(Hey everyone, this is the SECOND half of the Finale, you can find the first half here)

The Dollar Endgame

True monetary collapses are hard to grasp for many in the West who have not experienced extreme inflation. The ever increasing money printing seems strange, alien even. Why must money supply grow exponentially? Why did the Reichsbank continue printing even as hyperinflation took hold in Germany?
What is not understood well are the hidden feedback loops that dwell under the surface of the economy.
The Dragon of Inflation, once awoken, is near impossible to tame.
It all begins with a country walking itself into a situation of severe fiscal mismanagement- this could be the Roman Empire of the early 300s, or the German Empire in 1916, or America in the 1980s- 2020s.
The State, fighting a war, promoting a welfare state, or combating an economic downturn, loads itself with debt burdens too heavy for it to bear.
This might even create temporary illusions of wealth and prosperity. The immediate results are not felt. But the trap is laid.
Over the next few years and even decades, the debt continues to grow. The government programs and spending set up during an emergency are almost impossible to shut down. Politicians are distracted with the issues of the day, and concerns about a borrowing binge take the backseat.
The debt loads begin to reach a critical mass, almost always just as a political upheaval unfolds. Murphy’s Law comes into effect.
Next comes a crisis.
This could be Visigoth tribesmen attacking the border posts in the North, making incursions into Roman lands. Or it could be the Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo, kicking off a chain of events causing the onset of World War 1.
Or it could be a global pandemic, shutting down 30% of GDP overnight.
Politicians respond as they always had- mass government mobilization, both in the real and financial sense, to address the issue. Promising that their solutions will remedy the problem, a push begins for massive government spending to “solve” economic woes.
They go to fundraise debt to finance the Treasury. But this time is different.
Very few, if any, investors bid. Now they are faced with a difficult question- how to make up for the deficit between the Treasury’s income and its massive projected expenditure. Who’s going to buy the bonds?
With few or no legitimate buyers for their debt, they turn to their only other option- the printing press. Whatever the manner, new money is created and enters the supply.
This time is different. Due to the flood of new liquidity entering the system, widespread inflation occurs. Confounded, the politicians blame everyone and everything BUT the printing as the cause.
Bonds begin to sell off, which causes interest rates to rise. With rates suppressed so low for so long, trillions of dollars of leverage has built up in the system.
No one wants to hold fixed income instruments yielding 1% when inflation is soaring above 8%. It's a guaranteed losing trade. As more and more investors run for the exits in the bond markets, liquidity dries up and volatility spikes.
The MOVE index, a measure of bond market volatility, begins climbing to levels not seen since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
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MOVE Index
Sovereign bond market liquidity begins to evaporate. Weak links in the system, overleveraged several times on government debt, such as the UK’s pension funds, begin to implode.
The banks and Treasury itself will not survive true deflation- in the US, Yellen is already getting so antsy that she just asked major banks if Treasury should buy back their bonds to “ensure liquidity”!
As yields rise, government borrowing costs spike and their ability to roll their debt becomes extremely impaired. Overleveraged speculators in housing, equity and bond markets begin to liquidate positions and a full blown deleveraging event emerges.
True deflation in a macro environment as indebted as ours would mean rates soaring well above 15-20%, and a collapse in money market funds, equities, bonds, and worst of all, a certain Treasury default as federal tax receipts decline and deficits rise.
A run on the banks would ensue. Without the Fed printing, the major banks, (which have a 0% capital reserve requirement since 3/15/20), would quickly be drained. Insolvency is not the issue here- liquidity is; and without cash reserves a freezing of the interbank credit and repo markets would quickly ensue.
For those who don’t think this is possible, Tim Geitner, NY Fed President during the 2008 Crisis, stated that in the aftermath of Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy, we were “We were a few days away from the ATMs not working” (start video at 46:07).
As inflation rips higher, the $24T Treasury market, and the $15.5T Corporate bond markets selloff hard. Soon they enter freefall as forced liquidations wipe leverage out of the system. Similar to 2008, credit markets begin to freeze up. Thousands of “zombie corporations”, firms held together only with razor thin margins and huge amounts of near zero yielding debt, begin to default. One study by a Deutsche analyst puts the figure at 25% of companies in the S&P 500.
The Central Banks respond to the crisis as they always have- coming to the rescue with the money printer, like the Bank of England did when they restarted QE, or how the Bank of Japan began “emergency bond buying operations”.
But this time is massive. They have to print more than ever before as the ENTIRE DEBT BASED FINANCIAL SYSTEM UNWINDS.
QE Infinity begins. Trillions of Treasuries, MBS, Corporate bonds, and Bond ETFs are bought up. The only manner in which to prevent the bubble from imploding is by overwhelming the system with freshly printed cash. Everything is no-limit bid.
The tsunami of new money floods into the system and a face ripping rally begins in every major asset class. This is the beginning of the melt-up phase.
The Federal Reserve, within a few months, goes from owning 30% of the Treasury market, to 70% or more. The Bank of Japan is already at 70% ownership of certain JGB issuances, and some bonds haven’t traded for a record number of days in an active market!
The Central Banks EAT the bond market. The “Lender of Last Resort” becomes “The Lender of Only Resort”.
Another step towards hyperinflation. The Dragon crawls out of his lair.
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QE Process
Now the majority or even entirety of the new bond issuances from the Treasury are bought with printed money. Money supply must increase in tandem with federal deficits, fueling further inflation as more new money floods into the system.
The Fed’s liquidity hose is now directly plugged into the veins of the real economy. The heroin of free money now flows in ever increasing amounts towards Main Street.
The same face-ripping rise seen in equities in 2020 and 2021 is now mirrored in the markets for goods and services.
Prices for Food, gas, housing, computers, cars, healthcare, travel, and more explode higher. This sets off several feedback loops- the first of which is the wage-price spiral. As the prices of everything rise, real disposable income falls.
Massive strikes and turnover ensues. Workers refuse to labor for wages that are not keeping up with their expenses. After much consternation, firms are forced to raise wages or see large scale work stoppages.
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Wage-Price Spiral
These higher wages now mean the firm has higher costs, and thus must charge higher prices for goods. This repeats ad infinitum.
The next feedback loop is monetary velocity- the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy.
The faster the dollar turns over, the more items it can bid for- and thus the more prices rise. Money velocity increasing is a key feature of a currency beginning to inflate away. In nations experiencing hyperinflation like Venezuela, where money velocity was purported to be over 7,000 annually- or more than 20 times a DAY.
As prices rise steadily, people begin to increase their inflation expectations, which leads to them going out and preemptively buying before the goods become even more expensive. This leads to hoarding and shortages as select items get bought out quickly, and whatever is left is marked up even more. ANOTHER feedback loop.
Inflation now soars to 25%. Treasury deficits increase further as the government is forced to spend more to hire and retain workers, and government subsidies are demanded by every corner of the populace as a way to alleviate the price pressures.
The government budget increases. Any hope of worker’s pensions or banks buying the new debt is dashed as the interest rates remain well below the rate of inflation, and real wages continue to fall. They thus must borrow more as the entire system unwinds.
The Hyperinflationary Feedback loop kicks in, with exponentially increasing borrowing from the Treasury matched by new money supply as the Printer whirrs away.
The Dragon begins his fiery assault.
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Hyperinflationary Feedback Loop
As the dollar devalues, other central banks continue printing furiously. This phenomenon of being trapped in a debt spiral is not unique to the United States- virtually every major economy is drowning under excessive credit loads, as the average G7 debt load is 135% of GDP.
As the central banks print at different speeds, massive dislocations begin to occur in currency markets. Nations who print faster and with greater debt monetization fall faster than others, but all fiats fall together in unison in real terms.
Global trade becomes extremely difficult. Trade invoices, which usually can take several weeks or even months to settle as the item is shipped across the world, go haywire as currencies move 20% or more against each other in short timeframes. Hedging becomes extremely difficult, as vol premiums rise and illiquidity is widespread.
Amidst the chaos, a group of nations comes together to decide to use a new monetary media- this could be the Special Drawing Right (SDR), a neutral global reserve currency created by the IMF.
It could be a new commodity based money, similar to the old US Dollar pegged to Gold.
Or it could be a peer-to-peer decentralized cryptocurrency with a hard supply limit and secure payment channels.
