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- On On Tues. 6 Dec. a small amount of monies was set to be released to some in Tier 3, while a week later on Tues. 13 Dec. Tier 3 could be fully liquid. …a High Up Source.
- Redemption Centers should get notified tomorrow Wed. 6 Dec. on their schedules. …Bruce
- A German source said we should see the Iraqi Dinar International rate on the Forex after 12:01 am tonight. …Bruce
- Tier 4B should be notified to set appointments sometime on Wed. 7 Dec. for exchanges to begin on Thurs. 8 Dec. If we don’t get notified Wed. we should get notified Thurs and begin Thurs. …Bruce
- On Thurs. 8 Dec. is the date that all monies flow in to where they are supposed to be such as Bond Holders, Bond Sellers, Farm Accounts, CMKX, etc. …Bruce
- On Tues. 6 Dec. a small amount of monies was set to be released to some in Tier 3, while a week later on Tues. 13 Dec. Tier 3 could be fully liquid. …a High Up Source.
- Tier 4B could be notified of appointment setting at any time from now to Jan. 2023. …Dr. Tom
Lost tribes of Israel and space Nazis come out of closet as Satanic rule collapses. There can be no doubt the planet earth is going through changes that are beyond biblical in proportion. That is why an ancient secret society -with roots going back to the biblical Jacob in Egypt- as well as space Nazis on flying saucers are coming out of the closet. This is happening because an esoteric war that has been raging for thousands of years is coming to an end. What we are witnessing is an end to millennia of Satanic rule on this planet.
Let us start with events in China because they hold the key to so much else that is happening and is about to happen. China was touted by top Satanist Klaus Schwab Rothschild (Rothschild=red shield of satan) as the model for their digital human animal farm New World Order. he plan the Satanists had for this planet was to genetically modify every human into farm animal-type obedience, microchip their brains and control every aspect of their lives through constant, intrusive digital surveillance. In other words, literally, turn the planet into a giant human farm. [China implemented all this, blah, blah blah]
Well, the Satanists underestimated the Chinese. Chinese history shows that people will put up with a lot, but, when a certain point is reached, they simultaneously explode into rebellion. That is exactly what happened last week after Asian secret societies mobilized. First, top enforcer and former Chinese President Jiang Zemin died suddenly “after a long illness.” Following that, police and soldiers moved in and started dismantling PCR testing facilities and arresting the white-suited zombie enforcers.
The Asian secret societies are also aware the so-called pandemic was a combination of a 5G electromagnetic attack with the release of viruses by Rothschild-controlled laboratories in China. It is no coincidence that Klaus Schwab Rothschild was spotted at the Waldorf Astoria hotel in Washington DC last week.
Putin And Dolly Parton Slap Down Satan As West Realizes Russia Will Never Run Out Of Ammunition. An intriguing new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first noting President Putin signed into law a bill passed unanimously by the Russian Parliament completely banning LGBTQ propaganda of nontraditional sexual relations, gender reassignment and pedophilia on social networks, in the mass media, films and advertisements, says at near the exact same time this bill was signed into law yesterday, ...but joining President Putin to defend Christianity against socialist Western colonial demonic ideology, world-renowned American music legend Dolly Parton performed her hit song “Go to Hell” during a leftist NBC special programme, where she rebuked the Devil on prime-time television, proclaiming “Satan is real” and warning “He is trying to destroy everything good and beautiful”. [And a bunch of stuff about Western colonial bloodlust & Russia wonderfulness]
Inside Biden’s Billion Dollar, Drunken Gala Dinner [for French President Macron]. Thursday night’s liberal lollapalooza at Tyler Perry Studios’ “White House” was a farrago of drunkenness, paranoia, chicanery, pomposity, and alcohol-fueled rage toward Donald Trump and Elon Musk...Pelosi was tipsy when she arrived at the feast and sauntered to an open bar replete with scintillating bottles of pricey liquor–Clase Azul tequila, 50-year-old Appleton Estate Rum, Macallan Sherry Oak whiskey, and, to top it off, Chateau Margaux grand vin. Chilled decanters of 1959 Dom Perignon sat in ice buckets at every dinner table. As guests donned in tuxedos or ballroom gowns funneled inside the imitation White House, Pelosi lingered at the bar, heartily sampling various liquors while the bartender stared at her in dazed bewilderment...Meanwhile, Pelosi continued indulging in drink and, therefore, losing her inhibitions. At one point in the evening, she made a comment so cringeworthy that those within earshot feigned deafness or simply distanced themselves. Her speech slurred, she said she had “the best and biggest boobs in the House, better even than,” she added with distaste, “AOCs or MTGs.”...Later in the evening a splenetic, irascible Biden was overheard saying that “I need my candy,” after which his personal physician, Dr. Kevin O’Conner, escorted him from the banquet hall to a private room. Biden reappeared 20 minutes afterward, rejuvenated and refreshed, and loquaciously touted his “accomplishments” to rapturous applause. “Candy is Biden’s codeword for Adrenochrome,” our source said. “He was going downhill, so got his shot or infusion, then came back to serenade his sympathetic audience.
