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![Hướng dẫn chơi Binomo Forex trên điện thoại [Mới nhất 2019] - Binomo Việt Nam](https://external-preview.redd.it/RJJAzArUgnAVkFFcMkiY3pWLDjTtv4kdXMCVD-0ZNKU.jpg?width=320&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=8569fa53fc7a51b5c76ffde391779703a594d272 "Hướng dẫn chơi Binomo Forex trên điện thoại [Mới nhất 2019] - Binomo Việt Nam") | submitted by binomovietnam to u/binomovietnam [link] [comments] |
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Stocks rallied on Friday, but finished the week lower, as investors drew conflicting conclusions about what the latest payroll numbers mean for future Federal Reserve rate hikes.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 401.97 points, or 1.26%, to close at 32,403.22. The S&P 500 advanced 1.36% to settle at 3,770.55, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.28% to finish at 10,475.25.
All the major averages capped off the week with losses. The Dow shed 1.4%, ending four weeks of gains. The S&P and Nasdaq fell 3.35% and 5.65%, respectively, to break two-week winning streaks.
October’s nonfarm payrolls report on Friday left investors divided, fueling some concern that the Fed will persist with its hiking campaign since the labor market added 261,000 jobs. Others interpreted the findings as a sign that the labor market is beginning to cool — albeit at a slow pace — since the unemployment rate rose to 3.7%.
“You see kind of a tale of two cities today,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. “I don’t think the market quite knows how to gauge this employment number versus what the Fed signaled on Wednesday.”
Investors in recent days have struggled to decipher comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding whether a tightening pivot may come as the central bank fights to tame rising inflation and a strong economy. Focus also shifted toward next week’s consumer price index report. A drop in inflation could signal rate hikes are doing their job and fuel a potential shift.
In other news, hopes of a reopening in China pushed shares of U.S.-listed China stocks higher Friday, although the government hasn’t formally announced a pivot. Pinduoduo, JD.com and Alibaba shares surged.
Corporate earnings season also continued, with mobile payment company Block surging 11% after beating expectations. Carvana shared dropped 38% as it posted a wider-than-expected loss, while Twilio and Atlassian both plummeted on disappointing guidance.
Along with Thursday’s CPI report, investors are looking ahead to next week’s midterm elections.
Election Day and Day After Historically Bullish
Prior to 1969 the market was closed on Election Day. In the midterm elections since 1970, Election Day has been bullish with S&P 500, DJIA and NASDAQ (since 1974) all posting average gains. The day after Election Day, when results are in, is also bullish, but with even larger gains and a higher frequency of advancing days. Unlike the candidates on the ballots, the market generally only cares that the election is over as it has historically moved higher afterwards.
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On the Other Hand
Harry Truman is famous (among other things) for saying, “Give me a one-handed Economist. All my economists say 'on hand...', then 'but on the other...” And it's true. You rarely will see an economic analysis that doesn't couch one view with an alternative scenario, and you can't fault them for hedging their bets. Predicting the future is impossible, especially when it involves the direction of the world's largest economy.
This morning's employment report also has a number of hands. At the surface, the report was better than expected coming in ahead of expectations (261K vs 193K). As shown in the chart below, this was the seventh straight better-than-expected print and the ninth in the last ten months.
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To illustrate just how impressive this recent run has been, the chart below shows streaks of better-than-expected prints in non-farm payrolls (NFP). The current streak of seven is easily the longest such streak since at least 2000.
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While job growth in the US economy has consistently surpassed expectations this year, it is important to point out that the pace of job growth isn't accelerating. This month's print of 261K was actually the smallest monthly increase since late 2020 and is well off the peak readings seen in 2021 when the FOMC was maintaining its zero interest rate policy. To put this trend in perspective, in 2021 the average monthly change in NFP was 562K. In 2022, that average has declined to 407K, and in just the last three months, the average has been 289K. On the one hand, the job market remains strong. On the other hand, momentum has clearly peaked and there has been a trend of deceleration.
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The Silver Lining of Another Fed Rate Hike
The Federal Reserve (Fed) just raised rates by 0.75%, taking the federal funds rate to a target 3.75-4.0% range. This is the 4th consecutive 0.75% interest rate increase and comes as the Fed tries to get on top of inflation. The bond market has been anticipating this aggressive pace of tightening, and treasury yields have moved in sync. Short-term yields are a gauge of what investors believe is the path of monetary policy over the near future.
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The bad news is that markets don’t think rate increases are done, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell more or less suggested this in his remarks. Investors now expect the target policy rate to peak at 5% six months from now.
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So, what’s the positive news?
Well, interest rates are higher, and that means you can get a greater yield on bonds. And since the yield curve is inverted, with short-term yields higher than long-term yields, short-term bonds are potentially a very attractive option. They have less “duration” risk, in that they’re less sensitive to interest rate changes, especially if interest rates continue to move higher.
Extremely short-term bonds are more attractive now than they have been in more than a decade and a half. The 3-month treasury yield is currently at 4.2% and the 6-month treasury yield is at 4.6%, the highest yields in more than fifteen years. These “ultra-short” bonds could potentially be used as a potential cash-like solution, especially if that cash is not needed in the immediate future.
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But Which Cash Solution?
I mentioned above that yields have moved up as the Fed raised interest rates. But yields haven’t moved up in tandem across all the different types of savings and short-term investment vehicles out there.
Savings accounts at some of the major banks are still paying interest rates well below the treasury yields I quoted above. And as the next chart illustrates, money market funds are also paying much lower yields, currently averaging about 2.9%. On top of that, they’ve started increasing fees. As Jason Zweig at the Wall Street Journal recently wrote, not a single U.S. money market fund was charging more than 0.18% in annual expenses at the end of 2021 – as of September 30th, the average expense is 0.39%.
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CDs offer better yields and are gaining in popularity once again. However, the best rates (4% or more) tend to be offered by banks to their wealthiest customers, so-called brokered CDs which are purchased through brokerage firms.
The downside of CDs is that they are illiquid, locking up money for a longer period. Moreover, if yields continue to increase, you could be stuck with a CD that pays out a lower rate of interest. Also, CDs are subject to state and local income taxes, unlike treasuries (and funds that hold treasuries), and you also must pay taxes on accrued interest for each year, unless it’s in a tax-deferred retirement account.
This brings us to ultra-short-term bond ETFs. Now, you must be careful when picking one of these – being aware of the “duration” risk as well as the quality of bonds in the fund, i.e., “credit risk”.
I combed through the universe of ultra-short bond ETFs and selected 8 that hold treasuries. The table below shows the expense ratios, yields, and effective duration for these ETFs. (Please note that this is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell any of these securities, and you must do your own research before doing so, given your unique circumstances.)
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If you notice, there are 3 different kinds of yields listed above. The first two are the 12-month yield and SEC yield, which are typically what’s shown if you pull up a site like Morningstar. These are both backward-looking yields. The 12-month yield is the sum of the ETF’s trailing 12-month interest payments divided by the last month’s ending share price (net asset value) – which is not helpful because interest rates were much lower over the past 12 months. The SEC yield is slightly better since it’s a little more recent – it divides the income received during the 30-day period that ended on the last day of the prior month by the share price on the last day of the period. The problem is the income received can vary from month to month, and it’s still backward-looking.
The yield you want to focus on is the “yield-to-maturity”, which can be found on the issuer websites, and is best reflective of the future expected return. The average effective duration can also be found on the issuer’s website, and as you can see, these ETFs all have extremely low duration. This means they have very little interest rate risk, even as they offer very attractive yields. And since these ETFs hold treasuries, there is no credit risk (unless the US government defaults). There are plenty of ultra-short ETFs that I didn’t list here which have much more attractive yields, but they do tend to stretch more out onto the credit risk spectrum.