Whatever the case- it doesn't really matter. The dollar will begin to lose dominance as the World Reserve Currency as the new one arises.
As the old system begins to die, ironically the dollar soars higher on foreign exchange- as there is a $20T global short position on the USD, in the form of leveraged loans, sovereign debt, corporate bonds, and interbank repo agreements.
All this dollar debt creates dollar DEMAND, and if the US is not printing fast enough or importing enough to push dollars out to satisfy demand, banks and institutions will rush to the Forex market to dump their local currency in exchange for dollars.
This drives DXY up even higher, and then forces more firms to dump local currency to cover dollar debt as the debt becomes more expensive, in a vicious feedback loop. This is called the Dollar Milkshake Theory, posited by Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital.
The global Eurodollar Market IS leverage- and as all leverage works, it must be fed with new dollars or risk bankrupting those who owe the debt. The fundamental issue is that this time, it is not banks, hedge funds, or even insurance giants- this is entire countries like Argentina, Vietnam, and Indonesia.
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The Dollar Milkshake
If the Fed does not print to satisfy the demand needed for this Eurodollar market, the Dollar Milkshake will suck almost all global liquidity and capital into the United States, which is a net importer and has largely lost it’s manufacturing base- meanwhile dozens of developing countries and manufacturing firms will go bankrupt and be liquidated, causing a collapse in global supply chains not seen since the Second World War.
This would force inflation to rip above 50% as supply of goods collapses.
Worse yet, what will the Fed do? ALL their choices now make the situation worse.
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The Fed's Triple Dilemma
Many pundits will retort- “Even if we have to print the entire unfunded liability of the US, $160T, that’s 8 times current M2 Money Supply. So we’d see 700% inflation over two years and then it would be over!”
This is a grave misunderstanding of the problem; as the Fed expands money supply and finances Treasury spending, inflation rips higher, forcing the AMOUNT THE TREASURY BORROWS, AND THUS THE AMOUNT THE FED PRINTS in the next fiscal quarter to INCREASE. Thus a 100% increase in money supply can cause a 150% increase in inflation, and on again, and again, ad infinitum.
M2 Money Supply increased 41% since March 5th, 2020 and we saw an 18% realized increase in inflation (not CPI, which is manipulated) and a 58% increase in SPY (at the top). This was with the majority of printed money really going into the financial markets, and only stimulus checks and transfer payments flowing into the real economy.
Now Federal Deficits are increasing, and in the next easing cycle, the Fed will be buying the majority of Treasury bonds.
The next $10T they print, therefore, could cause additional inflation requiring another $15T of printing. This could cause another $25T in money printing; this cycle continues forever, like Weimar Germany discovered.
The $200T or so they need to print can easily multiply into the quadrillions by the time we get there.
The Inflation Dragon consumes all in his path.
Federal Net Outlays are currently around 30% of GDP. Of course, the government has tax receipts that it could use to pay for services, but as prices roar higher, the real value of government tax revenue falls. At the end of the Weimar hyperinflation, tax receipts represented less than 1% of all government spending.
This means that without Treasury spending, literally a third of all economic output would cease.
The holders of dollar debt begin dumping them en masse for assets with real world utility and value- even simple things such as food and gas.
People will be forced to ask themselves- what matters more; the amount of Apple shares they hold or their ability to buy food next month? The option will be clear- and as they sell, massive flows of money will move out of the financial economy and into the real.
This begins the final cascade of money into the marketplace which causes the prices of everything to soar higher. The demand for money grows even larger as prices spike, which causes more Treasury spending, which must be financed by new borrowing, which is printed by the Fed. The final doom loop begins, and money supply explodes exponentially.
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German Hyperinflation
Monetary velocity rips higher and eventually pushes inflation into the thousands of percent. Goods begin being re-priced by the day, and then by the hour, as the value of the currency becomes meaningless.
A new money, most likely a cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin, gains widespread adoption- becoming the preferred method and eventually the default payment mechanism. The State continues attempting to force the citizens to use their currency- but by now all trust in the money has broken down. The only thing that works is force, but even the police, military and legal system by now have completely lost confidence.
The Simulacrum breaks down as the masses begin to realize that the entire financial system, and the very currency that underpins it is a lie- an illusion, propped up via complex derivatives, unsustainable debt loads, and easy money financed by the Central Banks.
Similar to Weimar Germany, confidence in the currency finally collapses as the public awakens to a long forgotten truth-
There is no supply cap on fiat currency.
Conclusion:
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QE Infinity
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When asked in 1982 what was the one word that could be used to define the Dollar, Fed Chairman Paul Volcker responded with one word-
“Confidence.”
All fiat money systems, unmoored from the tethers of hard money, are now adrift in a sea of illusion, of make-believe. The only fundamental props to support it are the trust and network effects of the participants.
These are powerful forces, no doubt- and have made it so no fiat currency dies without severe pain inflicted on the masses, most of which are uneducated about the true nature of economics and money.
But the Ships of State have wandered into a maelstrom from which there is no return. Currently, total worldwide debt stands at a gargantuan $300 Trillion, equivalent to 356% of global GDP.
This means that even at low interest rates, interest expense will be higher than GDP- we can never grow our way out of this trap, as many economists hope.
Fiat systems demand ever increasing debt, and ever increasing money printing, until the illusion breaks and the flood of liquidity is finally released into the real economy. Financial and Real economies merge in one final crescendo that dooms the currency to die, as all fiats must.
Day by day, hour by hour, the interest accrues.
The Debt grows larger.
And the Dollar Endgame Approaches.
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As the Fed begins their journey into a deflationary blizzard, they are beginning to break markets across the globe. As the World Reserve Currency, over 60% of all international trade is done in Dollars, and USDs are the largest Foreign Exchange (Forex) holdings by far for global central banks. Now all foreign currencies are crashing against the Dollar as the vicious feedback loops of Triffin’s Dilemma come home to roost. The Dollar Milkshake has begun.
The Fed, knowingly or unknowingly, has walked into this trap- and now they find themselves caught underneath the Sword of Damocles, with no way out…
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Sword Of Damocles
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“The famed “sword of Damocles” dates back to an ancient moral parable popularized by the Roman philosopher Cicero in his 45 B.C. book “Tusculan Disputations.” Cicero’s version of the tale centers on Dionysius II, a tyrannical king who once ruled over the Sicilian city of Syracuse during the fourth and fifth centuries B.C.
Though rich and powerful, Dionysius was supremely unhappy. His iron-fisted rule had made him many enemies, and he was tormented by fears of assassination—so much so that he slept in a bedchamber surrounded by a moat and only trusted his daughters to shave his beard with a razor.
As Cicero tells it, the king’s dissatisfaction came to a head one day after a court flatterer named Damocles showered him with compliments and remarked how blissful his life must be. “Since this life delights you,” an annoyed Dionysius replied, “do you wish to taste it yourself and make a trial of my good fortune?” When Damocles agreed, Dionysius seated him on a golden couch and ordered a host of servants wait on him. He was treated to succulent cuts of meat and lavished with scented perfumes and ointments.
Damocles couldn’t believe his luck, but just as he was starting to enjoy the life of a king, he noticed that Dionysius had also hung a razor-sharp sword from the ceiling. It was positioned over Damocles’ head, suspended only by a single strand of horsehair.
From then on, the courtier’s fear for his life made it impossible for him to savor the opulence of the feast or enjoy the servants. After casting several nervous glances at the blade dangling above him, he asked to be excused, saying he no longer wished to be so fortunate.”
—---------------
Damocles’ story is a cautionary tale of being careful of what you wish for- Those who strive for power often unknowingly create the very systems that lead to their own eventual downfall. The Sword is often used as a metaphor for a looming danger; a hidden trap that can obliterate those unaware of the great risk that hegemony brings.
Heavy lies the head which wears the crown.
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There are several Swords of Damocles hanging over the world today, but the one least understood and least believed until now is Triffin’s Dilemma, which lays the bedrock for the Dollar Milkshake Theory. I’ve already written extensively about Triffin’s Dilemma around a year ago in Part 1.5 and Part 4.3 of my Dollar Endgame Series, but let’s recap again.
Here’s a great summary- read both sides of the dilemma:
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Triffin's Dilemma Summarized