[As previously reported, Pelosi was arrested after the banquet & hauled off to Gitmo] AG sources told Real Raw News Saturday morning that Pelosi has been charged with multiple counts of treason and seditious conspiracy—coincidentally, perhaps, the very same charges she told the Department of Justice to level against Oath Keeper Stewart Rhodes, [also] The United States Navy Judge Advocate General’s Corps has released the name of a Hollywood producer who was arrested after attending the criminal Biden regime’s banquet last Thursday evening. That person is Eli Roth, an American film director, screenwriter, producer, and actor whose name is synonymous with torture-porn: Roth is best known for directing the film Hostel, a ghoulish fright-fest in which attractive, scantily clad young women lure horny college boys to an industrial warehouse owned by a secret society...According to a military arrest warrant reviewed by RRN, Roth’s snuff flicks weren’t entirely fictional. The document alleges that Roth sought to make his films as realistic as possible; Before principal filming began on Hostel, Cabin Fever, and The Green Inferno, Roth rented property in Bilisht, Albania, and used his underworld connections to hire members of the Albanian mafia to torture and murder people in ways that would eventually appear in the films.
Not to be confused with the Ark of the Covenant, which houses the two stone slabs of the Ten Commandments, the Ark of Gabriel, which is not mentioned in the Christian Bible, is a mysterious device, a secret weapon that many people are only beginning to learn about. Its legend has been perpetuated by the havoc it has wreaked over the centuries, as well as its potential to be unleashed upon the world.In other news
Wild rumours that a fabled device or weapon called the “Ark of Gabriel” has been found under the Masjid al-Haram Mosque – the holiest site in Islam – are sweeping across the darker corners of the internet.
Legend tells the Archangel Gabriel – who told the Virgin Mary she would give birth to Jesus and dictated the Koran to the Prophet Muhammed – also entrusted an ark or box of “immense power” to the founder of the Muslim faith.
Muhammed was told to bury the ark in a shrine at a “place of worship” – for it to be brought out as the end of the world approaches.
Paranoid survivalists believe Saudi Arabia has uncovered the ark during a major construction project at the Grand Mosque – and handed it to the Russians.
They claim the Russian military is taking the ark to the Antarctic – possibly to a former Nazi UFO base.
...[An] attempt to remove the ark on September 24 caused a massive “plasma emission” that resulted in more than 4,000 deaths – Sorcha Faal claims. More than 2,000 were indeed killed in Mecca on that date – but the deaths were blamed on a stampede during the Hajj pilgrimage...
On hearing the news, Russian president Vladimir Putin reportedly dispatched the naval research vessel Admiral Vladimisky to collect the ark from the Saudi port city of Jeddah – the gateway to Mecca – and take it to the Antarctic. Two Russian battle satellites were launched to protect the Admiral Vladimisky and its precious cargo and a fleet of Russian warships, a salvage tug and oil tanker – carrying out manoeuvres in the Indian Ocean – have been ordered to rendezvous with it.
JFK Jr.: Most Convincing Photograph That He’s Still Alive And Is Q, Is This!! For me this is the most convincing photo proof that JFK Jr. is still alive. Notice a portion of the US military and others not in uniform… there’s the grey haired fella at the bottom of the Q wearing a dark suit… JFK Jr.? This is a photo of JFK Jr. with the Q team? Sure seems like it don’t it. This photo needs to be shared widely… it needs to be debated… it needs widespread presence on social media. Are we all in this together or what? I do believe so. It’s time we got more familiar with those protecting us.
