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new to forex but want to convert GBP to USD due to the prices falling, should I?
I'm new to this, I'm in the UK and the falling pound compared to the USD is brutal. submitted by Captainmorgan696969 to Forex [link] [comments]
I have a duel currency account and the best rate from a broker I can get is about 1.221 to 1.224
I have looked at multiple forcasts and they look like going to fall even more to the point of 1.06 USD to the pound in the near future.
I know these forcasts are far from 100 percent accurate.
But I often buy things from China and other nations that deal in USD mostly.
I feel the pound is falling and I want some type of safe haven so my savings dontbfak so gardbas I'm planning to leave the UK for good in 2024 or 2025
Do you think the GBP has fallen enough already so it's not worth exchanging to USD or do you guys think it's still worth it.
Thanks for helping a newbie
Get Real-Time and Historical BCH Rates With the Bitcoin.com Price Converter - ForexTV.com
Strange Things Volume II: Triffin's Dilemma and The Dollar Milkshake
| || |As the Fed begins their journey into a deflationary blizzard, they are beginning to break markets across the globe. As the World Reserve Currency, over 60% of all international trade is done in Dollars, and USDs are the largest Foreign Exchange (Forex) holdings by far for global central banks. Now all foreign currencies are crashing against the Dollar as the vicious feedback loops of Triffin’s Dilemma come home to roost. The Dollar Milkshake has begun. The Fed, knowingly or unknowingly, has walked into this trap- and now they find themselves caught underneath the Sword of Damocles, with no way out… submitted by peruvian_bull to Superstonk [link] [comments]
Sword Of Damocles
“The famed “sword of Damocles” dates back to an ancient moral parable popularized by the Roman philosopher Cicero in his 45 B.C. book “Tusculan Disputations.” Cicero’s version of the tale centers on Dionysius II, a tyrannical king who once ruled over the Sicilian city of Syracuse during the fourth and fifth centuries B.C.
Though rich and powerful, Dionysius was supremely unhappy. His iron-fisted rule had made him many enemies, and he was tormented by fears of assassination—so much so that he slept in a bedchamber surrounded by a moat and only trusted his daughters to shave his beard with a razor.
As Cicero tells it, the king’s dissatisfaction came to a head one day after a court flatterer named Damocles showered him with compliments and remarked how blissful his life must be. “Since this life delights you,” an annoyed Dionysius replied, “do you wish to taste it yourself and make a trial of my good fortune?” When Damocles agreed, Dionysius seated him on a golden couch and ordered a host of servants wait on him. He was treated to succulent cuts of meat and lavished with scented perfumes and ointments. Damocles couldn’t believe his luck, but just as he was starting to enjoy the life of a king, he noticed that Dionysius had also hung a razor-sharp sword from the ceiling. It was positioned over Damocles’ head, suspended only by a single strand of horsehair. From then on, the courtier’s fear for his life made it impossible for him to savor the opulence of the feast or enjoy the servants. After casting several nervous glances at the blade dangling above him, he asked to be excused, saying he no longer wished to be so fortunate.”
Damocles’ story is a cautionary tale of being careful of what you wish for- Those who strive for power often unknowingly create the very systems that lead to their own eventual downfall. The Sword is often used as a metaphor for a looming danger; a hidden trap that can obliterate those unaware of the great risk that hegemony brings. Heavy lies the head which wears the crown.
There are several Swords of Damocles hanging over the world today, but the one least understood and least believed until now is Triffin’s Dilemma, which lays the bedrock for the Dollar Milkshake Theory. I’ve already written extensively about Triffin’s Dilemma around a year ago in Part 1.5 and Part 4.3 of my Dollar Endgame Series, but let’s recap again.
Here’s a great summary- read both sides of the dilemma:
Triffin's Dilemma Summarized
(Seriously, stop here and go back and read Part 1.5 and Part 4.3 Do it!)
Essentially, Triffin noted that there was a fundamental flaw in the system: by virtue of the fact that the United States is a World Reserve Currency holder, the global financial system has built in GLOBAL demand for Dollars. No other fiat currency has this.
How is this demand remedied? With supply of course! The United States thus is forced to run current account deficits
- meaning it must send more dollars out into the world than it receives on a net basis. This has several implications, which again, I already outlined- but I will list in summary format below:
- The United States has to be a net importer, ie it must run trade deficits, in order to supply the world with dollars. Remember, dollars and goods are opposite sides of the same equation, so a greater trade deficits means that more dollars are flowing out to the world.
- (This will devastate US domestic manufacturing, causing political/social/economic issues at home.)
- These dollars flow outwards into the global economy, and are picked up by institutions in a variety of ways.
- First, foreign central banks will have to hold dollars as Foreign Exchange Reserves to defend their currency in case of attack on the Forex markets. This was demonstrated during the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98, when the Thai Baht, Malaysian Ringgit, and Philippine Peso (among other East Asian currencies) plunged against the Dollar. Their central banks attempted to defend the pegs but they failed.
- Second, companies will need Dollars for trade- as the USD makes up over 60% of global trade volume, and has the deepest and most liquid forex market by far, even small firms that need to transact cross border trade will have to acquire USDs in order to operate. When South Africa and Chile trade, they don’t want to use Mexican Pesos or Korean Won- they want Dollars.
- Foreign governments need dollars. There are several countries already who have adopted the Dollar as a replacement for their own currency- Ecuador and Zimbabwe being prime examples. There’s a full list here.
- Third world governments that don’t fully adopt dollars as their own currencies will still use them to borrow. Argentina has 70% of it’s debt denominated in dollars and Indonesia has 30%, for example. Dollar-denominated debt will build up overseas.
The example I gave in Part 1.5 was that of Liberia, a small West African Nation looking to enter global trade. Needing to hold dollars as part of their exchange reserves, the Liberian Central Bank begins buying USDs on the open market. The process works in a similar fashion for large Liberian export companies.
Essentially, they print their own currency to buy Dollars. Wanting to earn interest on this massive cash hoard when it isn’t being used, they buy Treasuries and other US debt securities to get a yield.
As their domestic economy grows, their need and dependence on the Dollar grows as well. Their Central Bank builds up larger and larger hoards of Treasuries and Dollars. The entire thesis is that during times of crisis, they can sell the Treasuries for USD, and use the USDs to buy back their own currency on the market- supporting its value and therefore defending the peg.
This buying pressure on USDs and Treasuries confers a massive benefit to the United States-
The Exorbitant Privilege
This buildup of excess dollars ends up circulating overseas in banks, trade brokers, central banks, governments and companies. These overseas dollars are called the Eurodollar
system- a 2016 research paper
estimated the size to be around $13.8 Trillion USD. This system is not under official Federal Reserve jurisdiction so it is difficult to get accurate numbers on its size.
This means the Dollar is always artificially stronger than it should be- and during financial calamity, the dollar is a safe haven as there are guaranteed bidders. All this dollar denominated debt paired with the global need for dollars in trade creates strong and persistent dollar demand. Demand that MUST be satisfied. This creates systemic risk on a worldwide scale- an unforeseen Sword of Damocles that hangs above the global financial system. I’ve been trying to foreshadow this in my Dollar Endgame Series. Triffin’s Dilemma is the basis for the Dollar Milkshake Theory posited by Brent Johnson.
The Dollar Milkshake
Milkshake of Liquidity In 2021, Brent worked with RealVision to create a short summary of his thesis- the video can be found here. I should note that Brent has had this theory for years, dating back to 2018, when he first came on podcasts and interviews and laid out his theory (like this video, for example).
Here’s the summary below:
----- “A giant milkshake of liquidity has been created by global central banks with the dollar as its key ingredient - but if the dollar moves higher this milkshake will be sucked into the US creating a vicious spiral that could quickly destabilize financial markets. The US dollar is the bedrock of the world's financial system. It greases the wheels of global commerce and exchange- the availability of dollars, cost of dollars, and the level of the dollar itself each can have an outsized impact on economies and investment opportunities.
But more important than the absolute level or availability of dollars is the rate of change in the level of the dollar. If the level of the dollar moves too quickly and particularly if the level rises too fast then problems start popping up all over the place (foreign countries begin defaulting).
Today however many people are convinced that both the role of the Dollar is diminishing and the level of the dollar will only decline. People think that the US is printing so many dollars that the world will be awash with the greenback causing the value of the dollar to fall.
Now it's true that the US is printing a lot of dollars – but other countries are also printing their own currencies in similar amounts so in theory it should even out in terms of value. But the hidden issue is the difference in demand. Remember the global financial system is built on the US dollar which means even if they don't want them everybody still needs them and if you need something you don't really have much choice. (See DXY Index):
Although many countries like China are trying to reduce their reliance on dollar transactions this will be a very slow transition. In the meantime the risks of a currency or sovereign debt crisis continue to rise.
But now countries like China and Japan need dollars to buy copper from Australia so the Chinese and the Japanese owe dollars and Australia is getting paid in dollars.
Europe and Asia currently doing very limited amount of non-dollar transactions for oil so they still need dollars to buy oil from saudi and again dollars get hoovered up on both sides
Asia and Europe need dollars to buy soybeans from Brazil. This pulls in yet more dollars - everybody needs dollars for trade invoices, central bank currency reserves and servicing massive cross-border dollar denominated debts of governments and corporations outside the USA.
And the dollar-denominated debt is key- if they don't service their debts or walk away from their dollar debts their funding costs rise putting great financial pressure on their domestic economies. Not only that, it can lead to a credit contraction and a rapid tightening of dollar supply.
The US is happy with the reliance on the greenback they own the settlement system which benefits the US banks who process all the dollars and act as gatekeepers to the Dollar system they police and control the access to the system which benefits the US military machine where defense spending is in excess of any other country so naturally the US benefits from the massive volumes of dollar usage.
Other countries have naturally been grumbling about being held hostage to the situation but the choices are limited. What it does mean is that dollars need to be constantly sucked out of the USA because other countries all over the world need them to do business and of course the more people there are who need and want those dollars the more is the pressure on the price of dollars to go up. In fact, global demand is so high that the supply of dollars is just not enough to keep up, even with the US continually printing money. This is why we haven't seen consistently rising US inflation despite so many QE and stimulus programs since the global financial crisis in 2008.
But, the real risk comes when other economies start to slow down or when the US starts to grow relative to the other economies. If there is relatively less economic activity elsewhere in the world then there are fewer dollars in global circulation for others to use in their daily business and of course if there are fewer in circulation then the price goes up as people chase that dwindling source of dollars.
Which is terrible for countries that are slowing down because just when they are suffering economically they still need to pay for many goods in dollars and they still need to service their debts which of course are often in dollars too.
So the vortex begins or as we like to say the dollar milkshake- As the level of the dollar rises the rest of the world needs to print more and more of its own currency to then convert to dollars to pay for goods and to service its dollar debt this means the dollar just keeps on rising in response many countries will be forced to devalue their own currencies so of course the dollar rises again and this puts a huge strain on the global system.
(see the charts below:) JPY/USD
To make matters worse in this environment the US looks like an attractive safe haven so the US ends up sucking in the capital from the rest of the world-the dollar rises again. Pretty soon you have a full-scale sovereign bond and currency crisis.
We're now into that final napalm run that sees the dollar and dollar assets accelerate even higher and this completely undermines global markets. Central banks try to prevent disorderly moves, but the global markets are bigger and the momentum unstoppable once it takes hold. And that is the risk that very few people see coming but that everyone should have a hedge against - when the US sucks up the dollar milkshake, bad things are going to happen.