(Seriously, stop here and go back and read Part 1.5 and Part 4.3 Do it!)

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Essentially, Triffin noted that there was a fundamental flaw in the system: by virtue of the fact that the United States is a World Reserve Currency holder, the global financial system has built in GLOBAL demand for Dollars. No other fiat currency has this.
How is this demand remedied? With supply of course! The United States thus is forced to run current account deficits - meaning it must send more dollars out into the world than it receives on a net basis. This has several implications, which again, I already outlined- but I will list in summary format below:

1. The United States has to be a net importer, ie it must run trade deficits, in order to supply the world with dollars. Remember, dollars and goods are opposite sides of the same equation, so a greater trade deficits means that more dollars are flowing out to the world.
2. (This will devastate US domestic manufacturing, causing political/social/economic issues at home.)
3. These dollars flow outwards into the global economy, and are picked up by institutions in a variety of ways.
4. First, foreign central banks will have to hold dollars as Foreign Exchange Reserves to defend their currency in case of attack on the Forex markets. This was demonstrated during the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98, when the Thai Baht, Malaysian Ringgit, and Philippine Peso (among other East Asian currencies) plunged against the Dollar. Their central banks attempted to defend the pegs but they failed.
5. Second, companies will need Dollars for trade- as the USD makes up over 60% of global trade volume, and has the deepest and most liquid forex market by far, even small firms that need to transact cross border trade will have to acquire USDs in order to operate. When South Africa and Chile trade, they don’t want to use Mexican Pesos or Korean Won- they want Dollars.
6. Foreign governments need dollars. There are several countries already who have adopted the Dollar as a replacement for their own currency- Ecuador and Zimbabwe being prime examples. There’s a full list here.
7. Third world governments that don’t fully adopt dollars as their own currencies will still use them to borrow. Argentina has 70% of it’s debt denominated in dollars and Indonesia has 30%, for example. Dollar-denominated debt will build up overseas.

The example I gave in Part 1.5 was that of Liberia, a small West African Nation looking to enter global trade. Needing to hold dollars as part of their exchange reserves, the Liberian Central Bank begins buying USDs on the open market. The process works in a similar fashion for large Liberian export companies.
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Dollar Recycling
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Essentially, they print their own currency to buy Dollars. Wanting to earn interest on this massive cash hoard when it isn’t being used, they buy Treasuries and other US debt securities to get a yield.
As their domestic economy grows, their need and dependence on the Dollar grows as well. Their Central Bank builds up larger and larger hoards of Treasuries and Dollars. The entire thesis is that during times of crisis, they can sell the Treasuries for USD, and use the USDs to buy back their own currency on the market- supporting its value and therefore defending the peg.
This buying pressure on USDs and Treasuries confers a massive benefit to the United States-
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The Exorbitant Privilege
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This buildup of excess dollars ends up circulating overseas in banks, trade brokers, central banks, governments and companies. These overseas dollars are called the Eurodollar system- a 2016 research paper estimated the size to be around $13.8 Trillion USD. This system is not under official Federal Reserve jurisdiction so it is difficult to get accurate numbers on its size.
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https://preview.redd.it/92wcmhdb0uq91.png?width=691&format=png&auto=webp&s=20dbaf63f75ff6f2e255fff06e6f48c03170b11b
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This means the Dollar is always artificially stronger than it should be- and during financial calamity, the dollar is a safe haven as there are guaranteed bidders.
All this dollar denominated debt paired with the global need for dollars in trade creates strong and persistent dollar demand. Demand that MUST be satisfied.
This creates systemic risk on a worldwide scale- an unforeseen Sword of Damocles that hangs above the global financial system. I’ve been trying to foreshadow this in my Dollar Endgame Series.
Triffin’s Dilemma is the basis for the Dollar Milkshake Theory posited by Brent Johnson.
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The Dollar Milkshake