A couple of interesting ETFs at the bottom of the table (tickers: TFLO and USFR) have practically zero duration risk. These hold “floating rate” treasury bonds that seek to take advantage of rising interest rates – they mature in two years, but the interest rate resets every week when the US Treasury auctions the 13-week treasury bill.
We believe all these ETFs are fairly attractive options that can be used as potential cash solutions. Ideally, you can tier your cash to maximize the yield – with money market funds used for immediate liquidity needs (say, a week or two) and ultra-short treasury bond ETFs like the ones listed above for longer-term needs.
The silver lining of an aggressive Fed is that now you can put your cash to work.
Typical November Trading Usually Bullish
After a big October for the record books the first two days of November have taken it on the chin as the market hoped for more dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Initial bullish reaction to new dovish remarks in the written statement were countered by tough talk from Powell in the presser. Looked like war of the algos today. Let’s wait for the dust to settle over the next few days to see if November begins to live up to it’s bullish reputation.
Being a bullish month November has seven bullish days based upon S&P 500, with four occurring on the first four trading days of the month. Although historically a bullish month, November does have weak points. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 exhibit the greatest strength at the beginning and end of November. Russell 2000 is notably bearish on the 12th trading day of the month; the small-cap benchmark has risen just ten times in the last 38 years (since 1984).
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Best and Worst Performing Stocks Since Rate Hikes Began
The S&P 500 is down a little more than 12% since the close on March 16th after Fed Chair Powell hiked rates off the zero bound for the first time of this cycle. We've seen 300 basis points of hikes so far, and today we're set for another hike of 75 bps.
Looking at the S&P 1500, which includes large-caps, mid-caps, and small-caps, the average stock in the index is down 7.1% since the close on March 16th after the first rate hike. As shown below, Real Estate stocks (REITs) have been hit the hardest by the rate hikes with the average stock in the sector down 20.6%. Communication Services stocks are down the second most with an average decline of 18.4%. Consumer Discretionary stocks have averaged a decline of 13.1% since 3/16, while Technology stocks are down 10.6%. On the upside, we've seen two sectors average gains since the Powell rate hike cycle began: Energy and Consumer Staples. Consumer Staples stocks are up an average of 5.6%, while Energy stocks have averaged a huge gain of 24.8%.
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Below is a list of the stocks in the S&P 1500 with market caps above $2 billion that have done the best since rate hikes began back in March. PBF Energy (PBF) is up the most with a gain of 135.99%, while CONSOL Energy (CEIX) ranks second with a gain of 114.49%. Other notable stocks on the list of big winners include First Solar (FSLR), Constellation Energy (CEG), Shockwave Medical (SWAV), Enphase Energy (ENPH), Lamb Weston (LW), H&R Block (HRB), TreeHouse Foods (THS), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Albemarle (ALB).
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On the flip side, below is a list of the stocks with market caps still above $2 billion that have fallen the most since the rate hike cycle began. Leading the list is portable generator maker Generac (GNRC) with a decline of 62.45%, followed by two more stocks down more than 60%: Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) and Neogen (NEOG). Other notables on the list of rate-hike losers include Under Armour (UAA), Align Tech (ALGN), Meta Platforms (META), Carnival (CCL), Kohl's (KSS), Expedia (EXPE), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), VF Corp (VFC), AMD, Paramount (PARA), and Yeti (YETI).
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Stocks usually bottom before EPS, jobs, and GDP start to improve. Time after time we've seen it (but note it didn't work during the Tech bubble). The bottom line, stocks sniff out better times and rally in the face of bad news.
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Record Decline in Mortgage Apps
As mortgage rates continue to press higher with Bankrate.com's 30 year national average for a fixed rate loan hovering well above 7%, high frequency housing data continues to show no signs of relief. The latest mortgage purchase reading from the Mortgage Bankers Association released this morning showed the lowest level of applications since the start of 2015. As we mentioned in today's Morning Lineup, that would imply further significant declines in new and existing home sales data to come.
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Refinance applications are even worse. Given homeowners would be refinancing at some of the highest rates of the past few decades, refinance applications were up modestly week over week, although that is far from enough to lift it off of the lowest levels since August 2000.
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On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, purchases tend to peak in the late spring followed by a gradual decline through the end of the year. While mortgage activity has fallen off of a cliff this year, the drop has followed the usual seasonal pattern. What is amazing about this year is just how large of a drop that has been. Whereas 2022 started with purchase apps coming in at some of the strongest levels of the past decade for the comparable weeks of the year, the opposite is true today.
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Although purchases have followed their seasonal pattern, the chart above does not do justice in showing how large of a decline it has been off of the annual peak. It has been nearly half a year (25 weeks) since applications hit their seasonal high, and in that time, purchases have been essentially cut in half. Relative to the 25 weeks after each other annual high since 1990, 2010 was the only other year in which there was a similar decline. However, that year comes with a caveat that the expiration of special homebuyer tax credits lent to a particularly strong home-buying season. Similarly, a change in mortgage disclosure rules in the fall of 2015 resulted in a seasonal peak occurring unusually late in the fall of that year, so 25 weeks later extended out to the following year. Given that, purchases were actually higher in the 25 weeks later; the only year in which that is the case. In other words, caveats aside, no other year in the history of this data has seen as sharp of a decline in homebuying/mortgage origination activity as this year.
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Large Cap Growth Underperforms Everything
The past year has been a rough road for equities, but growth in particular has certainly seen its fair share of underperformance. The past month especially has been a notable microcosm of that underperformance. As we approach the one-year mark of the last all-time high in growth-oriented indices like the Nasdaq (discussed in today's Chart of the Day) or S&P 500 Growth index, large-cap growth's relative strength has broken down versus equities broadly, as well as growth and value across various market cap ranges.
As shown below, S&P 500 Growth relative to the S&P 500 steadily moved higher (upwards trending lines indicate S&P 500 growth outperformance) throughout the post-Global Financial Crisis era and absolutely took off in the early stages of the pandemic. After peaking in November of last year, the relative performance of growth has been on the downswing and erasing most of its earlier pandemic outperformance. In fact, following the historic weakness of mega caps on earnings (which we discussed in last week's Bespoke report) that has continued into this week, and the relative strength is now at the lowest level since the end of February 2020.
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Large-cap growth has not only underperformed other large caps, but it has also dramatically underperformed its mid and small-cap peers. From the post-Dot Com Bubble years through the Global Financial Crisis period, large-cap growth serially underperformed growth stocks of both the mid and small-cap varieties. The past decade, however, erased much of that underperformance. In fact, the 20-year relative strength line of S&P 500 growth versus S&P 400 growth actually turned positive briefly earlier this year in February. In other words, after almost two decades the performance of large-cap (S&P 500) and mid-cap (S&P 400) growth was finally near equal. Since then, the relative strength line has pivoted sharply lower and is now testing the uptrend line that has been in place since 2016.
Relative to small-cap growth, large-cap growth was much weaker in the first half of the 2010s and didn't really begin to turn higher until the past five years. With that said, it also peaked far earlier (September 2020) than the relative strength versus mid-cap growth and is not quite testing its multiyear uptrend line yet.
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Where the more dramatic underperformance of large-cap growth has been is relative to value stocks. As shown in the first chart below, relative to large-cap value, large-cap growth generally remains in its longer-term uptrend although most post-pandemic outperformance has been erased. Moving down the market cap chain increasingly worsens that picture through. The relative strength line of S&P 500 growth versus S&P 400 value recently hit a new low for the post-pandemic period, nearing the flatline in the process. In other words, large-cap growth has almost erased all of its outperformance versus mid-cap value, not only since the start of the pandemic but over the past 20 years. As for small caps, that outperformance is now gone entirely gone as the relative strength line now registers negative readings. Both versus mid and small-cap value, large-cap growth has definitively broken its multi-year uptrends that had been in place since late 2016.
