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The Exchange-Traded Funds Community and Forum

You meant to go to /wallstreetbets, not /wsb. Have fun!

I’m looking to find a good reputable forex fundamental analysis newsletter. I’m aware of FXCM, but looking for more streamlined data and recommendations, they’re info is all over the place. I’m not interested in signals, more about underlying fundamentals and identifying noting tradable events, etc. Anyone have any recommendations?

List of unauthorized forex trading apps and websites - RBI

Friends, recently the Reserve Bank of India has released a list of 34 forex brokers; which has been declared illegal.

https://preview.redd.it/dc1l0ca388o91.jpg?width=637&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1a865302fede2fd22985b27c767481ecb4219204
Before releasing this list, RBI had done all checks regarding all transactions of all those forex brokers since February this year. Maybe this doesn't matter to you; Nevertheless, you should definitely check this list once.
So see if your forex broker is not on this list!
👉 Here's a full list of unauthorized forex trading apps and websites

Alpari
AnyFX
Ava Trade
Binomo
e Toro
Exness
Expert Option
FBS
FinFxPro
Forex.com
Forex4money
Foxorex
FTMO
FVP Trade
FXPrimus
FXStreet
FXCm
FxNice
FXTM
HotFores
ibell Markets
IC Markets
iFOREX
IG Markets
IQ Option
NTS Forex Trading
Octa FX
Olymp Trade
TD Ameritrade
TP Global FX
Trade Sight FX
Urban Forex
Xm
XTB

Thanks for Reading.
Please share your take on this.

Happy Tuesday, Barkada --

The PSE gained 68 points to 6355 ▲1.1%

Thanks to Spyfrat's Call for the meme appreciation, and to Jing for the trauma bonding over our unmet DDMPR expectations.
There is a lot of reading for me to do on the quarterly earnings reports, and I will definitely be taking a deeper dive on a few stocks (like MONDE) over the coming days. Let me know if there are any stocks that you'd like to see covered and I'll see what I can do!
Shout-outs to rethon-ji, John, Stephen Chiong, Makisig Tan, Pao, Jonathan Burac, Just’n, LanAustria, CubicTrade, Palaboy Trader, mArQo, arkitrader, Lance Nazal, Grumpy Trader, Chip Sillesa, Dividend Pinoy | PGG, Rolex Jodieres, leaf, and Jing for the retweets, and to Padilla GJ, Genesis Umali, Evolves.co and Mike Ting for the FB shares!

▌In today's MB:

DITO forex losses climb to ₱6-B in Q3
PSE: Twenty companies seeking Q3 reporting deadline extension
MREIT declares slightly lower Q3 div
Phoenix Petroleum Q3 profit ▼1,051% y/y

▌Daily meme | Subscribe (it's free) | Today's email

▌Main stories covered:

[Q3] DITO forex losses climb to ₱6-B in Q3... DITO CME [DITO 2.81 ▼2.09%] [link] reported Q3 profit down 88% y/y, and down 28% q/q, to a net loss of ₱11 billion. DITO’s 9M profit is down 174% y/y to a net loss of ₱26 billion, driven largely by the degrading value of the Philippine Peso relative to the US Dollar, and the unrealized foreign exchange losses that DITO has accumulated on its huge outstanding dollar-denominated debts. DITO noted ₱2.9 billion in unrealized forex losses in Q1, ₱4.4 billion in Q2, and now another ₱6 billion in Q3, for a total of ₱13.3 billion since the start of the year. DITO said that it had 13.1 million subscribers at the end of Q3 (up 36% from Q2), and that they generated an average revenue per user (ARPU) of ₱77.3 per month. The ARPU figure is down 4.6% from DITO’s H1/22 ARPU of ₱81/month. DITO’s current ratio (current assets / current liabilities) at the end of Q3 was 0.02. For reference, DITO’s competitors, Globe [GLO 2212.00 ▼3.83%] and SMART [TEL 1544.00 ▲0.92%] have current ratios that bounce between 0.33 and 0.45.

MB: In the management discussion and analysis section of the financial statements, DITO’s management says that “despite its reported capital deficiency, management is confident that [DITO] can continue as a going concern as management believes that [DITO’s] ability to continue as a going concern is dependent upon its ability to generate sufficient cash flows to meet its maturing obligations.” It’s kind of a weird wording. Maybe I’m being too picky, but it feels like DITO’s management is not explicitly stating that they believe they will generate enough cash flow to meet maturing obligations, only that they believe that DITO’s ability to avoid bankruptcy will depend on its ability to do that. It’s true that their subscriber count is growing quite quickly, but the amount of revenue that they’re getting from each of those subscribers is low and going lower over time. Sure, GLO’s ARPU was only about ₱80/month for 88 million subscribers, and TEL’s ARPU was about ₱106/month for 68 million subscribers. And those are fully mature businesses that have already built out their initial networks. The point is that it’s not like DITO just has to survive for a few more years before it passes through some magical barrier where costs fall dramatically and profits start to skyrocket. Once the initial build-out is done, it’s still going to need to have a significant yearly budget for capex to keep pace and keep growing. It’s low-cost strategy is going to keep its ARPU low, which will suppress revenues. That debt isn’t going anywhere. And while Udenna and China have “committed” to infuse additional capital into Dito Tel, Dennis Uy’s companies are bleeding out the ears, so it’s not like there’s a cash cow in the group that can serve as a gold farm for Udenna’s portion of that commitment.

[Q3] Twenty companies now seeking a Q3 earnings report deadline extension... The list of companies that are seeking deadline extensions from the PSE exploded in size yesterday, as the PSE’s deadline for submission of Q3 earnings reports came and went. There are now 20 companies that are unable to comply with the PSE’s reporting requirements, up from just eight the day before. COL Financial [COL 3.17 unch] (still consolidating) and CTS Global [CTS 0.86 ▼1.15%] (more time to finalize and get approvals) started the request fest last week, followed by National Reinsurance [NRCP 0.64 ▼1.54%] (still reviewing and finalizing), LBC Express [LBC 16.10 unch] (still reviewing data), TKC Metals [T 0.51 ▼1.92%] (still finalizing financial statements), STI Education [STI 0.32 ▼1.54%] (skeleton administrative crews hit by dengue and COVID outbreaks), Benguet Corp [BC 4.05 ▼3.57%] (still writing management’s discussion section), and Haus Talk [HTI 0.83 ▼2.35%] (still finalization and consolidating). Then, yesterday, we saw applications filed by SOCResources [SOC 0.47 unch] (still finalizing), ATN Holdings [ATN 0.36 unch] (accounting department needs time), Cirtek [TECH 2.46 ▲0.41%] (still reviewing data), Vantage Equities [V 0.73 unch] (finalizing data and getting signatures), Manila Bulletin [MB 0.39 ▲4.00%] (still reviewing data and getting signatures), Alsons Consolidated [ACR 0.79 ▲1.28%] (still finalizing and getting approvals), Transpacific Broadband Group [T 0.51 ▼1.92%]BGI (accountant needs more time), Central Azucarera de Tarlac [CAT 9.50 unch] (still reviewing data), Steniel Manufacturing [STN suspended] (needs more time), AgriNurture [ANI 7.69 ▼0.26%] (still reviewing data), Greenergy [GREEN 1.63 ▼0.61%] (still reviewing data), and Manila Mining [MA 0.01 unch] (communication problems with Surigao del Norte). All of the companies committed to submitting proper financial reports on or before November 21.

MB: Delays happen because life is unpredictable and chaotic, and any accountant (or person married to an accountant) will tell you that preparation and consolidation of financial statements is something that is difficult to rush. You can’t just wander down into the harshly-lit, under-decorated accounting department and say things like “WORK HARDER!” There is only so much time you can make up with additional overtime hours or temp workers. So, on some level, I am understanding when things come up and conspire to make for a delay. As a default though, as an investor, I start by looking at a request for an extension as a failure of process. A failure to schedule the resources needed to do the things that you need to do, in the timeframe that you need to do them. Sometimes a delay is because there’s been a huge transaction (like an acquisition or sale) close to the reporting deadline, but that kind of event is usually pretty obvious and is something that we all know can’t be solved by “process” alone. That said, the vast majority of the “reasons” given to justify an extension here boil down to some tautological version of “we need more time to finish the reports because the reports aren’t finished yet.” Only STI seemed to provide a detailed outline of the circumstances that conspired to cause its delay, in such a way that could allow an investor to gain comfort that the management team seems to understand the problem well enough to prevent it from happening in the future.

[NOTES] Quick takes from around the market...

MREIT [MREIT 11.90 ▼0.50%] [link] MREIT declared a Q3/22 dividend of ₱0.2444, payable on December 15 to shareholders of record as of November 25. The dividend has an annualized yield of 8.22% based on the previous closing price, which is -0.97% smaller than Q3's pre-dividend annualized yield of 8.3%. Relative to MREIT's IPO price, the dividend increased MREIT's total stock and dividend return to -18.55%, up from its pre-dividend total return of -20.06%.

MB Quick Take: C-c-c-combo breaker! While it’s only a slight step back, the lower div breaks MREIT’s streak of dividend increases that started back in Q1 of this year. MREIT’s net income was down almost 7% q/q, and shareholders still aren’t getting the benefit of the dividend-increasing property-for-share swap that MREIT and Megaworld [MEG 2.12 ▲2.91%] negotiated in April; the transaction is on-hold, awaiting approval from the SEC.

Phoenix Petroleum [PNX 8.49 unch] [link] Q3 profit ▼1051% y/y (▼761% q/q) to a net loss of ₱0.95 billion. 9M profit ▼734% y/y to net loss of ₱1.1 billion. PNX said that its liquified natural gas trading business was the “bright spot” in its portfolio, increasing 11% q/q with strong demand in both Viet Nam and the Philippines. Otherwise, PNX said that the “exceedingly challenging macroeconomic backdrop” of volatile oil markets, inflation, peso weakness, higher interest rates, and lower demand, caused its domestic fuel volume to “sharply drop” (-44%) and its overseas trading desk to “take a breather” (-35%).

MB Quick Take: PNX is just a gasoline reseller, so it lives and dies by demand for gas and its ability to monetize access to that gas. Unfortunately for PNX, the price of gas increased dramatically during the year, and demand for that gas has dropped off a cliff. That’s a terrible combination for a business that relies on volume and site visits to keep revenues cycling and keep stations profitable. Sentiment seems to be that oil prices are headed for $100/barrel again soon, and that “upside” risk is growing, so it doesn’t look like this part of the equation will turn in PNX’s favor any time soon.

MB is written and distributed every trading day. The newsletter is 100% free and I never upsell you to some "iNnEr cIrClE" of paid-membership perks. Everyone gets the same! Join the barkada by signing up for the newsletter, or follow me on Twitter. You can also read my daily Morning Halo-halo content on Philstar.com in the Stock Commentary section, and in the Saturday edition of the Daily Manila Shimbun.

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The End game has begun. Stagflationary 1972-73 Price pump or Deflationary 2008 bust.? I am prepared for both ;)

Disclaimer :
Apologies beforehand for a lot of verbose because of the final newsletter. For quick read up i suggest reading "Tl;dr section" ( headings ) and for the reasons behind it are included in the detailed "Experiment section".

