Hi there investors of Reddit. I have been investing for a very long time on a very small scale and have very little experience in all of the instruments mentioned above. It can get overwhelming when there is too much to look out for and too much going on. So I have decided to specialize in one of the four above, improve at trading the instrument and start making some money. I obviously won't be completely restricted to that instrument but I will spend most of my energy and time working on the said instrument. Which one is your favourite and why?

Hello, just want to share my experience trading forex this week. So I had about $55 in my trading account and started trading GBPJPY on Monday. Won 3 out of 4 trades. But the big wins came from the XAUUSD dump this week in which I took a lot of trades and I got lucky. Felt surreal when my account reached $350 and should’ve probably stopped. But still decided to enter trades and that’s where things got pretty bad. I still have an open trade as of writing and my equity is down. XAUUSD is a beast! Been trading for almost a year now but not regularly and I only trade small amounts. This is the 1st time I made such gain and I’m not sure if I can do this again.
Here’s a screenshot: https://i.postimg.cc/ZY37hRJX/6-F33601-E-C36-A-4702-A31-B-49986022-D6-F6.jpg
Lesson learned:

• Stop staring at the chart after entering a trade. Most of my loss happened because I closed the trade during a reversal. Had I waited and stuck to my plan, I would’ve TP’d most of them.
  
• You don’t have to enter a trade all the damn time. (Bad case of FOMO in my part)
  
• Set your goal and don’t be too greedy
  
• Don’t trade on Fridays (had backtested this already but FOMO)
  

**UPDATE: Been getting DMs asking about my strategy. I use price action and I don’t use any indicators. I draw 1-2 trend lines based from previous strong support and resistance. I want a clean chart as it’s easier for me. I also did 5 years worth of backtesting. My biggest issue, as I’m sure you’ve noticed, are sticking to my trading plan (stop looking at the chart all the time after entering a trade, and closing too soon due to reversals), and discipline (don’t FOMO and setting my goals).
I still don’t consider myself as a “trader” per se, so please do your own backtesting. I was also looking for the “best strategy” when I was starting out, until I realize that your results would largely depend on your attitude vs your strategy.

Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I have no idea what I'm doing. Please do your own research or you will certainly lose money. I'm not a statistician, data scientist, well-seasoned trader, or anything else that would qualify me to make statements such as the below with any weight behind them. Take them for the incoherent ramblings that they are.
TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details.
This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.

Background

For those of you not familiar, please see the various threads on this trading system here. I can't take credit for this system, all glory goes to ParallaxFX!
I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose.
This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem.
I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.

System Details

I'm pretty much using ParallaxFX's system textbook, but since there are a few options in his writeups, I'll include all the discretionary points here:

• I'm using the stop entry version - so I wait for the price to trade beyond the confirmation candle(in the direction of my trade) before entering. I don't have any data to support this decision, but I've always preferred this method over retracement-limit entries. Maybe I just like the feeling of a higher winrate even though there can be greater R:R using a limit entry. Variety is the spice of life.
• I put my stop loss right at the opposite edge of the confirmation candle. NOT at the edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. I'll get into this more below - not enough trades are saved to justify the wider stops. (Wider stop means less $ per pip won, assuming you still only risk 1%).
• All my profit/loss statistics are based on a 1% risk per trade. Because 1 is real easy to multiply.
• There are definitely some questionable trades in here, but I tried to make it as mechanical as possible for evaluation purposes. They do fit the definitions of the system, which is why I included them. You could probably improve the winrate by being more discretionary about your trades by looking at support/resistance or other techniques.
• I didn't use MBB much for either entering trades, or as support/resistance indicators. Again, trying to be pretty mechanical here just for data collection purposes. Plus, we all make bad trading decisions now and then, so let's call it even.
• As stated in the title, this is for H1 only. These results may very well not play out for other time frames - who knows, it may not even work on H1 starting this Monday. Forex is an unpredictable place.
• I collected data to show efficacy of taking profit at three different levels: -61.8%, -100% and -161.8% fib levels described in the system using the passive trade management method(set it and forget it). I'll have more below about moving up stops and taking off portions of a position.

And now for the fun. Results!

• Total Trades: 241
• Raw Winrates:
  • TP at -61.8%: 177 out of 241: 73.44%
  • TP at -100%: 156 out of 241: 64.73%
  • TP at -161.8%: 121 out of 241: 50.20%
• Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
  • TP at -61.8%: 5.22%
  • TP at -100%: 23.55%
  • TP at -161.8%: 29.14%

As you can see, a higher target ended up with higher profit despite a much lower winrate. This is partially just how things work out with profit targets in general, but there's an additional point to consider in our case: the spread. Since we are trading on a lower timeframe, there is less overall price movement and thus the spread takes up a much larger percentage of the trade than it would if you were trading H4, Daily or Weekly charts. You can see exactly how much it accounts for each trade in my spreadsheet if you're interested. TDA does not have the best spreads, so you could probably improve these results with another broker.
EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.

A Note on Spread

As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade(the size of the confirmation candle that you draw your fibonacci retracements over), which would obviously cut heavily into your profits.
Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way).
However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades.
You can get your profits all the way up to 48.43% at the -161.8% TP level if you filter all the way down to only trades where spread is less than 15% of the trade width, however your sample size gets much smaller at that point(108 trades) so I'm not sure I would trust that as being accurate in the long term.
Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.

Time of Day

Time of day had an interesting effect on trades. In a totally predictable fashion, a vast majority of setups occurred during the London and New York sessions: 5am-12pm Eastern. However, there was one outlier where there were many setups on the 11PM bar - and the winrate was about the same as the big hours in the London session. No idea why this hour in particular - anyone have any insight? That's smack in the middle of the Tokyo/Sydney overlap, not at the open or close of either.
On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):

• 7pm-4am: Fewer setups, but winrate high.
• 5am-6am: Lots of setups, but but winrate low.
• 12pm-3pm Medium number of setups, but winrate low.

I don't have any reason to think these timeframes would maintain this behavior over the long term. They're almost certainly meaningless. EDIT: When you de-dup highly correlated trades, the number of trades in these timeframes really drops, so from this data there is no reason to think these timeframes would be any different than any others in terms of winrate.
That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.

Moving stops up to breakeven

This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I'd love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that's a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers.
Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability.
One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)?
Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results appear to be. Emphasis on appears because I honestly don't believe it. I must have done something wrong here, but I've gone over it a hundred times and I can't find anything out of place.

• Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%
  • Winrate: 46.4%
  • Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 5.36%
• Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%
  • Winrate: 65.97%
  • Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): -1.01% (yes, a net loss)

Now, you might think exactly what I did when looking at these numbers: oof, the spread killed us there right? Because even when you move your SL to 0%, you still end up paying the spread, so it's not truly "breakeven". And because we are trading on a lower timeframe, the spread can be pretty hefty right?
Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:

• Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%
  • Winrate(breakeven doesn't count as a win): 46.4%
  • Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 17.97%
• Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%
  • Winrate(breakeven doesn't count as a win): 65.97%
  • Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 11.60%

From a literal standpoint, what I see behind this behavior is that 44 of the 69 breakeven trades(65%!) ended up being profitable to -100% after retracing deeply(but not to the original SL level), which greatly helped offset the purely losing trades better than the partial profit taken at -61.8%. And 36 went all the way back to -161.8% after a deep retracement without hitting the original SL. Anyone have any insight into this? Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I'm no expert.
I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall.
The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.

2-Candle vs Confirmation Candle Stops

Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level(for stop entries) just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. Out of pure laziness, I set up my stops just based on the confirmation candle. And as it turns out, that is much a much better way to go about it.
Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL.
Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.

Correlated Trades

As I've said many times now, I'm really not qualified to be doing an analysis like this. This section in particular.
Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system.
This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here).
Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses.
Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels).
Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant.
One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak.
EDIT: WOW I spent some time removing correlated trades manually and it changed the results quite a bit. Some thoughts on this below the results. These numbers also include the other "What I will trade" filters. I added a new worksheet to my data to show what I ended up picking.

• Total Trades: 75
• Raw Winrates:
  • TP at -61.8%: 84.00%
  • TP at -100%: 73.33%
  • TP at -161.8%: 60.00%
  • Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%: 53.33%
  • Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%: 53.33% (yes, oddly the exact same winrate. but different trades/profits)
• Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
  • TP at -61.8%: 18.13%
  • TP at -100%: 26.20%
  • TP at -161.8%: 34.01%
  • Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%: 19.20%
  • Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%: 17.29%

To do this, I removed correlated trades - typically by choosing those whose spread had a lower % of the trade width since that's objective and something I can see ahead of time. Obviously I'd like to only keep the winning trades, but I won't know that during the trade. This did reduce the overall sample size down to a level that I wouldn't otherwise consider to be big enough, but since the results are generally consistent with the overall dataset, I'm not going to worry about it too much.
I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system.
This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions.
There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated.
I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful.
Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.

What I will trade

Putting all this together, I am going to attempt to trade the following(demo for a bit to make sure I have the hang of it, then for keeps):

• "System Details" I described above.
• TP at -161.8%
• Static SL at opposite side of confirmation candle - I won't move stops up to breakeven.
• Trade only 7am-11am and 4pm-11pm signals.
• Nothing where spread is more than 25% of trade width.

Looking at the data for these rules, test results are:

• Winrate: 58.19%
• Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 47.43%

I'll be sure to let everyone know how it goes!

Other Technical Details

• ATR is only slightly elevated in this date range from historical levels, so this should fairly closely represent reality even after the COVID volatility leaves the scalpers sad and alone.
• The sample size is much too small for anything really meaningful when you slice by hour or pair. I wasn't particularly looking to test a specific pair here - just the system overall as if you were going to trade it on all pairs with a reasonable spread.

Raw Data

Here's the spreadsheet for anyone that'd like it. (EDIT: Updated some of the setups from the last few days that have fully played out now. I also noticed a few typos, but nothing major that would change the overall outcomes. Regardless, I am currently reviewing every trade to ensure they are accurate.UPDATE: Finally all done. Very few corrections, no change to results.)
I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.

• I'm on the East Coast in the US, so the timestamps are Eastern time.
• Time stamp is from the confirmation candle, not the indecision candle. So 7am would mean the indecision candle was 6:00-6:59 and the confirmation candle is 7:00-7:59 and you'd put in your order at 8:00.
• I found a couple AM/PM typos as I was reviewing the data, so let me know if a trade doesn't make sense and I'll correct it.

