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This post blew up on Facebook WSB but was taken down due to "self-promotion" as I had posted account information to get it onto Reddit or to have someone with a decent Twitter presence post it. That being said I have noticed one thing since recreating this post: hourly candles seem to change the AccDist, which I cannot account for as I literally just learned about this yesterday. To my understanding it should remain the same regardless because it is supposed to track cash not momentum but again, smooth brain.submitted by WPL_Eightix to u/WPL_Eightix [link] [comments]
I wasn't initially an ape. I was a day-trader (by definition, not that I was good at it then or am now) that bought a few leaps slightly OTM for 9$ at the time. I went long on AMC around 14$, and have no plans of selling, because to me a perfect date was a burger, a beer, John Wick 2 and things I will never talk to my mother about - but I digress. Within three weeks my investment broke through all of my yearly goals and I was in the black. It was a bumpy ride, but I eventually found my way to Reddit, and so did my wife, meanwhile her boyfriend was just shouting at me to get a real job or to sell AMC. (some jokes should never die)
Brings me to today. I am determined to up my execution quality and define a strategy that suits me. To that end I was alphabetically sorting through "studies" on TD Ameritrade when I found what this DD is all about: The Accumulation/Distribution Line (AccDist).
The AccDist in thinkorswim(TOS) is: a study used to asses the cumulative flow of money into or out of a security. It is defined as the cumulative sum of the product of volume and Close Location Value. With that in mind, here are some charts for consideration on how AccDist works if it's new to you. (It was new to me as of about 6 hours ago).
Following info was grabbed from Market Watch and TOS 9.21.21
Charts all reflect 360day 4hour candles with AccDist underneath, here are some values:
Here we have a recently popular stock ticker: LCID, note the run up in February.
AccDist HIGH: 192M
AccDist LOW: -180M
Market Cap: 38.96B
Public Float: 528.56M
Average Volume: 19.11M
% of float shorted: 8.35%
Here is XELA, note the run up in February and again in July. Oddly the channel didn't drop nearly as much as the stock price. I think this is because some shorts were covered and the line represents natural movement.
AccDist HIGH: 233M
AccDist LOW: -300M
Market Cap: 269.36M
Public Float: 108.24M
Average Volume: 74.3M
% of float shorted: 12.40%
As a last example I picked every gamblers favorite: SPY. Note that SPY in the last 360 days has never been below 0, and that it runs in BILLIONS (I like the show), as opposed to the MILLIONS of its many underlings.
AccDist HIGH: 1.98B
AccDist LOW: 688M
Market Cap: N/A (lul)
Average Volume: 64.66M
Listing XELA volume as almost 10M higher than SPY. Suspect.
Hang with me a little longer we're almost there.
GME had a pretty nice run up in January.
AccDist HIGH: 198M
AccDist LOW: 25M
Market Cap: 14.7B
Public Float: 62.9M
Average Volume: 3.52M
% of float shorted: 12.40%
In the last 360 days GME has never had a negative AccDist. To me this indicates that there are more naked shorts in AMC.
Obviously I have saved my favorite for last.
AMC saw it's 360 day high in June. TOS lists its peak at 77.30$.
AccDist HIGH: 103M (January)
AccDist LOW: -902M (just before June run up where the AccDist peaked at -376M)
Market Cap: 20.68B
Public Float: 511.65M
Average Volume: 92.58M
% of float shorted: 18.75%
AMC has not had a positive AccDist since January. One might infer from the AccDist that, well shit quite literally AMC should be a negative stock in value because the chart indicates that the stock sits around -600M cash inflow. This is my confirmation that the shorts are well beyond % of shorts currently reported.
Historically when AMC gets to lows on the AccDist it bounces, and it bounces harder than, well, without getting NSFW, let's just say it bounces.
Here are some historical values:
(recommend some Juicy J - Bounce It, just find myself saying "Bounce It" while doing this)
Exit strategies and price targets have been so unclear, 2k, 5k, 10k, 100k , and so on.... I am only here to tell you what I am thinking and that's going to be hard to say while as I am typing this the AccDist is currently reading -781M on the 360 day 4 hour chart. Pulling up the one day one year chart, on 1.21.21 to 1.27.21 cash flow was more than 503M and the price increased from a high of $3.06 to a high of $20.36.
To quote our favorite MSM personality, Jim Cramer, "If you short AMC stock, you're an idiot." Clock is right twice a day amiright?
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