The people in this photograph are the masterminds and higher levels of the greatest military intel drop in the history of the world, with the founder and original editor of George Magazine… who knew he would have to go away, to be part of the secret mission to not only save America, but also save humanity.
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INTRODUCTIONAs Web3 becomes more and more popular, the industry is seeing an increase in interest from both retail users and institutions. The trustless nature of blockchain technology allows multiple parties involved in a transaction to execute with 100% guarantees for each side once conditions are met. That creates enormous opportunities for new business cases to be developed. At the time of writing, decentralized finance’s (DeFi) total value locked (TVL) is $41 billion, according to DefiLlama,
Decentralized finance (DeFi) total value locked (TVL) (Source).
Blockchain oracles have been in the Web3 space since 2015, bridging the gap between deterministic siloed blockchains and probabilistic real-world data, allowing multiple use cases on the blockchain that could not have been possible otherwise. By design dApps are supposed to be trustless, always running in the way they were designed. Oracles are a critical piece of the infrastructure ensuring that data can be trusted before it reaches the blockchain. For the smart contracts that rely on external data, execution oracles have to be fast, reliable, decentralized, and resistant to any type of attack.
The purpose of this report is to dive deeper into oracles’ value, identify bottlenecks, explore innovations in the space, and provide recommendations on designing the best oracle setup to ensure optimal protocol performance with the most accurate data feeds in the shortest time.
What Is a Blockchain Oracle?First, let’s do a quick recap on blockchain oracles. Oracles are decentralized applications that gather, validate, and deliver off-chain data to smart contracts on the blockchain. Similarly, they can do the same for delivering on-chain data to off-chain systems. Oracles are middleware connecting smart contracts on blockchains to off-chain data providers, sources and systems. Without oracles, smart contract applications would be limited to executing using only on-chain data.
If an oracle is corrupted, the correctness of the result of the execution of the smart contract will be compromised, potentially causing enormous losses. Blockchain oracles are a crucial part of the ecosystem.
Flash loan attacks, orchestrated oracle manipulation, and lengthy latency during extremely volatile times add up to the complexity of the infrastructure a dApp has to monitor when building its protocols.
Latency and FrequencyLatency and frequency are two key parameters that determine the performance of an oracle, and a formula can be more complex taking multiple parameters into consideration.
Latency is the time taken for an off-chain data feed to be available to use for a smart contract on-chain after triggering a condition that requires off-chain data with a transaction. Latency can also be used in the context of data freshness, i.e., how old the last data feed is prior to being published on-chain. The latency formula depends on multiple factors.
Frequency is how often the price is updated on a blockchain. In other words, how often the price update triggers (Deviation Threshold, Heartbeat Threshold or requester contract) publishing a new price. In a highly volatile market, the frequency of updates might be bigger because the triggering parameter such as the Deviation Threshold moves more often. The more frequent, almost real-time updates, especially during times of high volatility might contribute to network congestion if the blockchain throughput is low.
Oracle RelayersA relayer is a general term for a third party that relays some information from one party to another. In the context of blockchain, a relayer submits a user’s transaction to the blockchain network on their behalf and pays the associated gas fee. Oracles usually operate across multiple blockchains and one option for oracle architecture to achieve cross-chain interoperability is to use a third-party relayer design to transmit data across blockchains.
Relayers in oracle design can be used to bridge reported data to other blockchains (Source).
Some potential drawbacks to using relayer architecture are increased latency (users must wait for data to first be delivered to the primary blockchain, then they must wait for it to be bridged to a secondary blockchain or Layer2 network) and responsiveness, as the the relay model requires a set of highly available and incentivized third-party relayers to bridge oracle data from one chain to another.
Data Sources/PublishersData sources are third parties that have access to the information in real-time, and can be divided into various categories
METHODOLOGYA qualitative data collection approach has been used to further deep dive into the existing oracle landscape. A semi-structured interview for the case study was selected to gather information about oracle use by the ten largest DeFi protocols in the market accounting for hundreds of millions of TVL.
All Chainlink, Binance Oracle, Pyth Network and Band Protocol documentation in service of the above-mentioned protocols has been reviewed and analyzed as a part of the case study.
DATA COLLECTIONA semi-structured interview was selected to gather information about oracle use by various DeFi protocols in the market. Participants were selected based on their TVL and trading volume.
The purpose of this paper is to identify and analyze the bottlenecks in the industry, as well as discover new options and provide recommendations on oracle use.