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Milkshake of Liquidity
In 2021, Brent worked with RealVision to create a short summary of his thesis- the video can be found here. I should note that Brent has had this theory for years, dating back to 2018, when he first came on podcasts and interviews and laid out his theory (like this video, for example).
Here’s the summary below:
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“A giant milkshake of liquidity has been created by global central banks with the dollar as its key ingredient - but if the dollar moves higher this milkshake will be sucked into the US creating a vicious spiral that could quickly destabilize financial markets.
The US dollar is the bedrock of the world's financial system. It greases the wheels of global commerce and exchange- the availability of dollars, cost of dollars, and the level of the dollar itself each can have an outsized impact on economies and investment opportunities.
But more important than the absolute level or availability of dollars is the rate of change in the level of the dollar. If the level of the dollar moves too quickly and particularly if the level rises too fast then problems start popping up all over the place (foreign countries begin defaulting).
Today however many people are convinced that both the role of the Dollar is diminishing and the level of the dollar will only decline. People think that the US is printing so many dollars that the world will be awash with the greenback causing the value of the dollar to fall.
Now it's true that the US is printing a lot of dollars – but other countries are also printing their own currencies in similar amounts so in theory it should even out in terms of value.
But the hidden issue is the difference in demand. Remember the global financial system is built on the US dollar which means even if they don't want them everybody still needs them and if you need something you don't really have much choice. (See DXY Index):
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DXY Index
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Although many countries like China are trying to reduce their reliance on dollar transactions this will be a very slow transition. In the meantime the risks of a currency or sovereign debt crisis continue to rise.
But now countries like China and Japan need dollars to buy copper from Australia so the Chinese and the Japanese owe dollars and Australia is getting paid in dollars.
Europe and Asia currently doing very limited amount of non-dollar transactions for oil so they still need dollars to buy oil from saudi and again dollars get hoovered up on both sides
Asia and Europe need dollars to buy soybeans from Brazil. This pulls in yet more dollars - everybody needs dollars for trade invoices, central bank currency reserves and servicing massive cross-border dollar denominated debts of governments and corporations outside the USA.
And the dollar-denominated debt is key- if they don't service their debts or walk away from their dollar debts their funding costs rise putting great financial pressure on their domestic economies. Not only that, it can lead to a credit contraction and a rapid tightening of dollar supply.
The US is happy with the reliance on the greenback they own the settlement system which benefits the US banks who process all the dollars and act as gatekeepers to the Dollar system they police and control the access to the system which benefits the US military machine where defense spending is in excess of any other country so naturally the US benefits from the massive volumes of dollar usage.
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https://preview.redd.it/yq1f1anq0uq91.png?width=1140&format=png&auto=webp&s=27447e2acec884848a5c70ab3651820e487fc0f3
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Other countries have naturally been grumbling about being held hostage to the situation but the choices are limited. What it does mean is that dollars need to be constantly sucked out of the USA because other countries all over the world need them to do business and of course the more people there are who need and want those dollars the more is the pressure on the price of dollars to go up.
In fact, global demand is so high that the supply of dollars is just not enough to keep up, even with the US continually printing money. This is why we haven't seen consistently rising US inflation despite so many QE and stimulus programs since the global financial crisis in 2008.
But, the real risk comes when other economies start to slow down or when the US starts to grow relative to the other economies. If there is relatively less economic activity elsewhere in the world then there are fewer dollars in global circulation for others to use in their daily business and of course if there are fewer in circulation then the price goes up as people chase that dwindling source of dollars.
Which is terrible for countries that are slowing down because just when they are suffering economically they still need to pay for many goods in dollars and they still need to service their debts which of course are often in dollars too.
​
So the vortex begins or as we like to say the dollar milkshake- As the level of the dollar rises the rest of the world needs to print more and more of its own currency to then convert to dollars to pay for goods and to service its dollar debt this means the dollar just keeps on rising in response many countries will be forced to devalue their own currencies so of course the dollar rises again and this puts a huge strain on the global system.
(see the charts below:)
JPY/USD
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GBP/USD
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EUUSD
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To make matters worse in this environment the US looks like an attractive safe haven so the US ends up sucking in the capital from the rest of the world-the dollar rises again. Pretty soon you have a full-scale sovereign bond and currency crisis.
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https://preview.redd.it/72nlain01uq91.png?width=1141&format=png&auto=webp&s=cbaa411acc88acb3849949d84a36624d75d6cfc4
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We're now into that final napalm run that sees the dollar and dollar assets accelerate even higher and this completely undermines global markets. Central banks try to prevent disorderly moves, but the global markets are bigger and the momentum unstoppable once it takes hold.
And that is the risk that very few people see coming but that everyone should have a hedge against - when the US sucks up the dollar milkshake, bad things are going to happen.
Worst of all there's no alternatives- what are you going to use-- Chinese Yuan? Japanese Yen? the Euro??
Now, like it or not we're stuck with a dollar underpinning the global financial system.”
—-------------
Why is it playing out now, in real time?? It all leads back to a tweet I made in a thread on September 16th.
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Tweet Thread about the Yuan
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The Fed, rushing to avoid a financial crisis in March 2020, printed trillions. This spurred inflation, which they then swore to fight. Thus they began hiking interest rates on March 16th, and began Quantitative Tightening this summer.
QE had stopped- No new dollars were flowing out into a system which has a constant demand for them. Worse yet, they were hiking completely blind-
Although the Fed is very far behind the curve, (meaning they are hiking far too late to really combat inflation)- other countries are even farther behind!
Japan has rates currently at 0.00- 0.25%, and the Eurozone is at 1.25%. These central banks have barely begun hiking, and some even swear to keep them at the zero-bound. By hiking domestic interest rates above foreign ones, the Fed is incentivizing what are called carry trades.
Since there is a spread between the Yen and the Dollar in terms of interest rates, it thus is profitable for traders to borrow in Yen (shorting it essentially) and buy Dollars, which can earn 2.25% interest. The spread would be around 2%.
DXY rises, and the Yen falls, in a vicious feedback loop.
Thus capital flows out of Japan, and into the US. The US sucks up the Dollar Milkshake, draining global liquidity. As I’ve stated before, this has seriously dangerous implications for the global financial system.
For those of you who don’t believe this could be foreseen, check out the ending paragraphs of Dollar Endgame Part 4.3 - “Economic Warfare and the End of Bretton Woods” published February 16, 2022:
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Triffin's Dilemma is the Final Nail
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What I’ve been attempting to do in my work is restate Triffins’ Dilemma, and by extension the Dollar Milkshake, in other terms- to come at the issue from different angles.
Currently the Fed is not printing money. Which is thus causing havoc in global trade (seen in the currency markets) because not enough dollars are flowing out to satisfy demand.
The Fed must therefore restart QE unless it wants to spur a collapse on a global scale. Remember, all these foreign countries NEED to buy, borrow and trade in a currency that THEY CANNOT PRINT!
We do not have enough time here to go in depth on the Yen, Yuan, Pound or the Euro- all these currencies have different macro factors and trade factors which affect their currencies to a large degree. But the largest factor by FAR is Triffin’s Dilemma + the Dollar Milkshake, and their desperate need for dollars. That is why basically every fiat currency is collapsing versus the Dollar.
The Fed, knowingly or not, is basically in charge of the global financial system. They may shout, “We raise rates in the US to fight inflation, global consequences be damned!!” - But that’s a hell of a lot more difficult to follow when large G7 countries are in the early stages of a full blown currency crisis.
The most serious implication is that the Fed is responsible for supplying dollars to everyone. When they raise rates, they trigger a margin call on the entire world. They need to bail them out by supplying them with fresh dollars to stabilize their currencies.
In other words, the Fed has to run the loosest and most accommodative monetary policy worldwide- they must keep rates as low as possible, and print as much as possible, in order to keep the global financial system running. If they don’t do that, sovereigns begin to blow up, like Japan did last week and like England did on Wednesday.
And if the world’s financial system implodes, they must bail out not only the United States, but virtually every global central bank. This is the Sword of Damocles. The money needed for this would be well in the dozens of trillions.
The Dollar Endgame Approaches…
—-------------------------------------------------------------
​

Q&A

(Many of you have been messaging me with questions, rebuttals or comments. I’ll do my best to answer some of the more poignant ones here.)