Insanely detailed spreadsheet notes

For you real nerds out there. Here's an explanation of what each column means:

• Pair - duh
• Date/Time - Eastern time, confirmation candle as stated above
• Win to -61.8%? - whether the trade made it to the -61.8% TP level before it hit the original SL.
• Win to -100%? - whether the trade made it to the -100% TP level before it hit the original SL.
• Win to -161.8%? - whether the trade made it to the -161.8% TP level before it hit the original SL.
• Retracement level between -61.8% and -100% - how deep the price retraced after hitting -61.8%, but before hitting -100%. Be careful to look for the negative signs, it's easy to mix them up. Using the fib% levels defined in ParallaxFX's original thread. A plain hyphen "-" means it did not retrace, but rather went straight through -61.8% to -100%. Positive 100 means it hit the original SL.
• Retracement level between -100% and -161.8% - how deep the price retraced after hitting -100%, but before hitting -161.8%. Be careful to look for the negative signs, it's easy to mix them up. Using the fib% levels defined in ParallaxFX's original thread. A plain hyphen "-" means it did not retrace, but rather went straight through -100% to -161.8%. Positive 100 means it hit the original SL.
• Trade Width(Pips) - the size of the confirmation candle, and thus the "width" of your trade on which to determine position size, draw fib levels, etc.
• Loser saved by 2 candle stop? - for all losing trades, whether or not the 2-candle stop loss would have saved the trade and how far it ended up getting if so. "No" means it didn't save it, N/A means it wasn't a losing trade so it's not relevant.
• Spread(ThinkorSwim) - these are typical spreads for these pairs on ToS.
• Spread % of Width - How big is the spread compared to the trade width? Not used in any calculations, but interesting nonetheless.
• True Risk(Trade Width + Spread) - I set my SL at the opposite side of the confirmation candle knowing that I'm actually exposing myself to slightly more risk because of the spread(stop order = market order when submitted, so you pay the spread). So this tells you how many pips you are actually risking despite the Trade Width. I prefer this over setting the stop inside from the edge of the candle because some pairs have a wide spread that would mess with the system overall. But also many, many of these trades retraced very nearly to the edge of the confirmation candle, before ending up nicely profitable. If you keep your risk per trade at 1%, you're talking a true risk of, at most, 1.25% (in worst-case scenarios with the spread being 25% of the trade width as I am going with above).
• Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -61.8% - not going to go into huge detail, see the spreadsheet for calculations if you want. But, in a nutshell, if the trade was a win to 61.8%, it returns a positive # based on 61.8% of the trade width, minus the spread. Otherwise, it returns the True Risk as a negative. Both normalized to the 1% risk you started with.
• Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -100% - same as the last, but 100% of Trade Width.
• Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -161.8% - same as the last, but 161.8% of Trade Width.
• Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -100%, and move SL to breakeven at 61.8% - uses the retracement level columns to calculate profit/loss the same as the last few columns, but assuming you moved SL to 0% fib level after price hit -61.8%. Then full TP at 100%.
• Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread take off half of position at -61.8%, move SL to breakeven, TP 100% - uses the retracement level columns to calculate profit/loss the same as the last few columns, but assuming you took of half the position and moved SL to 0% fib level after price hit -61.8%. Then TP the remaining half at 100%.
• Overall Growth(-161.8% TP, 1% Risk) - pretty straightforward. Assuming you risked 1% on each trade, what the overall growth level would be chronologically(spreadsheet is sorted by date).

Pairs

1. AUD/CAD
2. AUD/CHF
3. AUD/JPY
4. AUD/NZD
5. AUD/USD
6. CAD/CHF
7. CAD/JPY
8. CHF/JPY
9. EUAUD
10. EUCAD
11. EUCHF
12. EUGBP
13. EUJPY
14. EUNZD
15. EUUSD
16. GBP/AUD
17. GBP/CAD
18. GBP/CHF
19. GBP/JPY
20. GBP/NZD
21. GBP/USD
22. NZD/CAD
23. NZD/CHF
24. NZD/JPY
25. NZD/USD
26. USD/CAD
27. USD/CHF
28. USD/JPY

TL;DR

Based on the reasonable rules I discovered in this backtest:

• Date range: 6/11-7/3
• Winrate: 58.19%
• Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 47.43%

Demo Trading Results

Since this post, I started demo trading this system assuming a 5k capital base and risking ~1% per trade. I've added the details to my spreadsheet for anyone interested. The results are pretty similar to the backtest when you consider real-life conditions/timing are a bit different. I missed some trades due to life(work, out of the house, etc), so that brought my total # of trades and thus overall profit down, but the winrate is nearly identical. I also closed a few trades early due to various reasons(not liking the price action, seeing support/resistance emerge, etc).
A quick note is that TD's paper trade system fills at the mid price for both stop and limit orders, so I had to subtract the spread from the raw trade values to get the true profit/loss amount for each trade.
I'm heading out of town next week, then after that it'll be time to take this sucker live!

• 86 Trades
  • Date range: 7/9-7/30
  • Winrate: 52.32%
  • Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 20.73%
    • Starting Balance: $5,000
    • Ending Balance: $6,036.51

Live Trading Results

I started live-trading this system on 8/10, and almost immediately had a string of losses much longer than either my backtest or demo period. Murphy's law huh? Anyways, that has me spooked so I'm doing a longer backtest before I start risking more real money. It's going to take me a little while due to the volume of trades, but I'll likely make a new post once I feel comfortable with that and start live trading again.

