With International Market Live (IML) you need to pay 200 a month for a program to "predict" foreign exchange and crypto. But the profit doesnt cover the cost and they tell you to get 2 people under you then it should cover it. I havent seen any post about it here so just want to spread the word.

List of unauthorized forex trading apps and websites - RBI

Friends, recently the Reserve Bank of India has released a list of 34 forex brokers; which has been declared illegal.

https://preview.redd.it/dc1l0ca388o91.jpg?width=637&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1a865302fede2fd22985b27c767481ecb4219204
Before releasing this list, RBI had done all checks regarding all transactions of all those forex brokers since February this year. Maybe this doesn't matter to you; Nevertheless, you should definitely check this list once.
So see if your forex broker is not on this list!
👉 Here's a full list of unauthorized forex trading apps and websites

Alpari
AnyFX
Ava Trade
Binomo
e Toro
Exness
Expert Option
FBS
FinFxPro
Forex.com
Forex4money
Foxorex
FTMO
FVP Trade
FXPrimus
FXStreet
FXCm
FxNice
FXTM
HotFores
ibell Markets
IC Markets
iFOREX
IG Markets
IQ Option
NTS Forex Trading
Octa FX
Olymp Trade
TD Ameritrade
TP Global FX
Trade Sight FX
Urban Forex
Xm
XTB

Thanks for Reading.
Please share your take on this.

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We need to establish some ground rules first. All currencies are only measured against other currencies. Typically, when you see a currency exchange rate quoted, it is quoted as a measured against the USD. For example take the following.

Currency Year-to-Date Change
The above table shows the changes in each of these currencies against the USD in 2022. The "/USD" implies a change against the USD. If media mentions change in a currency, it usually is implied to be against the USD.
Now, we have see across the board virtually all currencies falling against the dollar. Every piece of news media mentions the Indian Rupee, the Chinese Yuan, the Japanese Yen etc falling against the dollar but no one ever explains why.
Well the USD is the world reserve currency. Everyone likes to make the statement but no one explains what it really means. Per the IMF, 40% of the world's debt is issued in USD. Per the BIS, 88% of forex trades were between the U.S. dollar and another currency. Per the IMF again, 60% of known Central Bank reserves are in the USD.
Now, the economy of virtually every country is tied to that of every other country. That is to say we have a global synchronized economy. Gone are the days were a country provided for all its needs within its own borders. Countries are dependent on other countries, and these other countries are dependent on yet other countries. This means that if one country falls, they are all affected, of course to varying degrees depending on the level of inter-dependence. To illustrate this level of dependence, the World Bank currently has the % of imports per GDP globally at 28.1%.
So we have established two things. Countries globally are heavily dependent on the USD and also on each other to varying degrees. Now with all this USD dependence for trade, what would happen if the US Central Bank, the Federal Reserve suddenly started raising rates. Well, higher rates means less people are willing to borrow USD and less borrowers of USD means less USD in the global economy.Take a look at the graph below.

https://preview.redd.it/p53xaws50tr91.png?width=1273&format=png&auto=webp&s=3802011276db2a02a312fa56b15f69dc24325954
This graph shows real GDP, the total value of goods and services produces in a country adjusted for inflation. Basically, when we remove the effects of inflation, the trade in US economy has been faltering since the fourth quarter of 2021. This is coincidentally when the Federal Reserve started raising rates. Because the global economy is dependent of USD, as we established before, this chart of effective US trade is a good estimate for global trade.
So now the main question: why are we seeing currencies fall against the USD. You probably have an idea by now. It is because we are experiencing a US dollar shortage. Let me erase any doubt.

https://preview.redd.it/bsmzarq60tr91.png?width=906&format=png&auto=webp&s=daf25e4ab345cc1326110eb6e98438a04f5d0ec0

https://preview.redd.it/6n9nkde70tr91.png?width=949&format=png&auto=webp&s=556edc0b1ae21e6a8bc17c74889d757eb085a9eb
The thing is it is now all about interest rates. Above we see two graphs. There is one of US Treasury Supply and the other of Demand. Treasuries are essentially loans firms or individuals provide to the US government. You can think of US treasuries as futures dollars as you may lend the US government 1 million today and you will be paid back say 1.05 million in one year.
The charts show the demand for these future dollars or treasuries has shot up this year, while the issuance or supply of treasuries has gone down. Which can only mean that the price or value of dollars must go waayyy up. So other countries must now pay much more to get USD to be able to trade, and must run government deficits, that is borrow money, to do so which increases inflation and further decreases the currency's value relative to the USD.
The tl;dr is the world is experiencing a double whammy of a global USD dollar shortage that is hampering global trade and crushing the value of other currencies relative to the USD, as well as a shortage of US treasuries which feeds the same problem. Countries are printing more currency to pay for more expensive dollars which is further decreasing their currency's value. Such is the real power the US Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department holds.