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Record Inflow into High Yield (JNK)
High yield bonds proxied by the third largest ETF tracking the space, the SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK), went on a solid 3% run last week. That ranks as the fifth best performing fixed income ETF in our Trend Analyzer. That resulted in the ETF to close above its 50-DMA for the first time since late August. Today, the ETF has reversed those gains and is hovering slightly back below that moving average.
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Although from a technical standpoint that could mean Friday's breakout was a pump fake, the move was backed by near record volumes hence a record single day inflow. As shown below, roughly $980 million went into JNK on Friday, surpassing the previous record of $774 million set this past January. While total assets have been on the downswing for the past couple of years leaving plenty of room to go until the ETF is back up to its size from its peak in the summer of 2020, that single day inflow did put an impressive dent in those recent outflows.
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- (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
Monday 11.7.22 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
Monday 11.7.22 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)
Tuesday 11.8.22 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)
Tuesday 11.8.22 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #4!)
Wednesday 11.9.22 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)
Wednesday 11.9.22 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #4!)
Thursday 11.10.22 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)
Thursday 11.10.22 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)
Friday 11.11.22 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 11.11.22 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
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 | The End game has begun. Stagflationary 1972-73 Price pump or Deflationary 2008 bust.? I am prepared for both ;) submitted by DesmondMilesDant to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] Disclaimer : Apologies beforehand for a lot of verbose because of the final newsletter. For quick read up i suggest reading "Tl;dr section" ( headings ) and for the reasons behind it are included in the detailed "Experiment section". Intro: “I felt a great disturbance in the force as if millions of voices slowly and wildly got together and then there was an uprising against the government and the financial institutions”Sorry guys, I was supposed to send this the day before yesterday ( great movie ) but unfortunately I got caught up in a celebration we are having over here. So it's the start of the weekend. Y’all know what that means. I'm not talking about having a party lol, that is for me. You guys have to decipher this long post so that you can protect yourself from the upcoming danger that I am seeing. In short you’re fucked if you don’t read this especially institutions and hedge funds. Just for this week please avoid strip clubs. This one's for you guys because you read my post. ( I like to think so ) Retail public especially retards i don’t have words for you guys. You guys can chill this weekend because all you do is sh9t on my post. Might as well sh9t on this too. I don’t care since all you’re obsessed with is Ryan Cohen and $BBBY. So when you’re finally over him after getting drunk this weekend then you can go ahead and read this post. Could be worth your time. As for people asking me why I don't give my opinions regarding meme stocks. Well folks the reason is simple. We are still in a bear market according to my calculations. So it's written somewhere in the gospel of investing that bear markets are the opportunities to analyze value companies, not meme companies which are about to be purge in the upcoming mega crash as an offering to please the gods of stock market. Yes you “You-tube” folks the crash hasn’t even started yet. We still have -53% to go from here till March 2023 as my base case. Don't even ask me about my worst case. For that just open the Dow Jones 1929-1932 chart. Tl;dr and Td;du folks : ( Too long didn't read, Too dumb didn’t understand ) We have already discussed this : Buy 4 months/2 months/1 months puts i.e Dec 30/Oct 29/Sept 29 at the money with strike price near about "200 day moving average = 200dMA" in $SPY last week of august if it comes. It already did one time on August 16 and i think the top is already in. So you’re gonna profit regardless. Invalidation would be three white soldier candles above 200dMA of course in daily chart. For positions go scroll down. ( I will make you work for it at-least. xD ) We have a long way to go friends. Now for those folks who want a detailed explanation about everything let’s dive in. Respected Traders and Investors, How are you guys doing? It’s been a long time hasn’t it. God I was gone for a while and had Ni-san use my Reddit account for a few days. First of all, I'm gonna apologize for the Shzio post by my brother Itachi. Man, it felt like it messed up my brains for a while there. It was so damn trippy. So I highly highly advise you guys not to go and read it a second time. Please, it's for your own health. Regardless i love my brother analysis coz he thinks like no other normal people do in the world of trading/investing. So, I take full responsibility for my actions and if things don't go as planned out in the above charts ( i.e the mega crash doesn’t happen you know ) then you’re not gonna hear from us. P.s. We promised you that we will do these posts only in bear markets. Even if the USA goes into depression for 10 to 15 years we will post in a week or two until we visit ath ( all time high ) once again. One may ask why not do this stuff in the bull market? Guys you have to understand we are not bull market specialists. For bull markets it's generally advised to follow moon boys on twitter, tik-tok, You-tube etc. They are more educated and well informed than us in that department with a huge audience behind them. ( They spend so much on marketing lol ) Recap : Predictions 2022 so far. I don’t usually like to do this because my readers already know about this but it’s time to back-test how accurate we ( i.e. me and my brother ) have been this whole time especially to show random people who are new to reading these kinds of posts especially when it’s season finale.
https://preview.redd.it/6n7xv1xs52j91.png?width=1851&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef518b9218d0bc29d830fc61927009ece8a66438
https://preview.redd.it/ictvxtex52j91.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=1905d15b9028016b853e12dd817097c285d2eac7
https://preview.redd.it/brojy4p462j91.png?width=743&format=png&auto=webp&s=a96db2532fe7643a3b03e3f2293102e8c28a06e2
https://preview.redd.it/da60ccei62j91.png?width=818&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce9e342a4a1f31b7ed9cd4931c8511bdd9368ae5 And then there were bond, commodity, Dxy calls that we are not even mentioning. What this all means is that the stock markets have been performing as we had hoped for since February which is like 6-7 months ago. So i guess we are not a broken clock and actually do provide the exact days or should i say the time horizon. Am I a member of secret society i.e. "Illuminati” or have contacts in "Pay pal mafia" ? No guys. I am not a member of secret society nor do i have any contacts. My brother do though. I do want to manage the portfolio of wealthy clients like my brother someday but I'm too lazy. I just want to take bets and watch anime and Tv shows my entire life. I just finished West world and now i guess i will watch episode 1 of “House of dragons”. ( Why did that producer said bad things about Emilia. Hmm ) As for anime recommendation man its getting hard to find good ones. I'm just waiting for Chainsaw man now. About my self. Before all of this I was a Computer Science student whose only good skill was learning a hybrid application development platform called Flutter ( By Google ) but now I just write detailed and boring posts on Wall Street bets about anything that comes to my mind for you guys. My predictions come right because of you folks so thank you for taking trades and also I just basically copy pasted 2008 charts ( 32nd death week ) like I do with Git-hub while programming. Now will I be wrong in the future? Of course I will be. I’m no economist. I just make cases i.e stock market = 1972-73 or 2008 and just bet on them. Also a big hedge fund guy might find my post someday and take the opposite trade against me wrecking people who followed my advice. Hence i always tell you guys “Do your own research“ “This is not financial advice” even though it will be right most of the time. You absolutely should not follow anybody w/o checking out at-least 10 other guys. Why take my advice ? So now that we have cleared some of the confusion