1. 2h 0m Understand Node.js from the start 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/nodejs-getting-started/?couponCode=AC885F6AC1B28EC9DF33 2 Days left at this price!
2. 10h 33m Stock Trading Momentum Based Strategies - Technical Analysis https://www.udemy.com/course/momentum-indicators-rsi-stoch-williamr-tsi-mfi/?couponCode=2AUG20 2 Days left at this price!
3. 11h 17m Practical Web Development: 22 Courses in 1 https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-web-development-course/?couponCode=PRACTICALWEBAUG2020 2 Days left at this price!
4. 3h 5m Curso de Alteryx para analistas de negocio https://www.udemy.com/course/fundamentos-de-alteryx/?couponCode=146275DAB36D9C7560FC 1 Day left at this price!
5. 0h 36m Introduction and Comparing of HSK with IB, IGCSE Chinese etc https://www.udemy.com/course/introduction-and-comparing-of-hsk-with-ib-igcse-chinese-etc/?couponCode=0BF20FBC09B4C18C4230 2 Days left at this price!
6. 4h 47m Neuroscience for Parents: Happy parents, happier kids https://www.udemy.com/course/neuroscience-for-parents-happy-parents-happier-kids/?couponCode=BTS2020 2 Days left at this price!
7. 13h 47m QuickBooks Online-Bookkeeping Business-Easy Way https://www.udemy.com/course/quickbooks-online-2019-bookkeeping-business-easy-way/?couponCode=52516207EFB5575DD9DA 2 Days left at this price!
8. 5h 10m Tax & Adjusting Entry Year-End Accounting Excel Worksheet https://www.udemy.com/course/tax-adjusting-entry-year-end-accounting-excel-worksheet/?couponCode=B66B177E1B440C5566D7 2 Days left at this price!
9. 41h 53m QuickBooks Desktop vs Sage 50cloud Accounting 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/quickbooks-desktop-vs-sage-50cloud-accounting-2020/?couponCode=FAC1FB3ADEBCABCAB3E9 2 Days left at this price!
10. 7h 56m Business Analytics Course 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/best-data-science-business-analytics-course/?couponCode=BUSINESS22 2 Days left at this price!
11. 37h 39m Agile Project Management 200+ Tools with Kanban Scrum Devops https://www.udemy.com/course/agile-project-management-certification-scrumkanbandevops/?couponCode=AGILE81 2 Days left at this price!
12. 1h 15m Resume Masterclass - Professional Interview Magnet Secrets https://www.udemy.com/course/resume-masterclass-professional-interview-magnet-secrets/?couponCode=D41322F2A9C724829983 2 Days left at this price!
13. 0h 35m RoboAuthor: Content Writing Automation 2020 - Part 1 https://www.udemy.com/course/roboauthor-content-writing-automation-2019-part-1/?couponCode=FIRSTTRY 2 Days left at this price!
14. 5h 5m Build an Amazon Affiliate E-Commerce Store from Scratch https://youaccel.com/admin/cdisplay.php?cid=889085&tsrc=225691&promocc=yes&promocode=FREEBIESGLOBAL 2 Days left at this price!
15. 1h 33m Adobe Dreamweaver CC 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/adobe-dreamweaver-cc-2020-master-course/?couponCode=TRY10FREE94 2 Days left at this price!
16. 1h 13m Adobe Audition CC 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/adobe-audition-cc-2020-master-course/?couponCode=TRY10FREE94 2 Days left at this price!
17. 1h 30m Adobe Animate CC 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/adobe-animate-cc-2020-master-course/?couponCode=TRY10FREE94 2 Days left at this price!
18. 2h 14m Adobe Illustrator CC 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/adobe-illustrator-cc-2020-master-course/?couponCode=TRY10FREE94 2 Days left at this price!
19. 2h 18m Adobe Photoshop CC 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/adobe-photoshop-cc-2020-master-course/?couponCode=TRY10FREE94 2 Days left at this price!
20. 1h 34m Adobe InDesign CC 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/adobe-indesign-cc-2020-master-course/?couponCode=TRY10FREE94 2 Days left at this price!
21. 0h 43m YouTube SEO mini course (Get more views) in Arabic https://www.udemy.com/course/youtube-seo-mini-course/?couponCode=LAYA10 1 Day left at this price!
22. 3h 27m Learn JavaScript from Zero https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-javascript-from-zero/?couponCode=841EC818C98D71805B4D 1 Day left at this price!
23. 0h 52m English Grammar tenses & structures https://www.udemy.com/course/english-grammar-course-tenses-structures/?couponCode=AUGUSTFOUR 2 Days left at this price!
24. 1h 6m The Little Things Do Matter https://www.udemy.com/course/the-little-things-matte?couponCode=SPECIALGIFT 2 Days left at this price!
25. 360 questions Professional Scrum Master certification Practice Tests PSM1 https://www.udemy.com/course/professional-scrum-master-certification-practice-tests-psm1/?couponCode=C663F497F9CE80A8D0DF 2 Days left at this price!
26. 22h 57m The Complete Fitness & Health Masterclass - 21 Courses in 1 https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-fitness-health-masterclass/?couponCode=3EDE5A05CDBE79F4A449 2 Days left at this price!
27. 11h 40m Curso Excel y Power BI – Análisis y Visualización de Datos https://www.udemy.com/course/curso-tutorial-aprender-como-usar-power-bi-excel-ejercicios-practicos/?couponCode=AGO20-2 2 Days left at this price!
28. 6h 2m A Complete Introduction to Online Market Research https://www.udemy.com/course/intro-to-online-market-research/?couponCode=16EA7E93BBE6FE05B29A 1 Day left at this price!
29. 1h 57m Learn HTML5 Programming From Beginner to Pro https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-html5-programming-from-beginner-to-pro/
30. 1h 46m Learn CSS - For Beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-css-for-beginners/?couponCode=YOUACCELAUG4U 1 Day left at this price!
31. 9h 40m Tableau Training: Master Tableau For Data Science https://www.udemy.com/course/tableau-training-master-tableau-for-data-science/?couponCode=TABLEAU22 1 Day left at this price!
32. 1h 14m Lean Management in 2020: Agile + Kanban with 7+ Tools & Tips https://www.udemy.com/course/lean-management-a/?couponCode=LEAN22 1 Day left at this price!
33. 0h 53m Successful Job Interview Strategies, Interview Preparation https://www.udemy.com/course/get-your-dream-job-now-l/?couponCode=989582052EA202A09B19 1 Day left at this price!
34. 6h 18m iMovie 2020 - Complete Video Editing Course: Beginner to Pro https://www.udemy.com/course/imovie-video-editing/?couponCode=502FEA351F4186327DCA 1 Day left at this price!
35. 1h 9m Ultimate Microsoft Word (بالعربية Word كورس) https://www.udemy.com/course/microsoft-word-2019-in-arabic/?couponCode=MOOCY.ME 2 Days left at this price!
36. 1h 11m Ultimate Microsoft Excel 2019 (بالعربية Excel كورس) https://www.udemy.com/course/microsoft-excel-2019-in-arabic/?couponCode=MOOCY.ME 2 Days left at this price!
37. 0h 34m How to Build Pro LinkedIn Profile- بناء حساب إحترافي لينكدين https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-build-pro-linkedin-profile/?couponCode=MOOCY.ME 2 Days left at this price!
38. 2h 44m The complete forex course from scratch to professional https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-forex-course-from-scratch-to-professional/?couponCode=54B05F9163BF9BB80222 2 Days left at this price!
39. 3h 59m LumaFusion Guide - LumaFusion 2.2+ for Complete Beginners V2 https://www.udemy.com/course/ultimate-guide-to-lumafusion-2-for-complete-beginners/?couponCode=96000912A312AA7A3D0A 2 Days left at this price!
40. 6h 53m Complete Google Classroom Course: Teaching Google Classroom https://www.udemy.com/course/complete-google-classroom-course-teaching-google-classroom/?couponCode=A0365538160FBE631F28
41. 2h 55m Complete Goal Achievement Course - Personal Success Goals https://www.udemy.com/course/complete-goal-achievement-course-personal-success-goals/?couponCode=02E03CADCE4537109BE2 6 hours left at this price!
42. 5h 16m 超级沟通术，让你再也没有搞不定的人和事! https://www.udemy.com/course/sudthckm/?couponCode=B56A63906F52461359D1 5 hours left at this price!
43. 4h 9m Complete Google Slides Course - Create Stunning Slides https://www.udemy.com/course/complete-google-slides-course-create-stunning-slides/?couponCode=356CED7816D33E786501 1 day left at this price!
44. 28h 28m Winning Communication Skills for Telephone, Conference Calls https://www.udemy.com/course/telephone-conference-calls-workplace-communication-skills/?couponCode=86E409F4B6B86CCDF49B 2 Days left at this price!
45. 6h 57m Media Training for Doctors/Healthcare Pros: Master the Media https://www.udemy.com/course/media-training-for-doctors-and-healthcare-professionals/?couponCode=763BAE51D8682ECAF9C8 2 Days left at this price!
46. 6h 57m The Guide to Freelancing in the Modern Gig Economy https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-be-a-successful-freelancer-in-the-modern-gig-economy/?couponCode=3F553CD1F4275E56003D 2 Days left at this price!
47. 29h 15m Listening Skills - The Ultimate Workplace Soft Skills https://www.udemy.com/course/listening-skills-the-ultimate-workplace-soft-skills/?couponCode=8978566EB43221AA7FDD 2 Days left at this price!
48. 1h 13m Online Course Creation: Complete Course of Blunders to Avoid https://www.udemy.com/course/online-course-creation-complete-course-of-blunders-to-avoid/?couponCode=493158553FA417107A4B 2 Days left at this price!

Best Seller Discounted Courses

1. 29h 15m Complete Presentation Skills Masterclass for Every Occasion $10.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/complete-presentation-skills-masterclass-for-every-occasion/?couponCode=THANKS
2. 31h 15m Soft Skills: The 11 Essential Career Soft Skills $11.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/soft-skills-the-11-essential-career-soft-skills/?couponCode=D7E3D07A6C92ACEF1280
3. 31 Hours The Agile Methodology for Project Risk Managers $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/the-agile-methodology-for-project-risk-managers/?couponCode=AGILE9
4. 8 Hours Effective Problem-solving and Decision-making under Pressure $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/effective-problem-solving-and-decision-making-under-pressure/?couponCode=SOLVE9

Best Selling Eduonix 8 E-Degrees:

1. $32.50 DevOps E-degree
2. $32.50 Fullstack JavaScript Developer E-Degree
3. $34 Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning E-Degree
4. $34 MERN Stack Developer E-Degree Program
5. $37.50 Advance Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning E-Degree
6. $39 IoT E-degree – The Novice to Expert Program in IOT
7. $42.50 Cybersecurity E-Degree
8. $45 Cloud Computing E-Degree

I have noticed Commodities are such as gold, silver, crude oil, etc., are typical ranging markets on the 1 hour, vs forex which is typically a trending market. This seems to be just how these markets are set up, and has nothing to do with a specific indicator. My question is, is this true? Do some markets always follow a ranging pattern for years and years and some others a trending pattern? This would be good news as I have found a strategy that works great for ranging markets.

BNP Paribas
​

• Since mid-April, financial tensions have been easing in the emerging countries. Bolstered by the very gradual return of portfolio investment, exchange rates have stabilised.

​

• Since mid-May, cumulative net inflows of non-resident portfolio investment into bond and equity markets amounted to USD 22 bn (according to data from the Institute for International Finance (IIF) for a selection of 20 emerging countries), compared to cumulative net outflows of USD 100 bn from the end of February to mid-May

​

• As a result, the emerging market currencies have regained some of the ground lost in the first 3 to 4 months of the year (+1.6% on average since mid-March, vs. -6% in Q1). Equity prices, in contrast, have erased most of their losses (+17% on average since the end of March, vs. -20% in Q1). Is this normalisation process, which is very advanced in the equity markets, truly justified?

​

• cyclical indicators suggest a recovery in H2 2020. Yet the size and diffusion of the recovery remains highly uncertain. For this reason, the rebound in local equity markets seems a bit excessive and even premature. In Brazil, India and Mexico, the pandemic is not under control, and some governments have even imposed new, selective lockdowns.

​

• Despite the surge in fiscal deficits, for the moment we have not observed any difficulties in refinancing public debt. Bond yields have been held down through conventional monetary easing (via policy rate cuts, which have been widespread throughout the emerging countries) and/or through quantitative easing (by expanding the ways in which central banks can refinance banks and indirectly companies, or through the monetary financing of fiscal deficits). Yet if the pandemic persists, this financial support will not prevent an upsurge in delinquencies and non-performing loans.

​

• Lastly, higher risk premiums on sovereign debt in the local currency increase the attractiveness of carry trades and the inflow of volatile capital at a time when the emerging countries need financial stability even more than usual. For of a selection of 17 emerging countries, the median yield spread between the sovereign bond and a bond with an equivalent maturity in the financing currency (USD, EUR or JPY) remained stable at about 450 basis points (bp) between end-December 2019 and end-June 2020. But this spread must be looked at in terms of foreign exchange volatility to evaluate the profitability of the carry trade. After taking into account the policy rate differential, and thus the possibility of short-term foreign exchange coverage of positions (via the futures market or currency swaps), the median yield spread has nearly tripled, from 80bp to 200bp. For investors ready to take the risk of rolling over very short-term forex hedges, the spread is very attractive.