—-----
Q: I’ve been reading your work, you keep saying the dollar is going to fall in value, and be inflated away. Now you’re switching sides and joining the dollar bull faction. Seems like you don’t know what you’re talking about!
A: You’re mixing up my statements. When I discuss the dollar losing value, I am referring to it falling in ABSOLUTE value, against goods and services produced in the real economy. This is what is called inflation. I made this call in 2021, and so far, it has proven right as inflation has accelerated.
The dollar gaining strength ONLY applies to foreign currency exchange markets (Forex)- remember, DXY, JPYUSD, and other currency pairs are RELATIVE indicators of value. Therefore, both JPY and USD can be falling in real terms (inflation) but if one is falling faster, then that one will lose value relative to the other. Also, Forex markets are correlated with, but not an exact match, for inflation.
I attempted to foreshadow the entire dollar bull thesis in the conclusion of Part 1 of the Dollar Endgame, posted well over a year ago-
​
Unraveling of the Currency Markets
​
I did not give an estimate on when this would happen, or how long DXY would be whipsawed upwards, because I truly do not know.
I do know that eventually the Fed will likely open up swap lines, flooding the Eurodollar market with fresh greenbacks and easing the dollar short squeeze. Then selling pressure will resume on the dollar. They would only likely do this when things get truly calamitous- and we are on our way towards getting there.
The US bond market is currently in dire straits, which matches the prediction of spiking interest rates. The 2yr Treasury is at 4.1%, it was at 3.9% just a few days ago. Only a matter of time until the selloff gets worse.
—------
Q: Foreign Central banks can find a way out. They can just use their reserves to buy back their own currency.
Sure, they can try that. It’ll work for a while- but what happens once they run out of reserves, which basically always happens? I can’t think of a time in financial history that a country has been able to defend a currency peg against a sustained attack.
​
Global Forex Reserves
​
They’ll run out of bullets, like they always do, and basically the only option left will be to hike interest rates, to attract capital to flow back into their country. But how will they do that with global debt to GDP at 356%? If all these countries do that, they will cause a global depression on a scale never seen before.
Britain, for example, has a bit over $100B of reserves. That provides maybe a few months of cover in the Forex markets until they’re done.
Furthermore, you are ignoring another vicious feedback loop. When the foreign banks sell US Treasuries, this drives up yields in the US, which makes even more capital flow to the US! This weakens their currency even further.
​
FX Feedback Loop
​
To add insult to injury, this increases US Treasury borrowing costs, which means even if the Fed completely ignores the global economy imploding, the US will pay much more in interest. We will reach insolvency even faster than anyone believes.
The 2yr Treasury bond is above 4%- with $31T of debt, that means when we refinance we will pay $1.24 Trillion in interest alone. Who's going to buy that debt? The only entity with a balance sheet large enough to absorb that is the Fed. Restarting QE in 3...2…1…
—----
Q: I live in England. With the Pound collapsing, what can I do? What will happen from here? How will the governments respond?
England, and Europe in general, is in serious trouble. You guys are currently facing a severe energy crisis stemming from Russia cutting off Nord Stream 1 in early September and now with Nord Stream 2 offline due to a mysterious leak, energy supplies will be even more tight.
Not to mention, you have a pretty high debt to GDP at 95%. Britain is a net importer, and is still running government deficits of £15.8 billion (recorded in Q1 2022). Basically, you guys are the United States without your own large scale energy and defense sector, and without Empire status and a World Reserve Currency that you once had.
The Pound will almost certainly continue falling against the Dollar. The Bank of England panicked on Wednesday in reaction to a $100M margin call on British pension funds, and now has begun buying long dated (10yr) gilts, or government bonds.
They’re doing this as inflation is spiking there even worse than the US, and the nation faces a currency crisis as the Pound is nearing parity with the Dollar.
​
BOE announces bond-buying scheme (9/28/22)
​
I will not sugarcoat it, things will get rough. You need to hold cash, make sure your job, business, or investments are secure (ie you have cashflow) and hunker down. Eliminate any unnecessary purchases. If you can, buy USDs as they will likely continue to rise and will hold value better than your own currency.
If Parliament goes through with more tax cuts, that will only make the fiscal situation worse and result in more borrowing, and thus more money printing in the end.
—----
Q: What does this mean for Gamestop? For the domestic US economy?
Gamestop will continue to operate as I am sure they have been- investing in growth and expanding their Web3 platform.
Fiat is fundamentally broken. This much is clear- we need a new financial system not based on flawed 16th fractional banking principles or “trust me bro” financial intermediaries.
My hope is that they are at the forefront of a new financial system which does not require centralized authorities or custodians- one where you truly own your assets, and debasement is impossible.
I haven’t really written about GME extensively because it’s been covered so well by others, and I don’t feel I have that much to add.
As for the US economy, we are still in a deep recession, no matter what the politicians say- and it will get worse. But our economic troubles, at least in the short term (6 months) will not be as severe as the rest of the world due to the aforementioned Dollar Milkshake.
The debt crisis is still looming, midterms are approaching, and the government continues to deficit spend as if there’s no tomorrow.
As the global monetary system unravels, yields will spike, the deleveraging will get worse, and our dollar will get stronger. The fundamental factors continue to deteriorate.
I’ve covered the US enough so I'll leave it there.
—------
Q: Did you know about the Dollar Milkshake Theory before recently? What did you think of it?
Of course I knew about it, I’ve been following Brent Johnson since he appeared on RealVision and Macrovoices. He laid out the entire theory in 2018 in a long form interview here. I listened to it maybe a couple times, and at the time I thought he was right- I just didn’t know how right he was.
Brent and I have followed each other and been chatting a little on Twitter- his handle is SantiagoAuFund, I highly recommend you give him a follow.
​
Twitter Chat
​
I’ve never met him in person, but from what I can see, his predictions are more accurate than almost anyone else in finance. Again, all credit to him- he truly understands the global monetary system on a fundamental level.
I believed him when he said the dollar would rally- but the speed and strength of the rally has surprised me. I’ve heard him predict DXY could go to 150, mirroring the massive DXY squeeze post the 1970s stagflation. He could very easily be right- and the absolute chaos this would mean for global trade and finance are unfathomable.
​
History of DXY
​
—----------
Q: The Pound and Euro are falling just because of the energy crisis there. That's it!
Why is the Yen falling then? How about the Yuan? Those countries are not currently undergoing an energy crisis. Let’s review the year to date performance of most fiat currencies vs the dollar:
Japanese Yen: -20.31%
Chinese Yuan: -10.79%
South African Rand: -10.95%
English Pound: -18.18%
Euro: -14.01%
Swiss Franc: -6.89%
South Korean Won: -16.73%
Indian Rupee: -8.60%
Turkish Lira: -27.95%
There are only a handful of currencies positive against the dollar, the most notable being the Russian Ruble and the Brazilian Real- two countries which have massive commodity resources and are strong exporters. In an inflationary environment, hard assets do best, so this is no surprise.
—------
Q: What can the average person do to prepare? What are you doing?
Obligatory this is NOT financial advice
This is an extremely difficult question, as there are so many factors. You need to ask yourself, what is your financial situation like? How much disposable income do you have? What things could you cut back on? I can’t give you specific ideas without knowing your situation.
Personally, I am building up savings and cutting down on expenses. I’m getting ready for a severe recession/depression in the US and trying to find ways to increase my income, maybe a side hustle or switching jobs.
I am holding my GME and not selling- I still have some shares in Fidelity that I need to DRS (I know, sorry, I was procrastinating).
For the next few months, I believe there will be accelerating deflation as interest rates spike and the debt cycle begins to unwind. But like I’ve stated before, this will lead us towards a second Great Depression very rapidly, and to avoid the deflationary blizzard the Fed will restart QE on a scale never seen before.
QE Infinity. This will be the impetus for even worse inflation- 25%+ by this time next year.
It’s hard to prepare for this, and easy to feel hopeless. It’s important to know that we have been through monetary crises before, and society did not devolve into a zombie apocalypse. You are not alone, and we will get through this together.
It’s also important to note that we are holding the most lopsided investment opportunity of a generation. Any money you put in there can be grown by orders of magnitude.
We are at the end of the Central Bankers game- and although it will be painful, we will rid the world of them, I believe, and build a new financial system based on blockchains which will disintermediate the institutions. They have everything to lose.
—------
Q: I want to learn more, where can I do? What can I do to keep up to date with everything?
You can start by reading books, listening to podcasts, and checking the news to stay abreast of developments. I have a book list linked at the end of the Dollar Endgame posts.
I’ll be covering the central bank clown show on Twitter, you can follow me there if you like. I’ll also include links to some of my favorite macro people below:

• Peruvian Bull (my only account)
• Lyn Alden
• Luke Gromen
• Brent Johnson
• Raoul Pal
• Andreas Steno Larsen
• Jeffrey Snider