Intro:

“I felt a great disturbance in the force as if millions of voices slowly and wildly got together and then there was an uprising against the government and the financial institutions”

Sorry guys, I was supposed to send this the day before yesterday ( great movie ) but unfortunately I got caught up in a celebration we are having over here.
So it's the start of the weekend. Y’all know what that means. I'm not talking about having a party lol, that is for me. You guys have to decipher this long post so that you can protect yourself from the upcoming danger that I am seeing. In short you’re fucked if you don’t read this especially institutions and hedge funds. Just for this week please avoid strip clubs. This one's for you guys because you read my post. ( I like to think so )
Retail public especially retards i don’t have words for you guys. You guys can chill this weekend because all you do is sh9t on my post. Might as well sh9t on this too. I don’t care since all you’re obsessed with is Ryan Cohen and $BBBY. So when you’re finally over him after getting drunk this weekend then you can go ahead and read this post. Could be worth your time.

As for people asking me why I don't give my opinions regarding meme stocks. Well folks the reason is simple. We are still in a bear market according to my calculations. So it's written somewhere in the gospel of investing that bear markets are the opportunities to analyze value companies, not meme companies which are about to be purge in the upcoming mega crash as an offering to please the gods of stock market.
Yes you “You-tube” folks the crash hasn’t even started yet. We still have -53% to go from here till March 2023 as my base case. Don't even ask me about my worst case. For that just open the Dow Jones 1929-1932 chart.

Tl;dr and Td;du folks : ( Too long didn't read, Too dumb didn’t understand )
We have already discussed this : Buy 4 months/2 months/1 months puts i.e Dec 30/Oct 29/Sept 29 at the money with strike price near about "200 day moving average = 200dMA" in $SPY last week of august if it comes.
It already did one time on August 16 and i think the top is already in. So you’re gonna profit regardless.
Invalidation would be three white soldier candles above 200dMA of course in daily chart. For positions go scroll down. ( I will make you work for it at-least. xD )

We have a long way to go friends.

Now for those folks who want a detailed explanation about everything let’s dive in.
Respected Traders and Investors,

How are you guys doing? It’s been a long time hasn’t it. God I was gone for a while and had Ni-san use my Reddit account for a few days. First of all, I'm gonna apologize for the Shzio post by my brother Itachi. Man, it felt like it messed up my brains for a while there. It was so damn trippy. So I highly highly advise you guys not to go and read it a second time. Please, it's for your own health.
Regardless i love my brother analysis coz he thinks like no other normal people do in the world of trading/investing. So, I take full responsibility for my actions and if things don't go as planned out in the above charts ( i.e the mega crash doesn’t happen you know ) then you’re not gonna hear from us.
P.s. We promised you that we will do these posts only in bear markets. Even if the USA goes into depression for 10 to 15 years we will post in a week or two until we visit ath ( all time high ) once again. One may ask why not do this stuff in the bull market? Guys you have to understand we are not bull market specialists. For bull markets it's generally advised to follow moon boys on twitter, tik-tok, You-tube etc. They are more educated and well informed than us in that department with a huge audience behind them. ( They spend so much on marketing lol )

Recap : Predictions 2022 so far.
I don’t usually like to do this because my readers already know about this but it’s time to back-test how accurate we ( i.e. me and my brother ) have been this whole time especially to show random people who are new to reading these kinds of posts especially when it’s season finale.

We predicted the March 16 post Fomc rally.

https://preview.redd.it/6n7xv1xs52j91.png?width=1851&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef518b9218d0bc29d830fc61927009ece8a66438

We predicted the April top. Thought it was gonna last two to three days more but it lasted just one.

https://preview.redd.it/ictvxtex52j91.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=1905d15b9028016b853e12dd817097c285d2eac7

Then we predicted June Fomc bottom which we already mentioned in our first letter. Does “Dante cash deployment $SPX $3600-3700 at trend based 1 fib” ring a bell. ( But then later i said to just sell above 2% because Cpi 8.8% est and Atlanta Fed Gdp -2.1% est scared the sh9t out of me and i changed my strategy from "Riding to the top of the Bear market rally" to "Shorting at the top of bear market rally" )

https://preview.redd.it/brojy4p462j91.png?width=743&format=png&auto=webp&s=a96db2532fe7643a3b03e3f2293102e8c28a06e2

And now we finally did the same for August top at 15/16 i.e. 200dMA/ 50-61.8% fib retrace which is just a follow up to above June Fomc bottom. post.

https://preview.redd.it/da60ccei62j91.png?width=818&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce9e342a4a1f31b7ed9cd4931c8511bdd9368ae5

And then there were bond, commodity, Dxy calls that we are not even mentioning.
What this all means is that the stock markets have been performing as we had hoped for since February which is like 6-7 months ago. So i guess we are not a broken clock and actually do provide the exact days or should i say the time horizon.

Am I a member of secret society i.e. "Illuminati” or have contacts in "Pay pal mafia" ?
No guys. I am not a member of secret society nor do i have any contacts. My brother do though. I do want to manage the portfolio of wealthy clients like my brother someday but I'm too lazy. I just want to take bets and watch anime and Tv shows my entire life. I just finished West world and now i guess i will watch episode 1 of “House of dragons”. ( Why did that producer said bad things about Emilia. Hmm ) As for anime recommendation man its getting hard to find good ones. I'm just waiting for Chainsaw man now.

About my self.
Before all of this I was a Computer Science student whose only good skill was learning a hybrid application development platform called Flutter ( By Google ) but now I just write detailed and boring posts on Wall Street bets about anything that comes to my mind for you guys. My predictions come right because of you folks so thank you for taking trades and also I just basically copy pasted 2008 charts ( 32nd death week ) like I do with Git-hub while programming.

Now will I be wrong in the future?
Of course I will be. I’m no economist. I just make cases i.e stock market = 1972-73 or 2008 and just bet on them. Also a big hedge fund guy might find my post someday and take the opposite trade against me wrecking people who followed my advice.
Hence i always tell you guys “Do your own research“ “This is not financial advice” even though it will be right most of the time. You absolutely should not follow anybody w/o checking out at-least 10 other guys.

Why take my advice ?
So now that we have cleared some of the confusion which I couldn't in my Wsb guest talk appearance you might be thinking why we should even consider your advice in the top 10 folks we watch. You’re a nobody. Well folks in my defense i would say it's because I gradually improved myself. Earlier my posts were shitty but now they are getting better especially my T.A. And I'm also learning economics day by day. Do you know guys I didn't wanted to write this as final post coz I was actually busy working on other post like “Deciphering Stagflation 70's” and “Thermodynamics in Economics” as my farewell post. Yes it's true guys the US economy is one giant open system. That’s how Elon Musk and Jerome Powell do calculations about economics. xD
Well enough spoilers about the next season. I know you guys are getting bored. So lets now finally jump in what i wanted to actually talk about.

Experiment :
Deriving conclusions about Nasdaq, S&P500 and rest other asset classes using other asset classes on weekly and monthly charts. I know it sounds insane right now but you will see. So just trust me on this. (My grammar is so poor)

Tools :”
I mean the Technicals i will be using today includes :
-> Candle sticks
-> Elliot wave with Fibonacci
-> Stochastic Rsi
-> My favorite which never ever lies : Pvt(O)
-> At last my “Ketlner channels”

Procedure :

Step 1 : Forex Markets

Eur-usd

Eur-usd : Have you ever seen such a bearish chart in your life both on a weekly and monthly basis? I mean as much as I love European countries but I have to say your Eur-usd charts sucks equally much. Putin owns you guys this winter. Italy and Germany are already suffering so much with 10x bills gas + electricity if compared with 2021 so i can't even imagine about countries like Spain, Greece etc. Okay so I'm gonna stop myself now with the pessimism and dive into Technicals.

Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )

Eur-usd bull traders have to stop this deadly weekly close otherwise the whole world is f’ed.
Elliot wave C wants to go 1.618 i.e. 0.924.
Stochastic RSI are about to cross weekly and go down.
Pvt(O) if it crosses the blue line and heads down means game over.’
We aren’t even testing the Ketlner red upper band. That’s how bearish we are.

Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )

Eur-usd bull traders couldn't stop monthly support i.e 1.03. Rejected it, retested it from below and rejected it again. The double top at 1.24 was deadly too coz you know when we break the support at 1.03 you go down equally much. Hence those red vertical lines.
Elliot wave C wants to go 1.618 i.e. 0.81487 so is 0.834 vertical red line support.
Stochastic RSI is in deep water. You ain't coming out of there any time soon before weekly readjusts.
Pvt(O) wants to do nothing and stay flat for a while.
We are hanging on the Ketlner upper red band.

Result : I can confidently say with 1000% certainty that Eur-usd is going down. Thank you madam Lagarde. You’re doing such a fine job by selling German Bund and buying Italian bonds. Congratulations to you and your PEP tool (Lol, guys this woman is bat-sh9t crazy)

Gbp-usd

Gbp-usd : Well first Sir Mr Bailey. I have to say I'm a big fan of your honesty if you are reading this. I mean in today's world it's hard to find someone that honest in a government job. So guys we know inflation is double digit’s over here ( heading to 13% or was it 15% in coming months ) and in September the Bank of England is going with 50 bps. So we already know that Uk is gonna have more than 2Q of -ve Gdp. I hope you Uk folks survive considering you're gonna lose jobs, probably go into economic depression because recession is everybody’s base case even of Mr Bailey. So enough details let’s do analysis.

Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )

Gbp-usd is in a huge IHS pattern but that doesn’t mean it will go to the upside that easily. Currently the price is testing right shoulder at 1.19. If it breaks then the price will test the head 1.14 and if it doesn’t break and holds then the price will go to 1.42 to test the neckline. After that we shall see whether the IHS breaks or not. Also the volume is supporting the down move.
There is no Elliot wave here. But the key thing to note is that if 1.14 breaks then you’re heading to 0.87 levels. Reason being two vertical red lines should be equal.
Stochastic RSI has crossed weekly and is about to go down.
Pvt(O) if it crosses the blue line and heads down means game over. If it doesn’t break only then you have a chance of at-least going to the neckline.
The price action has occupied the whole Ketlner red band. Meaning we are in a bearish downtrend.

Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )

Just remember we are in the box lock of 1.14 to 1.42 range. The increasing volume is also supporting this downwards move. If i don't take any wicks into consideration then it looks like the price has broken 61.8% fib and would likely head downwards to 1 fib cause there is no support of candle closing. So watch out for monthly close here as well and an eye on higher high volume. Also don't forget those red vertical lines. 1.72 - 1.42 , 1.42 - 1.14, so 1.14 - XXX. Do the math.
12345 was completed in Oct 2007 ( Yah that old ) From then we are in the ABC corrective wave. Elliot wave C is still deciding what’s gonna happen with IHS. If it breaks down you’re looking at 0.95.
Stochastic RSI is in deep water. You ain't coming out of here any time soon.
Pvt(O) wants to do nothing and stay flat.
We are hanging on the Ketlner red upper band.

Result : I can confidently say Gbp-usd is going down. Mr Soros if you’re listening to this, let's break the “Bank of England” once again. Just for good old times sake.