which I couldn't in my Wsb guest talk appearance you might be thinking why we should even consider your advice in the top 10 folks we watch. You’re a nobody. Well folks in my defense i would say it's because I gradually improved myself. Earlier my posts were shitty but now they are getting better especially my T.A. And I'm also learning economics day by day. Do you know guys I didn't wanted to write this as final post coz I was actually busy working on other post like “Deciphering Stagflation 70's” and “Thermodynamics in Economics” as my farewell post. Yes it's true guys the US economy is one giant open system. That’s how Elon Musk and Jerome Powell do calculations about economics. xD Well enough spoilers about the next season. I know you guys are getting bored. So lets now finally jump in what i wanted to actually talk about. Experiment : Tools :” I mean the Technicals i will be using today includes : -> Candle sticks -> Elliot wave with Fibonacci -> Stochastic Rsi -> My favorite which never ever lies : Pvt(O) -> At last my “Ketlner channels” Procedure : Step 1 : Forex Markets Eur-usd Eur-usd : Have you ever seen such a bearish chart in your life both on a weekly and monthly basis? I mean as much as I love European countries but I have to say your Eur-usd charts sucks equally much. Putin owns you guys this winter. Italy and Germany are already suffering so much with 10x bills gas + electricity if compared with 2021 so i can't even imagine about countries like Spain, Greece etc. Okay so I'm gonna stop myself now with the pessimism and dive into Technicals. Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )
Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )
Result : I can confidently say with 1000% certainty that Eur-usd is going down. Thank you madam Lagarde. You’re doing such a fine job by selling German Bund and buying Italian bonds. Congratulations to you and your PEP tool (Lol, guys this woman is bat-sh9t crazy) Gbp-usd Gbp-usd : Well first Sir Mr Bailey. I have to say I'm a big fan of your honesty if you are reading this. I mean in today's world it's hard to find someone that honest in a government job. So guys we know inflation is double digit’s over here ( heading to 13% or was it 15% in coming months ) and in September the Bank of England is going with 50 bps. So we already know that Uk is gonna have more than 2Q of -ve Gdp. I hope you Uk folks survive considering you're gonna lose jobs, probably go into economic depression because recession is everybody’s base case even of Mr Bailey. So enough details let’s do analysis. Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )
Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )
Result : I can confidently say Gbp-usd is going down. Mr Soros if you’re listening to this, let's break the “Bank of England” once again. Just for good old times sake. Usd-Jpy Usd-jpy : If i tell you anything about this forex pair I’m probably Bs’ing you. It’s true guys. Even Mr Kuruda the governor of Boj doesn’t know where the Usd-jpy is gonna go. But what we can speculate is if the dollar becomes so much stronger due to the weakness in the Eur-usd equation then Dxy is gonna pump past 110 and the dollar becomes stronger. Got it. So I could easily play this approach into my thesis by telling you yes this pair is just gonna go up. But I will not do that. Instead I'm gonna play a devil’s advocate here saying Usd-jpy will go down. So let’s analyze things which are a total waste of your and my time because I'm gonna reverse this forex you will see how. Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )
Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )
So since I took the bear case it doesn't look like any bearish to me. Don't you agree? So our devil in devil’s advocate looks weak. So to fit our thesis lets reverse this. This is kinda like physics or Math kind of stuff where we proof things by assuming inverse. Result : I cannot confidently say but I will say Jpy-usd is going up to 148 at my favorite dot com times where Dxy went 120. Hence i’m selling my Yen trust with ticker $FXY. Step 2 : DXY. A basket of forex currencies. You must be wondering, I'm gonna introduce another colorful RGB crayon drawing chart on both weekly and monthly. Sorry to disappoint you folks but I'm not doing that. Instead let’s use our brains. We know that US dollar Index i.e. Dxy is used to measure the value of the dollar a/g basket of 6 currencies. The Euro, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, British pound and Swedish krona. Now I'm not gonna explain you here why dollar is global reserve currency or dollar has more liquidity so let’s just assume that. So what happens now is when Eur-usd becomes weaker, investors usually go risk off and buy the safest asset in the world i.e Dollar. Hence the Dxy goes stronger which suggests the dollar is getting stronger coz european buddies will exchange for dollars coz its very liquid and due to interest rate differentials. ( Remember Gbp-usd is an exception to interest rate differential coz what's happening over there is interest rates will go up but their currency is still losing its strength ) We have discussed a thesis in past letters already and came to a conclusion and I quote. “Eur-usd is a mirror image of the Dxy chart.” Remember this for your lifetime. Especially you Gen-z. I wasn’t gonna post a chart but then I realized I should for new folks who are lazy to read past posts. Eur-usd breaks parity and goes 0.80 levels Dxy will be 120 for sure. In monthly Dxy is super bullish. And on a weekly basis it's trying to close above 107 i believe. Hence your Voldemort asset class dropped -8% i guess. Right ? Mirror chart : DXY vs Eur-usd Result : I can confidently say Dollar or DXY is getting stronger in comparison to Euro, Gbp and Jpy. Hence DXY to 120 is back on the table according to the “20yrs of wyckoff accumulation” pattern. If you cleanly break 110-112 i must say equities especially the Spx is gonna visit to my $3200 level. Now some Cnbc or Bloomberg guys who stole my research and didn’t gave me credit 2-3 months ago used to come on tv and say things like “Oh in 2018 Spx visited 200wMA so it makes sense that this cycle which is even more tightening compared to last makes sense to visit this range.” So folks now the Spx has shifted its 200wMA/50mMA = $3500-$3600. But these clowns oops economists don't know that we should take a look at the monthly chart. Once you open that. Your pants are about to drop coz in the last tightening we visited not 200wMA but 100 monthly moving average i.e 100mMA. Yeah let’s go visit makachev vs oliviera in oct 23rd ufc 280. So if we cross paths over there I will tell you we are going to Spx $2873 i.e. somewhere around $2800-2900 which my close friend Dr Burry suggested too. Hence he sold + he is shorting coz he has relieved every moment in 2008. So he knows what’s coming next. You guys don’t. Step 3 :Eur-usd Implied Fed funds 100-CME:GEZ2023 ( Not gonna use Elliot wave + Fib trend starting here now ) This is like gonna be super high level stuff even far above my pay grade. Only Zoltan can explain this using repo markets but since he is busy I will try to explain it in a funny way. So if you might have watched Cnbc this past week two economists were arguing about how Fed funds have priced in 4% already but one might be saying no it has only priced in 3.4-3.5%. So who is right? If you watch “Everything money” by my suggestion then Mo came to the conclusion that the reason he is saying 4% is because the Fed is doing QT + rate hikes which Mo still does not believe. So who is right and what is the right explanation for 4% ? Imo they both are right but the explanation is wrong. The reason one should present about the 4% Fed funds argument is that in Eur-usd implied Fed funds went to 4%. Hence the market has priced 4% in the euro dollar banking system. But if you take only the dollar banking system in Usa then we look at yields of 2 yr and 10 yr which are hinting that Fed funds 3.4-3.5% is already priced in by the markets. Eur-usd implied Fed funds. Monthly and weekly time frame analysis :
Result : I can confidently say that we are going up here technically. So J. Powell, could you please back me up on this. Zoltan agrees with me. Snyder doesn’t. ( Just remember implied fed funds can go up due to Eur-usd weakness. So its kinda like indirect interest rate hike for markets. Add QT on top of that. Hence Fed is dovish in Fomc minutes for rate hikes ) Step 4 : HYG & LQD : The corporate bonds HYG Hyg : This product is designed to replicate a benchmark which provides a broad representation of the U.S. dollar-denominated high yield liquid corporate bond market. The high yield bond space has been cracked wide open by ETFs, as these products have offered numerous ways for investors to take advantage of this space. High yields can be a great addition to a yield-starved portfolio, as they can offer yields into the double digits for those willing to take on the risks that come along with it. The high returns come from riskier bond choices who have to pay out higher ratios to compensate investors for high risks. This means that the holdings of these ETFs will have higher chances of defaults, and could potentially leave investors out to dry. But those who have done their homework on the holdings of a particular “junk” bond fund have the ability to generate strong returns from these powerful products. HYG keeps most of its assets inside of the U.S., though it does offer a slice of international exposure as well. The ETF is dominated by corporate bonds, the majority of which have investment grades between B and BB. This product will make a great income addition to any investor who is fully aware of the risks a high yield bond product carries. Weekly time frame analysis :