I’m still finishing up the finale for Dollar Endgame- I should have it out soon. I’m also writing an addendum to the series which is purely Q&A to answer questions and concerns. Sorry for the wait.
—-------------------
Nothing on this Post constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any security, portfolio of securities, investment product, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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tl;dr Short-Term Doom, Long-Term Prosperity
I will start with energy, because that is where the economy starts. Everything is energy. All production, all consumption. Debt is just a claim on future energy/resources, and is typically purchased on the expectation of repayment of principal/interest (money is just tokenized energy), based upon an expectation of real economic growth of the debt issuer (assuming interest rates are positive). When you live in a world where everyone has more energy to use and consume on an annualized basis, economies see real growth. The opposite also usually holds true, absent financialization tricks to mask the decline. So, where are we today? Conveniently BP has excellent data on this stuff going back to 1965, and keeps it here:
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
You can download a spreadsheet there called “Statistical Review of World Energy – all data, 1965-2021.” It has a handy tab called “Primary Energy – Cons capita,” which tells you what the annual per capita consumption of energy is in gigajoules, broken out into various geographic groupings. Here is what that looks like for roughly the first decade of data:
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https://preview.redd.it/x1ktkb4w0jm91.png?width=1227&format=png&auto=webp&s=61b950b10e1cbcea873d19c403181ae0fa061f53
Notice how energy consumption per capita is trending upwards from 1965 to 1973? Those were pretty good times. America had cheap and abundant domestically produced conventional onshore crude oil, and a massive manufacturing base that thrived off of it in the glory days after WWII when we dominated pretty much every market that existed. Unfortunately, in 1973 this thing called an energy crisis happened, as our conventional production was going into decline, and Europe, Japan, and other economic competitors were back on their feet after WWII and seeking to increase their share of the economic pie (using energy).
Note the consistent declines in global energy consumption per capita and OECD consumption per capita during 1974 and 1975. So, what did the S&P 500 do in 1973 when this energy crisis suddenly arrived on the market?
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https://preview.redd.it/pfhx27e01jm91.png?width=930&format=png&auto=webp&s=1408e4cdce1f14c650e20cf0929fa13d90efb585
From January ’73 to October ’74, the S&P 500 lost about half of its value. Business plans, debt, and earnings all ran into the hard wall of an energy crunch and reset market expectations as inflation driven by energy shortages reared its ugly head. The E on the P/E side of the equation changed suddenly, and anything based on TTM or pre-crunch estimates was total garbage.
Around this same timeframe, some relevant events also happened. In 1971, Nixon took us off the gold standard and ended the monetary system (Bretton Woods) that had existed since WWII ended. Prior to that dollars could be exchanged for gold at a set rate, but some stagflation in 1971 made the whole system unstable and unworkable for America, so it had to go. By the time the energy crunch hit in 1973, the US knew it needed to do something to stabilize its supply of energy, its global reserve currency, and its access to real assets to fund future growth. So in July 1974, Nixon sends his new Treasury Secretary, former Salomon Brothers bond trader Bill Simon, to Saudi Arabia on a top secret mission. Bloomberg learned about it from a FOIA request decades later, and wrote a cool article about it:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-05-30/the-untold-story-behind-saudi-arabia-s-41-year-u-s-debt-secret
Here’s the tl;dr on the article, from the article itself:
“The basic framework was strikingly simple. The U.S. would buy oil from Saudi Arabia and provide the kingdom military aid and equipment. In return, the Saudis would plow billions of their petrodollar revenue back into Treasuries and finance America’s spending”
That word petrodollar is also important. In early 1945 FDR entered into an alliance with Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia agreed to sell and price oil in dollars. Most other oil producing nations of the world quickly joined the club, and we liked this. If countries outside of the Soviet system needed energy to grow their economies, they needed reserves of dollars, and debt denominated in dollars. We will return to this topic later.
So, we had obtained a fat stack of funding from the Saudis to dig our way out of this energy crisis thing. The process was pretty rocky, resulting in the 1970s, but eventually this nice man named Paul Volcker ratcheted interest rates high enough so that the stagflation could be beaten into submission, while around the same time enough capital had reached E&P companies to enable capex to flood the market with new cheap energy, turning boomtowns of the 1970s like Houston into ghost towns in the 1980s. Newly developed offshore fields in the Gulf of Mexico and North Sea pumped energy like it was going out of style, and the market had a really good time for about 20 years.
Since all of that energy came online in the early 1980s, global consumption per capita has generally trended upwards every year until 2018. We kept finding new ways to economically pull oil and gas out of the ground (new fields, deepwater, fracking shale), and get it into the hands of consumers so they could use more of it to grow the economy. This lifted billions of people out of poverty, allowed the agricultural revolution to feed them with nitrogen fertilizers made from natural gas feedstock, and provided predictably priced (mostly) inputs for heavy industry. This was an all around great thing for business, and American Boomers as a group made a metric fuckton of money riding the wave during the entirety of their working lives.
So, what does the most recent decade of BP per capita energy consumption data look like?
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https://preview.redd.it/ee84vir41jm91.png?width=1539&format=png&auto=webp&s=a8acb71d9654f5848e6a26295e66affddd8696ec
Pretty much a plateau globally from 2011-16, small increase in 2016, top in 2018, and downwards trend since (with 2020 being a big down anomaly for obvious reasons). There’s variation around that whether you look at OECD, EU, Non-OECD, but the peak for all of them is 2018. People have less energy to work with today than they did four years ago.
Unless more energy gets injected into the system, it is very hard to stimulate real growth, and financial instruments (like bonds) that track anticipated real growth reflect that with high prices and low (or even negative) interest rates. In a world where everything is growing, I want my loans to at least reflect the real rate of economic growth, otherwise I am losing money. Looked at bond yields over the past decade lately? They didn’t seem to be pricing in a lot of real growth at any duration. Why do you think that is?
People can argue about the definition of peak oil all they want, but 2018 appears to be at least a localized peak when scaled to global population. The key to reversing this is producing enough energy at a reasonable price, so that people can start using more of it. That would reflect an economy that is growing in real terms. That takes lots of money. Which brings us to the next chapter of this story, a very brief overview of geopolitical stuff that happened from the fall of the Soviet Union to the recent start of World War III.
The year is 1991, the Soviet Union falls and this country called Russia suddenly has a lot of available energy reserves that previously weren’t getting a lot of circulation outside of the walled-off Soviet Sphere. These abundant energy reserves were recognized immediately for what they could be: a giant engine of additional economic growth to fuel the 1990s and beyond. That’s what happened. A country in Europe called Germany had this bright idea to build out a massive heavy industrial and manufacturing base, fueled by cheap Russian natural gas, which could easily be pipelined in from the fields in western Russia and eastern Ukraine. The plan worked, and Germany became an economic powerhouse with a massive trade surplus. Germany did not control the energy it used, though, so its position was precarious. To make matters worse from an economic perspective, over time Germany decided it did not like cheap energy due to environmental concerns, and had this very intense political aversion to nuclear power (another cheap, energy-dense method of generating baseload electricity). So, Germany decided to get rid of its nuclear reactor fleet, reduce its number of coal powerplants, and replace them with natural gas power turbines for baseload electricity generation, supplemented by semi-reliable solar and wind power, which is not suitable for baseload generation.
Eventually this brutal mafia boss named Putin takes over the country, and becomes President for Life of Russia’s energy reserves. He does not care for America, has actively sought to collapse us for decades, did not like the fact that he was forced to sell oil in dollars, and would do anything he thought he could get away with to make Russia strong vs. its competitors, especially America.
Fast forward to his invasion of Ukraine earlier this year. The U.S./Eurozone/Allied response was to hit Putin and Russia with sanctions. Much like prioexisting sanctions on Iraqi or Iranian oil, these sanctions did nothing to actually keep his oil and gas off the market. Putin did not like the sanctions or Allied support for Ukrainians, so he decided to weaponize his most strategic resource: natural gas flows to Europe. Eventually we got to here, where Germany’s 30-year economic miracle died almost overnight:
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https://preview.redd.it/kx4ympc81jm91.jpg?width=2048&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9fc1c5da1f48225830d4b015bad4be77f41d1915
That is decades of GDP that just got wiped out, on top of all sorts of weird multi-sigma anomalies like $1.5 Trillion margin calls in European electricity futures markets. None of the stonks you own have priced in this reality. Not even remotely. Bonds have seen a ton of volatility (check the MOVE index), and it is really hard to find buyers for treasuries with this much uncertainty around future real economic growth prospects, while this thing called the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, and starting to sell lots of bonds into this market.
There are billions upon billions of dollars of formerly productive assets sitting in Europe now, completely cut off from reasonably priced energy supplies that allow those assets to be economically competitive. Capitalism really does not like these sorts of inefficiencies, and is designed to fix them, so that costs of production can be as low as possible and competitive. It takes staggering amounts of resources and capital to just move production like that from where it is no longer competitive, to areas where it can be (like on the opposite side of the Atlantic, close to America’s and Canada’s abundant energy resources). Russia probably wouldn’t mind buying that stuff at firesale prices and building out a manufacturing economy of its own next to its own energy resources, but America really would not like that, and the existence of sanctions makes that maneuver pretty difficult. As far as America is concerned, we paid for all of that stuff through an investment called the Marshall Plan about 70 years ago, specifically so that Russia could not have it.
And now we come to the Federal Reserve and the Petrodollar. The federal reserve has only two priorities: (1) full employment; and (2) price stability. Employment is currently close to all-time highs. Price stability is at a place not seen since the 1970s. As we have reached the edge of our petri dish during a supercycle of energy and economic growth, the fuel is dwindling, from both natural (depleting reserves) and unnatural (war) causes. The show simply cannot go on at these levels. We are constantly bumping up against the limits of energy, and it is creating chaos in the availability of reasonably priced energy, which affects commodities and food, which causes inflation, and which restricts real growth. The energy crunch is here.
You can’t just print more dollars and create more energy instantaneously. Europe is about to try by printing Euros to provide subsidies for energy that it doesn’t produce, which isn’t priced in Euros, alongside price caps over the world’s most essential commodity, which it doesn’t control. The UK is getting in on this act, too. This will cause two things: (1) hyperinflation; and (2) energy shortages and rationing.
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https://preview.redd.it/e72wzpkc1jm91.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fc5252a13cee26d535ac3bb6a134969d2d0c27c6
Meanwhile, that Putin guy is now demanding payment in Rubles for his oil and gas. He wants valuable real assets (foreign currency, hard assets, technology transfers, whatever) for his stuff, just like America gets from the Petrodollar. He is also refusing to sell it to anyone who tries to cap the price of his stuff. This, more than the Ukraine invasion itself, has caused World War III. It is a direct attack on the supremacy of the Petrodollar, which America cannot abide. The Petrodollar is central to our national security strategy. Recently Saudi Arabia has entered the chat, and agreed to sell its oil to Europe and Asia at reduced rates (not fully priced in dollars). It is not clear to me at this point if this is a temporary relief valve to our allies to relieve forex pressures, or if the Saudis have allied with Putin. The fog of war is real, and events are unfolding in real time, but markets hate uncertainty.
Turning back quickly to the hyperinflation issue, what will be the effect of the European countries printing not-dollars to subsidize energy they don’t produce or control in sufficient quantities to meet their needs? The hyperinflation will definitely affect citizens and some businesses quite harshly (Goldman Sachs says 20%+ in the UK, and a government spokesperson affirmed that this was a reasonable estimate). It will also have the effect of concentrating national wealth in a handful of energy production and distribution related industries that are vital to the national security of those countries. Enter the Federal Reserve and America’s greatest weapon (we actually use it, unlike our nuclear stockpile): interest rates and the Petrodollar.
Used properly interest rates and the petrodollar become a many birds with one stone solution to a lot of nagging problems. One, with recent large pro-Putin protests in the Czech Republic, Germany, and other Eurozone countries facing staggering and bankrupting energy bills, there is a risk that these countries could leave Team America, and try to cut a deal with Putin. It would take a while to get past the sanctions, but where there’s political will there’s a way. This outcome is unacceptable to America and can never be permitted.
As the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and sells its massive bond stockpile to combat inflation arising out of the energy crunch, much like it did in the 1970s, all sorts of second and third-order effects start happening, like sovereign debt crises. Countries keep reserves of dollars to buy energy, and as a result of regularly needing to transact in dollars, issue dollar-denominated debt. As interest rates in the US rise and bonds are sold, the global supply of dollars decreases. It is harder to get dollars, and foreign currencies dependent upon a stable or growing supply of dollars depreciate. They need to use more of their own currency to get the same amount of dollars that they used to. Much like the energy situation, a supply/demand imbalance arises. Also, quite a lot of the record high levels of corporate debt around the world are priced in dollars. That debt was also issued predicated upon growth assumptions that probably did not include an energy crisis, World War III, and stagflation. As you might imagine, this can cause a lot of problems.
Why then, do you ask, would America keep raising rates and selling bonds when markets are screaming “hey guys, big energy crisis over here, maybe turn on the liquidity a bit more”? Well, the amount of liquidity it would take to patch the gaping hole in German GDP is beyond anything we can reasonably do. That would lead to hyperinflation in America, which can never be allowed. The only thing that truly threatens the accumulated wealth of a nation (which the Federal Reserve protects in America) is hyperinflation. It killed the Weimar Republic, and it will kill what we currently recognize as the European economy. The wealthy and wealth of this country can survive market crashes, but not hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is an economic weapon of mass destruction, and you just can’t predict the outcome with any reasonable certainty (other than real bad).
Also, we are kinda tapped on liquidity after the Covid money fountain, and finding ourselves at the end of a business/debt cycle while we bump up against the chaotic limits of available energy. So, what happens when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and sells bonds to continue tightening liquidity into this mess? Something in the global economy pops, starting in Europe (remember that $1.5 Trillion margin call in electricity futures). Hyperinflation destroys their economies, and they need a bailout/reset. In return for the bailout, we can give them the dollars they desperately want (we can create them at will). In return we only ask for all of their critical, national-security adjacent energy assets, which American capital can then operate for them starting from Europe’s new, lower baseline of reset economic growth. Some of the plant and equipment (natural gas turbines, very nice), along with intellectual property, can also be used to develop a more robust manufacturing economy here in America, close to comparatively cheap and abundant supplies of energy. We have done this with our allies before. In March of 1941, before America entered WWII, we sent the UK about 40 mothballed, decrepit destroyers from storage, and all we asked for in return was postwar dissolution of the British Empire and control over the global monetary system. It was a really amazing deal for America. We have profited immensely.
The other part of the puzzle is the staggering amounts of capital that will be needed to properly invest in energy and manufacturing infrastructure in America over the next decade. We basically have to onshore Germany, and replicate their trade balance that just vanished, plus some if we want actual growth. That is just a crazy amount of money, but we have to do it. The problem is that a huge chunk of our economy’s money is tied up in the stonks you retards have been buying hand over fist at a time when bond yields were screaming “NO REAL GROWTH.” Reversing this trend means inversing you. Your stonks gotta be crushed so that we can reset our growth baseline back to something reasonable, providing a multi-year runway of growth that will not bump up against energy limitations and make everything chaotic again. Once that happens, the Fed can turn the money spigot back on and the high interest rates will ensure that capital is allocated efficiently to the sectors where it will be most productive, like energy and manufacturing.
In the short to medium term this is going to be a rather volatile and unpleasant process, if you are not aware of what needs to happen. The old world of globalization is over. The heavy industry and production will be relocated here on our fortress continent, where we can keep our investment safe from bad actors like Russia in an increasingly dangerous world. The pivot is not coming until the reset happens. If you love America, sell your stonks and wait for the crash (or gamble on the timing of it like a degenerate with puts or UVXY, which I am doing), then go long as balls American treasuries, energy, manufacturing, and short dollars so the rest of the world can buy all the stuff we are about to make so we can all prosper. The Fed is on our side. You can make money in any market as long as you are flexible.
In the meantime I will conclude with a few fun bearporn centerfolds that I collected from around the internet:
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https://preview.redd.it/yxdxyo6u2jm91.jpg?width=1074&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1ebc896da3842649374b72ce046d87a7cb94f701