Usd-Jpy

Usd-jpy : If i tell you anything about this forex pair I’m probably Bs’ing you. It’s true guys. Even Mr Kuruda the governor of Boj doesn’t know where the Usd-jpy is gonna go. But what we can speculate is if the dollar becomes so much stronger due to the weakness in the Eur-usd equation then Dxy is gonna pump past 110 and the dollar becomes stronger. Got it. So I could easily play this approach into my thesis by telling you yes this pair is just gonna go up. But I will not do that. Instead I'm gonna play a devil’s advocate here saying Usd-jpy will go down. So let’s analyze things which are a total waste of your and my time because I'm gonna reverse this forex you will see how.

Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )

Traders watch the 136. It’s a critical resistance. A clean break of it would mean 148 otherwise we go 125.
Elliott wave 12345 is complete at 136 and now we go for the ABC corrective wave. A will hit you at 116 and the rest is just a made up wave.
Stochastic RSI is on bottom and will go up.
Pvt(O) too looks like it could go up.
Here in this Ketlner channel we are hanging on a lower green band. That’s how bullish we are but I have chosen to take the bear case.

Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )

Traders watch the monthly close. If it closes above 136 we go to 148 otherwise down.
Elliott wave 12345 is complete at 136 wave. Entire ABC is made up because it all depends on the monthly close.
Stochastic RSI is on top flying and looks overbought but who can argue with their unlimited bond buying which in turn has caused the parabolic move.
Pvt(O) too looks like it could touch the blue line. If it crosses we fall, if not we go up.
Here in this Ketlner channel we are on an upper green band. That’s how extremely bullish we are but I have chosen to take the bear case.

So since I took the bear case it doesn't look like any bearish to me. Don't you agree? So our devil in devil’s advocate looks weak. So to fit our thesis lets reverse this. This is kinda like physics or Math kind of stuff where we proof things by assuming inverse.

Result : I cannot confidently say but I will say Jpy-usd is going up to 148 at my favorite dot com times where Dxy went 120. Hence i’m selling my Yen trust with ticker $FXY.

Step 2 : DXY. A basket of forex currencies.

You must be wondering, I'm gonna introduce another colorful RGB crayon drawing chart on both weekly and monthly. Sorry to disappoint you folks but I'm not doing that. Instead let’s use our brains.
We know that US dollar Index i.e. Dxy is used to measure the value of the dollar a/g basket of 6 currencies. The Euro, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, British pound and Swedish krona. Now I'm not gonna explain you here why dollar is global reserve currency or dollar has more liquidity so let’s just assume that.

So what happens now is when Eur-usd becomes weaker, investors usually go risk off and buy the safest asset in the world i.e Dollar. Hence the Dxy goes stronger which suggests the dollar is getting stronger coz european buddies will exchange for dollars coz its very liquid and due to interest rate differentials. ( Remember Gbp-usd is an exception to interest rate differential coz what's happening over there is interest rates will go up but their currency is still losing its strength )

We have discussed a thesis in past letters already and came to a conclusion and I quote.
“Eur-usd is a mirror image of the Dxy chart.” Remember this for your lifetime. Especially you Gen-z.

I wasn’t gonna post a chart but then I realized I should for new folks who are lazy to read past posts. Eur-usd breaks parity and goes 0.80 levels Dxy will be 120 for sure. In monthly Dxy is super bullish. And on a weekly basis it's trying to close above 107 i believe. Hence your Voldemort asset class dropped -8% i guess. Right ?

Mirror chart : DXY vs Eur-usd

Result : I can confidently say Dollar or DXY is getting stronger in comparison to Euro, Gbp and Jpy. Hence DXY to 120 is back on the table according to the “20yrs of wyckoff accumulation” pattern. If you cleanly break 110-112 i must say equities especially the Spx is gonna visit to my $3200 level.
Now some Cnbc or Bloomberg guys who stole my research and didn’t gave me credit 2-3 months ago used to come on tv and say things like “Oh in 2018 Spx visited 200wMA so it makes sense that this cycle which is even more tightening compared to last makes sense to visit this range.”
So folks now the Spx has shifted its 200wMA/50mMA = $3500-$3600. But these clowns oops economists don't know that we should take a look at the monthly chart. Once you open that. Your pants are about to drop coz in the last tightening we visited not 200wMA but 100 monthly moving average i.e 100mMA. Yeah let’s go visit makachev vs oliviera in oct 23rd ufc 280. So if we cross paths over there I will tell you we are going to Spx $2873 i.e. somewhere around $2800-2900 which my close friend Dr Burry suggested too. Hence he sold + he is shorting coz he has relieved every moment in 2008. So he knows what’s coming next. You guys don’t.

Step 3 :Eur-usd Implied Fed funds 100-CME:GEZ2023 ( Not gonna use Elliot wave + Fib trend starting here now )

This is like gonna be super high level stuff even far above my pay grade. Only Zoltan can explain this using repo markets but since he is busy I will try to explain it in a funny way. So if you might have watched Cnbc this past week two economists were arguing about how Fed funds have priced in 4% already but one might be saying no it has only priced in 3.4-3.5%. So who is right?

If you watch “Everything money” by my suggestion then Mo came to the conclusion that the reason he is saying 4% is because the Fed is doing QT + rate hikes which Mo still does not believe.

So who is right and what is the right explanation for 4% ?
Imo they both are right but the explanation is wrong. The reason one should present about the 4% Fed funds argument is that in Eur-usd implied Fed funds went to 4%. Hence the market has priced 4% in the euro dollar banking system. But if you take only the dollar banking system in Usa then we look at yields of 2 yr and 10 yr which are hinting that Fed funds 3.4-3.5% is already priced in by the markets.

Eur-usd implied Fed funds.

Monthly and weekly time frame analysis :

Both look strong on a monthly and weekly basis. If monthly candle closes above resistance i.e. 3.50 this month then we are looking past 4% Eur-usd implied fed funds
Stochastic Rsi on weekly and crossed and is heading up while on monthly they are about to cross and hover above for a while.
Pvt(O) on weekly looks promising as compared to monthly.
Both of them don’t wanna lose their lower green Ketlner band.

Result : I can confidently say that we are going up here technically. So J. Powell, could you please back me up on this. Zoltan agrees with me. Snyder doesn’t.
( Just remember implied fed funds can go up due to Eur-usd weakness. So its kinda like indirect interest rate hike for markets. Add QT on top of that. Hence Fed is dovish in Fomc minutes for rate hikes )

Step 4 : HYG & LQD : The corporate bonds

HYG

Hyg : This product is designed to replicate a benchmark which provides a broad representation of the U.S. dollar-denominated high yield liquid corporate bond market. The high yield bond space has been cracked wide open by ETFs, as these products have offered numerous ways for investors to take advantage of this space. High yields can be a great addition to a yield-starved portfolio, as they can offer yields into the double digits for those willing to take on the risks that come along with it. The high returns come from riskier bond choices who have to pay out higher ratios to compensate investors for high risks. This means that the holdings of these ETFs will have higher chances of defaults, and could potentially leave investors out to dry. But those who have done their homework on the holdings of a particular “junk” bond fund have the ability to generate strong returns from these powerful products. HYG keeps most of its assets inside of the U.S., though it does offer a slice of international exposure as well. The ETF is dominated by corporate bonds, the majority of which have investment grades between B and BB. This product will make a great income addition to any investor who is fully aware of the risks a high yield bond product carries.

Weekly time frame analysis :

Weekly is gonna print bearish engulfing candle. Also there is a volume divergence. Price going up but volume going down which leads to fall. Trend line break candles will be the nail on the coffin.
Stochastic Rsi on weekly crossed and now are heading down.
Pvt(O) on weekly is also done after releasing supply and now will head down to accumulation..
Ketlner middle line changing band rejected the price action suggesting bearish continuation.

Monthly time frame analysis :

Monthly rejected its previous to previous top of the candle and is gonna print another st. down red monthly. Again price ascending volume declining.
But interestingly stochastic Rsi on monthly going up..
Pvt(O) on monthly also about to cross its blue line later sometimes.
As for Ketlner, well it's pretty much occupying the entire red lower band.

LQD : I leave it up to you guys. Cmon at least do one.

Result : I cannot confidently say that we are going down on a monthly time frame ( i need to see more data ) but yah sure on weekly we are going down because of that deadly candle that folks have been talking about.

Step 5 : IEI/HYG : Government bond price / Corporate bond price.

IEI/HYG : Double check below thing.

IEI/HYG : If it goes up then credit spreads are widening. ( Bad thing i.e risk off )
IEI/HYG : If it goes down then credit spreads are tightening. ( Good thing i.e. risk on )

Weekly time frame analysis :

Weekly is about to print a bullish engulfing candle. Also volume isn’t supporting downwards move i.e. price is going down but volume is going down as well.
Stochastic Rsi on weekly crossed and now are heading up.
Can't comment about Pvt(O) weekly. Mixed signals
Ketlner middle line changing band supported the price action and is green. Meaning bullish continuation

Monthly time frame analysis :

No complete data on monthly that we can make assumptions.
But stochastic Rsi crossed on monthly and suggested going down.
Pvt(O) flat.
As for Ketlner, well we had rejection from an extremely bullish green band i.e. we haven't gotten permission for capitulation but we got support from middle Ketlner to make the price go up again.

Result : I cannot confidently say that we are going up on a monthly time frame ( i need to see more data ) but yah sure on weekly we are going up.

Step 6 : ( Super scary ) : Velocity of m2 or m1 money supply i.e v = us gdp / m1 or m2.

Velocity of M2

This is a very debatable topic. Only the pros have the right to argue about this stuff and no one else. Peter lynch once told me during my time travel visit that people worry that the velocity of money supply is going up way too fast then we are gonna have depression and if the velocity of money supply goes down then too we are gonna have depression. So which one is it?

Anyways Q3 2020 : 1.149 was the highest reading. Currently we are trying to break it. Q2 2022 : 1.147

"The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy. This is called an expanding economy." ~ By Fred website.

So go out there and ask your banking friends and tell them please explain the concept of money supply in today's terms. Not an old term. So I too went to my brother for advice. He told me “ F off “

Result : “F off”

Step 7 : Gold

We are not gonna do weekly and monthly time frame analysis on this. Some of you guys may be like “Dude, I'm an old man with agricultural land. I wanna own gold like my ancestors from 18th century coz i believe in stagflation, parabolic move, end of the world, negative debasement hedge blah blah” So i need charts.

Old man's Gold :
Old man you need to chill. We are gonna use our brain like Peter Schiff. So we know, gold doesn't love that his nemesis dollar is going up. Now if you can tell me how high Dxy will go up then i can tell you that the top of Dxy will be the bottom of Gold. Also gold doesn’t love financial crisis or bank runs. In my world gold is a phoenix who rises from ashes. Meaning if we plunge into the abyss then gold is gonna drag us out of there first. Then indices move and other asset classes.

Digital Gold :
As for young folks, you love the King of Voldemort asset class don’t you? So go buy it at amazon bottom i.e. $4-5k or my favorite Richard heart level -83% i.e 10,690. Or if you really don't have the patience like probably 99% of the entire world population you buy some % of this commodity for whatever reasons these guys are selling you at $20k. I shall rest my case now.