Worst of all there's no alternatives- what are you going to use-- Chinese Yuan? Japanese Yen? the Euro?? Now, like it or not we're stuck with a dollar underpinning the global financial system.” —------------- Why is it playing out now, in real time?? It all leads back to a tweet I made in a thread on September 16th.
Tweet Thread about the Yuan
The Fed, rushing to avoid a financial crisis in March 2020, printed trillions. This spurred inflation, which they then swore to fight. Thus they began hiking interest rates on March 16th, and began Quantitative Tightening this summer. QE had stopped- No new dollars were flowing out into a system which has a constant demand for them. Worse yet, they were hiking completely blind- Although the Fed is very far behind the curve, (meaning they are hiking far too late to really combat inflation)- other countries are even farther behind!
Japan has rates currently at 0.00- 0.25%, and the Eurozone is at 1.25%. These central banks have barely begun hiking, and some even swear to keep them at the zero-bound. By hiking domestic interest rates above foreign ones, the Fed is incentivizing what are called carry trades.
Since there is a spread between the Yen and the Dollar in terms of interest rates, it thus is profitable for traders to borrow in Yen (shorting it essentially) and buy Dollars, which can earn 2.25% interest. The spread would be around 2%.
DXY rises, and the Yen falls, in a vicious feedback loop.
Thus capital flows out of Japan, and into the US. The US sucks up the Dollar Milkshake, draining global liquidity. As I’ve stated before, this has seriously dangerous implications for the global financial system.
For those of you who don’t believe this could be foreseen, check out the ending paragraphs of Dollar Endgame Part 4.3 - “Economic Warfare and the End of Bretton Woods
” published February 16, 2022:
Triffin's Dilemma is the Final Nail
What I’ve been attempting to do in my work is restate Triffins’ Dilemma, and by extension the Dollar Milkshake, in other terms- to come at the issue from different angles.
Currently the Fed is not printing money. Which is thus causing havoc in global trade (seen in the currency markets) because not enough dollars are flowing out to satisfy demand. The Fed must therefore restart QE unless it wants to spur a collapse on a global scale. Remember, all these foreign countries NEED to buy, borrow and trade in a currency that THEY CANNOT PRINT!
We do not have enough time here to go in depth on the Yen, Yuan, Pound or the Euro- all these currencies have different macro factors and trade factors which affect their currencies to a large degree. But the largest factor by FAR is Triffin’s Dilemma + the Dollar Milkshake, and their desperate need for dollars. That is why basically every fiat currency is collapsing versus the Dollar.
The Fed, knowingly or not, is basically in charge of the global financial system. They may shout, “We raise rates in the US to fight inflation, global consequences be damned!!” - But that’s a hell of a lot more difficult to follow when large G7 countries are in the early stages of a full blown currency crisis. The most serious implication is that the Fed is responsible for supplying dollars to everyone. When they raise rates, they trigger a margin call on the entire world. They need to bail them out by supplying them with fresh dollars to stabilize their currencies. In other words, the Fed has to run the loosest and most accommodative monetary policy worldwide- they must keep rates as low as possible, and print as much as possible, in order to keep the global financial system running.
If they don’t do that, sovereigns begin to blow up, like Japan did last week
and like England did on Wednesday
. And if the world’s financial system implodes, they must bail out not only the United States, but virtually every global central bank. This is the Sword of Damocles.
The money needed for this would be well in the dozens of trillions.
The Dollar Endgame Approaches…
(Many of you have been messaging me with questions, rebuttals or comments. I’ll do my best to answer some of the more poignant ones here.)
—----- Q: I’ve been reading your work, you keep saying the dollar is going to fall in value, and be inflated away. Now you’re switching sides and joining the dollar bull faction. Seems like you don’t know what you’re talking about!
A: You’re mixing up my statements. When I discuss the dollar losing value, I am referring to it falling in ABSOLUTE value, against goods and services produced in the real economy. This is what is called inflation. I made this call in 2021, and so far, it has proven right as inflation has accelerated.
The dollar gaining strength ONLY applies to foreign currency exchange markets (Forex)- remember, DXY, JPYUSD, and other currency pairs are RELATIVE indicators of value. Therefore, both JPY and USD can be falling in real terms (inflation) but if one is falling faster, then that one will lose value relative to the other. Also, Forex markets are correlated with, but not an exact match, for inflation.
I attempted to foreshadow the entire dollar bull thesis in the conclusion of Part 1 of the Dollar Endgame, posted well over a year ago-
Unraveling of the Currency Markets
I did not give an estimate on when this would happen, or how long DXY would be whipsawed upwards, because I truly do not know.
I do know that eventually the Fed will likely open up swap lines, flooding the Eurodollar market with fresh greenbacks and easing the dollar short squeeze. Then selling pressure will resume on the dollar. They would only likely do this when things get truly calamitous- and we are on our way towards getting there.
The US bond market is currently in dire straits, which matches the prediction of spiking interest rates. The 2yr Treasury is at 4.1%, it was at 3.9% just a few days ago. Only a matter of time until the selloff gets worse.
—------ Q: Foreign Central banks can find a way out. They can just use their reserves to buy back their own currency.
Sure, they can try that. It’ll work for a while- but what happens once they run out of reserves, which basically always happens? I can’t think of a time in financial history that a country has been able to defend a currency peg against a sustained attack.
Global Forex Reserves
They’ll run out of bullets, like they always do, and basically the only option left will be to hike interest rates, to attract capital to flow back into their country. But how will they do that with global debt to GDP at 356%? If all these countries do that, they will cause a global depression on a scale never seen before.
Britain, for example, has a bit over $100B of reserves. That provides maybe a few months of cover in the Forex markets until they’re done. Furthermore, you are ignoring another vicious feedback loop. When the foreign banks sell US Treasuries, this drives up yields in the US, which makes even more capital flow to the US! This weakens their currency even further.
FX Feedback Loop
To add insult to injury, this increases US Treasury borrowing costs, which means even if the Fed completely ignores the global economy imploding, the US will pay much more in interest. We will reach insolvency even faster than anyone believes. The 2yr Treasury bond is above 4%- with $31T of debt, that means when we refinance we will pay $1.24 Trillion in interest alone. Who's going to buy that debt? The only entity with a balance sheet large enough to absorb that is the Fed. Restarting QE in 3...2…1… —---- Q: I live in England. With the Pound collapsing, what can I do? What will happen from here? How will the governments respond?
England, and Europe in general, is in serious trouble. You guys are currently facing a severe energy crisis stemming from Russia cutting off Nord Stream 1 in early September and now with Nord Stream 2 offline due to a mysterious leak, energy supplies will be even more tight.
Not to mention, you have a pretty high debt to GDP at 95
%. Britain is a net importer, and is still running government deficits of £15.8 billion (recorded in Q1 2022). Basically, you guys are the United States without your own large scale energy and defense sector, and without Empire status and a World Reserve Currency that you once had.
The Pound will almost certainly continue falling against the Dollar. The Bank of England panicked on Wednesday in reaction to a $100M margin call on British pension funds
, and now has begun buying long dated (10yr) gilts, or government bonds.
They’re doing this as inflation is spiking there even worse than the US, and the nation faces a currency crisis as the Pound is nearing parity with the Dollar.
BOE announces bond-buying scheme (9/28/22)
I will not sugarcoat it, things will get rough. You need to hold cash, make sure your job, business, or investments are secure (ie you have cashflow) and hunker down. Eliminate any unnecessary purchases. If you can, buy USDs as they will likely continue to rise and will hold value better than your own currency.
If Parliament goes through with more tax cuts, that will only make the fiscal situation worse and result in more borrowing, and thus more money printing in the end.
—---- Q: What does this mean for Gamestop? For the domestic US economy?
Gamestop will continue to operate as I am sure they have been- investing in growth and expanding their Web3 platform.
Fiat is fundamentally broken. This much is clear- we need a new financial system not based on flawed 16th fractional banking principles or “trust me bro” financial intermediaries.
My hope is that they are at the forefront of a new financial system which does not require centralized authorities or custodians- one where you truly own your assets, and debasement is impossible.
I haven’t really written about GME extensively because it’s been covered so well by others, and I don’t feel I have that much to add.
As for the US economy, we are still in a deep recession, no matter what the politicians say- and it will get worse. But our economic troubles, at least in the short term (6 months) will not be as severe as the rest of the world due to the aforementioned Dollar Milkshake.
The debt crisis is still looming, midterms are approaching, and the government continues to deficit spend as if there’s no tomorrow.
As the global monetary system unravels, yields will spike, the deleveraging will get worse, and our dollar will get stronger. The fundamental factors continue to deteriorate.
I’ve covered the US enough so I'll leave it there.
—------ Q: Did you know about the Dollar Milkshake Theory before recently? What did you think of it?
Of course I knew about it, I’ve been following Brent Johnson since he appeared on RealVision and Macrovoices. He laid out the entire theory in 2018 in a long form interview here
. I listened to it maybe a couple times, and at the time I thought he was right- I just didn’t know how right he was.
Brent and I have followed each other and been chatting a little on Twitter- his handle is SantiagoAuFund
, I highly recommend you give him a follow.
I’ve never met him in person, but from what I can see, his predictions are more accurate than almost anyone else in finance. Again, all credit to him- he truly understands the global monetary system on a fundamental level.
I believed him when he said the dollar would rally- but the speed and strength of the rally has surprised me. I’ve heard him predict DXY could go to 150, mirroring the massive DXY squeeze post the 1970s stagflation. He could very easily be right- and the absolute chaos this would mean for global trade and finance are unfathomable.
History of DXY
—---------- Q: The Pound and Euro are falling just because of the energy crisis there. That's it!
Why is the Yen falling then? How about the Yuan? Those countries are not currently undergoing an energy crisis. Let’s review the year to date performance of most fiat currencies vs the dollar:
Japanese Yen: -20.31%
Chinese Yuan: -10.79%
South African Rand: -10.95%
English Pound: -18.18%
Swiss Franc: -6.89%
South Korean Won: -16.73%
Indian Rupee: -8.60%
Turkish Lira: -27.95%
There are only a handful of currencies positive against the dollar, the most notable being the Russian Ruble and the Brazilian Real- two countries which have massive commodity resources and are strong exporters. In an inflationary environment, hard assets do best, so this is no surprise.
—------ Q: What can the average person do to prepare? What are you doing?
Obligatory this is NOT financial advice
This is an extremely difficult question, as there are so many factors. You need to ask yourself, what is your financial situation like? How much disposable income do you have? What things could you cut back on? I can’t give you specific ideas without knowing your situation.
Personally, I am building up savings and cutting down on expenses. I’m getting ready for a severe recession/depression in the US and trying to find ways to increase my income, maybe a side hustle or switching jobs.
I am holding my GME and not selling- I still have some shares in Fidelity that I need to DRS (I know, sorry, I was procrastinating).
For the next few months, I believe there will be accelerating deflation as interest rates spike and the debt cycle begins to unwind. But like I’ve stated before, this will lead us towards a second Great Depression very rapidly, and to avoid the deflationary blizzard the Fed will restart QE on a scale never seen before.
QE Infinity. This will be the impetus for even worse inflation- 25%+ by this time next year. It’s hard to prepare for this, and easy to feel hopeless. It’s important to know that we have been through monetary crises before, and society did not devolve into a zombie apocalypse. You are not alone, and we will get through this together.