Monthly time frame analysis :
LQD : I leave it up to you guys. Cmon at least do one. Result : I cannot confidently say that we are going down on a monthly time frame ( i need to see more data ) but yah sure on weekly we are going down because of that deadly candle that folks have been talking about. Step 5 : IEI/HYG : Government bond price / Corporate bond price. IEI/HYG : Double check below thing. IEI/HYG : If it goes up then credit spreads are widening. ( Bad thing i.e risk off ) IEI/HYG : If it goes down then credit spreads are tightening. ( Good thing i.e. risk on ) Weekly time frame analysis :
Monthly time frame analysis :
Result : I cannot confidently say that we are going up on a monthly time frame ( i need to see more data ) but yah sure on weekly we are going up. Step 6 : ( Super scary ) : Velocity of m2 or m1 money supply i.e v = us gdp / m1 or m2. Velocity of M2 This is a very debatable topic. Only the pros have the right to argue about this stuff and no one else. Peter lynch once told me during my time travel visit that people worry that the velocity of money supply is going up way too fast then we are gonna have depression and if the velocity of money supply goes down then too we are gonna have depression. So which one is it? Anyways Q3 2020 : 1.149 was the highest reading. Currently we are trying to break it. Q2 2022 : 1.147 "The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy. This is called an expanding economy." ~ By Fred website. So go out there and ask your banking friends and tell them please explain the concept of money supply in today's terms. Not an old term. So I too went to my brother for advice. He told me “ F off “ Result : “F off” Step 7 : Gold We are not gonna do weekly and monthly time frame analysis on this. Some of you guys may be like “Dude, I'm an old man with agricultural land. I wanna own gold like my ancestors from 18th century coz i believe in stagflation, parabolic move, end of the world, negative debasement hedge blah blah” So i need charts. Old man's Gold : Old man you need to chill. We are gonna use our brain like Peter Schiff. So we know, gold doesn't love that his nemesis dollar is going up. Now if you can tell me how high Dxy will go up then i can tell you that the top of Dxy will be the bottom of Gold. Also gold doesn’t love financial crisis or bank runs. In my world gold is a phoenix who rises from ashes. Meaning if we plunge into the abyss then gold is gonna drag us out of there first. Then indices move and other asset classes. Digital Gold : As for young folks, you love the King of Voldemort asset class don’t you? So go buy it at amazon bottom i.e. $4-5k or my favorite Richard heart level -83% i.e 10,690. Or if you really don't have the patience like probably 99% of the entire world population you buy some % of this commodity for whatever reasons these guys are selling you at $20k. I shall rest my case now. Result : Dollar i.e. Dxy up = Gold down and vice versa. Step 8 : TLT/JNK : It’s kinda like IEI/HYG Can you guys do this please? Hint : Bullish divergence on weekly and monthly. Meaning TLT ( 20yr treasury bond etf by black rock ) buying over Junk bonds i.e. JNK Step 9 : US Oil. Let's go Brandon and the government. Just how much are you gonna manipulate the best inflation hedge alive. You guys have already killed my Gold. Yes you J.P. Morgan traders, I hate you. May your bank dies in upcoming crash and have Panic of 2023 just like Knickbocker crisis in 1907. Only then I shall have my vengeance a/g those rumors you circulated back in the days. So guys you probably would know this that our Usa Government try to manipulate oil market just to please people and ask for votes. These are some of their stupid tactics.
This is the most manipulated market I have ever seen in my 100 yr+ of lifetime. So traders if your conclusion from my above observation was that we should short Oil lemme tell you something in double quotes. “Be afraid of Putin’s Winter Oil boogeyman”. "Contango is a dangerous thing that futures creates" You don’t short Oil in winter. Period. Heck you shouldn’t even trade Oil. Only the expert can do this because it's called “Widow Maker” i.e. the losses in this commodity trading could be catastrophic planetary devastation like. Tip : Btw currently oil is in downwards wedge and it could break to upside and we go up in winter but Oil too like gold doesn't love Dxy going up. So kinda mixed signals i guess. Let's see who shall prevail bulls or bears of oil. Result : Dollar i.e. Dxy up = Oil down and vice versa but Winter is coming/ Contango = Maybe Oil up. Step 10 : Powell curve i.e.10 yr - 3 month, 2 yr - 3 month ( Pvt(o) and Elliot wave doesn't work here ) Do you guys remember the talk we had with Powell earlier this year when he was trying to explain us that the inversion of the 10 yr - 2 yr curve doesn't mean anything and unless the near term curve inverts it's all okay. Well folks Powell near time curves are close to getting inverted. Therefore you’re seeing these Fed officials talk dovish recently. Coz if they invert Fed will lose their remaining 0.0000001% credibility. So let’s analyze them on a weekly time frame because on a monthly time frame they look super super bearish to me and there is no chance that the curve won’t invert at some point later on. J Powell/ Fed Curves : Us10y-Us03m , Us02y-Us03m Weekly time frame analysis :
Larry Summers former Fed chairman came recently to Bloomberg saying that the Fed has shown in latest minutes that they don’t even know what they are doing. Hence they Bs’ing us in their statement. I mean guys just read these hawkish and dovish points yourself. Also do check out the hidden statements in minutes which are pieces of advice for billionaires about liquidity and t-bills. Don’t forget my warning about bank runs. They are coming. My bet is Well’s Fargo Oct 2022/23 = Lehman brothers Oct 2008 or you could also go with lowest read by a bank in Fed stress test. Hawkish vs Dovish vs Billionaire's ( Highlighted in blue ) Fed minutes. As for individual bonds and overall yield curve : Bonds :
Yield curve :
Credits : Eurodollar University. By Jeff Snyder Note : Yield should be higher if the time horizon is higher. Meaning shorter end like 2 yr to 5 yr should yield less than 10 yr and 20 yr normally due to unknown risks associated in far future. But look here in these charts. A 52 w t-bill is yielding more than 20 yr and 10 yr bonds. That’s insane. It tells us there is a danger in next 1-2yrs as compared to far in future. The curve has gone banana's b/w 26 w t-bill to 10 yr bond. After 10 yr to 20 yr curve looks so good and why won't it. Because after the most horrible decade in entire history of Usa will come a little less horrible decade. Haha. Result : I can confidently say yields are going up in respective bonds. But will basic yield curve i.e us10y-us02y will steepen or invert more is out of my pay grade. Step 11 : VIX. It looks so ready to pop anytime. I mean what do i even say here. This whole year traders are buying Vix calls in 20 and shorting equities and as the Vix goes 30 they sell their calls and buy puts. Meanwhile longing their equities position. So smart Vix traders, it's time to integrate the mega crash in your calculations. Meaning do the first phase of second part but leave tf out of second phase of second part i.e. don't buy puts on Vix and don't try to long equity in 30 coz this time folks are going to promised Vix 40+. Result : Vix is going up. Reason : It's mid terms + Putin x Jinpig x Biden at G8 = Volatility in Sept - Nov. Conclusion : Financial derivation = Take those steps into consideration that you are confident in your analysis. So I chose my Eur-usd pokemon. Reason : I am quite confident in my analysis and Lagarde. Plus Fed minutes made a commentary about this that dollar is looking so strong as comparison to Euro. Maybe this too played a part in their recent dovish commentary. Assuming : Eur usd is going down coz Europe is f’ed. ( We were most confident about this in all of our steps. Also my birdie told me 0.93 eur-usd traders have risen from their grave in options market ) Above assumption ( proving in step 1 t.a. ) will mean :
But what about bonds?