Result : Dollar i.e. Dxy up = Gold down and vice versa.

Step 8 : TLT/JNK : It’s kinda like IEI/HYG

Can you guys do this please?
Hint : Bullish divergence on weekly and monthly. Meaning TLT ( 20yr treasury bond etf by black rock ) buying over Junk bonds i.e. JNK

Step 9 : US Oil.

Let's go Brandon and the government. Just how much are you gonna manipulate the best inflation hedge alive. You guys have already killed my Gold. Yes you J.P. Morgan traders, I hate you. May your bank dies in upcoming crash and have Panic of 2023 just like Knickbocker crisis in 1907. Only then I shall have my vengeance a/g those rumors you circulated back in the days.
So guys you probably would know this that our Usa Government try to manipulate oil market just to please people and ask for votes. These are some of their stupid tactics.

Releasing SPR ( i.e. Strategic petroleum reserve ) in the market.
Pressurizing Saudis to find oil. ( Btw Saudi Armaco alone made profits greater than all Usa mega cap tech combined )
Windfall taxes on Oil companies.
Distributing E.V. credits to people. But even E.V. companies are smart. They instead increase their price. Ford I mean what the f you guys are doing.

This is the most manipulated market I have ever seen in my 100 yr+ of lifetime. So traders if your conclusion from my above observation was that we should short Oil lemme tell you something in double quotes.
“Be afraid of Putin’s Winter Oil boogeyman”. "Contango is a dangerous thing that futures creates"

You don’t short Oil in winter. Period. Heck you shouldn’t even trade Oil. Only the expert can do this because it's called “Widow Maker” i.e. the losses in this commodity trading could be catastrophic planetary devastation like.

Tip : Btw currently oil is in downwards wedge and it could break to upside and we go up in winter but Oil too like gold doesn't love Dxy going up. So kinda mixed signals i guess. Let's see who shall prevail bulls or bears of oil.

Result : Dollar i.e. Dxy up = Oil down and vice versa but Winter is coming/ Contango = Maybe Oil up.

Step 10 : Powell curve i.e.10 yr - 3 month, 2 yr - 3 month ( Pvt(o) and Elliot wave doesn't work here )

Do you guys remember the talk we had with Powell earlier this year when he was trying to explain us that the inversion of the 10 yr - 2 yr curve doesn't mean anything and unless the near term curve inverts it's all okay. Well folks Powell near time curves are close to getting inverted. Therefore you’re seeing these Fed officials talk dovish recently. Coz if they invert Fed will lose their remaining 0.0000001% credibility. So let’s analyze them on a weekly time frame because on a monthly time frame they look super super bearish to me and there is no chance that the curve won’t invert at some point later on.

J Powell/ Fed Curves : Us10y-Us03m , Us02y-Us03m

Weekly time frame analysis :

The current weekly candle in both curves are going to close lower than previous week which could suggest further downside risk.
Stochastic Rsi on 10yr-3m looks flat dead whereas on 2yr-3m it looks like it is rising.
MacD in both of them is showing us that the downwards declining move is losing its strength.
As for Ketlner, well in both of them they are staying in the lower red band suggesting they are still in a bearish trend.

Larry Summers former Fed chairman came recently to Bloomberg saying that the Fed has shown in latest minutes that they don’t even know what they are doing. Hence they Bs’ing us in their statement. I mean guys just read these hawkish and dovish points yourself. Also do check out the hidden statements in minutes which are pieces of advice for billionaires about liquidity and t-bills. Don’t forget my warning about bank runs. They are coming. My bet is Well’s Fargo Oct 2022/23 = Lehman brothers Oct 2008 or you could also go with lowest read by a bank in Fed stress test.

Hawkish vs Dovish vs Billionaire's ( Highlighted in blue ) Fed minutes.

As for individual bonds and overall yield curve :

Bonds :

Well 10 yr yields looks so good on both weekly and monthly time frame. So we go up in yields.
2 yr yields look so good on weekly and waiting for monthly close making it bullish. Meaning on September Fed is gonna be dead. ( Yields will rise meaning bond prices go down with stocks )

Note : Once again i'm telling yields is going up due to Eur-usd down i.e. Dxy up and markets front running 95B/m QT. We are quite unsure about rate hikes coz its nearly 50-50 b/w 50 and 75 bps. It will all depend on Cpi and Jobs data in September.

Institutions and Hf’s are also buying Chinese bonds like crazy or maybe Chinese themselves because of fear of recession and growth slowdown i.e. flight to safety trade. They have deflationary recession but the thing is they have balance sheet recession. So their government is creating a liquidity trap by cutting rates. But don't forget they can always do exuberance amount of liquidity coz they have very less inflation. In Usa you're getting rekt in both stocks and bonds.

Yield curve :

As for the entire yield curve here look at these beauties that Powell has created in these charts.

Credits : Eurodollar University. By Jeff Snyder

Note : Yield should be higher if the time horizon is higher. Meaning shorter end like 2 yr to 5 yr should yield less than 10 yr and 20 yr normally due to unknown risks associated in far future. But look here in these charts. A 52 w t-bill is yielding more than 20 yr and 10 yr bonds. That’s insane. It tells us there is a danger in next 1-2yrs as compared to far in future. The curve has gone banana's b/w 26 w t-bill to 10 yr bond. After 10 yr to 20 yr curve looks so good and why won't it. Because after the most horrible decade in entire history of Usa will come a little less horrible decade. Haha.

Result : I can confidently say yields are going up in respective bonds. But will basic yield curve i.e us10y-us02y will steepen or invert more is out of my pay grade.

Step 11 : VIX. It looks so ready to pop anytime.

I mean what do i even say here. This whole year traders are buying Vix calls in 20 and shorting equities and as the Vix goes 30 they sell their calls and buy puts. Meanwhile longing their equities position.
So smart Vix traders, it's time to integrate the mega crash in your calculations. Meaning do the first phase of second part but leave tf out of second phase of second part i.e. don't buy puts on Vix and don't try to long equity in 30 coz this time folks are going to promised Vix 40+.

Result : Vix is going up. Reason : It's mid terms + Putin x Jinpig x Biden at G8 = Volatility in Sept - Nov.

Conclusion :

Financial derivation = Take those steps into consideration that you are confident in your analysis.

So I chose my Eur-usd pokemon.
Reason : I am quite confident in my analysis and Lagarde. Plus Fed minutes made a commentary about this that dollar is looking so strong as comparison to Euro. Maybe this too played a part in their recent dovish commentary.

Assuming : Eur usd is going down coz Europe is f’ed. ( We were most confident about this in all of our steps. Also my birdie told me 0.93 eur-usd traders have risen from their grave in options market )

Above assumption ( proving in step 1 t.a. ) will mean :

Dxy go up due to the mirror chart theory. ( 0.80-0.90 levels in eur-usd = 120 move in Dxy )

So now equities, commodities, metals and rest other asset class will fall down.

But what about bonds?

Well when the dollar strengthens then the countries who have dollar denominated debts have to sell their bonds and buy new bonds to refinance. Something like that. I think i butchered it. But yah it happens. Other reason being when dollar strengthens due to ext factors then its kinda like a rate hike. So since bonds don't like rate hike they sell off. Now add QT on top of it i.e 95B/m + Us treasury will issue more long term bonds and cut treasury bill issuance. So 10yr to 20yr bond yields will go up.
So now remains the case for 2yr bonds. The Fed will hike rates but it's kinda hinting that they won't go aggressive now coz they don't wanna overshoot and bring depression. Hence the 2yr bond will not go up more than the back end i.e. 10yr bond. Meaning us10y-us02y will move from inversion territory to steepening territory.
T-bills is getting bought more instead of rrp. Hence t-bills are trading below rrp. Meaning billionaires or banks fear about incoming liquidity crisis or collateral shortage. So t-bills it is or cashola. Or you could go to a money market fund and park your money there coz banks don't give you anything. Let's cause bank run together next year.

Also vix will pop up in this scenario due to asset classes being sold off

The velocity of m2 is gonna go up suggesting economy expands. Nope. Imo its suggesting dollar milkshake theory coz m2 is going down. Less dollars will be in circulation but exchanges will remain same. ( Long shot. I really don't know. Just guessing )

Final Result :

Every step we proved above using technical analysis on weekly and monthly time frame is being backed by my financial derivation except one thing. Will us10y-us02y curve invert more or steepen.? Coz steepening is bad for dollar strength whereas more inversion is good for dollar strength i.e. Dxy.
P.s. I think i'm so confused. Damn these bonds are tough to read.

Note : I forgot Dr copper. Lol. Why is it going up when Gold and other metals is going down?
*** Illuminati said : "Coz Dxy move up or bond yields move up is not because of rate hikes. They all are priced in. It's because of pseudo rate hikes on the Global market that is causing dollar to strengthen. This is due to QT + Eur-usd , Gbp-usd going down. Throw Japanese yen in there too but its chart is going up coz its Usd-jpy pair not Jpy-usd. Just like i said before too.

Farewell :
Thank you guys for your patience in reading an 8yr old post with naruto references w/o even mentioning Naruto anywhere coz Itachi stole the show. xD I am so tired guys coz i was busy writing stuff for you guys whatever was coming to my mind and leaving no mistake in my final calculations.
Take care guys. I hope one of you becomes a billionaire in this Wsb group and then pump meme stock for future generations. So suck the life out of me in the comments section. I will reply to every single one of your queries one last time.
( Now playing David Guetta : Just one last time )

Again like i always say. Don't forget your friends and family. Call them once every week. Be humble, stay safe and eat healthy.

With lots of love
Regards
Uchiha

x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x
THE END

Sayonara...!!!

Happy Thursday, Barkada --

The PSE lost 27 points to 6392 ▼0.4%

A huge thank-you to Terence Uygongco, MB's newest Starbucks Coffee Crew Patreon patron! Your generous support is very much appreciated! I'm truly humbled by the 32 readers that have signed up to contribute monthly.
Thanks also to Eric1990, Jupitel Thunder, Rommel O, SpyfratsCall, Rolex Jodieres, UsedTableSalt, grinsken, and Reynaldo Taningco, for the reactions and discussion about my write-up on PREIT, the newest Villar REIT, to Dividend Pinoy | PGG for the meme love, and to Atot and Lito who were surprised to learn that MB isn't put out by a team of writers.
I mean, I'm looking to hire a biz journo, so if you know anyone who's looking... :)
Shout-outs to Bien EC, Stephen Chiong, Palaboy Trader, mArQo, Corgi Buttowski, Just’n, Lance Nazal, Dividend Pinoy | PGG, Albert Bigornia, Chip Sillesa, leaf, arkitrader, Rolex Jodieres, and Jing for the retweets, and to Khene Rae Paranga, Evolves.co, Froilan Ramos, and Mike Ting for the FB share!