It’s also important to note that we are holding the most lopsided investment opportunity of a generation. Any money you put in there can be grown by orders of magnitude.
We are at the end of the Central Bankers game- and although it will be painful, we will rid the world of them, I believe, and build a new financial system based on blockchains which will disintermediate the institutions. They have everything to lose.
—------ Q: I want to learn more, where can I do? What can I do to keep up to date with everything?
You can start by reading books, listening to podcasts, and checking the news to stay abreast of developments. I have a book list linked at the end of the Dollar Endgame posts.
I’ll be covering the central bank clown show on Twitter, you can follow me there if you like. I’ll also include links to some of my favorite macro people below:
I’m still finishing up the finale for Dollar Endgame
- I should have it out soon. I’m also writing an addendum to the series which is purely Q&A to answer questions and concerns. Sorry for the wait.
—------------------- Nothing on this Post constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any security, portfolio of securities, investment product, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
DD Update on RFP: How Lumber’s Best Price Performer is Looking After a 60% Surge in the Last Month
submitted by Ding123456 to stocks [link] [comments]
I posted a DD on RFP a month ago. Since then this stock has surged almost 60%, including an epic 15% jump last Friday when the housing starts numbers were published and showed massive increase in construction since February; which I said it would a month ago.
I’ve been getting a lot of messages recently asking if this stock is still worth buying or what’s my PT. I am not going to suggest a PT or tell anyone whether they should buy this stock or when to sell if they bought it. Everyone has their own risk tolerance and investing style.
However, I am willing share the main data points (positive and negative) that I have so far focused on which will explain why I haven’t sold any of my shares yet, nor plan to in the next few weeks. If you see flaws in the data/analysis, please share. I am not a financial analyst. I can’t give you advice. I am just going to share with you why I am still sticking with this stock. Brief History Description
If you want a brief history description on this company, you can go to my old DD on it
The only thing I will add: here’s a very recent interview
from a lumber distributotrader giving a good interview on why lumber is so high, and will continue to be high for a while. If you look at analyst projections for the major homebuilders, like LEN, DHI, TOL, etc… they all expect the homebuilders to see continuously increasing earnings for this year and 2022. If they plan on building like crazy for the foreseeable future, that’s great news for companies like RFP. Present Day Conditions
YTD RFP is up 126% and 812% for the year. As with any stock, the higher it climbs, the more you should expect resistance (little dips) from profit taking. There may be a dip on Monday after last Friday’s insane rally. When I posted in March that this was an undervalued stock, there were many people saying the lumber surge was over and the stock had peaked. They were wrong :). Now let’s look at what’s changed in the last 30 days now that the stock is up 60% since then. Bear Case Considerations
I want to start with possible downsides to consider. First, this stock is almost now trading at its 5 year high (Current price – 14.78; 5-year High was 15.50 in 2018). The stock hasn’t traded in the 20s and 30s in over a half a decade. So expect more turbulence and resistance on the way there.
Second, this is a cyclical stock. Cyclicals do great until they don’t. This stock will likely start a decline right before the decline in earnings shows up in an earnings statement. A great analogy for exit strategies on cyclicals is: You want to leave the party while you’re still having fun. To see a great example this, look at RFP’s stock price trajectory in Fall 2018, right before it’s Q3 earnings announcement on November 2, 2018. Q3 was its best earnings for the year, but the stock was already declining from its 52WK high because lumber and wood pulp prices were crashing prior to that November announcement.
Third, the trailing PE is now ~135. So there is absolutely some futures earning priced in at this point. However, for reason’s I’ll explain later, this PE is very misleading because of an accounting quirk from Q4 2020.
Four, dimensional lumber already has surged over 300% to ~ $1200-1300 MBF in the cash markets. While those prices may surge a tiny bit more in the next couple months, it’s highly unlikely that there will be much more growth in price; a very important consideration for a cyclical stock.
Fifth, who the heck knows what Covid still has in store, if anything. There was a recent lockdown order for Ontario (where some RFP facilities are) due to a spike in Covid cases. Things like this could cut into RFP’s bottom line. Hard to say how much if at all.
Sixth, they still have some pension liabilities that need to be paid for and will certainly mute the full impact of earnings (meaning less re-investment or less dividend potential) until these liabilities are fully paid off. These pension liabilities could be a major factor decreasing the perceived fair value of the stock in the eyes of the institutional investors/HF’s. Why The Bear Case Doesn’t Scare Me Yet
1) I like Peter Lynch’s perspective that past performance doesn’t guarantee future performance. 800% growth doesn’t mean it will stop growing nor does it mean the stock will continue to grow. What matters is whether the future earnings coming down the road justify further growth. If they do, stay the course.
2) While the pattern of cyclicals means there will be a peak and a drop from that peak, what’s different with this particular company is that it was trading at ridiculous lows, and if they finish paying off their debt this year (which I think they will), that combined with the improvements they’ve made in 2020 and 2021, the resting run rate of this stock has a good chance of being higher than it was before this cycle started. If it does, and you ask me how much higher will than normal run rate be? I have no fucking clue. Anyone who claims to is talking out of their ass.
3) The trailing PE is high, and a good portion of Q1 earnings is priced in, but I don’t think it’s fully priced in for two reasons. First, in Q4 RFP did an $80 Million writeoff for the idling of two newsprint mills—a one-time accounting expense that wasn’t a literal cash expenditure—which put them in the negative for that quarter and a EPS of 10 cents for 2020. If you remove that write off, their current PE would be in the ballpark of 13-14.
Second, Q1’s average projected EPS is $1.66. I think they will beat it, but let’s say they don’t. Then the trailing EPS will be $1.77 and give you a PE of 8.3 at the current price. If you go for the adjusted PE that doesn’t include the writeoff, that would make the trailing EPS about ~$2.77 which would give an adjusted TTM PE of 5.33 at current price. So, either way the company is still undervalued when Q1 earnings gets added in.
4) Dimensional lumber will probably hit its peak in the next couple months. That being said, because of what’s driving this massive surge in prices (massive growth in housing construction and remodeling), unlike in 2018, I don’t think the price will drop fast after it hits the peak. Consistent with that, if you look at dimensional lumber futures here
, you can see that the futures market right now is expecting lumber to stay 2-3x it’s 2019 price for the rest of year, and possibly into 2022. Current Valuation Metrics compared to other Lumber Players
Even with the awesome rally in the last month, here’s RFP valuation ratios
RFP P/E 135 Forward P/E 3.86 Price/Sales .42 Price/Book 1.19 Price/Cash flow 6.57
Now let’s compare RFP’s ratios to similar forestry/lumber producers (WFG, WY, LPX, IFSPF and CFPZF) (Link to screenshot
Forestry/Lumber Avg P/E 15.2 Forward P/E 10.1 Price/Sales 2.1 Price/Book 4.4 Price/Cash flow 11.4
Takeaways: 1) RFP still
has the best forward PE, price-to-sales ratio, price-to-book ratio. 2) It has the highest trailing PE, but again, if you remove the newsprint mill write-off, it is actually sitting right below the average, 3) Interfor and Canfor have slightly better price-to-cashflow, but RFP is substantially better than WY, WFG, and LPX. Overall, RFP still has the best overall ratio picture and best forward-looking position, even after this 60% rally. The Bullish Case for 2021
I am not going repeat what I wrote in the last post. To see the things I listed to support a bull case a month ago, here’s the link Future Lumber outlook has dramatically improved but analysts haven’t yet accounted for it.
Myself and other RFP longs have been banging our heads for months now, because the 4 analysts who cover RFP so far still refuse to acknowledge the complete reality of the surge in lumber prices. Here’s a snapshot of average analyst quarterly EPS projections for 2021
. If you look up the other lumber stocks, they make all the same projections of mediocre Q2 and then Q3/Q4 dropping off hard.
The issue is that the avg lumber price for Q1 will probably fall in the ballpark of 800-950. (Remember there is a 9% duty for the lumber produced in Canada). However, the avg price for Q2 will absolutely be over $1000 MBF. So profits from lumber should be higher in Q2 than Q1. And given the volume and price surge for the futures in the Q3 months (July futures currently trading over $1100 MBF), Q3 will almost certainly have a higher EPS than Q1, much less the current analysts’ projections for Q3.
Also, by end of June, RFP’s three US mills they bought in 2020 should be running at full capacity according to the last earnings transcript. At full capacity they increase the companies lumber production by ~25%. So this only further adds to the extra sales/profit to be expect after Q2, compared to Q1. But here’s a decent way for you to do your own math for the value of the lumber segment:
For RFP, assume $400 costs USD. There may be a few other costs to factor in, but not that much. May be $50 for longer shipping distances or whatnot. So, at $1000 MBF, you get about $500 cash margins. At $1200 (which is still lower than the current cash price) you get $700 cash margins.
RFP will probably produce around 2.5 billion feet of lumber, so prices of $1000 per thousand feet let’s you do the math. I’d use a lower realization given the duty and we don’t know yet how Q4 will look. So let’s call it $900 avg for year. So that roughly gives us margins of $450 USD per thousand feet on 2.5 billion of feet. So that’s $1.12B in cash earnings — or about $14/share — for 2021.
Depreciation/Amortization should take a chuck of that away so I don’t think that will be pure GAAP net income. But still, pretty decent for a stock currently valued at $14.78, or a market cap of 1.2 billion. And that’s just the lumber segment.
So for those wondering if the party is over, ask yourself, how many companies are likely to produce their current market cap in EBITDA in the next year from just one
of their business segments…? Food for thought on the current valuation. : ) But Wait, there’s More!
Putting aside all the cash the lumber segment is printing, the Paper and Pulp sectors also appear to be doing well and likely will boost profits in Q2/Q3, at a minimum.
Unfortunately, the current prices of paper and wood pulp are much more opaque and harder to preemptively track. However, there are some limited free resources out there and they seem to show upward trajectory starting at the beginning of Q1 and continuing to grow in Q2, which means we should expect higher PapePulp profits in Q2, and Q3 if trend holds. Since it is harder for me to figure out all the drivers of this surge (beyond economy reopening and China’s ban on non-degradable single-use plastics), I don’t have the confidence to look beyond Q3 for now on these two areas.
In terms of what I use to try and get a feel for these two areas:
1) The closest thing to a futures market indicator for pulp. (Shanghai Futures Market
) The value is in yuan so you have to convert the currency yourself. It is a relatively recent and speculative market, but it so far has generally done a decent job of acting as a mirror of the general wood pulp market. As long as these futures are up, that’s a decent indicator of what’s currently going on in pulp world generally.
2) There are couple of analysts who give little tidbits when companies, including RFP and its competitors, announce price increases on pulp. I follow this editor
. I don’t pay for his service. But if you scroll through his feed (or search twitter for the terms “NBSK price” and “SBSK Price” you’ll see his tweets in the last few months announcing price increases to RFP’s two main types of pulp in the last few months, both by RFP and its competitors. If you do that, you’ll see big price increases being announced, many of which are effective during Q2. So I expect Q2 and beyond to do better than Q1 in those areas as well.
3) For Paper, this one is the hardest. This was a recent article
that talks about the type of paper RFP produces and that indicates prices are going up. But beyond that, as the economy opens back up, paper profits are expected to increase from 2020 levels. So I think this will get better over the next few quarters, compared to last year.
