavao5v81.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fdd9919fc582e7ad532d3788521d36d437c6f86e GnosisWant a multi sig? Gnosis provides a dApp for easily making multi-signature wallets that require multiple addresses to approve a transaction. This is especially useful for project treasuries, daos, and anything else you could imagine. These are customizable in many unique ways. https://preview.redd.it/sqei6pgdo5v81.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f1e94ff4c15992ba6c86186b6192da1e3f6f133 |
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