▌In today's MB:

CTS Global: brutal Q3 saved by unspent IPO proceeds
Filinvest REIT: declares another dud dividend
BSP: meets today to raise interest rates
Figaro: Q1 profit up 36% y/y; no bank debt
DoubleDragon: 9M core net income up 120% y/y

▌Daily meme | Subscribe (it's free) | Today's email

▌Main stories covered:

[Q3] CTS Global’s brutal Q3 saved by unspent IPO proceeds... CTS Global [CTS 0.90 ▲4.65%] [link], the proprietary trading firm owned by Edward Lee and run by his son, Lawrence Lee, posted a Q3 profit of ₱21 million, which was up 1,413% y/y, but down over 28% from its Q2 profit of ₱29 million. CTS reported that it lost ₱20.2 million in Q3 trading, and blamed this on the volatility in the international and domestic markets. CTS’s Q3 profit was driven largely by unrealized forex gains of ₱48.2 million, and by the ₱14.6 million in interest that it earned by buying peso-denominated government securities with the majority of the proceeds it took from investors during its IPO.

MB: CTS is a loose collection of traders, trtrained in using CTS's own proprietary trading system (we’ll call that the “CTS PTS”), but what they’re actually doing with that money we don’t really know. We only get to see the result of their cumulative efforts in the financial statements, and try to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the CTS PTS through the discussion that management provides to justify those results. So what is the takeaway for investors? Should we assume that the CTS PTS is best at turning a profit when the markets are all going up? Is the CTS PTS ineffective in a down or sideways market? CTS pivoted to Indonesia to catch some of that tech IPO lightning, but now that we’re in a “tech winter” and the easy money is gone, what is CTS’s plan for making money for the short term while rates are still rising, and the medium term where rates are elevated and tech growth is stalled? That’s what I want their management to talk about. I don’t want to hear about what the market is doing. We all know markets have been trash YTD. Rates were up. Volume is weak. Yeah, we are all dealing with that. We’re all trying to make money in the markets under the same circumstances. I just want a more clearly stated strategy from the group, but maybe that’s just me.

[Q3] Filinvest REIT declares another dud dividend... Filinvest REIT [FILRT 5.72 unch] [link] FILRT declared a Q3/22 dividend of ₱0.088, payable on December 20 to shareholders of record as of December 1. The dividend has an annualized yield of 6.15% based on the previous closing price, which is exactly the same as its pre-dividend yield because FILRT’s Q3 div is the same as its Q2 div. Relative to FILRT's IPO price, the dividend increased FILRT's total stock and dividend return to -9.31%, up from its pre-dividend total return of -10.57%. FILRT also announced that its board had voted to approve the acquisition of three parcels of land in Boracay from its ultimate parent company, Filinvest Development Corporation [FDC 6.49 ▲1.41%], for ₱1.05 billion in cash. FILRT is a subsidiary of Filinvest Land [FLI 0.82 ▼1.20%], which is itself a subsidiary of FDC. Despite being referred to as a “flagship commercial REIT of the Filinvest group” in the press release, FILRT is the group’s only REIT, and neither FDC nor FLI have revealed plans to list additional REITs.

MB: Well there it is. That sudden dividend implosion that we saw in Q2, and that the market seemed to ignore, has just been repeated. We are now in a “fool me twice” situation here. In this competitive fixed-income environment, there’s no room for dividends that shareholders can’t rely on. The “backward looking” yield (last 4 dividends) after this dividend is around 7%, which is already low, but the “forward looking” yield (Q3 div * 4) is only 6.15%. Before the dividend stream dried up, FILRT’s yield traded somewhere above its higher-class peers (RL Commercial REIT [RCR 5.25 ▲0.96%] and MREIT [MREIT 11.88 ▼0.17%]) and below DDMP [DDMPR 1.30 unch]. The REIT landscape has changed since then, but if we consider RCR’s 7.49% to be the lower bound, and DDMPR’s 8.39% to be the upper bound, that would make FILRT’s forward yield somewhere in the neighborhood of 8.00%. And that’s before the uncertainty that FILRT smeared all over the income stream by suddenly dropping it without explanation. To get FILRT’s forward yield to 8.00%, the price would need to drop to ₱4.40/share (23% lower). I was thinking that maybe FILRT was holding back on dividends to conserve cash in anticipation of this purchase, but they ended Q3 with over ₱2.2 billion in cash. Even if they’d maintained their Q1 dividend rate through Q2 and Q3, they’d still have over ₱2 billion in cash to make this ₱1 billion purchase. Maybe the simplest answer is the best answer: maybe the dividend just sucks?

[NOTES] Quick takes from around the market...

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) [link] will meet today to implement the 75 basis point interest rate increase that Mr. Medalla, the BSP Governor, signaled would occur at this meeting. That increase matches the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate raise back at the start of the month.

MB Quick Take: While I think the raise is already “baked-in” (meaning, that the impact of the rate increase on stock and REIT prices has probably already been factored in by traders), there’s always the chance for the BSP’s sentiment around the raise to make news and move prices. Recent US data allowed the US Fed to start talking about slowing the rate of its increases, which is a huge change from the tone of its statements after the last raise in early November. Will the BSP also tone it down, or will it use our strong economic performance data as cover to stay the course?

Figaro [FCG 0.61 unch] [link] released its Q1 report just one day after asking for a deadline extension (FCG reports on a non-standard fiscal year that ends June 30). FCG reported Q1 net income of ₱83.4 million, up 36% y/y. Systemwide sales were up 51% to ₱988 million, which FCG attributes to new stores coming online between Q1 last year and this year. Revenues were up 57%, but operating costs were up 63% on “increased overhead costs” in opening so many new stores. For the first time since its IPO, FCG has no loans outstanding.

MB Quick Take: It’s good to see FCG benefitting from its aggressive expansion strategy, as that’s a good sign for FCG and the quick-service food sector as a whole. While FCG still has liabilities (mostly “trade and other payables”), it’s interesting to see that they’ve paid down all their bank debt. Not only does that give them a great deal of flexibility for expansion later, but it allows the company to face the coming year of high rates without having to accommodate a ballooning debt service payment every month.

DoubleDragon [DD 6.98 ▲2.50%] [link] Q3 profit was down 86% y/y (down 13% q/q) to ₱634 million. 9M profit was also down 73% y/y to ₱2.2 billion. DD’s Q3 and 9M revenue and net income data from 2021 were heavily skewed by a ₱6.56 billion unrealized gain from a change in the fair market value of DD’s properties. Looking at “core net income”, which DD defines as excluding that one-off gain and the suppressed tax rate afforded by the CREATE Law, 9M core net income was actually up 120% (₱2.2 billion, up from ₱1.00 billion). DD didn’t do the same core income analysis for its Q3 performance, but it looks like if the one-off gain is removed (and the associated income taxes) that DD’s Q3 profit was up around 50% y/y from around ₱400 million. Rental revenue was ₱63 million higher (+6%), property sales were ₱229 million higher (+52%), and hotel revenues were ₱32 million lower (-22%).

MB Quick Take: This is what happens when a huge one-off benefit just so happens to fall in some random quarter in the previous year: everything that comes after just looks so much worse from a headline perspective. It ruins the Q3 and 9M y/y analysis. And it’s not even like a “high-bar” kind of scenario, either, because it’s not like 2021 was just an exceptional year for fair market property valuation gains. It’s literally just an accounting paper gain. Take all those pesky paper gains away, and you’re left with a core performance that is very healthy from both a Q3 and 9M perspective, way more healthy than those statistical headlines would suggest. DD’s stock is down 38% from its early March peak of ₱11.38/share, but it’s recently up 23% from its 52-week low of ₱5.60 that it set in the first week of November.

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Calendars for market moving events

Please note that different events have varying degrees of importance to the market. These calendars all contain the most important events -- which one you decide to use is a personal preference.
Investing.com
Forex Factory
MarketWatch

Newsfeed for active news traders (paid)

TradeXchange Affiliate Link ($99/3 months)

News sources

Bloomberg newsletter subscriptions - few people have recommended "Five Things to Start Your Day"
https://www.marketwatch.com/
https://finance.yahoo.com/
https://finviz.com/ - if you type in the symbol, you'll find relevant news articles and StockTwit comments at the bottom of the page

News sources (Twitter, misc.)

Community member post: A free method to find news fast using TweetDeck
Walter Bloomberg Discord - click on the Discord icon

About the FOMC

Daytraders need to know that the FOMC statement and conference causes volatility in the market. Please reference the 5-minute chart on past FOMC days to get an idea of what kind of volatility one can expect.

March 15, 2017 FOMC statement

November 2, 2022 FOMC statement

Investopedia article on the FOMC
Please read the Investopedia article if you are unfamiliar with the FOMC.

Official CME FedWatch Tool
This is the website gives a countdown to the next FOMC, as well as the projected target rates according to the rates futures market. While the FOMC meeting actually begins on Tuesday, the statement is released on Wednesday at 14:00, and the press conference is held at 14:30. Traders should be concerned with market volatility surrounding the statement release, which occurs on FOMC Wednesday at 14:00, and once again at 14:30 when the press conference is held.
This is unrelated to the release of FOMC minutes, which is also a market moving event (albeit less significant than the FOMC statement).

Official Federal Reserve Calendar
This is the official website of the Federal Reserve, and it contains download links for FOMC statements and minutes for your reading pleasure.

About the CPI

Daytraders need to know that when the market is concerned about inflation, the CPI release can be market moving.
June 10, 2022 CPI (market is very concerned about inflation)

July 11, 2019 CPI (market is less concerned with inflation)

Investopedia article on the CPI
Official release schedule of the CPI
The CPI number is always released at 8:30 AM during pre-market hours. You must use your Calendar of market moving events (see the first section of this post) to verify the day it's released each month.

Happy Thursday, Barkada --

The PSE lost 47 points to 6242 ▼0.8%

Thank you to FinanceForever and tanitsuj for implying that my "fictional family", from yesterday's write-up about the PSE's weird rules for IPOs by way of introduction, was actually autobiographical. I'll say this: while I can chug syrup, that skill was not learned at the family dinner table. Read into that what you will. Haha.
Shout-outs to Stephen Chiong, Pao, Jonathan Burac, MikMabagsik, Rolex Jodieres, Palaboy Trader, Just’n, Singapore Airlines Boarding Music 2021 is, Makisig Tan, Spyfrat's Call, LanAustria, Jose Mateo, psestocktipsdaily, Lance Nazal, arkitrader, Evolves Capital, Inc., Dividend Pinoy | PGG, Chip Sillesa, and Jing for the retweets, and to Dale Pacheco, Evolves.co, and Mike Ting for the FB shares!

▌In today's MB:

Jollibee rides record Q3 sales to deliver massive Q3 profit
LFM Properties IPO was absolute insanity
RL Commercial REIT declares stable dividend
Citicore Energy REIT Q3 dividend keeps pace

▌Daily meme | Subscribe (it's free) | Today's email

▌Today's sponsor: DM Wenceslao

▌Main stories covered:

[Q3] Jollibee rides record Q3 sales to deliver massive Q3 profit... Jollibee [JFC 233.00 ▲1.92%] [link] delivered a Q3 profit of ₱2.3 billion, up 70% from its Q3/21 profit of ₱1.3 billion, driven by ₱77.7 billion in Q3 system-wide sales (a JFC record). 9M profit was at ₱7.2 billion, up 168% y/y from ₱2.7 billion, JFC said that its strong Q3 and 9M performances are due to a variety of factors working together, but the largest being the easing of movement restrictions in the Philippines. This allowed PH-based JFC stores to experience a 48.5% same-store sales growth in Q3 y/y, which pulled JFC’s total worldwide same-store sales growth up to 30.9%. Other factors that contributed to the success were the price increases that JFC imposed in Q4/21, continued global expansion, new acquisitions (like Milksha), and beneficial forex conversions for income earned overseas. JFC said that it increased its total worldwide store count by 6% to 6,351 in the first 9M of 2022. The only concerning statistic came out of China, where JFC same-store sales were down 4.6% y/y due to the reimposition of movement restrictions meant to slow the spread of COVID-19.