I just started a demo account with CMC Markets, and I was wondering if every single asset listed is traded as a CFD? When learning about forex from BabyPips I had the mentality as if I'm literally trading the currency; as in if it were in person, I'd be giving some coins in one currency and receiving another. I guess since CFDs are linear derivatives it doesn't matter as much, but I still feel like there are some additional considerations when trading CFDs vs "actual currency"? Also, what are the maturities on these? Are there even maturities? All the quotes just say "USD/CAD", "EUJPY" etc, but from my understanding of a CFD, you agree to pay the difference from actual and agreed, much like a future, so why are there no maturities?
​
Question 2: For CFDs on things like equity indices, they seem to trade the whole day unlike their underlying. Does this mean say at 9pm EST the S&P500 CFD is just people essentially betting on tomorrow's open? And again with the futures thing, does after-market hours trading in these CFDs affect the real opening price the next day? (If markets are efficient and we assume there are people watching CFD prices like future prices, and then tomorrow's early trades become based on what the futures markets seem to say about the S&P, holding news and other things constant).
​
Question 3: For CFDs with maturity dates like commodities on this platform, how does that work? Again, I'm mostly confused at how CFDs operate without maturities and how they different from futures. On the CMC markets platform, many agricultural commodities come with the suffixes like either "cash" or a maturity date, but currencies and equity indices do not. What does this mean? Those commodities I'm clicking trade on...am I trading a corn CFD? Or a CFD on corn futures? What exactly is the underlying mechanic?
Question 4: yet another example. For the bond indices...what am I looking at on the platform? I just want to get a chart of US treasury yields but I don't think that is available on CMC. What am I looking at when I click UK Gilt Cash or US T-Bond Cash or US T-Bond Jun 2020?
​
Tl;dr Don't understand the mechanics of CFDs and thus I'm not sure what EXACTLY I'm actually trading when I trade things like currency, equity indices, commodities. Surely I'm not actually trading a physical commodity or actual shares. Please note this is specific to CMC markets.
Thanks :)

1. 2h 45m The Bargue Drawing Course https://www.udemy.com/course/the-bargue-drawing-course/?couponCode=A2564D623D4BB342BAF0 1 Day left at this price!
2. 1h 10m Cisco CCNP ENCOR (350-401) - Architecture, Virtualization https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-ccna-cisco/?couponCode=9A9E47000D541BA2BD99 2 Days left at this price!
3. 2h 8m How To Boost Your Immune System To Help Resist COVID-19 https://www.udemy.com/course/how_to_boost_your_immune_system_to_help_resist_covid-19/?couponCode=HELP_DEFEAT_COVID-19 2 Days left at this price!
4. 11h 40m Curso Excel y Power BI – Análisis y Visualización de Datos https://www.udemy.com/course/curso-tutorial-aprender-como-usar-power-bi-excel-ejercicios-practicos/?couponCode=AGO20-2 1 Day left at this price!
5. 29h 14m Listening Skills - The Ultimate Workplace Soft Skills https://www.udemy.com/course/listening-skills-the-ultimate-workplace-soft-skills/?couponCode=8978566EB43221AA7FDD 1 Day left at this price!
6. 3h 55m Internet and Web Development Fundamentals https://youaccel.com/admin/cdisplay.php?tsrc=225691&cid=30&promocode=FREEBIESGLOBAL&promocc=yes 2 Days left at this price!
7. 0h 56m Designing Landing Pages in Figma: Techniques and Processes https://www.udemy.com/course/designing-landing-pages-in-figma-techniques-and-processes/?couponCode=65741F0741DCFC77A28C 2 Days left at this price!
8. 0h 30m Windows Deployment Services (WDS) on Windows Server 2019 https://www.udemy.com/course/windows-deployment-services-wds-windows-server-2019/?couponCode=AUGUST2020 2 Days left at this price!
9. 100 questions Cyber Security Skills Test With Explanation https://www.udemy.com/course/cyber-security-skills-test-with-explanation/?couponCode=TESTNOW 1 Day left at this price!
10. 2h 32m The Complete Practical Touch Typing Course https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-type-like-a-pro/?couponCode=488B681D9D6321D01108 2 Days left at this price!
11. 4h 32m Complete Guide to Pinterest & Pinterest Growth 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/pinheroes/?couponCode=9E0DA49CED3694DF691D 2 Days left at this price!
12. 2h 24m Fresher Hiring the Complete guide : Best Hiring Practices https://www.udemy.com/course/campus-hiring-the-complete-end-to-end-guide/?couponCode=CC07D99EE8B2C7104D30 2 Days left at this price!
13. 1h 55m x64dbg Debugger for Reverse Engineering Beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/x64dbg-debugge?couponCode=XDBG_AUG21
14. 0h 55m Remote Desktop Services For Beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/remote-desktop-services-windows-server-for-beginners/
15. 9h 58m Java Programming for Complete Stranger in Tamil https://www.udemy.com/course/java-programming-for-complete-stranger-in-tamil/?couponCode=EB5DB553994FDB56157B 2 Days left at this price!
16. 4h 48m Microsoft Excel - Learn MS EXCEL For DATA Analysis https://www.udemy.com/course/microsoft-excel-learn-ms-excel-for-data-analysis/?couponCode=A65463AFE287D36FA249 2 Days left at this price!
17. 2h 59m Complete SQL Bootcamp with MySQL, PHP & Python https://www.udemy.com/course/complete-sql-bootcamp-with-mysql-php-python/?couponCode=SQLBOOTCAMPAUG2020 2 Days left at this price!
18. 1h 13m eCommerce Marketing Certification https://www.udemy.com/course/ecommerce-marketing-certification/?couponCode=TIMEFORCHANGE 2 Days left at this price!
19. 8h 24m Business Intelligence: Python and Programming Essentials. https://www.udemy.com/course/python-banking-oriented/?couponCode=9B7E6EE36C2057A39C38 2 Days left at this price!
20. 1h 14m Public Speaking: Be a Professional Speaker https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-be-a-professional-speake?couponCode=BAF587315DB625ED174C 2 Days left at this price!
21. 4h 7m The Complete Law Of Attraction Course Updated for the 2020s https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-law-of-attraction-course-updated-for-the-2020s/?couponCode=312A7646ACF38E7469A5 2 Days left at this price!
22. 6h 16m The Complete Resilience Course - Master Emotional Resiliency https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-resilience-course-master-emotional-resiliency/?couponCode=0F96982CB58EF4F40A16 2 Days left at this price!
23. 1h 12m COVID19 Begin Budget Bread Baking Sustainability Activities https://www.udemy.com/course/bake-a-fuss-free-bread/
24. 0h 56m Learning Yoga made Easy https://www.udemy.com/course/learning-yoga-made-easy/
25. 53h 42m Managerial Accounting / Cost Accounting https://www.udemy.com/course/managerial-accounting-cost-accounting/?couponCode=D0401E00E270B8BEC6F5 1 Day left at this price!
26. 5h 5m Build an Amazon Affiliate E-Commerce Store from Scratch https://youaccel.com/admin/cdisplay.php?cid=889085&tsrc=225691&promocc=yes&promocode=FREEBIESGLOBAL
27. 7h 59m Process Costing System-Cost Accounting-Managerial Accounting https://www.udemy.com/course/process-costing-system-cost-accounting-managerial-accounting/?couponCode=08EE37E4BDF3C9307BE5 1 Day left at this price!
28. 8h 40m Master Budgets – Managerial Accounting/Cost Accounting https://www.udemy.com/course/master-budgets-managerial-accountingcost-accounting/?couponCode=953488B11FC50E4DAFBC 1 Day left at this price!
29. 17h 0m QuickBooks Online Vs Xero Not for Profit Organization https://www.udemy.com/course/quickbooks-online-vs-xero-not-for-profit-organization/?couponCode=BD3204114EECA09169FE 1 Day left at this price!
30. 9h 16m Start Making Passive Income Online: The Complete Bundle https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-make-money-passive-income-online-bundle-find-job-money/?couponCode=STAYHOMENEW822020 1 Day left at this price!
31. 1h 0m Best Techniques to Drive Traffic to Your Website https://www.udemy.com/course/traffic-website-best-techniques-to-drive-traffic-to-your-website/?couponCode=STAYHOMENEW822020 1 Day left at this price!
32. 0h 39m The FREE Photoshop: Turn GIMP Into Photoshop in No Time https://www.udemy.com/course/get-free-photoshop-master-photo-editing-with-gimp/?couponCode=STAYHOMENEW822020 1 Day left at this price!
33. 0h 41m How to Make Passive Income without experience or a Website https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-make-passive-income-without-experience-or-a-website/?couponCode=STAYHOMENEW822020 1 Day left at this price!
34. 0h 43m How To Start A T-Shirt Business Online https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-start-a-t-shirt-business-online/?couponCode=STAYHOMENEW822020 1 Day left at this price!
35. 0h 39m How to Make Passive Income with Facebook Videos https://www.udemy.com/course/facebook-video-ad-break-how-to-make-passive-income-with-facebookvideo/?couponCode=STAYHOMENEW822020 1 Day left at this price!
36. 2h 11m Affiliate Marketing A Set and Forget Passive Income Method https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-make-money-using-flight-booking-and-hotel-affiliation/?couponCode=STAYHOMENEW822020 1 Day left at this price!
37. 0h 38m Yoast SEO: Write a SEO Optimized Articles in 10 Minutes https://www.udemy.com/course/write-seo-optimized-articles-that-rank1st-in-search-engine/?couponCode=STAYHOMENEW822020 1 Day left at this price!
38. 1h 4m WordPress: Make A Professional Website With No Coding https://www.udemy.com/course/wordpress-make-a-professional-website-with-no-coding/?couponCode=STAYHOMENEW822020 1 Day left at this price!
39. 1h 10m Fire, Water, Wind, Earth and Spirit in Yoga https://www.udemy.com/course/yoga-character-growth/?couponCode=EXP0823 2 Days left at this price!
40. 5h 24m Adobe Premiere Pro CC 2020: Video Editing for Beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/premiere-pro-with-brad-newton/?couponCode=AUGUST_LEARN_EDITING 2 Days left at this price!
41. 10h 15m Cost Volume Profit Analysis (CVP) – Managerial Accounting https://www.udemy.com/course/cost-volume-profit-analysis-cvp-managerial-accounting/?couponCode=A8CB00370E85F360CBEA 1 Day left at this price!
42. 2h 57m English Writing Basics: Learn to Write Sentences in English https://www.udemy.com/course/english-writing-basics-learn-to-write-sentences-in-english-j/?couponCode=3DAYDIC-DUETO1DAY 2 Days left at this price!
43. 3h 9m Effektive Geschäftsführung und Unternehmer Mindset lernen https://www.udemy.com/course/unternehmer-mindest/?couponCode=5F1E6CCA0AB10C5986BD 2 Days left at this price!
44. 55 questions Certified CIW JavaScript Developer Specialist For 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/certified-ciw-javascript-developer-specialist-for-2018/?couponCode=8F0336355659214F499A 2 Days left at this price!
45. 120 questions Certified CIW Web Developer Specialist Practice Tests 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/certified-ciw-web-developer-specialist-practice-tests-2018/?couponCode=F15D80E71CB984659052 2 Days left at this price!
46. 0h 45m Learn Cinema 4D: Low Poly Tree https://www.udemy.com/course/low-poly-art-create-an-abstract-tree/?couponCode=632AA867C95BC52C77D4 2 Days left at this price!
47. 1h 25m Learn Deferred Taxes through Case Studies https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-deferred-taxes-through-case-studies/?couponCode=AUGFRC 1 Day left at this price!
48. 0h 59m Let's Break Stuff: Coding for Beginners with HTML5 and CSS3 https://www.udemy.com/course/lets-break-stuff-coding-for-beginners-with-html5-and-css3/
49. 2h 24m Adobe After Effects CC 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/adobe-after-effects-cc-2020/?couponCode=TRY10FREE94 1 Day left at this price!
50. 0h 34m How to build a multi-vendor eCommerce website https://www.udemy.com/course/build-multivendor-ecommerce-website/
51. 2h 7m Adobe Premiere Pro CC 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/adobe-premiere-pro-cc-2020/?couponCode=TRY10FREE94 1 Day left at this price!
52. 0h 41m Essential Fire Safety Training https://www.udemy.com/course/basic-fire-safety-at-home-work/
53. 3h 24m Learn Visual Studio Code https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-visual-studio-code-v/?couponCode=TRY10FREE94 1 Day left at this price!
54. 1h 54m Sales Funnel Masterclass : Increase Sales with Sales Funnel https://www.udemy.com/course/sales-funnel-masterclass-increase-sales-with-sales-funnel/
55. 1h 18m Adobe Creative Cloud 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/adobe-creative-cloud-master-course/?couponCode=TRY10FREE94 1 Day left at this price!
56. 1h 57m Kajabi™ Crash Course | How To Sell Online Courses https://www.udemy.com/course/kajabi-crash-course-how-to-sell-online-courses/
57. 0h 35m RoboAuthor: Content Writing Automation 2020 - Part 1 https://www.udemy.com/course/roboauthor-content-writing-automation-2019-part-1/?couponCode=FIRSTTRY 1 Day left at this price!
58. 1h 16m Microsoft OneDrive 2020 - For Beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-microsoft-onedrive/?couponCode=0F44F1576070F8C0EBA9 2 Days left at this price!
59. 5h 31m The Complete Bootstrap 5 Course for Beginners (Step by Step) https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-bootstrap-5-course-for-beginners-step-by-step/?couponCode=BC53DOFF 1 Day left at this price!
60. 15h 14m Ultimate Excel Training Course - Intro to Advanced Pro https://www.udemy.com/course/ultimate-excel-training-course-intro-to-advanced-pro/?couponCode=CRUSHEXCEL 1 Day left at this price!
61. 10h 33m Stock Trading Momentum Based Strategies - Technical Analysis https://www.udemy.com/course/momentum-indicators-rsi-stoch-williamr-tsi-mfi/?couponCode=2AUG20 1 Day left at this price!
62. 1h 9m Ultimate Microsoft Word (بالعربية Word كورس) https://www.udemy.com/course/microsoft-word-2019-in-arabic/?couponCode=MOOCY.ME 1 Day left at this price!
63. 1h 11m Ultimate Microsoft Excel 2019 (بالعربية Excel كورس) https://www.udemy.com/course/microsoft-excel-2019-in-arabic/?couponCode=MOOCY.ME 1 Day left at this price!
64. 0h 34m How to Build Pro LinkedIn Profile- بناء حساب إحترافي لينكدين https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-build-pro-linkedin-profile/?couponCode=MOOCY.ME 1 Day left at this price!
65. 2h 44m The complete forex course from scratch to professional https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-forex-course-from-scratch-to-professional/?couponCode=54B05F9163BF9BB80222 1 Day left at this price!
66. 3h 59m LumaFusion Guide - LumaFusion 2.2+ for Complete Beginners V2 https://www.udemy.com/course/ultimate-guide-to-lumafusion-2-for-complete-beginners/?couponCode=96000912A312AA7A3D0A 1 Day left at this price!
67. 11h 17m Practical Web Development: 22 Courses in 1 https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-web-development-course/?couponCode=PRACTICALWEBAUG2020 1 Day left at this price!
68. 10h 53m AWS Services for Solutions Architect Associates https://www.udemy.com/course/aws-services-for-solutions-architect-associates-course/?couponCode=AUG2020FREE 2 Day left at this price!
69. 7h 57m Python for Beginners – Basics to Advanced https://www.udemy.com/course/python-programming-beginner-to-advanced/?couponCode=AUG2020FREE 2 Day left at this price!
70. 1h 49m DevOps Fundamentals https://www.udemy.com/course/devops-fundamentals-for-beginners/?couponCode=AUG2020FREE 2 Day left at this price!
71. 9h 59m Step by Step Guide for Javascript - Basics to Advanced https://www.udemy.com/course/javascript-basics-to-advanced/?couponCode=AUG2020FREE 2 Day left at this price!