A short intro to this post series
Hi All,
We're starting this post series that will focus on economics, policy, current affairs and politics to a certain extent from a data backed lens. The idea is to critically analyze, using relevant data, topics that citizens should ideally know and understand. The topics covered will be wide and varied.

The politics behind petrol
The price of petrol and diesel – Why is it so high?
The price of petrol and the price of diesel has been going steady like the VVS Laxman and Rahul Dravid partnership in the fabled Eden Garden test match; and just like that partnership, there does not seem to be any let up. Prices of fuel in India seem like an anomaly when compared to the prices in our neighbourhood. Its often makes for an interesting comparison article where people compare the prices of petrol across our neighbours and show how “costly” it is here.
While the price of petrol is always known to be high due to duties, it is very important to analyze why and what impact these duties have on the economy.
First, lets start off by analyzing and breaking down the price of petrol and where it goes. The table below shows the breakdown of taxes and duties for 1 litre of petrol in Delhi (oct 2021):

Split of petrol and diesel prices and its cess
As you can see, around 31% of the price of petrol goes to the central government while around 23% goes to the state government. This effectively means that around 54% - 60% of the cost of fuel goes to the government. So remember, the next time you fill a litre of petrol, you’re effectively giving 60% of the fuel price to the government as a tax.
An interesting aside to note here is that Fuel and Alcohol (consequently two cash cows for many a government) is interestingly out of the purview… likely because the GST rate stops at 28%... but that is an article for another day.
The history of pricing of petrol and diesel
Historically, India did not have a free market pricing for petrol and diesel. Petrol and diesel would be imported by the government and the government would set the price that would be payable by the citizens for using it. The advantage of this method of pricing lies in the fact that the government can choose to keep prices somewhat stable and protect the citizens from random shocks in prices that affected petrol prices during OPEC shutdowns (refer to the US petrol crisis in the mid 1960s). However, the disadvantage is that when prices continuously increase, the government will go into debt if they do not commensurately increase the price of petrol/diesel.
Backdrop in 2004 and economic impact of oil
The 2004 year ended with spiralling petrol prices due to supply related crunches. The price of crude, which was around $36 a barrel, skyrocketed to $57 a barrel. The price of oil kept increasing due to supply side constraints.
The problem with increasing oil for India meant a couple of things:

Increased cost of purchasing for the Indian government – Imagine a company charging 100 rs to a customer but buying the input goods at Rs. 120. – Refer to table 1
Flow of forex – India imports 99% of its energy from various countries. Any purchase of energy happens in USD. When there’s an increase in purchase, there’s an increase in demand for USD, which also ends up depreciating the rupee.
Rise in prices will increase input costs for production, which directly results in a higher amount of inflation
Which then depreciates the currency further in a very vicious cycle.

The curious case of the oil bonds
The government of India therefore decided to issue the infamous “Oil Bonds” in order to plug the gap between the total collections from citizens the additional gap. The issue? This is debt. And debt has to be repaid in the future.
The government effectively pushed the problem to the future generations for their current consumption. This was effectively mentioned by Dr. Manmohan Singh, the then PM in the quote:

“However, I would like the nation to remember that issuing bonds and loading deficits on oil companies is not a permanent solution to this problem. We are only passing on our burden to our children who will have to repay this debt” – Dr. Manmohan Singh 4th Jan 2008

What initially started off as a Rs. 9000 cr oil bond in 2005 swelled into a Rs. 1.4 lac crore problem for the government in 2014.
The total interest payments alone come to close to 1.3 lac crores since the year 2011 (see table below). The table below shows the amount of principal and interest payments that have been paid since 2011 and the expected settlement patterns of the loans.

Settlement patterns for oil bonds (E is marked by Expected settlement pattern)
*Table showing current and expected settlement of oil bonds
**Source – Union budget of India (receipts)
The last of the oil bonds will be settled in 2026.
Inputs != outputs
The idea of the oil bonds was simple. The government of India raises bonds for capital today (which was used to purchase oil and subsidize it for the citizens) in lieu of a payment of interest over the course of the tenure of the bond and eventual repayment of capital (not very dissimilar to a loan taken for paying your house).
Curiouser and curiouser still is the receipts from duties. One would expect the duties to add up to the interest + principal component of the loan. Think of duties here as the EMI that you pay to your house (it’s not an accurate comparison, but it’s late in the night and this is the best I could come up with). You take a 10 lac loan to buy a house at a 7% interest rate from a bank; you would ideally expect to pay only the principal + interest in the EMIs.
However, it’s very interesting to note that the duties and surcharges are in fact much, much higher than the actual bond itself. In fact, the duties and surcharges in the 2022-23 budget (which is receipts collected in 2020-21) is in fact greater than the actual principal + interest that is due.