MB: The bee has been busy. Remember the days when JFC would need to extract the Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf (CBTL) acquisition from its financials? Not anymore. CBTL, along with Highlands and Milksha, account for 30% of JFC’s store network and 15% of its total system-wide sales. CBTL was even a stabilizing force through the punishing and confusing lockdowns that we went through that kept earnings from PH-based locations suppressed. Now, the patience that JFC has been pleading for is paying off. The thing I’m most curious about, though, is how JFC’s business has changed since COVID. Did the industry flip to 20% dine-in and 80% dine-out as McDonalds’ and JFC had predicted back in 2020, or are we getting back to something that looks more like the glory days of stuffing as many people as possible into each location? There was so much talk a couple years ago about how the quick-service industry would need to change to survive the “new normal” (cloud kitchens, 3rd party delivery apps, dine-out dominance), but are these recovery numbers coming from the old way of doing business, the new way, or a blend of the two? I’d love to see some segmented analysis.

[NEWS] LFM Properties IPO was absolute insanity... The Liberty Mills Flour [LFM 17.78 ▼1.22%] spin-off, LFM Properties [LPC 0.205 ▲91.6%], opened for trading yesterday morning with the first trades coming through at ₱0.398/share. That’s already a 272% increase over the valuation and fairness opinion price that LPC received from KPMG of ₱0.107/share. Six minutes later, by 9:36, the price had jumped up over 600% from that opinion price to ₱0.75/share with a little over half a million shares trading hands around this price. At that price, LPC had a marketcap of ₱18.75 billion. Keep in mind, LPC’s marketcap coming into the day was just ₱2.67 billion, and the marketcap of its parent company, LFM, which owns 58.6% of LPC, was just ₱2.7 billion. LPC was now (technically) worth 6.9 times its parent company. Nice and normal. By 9:39, the price had dropped all the way back to ₱0.39/share, which is a 48% drop over three minutes, but still a 270% gain relative to that opinion price. By 9:54, the price was down to ₱0.30/share, which was down 60% from that early peak, but still up 180% on the day. At 10:00, the price reached ₱0.20/share (up 87%). It bounced back up to ₱0.25/share (+133%) just before lunch, but kind of faded through the day back down to ₱0.205 where it closed, down 73% from the 9:39 AM peak, but up 91.6% on the day.

MB: As predicted, this IPO was a joke, just like the last listing by way of introduction. The PSE says that it removes the daily price increase and decrease thresholds in order to allow “market forces to determine the price of the securities.” Those thresholds would have capped LPC’s potential gains on the day at 50%, just like every other stock, and even every other IPO. What, exactly, did market forces “discover” about LPC’s price? Well, all we know so far is that it’s probably not ₱0.75/share. Sweet. What else did the market forces tell us, though? For one thing, they told us that the regular price thresholds, while imperfect, actually perform a very useful function; the 50% gain cap prevents FOMO from infecting investors and discourages euphoric speculation and obvious price bubbles. This is the kind of trading that I associate with shitcoins on dank crypto exchanges with no fixed address and website text that looks like it was written with a heavy reliance on Google Translate. This is the kind of trading that reeks of bored equity traders just trying to have some fun on the side. I think that there’s a time and place for that kind of fun, but why the PSE thinks that it’s a good idea to encourage price bubbles that leave hundreds or thousands of investors hopelessly underwater is beyond me. Why not slap those caps on this kind of listing? If it’s ok for “market forces” to determine the price of every other thing on the PSE within that -30% to +50% band, even other IPOs, then why couldn’t it work for this type of listing in the same way? The PSE: “Just drink your syrup.”

[NEWS] RL Commercial REIT declares stable dividend... RL Commercial REIT [RCR 5.09 ▲0.79%] [link] declared a Q3/22 dividend of ₱0.0974, payable on November 29 to shareholders of record as of November 22. The dividend has an annualized yield of 7.65% based on the previous closing price, which is 0.21% larger than Q3's pre-dividend annualized yield of 7.64%. Relative to RCR's IPO price, the dividend increased RCR's total stock and dividend return to -14.18%, up from its pre-dividend total return of -15.69%. This is RCR’s 4th consecutive quarter of dividend growth.

MB: A stable return from the Gokongwei Family’s commercial leasing REIT. While RCR IPO buyers have never known what it feels like to receive anything other than a larger dividend than what has come before, it’s clear that the rate of that growth is not what it used to be. The first jump was 48%, the second jump was 4.8%, the third jump was 0.7%, and this most recent increase was just 0.2%. Hey, don’t get me wrong: growth is growth. I’d rather own RCR than a REIT that suddenly halves its dividend without justification or reason. The Gokongwei Family is steady and stable in the REIT game.

[NEWS] Citicore Energy REIT Q3 dividend keeps pace... Citicore Energy REIT [CREIT 2.09 ▼0.95%] [link] declared a Q3/22 dividend of ₱0.044, payable on January 5 to shareholders of record as of December 9. The dividend has an annualized yield of 8.42% based on the previous closing price, which is in-line with the annualized yield CREIT had prior to the declaration. Relative to CREIT's IPO price, the dividend increased CREIT's total stock and dividend return to -11.49%, up from its pre-dividend total return of -13.22%.

MB: I’ve been talking for months about how, compared to its other REIT siblings, CREIT is completely insulated from the vulgar ups and downs of the Metro Manila commercial lease market. Will the administration outlaw POGOs? CREIT doesn’t care. Will work-from-home laws change, and how will this impact the demand for office space? Again, CREIT doesn’t care. All of its income comes from leasing land to solar power plants, on long-term leases. The only variable for CREIT is in the size of the special dividend at the end of the year that gives investors a little upside in the form of a small slice of the actual electricity sale profits. None of the commercial REITs provide any kind of profit-sharing mechanism. I’m not saying that CREIT is the superior investment; there are many reasons why you might select another REIT for the long-term, depending on the assumptions that you’ve made about Metro Manila’s growth and the projected growth of the leasing market going forward. I’m just trying to draw out some of the interesting differences between CREIT and the rest of the market that give fixed-income investors another angle to work with.

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Bank of America stock plunges, leading selloff in shares of largest U.S. banks ^News
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How to beat the market: Why index investing works and how to beat it.
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I dont defend this douche guy, he deserve it for being an @sshole.
Tapi ada yang punya kronologi jelasnya dia sebenarnya ngapain sebagai affliator binomo? Gua cari di berita isinya di luar konteks dan isinya "diduga" dan ga jelasin kronologi urutannya sampe urusan pacarnya segala.
Ada yang bilang dia sebagai affliator meraup uang loss pemainnya. Gua ga ngerti soal app binomo tapi apa itu hasil loss bisa connect ke "kantong" dia? Apa dia jadi agen perantara ketiga macam judi bola?
Does binomo even legal? I mean its legal in India. Dan konsepnya nyambung ke forex kan?
Gua cuman pengen tahu aja ginian, bahkan telegram grup mayoritas kalangan "investor" begitu kan disangka tempat chat teroris dulu kan dan terus disuruh uninstall. I have trust issues because massive of propraganda we are facing rn.

THE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE PROJECTIONS ARE A DRIVER OF THE MARKET. ONCE THEY START COMING DOWN EXPECT THE BOTTOM TO BE IN.
On, September 21st, 2022, the United States Federal Reserve shocked the market with what seemed an outrageous projection for the federal funds rate. Some projections from the FOMC members of 5.25% stretch out until the end of 2023. One of the hawks FED meetings that the market has seen. Subsequently, the market fell almost 5% off after hearing this news and digesting the hard pill to swallow.
However, the Bank of England just started to bail out the economy. Quite a different bit of tone and policy structure. Opposite. Bank of England just announced an “Unlimited QE” policy. Essentially printing an unlimited amount of money to purchase bonds to lower their interest rates for government borrowing. All while, lowering tax rates for the UK. Dumping billions of dollars into the economy for a short period.
A policy like this of “Unlimited QE” we saw back in 2020 through 2021 from our own US government. To bail out the economy through any means possible. Was the slogan of the Federal reserve. Will a similar style or U-turn happen from the federal reserve in the United States? Only time will tell. It has been almost impossible to guess or predict what the federal reserve is going to do.
However, as traders and investors, we can use historical data to be able to predict when markets have bottomed or when they will bottom. Historically it is when the Federal Funds rate projections start to come down from elevated levels. Let’s go back to the year 1973 to 1985 when inflation was at similar levels of above 7%.
SPX vs Funds Rate
As seen above, the bottoms came when the fund’s rate started a “U-Turn”. The rates were being pushed higher and higher both times. Then subsequently when the Funds rate started to decline at an accelerated rate.
We can use this data to make educated trades. Now we just have to wait and have patience as traders and investors to start buying into the market when the Funds Rate starts to have rate cuts. This is key for investors.
Federal Funds bonds project that the rates will reach 4.75% and not start price cuts until December of 2023. This is a long time away, allowing the market to have significant pain until then. Benchmark Trades believes that the fund’s rate will most likely come down much sooner. When they start coming down, or at least projections start coming in. This is when Benchmark Trades will be looking for long-term investable levels in Stocks, and ETFs.
https://preview.redd.it/2q1hzdjru0r91.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=b79a5438131196c98231e549f240b1a0a92cd356
The above shows, every single recession in the United States correlated to the S&P 500. It shows almost every single recession in the US, has been the bottom of a market. The issue is, recessions are a lagging indicator and such a long period. A technical recession occurs when you get two-quarters of negative GDP growth. However, the majority of the bottoms come near the end of the recession.
So how do we look at the recession ending? Leading indicators. Such as ISM manufacturing, Consumer confidence, and the Advanced GDP projection. The Key indicator that Benchmark Trades is going to be using, is Advanced GDP estimations. Not the actual read, but the projections. Due, to a slow in demand, and wealth destruction it is unlikely that Q3 will post a positive read. This being the case, we are looking for not even the end of the recession ending until Q1 of 2023 being a very bullish case.
So take your, estimation of when you think we will see economic GDP expansion again, and start adding to investable levels one quarter before. This is what history tells us to do. Since we aren’t the smartest in the room. Benchmark Trades looks at what other analysts project the Advanced GPD read will be. These normally come out 1-2 weeks before the actual read.

Market Analysis

As stated in the last newsletter, we were excepting a market bounce off of new lows. Creating a little bit of a bear bounce or bull trap. This is exactly what is starting to present itself. A little bit of support is structured near 360.
SPY Coiling
With no new lows creating themselves the low was 360.69. Only, 19 cents from the current relative lows that we saw in June. Not creating new lows is significant for the stock market. It allows the market not to get vacuum liquidated. Meaning that the market will not liquidate and force sell all of the stop orders and sell alerts for new lows.
Stopping right before the new relative bottoms, it created this little support bottom. It now as of 9/28 at Noon, is looking to start to fill Gap #1 from the last article. As of Investopedia on average 9 out of 10 gaps get filled. Meaning that it is highly likely that the gap becomes filled soon. And as of now, our positions are perfectly aligned to capture this short-term bull trap and bear bounce.