Best Seller Discounted Courses

1. 23h 44m $9.99 AWS Certified DevOps Engineer: Get 3 Certifications 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/aws-certified-devops-engineer-get-3-certifications/?couponCode=SEEKAWSCERT
2. 41h 29m $9.99 SUPERCHARGE your Facebook Marketing & Facebook Ads in 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/facebook-marketing-strategy-facebook-training/?couponCode=AUG999
3. 29h 15m $10.99 Complete Presentation Skills Masterclass for Every Occasion https://www.udemy.com/course/complete-presentation-skills-masterclass-for-every-occasion/?couponCode=THANKS
4. 31h 15m $10.99 Soft Skills: The 11 Essential Career Soft Skills $11.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/soft-skills-the-11-essential-career-soft-skills/?couponCode=D7E3D07A6C92ACEF1280
5. 31 Hours The Agile Methodology for Project Risk Managers $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/the-agile-methodology-for-project-risk-managers/?couponCode=AGILE9
6. 8 Hours Effective Problem-solving and Decision-making under Pressure $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/effective-problem-solving-and-decision-making-under-pressure/?couponCode=SOLVE9

Best Selling Eduonix 8 E-Degrees:

1. $32.50 DevOps E-degree
2. $32.50 Fullstack JavaScript Developer E-Degree
3. $34 Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning E-Degree
4. $34 MERN Stack Developer E-Degree Program
5. $37.50 Advance Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning E-Degree
6. $39 IoT E-degree – The Novice to Expert Program in IOT
7. $42.50 Cybersecurity E-Degree
8. $45 Cloud Computing E-Degree

Among the most popular forms of trading, suitable to all levels of experience, is to learn how to balance trade.
The idea behind swing trading would be to identify a market swing low and change it to a market swing high.
And if you're able to get in early enough by swinging high or swinging low, there's a fair chance you 're going to make a reasonable profit.
Since swing trading is not just a well-established type of trading.
Swing trade definition: is a trading style aimed at catching market reversals, targeting small to medium-term market losses over a restricted duration of two weeks.
Swing traders rely primarily on technical analysis to identify opportunities.
SWING TRADING VS DAY TRADING
There may be a fine line between swing trading and day trading.
Thanks to the nature of swing trading looking at swing highs and swing lows, swing traders are more likely to see them during the day.
The key difference between a swing trader and a day trader is usually based on the system used.
Whereas, a day trader may use a variety of technical indicators such as the moving average or the Bollinger bands to generate business ideas.
Compare the two trading styles: Swing trading is always a lot more relaxed, and their charts are much smoother and easier, and they tend to follow the trend.
Is SWING TRADING PROFITABLE?
All forms of trade are profitable.
Swing traders have a greater chance of making profits because of the inherent risk-reward that comes with seeking swing trading.
Thanks to swing trading, it is not uncommon for most swing traders to settle for a one to three risk-to - reward ratio.
At a beginner's point of view, it is more than possible to be profitable by swing trading: it will take time to take risks Many losses can take place, but this is all part and parcel of the usual cycle of being a good forex trader.
If you want to learn more about swing trading, then click the link below:
https://www.alphaexcapital.com/swing-trading/

​
https://preview.redd.it/gp18bjnlabr41.jpg?width=768&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6054e7f52e8d52da403016139ae43e0e799abf15
Download PDF of this article here: https://docdro.id/6eLgUPo
In light of the recent fall in oil prices due to the Saudi-Russian dispute and dampening demand for oil due to the lockdowns implemented globally, O&G stocks have taken a severe beating, falling approximately 50% from their highs at the beginning of the year. Not spared from this onslaught is Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (Hibiscus), a listed oil and gas (O&G) exploration and production (E&P) company.
Why invest in O&G stocks in this particularly uncertain period? For one, valuations of these stocks have fallen to multi-year lows, bringing the potential ROI on these stocks to attractive levels. Oil prices are cyclical, and are bound to return to the mean given a sufficiently long time horizon. The trick is to find those companies who can survive through this downturn and emerge into “normal” profitability once oil prices rebound.
In this article, I will explore the upsides and downsides of investing in Hibiscus. I will do my best to cater this report to newcomers to the O&G industry – rather than address exclusively experts and veterans of the O&G sector. As an equity analyst, I aim to provide a view on the company primarily, and will generally refrain from providing macro views on oil or opinions about secular trends of the sector. I hope you enjoy reading it!
Stock code: 5199.KL
Stock name: Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad
Financial information and financial reports: https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5199
Company website: https://www.hibiscuspetroleum.com/
​

Company Snapshot

Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL) is an oil and gas (O&G) upstream exploration and production (E&P) company located in Malaysia. As an E&P company, their business can be basically described as:
· looking for oil,
· drawing it out of the ground, and
· selling it on global oil markets.
This means Hibiscus’s profits are particularly exposed to fluctuating oil prices. With oil prices falling to sub-$30 from about $60 at the beginning of the year, Hibiscus’s stock price has also fallen by about 50% YTD – from around RM 1.00 to RM 0.45 (as of 5 April 2020).
https://preview.redd.it/3dqc4jraabr41.png?width=641&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ba0e8614c4e9d781edfc670016a874b90560684
https://preview.redd.it/lvdkrf0cabr41.png?width=356&format=png&auto=webp&s=46f250a713887b06986932fa475dc59c7c28582e
While the company is domiciled in Malaysia, its two main oil producing fields are located in both Malaysia and the UK. The Malaysian oil field is commonly referred to as the North Sabah field, while the UK oil field is commonly referred to as the Anasuria oil field. Hibiscus has licenses to other oil fields in different parts of the world, notably the Marigold/Sunflower oil fields in the UK and the VIC cluster in Australia, but its revenues and profits mainly stem from the former two oil producing fields.
Given that it’s a small player and has only two primary producing oil fields, it’s not surprising that Hibiscus sells its oil to a concentrated pool of customers, with 2 of them representing 80% of its revenues (i.e. Petronas and BP). Fortunately, both these customers are oil supermajors, and are unlikely to default on their obligations despite low oil prices.
At RM 0.45 per share, the market capitalization is RM 714.7m and it has a trailing PE ratio of about 5x. It doesn’t carry any debt, and it hasn’t paid a dividend in its listing history. The MD, Mr. Kenneth Gerard Pereira, owns about 10% of the company’s outstanding shares.
​