Overall, it’s hard to say for sure what this means for true earnings for the year, but in terms of how I am planning my own exit strategies on this stock, I think there are major upward revisions coming to analyst projections after Q1 Earnings on April 29 and probably again during the summer, largely because lumber’s historically increased price probably isn’t going away any time soon. RFP has a major additional earnings booster hiding in its financials which aren’t reflected in the valuation metrics but will be in the next few quarters
Here’s an awesome nugget I recently realized that isn’t reflected in the valuation ratios, but I think it will help propel the book value/EV of RFP‘s earnings and the ultimate EPS.
Here’s a screenshot of RFP’s 2020 10-K, specifically it’s deferred tax assets
. If you don’t know what a deferred tax asset is, especially loss carryforwards, google it or watch a Youtube video on it. If you don’t know what valuation allowance, it’s very important
you look it up to understand this bit.
Essentially, because of the massive losses RFP sustained over the last decade while it transformed itself, it has over $800 million dollars in loss carryforwards and tax credits which it can use to pay virtually no taxes on the likely 100s of millions of dollars in earnings it will generate in the immediate future.
Here’s the real critical point, those carryforward losses largely aren’t reflected in the book value/enterprise value of the company because of that 774-million-dollar valuation allowance which was essentially a write off of those deferred tax assets.
Meaning, as RFP starts to generate more earnings, some of that valuation allowance will likely be undone, so that the loss carryforwards can be used, and when it does, the reversal of those valuation allowances will look like extra earnings/EPS on the books. Meaning, if they remove $160 million of VA to account for the use of the same DTA’s to avoid paying taxes on 2021 earnings, that will look like an extra $2 EPS for 2021. Given that the current enterprise value is only 1.63 billion, if the total valuation allowance was reversed tomorrow that would cause an immediate increase in their enterprise value of 47% and would look like a net income of $9.69 EPS….
RFP probably isn’t going to do it all at once but that gives you a sense of the scale of net income that will be added to RFP’s books in the coming quarters/years as they generate profits and RFP removes the valuation allowance negating the book value of the DTAs they previously wrote-off. If the Canadian Lumber tariff is removed, this would result in an instant windfall for RFP.
I’ve been asked how the politics of the tariff could affect RFP. The answer is, it would be incredible for RFP if the tariff is removed. Right now, pressure is building from the homebuilders associations and from Canada to have the US remove the 9% tariff on Canadian lumber. I have no clue when or if this will happen and won’t speculate on that issue.
BUT, if the tariff is removed, RFP gets all the money it has set aside to pay future duties. At end of Q4, that was $243 million (See Page 4 of their 2020 10-k
). That comes to just over $3 of EPS, which is quite significant given that the average analyst projection for net income for the year is $4 EPS… TLDR
: This stock has been kicking ass for a reason and I think will continue to do so. I can’t predict the future, but I haven’t sold a share yet and will continue to keep a majority of my portfolio in this stock for the next 1-2 quarters at a minimum,
because of the massive earnings they are/will be generating. I don’t think the true future earnings of 2021 are priced in yet by analyst PTs or the current stock price.
Note: I am not a financial advisoanalyst. Please do your own research and make your own decisions if this company is under or overvalued. I am sharing my thoughts with you because the mainstream financial media gives dogshit advice on how to invest in lumber.
I’m long RFP in both shares and long term calls. Don’t ask me for a PT, I’m not gonna give you one. Don’t ask me if you should buy it, when you should buy it or when you should sell it. You have to make those decisions for yourself.
Brief Explanation Of Recent Events With Tokenized GME
| || | submitted by bloodhound1144 to u/bloodhound1144 [link] [comments]
Since I'm getting tagged below a lot of posts, I'll explain this very briefly until I get a better handle on what's going to happen.
Tokenized GME is now on a VERY volatile exchange.
It was trading mainly on DeFiChain DEX and FTX.
Decentralized (DEX) and Centralized (CEX)
80-90% of the volume was GME/USD on FTX. Centralized exchange. Nice and stable.
Since FTX is fucked, 100% of the volume is now on DeFiChain. Decentralized.
It now trades against DUSD instead of USD.
DUSD is unstable
Don't get too excited about price movements. It was easier to convert and affect USD based stocks before. Now, it has to be converted to USD to make that happen, which adds another layer to the equation. FOREX markets
DUSD = Decentralized United States Dollar
USD = United States Dollar
I'm working on a massive post to explain a lot of this and a lot of what I've found recently. It will be at least another week. Enjoy the show in the meantime.
- FTX is definitely not the only one going down
- This is WAY beyond crypto
I'M RETARDED! DON'T YOU DARE FUCKING LISTEN TO ME, OR ASSUME IN ANY WAY THAT THIS IS SOME SORT OF FINANCIAL ADVICE!
Bybit Learn Series - Nov 18
| || | submitted by 1nceler to Bybit [link] [comments]
10 Reasons Why You Need to Use a Grid Trading Bot
With the prices of cryptocurrencies swinging widely within minutes and markets opening 24 hours every day, it's hard for traders to keep up.
For starters, crypto traders may not be able to react quickly enough to take advantage of opportunities to profit from rapid price swings. Furthermore, delays in transactions or exchange executions further worsen the problem. Traders cannot monitor all the crypto exchanges and global markets round the clock to achieve optimal trading results.
Fortunately, this is the age of automation. For many investors, bots (short for robots) that run bits of code to trade and execute transactions offer solutions to these problems.
This article will look at the grid trading bot — a bot that adopts the grid trading strategy — how it works, and its benefits to users.
What Is a Grid Trading Strategy?
Grid trading is a trading strategy that involves placing orders above and below a set price using a “price grid” of orders. The price grid consists of orders at incrementally increasing and decreasing prices. For instance, you may set buy orders at every $500 below the current market price of ETH, and sell orders every $500 above ETH’s current price. The grid trading bot automatically buys when the price falls to the predetermined level, and again if the price drops by another $500. The reverse occurs when the price of ETH starts to climb.
The basic premise of this strategy is to repeatedly buy at the pre-specified price, and then sell the position when the price rises above that level. Conversely, you can sell at a predetermined price point and wait for the price to fall to a set level and buy — repeatedly.
A grid trading strategy is easily automated, and valuable for forex currency trading and crypto trading. It’s especially useful when prices move within a specific range or a “sideways market,” where assets fluctuate within a tight range for an extended time without going in a particular direction. Prices oscillate within the borders of price support and resistance.
Grid trading strategies attempt to make money whenever the price of an asset changes. However, there’s a trade-off: The more orders a grid trading system has, the higher the trading frequency and, consequently, the lower the profit from each order.
Bybit has finalized plans to introduce a built-in grid trading bot in its trading mechanics. Users can easily automate buy and sell orders placed at predetermined intervals by customizing the grid limits — upper and lower — and the number of grids. Once the set-up is complete, the system will automatically buy or sell orders at these preset prices.
Crypto trading can be taxing and time-intensive. However, when properly deployed, bots can take away some of the hassles while optimizing your profits. Here are ten reasons you need a grid trading bot so you can profit in both Spot and Futures markets.
1. Low entry point
Using a grid trading bot, you can enter positions at levels you might not be able to achieve by trading manually. Without the need to continuously monitor price fluctuations, you can have orders at several low entry points. Conversely, you’ll also be placing orders to be executed at higher selling levels, or placing the trades at extreme levels.
2. Easy to use and customizable
The grid trading bot is straightforward to use and easily customizable. Once you sign up, you can configure the parameters as you wish. Generally, you can adjust the upper and lower limits of the price range, and set the number of orders the bot can place within this price range, as well as the width between each buy-sell limit order.
Users don't need to know or calculate complex metrics and measurements, or study market indicators. Since it's “plug and play,” anyone without extensive crypto trading experience can set up a grid trading bot in minutes. The underlying grid strategy doesn’t require new traders to understand complex market signals, indicators, and algorithms.
3. High automation level
Grid trading bots lend themselves to a high level of automation. This is because the underlying trading strategy is highly logical. Bots are designed to perform predetermined tasks unrelated to the market sentiments and trends. Grid trading bots efficiently employ the grid trading strategy, which would be too intricate to execute with manual trading.
Since grid trading bots are easy to set up and use, they can be used in virtually any currency market. It’s a great starting point for traders who don’t plan to monitor the market constantly.
4. Turn strategies into profit during a quiet market
Grid trading bots have the unique advantage of turning a profit in a time of market doldrums. Deservedly, cryptocurrencies have earned a reputation for volatility. But now and then, the markets trade within a range, though they might still move wildly within that range. Rather than have your crypto assets hibernate along with the market, you can use grid trading strategies to capitalize on a market where you may not have much conviction.
5. Enhance risk management
A grid trading bot can help you enhance your risk management capabilities. The settings you configure directly impact your profitability. Most importantly, it gives you control over the risk-reward level.
You can earn a small but steady profit with minimal risks when you bet on stablecoin pairs involving USD tether, for example. Conversely, you can choose to whet your risk appetite and go for bigger stakes and chunkier returns, trading coins with low market cap and high volatility.
The ability of trading bots to adjust your risks in line with your appetite is an excellent tool for enhancing your risk management skills.
6. Provide liquidity
Using the grid trading strategy via bots essentially means you provide much-needed liquidity for the exchange. You increase the market liquidity of the exchange by placing buy and sell orders, which makes grid trading an excellent strategy for market making. The bot can provide liquidity on a specific cryptocurrency by placing a bid-and-ask limit order on an exchange.
Grid trading bots ensure you'll pay the maker fee as well because makers provide liquidity to an exchange by "creating or making a market" for other traders. In contrast, takers remove liquidity by “taking” available orders. Maker fees are usually lower to incentivize market makers. Since a grid trading strategy provides liquidity, users pay the lower maker fees.
Illiquid markets with thin order books (order books with fewer offers at different price levels, which increase slippage) tend to benefit from a grid trading strategy. They’re marked by large price spikes, which occur frequently. The grid trading bot eats up these spikes by providing liquidity and converting them into profit for the trader. This also helps anyone trading the illiquid pair try to get a fair price.
Grid trading bots can be used in any market, and with reasonable potential to make a profit. They’re versatile — because the core underlying strategy proceeds based on the idea of buying low and selling high (and pocketing the difference). Thus, grid trading bots can trade profitably without being affected by market sentiments and trends.
You also have the liberty of configuring the bot and selecting prices ranges and the number of grids, which helps you define the frequency and period. You can tweak the bot for the short term, where it makes small profits by trading frequently in a short interval. Or you can set it up to run for longer periods with less frequency, and earn profit from more significant price shifts.
Grid trading bots can help you earn some extra profit if you intend to hold on to two exchangeable assets for the long haul. One of the primary tenets of investing is diversification, which is spreading your funds among multiple assets, rather than a single one. Rather than simply holding, you can earn extra profit by using the grid trading strategy to make more money from the fluctuations between the prices of the multiple assets in your portfolio.
9. Suitable for both short- and long-term trading
Grid trading as a strategy has been used in other types of markets, such as forex. All kinds of traders — including scalpers, day traders, swing traders and position traders — can take advantage of grid trading bots for managing risk and maximizing profits.
Traders who prefer quick returns can set up the trading bot to function for the short term, catching hundreds of trades from the small price movements within a short period. Long-term traders can set up a huge grid range in which trades can run for a longer period, ranging from weeks to months.