The limitations of the case study: CTOs and lead engineers of the largest subset of DeFi protocols were selected to interview. Smaller DeFi lending and borrowing protocols and small DEXs were not included. The list of questions for the interview is provided below.
VALIDATION THROUGH CASE STUDIESThe results from the survey using keywords analysis and transcribed data provided insights on how DeFi protocols are using oracles, what the limitations and challenges are, and sheds the light on how DeFi protocols mitigate risks relative to the industry.
ORACLE TYPESThe very first blockchain oracle was centralized and served the industry well by supplying the necessary data to the blockchain. But as the industry matured, different oracle designs emerged to solve myriad issues with the centralized model. Analysis of documentation from a variety of oracle providers indicate that their designs vary depending on multiple parameters (eth source):
1. Number of Data Sources. Oracles that are connected to multiple sources and generate the average price from different sources are called aggregated price oracles. For example, Chainlink, Binance Oracle, Pyth Network, Band Protocol are all aggregated price feed oracles as compared to Uniswap which is a single source oracle.
2. Location of Data Source. Data sources for oracles can be on-chain or off-chain. Some of the largest off-chain data providers are the largest CEXsconnected through APIs to oracles nodes where data is pulled, validated, signed, and published on-chain. The largest on-chain data sources are DEXs such as PancakeSwap for BNB chain and Uniswap for Ethereum. DEXs provide prices based on the invariant curve exchange rate for cryptocurrency pairs.
3. Centralized or Decentralized. Oracles are classified as centralized or decentralized depending on their trust model and consensus mechanism. One of the very first oracles in the space on Ethereum called Provable (formerly Oraclize) is a centralized oracle provider but now most are decentralized. .
4. Push or Pull. Oracles that automatically update cryptocurrency prices on chain are called push oracles and oracles that need an active request to update cryptocurrency prices are called pull oracles. Push oracles publish prices on-chain when triggered by one of two indicators:
Deviation Threshold: If the cryptocurrency price is different from the previous price by more than 0.1% -1% (varies for different pairs) then the push oracle is activated to update the price on-chain.
Heartbeat Threshold: If the cryptocurrency price doesn’t change within 1-10 minutes (depending on the parameters set) then the push oracle is activated to update the price on-chain.
5. Type of Data Source. Oracles can specialize in many types of data including cryptocurrency prices, commodities prices, FX prices, trade, weather, sports outcomes and statistics, identity, DNS lookups, and more.
TWAP ORACLESWhile most of the oracles in the space are off-chain and decentralized, time-weighted average price (TWAP) oracles are different. TWAP oracles give the average price of a token for a determined period of time versus oracles that provide mean or weighted average prices aggregated from multiple data sources at a given moment. TWAP oracles are based on DEX prices and use the exchange rate of token A to token B as the price-determining factor. DEXs are the only source of truth for the price of the tokens that are not listed and traded on larger exchanges and there are no other providers available. For example, Uniswap TWAP V2.
The time-weighted average price (TWAP) calculation methodology supported by the Uniswap V2 automatic market maker (AMM) (Source).
A TWAP oracle has several limitations. It is a lagging indicator, so if a cryptocurrency price is volatile, the TWAP will not accurately reflect the price, which results in a higher risk of under-collateralization. TWAP oracles pull their price data from a single source only, making it more likely that low-cap asset prices off of a particular DEX are not representative of the broader market price. TWAP oracles do not provide data about off-chain trading pairs and they are not a scalable solution that mirrors the design of the underlying protocols that they service.
That said, TWAP oracles do have an unspoken benefit: they are the only source of price feeds for high-risk, low-cap tokens. Protocols that are built around isolated trading low cap tokens benefit from having access to a TWAP oracle but, as mentioned previously, the data in question is subject to natural (or malicious) market manipulation and must be used with caution.
At the time of the writing, Uniswap TWAP oracle team was working on researching on other improvements such as Time Weight Median Price (TWMP), wide-range liquidity, and limit orders to be introduced to Uniswap TWAP v.3.
Uniswap time weighted average price (TWAP) oracle total value secured (TVS) November 2022 (Source).
ORACLES OVERVIEWCurrently, there are four major market participants in the oracle space:
Chainlink total value secured (TVS) (Source).