Technical Analysis Prediction

https://preview.redd.it/geyu0krzu0r91.png?width=1046&format=png&auto=webp&s=348afdba78e93e503ea36b629225b736382bec0a
With two large gaps created in the last month, the market has been on a quick pace to make new lows. However, stopping 19 cents above new lows the market is bouncing. Up 1.5% intraday looking to close the gap #1. With a good enough bounce the market could be on a trajectory to hit the support resistance line created from July/August lows and the resistance created on FOMC projection release day.
Benchmark Trades, thinks that it is highly likely that we see at least Gap #1 filled. Furthermore, we suggest that the resistance line will also be met in the following week or weeks. This will come from exhaustion from sellers and a miniature short squeeze. If we see the resistance line broken, I would not be surprised to see the GAP #2 tap.
However, it would not surprise the market to fill gap #1 and then move down further. This would not be optimal for the Benchmark Trade Tracker, however, would is being well hedged against if it does happen.

Upcoming Market Moving Events

Track these events for Pivots in the Market, you can find a nice customizable calendar at ForexFactory.com.

Sept 30th, CORE PCE Price Index
Oct 7th, Unemployment Rate
Oct 16th, China Communist Party Congress Start

Conclusion:

Timing the market bottom does not have to be as complicated as people make it seem. You might just not get to the market bottom but you will get close. Being consistent in investing and not betting the farm on your trades will ensure that you will have a portfolio that outperforms the market.
If you found value in this Please read our full newsletter at Benchmark-Trades

Bollinger Bands are used as a tool for technical analysis of a variety of financial markets, including Forex. They show the prices and volatility over time of a given asset and are used in various trading strategies.

The Bollinger Bands formula was introduced in the 1980s by John Bollinger. Since then, these statistical charts have been used to analyze market data, inform trading decisions, and manage algorithmic trading.
In this article, you will learn what exactly Bollinger bands are, how they are calculated, their relationship with the MACD indicator and with other indicators such as the RSI, among other key points of this tool.
Related: Top Stock Investment Newsletters

What are Bollinger Bands?

They are indicators for the analysis of price patterns. These are two intervals drawn in order to predict the range of potential volatility of an asset, in relation to a moving average.
Typically, these price channels move across the chart symmetrically. But under certain market conditions, the distance between the bands varies significantly.
Despite the existence of trends, we cannot deny that market movements can be quite erratic. Therefore, technical analysis applies this method to anticipate a price action.
Bollinger Bands appear as three bands, with the middle being a simple moving average, usually drawn over a 20-minute period.
The other two bands (the upper and the lower) are reactive to changes in volatility and indicate the two extremes. They are calculated around the simple moving average, which we will show you below. They are first drawn and then projected into a channel that will contain the expected price changes.
https://preview.redd.it/pa7lh8ypi31a1.png?width=623&format=png&auto=webp&s=f45949cda82f5190ec7e9eb5f98a351489203de9

How to set up Bollinger bands?

The Bollingers Band can be used on most time frames, from short-term periods, such as five-minute charts, to daily, hourly, or monthly frames.
The commonly used period is set to 20, but can be modified to suit a specific need. As for the standard deviation, it is often positioned at 2.0.
As a consequence, the indicated Bollinger Bands (20.2) signal that the period and standard deviation (StdDev) are set to 20 and 2, respectively. The term “High StdDev” means that the price is less likely to reach any of the bands. With a low StdDev, the price will possibly outperform the channel.
To calculate Bollinger Bands, you must determine the middle, lower, and upper bands separately. The formulas are as follows:

Middle band = 20-day SMA (simple moving average).
Lower band = 20-day SMA – (20-day price standard deviation x 2).
Upper band = 20-day SMA + (20-day price standard deviation x 2).

How to use Bollinger bands?

Let's quickly review the type of information that traders can measure from this indicator:

The upper band shows statistically higher prices.
The lower band proves otherwise.
The bandwidth; that is, the difference between the upper and lower Bollinger bands corresponds to the volatility of the market.

As an indicator of volatility, Bollinger Bands tighten or widen around the price chart. As seen in the above formula, the price range widens as the standard deviation increases and vice versa. For example, when the volatility of a given currency pair is low, the channel narrows.
Furthermore, it can be used to confirm a trend and describe its direction and strength:
During an uptrend, the price will continuously reach the upper band. The price reaching the upper band means that the buying activity is strong.
The trend is likely to increase, not only when the 20-period MA is higher, but also when it goes beyond the upper band.
In the event that the price pulls back during an uptrend, it can mean two things. If it does not fall lower than the SMA and rises again, it confirms the strength of the trend. However, if it breaks above the lower band, it means that the uptrend is reversing.
By confirming price action, Bollinger Bands provide Forex traders with information on whether to open buy or sell positions. For example, a sell trade should be placed at the upper limit of the band, while entering a buy trade is advisable at the lower limit of the band.
If a currency normally follows a range pattern, this method will be useful. However, mistakes can cause huge losses, such as when a breakout occurs.
As a technical analysis tool, Bollinger Bands offer peace of mind when traders make certain decisions. When trading near the outer limits, you can be sure that there is resistance (upper band) or support (lower band).
But this indicator is just an insufficient signal, as all it does is offer insight into the price relative to historical volatility.

3 Bollinger Bands Trading Strategies

After determining what Bollinger Bands are, how to calculate them, and what kind of information they provide, it's time to learn about some of the best strategies to use.

1. Bollinger Squeeze

When the distance between the Bollinger bands reaches a 6-month low, it is identified as a “squeeze”. When volatility is this low, traders need to prepare for the eventual breakout. The biggest challenge is figuring out the direction of the breakout:
Let's see an example. Suppose that other indicators, such as the relative strength index ( RSI ), along with a volume-based indicator, are rising. At the same time, the price is falling or falling sideways. These are signs that it is a bull market.
On the other hand, when the price rises and the indicators are stable or below, it is a bearish breakout.
When the price moves in either direction after this consolidation period, the price movement is usually aggressive. If it breaks through the upper band, traders must place buy orders and vice versa. A stop loss is preferably set on the opposite side of the breakout.
https://preview.redd.it/u54i64fli31a1.png?width=974&format=png&auto=webp&s=53f03ed9f93164ca6ee2503b6b21ff462047e219

2. Scalping

This strategy takes advantage of short-term volatility in the currency. It even works for limited range conditions, closely accompanied by Bollinger bands.
Here are the settings:

Bollinger bands are set to the default parameters - 20.2.
The best timeframes for Bollinger Bands scalping are 1 minute, 5 minute and 15 minute charts.
The recommended trading sessions are those in London, New York and Tokyo.
Lastly, traders can make maximum profits when trading currency pairs with low spreads like GBP/USD, EUUSD, etc.

https://preview.redd.it/cvurfu2ei31a1.png?width=623&format=png&auto=webp&s=e085da54d91c159e6d8a1ce1cb7bb51838d158cb
Enter a long trade if:

The price remains above the middle band and approaches the upper band.
The bandwidth is extended.
The price seems to be going up.

The short entry rules are as follows:

The price remains below the middle band and approaches the upper band.
The bandwidth is extended.
Market sentiment points to the bearish move and the price is pushed further down.

3. MACD indicator

The strategy is set up to use the MACD indicator in order to define the trend and Bollinger bands and trigger trades.
The MACD indicator settings should be set to:

Slow moving average at 26.
Fast moving average at 12.
9 day EMA as the “signal” line.

The Bollinger Bands configurations are:

MA at 12.
StdDev a 2.

The conditions for entering a long position are: the MACD must be higher than the signal and zero lines, and the buy stop order must be placed at the upper Bollinger band.
Short trades are entered when: the MACD is lower than the signal and zero lines, while the sell stop order is set at the lower Bollinger band.
https://preview.redd.it/473gnpsii31a1.png?width=974&format=png&auto=webp&s=f8cc74b47c13a806dec0f45816f988595269226a
With this strategy you will receive accurate signals, avoid large losing streaks and have the opportunity to profit from trend and consolidation conditions. However, it is important that you constantly look at the charts.

Trading with Bollinger Bands

All successful traders must be able to determine how the markets move. This is why Bollinger Bands are applied: to analyze the strength of the trend, to monitor when a reversal may occur, and to inform whether you must enter or exit the market to make a profit.
With Libertex you can find a strategy that suits your skills and preferences. This platform is built by professionals, which guarantees that you will have at your disposal the best features and knowledge for each level.
Start a free demo account to learn more about selecting and placing trades and progress to more complex strategies. Although Forex may seem intimidating at first, it's actually more achievable than you might think.
Likewise, if you are interested in trading and want more information before diving into it, on our blog you will find articles on strategies, tools -such as Bollinger bands- and other essential concepts so that you become familiar with this wonderful universe.
>>>Access more profitable trading tips joining the Capitalist Exploits Insider Newsletter

Happy Wednesday, Barkada --

The PSE gained 113 points (!!) to 6851 ▲1.7%

Good work! Over 200 Barkadans clicked on the PSE STAR registration link yesterday. There's another full day of presentations (schedule below), so I am literally begging you to take the time to check it out. You don't have to commit to the whole day. Just watch part of one!
Click here to register!
Here's the schedule of events for today: BNCOM: 10:25 AM DNL: 11:15 AM PIZZA: 1:30 PM CREIT: 2:15 PM MREIT: 3:10 PM
*** PROGRAMMING NOTE *** I'm going on vacation tomorrow. I'm still going to be in the markets, I just won't be researching, writing, and producing MB each morning before my family wakes up. :) I'm still reachable by Twitter, Reddit, Facebook, and email if you have any questions, comments, concerns, or business inquiries!
See you at 8 AM on September 1!
Congrats to LanAustria (@airtsua_lan) for winning the P1,000 Grab Food voucher draw! Thank you to all the 55 Barkadans that retweeted and shared to enter!
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▌In today's MB:

DITO CME lost ₱7.3 billion on forex in H1
VistaREIT Q2 div is actually a blended special/regular dividend
JG Summit’s Q2 profit didn’t drop 95%... it went up 335%!
PLUS: Quick takes on CTS, COL, and ALLDY

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▌Main stories covered:

[Q2] DITO CME lost ₱7.3 billion on forex in H1... DITO CME [DITO 3.76 ▼0.53%] [link] posted a Q2/22 net loss of ₱8.6 billion, down 292% from its Q2/21 net loss of ₱2.2 billion, and down 9% from its Q1/22 net loss of ₱7.9 billion. DITO is the parent company of Dito Tel, but the 3rd telco’s financials were not officially incorporated into DITO’s financial statements until the share-swap was executed in H2 of 2021. Prior to Dito Tel’s inclusion, DITO’s financials were basically the interest that the company made off of extending loans to Dennis Uy’s other companies, like Udenna Corp and Chelsea [C 1.18 unch], while waiting for the share-swap to complete. The result is that year-on-year comparisons of the Q2 and H1 data are basically useless. Of course DITO will show a 957% uptick in H1 revenue; it didn’t really earn anything in H1/21. Of course DITO will show massive upticks in H1 expenses; it didn’t really do anything in H1/21. This means that we need to be looking at quarter-on-quarter data to derive anything interesting about Dito Tel. On a q/q basis, DITO’s ₱8.6 billion net loss is only 9% worse than the ₱7.9 billion loss it posted in Q1. Comparing DITO’s Q1 report to its Q2 report, total revenues are up 27% to ₱1.7 billion, but DITO’s operating loss widened by 0.35% to ₱3.4 billion. General expenses were up 3% to ₱2.9 billion. Interest expense was up 34% to ₱0.8 billion. DITO also revealed that it incurred ₱7.3 billion in unrealized foreign exchange losses in H1, as the value of the Philippine Peso (the currency its customers use to pay for its services) dropped dramatically as compared to the US Dollar and the Chinese Yuan. As of the end of H1, DITO has US $1.16 billion in interest-bearing loans that, at current exchange rates, represent ₱63.9 billion in liabilities. The exact same loan, measured at the end of 2021, represented “only” ₱59.0 billion in liabilities. That’s a net difference of ₱4.9 billion in just 6 months.