10. Remove emotions from trading
Naturally, traders are prone to many emotions — including anger, greed, and fear — when money is involved. It’s challenging to keep these unbridled emotions in check when trading manually. Grid trading bots can help implement a rule-based grid strategy, minimizing the involvement of emotions in trading.
Trading bots operate according to a defined set of rules, like fixed profit taking or stop-loss points. If you’re planning to employ a consistent strategy, grid trading bots are useful for carrying out disciplined and controlled trades.
The Bottom Line
Grid trading bots are automated trading tools that adopt the grid trading strategy, a trading system that allows you to profit by placing a series of long or short orders at predetermined intervals around a set price, creating a trading grid. Easy to use and set up, these bots can help you execute trades profitably and efficiently, saving you money, time — and stress. Get started with by creating your own grid trading bot so you can easily invest in both Spot and Futures markets
We hope this Bybit trading bot guide has been useful for you in your pursuit of automated investing and trading. Here's all the facts about our trading bots, summarized in one simple infographic.
Forex Market Trade PnL, Risk, Lots Calculator and FX Resources Script
I made an app which grabs all Top Shot activity into a CSV and runs calculations to help with tax
submitted by jubilant_cornichons to nbatopshot [link] [comments]
I made a program which gathers data about your Top Shot activity, calculates some things and puts it all in a CSV file: https://github.com/taxhelpetopshotactivity
This includes doing things like- converting purchase and sale amounts from USD to a currency of your choice, and calculating any foreign currency gains or losses
- matching moments to packs
- working out sale profits from selling moments from packs based on pack purchase price, as well as for gifted moments and traded in moments
- working out the transaction time into your local timezone
I made it for myself to help with my own tax requirements, as Top Shot's activity information is very sparse. It is also just useful and interesting to see your activity history in full.
I thought I would share it in case it helps others. If you find that this is helpful, please consider sending a top shot gift to jubilant_cornichons774o
The outputted CSV file will have the following headers:
activity, date, subtotal_usd, fee_usd, total_usd, payment_method, payment_id, status, activity_type, brief_date, id, dapper_sale_fee_usd, dapper_sale_fee_to_currency, other_currency, usd_to_currency_rate, total_currency, json_data_id, item, player, play_category, team, flow_token_id, other_party_to_transactionId, other_party_to_transaction, main_data_source, order_id, moment_play_id, set_or_pack_ids, serial_number, activity_details, set_information, is_pack, pack_quantity, moment_general_path, moment_serial_path, moment_id, sale_profit_usd, sale_profit_currency, from_pack_id, days_held, account_balance, account_balance_currency, forex_realisation, forex_gain, selected_timezone, date_in_selected_timezone Edit:
As for any open source tool, please review the code base to ensure that you trust and understand what it is doing. The tool uses your Top Shot token which requires access to your account so it is important that you understand all that the app does, and that you never provide the token to anyone else.
What do foreign exchange futures refer to
| || | submitted by mtedr to u/mtedr [link] [comments]
FxFut, short for “Forex Futures,” is a centralized form of Futures exchange in which two parties, through open outcry, buy or sell a foreign currency
in a foreign currency and enter into a contract to deliver a standard quantity at a future date at an agreed price. Foreign EXCHANGE
FUTURES, ALSO KNOWN AS CURRENCY FUTURES, ARE FUTURES CONTRACTS THAT convert one CURRENCY into another at the end of THE trading day according TO CURRENT CONDITIONS.
Generally speaking, one of the two currencies is, in which case the futures price will be expressed as “X dollars per other currency”.
The representation of futures prices for some currencies may differ from the corresponding representation of spot foreign exchange rates.
Foreign exchange futures trading is the buying or selling of a certain amount of another currency in dollars at a fixed exchange rate
on an agreed date.
Foreign exchange futures trading and contract spot trading have similarities and differences.
Contracts are bought and sold through banks or companies, and foreign exchange futures are bought and sold in special futures markets.
The main futures exchanges in the world are: Chicago Board of Trade, New York Mercantile Exchange, Sydney Board OF Trade, Singapore Board of Trade, London Board OF Trade.
The futures market should include at least two parts: one is the trading market, the other is the clearing center.
After THE BUYER OR SELLER OF FUTURES TRADES ON THE EXCHANGE, THE CLEARING CENTER BECOMES its COUNTERparty until the actual delivery of the futures contract.
Forex futures and contract forex trading
are related to each other and differ from each other in the way of operation.
When BOTH SIDES OF THE TRANSACTION ARE ENGAGED IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE CONTRACT SIGNING, CLEARING CENTER WILL UNDERTAKE THE REQUIREMENT OF ENTERING GOLD TO BOTH SIDES OF THE CONTRACT, AND THIS amount IS THE DEPOSIT.
| || | submitted by ella4637 to forex_learnling [link] [comments]
Forex trading has long been considered a generous way of making millions of dollars quickly. And it is not a myth but a reality, which is evident from several popular rags-to-riches stories. Whether you’re a forex trader, a beginner or in any way associated with the Forex industry, you may have surely heard of George Soros, one of the most successful and richest Forex traders. In 1992, he held a short position against the U.K. pound sterling during the famous Black Wednesday crisis and earned a whopping $1 billion. That’s not all! There’s a lot more on the list.
Despite being the most volatile market, Forex offers relatively higher chances of generous profit-making opportunities due to its optimal trading conditions. Apart from this, there are numerous other reasons why most traders choose to trade Forex; major ones of them are listed below.
5 Best Reasons To Choose Forex
Forex market operates 24 hours a day and five days a week, meaning you got plenty of time to trade in the market. Meanwhile, you can actively trade in the forex market at any time of the day during the weekdays, as there’s always at least one forex trading session open.
As one of the largest financial markets in the world, Forex holds way too high liquidity, giving traders another reason to choose it. Due to this high liquidity, the market is full of buyers and sellers who are always on the lookout for making a trade. The high liquidity also lowers the transaction costs and spreads.
The highly volatile nature of the Forex market makes it easy for traders to scalp higher profits. The quick price fluctuations in the currency pairs allow traders to convert this volatility and profit opportunity.
Benefit Of Leveraged Trading
The leverage offering in the Forex market is comparatively higher than other asset classes. You can expand your trade position by up to 500%. However, you should exercise caution while trading with high leverage as it can multiply losses just like profits.
Access To A Wide Range Of Currency Pairs
With Forex trading, you get access to trade 90+ currency pairs. The availability of such a long list of tradable instrument help trader diversifies their portfolio easily.
The list of currency pairs includes major such as GBP/USD, EUUSD, and USD/JPY, minor such as USD/ZAR, SGB/JPY, CAD/CHF and exotics such as EUCZK, TRY/JPY, USD/MXN. fxreviews.best
Ikaria Lean Belly Juice Reviews Reddit
| || | submitted by PatientFormal6907 to PTTrimReviews [link] [comments]
Ikaria Lean Belly Juice is the best item. It has natural ingredients that can balance hormones and drastically reduce weight gain. They don't contain any fillers, therefore they don't harm your body in any way. Ikaria Lean Belly Juice Reviews Reddit
Ikaria Lean Belly Juice Reviews Reddit
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HUGE SAVINGS TODAY GET IKARIA LEAN BELLY JUICE REVIEWS BEFORE STOCK RUNS OUT The Incentives of Ikaria Lean Belly Juice
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- Resveratrol is an essential part of a group of chemicals known as polyphenols. While reducing body fat, it enhances muscular mass. Due to its anti-inflammatory properties, it is beneficial in the treatment of arthritis.
- Panax Ginseng: Panax ginseng aids in fat loss while supporting exercise. Panax ginseng has advantages for mental health as well.
- Citrus pectin is a soluble fibre that is largely present in the peels, seeds, and pulp of citrus fruits. This nutrient controls your appetite by reducing cravings and cleansing the body of toxins. It is an effective treatment for diarrhoea in addition to treating constipation and high cholesterol.
- Superstar ingredients are those found in weight-loss pills, such as EGCG. There are many EGCG-containing tea kinds. ECGC functions as an antioxidant and a cholesterol burner in Ikaria Lean Belly Juice.
- Seaweeds contain the antioxidant fucoxanthin. Weight reduction products must induce weight loss, speed up metabolism, and convert body fat to energy. According to study, fucoxanthin converts white fat into brown fat, accelerating weight reduction. Brown fat serves as a support for a healthy metabolism.
- Bioperine: The presence of bioperine reduces the development of fat cells. It enhances the health of the brain in addition to food absorption.
- Strawberry extract: If you're attempting to lose weight, strawberries are a healthy meal choice. These fruits are particularly nutrient-dense in addition to being high in fibre and low in calories. The hormones adiponectin and leptin, which stimulate metabolism and burn calories, are found in strawberries.
- Hibiscus: Hibiscus has been shown to aid in weight loss within a 12-week period. Tea is the most common form of hibiscus consumption. It shouldn't be drunk in big quantities though because it contains aluminium.
- Black Currant Extract: It has been claimed that supplements containing black currant extract burn fat more quickly than four weeks of exercise. When taken twice daily for a week, it often speeds up this process by 27%. In contrast, a candidate in a study claimed that the procedure had improved by 55%.
Ikaria Lean Belly Juice addresses the root cause of stubborn fat layers in the body by flushing out toxic ceramide molecules that develop a coating of fat around your critical organs and slow down your metabolism. Numerous users reported weight loss and a number of other benefits in their Ikaria Lean Belly Juice reviews. Let's look at how you could benefit from Ikaria Lean Belly Juice in this review.
reduces persistent extra paunch.
decreases the urge for sweet and processed meals.
increases metabolic rate and sound circulatory strain.
Energy creation needs to rise for all biological cycles to function as intended. Similar to this, stable processing, predictable admission, and joints are required.
All allergies, including those to gluten, soy, dairy, wheat, and animal products, have no effect on the equation, which is quite normal. Here are a Few Drawbacks of Ikaria Lean Belly Juice!
Children under 18 should not consume Ikaria Lean Belly Juice
Consult a doctor before using the supplement if you are on any medications or have a known disease.
Additionally, pregnant or lactating women are cautioned against consuming Ikaria Lean Belly Juice.
It is only available on the business's official website
. Guidelines for Use: Dosage Recommendations!
Ikaria Lean Belly Juice comes with a 30-day unique powder regimen in every bottle. The supplement details listed on the official website recommend taking 1 scoop (3.2g) of the formula each day together with water or another beverage for the greatest outcomes. Whether It Works How Does It Affect Your Health?
There are no negative effects. Although taking a liquid supplement is not the same as taking diet pills, some people are reluctant to try weight loss products. It is far more convenient, user-friendly, and healthy for the body. Ikaria Lean Belly Juice is a weight-loss supplement made from the finest natural ingredients. The thousands of good reviews on the internet demonstrate how well-liked this product is already. EXCLUSIVE OFFER BUY IKARIA LEAN BELLY JUICE FOR AN UN-BELIEVABLE LOW PRICE TODAY What is the price and where can we buy it?
The only place where customers can now get Ikaria Lean Belly Juice is from their official website. On occasion, external websites provide access to the supplement. Visit the official Ikaria Lean Belly Juice website instead, where all the details are available and the purchase process is simple. Customers can purchase individual bundles for a small delivery fee, and there are also available multipacks that don't require any transportation fees. So, click the link below to place your order. The following pricing details for Ikaria Lean Belly Juice are provided for your convenience:
For information on packages, new customers can consult the website. They can choose a box, put it in their cart, pay, and then enter the delivery address.