Breakdown of tax revenue in a budget and the corresponding cess in petrol and diesel collected
Split of revenue and share of petrol and diesel cess
**Source – Union budget of India (receipts)

Graph of share of cess/duties in petrol and diesel to overall tax revenue
Graph showing the share of petrol and diesel cess to the overall tax revenue
One can easily infer from the table and graph on the events that have transpired:

Duties on fuel as a % of the total tax revenue have gone from an average 3% until 2017 to an average of around 8% since
The trend of duties has been increasing – This could be due to the fact that our consumption of oil has increased since 2010 (which attributes to economic growth)... So while the duties as a % of petrol price have not changed, we are consuming a lot more petrol, leading to absolute increases in duties collected

So effectively, while oil prices have been decreasing from the mammoth prices that we saw back in the early 2010s, the Indian populace has not had a chance to enjoy the falling oil prices. Oil prices (according to nasdaq’s website) have fallen from a price of $111 per barrel on 31/12/2011 to $42 on 31/12/2020.
The share of collections on petrol and diesel duties has been steadily increasing from 2014. One can clearly see a huge increase from the 2016-17 numbers and the 2017-18 numbers where the share of duties as a % of tax revenue has doubled. The share has reached a mammoth 13.43% of all tax revenues collected.
The cess that was initially supposed to cover only the interest and principal payments of the bonds that were floated has now morphed into a source of revenue for the government. What is very interesting to note is that the total cess collected as per the 2022-23 budget (which show the numbers collected in 2020-21) show that the absolute value of the cess (rs. 1.92 lac crores) is greater than the total principal + interest amount that is actually due (which is a little short of 1.37 lac crores). This is somewhat like your bank collecting the entire loan amount and then some in a single year.
What can be inferred from this
A couple of things really:

The cess on petrol is now just another source of revenue for the government now. Petrol/Diesel have proven to be a perfectly inelastic product, i.e., the demand for petrol/diesel will continue to be the same regardless of the price. We might complain and scream and shout, but at the end of the day we’ll pay for the petrol… and the Indian government is making bank on this.
The money collected from the cess is now used as a revenue and one would hope that the money actually gets spent on actual development of roads, which seems unlikely because we’re continuing to pay tolls on the roads even with this cess. A good follow up analysis would be where the money is actually being used.
An idealistic way of thinking of this situation is the government imposing a “carbon tax” on petrol and diesel effectively trying to wean the public off petrol/diesel and switch to alternative methods (CNG/Electric/Hydrogen). This in my opinion seems like a far cry because there’s been very little done in the alternative fuel infrastructure to date.
No political will – The politicians on both sides of the isle do not have any political will to change this status quo. Remember that today’s opposition is tomorrow’s government. So why would any opposition party raise this issue only to have a 13% shortfall in revenues tomorrow? As long as inflation rates are in control, and as long as revenue is being received, everyone is happy. This is also likely why the government has no incentive (both state and central) to bring Petrol/Diesel into the ambit of GST (since they’d have to then cap the cess or change the GST rates which could open up a can of worms)

Source for data: Multiple union budget documents taken from the website (https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/)

Currently on mobile so I’m unable to post graphs and charts with useless lines and maybe a red circle. With all of this “Security vs. Commodity” bullshit people are really getting away from the original aspect of Bitcoin. Venezuela just bought how much more in hopes of restoring their economy? I am huge in the FOREX market (full time job, actually) and I just can’t wrap my head around how people think BTC is ever going to make it unless we go back to our roots. It is a currency. It should not have this much volatility. It is a currency.

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Hello, sorry I do not belong here but I have a question I think people who trade forex can relate. I've been trying to learn divergence and Im quite confused by this graph. As the lower highs are from an uptrend and downtrend, shouldn't it be a hidden bullish divergence? Am I doing something wrong?

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Reserve Bank of India has released a list of 34 forex brokers; which has been declared illegal

List of unauthorized forex trading apps and websites - RBI

Hey guys I think it was a good idea to post this here too! I build an API to get stocks prices, financial statements, forex, crypto for you to create chart, portfolio graph.

RBI Alert List : Using these apps and websites will land you in legal trouble. This list includes popular apps like Octa Fx, Olymp Trade, Binono etc.

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[r/IndiaSpeaks - Vyakarana] - Economic Policy - The politics behind petrol

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Bitcoin was supposed to be a currency but has quickly become the Dow Jones of crypto and that scares the shit out of me.

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