Reserves (Total recoverable oil) & Production (bbl/day)

To begin analyzing the company, it’s necessary to understand a little of the industry jargon. We’ll start with Reserves and Production.
In general, there are three types of categories for a company’s recoverable oil volumes – Reserves, Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources. Reserves are those oil fields which are “commercial”, which is defined as below:
^{As defined by the SPE PRMS, Reserves are “… quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable by application of development projects to known accumulations from a given date forward under defined conditions.” Therefore, Reserves must be discovered (by drilling}, recoverable (with current technology), remaining in the subsurface (at the effective date of the evaluation) and “commercial” based on the development project proposed.)
^{Note that Reserves are associated with development projects. To be considered as “commercial”, there must be a firm intention to proceed with the project in a reasonable time frame (typically 5 years}, and such intention must be based upon all of the following criteria:)
^{- A reasonable assessment of the future economics of the development project meeting defined investment and operating criteria; - A reasonable expectation that there will be a market for all or at least the expected sales quantities of production required to justify development; - Evidence that the necessary production and transportation facilities are available or can be made available; and - Evidence that legal, contractual, environmental and other social and economic concerns will allow for the actual implementation of the recovery project being evaluated.}
Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources are further defined as below:
^{- Contingent Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets discovered volumes but is not (yet} commercial (as defined above); and) ^{- Prospective Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets as yet undiscovered volumes.}
In the industry lingo, we generally refer to Reserves as ‘P’ and Contingent Resources as ‘C’. These ‘P’ and ‘C’ resources can be further categorized into 1P/2P/3P resources and 1C/2C/3C resources, each referring to a low/medium/high estimate of the company’s potential recoverable oil volumes:
^{- Low/1C/1P estimate: there should be reasonable certainty that volumes actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimate; - Best/2C/2P estimate: there should be an equal likelihood of the actual volumes of petroleum being larger or smaller than the estimate; and - High/3C/3P estimate: there is a low probability that the estimate will be exceeded.}
Hence in the E&P industry, it is easy to see why most investors and analysts refer to the 2P estimate as the best estimate for a company’s actual recoverable oil volumes. This is because 2P reserves (‘2P’ referring to ‘Proved and Probable’) are a middle estimate of the recoverable oil volumes legally recognized as “commercial”.
However, there’s nothing stopping you from including 2C resources (riskier) or utilizing 1P resources (conservative) as your estimate for total recoverable oil volumes, depending on your risk appetite. In this instance, the company has provided a snapshot of its 2P and 2C resources in its analyst presentation:
https://preview.redd.it/o8qejdyc8br41.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3ab9be8f83badf0206adc982feda3a558d43e78
Basically, what the company is saying here is that by 2021, it will have classified as 2P reserves at least 23.7 million bbl from its Anasuria field and 20.5 million bbl from its North Sabah field – for total 2P reserves of 44.2 million bbl (we are ignoring the Australian VIC cluster as it is only estimated to reach first oil by 2022).
Furthermore, the company is stating that they have discovered (but not yet legally classified as “commercial”) a further 71 million bbl of oil from both the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, as well as the Marigold/Sunflower fields. If we include these 2C resources, the total potential recoverable oil volumes could exceed 100 million bbl.
In this report, we shall explore all valuation scenarios giving consideration to both 2P and 2C resources.
https://preview.redd.it/gk54qplf8br41.png?width=489&format=png&auto=webp&s=c905b7a6328432218b5b9dfd53cc9ef1390bd604
The company further targets a 2021 production rate of 20,000 bbl (LTM: 8,000 bbl), which includes 5,000 bbl from its Anasuria field (LTM: 2,500 bbl) and 7,000 bbl from its North Sabah field (LTM: 5,300 bbl).
This is a substantial increase in forecasted production from both existing and prospective oil fields. If it materializes, annual production rate could be as high as 7,300 mmbbl, and 2021 revenues (given FY20 USD/bbl of $60) could exceed RM 1.5 billion (FY20: RM 988 million).
However, this targeted forecast is quite a stretch from current production levels. Nevertheless, we shall consider all provided information in estimating a valuation for Hibiscus.
To understand Hibiscus’s oil production capacity and forecast its revenues and profits, we need to have a better appreciation of the performance of its two main cash-generating assets – the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field.
​
North Sabah oil field
https://preview.redd.it/62nssexj8br41.png?width=1003&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd78f86d51165fb9a93015e49496f7f98dad64dd
Hibiscus owns a 50% interest in the North Sabah field together with its partner Petronas, and has production rights over the field up to year 2040. The asset contains 4 oil fields, namely the St Joseph field, South Furious field, SF 30 field and Barton field.
For the sake of brevity, we shall not delve deep into the operational aspects of the fields or the contractual nature of its production sharing contract (PSC). We’ll just focus on the factors which relate to its financial performance. These are:
· Average uptime
· Total oil sold
· Average realized oil price
· Average OPEX per bbl
With regards to average uptime, we can see that the company maintains relative high facility availability, exceeding 90% uptime in all quarters of the LTM with exception of Jul-Sep 2019. The dip in average uptime was due to production enhancement projects and maintenance activities undertaken to improve the production capacity of the St Joseph and SF30 oil fields.
Hence, we can conclude that management has a good handle on operational performance. It also implies that there is little room for further improvement in production resulting from increased uptime.
As North Sabah is under a production sharing contract (PSC), there is a distinction between gross oil production and net oil production. The former relates to total oil drawn out of the ground, whereas the latter refers to Hibiscus’s share of oil production after taxes, royalties and expenses are accounted for. In this case, we want to pay attention to net oil production, not gross.
We can arrive at Hibiscus’s total oil sold for the last twelve months (LTM) by adding up the total oil sold for each of the last 4 quarters. Summing up the figures yields total oil sold for the LTM of approximately 2,075,305 bbl.
Then, we can arrive at an average realized oil price over the LTM by averaging the average realized oil price for the last 4 quarters, giving us an average realized oil price over the LTM of USD 68.57/bbl. We can do the same for average OPEX per bbl, giving us an average OPEX per bbl over the LTM of USD 13.23/bbl.
Thus, we can sum up the above financial performance of the North Sabah field with the following figures:
· Total oil sold: 2,075,305 bbl
· Average realized oil price: USD 68.57/bbl
· Average OPEX per bbl: USD 13.23/bbl
​
Anasuria oil field
https://preview.redd.it/586u4kfo8br41.png?width=1038&format=png&auto=webp&s=7580fc7f7df7e948754d025745a5cf47d4393c0f
Doing the same exercise as above for the Anasuria field, we arrive at the following financial performance for the Anasuria field:
· Total oil sold: 1,073,304 bbl
· Average realized oil price: USD 63.57/bbl
· Average OPEX per bbl: USD 23.22/bbl
As gas production is relatively immaterial, and to be conservative, we shall only consider the crude oil production from the Anasuria field in forecasting revenues.
​

Valuation (Method 1)

Putting the figures from both oil fields together, we get the following data:
https://preview.redd.it/7y6064dq8br41.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a4120563a011cf61fc6090e1cd5932602599dc2
Given that we have determined LTM EBITDA of RM 632m, the next step would be to subtract ITDA (interest, tax, depreciation & amortization) from it to obtain estimated LTM Net Profit. Using FY2020’s ITDA of approximately RM 318m as a guideline, we arrive at an estimated LTM Net Profit of RM 314m (FY20: 230m). Given the current market capitalization of RM 714.7m, this implies a trailing LTM PE of 2.3x.
Performing a sensitivity analysis given different oil prices, we arrive at the following net profit table for the company under different oil price scenarios, assuming oil production rate and ITDA remain constant:
https://preview.redd.it/xixge5sr8br41.png?width=433&format=png&auto=webp&s=288a00f6e5088d01936f0217ae7798d2cfcf11f2
From the above exercise, it becomes apparent that Hibiscus has a breakeven oil price of about USD 41.8863/bbl, and has a lot of operating leverage given the exponential rate of increase in its Net Profit with each consequent increase in oil prices.
Considering that the oil production rate (EBITDA) is likely to increase faster than ITDA’s proportion to revenues (fixed costs), at an implied PE of 4.33x, it seems likely that an investment in Hibiscus will be profitable over the next 10 years (with the assumption that oil prices will revert to the mean in the long-term).
​

Valuation (Method 2)