Within a few days, the business will deliver the merchandise and send a confirmation email. Monthly singles are more expensive than bundle packs. Deliveries in bulk are free. Buy three or six jars rather than one if you want to save money. Is it Genuine or A Scam?
It is not a fake; it is real. Visit the reliable website and select the pack to buy the supplement. The secure checkout page will then open after you click the add to basket button, requiring you to input your contact and Visa information. To receive payment, click the exchange's completion button. strongly suggested. Are Amazon and other online retailers selling Ikaria Lean Belly Juice?
The company advises users to never trust dealers and to only buy Ikaria Lean Belly Juice from the official website. It even applies to large eCommerce sites like Amazon because there is no way to check the reliability of these suppliers there. Don't spend your money anywhere else because the promotional discount and money-back guarantee are only good for the jars purchased from the company's official website
. If a refund policy exists, what exactly is it?
The company offers a money-back guarantee on all of its orders. The business claims that every order is backed by a 180-day money-back guarantee on its official website, making it quite obvious what its refund policy is. In the event that the product fails to deliver the intended results or does so more slowly than expected, the user has this amount of time to request a refund. The procedure is easy to follow, and the business does not require a justification for the return of the goods. ORDER Only ON IKARIA LEAN BELLY JUICE OFFICIAL WEBSITE Explain the Science Involved in Brief?
The foundation of Ikaria Lean Belly Juice is a rational argument for the root cause of resistant body weight and belly fat. In electronic libraries, government data sets, and supposed logical diaries, many evaluations of the equation's observed performance criteria and the elements it employs are available. A review that was published in the Food Science and Nutrition journal claims that resveratrol encourages lowering blood fat levels and regulating blood lipid levels, which aids in efficient weight loss. Another evaluation that was released in the National Center for Biotechnology Information claims that Ikaria Lean Belly Juice works with the proteins that transport ceramides to reduce their levels and promote weight loss. Reviews of Ikaria Lean Belly Juice
Sam Augustine, a New Orleans resident I rarely have free time because of how busy my job as a civil engineer is. I have not been able to reduce weight with a "good diet," exercise, medication, or therapy. I used the Ikaria Lean Belly Juice supplement since my cousin insisted, and it worked well for me. Within the first few weeks of use, my metabolism accelerated and I lost 5 pounds of excess weight. I want to take Ikaria Lean Belly Juice for a few more months because it has helped me lose weight in the months that have come after.
Craig Johnson Because of how popular and in demand Ikaria Lean Belly Juice has become, I started using it even though I had always been sceptical of dietary supplements for weight loss. The Ikaria Lean Juice recipe takes some time to start producing results for me in terms of weight loss. I didn't see any changes in my weight or body after using it for a week. But I began to notice a difference after taking this dietary supplement for three months. My body's capacity to burn fat increased thanks to the Lean Belly Juice supplement. TO LEARN MORE OR TO GET IKARIA LEAN BELLY JUICE, VISIT OFFICIAL WEBSITE HERE Drinking Ikaria Lean Belly Juice: Recommended Dosage
One month's worth of Ikaria Lean Belly Juice is contained in a jar with 30 serves. According to the official website, 3.2g, or one scoop, should be consumed each day. It can be consumed on an empty stomach and added to any smoothie or shake mix. You may make drinks or shakes taste more like juice by mixing them with water.
Your body may have issues with your organs if you eat more than is advised. The severity of the adverse effects is based on the number of medications used. Don't try the "unlimited" amount of the supplement if the results seem slow; instead, continue taking it for a longer period of time. Ikaria Lean Belly Juice Customer Reviews
Excellent online testimonials can be found for Ikaria Lean Belly Juice. The supplement's efficiency and scientifically supported ingredients have received praise from numerous social media users, verified purchasers, and journalists.
Testimonials, claims of weight loss, and other details can be found on the official website. One client claimed that while consuming her preferred foods and drinks, she lost a pant size in less than three weeks.
Another person used Ikaria Lean Belly Juice to lose 32 pounds, and another "obliterated" 24 pounds in just 8 weeks. Customers claim that after taking Ikaria Lean Belly Juice, they "double take" in the mirror.
Ikaria Lean Belly Juice, according to one customer, "made her a healthier mama." Theikariajuice.com
, the official website for Ikaria Lean Belly Juice, is replete with reviews from people who lost weight swiftly after using it.
Few people who have used Ikaria Lean Belly Juice claim to have adhered to a strict diet or exercise regimen, but the majority of testimonials claim they lost weight quickly simply ingesting the powdered supplement. A great weight reduction programme can help you drop 5 to 10 pounds each month. With no need for diets or exercise, the supplement provides comparable effects. Check The Availability Of Ikaria Lean Belly Juice Formula On The Official Website Possibile Adverse Effects
For someone attempting an endocrine boost for the first time, Ikaria Lean Belly Juice outcomes can differ. There are no serious side effects that require emergency treatment, however there could be minor stomach pain, diarrhoea, nausea, or strange hunger feelings. Within a few days, these symptoms will go gone on their own.
Many people are complaining that the product is useless and expensive trash. The inaccurate statements made about Lean Belly Juice are untrue. The majority of them were created by businesses hoping to mislead and deter potential customers from purchasing their goods.
Never trust anything you read online. Always trust customer reviews that include before and after pictures and were written by actual Ikaria Lean Belly Juice consumers. Final Thoughts: Is it Worth Buying?
Ikaria Lean Belly Juice has gained notoriety for its exceptional effects on weight loss and overall health. The most enticing aspect of this fat-burning product is its scientifically validated ingredients. This dietary supplement is packed with nutrients, vitamins, and minerals that aid in accelerating metabolism. It is a well-known weight-loss product that contains ingredients that have been shown to hasten weight loss in studies. One scoop of Ikaria Lean Belly Juice per day is said to cause weight loss even if you don't follow a regular diet and exercise plan. So, without further ado, click the link to submit your order. Best Regards!
Ikaria Lean Belly Juice has been popular online over the past few months for a good reason. It is a well-known weight-loss formula with components that have been supported by science to quicken the weight-loss process.
Even if the user does not follow a strict exercise and diet routine, it is claimed that consuming just one scoop of Ikaria Lean Belly Juice each day might result in considerable weight loss benefits. Check The Availability Of Ikaria Lean Belly Juice Formula On The Official Website Disclaimer:
The views and opinions expressed in the above article are independent professional judgment of the experts and The Tribune does not take any responsibility, in any manner whatsoever, for the accuracy of their views. This should not be considered as a substitute for medical advice. Please consult your physician for more details. Ikaria Lean Belly Juice are solely liable for the correctness, reliability of the content and/or compliance of applicable laws. The above is non-editorial content and The Tribune does not vouch, endorse or guarantee any of the above content, nor is it responsible for them in any manner whatsoever. Please take all steps necessary to ascertain that any information and content provided is correct, updated, and verified.
Benefits Of Using An Advanced Seedling Tray Making Machine
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Machines that are capable of using paper pulp to make trays are used by businesses worldwide. Nursery trays, along with seedling trays, are produced inside the millions. Not every the companies that manufacture them are likely to produce similar models. Actually, the majority of them are much better than their competitors. Your objective is usually to locate the ideal seedling tray making machine provided by a renowned business, renowned for making the best ones at a discount. To do this, you will have to follow this technique for locating these machines that can help you produce seedling trays automatically.
Different Parts Of Seedling Tray Machines
You will find a number of different sections associated with the production of seedling trays. It could are a straightforward process, yet it might be quite comprehensive. The primary step is always to convert recycled paper into a type of pulp. This pulp is needed for the formation in the trays. Once it is actually liquefied and purified, it can then be poured into molds (fábrica de bandejas de cartón para huevos
). These molds will likely then form the trays which you will produce. An oven that will then be used as a way to the trays, baking them at the quite high temperature, allowing them to solidify into trays which you can use.
https://preview.redd.it/ssj0f3ty1e4a1.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=00b88d907e60629d4dc56f472a700a93981b63c6 The Amount Of Pieces Is It Possible To Make Daily?
Numerous trays can be produced each day. Actually, you may calculate how many every hour. Smaller units are designed for creating a thousand pieces easily, whereas the biggest units are capable of doing 5 times more than this. The quantity of energy that is used, often measured in kilowatts, tends to go up using the production capabilities for each system. You must also consider the number of molds that will be accessible for use when deciding on one of these brilliant seedling tray making systems.
Does The Procedure Take Very Long?
This process itself does take some time to put together. It can not take extended by any means to produce the trays once things are all running. It could take some time to calibrate everything in order that it runs smoothly. Larger systems tend to be probably the most elaborate and complex. Your objective to save cash can be accomplished through simple conversations with manufacturers. You might request estimates and specifications for each and every unit that looks interesting. This will be listed on the website, and upon having compared several different units, you will have one that will be by far the most promising.
Owning and operating a fully automated seedling tray making machine (fabricantes de máquinas de moldeo de pulpa
) can take your business to improve amounts of production. If you absolutely have the capacity of making more seedlings each month, the greater unit will likely be the very best system to own. You should also choose them based on how many molds will probably be available. You will need to make various sizes depending upon the seedlings that you are currently selling. These factors, as well as knowing the price that you are likely to pay, can be acquired in a matter of hours by contacting these reputable businesses.
What is NovaTech? How do I get started?
submitted by BullMarketCowboy to NovaTechInvesting [link] [comments]
NovaTech is an offshore forex and crypto trading institution located in Beachmont Kingstown, Saint George.
NovaTech essentially lets you trade forex and crypto either automatically or manually. If manually you can use their MetaTrader5 application to manually trade on your own. I wouldn't suggest doing this unless you know what you're doing when it comes to trading.
You can automatically invest your money and let them trade it for you with their automated trading and their manual professional traders. To have the trading done automatically, you have to set up a PAMM account. A PAMM account is a new thing that allows someone to let someone else do their forex trading for them. You can learn about them here on Investopedia.com https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/010715/how-forex-pamm-accounts-work.asp
On average, NovaTech returns 3% per week. I say on average because it's not always exactly 3% every week. The lowest I've heard of is 0.65% and the highest I heard of was about 4.2%. If you're not familiar, 3% per week is A LOT, A LOT OF MONEY. Especially if you reinvest it and compound it. To put things into picture for you, the S&P 500 (The Market) historically yields (returns) only 8% per year annually. That means if you were to invest all of your money into the market, after a year, you would only earn an 8% return.
This may sound to good to be true, and because of this many people automatically call it a scam. Well trust me, it's not. I know someone who has been in this for at least 2 years, possibly even 3 years by this point. He has never had a single issue with NovaTech and he has made a ton of money. He found out about it, tested it for 6 months. Then told someone else. After a year, he told his brother. His brother is married to my moms best friend. The brother and his wife told my mom about it, so I checked it out with her. They were involved with this for 6 months before telling us and they never had an issue. I'm now making enough money on a weekly basis that I haven't had a job since March '22 and live completely off of my investment income.
Now I need to put this into perspective for you, because I have never heard of NovaTech losing money. So for a forex trader, 3% per week is not a lot of money. That's next to nothing for them. I trade forex myself. When I was taught, you are taught to never risk no more than 2% of your entire account balance per trade and that you should try to make 8% per day. Most forex traders I know do this easily. NovaTech uses automated trading AND they have professional traders trading the funds of the investors on behalf of the company.