US markets continued to fall on Tuesday as a string of strong economic data dented bullish optimism that the Fed could be switching back to a hawkish stance before next week’s FOMC (current expectation is a 50bp hike).
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US30 H4
The Dow (US30) had fallen by a total of 1,000 points over the last 2 sessions and is now closer to the 33,015-support level than its resistance at 34,250.
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NAS100 Daily
The NAS100, however, has once again landed on the 11,500~11,535 support level ---- a key level that was proven to be effective since early September, and has been used to formulate many of our past strategies for swing trading. Traders may watch out for potential reversals.
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EURUSD M30
On the FX side, EURUSD has been losing steam after hitting 1.05970 last week. Considering the fact that bull traders are on cautious footing ahead of FOMC, opportunistic traders may find recent EUR price levels attractive should the Fed deliver a 50bp hike and further weakens the USD.
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Disclaimer:
The information contained in this market commentary is of general nature only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You are strongly recommended to seek independent financial advice before making any investment decisions.
Trading margin forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors could experience losses in excess of total deposits. You do not have ownership of the underlying assets. AC Capital Market (V) Ltd is the product issuer and distributor. Please read and consider our Product Disclosure Statement and Terms and Conditions, and fully understand the risks involved before deciding to acquire any of the financial products provided by us.
The content of this market commentary is owned by AC Capital Market (V) Ltd. Any illegal reproduction of this content will result in immediate legal action.