Of course, there are a lot of assumptions behind the above method of valuation. Hence, it would be prudent to perform multiple methods of valuation and compare the figures to one another.
As opposed to the profit/loss assessment in Valuation (Method 1), another way of performing a valuation would be to estimate its balance sheet value, i.e. total revenues from 2P Reserves, and assign a reasonable margin to it.
https://preview.redd.it/o2eiss6u8br41.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=03960cce698d9cedb076f3d5f571b3c59d908fa8
From the above, we understand that Hibiscus’s 2P reserves from the North Sabah and Anasuria fields alone are approximately 44.2 mmbbl (we ignore contribution from Australia’s VIC cluster as it hasn’t been developed yet).
Doing a similar sensitivity analysis of different oil prices as above, we arrive at the following estimated total revenues and accumulated net profit:
https://preview.redd.it/h8hubrmw8br41.png?width=450&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d23f0f9c3dafda89e758b815072ba335467f33e
Let’s assume that the above average of RM 9.68 billion in total realizable revenues from current 2P reserves holds true. If we assign a conservative Net Profit margin of 15% (FY20: 23%; past 5 years average: 16%), we arrive at estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion. Given the current market capitalization of RM 714 million, we might be able to say that the equity is worth about twice the current share price.
However, it is understandable that some readers might feel that the figures used in the above estimate (e.g. net profit margin of 15%) were randomly plucked from the sky. So how do we reconcile them with figures from the financial statements? Fortunately, there appears to be a way to do just that.
Intangible Assets
I refer you to a figure in the financial statements which provides a shortcut to the valuation of 2P Reserves. This is the carrying value of Intangible Assets on the Balance Sheet.
As of 2QFY21, that amount was RM 1,468,860,000 (i.e. RM 1.468 billion).
https://preview.redd.it/hse8ttb09br41.png?width=881&format=png&auto=webp&s=82e48b5961c905fe9273cb6346368de60202ebec
Quite coincidentally, one might observe that this figure is dangerously close to the estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion we calculated earlier. But why would this amount matter at all?
To answer that, I refer you to the notes of the Annual Report FY20 (AR20). On page 148 of the AR20, we find the following two paragraphs:
^{E&E assets comprise of rights and concession and conventional studies. Following the acquisition of a concession right to explore a licensed area, the costs incurred such as geological and geophysical surveys, drilling, commercial appraisal costs and other directly attributable costs of exploration and appraisal including technical and administrative costs, are capitalised as conventional studies, presented as intangible assets.
E&E assets are assessed for impairment when facts and circumstances suggest that the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount. The Group will allocate E&E assets to cash generating unit (“CGU”}s or groups of CGUs for the purpose of assessing such assets for impairment. Each CGU or group of units to which an E&E asset is allocated will not be larger than an operating segment as disclosed in Note 39 to the financial statements.)
Hence, we can determine that firstly, the intangible asset value represents capitalized costs of acquisition of the oil fields, including technical exploration costs and costs of acquiring the relevant licenses. Secondly, an impairment review will be carried out when “the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount”, with E&E assets being allocated to “cash generating units” (CGU) for the purposes of assessment.
On page 169 of the AR20, we find the following:
^{Carrying amounts of the Group’s intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO are reviewed for possible impairment annually including any indicators of impairment. For the purpose of assessing impairment, assets are grouped at the lowest level CGUs for which there is a separately identifiable cash flow available. These CGUs are based on operating areas, represented by the 2011 North Sabah EOR PSC (“North Sabah”}, the Anasuria Cluster, the Marigold and Sunflower fields, the VIC/P57 exploration permit (“VIC/P57”) and the VIC/L31 production license (“VIC/L31”).)
So apparently, the CGUs that have been assigned refer to the respective oil producing fields, two of which include the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field. In order to perform the impairment review, estimates of future cash flow will be made by management to assess the “recoverable amount” (as described above), subject to assumptions and an appropriate discount rate.
Hence, what we can gather up to now is that management will estimate future recoverable cash flows from a CGU (i.e. the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields), compare that to their carrying value, and perform an impairment if their future recoverable cash flows are less than their carrying value. In other words, if estimated accumulated profits from the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are less than their carrying value, an impairment is required.
So where do we find the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields? Further down on page 184 in the AR20, we see the following:
^{Included in rights and concession are the carrying amounts of producing field licenses in the Anasuria Cluster amounting to RM668,211,518 (2018: RM687,664,530}, producing field licenses in North Sabah amounting to RM471,031,008 (2018: RM414,333,116))
Hence, we can determine that the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are RM 471m and RM 668m respectively. But where do we find the future recoverable cash flows of the fields as estimated by management, and what are the assumptions used in that calculation?
Fortunately, we find just that on page 185:
^{17 INTANGIBLE ASSETS (CONTINUED})
^(a Anasuria Cluster)
^{The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for Anasuria Cluster during the current financial year. In the previous financial year, due to uncertainties in crude oil prices, the Group has assessed the recoverable amount of the intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO relating to the Anasuria Cluster. The recoverable amount is determined using the FVLCTS model based on discounted cash flows (“DCF”} derived from the expected cash in/outflow pattern over the production lives.)
^{The key assumptions used to determine the recoverable amount for the Anasuria Cluster were as follows:
(i} Discount rate of 10%;)
⁽ⁱⁱ Future cost inflation factor of 2% per annum;)
⁽ⁱⁱⁱ Oil price forecast based on the oil price forward curve from independent parties; and,)
^(iv Oil production profile based on the assessment by independent oil and gas reserve experts.)
^{Based on the assessments performed, the Directors concluded that the recoverable amount calculated based on the valuation model is higher than the carrying amount.
(b} North Sabah)
^{The acquisition of the North Sabah assets was completed in the previous financial year. Details of the acquisition are as disclosed in Note 15 to the financial statements.
The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for North Sabah during the current financial year.}
Here, we can see that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field was estimated based on a DCF of expected future cash flows over the production life of the asset. The key assumptions used by management all seem appropriate, including a discount rate of 10% and oil price and oil production estimates based on independent assessment. From there, management concludes that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field is higher than its carrying amount (i.e. no impairment required). Likewise, for the North Sabah field.
How do we interpret this? Basically, what management is saying is that given a 10% discount rate and independent oil price and oil production estimates, the accumulated profits (i.e. recoverable amount) from both the North Sabah and the Anasuria fields exceed their carrying amounts of RM 471m and RM 668m respectively.
In other words, according to management’s own estimates, the carrying value of the Intangible Assets of RM 1.468 billion approximates the accumulated Net Profit recoverable from 2P reserves.
To conclude Valuation (Method 2), we arrive at the following:
​

	Our estimates	Management estimates
Accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves	RM 1.452 billion	RM 1.468 billion

​

Financials

By now, we have established the basic economics of Hibiscus’s business, including its revenues (i.e. oil production and oil price scenarios), costs (OPEX, ITDA), profitability (breakeven, future earnings potential) and balance sheet value (2P reserves, valuation). Moving on, we want to gain a deeper understanding of the 3 statements to anticipate any blind spots and risks. We’ll refer to the financial statements of both the FY20 annual report and the 2Q21 quarterly report in this analysis.
For the sake of brevity, I’ll only point out those line items which need extra attention, and skip over the rest. Feel free to go through the financial statements on your own to gain a better familiarity of the business.
https://preview.redd.it/h689bss79br41.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed47fce6a5c3815dd3d4f819e31f1ce39ccf4a0b
Income Statement
First, we’ll start with the Income Statement on page 135 of the AR20. Revenues are straightforward, as we’ve discussed above. Cost of Sales and Administrative Expenses fall under the jurisdiction of OPEX, which we’ve also seen earlier. Other Expenses are mostly made up of Depreciation & Amortization of RM 115m.
Finance Costs are where things start to get tricky. Why does a company which carries no debt have such huge amounts of finance costs? The reason can be found in Note 8, where it is revealed that the bulk of finance costs relate to the unwinding of discount of provision for decommissioning costs of RM 25m (Note 32).
https://preview.redd.it/4omjptbe9br41.png?width=1019&format=png&auto=webp&s=eaabfc824134063100afa62edfd36a34a680fb60
This actually refers to the expected future costs of restoring the Anasuria and North Sabah fields to their original condition once the oil reserves have been depleted. Accounting standards require the company to provide for these decommissioning costs as they are estimable and probable. The way the decommissioning costs are accounted for is the same as an amortized loan, where the initial carrying value is recognized as a liability and the discount rate applied is reversed each year as an expense on the Income Statement. However, these expenses are largely non-cash in nature and do not necessitate a cash outflow every year (FY20: RM 69m).
Unwinding of discount on non-current other payables of RM 12m relate to contractual payments to the North Sabah sellers. We will discuss it later.
Taxation is another tricky subject, and is even more significant than Finance Costs at RM 161m. In gist, Hibiscus is subject to the 38% PITA (Petroleum Income Tax Act) under Malaysian jurisdiction, and the 30% Petroleum tax + 10% Supplementary tax under UK jurisdiction. Of the RM 161m, RM 41m of it relates to deferred tax which originates from the difference between tax treatment and accounting treatment on capitalized assets (accelerated depreciation vs straight-line depreciation). Nonetheless, what you should take away from this is that the tax expense is a tangible expense and material to breakeven analysis.
Fortunately, tax is a variable expense, and should not materially impact the cash flow of Hibiscus in today’s low oil price environment.
Note: Cash outflows for Tax Paid in FY20 was RM 97m, substantially below the RM 161m tax expense.
https://preview.redd.it/1xrnwzm89br41.png?width=732&format=png&auto=webp&s=c078bc3e18d9c79d9a6fbe1187803612753f69d8
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Hibiscus is unexciting; I’ll just bring your attention to those line items which need additional scrutiny. I’ll use the figures in the latest 2Q21 quarterly report (2Q21) and refer to the notes in AR20 for clarity.
We’ve already discussed Intangible Assets in the section above, so I won’t dwell on it again.
Moving on, the company has Equipment of RM 582m, largely relating to O&G assets (e.g. the Anasuria FPSO vessel and CAPEX incurred on production enhancement projects). Restricted cash and bank balances represent contractual obligations for decommissioning costs of the Anasuria Cluster, and are inaccessible for use in operations.
Inventories are relatively low, despite Hibiscus being an E&P company, so forex fluctuations on carrying value of inventories are relatively immaterial. Trade receivables largely relate to entitlements from Petronas and BP (both oil supermajors), and are hence quite safe from impairment. Other receivables, deposits and prepayments are significant as they relate to security deposits placed with sellers of the oil fields acquired; these should be ignored for cash flow purposes.
^{Note: Total cash and bank balances do not include approximately RM 105 m proceeds from the North Sabah December 2019 offtake (which was received in January 2020})
Cash and bank balances of RM 90m do not include RM 105m of proceeds from offtake received in 3Q21 (Jan 2020). Hence, the actual cash and bank balances as of 2Q21 approximate RM 200m.
Liabilities are a little more interesting. First, I’ll draw your attention to the significant Deferred tax liabilities of RM 457m. These largely relate to the amortization of CAPEX (i.e. Equipment and capitalized E&E expenses), which is given an accelerated depreciation treatment for tax purposes.
The way this works is that the government gives Hibiscus a favorable tax treatment on capital expenditures incurred via an accelerated depreciation schedule, so that the taxable income is less than usual. However, this leads to the taxable depreciation being utilized quicker than accounting depreciation, hence the tax payable merely deferred to a later period – when the tax depreciation runs out but accounting depreciation remains. Given the capital intensive nature of the business, it is understandable why Deferred tax liabilities are so large.
We’ve discussed Provision for decommissioning costs under the Finance Costs section earlier. They are also quite significant at RM 266m.
Notably, the Other Payables and Accruals are a hefty RM 431m. What do they relate to? Basically, they are contractual obligations to the sellers of the oil fields which are only payable upon oil prices reaching certain thresholds. Hence, while they are current in nature, they will only become payable when oil prices recover to previous highs, and are hence not an immediate cash outflow concern given today’s low oil prices.
Cash Flow Statement
There is nothing in the cash flow statement which warrants concern.
Notably, the company generated OCF of approximately RM 500m in FY20 and RM 116m in 2Q21. It further incurred RM 330m and RM 234m of CAPEX in FY20 and 2Q21 respectively, largely owing to production enhancement projects to increase the production rate of the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, which according to management estimates are accretive to ROI.
Tax paid was RM 97m in FY20 and RM 61m in 2Q21 (tax expense: RM 161m and RM 62m respectively).
​