Chainlink is one of the largest oracle solutions in the market. It was established in 2017 and has been a source of truth for over 1500 dApps across 15 blockchains. At the time of this writing, the Total Value Secured by Chainlink was approximately $9.4 billion.
Chainlink is an off-chain decentralized oracle network that serves over 200 pairs on Ethereum and more than 100 pairs on the BNB chain. Chainlink data expands far outside of crypto pricing offerings and includes weather data, sports data, FX and commodities.
Chainlink has additional features such as data automation, VRF/RNG, Proof of Reserve, NFT price feeds, and Cross-chain interoperability protocol. Also, dApps can access any external data through AnyAPI adaptors.
Pyth Network total value secured (TVS) (Source).
Pyth Network was launched in 2021 and is the first oracle to popularize the pull mechanism for price feed updates. Currently, more than 70 projects are deployed to use Pyth Network which uses its own network to make sure the underlying blockchain does not affect the reliability of the oracle and that it is always running.
Pyth Network is a decentralized off-chain aggregate price oracle that publishes data off-chain 2-3 times per second for everyone to read it. That data is published on-chain only after the request for a price contract has been made. The gas fee is paid by whoever first called the price update and it is available for the rest to use cost-free once on-chain. End-users of Pyth data can elect to pay data fees to gain protection against a potential oracle failure.
Pyth Network uses a weighted average aggregate price coming from multiple sources, some of them exclusive. Pyth Data Providers are fully transparent and available to read.
Binance OracleBinance Oracle was launched in October 2022 after being in design and production for more than nine months. Binance Oracle has implemented a few modifications to create more resilient and faster push oracles. At the time of this writing, Binance Oracle is deployed to the beta testnet and has onboarded its first customers.
A few significant improvements to Binance’s oracle design were added to make the price feeds faster and more secure:
Band Protocol’s total value secured (TVS) (Source).
Band Protocol is a Cosmos-based oracle supporting 20 blockchains through the inter-blockchain protocol (IBC), a scalable oracle that has its own network to process all data. Band Protocol is also a decentralized off-chain aggregator oracle supporting more than 90 crypto symbols and 12 forex trading pairs.
Band Protocol has built its own relayer network and is able to ensure fast cross-chain communication to publish data to the different blockchains using the IBC bridge.
Other Oracle Designs: API3API3 is moving from the third-party oracle model to the first-party data providers directly on-chain. An off-chain first-party oracle connects data from any API to a smart contract through Airnode. DAO-governed, Airnode is Web3 middleware that connects any web API directly to any blockchain application. Airnodes are a piece of cloud service infrastructure that allow data providers to deploy their existing Web2 API onto the blockchain, creating what API3 calls a dAPI (Decentralized API).
Airnode Web3 middleware connects any web API directly to any blockchain application (Source).
The API3 team manages the endpoints and a multi-sig mechanism is used for extra security signing transactions. API3 can also provide individual data sets for users that require full control over the curation of the data feeds they use.
Other Oracles Designs: Umbrella NetworkUmbrella is a Layer2 oracle built on a sidechain. Umbrella solves the scalability problem in oracles by leveraging a Layer2 solution and utilizes Merkle trees for batching transactions to save on gas fees.
Umbrella leverages a Layer2 solution and utilizes Merkle trees for batching transactions (Source).
NEW DEVELOPMENTS AND TRENDSBlockchain oracles have been live since 2015 – the same year that Ethereum smart contracts were introduced – and have since gone through many iterations and improvements. A few new emerging trends in oracle use have been identified both during analyzing case studies and following emerging technologies.
Privacy, ZK Proofs, and OraclesPrivacy enabling zero-knowledge proofs (ZKP) are hot topics that have emerged over the course of 2021-2022, solving inherent blockchain problems like lack of confidentiality and inability to control private data. Blockchain oracles are no exception to this trend. The industry is seeking a solution to reveal and verify the truth without disclosing private information.
For example, Chainlink is working on a ZKP-based oracle solution called DECO, a privacy-preserving oracle protocol developed at Cornell University and later acquired by Chainlink. Oracle nodes can prove facts about data sourced from trusted servers without revealing the data on-chain, while also proving the source of the data since the TLS chain of custody is maintained.
One of DECO’s applications is a verifiable credential oracle that acts as a source of truth for biometric data and allows selective data disclosure paired with digital identity.
Oracle nodes can prove facts about data sourced from trusted servers without revealing the data on-chain.