#Forex #Gold #Indices: This is how we end the day.
Knowledge is power. Join the winning team and bring your account for management.
Whatsapp +919981547789
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https://preview.redd.it/aq6x9e36xry91.png?width=1068&format=png&auto=webp&s=3811cbd3149d8d29c1534c3a99620c8e2892b7b1
https://preview.redd.it/iec0f436xry91.png?width=1067&format=png&auto=webp&s=c381b71a39b57771118d32c4fad2f1c58490dd08
#eurusd #gbpusd #audusd #xauusd #usdjpy #usdcad #gbpjpy #gbpaud #wtiusd #us30 #nasdaq #dowjones #forextrader #forextrading #fifaworldcup #fifa #Austria #Belgium #kuwait #Saudi #Qatar #USA #France #Germany #Brazil #Malaysia #Singapore #Canada #cyprus #Indonesia #Thailand #Italy #Croatia #Spain #Netherlands #Dubai #Slovenia #Ireland #crypto #bitcoin #unitedarabemirates #unitedkingdom

Global investors will need to buckle up for a heavyweight week as the US, UK and EU central banks are scheduled to release their last interest decisions for 2022. Massive volatility and volumes are expected to generate ample trading opportunities for various markets.
In the UK, GDP data is due at 18:00 on Monday, with a forecast of 1.4%, the figure is expected to come in slightly higher than last (1.3%), hence the recessionary fears may not necessarily be exacerbated just yet. Employment data is also expected to show a fall in jobs lost (-52k prev. vs. -17k exp).
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https://preview.redd.it/1n6yrgpkue5a1.png?width=603&format=png&auto=webp&s=029a6eeb02d388e603edd03b9ad74c728209fc10
On Wednesday morning (AEDT), BLS will release its last round of inflation data for November, setting a key cornerstone for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee’s interest rate decision (Thursday morning at 06:00). With inflation (CPI) expected to cool further from 7.7% (Oct) to 7.3% (exp.), traders are likely to be actively adjusting their positions should the actual print miss expectation.
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NAS100 H1
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SPX500 H1
SPX500 H1
Now most of the market participants (79%) are pricing in for 50bp hike, only 21% are expecting the Fed to stay on course to deliver the 5th 75bp hike. Price actions suggest recent support levels are fairly priced to justify such mentality, with the NAS100’s 11,500, SPX500’s 3,930 and the US30’s 33,490.
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GBPUSD H4
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Later on Thursday, BoE is expected to hike 50bp to lift its official rate to 3.50%. GBPUSD is moving cautiously as the Fed’s action is 11 hours ahead of the BoE’s, thus possibly creating reversal trends at these 2 key time frames.
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EURUSD H4
Heading into Friday, the European Central Bank will also hand down the last interest rate decision in 2022, albeit the fragility of its economy (similar to the UK), the ECB is poised to chase up with its global counterparts by lifting 50bp as well.
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this market commentary is of general nature only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You are strongly recommended to seek independent financial advice before making any investment decisions.
Trading margin forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors could experience losses in excess of total deposits. You do not have ownership of the underlying assets. AC Capital Market (V) Ltd is the product issuer and distributor. Please read and consider our Product Disclosure Statement and Terms and Conditions, and fully understand the risks involved before deciding to acquire any of the financial products provided by us.
The content of this market commentary is owned by AC Capital Market (V) Ltd. Any illegal reproduction of this content will result in immediate legal action.

US majors staged a long-waited comeback after suffering from multi-day losing streaks, at the time of writing, the SPX500 is trading at 3,955 after reaching a daily high of 3,974 and the NAS100 reclaimed its multi-month support level at 11,500.
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SPX500 H1
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NAS100 H1
The USD index declined further to 104.750, making way for EURUSD and GBPUSD to edge higher while USDJPY remains solidly below 140.
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EURUSD H4
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GBPUSD H4
The Aussie markets are expected to follow bullish lead from Wall Street and open higher near 7,200, paving way for the last interest rate decision from the world’s most powerful central bank (FOMC).
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AUS200 H1
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this market commentary is of general nature only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You are strongly recommended to seek independent financial advice before making any investment decisions.
Trading margin forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors could experience losses in excess of total deposits. You do not have ownership of the underlying assets. AC Capital Market (V) Ltd is the product issuer and distributor. Please read and consider our Product Disclosure Statement and Terms and Conditions, and fully understand the risks involved before deciding to acquire any of the financial products provided by us.
The content of this market commentary is owned by AC Capital Market (V) Ltd. Any illegal reproduction of this content will result in immediate legal action.

US benchmark indices continued to fall on Wednesday after the 2- and 10-Year Treasury Yield Curves became most inverted in nearly 40 years, indicating an imminent recession is threatening the economy and stirring up market sentiment before the much-expected Fed pivot next week.
SPX500 Daily
SPX500 held onto the 3,930-support level firmly overnight despite the lower wick on the daily candle dipping through (early hours) but was quickly pulled back up mid-session.
NAS100 H1
NAS100 took more damage as its 11,500-support level was unexpectedly breached, extending into a 6-day losing streak and reaching a daily low of 11,408, before trimming losses and finishing the session at 11,485, approaching the 11,500 key support zone again.
EURUSD H1
On the FX side, USD was little changed while EURUSD rallied strongly to reach 1.05420 after dipping to 1.04400 level, in line with our forecast.
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this market commentary is of general nature only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You are strongly recommended to seek independent financial advice before making any investment decisions.
Trading margin forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors could experience losses in excess of total deposits. You do not have ownership of the underlying assets. AC Capital Market (V) Ltd is the product issuer and distributor. Please read and consider our Product Disclosure Statement and Terms and Conditions, and fully understand the risks involved before deciding to acquire any of the financial products provided by us.
The content of this market commentary is owned by AC Capital Market (V) Ltd. Any illegal reproduction of this content will result in immediate legal action.