Risks

There are a few obvious and not-so-obvious risks that one should be aware of before investing in Hibiscus. We shall not consider operational risks (e.g. uptime, OPEX) as they are outside the jurisdiction of the equity analyst. Instead, we shall focus on the financial and strategic risks largely outside the control of management. The main ones are:
· Oil prices remaining subdued for long periods of time
· Fluctuation of exchange rates
· Customer concentration risk
· 2P Reserves being less than estimated
· Significant current and non-current liabilities
· Potential issuance of equity
Oil prices remaining subdued
Of topmost concern in the minds of most analysts is whether Hibiscus has the wherewithal to sustain itself through this period of low oil prices (sub-$30). A quick and dirty estimate of annual cash outflow (i.e. burn rate) assuming a $20 oil world and historical production rates is between RM 50m-70m per year, which considering the RM 200m cash balance implies about 3-4 years of sustainability before the company runs out of cash and has to rely on external assistance for financing.
Table 1: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and exchange rates
https://preview.redd.it/gxnekd6h9br41.png?width=670&format=png&auto=webp&s=edbfb9621a43480d11e3b49de79f61a6337b3d51
The above table shows different EBITDA scenarios (RM ‘m) given different oil prices (left column) and USD:MYR exchange rates (top row). Currently, oil prices are $27 and USD:MYR is 1:4.36.
Given conservative assumptions of average OPEX/bbl of $20 (current: $15), we can safely say that the company will be loss-making as long as oil remains at $20 or below (red). However, we can see that once oil prices hit $25, the company can tank the lower-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 50m (orange), while at RM $27 it can sufficiently muddle through the higher-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 70m (green).
Hence, we can assume that as long as the average oil price over the next 3-4 years remains above $25, Hibiscus should come out of this fine without the need for any external financing.
Customer Concentration Risk
With regards to customer concentration risk, there is not much the analyst or investor can do except to accept the risk. Fortunately, 80% of revenues can be attributed to two oil supermajors (Petronas and BP), hence the risk of default on contractual obligations and trade receivables seems to be quite diminished.
2P Reserves being less than estimated
2P Reserves being less than estimated is another risk that one should keep in mind. Fortunately, the current market cap is merely RM 714m – at half of estimated recoverable amounts of RM 1.468 billion – so there’s a decent margin of safety. In addition, there are other mitigating factors which shall be discussed in the next section (‘Opportunities’).
Significant non-current and current liabilities
The significant non-current and current liabilities have been addressed in the previous section. It has been determined that they pose no threat to immediate cash flow due to them being long-term in nature (e.g. decommissioning costs, deferred tax, etc). Hence, for the purpose of assessing going concern, their amounts should not be a cause for concern.
Potential issuance of equity
Finally, we come to the possibility of external financing being required in this low oil price environment. While the company should last 3-4 years on existing cash reserves, there is always the risk of other black swan events materializing (e.g. coronavirus) or simply oil prices remaining muted for longer than 4 years.
Furthermore, management has hinted that they wish to acquire new oil assets at presently depressed prices to increase daily production rate to a targeted 20,000 bbl by end-2021. They have room to acquire debt, but they may also wish to issue equity for this purpose. Hence, the possibility of dilution to existing shareholders cannot be entirely ruled out.
However, given management’s historical track record of prioritizing ROI and optimal capital allocation, and in consideration of the fact that the MD owns 10% of outstanding shares, there is some assurance that any potential acquisitions will be accretive to EPS and therefore valuations.
​

Opportunities

As with the existence of risk, the presence of material opportunities also looms over the company. Some of them are discussed below:
· Increased Daily Oil Production Rate
· Inclusion of 2C Resources
· Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating
Increased Daily Oil Production Rate
The first and most obvious opportunity is the potential for increased production rate. We’ve seen in the last quarter (2Q21) that the North Sabah field increased its daily production rate by approximately 20% as a result of production enhancement projects (infill drilling), lowering OPEX/bbl as a result. To vastly oversimplify, infill drilling is the process of maximizing well density by drilling in the spaces between existing wells to improve oil production.
The same improvements are being undertaken at the Anasuria field via infill drilling, subsea debottlenecking, water injection and sidetracking of existing wells. Without boring you with industry jargon, this basically means future production rate is likely to improve going forward.
By how much can the oil production rate be improved by? Management estimates in their analyst presentation that enhancements in the Anasuria field will be able to yield 5,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 2,500 bbl/day).
Similarly, improvements in the North Sabah field is expected to yield 7,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 5,300 bbl/day).
This implies a total 2021 expected daily production rate from the two fields alone of 12,000 bbl/day (current: 8,000 bbl/day). That’s a 50% increase in yields which we haven’t factored into our valuation yet.
Furthermore, we haven’t considered any production from existing 2C resources (e.g. Marigold/Sunflower) or any potential acquisitions which may occur in the future. By management estimates, this can potentially increase production by another 8,000 bbl/day, bringing total production to 20,000 bbl/day.
While this seems like a stretch of the imagination, it pays to keep them in mind when forecasting future revenues and valuations.
Just to play around with the numbers, I’ve come up with a sensitivity analysis of possible annual EBITDA at different oil prices and daily oil production rates:
Table 2: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and daily oil production rates
https://preview.redd.it/jnpfhr5n9br41.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=bbe4b512bc17f576d87529651140cc74cde3d159
The left column represents different oil prices while the top row represents different daily oil production rates.
The green column represents EBITDA at current daily production rate of 8,000 bbl/day; the orange column represents EBITDA at targeted daily production rate of 12,000 bbl/day; while the purple column represents EBITDA at maximum daily production rate of 20,000 bbl/day.
Even conservatively assuming increased estimated annual ITDA of RM 500m (FY20: RM 318m), and long-term average oil prices of $50 (FY20: $60), the estimated Net Profit and P/E ratio is potentially lucrative at daily oil production rates of 12,000 bbl/day and above.
2C Resources
Since we’re on the topic of improved daily oil production rate, it bears to pay in mind the relatively enormous potential from Hibiscus’s 2C Resources. North Sabah’s 2C Resources alone exceed 30 mmbbl; while those from the yet undiagnosed Marigold/Sunflower fields also reach 30 mmbbl. Altogether, 2C Resources exceed 70 mmbbl, which dwarfs the 44 mmbbl of 2P Reserves we have considered up to this point in our valuation estimates.
To refresh your memory, 2C Resources represents oil volumes which have been discovered but are not yet classified as “commercial”. This means that there is reasonable certainty of the oil being recoverable, as opposed to simply being in the very early stages of exploration. So, to be conservative, we will imagine that only 50% of 2C Resources are eligible for reclassification to 2P reserves, i.e. 35 mmbbl of oil.
https://preview.redd.it/mto11iz7abr41.png?width=375&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9028ab0816b3d3e25067447f2c70acd3ebfc41a
This additional 35 mmbbl of oil represents an 80% increase to existing 2P reserves. Assuming the daily oil production rate increases similarly by 80%, we will arrive at 14,400 bbl/day of oil production. According to Table 2 above, this would yield an EBITDA of roughly RM 630m assuming $50 oil.
Comparing that estimated EBITDA to FY20’s actual EBITDA:

	FY20	FY21 (incl. 2C)	Difference
Daily oil production (bbl/day)	8,626	14,400	+66%
Average oil price (USD/bbl)	$68.57	$50	-27%
Average OPEX/bbl (USD)	$16.64	$20	+20%
EBITDA (RM ‘m)	632	630	-

Hence, even conservatively assuming lower oil prices and higher OPEX/bbl (which should decrease in the presence of higher oil volumes) than last year, we get approximately the same EBITDA as FY20.
For the sake of completeness, let’s assume that Hibiscus issues twice the no. of existing shares over the next 10 years, effectively diluting shareholders by 50%. Even without accounting for the possibility of the acquisition of new oil fields, at the current market capitalization of RM 714m, the prospective P/E would be about 10x. Not too shabby.
Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating
Hibiscus shares have recently been hit by a one-two punch from oil prices cratering from $60 to $30, as a result of both the Saudi-Russian dispute and depressed demand for oil due to coronavirus. This has massively increased supply and at the same time hugely depressed demand for oil (due to the globally coordinated lockdowns being implemented).
Given a long enough timeframe, I fully expect OPEC+ to come to an agreement and the economic effects from the coronavirus to dissipate, allowing oil prices to rebound. As we equity investors are aware, oil prices are cyclical and are bound to recover over the next 10 years.
When it does, valuations of O&G stocks (including Hibiscus’s) are likely to improve as investors overshoot expectations and begin to forecast higher oil prices into perpetuity, as they always tend to do in good times. When that time arrives, Hibiscus’s valuations are likely to become overoptimistic as all O&G stocks tend to do during oil upcycles, resulting in valuations far exceeding reasonable estimates of future earnings. If you can hold the shares up until then, it’s likely you will make much more on your investment than what we’ve been estimating.

Conclusion

Wrapping up what we’ve discussed so far, we can conclude that Hibiscus’s market capitalization of RM 714m far undershoots reasonable estimates of fair value even under conservative assumptions of recoverable oil volumes and long-term average oil prices. As a value investor, I hesitate to assign a target share price, but it’s safe to say that this stock is worth at least RM 1.00 (current: RM 0.45). Risk is relatively contained and the upside far exceeds the downside. While I have no opinion on the short-term trajectory of oil prices, I can safely recommend this stock as a long-term Buy based on fundamental research.