ZK Cross Chain Messaging Through Oracle RelayersFor the average Web3 user the closest understanding of oracle is the bridge between Web2 real-world data and Web3 dApps. However, oracles can not only act as price or weather data feed providers but also can be used as a source of truth for inter-blockchain messaging itself.
A few prospective solutions are working on a ZK proof for cross-chain messaging where oracles act as a core part of the middleware to prove and verify that the data transmitted is true and can be trusted. An oracle node generates the ZK proof for the state of the smart contract so that data can be transferred across blockchains.
Latency Is Dead, Long Live LatencyThe fastest available data on-chain is necessary and widely used in the DeFi world however, DEX interviews revealed that there is no actual demand for the real-time speed of pushing price feeds – it has to be fast, but it doesn’t have to be ultra-fast. There are two different approaches to data delivery speed with respect to pull oracles:
Modifications to TWAPSome protocols developed their own implementations of TWAP oracles with added features such as using moving averages to smooth abrupt price movements. Others have built custom pools as an oracle on the AMM/DEX. TWAP oracles might see increased demand in the future if markets move towards decentralized exchanges, which may be more likely after recent market volatility in November 2022.
CONCLUSIONOracles are critical middleware infrastructure that enable myriad use cases for the blockchain. Competition amongst legacy oracle providers has pushed them to constantly innovate, add resiliency to the oracle ecosystem, and drive adoption for their services in new and better ways. Binance Oracle’s entrance into the space introduces a new player with enhanced speed and security.
While capital continues to flow to DEXs, the collapse of crypto markets in November 2022 may delay the adoption of further advances in oracle development such as verified credentials and ZK cross chain messaging. Nevertheless, oracle innovation continues to unfold, bringing ever more utility to blockchain over time.
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My dad has been running into an issue recently with Chrome, he says for the past several weeks. He usually opens Chrome, checks email, looks at his boomer humor sites, sports sites, just general browsing around. All in all, pretty basic stuff. But when he closes the main Chrome window that he has been using, he will find that multiple new Chrome windows have been opened behind it. These new windows were opened behind the main Chrome window he was using, so he doesn't even notice them until he closes the main window. The windows that are opened don't seem to be sites that are nefarious or harmful, but they also don't look like sites that he would have clicked on or gone to on his own while browsing around.submitted by LeGhostWithLeMost to chrome [link] [comments]
My dad has had issues like this before, usually because he doesn't watch what he clicks and winds up installing some sort of harmless if annoying extension or malware. I did a malware check in Chrome settings, confirmed that popups were disabled, didn't see any suspicious looking extensions, etc. I'm not sure what else I can check for.
This is a screenshot from this morning showing all of the windows that were created and popped up BEHIND his main browsing window, so he doesn't even know these exist until he closes the main window. Is this known behavior for a particular piece of malware or bad extension somewhere?
AHHH! Just as I was typing this, another window popped up! It just came out of nowhere. It wasn't associated with clicking a link or anything. It looks like as long as a least ONE Chrome window is open, something is causing new windows to get created and opened every so often.
https://preview.redd.it/ebwfxaalgzt91.png?width=1208&format=png&auto=webp&s=abefbd2a893f5afeb60954f5525aa4fd536c086dsubmitted by catbulliesdog to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
Up about ~$14000 total as of this week in realized and unrealized gains. A less than impressive gain since my last update (was up about ~$12000 realized and unrealized) but whatever the hell it was that happened on CPI day did a number on me. Since many people appear to be having issues with images on Reddit lately, in addition to the above, here's the current positions written out.
I've significantly rebalanced my positions, the account I was using for holding shares has since been switched over to income generating energy plays on oil, natural gas, and uranium. I've also dumped a lot of my index shorts to open a little under $8000 in Apple and Amazon puts.
The food shortage plays aren't looking great, the harvest came in worse than expected this fall, but I may have gotten the timing for the pricing in of that bad harvest wrong. Will probably look to roll out and add to the agricultural positions to next spring/summer. Ag ETF positions omitted from picture because AutoMod didn't like them.