They set really risk adverse standards and have a strategy that allows them to make money every week consistently whether the market goes up or goes down. I know that is it 100% possible to do this, because when I trade forex, I usually open 2 trades per position, one long and one short. This way I can make money whether the market goes up or down and I either just close the opposite position or or I reopen the 1st position and wait for the initial 2nd position turn into a profit as well. A lot of forex traders I know also do this, which is why we can make 8% per day very easily.
I started with only $1000 in NovaTech to try it out just to make sure I wouldn't lose all of my money. I made many deposits after a period of time and I have almost always reinvested my profit each week to keep it growing. I now have $53K in my account and earn about $1500 per week right now. I mostly re-invest my weekly profit, but when I need to, I just make a withdrawal for money to live off of it I need it if I'm not profitable with my other manual trading.
To get started, you need to enroll. It's best to have a sponsor. I will be your sponsor. https://frankgray.novatechfx.com/enroll/
After you enroll and sign up, you can get started.
Next, you need to fund your PAMM account. To do this you have to deposit crypto to NovaTech, then they credit your account. They convert your crypto, I use BTC (Bitcoin), into USDT. USDT (United States Dollar Tether) is a pegged crypto currency. Every $1 cryptro token (coin) of USDT is pegged to $1 United States Dollar. This is how they are able to keep your deposited amount in the form of dollars that are not subject to price risk of crypto currency itself. They trade USDT against other crypto currencies to do crypto forex trading. Here's a quick video on how to fund your account:
You can skip the first part about signing up and paying for an account. You either no longer need to pay for an account or it's free if you're sponsored. I'm not exactly sure about this because I was sponsored. Like to funding account: https://youtu.be/-DDrvwI3ZBg
The money you deposit get put into your "trading account". That is the account that the computers and traders use for trading funds. They payout your weekly profit into the "bonus" account. You can "upgrade your account" to reinvest your weekly profit in your bonus account into your trading account. NovaTech pays weekly profit every Friday. That's right, Friday is payday. I typically reinvest my Friday payday bonus account profit right back into my trading account on Friday.
This is important because if you want to reinvest, it's best to do it the day you get paid, because they start using the funds in your trading account the next day. You only get credited profit for the amount that you have in your trading account because that is the amount that goes into the pot of funds for all of the trading to earn profits.
So if you wait until Monday to deposit and reinvest your weekly payout, you don't start earning money on those funds until the day you deposit so you lose 2 days of trading and making money. This will yield you less than the average of 3% per week on those paid-out funds.
Just so you know and don't get sketched out, they have a really shitty website and really shitty servers because they are not in the United States, but Saint George. I thought this was a red flag but then I got used to it. On payday Fridays, every Friday, the website is super slow and times out a lot because so many people are on it and reinvesting or withdrawing their funds. So I either reinvest first thing in the morning at like 7am or 8am or I wait until the evening after 6pm and then the website is usually fine.
Here are some videos from NovaTech's website about them: https://youtu.be/1p6_84OeMhY
- Intro https://youtu.be/ZddZuo7aTw4
- Is Bitcoin the only crypto worth buying? https://youtu.be/NBTd5gNAjKU
- Message from the Founder and CEO
4 Systems That the Paper Pulp Egg Tray Machine Undergoes
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Egg tray making machines use waste paper pulp to produce egg trays, egg cartons, and egg boxes. Based on the latest statistics, there is a huge demand in most countries for egg tray making machines as a result of surge in egg consumption. People desire to store eggs safely to make sure they don’t crack and increase wastage after a while.
The main advantage of buying a paper pulp egg tray machine (cómo hacer bandejas de carton
) is you can use almost any sort of waste paper within it. Its hydraulic pulper can mash even tough papers making a thick paste away from them by mixing an appropriate quantity of water. Egg tray manufacturers use old books, craft paper, old newspapers, and in many cases raw wood pulp in the mixing chamber to help make the trays.
Making of egg trays
An egg tray making machine (precios de maquinas para hacer cubetas de huevos) experiences four stages before offering the desired volume of egg trays. Here’s a short breakdown of the stages and exactly how the device works:
https://preview.redd.it/6xznobl89e3a1.jpg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=86a9945a746adcb6e7e194513af2cf136ba308c6 1.Pulp making system
The hydraulic pulper mashes the waste paper and converts them into a rough pulp. This stage uses a tiny bit of water that is sufficient to break the waste paper down and make up a thick paste. The thick paste has to pass through a pulp beater that refines the rough pulp further. Additionally, there is a concentration chamber that ensures the pulp’s consistency. The pulp flows in the formation pool after adjustments within the concentration chamber.
Just about the most crucial parts of an egg tray making machine may be the forming machine. This is actually the part that offers contour around the pulp and will make it appear to be an egg tray. A vacuum pump in the machine absorbs the pulp in limited quantities and converts them into different kinds of egg trays in accordance with the mold die you set on the top. The environment compressor of the vacuum pump blows the mold so the suction pressure can give shape to the pulp.
The egg trays that form inside of the forming machine (https://www.bestoneco.com/como-hacer-bandejas-de-carton/
) check out the drying chamber next. You will find three varieties of drying systems, according to the machine you buy: first, you are able to dry the trays under the sun. This can be suitable for small companies that don’t have money to invest in a semi-automatic or fully automatic drying system. Second, there is an automatic conveyor dryer made out of bricks. It could dry approximately 2000 trays hourly. Third, apply for a completely automatic metal dryer. These are expensive but could dry over 3000 trays each hour.
The egg trays get stacked employing a packing machine after drying. Stacking saves a lot of packing space and reduces transportation costs. In order to make both egg boxes and egg trays, you will require yet another hot press machine. The new press machine helps to make the egg boxes hard and smooth.
A paper pulp egg tray machine is a worthy investment if you would like start an egg tray selling business (Bestongroup
). There is certainly always a very high demand for egg trays from manufacturers that can provide premium quality trays in a pocket-pinch price.
How To Get Your Own Semi Automatic Egg Tray Machine
submitted by ariellee000 to u/ariellee000 [link] [comments]
Are you considering obtaining a company that could offer you a semi automatic egg tray making machine? In case you are, it is likely that you are searching for an egg tray making machine that may be not as expensive as the fully automated systems that a lot of people use today. It could be that you will be with limited funds, or you might be seeking a company that may be offering this because you possess an abundance of workers that can take up area of the workload. No matter what your reasoning, a semi automatic egg tray machine can simply improve the amount of egg trays that you can to make.
Exactly What Do Semiautomated Egg Tray Machines Do
In case you have the one that is fully automatic, it will start with the paper pulp process, converting the recycled paper in a slurry of materials which you can use within the molds. You should have a great number of molds from which to choose. These will all be heated, through an oven, as well as other home heating system, that allows you to solidify that material into the egg trays. All this is completed with all the semiautomated units, but the main differences there is no conveyor belt system attached. You will need to manually stack the trays once they are completed, or you will have to move these people to the area in which the eggs are rolling out to enable them to be put inside the trays.
Would It Be Worth Spending Less?
If you are planning to obtain one simply because you would like to spend less, you need to consider regardless of whether here is the best decision. Fully automated systems are faster, typically have a greater production value, and therefore are much better to use. If you absolutely have some expertise in this industry, and also have perhaps made egg trays manually before, the semi automated egg tray machine could be exactly what you need for the business. It will likely be considerably faster than manually producing them, plus you save money simply by making this sort of purchase. Case here: https://www.bestongroup.com/egg-tray-machine/philippines/
The Length Of Time Will It Take For It To Reach?
It will likely arrive with a month or so in your facility. The set up time will never take extended at all. If it is the semiautomated unit, these will probably be about the same size being a fully automated system without the conveyor belt that is typically used. If you are ready to order one, you will need to contact as much companies as you possibly can that could provide you with estimates in the sum total. You are going to then evaluate each system in relation to the output potential and the price of each system they are offering.
Upon having these estimates, and you have made your decision, you could possibly recognize that a semi automatic egg tray making machine
is precisely what you want. They will produce a large number of egg trays each hour is required, yet it does not be as easy as having an automated system. When you are able to purchase one, begin to make your request today for such systems that will help you boost your business.
Hi, here are some insights I learned over the last 7 years of forex trading.
Hi, I’ve been a gambler- I mean… forex trader for 7 years now. I’m an account manager for 2 prop firms, a MQL4/5 developer, and have done some consulting for a couple minor forex education companies. Thought I’d share some insights I wish I knew sooner. With how volatile the economy is and with inflation making it difficult to make ends meet, now more than ever I think forex can benefit the population. Disclaimer: I ain’t the smartest guy. I have no formal education on forex. I’m self taught and there’s plenty of gaps in my knowledge. Take all of this with a grain of salt. submitted by BlehhNinja to Forex [link] [comments]
Insight #1: When I was new to forex I traded as many pairs as possible. Learned all the correlations and indexes. I did not want to miss out on any trade opportunities. This resulted in me doing waaaaay more work than necessary. Today I only trade XAUUSD. It’s all I need to turn a profit. I passed the prop firm evaluations only trading gold. Since it’s all I trade, I’m very familiar with it. I highly recommend choosing just 1-2 currency pairs and master them. Specifically, I recommend XAUUSD. Love it.
Insight #2: Stop paying for broad general forex education. I gained more benefit from courses that focused purely on trading strategies rather than explaining what a pip is.
Insight #3: It is very possible to “crack the code.” I HIGHLY recommend learning MQL4/5. This is how I passed my first prop firm test. Even if you make a simple TP/SL bot or a script that sends you a mobile notification when certain market conditions are met, it’ll make trading much easier. I was able to piece by piece convert my strategy into code. And now I honestly feel like I have the easiest job in the world because I have a bot that does the heavy lifting for me. There’s lots of information on the internet about MQL4/5.
Insight #4: Use MT4’s strategy tester and or backtest AT LEAST 2 years of price data before going live. (I backtested 15 years of data before applying to the prop firms). Think you’re onto something? Convert your strategy into code and backtest the last couple years. (Preferably more years than less). You’ll learn really quick whether your strategy works or not. Or maybe it almost works and just needs some refinement. I wish I started doing this sooner. I didn’t start doing this until year 6 of trading. In the last year I’ve done more refinement than I have in all my previous years combined. You’ll quickly find where the markets were most volatile. Those are the best times to backtest to see if your strategy works during those times. From my experience, if your strategy was profitable during the worst months, it’ll be profitable for any month. Don’t pay for MT4 price data, it’s free if you just Google for it.
Insight #5: It’s okay to take breaks. After year 2 I quit for a year. Then came back, quit again for a few more months. I kept trying and failing a lot over a span of a few years. Around year 5 is when things changed for me. After awhile you know what works and more importantly, what does not work.
Insight #6: Don’t quit your day job/find a day job you like. I still coach kids 4 days a week even though financially I don’t need it. Coaching kids was my job before forex. It’s easy to become detached from humanity if all you do is forex. Go outside. Serve your community. Donate your money and time. It’s good for your health. Feel free to disagree with me here, this is just my opinion.