Final Result : Every step we proved above using technical analysis on weekly and monthly time frame is being backed by my financial derivation except one thing. Will us10y-us02y curve invert more or steepen.? Coz steepening is bad for dollar strength whereas more inversion is good for dollar strength i.e. Dxy. P.s. I think i'm so confused. Damn these bonds are tough to read. Note : I forgot Dr copper. Lol. Why is it going up when Gold and other metals is going down? *** Illuminati said : "Coz Dxy move up or bond yields move up is not because of rate hikes. They all are priced in. It's because of pseudo rate hikes on the Global market that is causing dollar to strengthen. This is due to QT + Eur-usd , Gbp-usd going down. Throw Japanese yen in there too but its chart is going up coz its Usd-jpy pair not Jpy-usd. Just like i said before too. Farewell : Thank you guys for your patience in reading an 8yr old post with naruto references w/o even mentioning Naruto anywhere coz Itachi stole the show. xD I am so tired guys coz i was busy writing stuff for you guys whatever was coming to my mind and leaving no mistake in my final calculations. Take care guys. I hope one of you becomes a billionaire in this Wsb group and then pump meme stock for future generations. So suck the life out of me in the comments section. I will reply to every single one of your queries one last time. ( Now playing David Guetta : Just one last time ) Again like i always say. Don't forget your friends and family. Call them once every week. Be humble, stay safe and eat healthy. With lots of love Regards Uchiha x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x THE END Sayonara...!!! |
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 | Calendars for market moving eventsPlease note that different events have varying degrees of importance to the market. These calendars all contain the most important events -- which one you decide to use is a personal preference.Investing.com Forex Factory MarketWatch Newsfeed for active news traders (paid)TradeXchange Affiliate Link ($99/3 months) News sourcesBloomberg newsletter subscriptions - few people have recommended "Five Things to Start Your Day"https://www.marketwatch.com/ https://finance.yahoo.com/ https://finviz.com/ - if you type in the symbol, you'll find relevant news articles and StockTwit comments at the bottom of the page News sources (Twitter, misc.)Community member post: A free method to find news fast using TweetDeckWalter Bloomberg Discord - click on the Discord icon About the FOMCDaytraders need to know that the FOMC statement and conference causes volatility in the market. Please reference the 5-minute chart on past FOMC days to get an idea of what kind of volatility one can expect. March 15, 2017 FOMC statement November 2, 2022 FOMC statement Investopedia article on the FOMC Please read the Investopedia article if you are unfamiliar with the FOMC. Official CME FedWatch Tool This is the website gives a countdown to the next FOMC, as well as the projected target rates according to the rates futures market. While the FOMC meeting actually begins on Tuesday, the statement is released on Wednesday at 14:00, and the press conference is held at 14:30. Traders should be concerned with market volatility surrounding the statement release, which occurs on FOMC Wednesday at 14:00, and once again at 14:30 when the press conference is held. This is unrelated to the release of FOMC minutes, which is also a market moving event (albeit less significant than the FOMC statement). Official Federal Reserve Calendar This is the official website of the Federal Reserve, and it contains download links for FOMC statements and minutes for your reading pleasure. About the CPIDaytraders need to know that when the market is concerned about inflation, the CPI release can be market moving.June 10, 2022 CPI (market is very concerned about inflation) July 11, 2019 CPI (market is less concerned with inflation) Investopedia article on the CPI Official release schedule of the CPI The CPI number is always released at 8:30 AM during pre-market hours. You must use your Calendar of market moving events (see the first section of this post) to verify the day it's released each month. |
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 | PARTs summary: (will add links as these posts go live). submitted by Elegant-Remote6667 to Superstonk [link] [comments] part 1- january part 2 - february Part 3 - march +list of great apes and the DD they brought (from jan 2021 to current) part 4 - april part 5 -may part 6 -june 2021 part 7 july 2021 part 8 august 2021 part 9 september 2021 (DRS REALLY STARTS OFF HERE) part 10 October -2021 part 11- november part 12 - December (2021) Part 13- January 2022 (the wise ape is here) part 14- February 2022 Part 15- March 2022 Part 16- APril to June 2022 part 17 -summary Hello everyone, Ape historian here with the biggest fricking post to date. the way i wrote this post out was to use my dashboard that i hope everyone now knows about. For those nee a backstory - i am ape historian - i have been archiving the gme subs on my site and via my setup (reached 90tb total usable space a few days ago! massive milestone) and I am backing everything up. i am now going back in tiem to recreate the events from the sneeze to now, and this post is FEB/ MARCH time. END OF FEBRUARYthe deletions continue for those who havent seen my previous two posts - if you dont have a permalink to a delted post you cannot get it from wayback machine or any backup - AND ITS NOT SEARCHABLE. thats the important point - its not searchable. Now posts get deleted for various reasons and I am not saying that all delted posts are suspicious . but int he aggregate i find it strange that a lot of POPcorn posts and silver posts stayed up on the original uusb sub - and you can freely check out my dashboard and doouble check me on this. but the dd for gme was "deleted"- or so they thought. here is what this dude had to say: POST START Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, and much of this information is not my own, sourced from other DD’s, many that have been removed. As many of you know, on the 17th of this month, Interactive Brokers Chairman Thomas Peterffy had a CNBC interview (Automod won't let me link it?) where he goes on to explain the fundamentals of the short squeeze. However, this whole ordeal might be a whole lot bigger than we had ever imagined. Tom (or should we go with Tommy?) goes on to illustrate the idea that they had to regulate the stock, as if they had not it would have caused a collapse of the entire market. While Tom might very well be simply lying to us to give an excuse, let’s play his game, and ponder this idea for a second. Tom states without the regulation, brokers would have been obligated to deliver 270 million shares, while only 50 million shares existed. 540% of shares. Vlad, CEO of RobinHood, also told us that on the day of the halt they had an order volume of 3 Billion, that they could not fulfill. Tom continues the interview, admitting that without the regulation, GameStop stock would have surged into the thousands, yes plural. Maybe the reason all of this has truly become such a battle, is because of how seriously scared the other side of the trade really is. Finra’s latest short interest update gives us a value of 78.46%. However, there are many reasons why this could be falsely construed. For one, Finra had announced new ways of calculating short interest, letting the synthetic longs drive this down. Another reason this may be low is this data is not fully up-to-date and does not take into account the fall from 100 to where we are now. So, what is the true short interest then? Well, let’s take breakdown GME share ownership alongside the findings of corrode1024 DD- Insider Ownership: 23,704,787 Institutions: 151,000,000 Funds: 40,000,000 Retail: 38,595,000 Total Owned: 253,299,787 Total Outstanding: 69,746,960 Percentage of ownership to outstanding: 363.17% Estimated Synthetic Shares: 183,552,827 FINRA Short % of Float: 78.46% Finviz Float: 50,650,000 Reported Shares Shorted: 35,538,624 Total Estimated Short (Synthetic + Reported) 219,091,451 Percentage of Shorts to the Float: 432.56% If you would like a deeper breakdown of corrode1024’s data, check out his DD. But yes, the short interest may be a whopping ~432.56%. Last week, u/thabat (yes -the thabat you know who Now, I know, lol. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. That is a completely crazy fucking number. I mean, right? It has to be? But I mean, if this whole thing really is bigger than we thought, and it really could cause an entire collapse of the markets. This could be one of the biggest exchanges of wealth in the history of the world. If SI really is ~400%, shorts covering at infinitely higher and higher prices certainly could drive it up to astronomical heights. the image from that post - courtesy of wayback machine. If this is what our models show, imagine the models and algorithms these big firms have. This may very well be why they are so frightened. They have dug themselves into a hole below bedrock. All of this seems to line up with what Vlad and Tom have now told us. Without regulation, this squeeze will be the Mother of all Short Squeezes. So now, alongside our Dogfather Cohen, we shall wait patiently for a catalyst. Just like on the last squeeze to $483, we required a catalyst to get us there. Don’t forget the information we knew in November and December. Board spots are opening up in July which Cohen will take advantage of, Cohen could up his stake. Earnings in March. Who knows what could happen. It is important to remember the gaming industry is the largest industry in the world, and we are still in its infancy. Older generations continue to laugh down the importance of gaming, but as our generation grows up gaming is only going to evolve and get bigger. GameStop is the only retailer dedicated to gaming and has a surplus of centers that big competitors like Amazon do not. We are basically right back where we were in NovembeDecember. The stock price does not matter. If short interest is at 400%, or if short interest is at 80%. Both are insanely high SI values, and a squeeze is inevitable, one that sends us to 500 or one that sends us to 50,000. With high short interest, a squeeze is inevitable. NEVER forget that. So, continue to hold fellow apes. May your hands turn to diamonds and your balls to steel. 💎🙌 Edit: Also don't forget the other CNBC interview with our boy Tommy where he also admitted that they halted to save themselves. Or the CNBC interview with Vlad where he said it multiple times assuredly that it WAS NOT a liquidity issue, but that is his reasoning now. (You can find these 2 interviews on youtube, AutoMod wont let me link youtube) Ape historian superfind 10: this video shows up again - https://youtu.be/RfEuNHVPc_k?t=5419 remember the hearing - well here is the point where they tried to setup DFV to say something. and DFV wasnt taking it. from \"Why GameStop was going to cause a collapse of the entire market, and why it is still going to:\" the above post mentioned corrode1024 didnt it - lets have a look - i need more wrinkles than i have to understand this all. corrode mentions aah_soy whom we did see in our previous part 2 of the post where he accurately figured out synthetic shortselling - a FUCKING YEAR before most of the apes figured out what that meant. but somehow his account got deleted. nevermind. u/jeepers_sheepers finds at the early start of feb 2021 that XRT, you know - THAT XRT has an SI of 800%. post title - "XRT is being used to hide GME shorts. XRT currently sits at 190% SHORT FLOAT. Peaking on 2/1 at over 800% SHORT FLOAT!!" somehow also deleted and we saw this post in part 2. strange. huh what could it possibly be? but if you search on my dashboard you will have the post. the post also mentions that there already was an archive before my time - on stonking.info - but that got taken down. or did it? heh not from me. you see how this shit gets hard to pindown once "deleted" is on the menu? you can se how if i didnt have access to all the subs, full search, and wayback machine there is NO FUCKING WAY i would find this. ever.https://web.archive.org/web/2021*/stonking.infothe site is dead but here is what was posted: https://web.archive.org/web/20210220162502/https://www.stonking.info/post/evidence-that-gme-shorts-are-not-covering part1 \"the first mention of synthetic shares that i can find\". and before sec decides to wipe that 2013 paper off here is the link to it- https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/ocie/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20210215001445/https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/ocie/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf and here is another article from tradesmith daily -https://web.archive.org/web/20210225044538/https://tradesmithdaily.com/investing-strategies/the-drop-in-gamestop-short-interest-could-be-real-or-deceptive-market-manipulation/ \"the hedge funds can use tricks to make it look like they have covered their shorts- even if they havent\" - this is from the sec document. Fun huh? so we have in feb of 2021 already some understanding about how hedgies are manipulating THE PERCIEVED SHORT INTERESST IN GME WITH XRT SHORTING AND SYNTHETIC LONGS. remember this prhase it will come in usefull later. in march stonking will come back with more points around synthetic shares, counterfeight shares and phantom shares. fuck i have read some of this but never sat down to read it all.just reminding everyone that all this is available on this dashboard - free to access, no license, no tracking. full post search on the left, title and author search on the right. subreddit and date dropdowns. MARCH - the day of runups and the birth of the stonk and AMAs!for this one you need to remember phantom shares,and a few other keywords.u/atobitt publishes the everything short and citadel has no clothes: but actually they dont make it to superstonk until a little later as a repost. go read both of those posts, its required reading. in short - "The EVERYTHING Short" "TL;DR- Citadel and friends have shorted the treasury bond market to oblivion using the repo market. Citadel owns a company called Palafox Trading and uses them to EXCLUSIVELY short & trade treasury securities. Palafox manages one fund for Citadel - the Citadel Global Fixed Income Master Fund LTD. Total assets over $123 BILLION and 80% are owned by offshore investors in the Cayman Islands. Their reverse repo agreements are ENTIRELY rehypothecated and they CANNOT pay off their own repo agreements until someone pays them, first. The ENTIRE global financial economy is modeled after a fractional reserve system that is beginning to experience THE MOTHER OF ALL MARGIN CALLS. THIS is why the DTC and FICC are requiring an increase in SLR deposits. The madness has officially come full circle." "Citadel Has No Clothes" TL;DR - Citadel Securities has been fined 58 times for violating FINRA, REGSHO & SEC regulations. Several instances are documented as 'willful' naked shorting. In Dec 2020 they reported an increase in their short position of 127.57% YOY, and I'm calling bullsh*t on their shenanigans. Ape historian superfind 11: CITADEL basically does whatever it wants and isnt afraid to show it - more than a year later. and -einfachman- did a stellar piece of DD https://www.reddit.com/Superstonk/comments/v0zrni/burning_cash/ -and all the DD's here. and of course this one: https://www.reddit.com/Superstonk/comments/v4wxkb/i_spoke_with_a_former_citadel_client_heres_what/ but i digress lets get back to march shall we - Wed Mar 17 2021 16:32:47 GMT+0000 (Greenwich Mean Time) Post title "THIS IS HUGE: RobinHood NEVER OWNED YOUR GME SHARES, they got margin called $3B to cover the shares they needed to buy!" - you can always search for post titles in my dashboard to find the OG post and all the backup links. funny how this keep getting deleted. why? are people really deleting their dd with 40k upvotes? here is the wayback link: hehe you thought it was lost. \"THIS IS HUGE: RobinHood NEVER OWNED YOUR GME SHARES, they got margin called $3B to cover the shares they needed to buy!\" There is a post that this post links- "the post is titled "robinhood the missing link" on the 17th march 2021- and its in my dashboard as well. \"In this scenario, RobinHood continuously sends order flow buy and sell orders to Citadel (I'm just using Citadel as a name, it could be any market maker). When a trader enters a buy order, that order is sent to the MM, and the price is set for the trade and the trader is given access to their shares at the current price. RobinHood has fulfilled their agreement to best-price, and the MM paid for the order, and the customer has access to their shares.\" this was posted by u/theguyonthereddits the main point here is this: But that doesn't mean that the MM actually went through with purchasing or selling those share orders yet. They paid for the order, but they only need to execute it "in a reasonable time". https://financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/hhrg-117-ba00-wstate-arnuks-20210317.pdf "2) They recently changed their PFOF method from one giving them a set payment per share to one giving them a percentage of the spread instead. Think about this: A Robinhood trader wants the spread in the stocks he/she is trading to be as narrow as possible. The HFT market maker buying those orders benefit most when that spread is as wide as possible. And now Robinhood benefits most when the spread is as wide as possible as well! This is an amazing misalignment of interests. " "While PFOF is legal, we have long wondered how it possibly could be. How can a broker, charged with the duty of getting its clients the best available prices, possibly do so by selling that client’s orders to amazingly sophisticated HFT firms, who in turn will make billions of dollars trading against these orders?" Forex brokers and MMs are well-known to take inverse positions to retail trades. I think RobinHood was as well. CFD brokers have to delta hedge their actual holdings as their clients positions become profitable. As long as the clients are losing money, there is no reason to ever buy the securities, as the position is just going to lose money anyways. CFD brokers will only buy the security you own if that security starts becoming profitable and it will cost RobinHood more money to buy the share later. They are basically shorting your shares on their books. "While retail brokers and market making firms, claim that price improvement (PI) accrues to retail investor orders, such price improvement is a flawed calculation:
"It should surprise no one that investor orders do not dominate these races; HFT Market makers do. Investors’ orders typically find themselves further back in the queue. As a result, investors miss opportunities at buying cheaper stock, and when they do get filled they are subject to outsized adverse selection. Despite this, brokers representing investors still route largely to these exchanges for that rebate." Once RobinHood sells your orders to Citadel, Citadel can buy or sell the needed shares on any exchange they want to, to get themselves the best spread on the price difference. WHEN YOU BUY SHARES ON ROBINHOOD, YOU ARE NOT AFFECTING THE ACTUAL MARKET ORDERS. Your shares that you are buying/selling get collected by Citadel, and they can then buy/sell as they see fit with those orders. Citadel can collect a large batch of buy orders, and then BUY those shares on a dark pool exchange that DOES NOT DRIVE UP THE ACTIVE MARKET PRICE. And they can also collect large sell orders into one large batch, and then SELL those shares on the ACTUAL MARKET WHICH ACTUALLY DOES DRIVE THE ACTIVE PRICE DOWN. That is why you can see huge dumps on days with the SSR active and no large selling volume. Citadel/MM are capable of keeping ALL of the buying pressure OFF of the open exchanges, while simultaneously loading up sell orders to dump at once ON the open exchanges. "• In January 2021, a record 47.19% of US stock-market volume traded “off-exchange and on February 9th we hit an all-time record of 50.47%, with retail representing 1/3rd of total US ADV" Over 50% of all trading activity is done off-exchange. And retail is 1/3 of the total daily volume. They can literally keep 100% of retail buy orders routed through these MM off of the open exchanges, to avoid YOUR buy orders from driving the price up in real-time. I will stop doing the copy pasta here but that post is definitely worth a read. Ape historian superfind 12: hmm it might be that robinhood never owned the shares- this would explain the PCO. but lets continue in the next part of the series end of march - coourtesy of u/broccaaa - welcome to synthetic shares writeup. post title -"The naked shorting scam update: selling nude like its 2021"from u/broccaaa: "This post updates the possibility of a naked shorting scam with massive hidden FTDs and short interest in 2021. By looking at SEC rules and academic papers I show that rule changes do not stop the potential abuses of naked short selling in a material way. Rather they slightly modify how it could be done and optimized. The changes also make the scheme less sustainable on the short side and over time pressure might "coil the spring" and lead to an unprecedented FTD squeeze.With current rules:
Note: this is not financial advice. I am not a cat. I read some papers and made some interpretations. Any number of these could be flawed and wrong. Make your own mind up. Introduction The post I wrote yesterday was based on an economics paper looking at naked short practices that abused options market maker privileges. The paper was written in 2007 and took Overstock shares as an example of of a stock with massive short share fuckery. Here is a great Rolling Stone article showing court documents confirming the illegal short seller activity in Overstock. Despite the clear similarities with GME in 2021certain SEC rules have changed since the paper was written. Which short selling rules have changed and could a modified version of the scam be happening in 2021? With some help from other apes in the comments and a little extra research I'd like to clarify this and provide some thoughts on what might be going on today. SEC rules on short selling and the changes made up until 2006 ( amendments to Regulation SHO under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 ) Regulation SHO, which became fully effective on January 3, 2005, set forth a regulatory framework governing short sales. One of the goals of this was to target potentially abusive “naked” short selling practices in certain equity securities. Additional regulation was put in place to limit the selling of securities without first finding a valid share to borrow. The 2005 implementation failed miserably. A fantastic letter was written in December 2003 by former Undersecretary of Commerce Robert Shapiro and forwarded to the SEC. In the letter Shapiro detailed findings from his own research and his doubts that the proposed changes in the SEC rules would have any material impact on the abusive practices: Ape historian superfind 13: and we get our first introduction to "phantom shares" - https://web.archive.org/web/20190623164454/http://rgmcom.com/articles/PhantomShares.pdfperhaps the most interesting part of that pdf i just posted is the TREND FOR FTDs is going up while clearly the advancement in technology is also going up from 2005 to 2007- so the question is - WHY? why is it going up? is it profiable? and yes every post mentioned here is backed up. In part 5 i will introduce the ipfs archives. its taking a whileApe historian superfind 14: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2867383 "(Naked) Short Selling Around Earnings AnnouncementAND THIS Ape historian superfind 15: https://www.proquest.com/openview/b7759a0d7c621f67d82668197d99c379/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750&diss=y Ape historian superfind 16: AND ANOTHER POST - "Naked Short Selling: The Truth Is Much Worse Than You Have Been Told" \"Naked Short Selling: The Truth Is Much Worse Than You Have Been Told\"-exceprt. so to sum up- this shows in a simple way that actually - apes were right. a few months after this date AMAs from Lucy and Wes and Dr Trimbath will start to unravel this shitstorm. and of course the smithonstocks linksSuperstonk by end of march 2021 had 63 posts. April is where the real shit hides.Ape historian. in comes the first mention of DRS -by Austins-Reddit on 01/Mar /2021. post title "GME Paper Stock Certificates through "ComputerShare" after transferring from TDA"The post below is what i wanted to reach out to you about: "Buy & Hold 2.0 - A theory on how locating REAL shares may trigger a domino effect."oh- \"Buy & Hold 2.0 - A theory on how locating REAL shares may trigger a domino effect.\" -deleted again. funny that. that post from the archives - well the excerpt is below: computershare was postulated by at least one ape in march 2021. TLDR- this entire research peice is fully available - just use my dashbaord and start searching for yourself - this is NOT the only things that happened. this is the main things that I feel accoring to me were most important. standby for part 4. ape historian-destroyer of free disk space |
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 | I am going to write a series of articles introducing some great tools for financial analysis. In this article, I am talking about FINVIZ, a online stock screener and stock analytic tool. submitted by edisonlac to InvestmentClub [link] [comments] From the front page, it provides a lot of information about the daily move of major indexes. and top gainers and losers stocks, individual stock performance in various sectors. It gives a comprehensive summary of the stocks. https://preview.redd.it/s5g6v3lctjy81.png?width=1865&format=png&auto=webp&s=261d8a303f4ed800c949350da569fc522d2376da In the news tab, it gives topline news and blogs chronologically. https://preview.redd.it/ei0y6o13ujy81.png?width=1874&format=png&auto=webp&s=1e87f18f338a9664d647832f579e53e268d6a541 In the screen tab, it has a large selection of stock filters from descriptive, fundamental and technical perspective. All these filters allow one to choose stocks of interest according to different analyses. https://preview.redd.it/jp0nvan2xjy81.png?width=1823&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebb2035bbbc553907476b88ec81fee07fbc26750 In the map tab, it shows the performance of stocks based on market cap in different sectors of chosen time length. https://preview.redd.it/82owbeaqxjy81.png?width=1555&format=png&auto=webp&s=e6490f6f0c0e04b76d306324360651d658e0895c In the group tab, it shows the sector performance of different time length. https://preview.redd.it/5u02hjp4yjy81.png?width=1063&format=png&auto=webp&s=92aa614f78868cff22334c521385e3556f7e3240 In the insider tab, it shows the corporate insider trading information including the price, amount, date and number of shares traded, etc. https://preview.redd.it/6f2mkbxeyjy81.png?width=1810&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b52935d2532857aad36ff050734a70a977681d8 In the futures, forex and crypto tab, it gives the performance of futures across various assets, currencies and cryptos. https://preview.redd.it/w23s31hczjy81.png?width=1412&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3c5b4a032d839eed7495ff90ec23fb3566ff040 In the Elite tabs, it summarizes the different features for FINVIZ Elite. |
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