C0RN - 27.60 (last update 26.91)
10 2/17/23 31c
W3AT - 8.75 (last update 8.82)
10 1/20/23 17c
20 1/20/23 18c
S0YB - 26.46 (last update 26.88)
10 11/18 29c
10 2/17/23 29c
SPXS - 28.87 (last update 27.14)
8 11/4 30c
SPXU - 21.92
11 12/16 21c
SPY - 357.63 (last update 367.95)
4 11/18 330p
7 12/16 300p
4 3/17/23 255p
4 1/19/24 210p
AAPL - 138.83
100 12/16 80p
100 12/16 70p
50 6/16 60p
AMZN - 106.90
50 12/16 65p
Link to the post laying out my general thesis on this play. And since this somehow became a thing in the comments of that post - yeah, that's not a straight screenshot of any of my brokerage accounts, I put the images from Schwab, Fidelity, and ETrade together into one picture on MS Paint because I've got no interest in sharing my full accounts or account numbers with the internet.
I'm not a fan of diamond handing options, blew up my account once like that, now I take profits. The italicized positions are new since last update, and were bought with profits from closing stuff.
I added the Apple and Amazon shorts because they're the two shittiest, most overpriced companies in the market, along with Tesla (tessie is going to die hard and fast once the HF's and institutions that are long on it start blowing up). Apple's consumer graph looks incredibly similar to Nike's, and well, look what happened after their last ER. Amazon is currently a great company (AWS) tied to a shitberg of money losing (everything else AMZN does). Jassy was a horrifically bad choice to head up Amazon as a whole because he doesn't understand what their marketplace's competitive advantage actually is or how it's being destroyed. Price target on AAPL = 45ish, on AMZN 25ish. Their PE's are 23 and 96 respectively. Both AAPL and AMZN also currently have Unionizing issues that are just going to keep increasing. Sooner or later TSLA will get unionized as well, at least at the factories.
I'd like to have more Amazon and any Tesla short positions, but right now I can't find a good entry on them, so I'll keep waiting until I do.
My optimistic case for global harvests is now -20%. Every international analysis I've looked at points to excess production from countries that don't have it to make up the shortfall. Supposedly the US is/has prepared a brief on just how bad it is, and that is not available to the public. I am no longer sure this will be priced in before my current options expire. Looking at potentially rolling my current ones out about 6 months, will add to them if I do.
As per one of my previous DD's, we're now seeing increased migration and violence around the world, with a second competing currency bloc forming primarily around Russia and China. There are some other countries that get lumped in with that, but I'm doubtful they all stick, given the tensions between many of them.
I'll take a second to recommend u/Peruvian_Bull 's DD posts on the collapse of the dollar as global reserve currency, there has been absolute chaos and carnage in the Forex markets lately and his stuff from over a year ago is pretty much playing out perfectly.
China's economy is basically a zombie being propped up by threats of violence to banking and real estate executives and local government officials. Once the China National Party Congress meeting ends (runs from 10/16 though 10/22) the wheels probably come off in a very, very bad way.
Tehran continues to have increasing protests after the Basij (religious police, everyone hates them) murdered a 22 year old woman for not wearing a hijab. Food prices are now higher than they were during the Arab Spring. These protests aren't as big of a deal as some in the west want to pretend, but they're a bigger deal and have more popular support than you'd think from the press coverage (lack) on them. Food prices and inflation are high enough this could easily take a wild turn very unexpectedly and very fast in Iran/KSA/Iraq/Syria/Egypt. All of these countries have large populations of young men and the temperature will get very hot in them in a couple of months. (the basic formula for societal unrest is lots of young men + poor job/future prospects + hot weather + high prices = violence)
Russia continues to experience issues with it's plan to draft people, and continues losing in Ukraine. Western leaders appear to be pulling a repeat of the Treaty of Versailles mistakes of just thinking they can grind a country down indefinitely instead of giving them a way out. The Ukrainian provinces currently being fought over were in open rebellion/civil war for years before Russia invaded, and would make some nice "buffer states" in any peace deal. Russia's conventional army is basically gone at this point, going forwards they'll be fighting asymmetrically with cyber attacks and hits on infrastructure leading to spikes in energy prices or big drops in markets.
India has halted Rice exports, after shutting down Wheat exports earlier this summer. California's Rice crop is, to put it mildly, toast. The poorest people eat rice - this one is going to get bad going forward.
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Where are we going today, Martians? 🚀🚀🚀submitted by Hiei80 to dogelon [link] [comments]
Will we stick to our course or will we brave rough weather? ❄️
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🏃♀️ The only way out, is through:
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