MB: Those forex losses are startling. When DITO says that the losses are “unrealized”, what it means is that they expect to lose that amount (as of the current exchange rates) as DITO makes its payments on its outstanding debt. The losses will be “realized” when the payments are made, and the foreign exchange difference is felt. It also means that the underlying exchange rates could continue to change to help DITO, or to hurt it even worse. Outside of that unsolved forex problem, Dito Tel’s operating losses are still growing, despite throwing a ton of new subscribers onto its network. While the headline will be distractingly bad, there are two things I liked from an administrative perspective. First, DITO actually referred to Dito Tel as “the Company’s largest investment” in the first paragraph of its Management Discussion section (the only change in the paragraph from Q1). Second, DITO revealed that its average revenue per unit (ARPU) for H1 was ₱81. ARPU is a basic telecommunications metric that measures the profitability of a company’s users, and this was the first time that DITO has publicly used this metric in its earnings reports. Is this a good result for DITO? No, but operations are not as bad as the headline losses could make you think. I mean, they’re not good. And DITO still has a massive amount of forex exposure risk, but the operating loss basically flatlined while going from 5 million subscribers at the start of Q1 to 9.6 million at the end of Q2. In a sea of red, that’s something to work with.

[UPDATE] VistaREIT dividend was a combination of a special and regular Q2 dividend... The VistaREIT [VREIT 1.74 ▼0.57%] Investor Relations department confirmed to me that the VREIT Q2 div was actually a combination of a special dividend (₱112 million) from income generated from May 1 through June 14, and a regular dividend (₱45,100,616) from income generated in the final half of June, from June 15 through to VREIT’s listing on June 30. The IR department also updated VREIT’s occupancy rate to 97% (up from 91%), and its WALE to 4.1 years (down from 5.1 years).

MB: Thanks to the VREIT IR department for their quick response, and for wishing me good “VHealth”. Haha. Let’s forget about the “special” part of this dividend for a second, and just focus on the “regular” component to see how VREIT’s first dividend compares to its REIT Plan guidance of an 8.25% yield (based on the IPO offer price of ₱1.75/share). If the regular dividend represents (roughly) what shareholders get from half of a month’s distributable income (~₱0.006/share), then we could annualize this amount by multiplying it by 24 (the number of half-months in a year) to get a full-year dividend of ₱0.1443/share, which, at VREIT’s IPO price, represents an estimate annual yield of 8.24%, right in-line with VREIT’s guidance.

[CORRECTION] JG Summit’s Q2 net income didn’t drop 95%... it went up 335%!... Yesterday, my headline reported that JG Summit [JGS 55.60 ▲1.00%] [link] had delivered a Q2 net income of only ₱44 million, which I said was a 95% drop from its Q2/21 net income of ₱815 million. That’s not even close to correct. My script took the “net income attributable” line from JGS’s 17Q earnings report instead of the “net income after taxes” line, and in a rush, I wasn’t critical enough of that to spot the mistake. My breakdown of the individual business units is still accurate, as is (I believe) my analysis of how exposed JGS is to inflation and the second-order effects of it, but my headline and the summary numbers about the quarter were just completely off. I called JGS’s quarter a “dog’s breakfast”, but maybe the real dog’s breakfast was my write-up, and JGS’s quarterly report was just more or less “fine”, but with several worrying points of vulnerability to continued inflationary pressures.

MB: I apologize to you all for my error. Thank you to Dom for sending me a message to ask some questions about my data. That got the process of discovery started. Some days, I feel like a guy surrounded by hundreds of scripts in various states of disrepair, but for some reason on this day I decided to just John Daly the results of my scripts (just “grip it and rip it”) without taking a closer look. Seems like my upcoming break will be the perfect opportunity for me to take a deep dive into my own Google Sheets logic and Python code. Don't feel bad for me, I love it so much. But sometimes I let myself live with ""mostly working"" code for too long, and this error tells me that I need to make a few improvements!

[NOTES] Quick takes from around the market...

CTS Global [CTS 1.09 unch] [link] H1 net income up 74% y/y on unrealized foreign exchange gains. CTS said that its H1 global trading revenue fell 53% y/y to ₱28.3 million, and that its local trading revenue fell 46% to ₱20.2 million, for a combined drop of 41% y/y. While trading revenues are down, CTS noted that it had an unrealized foreign exchange gain of ₱44.2 million in H1 that saved its weak trading performance by boosting net income significantly. MB: I don’t think that any of CTS’s IPO investors were clicking “BUY” with the thought of sweet unrealized foreign exchange gains and income from low-risk government debt instruments dancing through their heads, but here we are. Remove the ₱44.9 million in foreign exchange gains from H1/22 and the ₱3.8 million in foreign exchange gains from H1/21, and the picture looks dramatically different: H1/22 core net income of ₱5 million, down 80% from its H1/21 core net income of ₱24.9 million. That’s abysmal. It’s even worse if we isolate for Q2: core net loss of ₱6.6 million, down 8,150% from its Q2/21 core net loss of ₱0.08 million.

COL Financial [COL 3.51 unch] [link] Q2 profit ▼57% y/y, ▼46% q/q, to ₱49 million, with 1H profit ▼71% y/y to ₱140 million. COL blamed the huge drop in profitability on a “significant drop in commission revenues”, and the lack of non-recurring revenue from the sale of financial assets in H1/22. COL saw an 8% increase in the number of new customer accounts, bringing its total to ~507,000, but noted a 9% drop in net customer equity to ₱102 billion. COL also noted that the PSE itself was down 13.6% during H1, and that the average daily turnover fell 16.6% y/y to ₱7.5 billion. MB: The previous year, COL’s H1 account growth was 23% y/y, and its net customer equity growth was 53% y/y. This year’s numbers are tiny in comparison. While overall market sentiment is important to COL's possible earnings, I don’t agree with COL trying to make some kind of “high bar effect” argument about the impact of its sale of financial assets in H1/21 somehow making its H1/22 look that much worse. The revenue COL recognized in H1/21 on the sale of those assets was just ₱55 million, which was just 6.7% of its total H1 revenue that year. Take those sales out, and COL still made ₱424 million in profit in H1/21, and its H1/22 performance is still 67% lower. If I were a COL shareholder, I’d be wondering why the company hasn’t done more to appeal to the masses that flocked to its system during the crypto frenzy and basurapalooza of late 2020 and early 2021.

AllDay Marts [ALLDY 0.35 ▼4.05%] [link] Q2 profit ▼19% y/y, ▲215% q/q, to ₱87 million, with 1H profit ▼94% y/y to ₱11 million, largely due to ₱170 million in losses related to the Alabang fire in January. Operationally, ALLDY noted a marginal 2.2% y/y improvement in H1 sales, but that was considerably less than the 20% y/y sales increase it noted last year. Finance costs were lowered 70% to ₱10 million due to “loan settlements” made using proceeds of ALLDY’s 2021 IPO. MB: Forget for a second that the fire never happened. I don’t know if I’m able to patch up the lost sales and opportunity cost of the ₱170 million spent on dealing with the lost inventory and damage to the property, but just dump that ₱170 back into the Q2 and H1 financials; nothing happens to Q2 (the fire was in Q1), but the H1 results actually improve so much, from down 94% to up 1% y/y. Yes, Q2 is still a “thing”; if we put the ₱170 million back into Q1, that puts the net income there up to around ₱95 million, and that leaves Q2 down 19% y/y and down 8% q/q. Not the best trend for a consumer-facing business in the midst of a consumer-facing business recovery, where the stock price is down 40% from its IPO price and down 25% since the start of Q2.

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Investing from Halloween to May

On November 1, the famous seasonal pattern of "Sell in May and Go Away" begins, which determines that the months of November to May of the following year are historically the most profitable to invest. While the months from May to October are usually more bearish or volatile.
https://preview.redd.it/t854u7206pz91.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf43166da35b386a3f8ae592bdde83d7107bcf7a
The guideline to follow would be:

Be invested in shares from November 1 to May 1. And the rest of the year have it in other assets such as Bonds or Cash.

But does this really work? As almost always happens with almost everything, the answer is...it depends!
In the case of the S&P500 , we appreciate that it is true that the volatility of results is greatly reduced by operating only between November and May, compared to being invested in stocks all year. And even in this year, the pattern's return would show smaller declines than if we had been invested all year.
Related: Top Stock Investment Newsletters
But we might think that the pattern really works because the asset has historically been bullish . So if the asset is bullish, the logical thing is that the pattern is too. And we would not be wrong.
Even if this were true, in the case of the S&P500, the reduction in volatility and improvement in returns would make it profitable to trade the pattern , since it improves holding the asset.
But the pattern does not work for all assets.
In the case of Forex, Commodities and Cryptos it does not behave well. It does not work.
And for actions, it depends on which ones we choose.
And there are actions in which it works despite the fact that the asset is not in an upward trend . As an example we put this one from Spire Inc. , which is listed on the NYSE. We appreciate that since 2019 it was in range and yet every year, including 2022, it obtained positive returns.
https://preview.redd.it/b1yawd226pz91.png?width=740&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad7c6f3662f96be866a63a5345a88488ed7be554
And so would stocks like Fiserv Inc. that is listed on the NASDAQ, and that since 1987 has not had a negative year. This is a clear example of the pattern working well because the asset trended perfectly and strictly bullish until 2019, at which point it started with strong volatilities and ranges. But despite this volatility and wide ranging sideways movement, the pattern won every year.
https://preview.redd.it/ggg8uw636pz91.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=57bc62601e666929798cadf80c4fc01afaf99da5

Conclusion

We would take the Sell in May pattern more as a filter than a pattern itself . It would be a filter that we would use to overweight or underweight certain markets during this period, but not a model to invest in.
And above all we would choose those assets that would have behaved well with this pattern even in negative market regimes for the asset.
So it is true that in many assets there is a tendency to perform better during this period of the year, but it would be necessary to be very selective.
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Sell in May and go away?

Investing from Halloween to May

Conclusion

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