Insight #7: Don’t strategy hop. Find a strategy that works for you and stick to it. I’m guilty of buying a course on a new strategy, backtest ~3 months of it, get super hyped up, pay $1000 for a prop firm and fail because I combined the new strategy with previous strategies. If you want to combine strategies, backtest it first. If strategy 1 is 80% accurate and strategy 2 is 90% accurate, that doesn’t mean together they are 85% accurate. If you combine them it will usually end up being less than 50% accurate. I don’t have a mathematical explanation why, but this has been my experience. It’s kinda hilarious when I think about it.
Insight #8: I’ve yet to find a free indicator that works. MA’s and ADX have practical uses when combined with other variables. I use those two to measure market volatility. But I don’t recommend going through all the free indicators on TradingView. I spent countless hours doing that. If someone develops an indicator that works, it won’t be free.
Insight #9: Even if you use an EA, it still requires technical analysis. Heck, my EA only works cause I’m constantly adjusting its settings based on my technical analysis. So if you use an EA, don’t expect it to be hands free.
Insight #10: Less is more. Back when I traded purely manually without an EA, I had the best results when I only aimed to win 1 trade a day, 3 days a week. Find your threshold for over trading. My threshold was 1 trade. If I lost, I was done for the day. If I won, I was also done for the day. It makes things less stressful.
If I think of more insights I’ll post them here. If you have any questions feel free to comment. There are no dumb questions. It’s late here in California, I’ll do my best to answer your questions tomorrow when I wake up. Hope this helps!
Mods, I think I followed all the rules. Please let me know if I need to modify my post.
Edit 1: I’ll go more in depth on my strategy in the morning. Almost 1am here in Cali, gonna get some rest.
7e Darkest Dungeon (sorry in advance for wrong flair)
submitted by zetauispxbxbz to callofcthulhu [link] [comments]
Hello keepers and investigators!
I have been writing a storyline for Call of Cthulhu 7e based off of darkest dungeon, and I would like a little help with characters. I of course will be allowing players to make their own original characters for this, but I think it may be beneficial to have a repertoire of the classic cast of the video game in case a player wants to base their character off of them or even just play as the "basic" character. My original plan was to go through the roster and build them all myself, but life is rather busy for me at the moment, and so I would like to conscript some help from you. So if you're familiar with Darkest Dungeon (and if you're not, I highly recommend it) it would mean a lot to me if you could stop by here and leave how you would build one or two of the heroes. Some ground rules:
- Call of Cthulhu 7e, using Cthulhu by Gaslight since it feels about closest to the time period of DD. If a particular character requires something from another source, that's fine by me, but I would like to keep things as concise as possible.
- The characters will start as normal investigators, but as they survive the horrors, I may introduce some pulp rules as they begin to become heroes.
- Capturing the spirit of the character means more than capturing them 1-to-1, so no worries if its not perfect
in case you aren't aware of the characters in Darkest Dungeon or if its just been a while, here's the roster:
- Abomination: Beaten, branded and imprisoned for untold decades, this furtive vagrant hides a terrible secret. The Eldritch poison coursing through his veins has given him unspeakable power, at a terrible cost. (I feel will be the hardest to recreate but hey, go crazy)
- Antiquarian: A scholar, researcher, and keen archaeologist, The Antiquarian is not well suited for combat. She is, however, an expert in self-preservation - by making herself scarce in a fight, or demanding an ally protect her.
- Arbalest: Clad in heavy armor and able to vanquish foes with her massive crossbow, she is like a living embodiment of a cannon. Her life of war has given her many skills for battle, and she also learned how to dress and treat wounds, and can apply makeshift healing in the field. Given enough time at camp, she can treat the wounds of all her allies, or she may spend her night tending to her crossbow, her one companion since childhood. As long as she is given ample distance between herself and her quarry, no foe is safe from this sharpshooter's wrath
- Bounty Hunter: Sinister and precise, the Bounty Hunter specializes in targeting a single foe to deliver its head for the reward. He has found that simply striking before thinking is an ineffective way to kill, so he has taught himself many ways to take advantage of his foe's vulnerabilities.
- Crusader: Every cause needs a champion, a hero to rally otherwise common men to a righteous cause and lead them to victory. The Crusader is that champion. With holy blade in hand he smites the wicked and sends them back to the darkness from whence they crept. No matter the pressures he faces he will remain strong, finding strength within himself to keep fighting on while inspiring others to do the same. Even in the midst of battle he can galvanize his allies, giving them the strength to fight off madness for a little longer. When the Crusader is leading the charge, all of hell will know to fear the flame.
- Graverobber: A disgraced noble turned to stealing from the dead to maintain her lifestyle, the Graverobber cares little for the typical reservations around how she makes her money. Armed with throwing knives and a pick axe, she prefers to skulk about the shadows, striking when advantageous
- Hellion: Wild, unpredictable, and utterly ruthless, the Hellion thrills to the spilling of blood! Her massive glaive affords her impressive reach in combat, while its razor sharp edge leaves lasting wounds on enemies.
- Highwayman: A bandit seeking redemption on an old road... He can be placed in both the front ranks and rend enemies with his short sword, or he can pursue enemies from the back with his trusty pistol. He has a lower HP value than most classes, but makes up for this with high evasion.
- Houndmaster: A tough and uncommonly compassionate ex-lawman, the Houndmaster and his faithful Wolfhound work in tandem to bring down their enemies and protect the innocent.
- Jester: In the darkest depths of these twisted lands few things are as welcomed as a good laugh, a merry song, and razor sharp blade. The Jester brings all of these in spades. Armed with a sickle and lute, this maniacal minstrel is a versatile class that has several tricks up his sleeves.
- Leper: Struggle, and futility — all one's days are a constant toil to shelter life's ember through one more night. The Leper not only knows but embraces such solemnity. Tortured existence has taught him to count not on the care of others. He has learned to channel his energy inward, a kingdom within one man. His power can neither serve nor comfort others; but, drawing on it, he can gain strength others can but dream of, or the endurance to bear what no other could. And when his massive blade falls, death's call rings loud to all caught in its thunderous arc. However, such force falls not nimbly, and foes may lightly evade their execution. His dread sickness has given the Leper his name surely as it has taken his body. While looking upon such maligned flesh may revolt those he shares the firelight with, true companionship he can always find, meditating on his lofty blade — a once officious weapon, now broken as the man who wields it. In the end, all will meet with death. The Leper sets his sights only on ensuring as many of the twisted horrors of this land as possible attend their final appointment, until his own may be postponed no more.
- Man-at-Arms: An old, battle-scarred veteran, the Man-at-Arms has seen enough war and bloodshed to last more than a dozen lifetimes. While he can no longer swing his great mace with the force he once could, you should not stand where he swings his mighty weapon. However it is not offense, but his defense, that makes the Man-at-Arms such a vital member of any team. His ability to read the enemy's movements allows him to draw fire to himself to defend his allies and then retaliate with surprising force.
- Musketeer: A champion markswoman - keen for a new kind of challenge. The musketeer is a competitive sharpshooter whose aim is deadly (in DD shes just a reskin of the arbalest, so she'd be the same, just with a gun instead of a crossbow unless someone comes up with another idea)
- Occultist: Knowledge - the poison of man. Since time began, it has been the folly of men such as the Ancestor. Many have sought it out, but those who discover the truth of this world's secrets have found the revelations too much to bear. The Occultist, however, has utilized that same knowledge to further his understanding of the eldritch. His pursuits in antediluvian apprehension have left his body fragile and weak, but it has made his mind sharp and his capabilities most versatile.
- Plague Doctor: A doctor, researcher and alchemist who views the battlefield as her own laboratory, with the monsters prowling the land and her own party as test subjects.
- Vestal: A warrior nun cast from her monastery to seek penance for her sinful ways and desires, the Vestal's faith shields her and her allies in battle while she channels it to smite her foes. When faith is not enough, her mace and plated armor does the rest.
- Flagellant: If there was ever such a thing as ‘weaponized suffering’, then the Flagellant would be the term made flesh. This man is unique among the various heroes in the sense that he thrives on the ruin of his mind and body. Whereas every sane member of your band of mercenaries aims to minimize wounds and disability, the Flagellant welcomes them. He will stand like a wall between his comrades and his foes, with his arms wide open, his body exposed, acting like a magnet for all harm that may come their way. His power lies within the martyrdom, and it is something that transcends physical laws: every action of violence that lands on his tortured corpus creates not an equal, but a far more potent reaction. He converts damage in either powerful healing for his allies, or horrifying punishment for his enemies in the form of insanely powerful bleeding attacks. And the more the minions of darkness try to end his life, the stronger he becomes, since his strength is at its summit when he himself is at the brink of death… or madness. How far are you willing to push him? Because the desire for power can cloud judgement, and sometimes pushing too far can have… dire consequences. (I also have no idea how this would work)
- Shieldbreaker: Hailing from the distant windswept dunes of the east, the Shieldbreaker arrives in the Hamlet! Deadly as a viper, her iron will has been forged in the heat of the blazing desert sun. Though outwardly demure, her emancipation from the barren wastes came at a price so terrible, it haunts her dreams even now...
This is not time sensitive, so dont worry about taking you time with this :). if you have any ideas or suggestions on how to run something like this as well, i welcome and tips and tricks, as while i have experience with tabletop games and even with call of cthulhu, i physically cannot know everything, so dont be shy about sharing! thank you for reading this and for taking any time you may to help me with this project of mine!
Lessons from my past and my current trading strategy
Hi all. submitted by Stoopiddogface to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]
Ive been tossing around the idea of putting up this post for a while now. Its the sort of thing that I wish someone had posted back when I started, or began to delve into crypto.
My background on why you should, or shouldn't listen to me (obligatory NFA statement here). Im a regular working guy, I have a family I support, I wanted to learn trading first forex, then some stocks and slipped into crypto...I bought my 1st crypto (BTC) in 2018 right after BTC broke under 10k, I bought in at around 4k... I was impatient/scared of the "dip" and sold for a loss somewhere along the line shortly afterwards... I later bought in on the hype early 2021. I kept averaging in as ETH broke above 2k, 3k, 4k... I kick my ass here bc it was fully-unhinged-pandemonium in here and I should have bailed (i was greedy)... I got wiped TF out, heavy following SNL hype. I was overextended and put in more than I could afford... I sold for a loss, licked my wounds and liquidated my account. Except for some BTC/ETH that I sent to blockfi that was a PITA and i didnt want to move it...
Ok, so whats different now? and what am I doing differently? Ive changed my focus from chasing price/watching charts. Simply put im staking and LPing. Why? because it has pulled my emotions out of the game now... When it was just me watching charts i could pull $ at any time and any progress was just unrealized gains until I did (I never took profits, I was greedy like that). Now Im working an APR approach where the asset price means less...
Now my approach is Cosmos centered. Im going to reference those projects bc thats what I know and am working...
My top 3 bags are
Runners up (that Im building): SCRT, AKT.
Pooling (on Osmosis) ATOM/OSMO, JUNO/OSMO, EVMOS'OSMO. All of these w superfluid staking.
On these projects, w current staking APRs Im pulling about $4-$5 per day out of the market. Its not life changing, but its net + income of about $120/month. These funds are reinvested to compound my positions.
So for the past weeks Ive been letting my staking rewards build up... I took it all and converted it to USDC. Ive been doing this every day w/ Staking/Pooling rewards. As we dipped I have "free" money to scoop up some ATOM. Since were all a little red today Im letting my rewards just chill unclaimed, once price recovers ill trade the rewards to USDC and leave that sit for the next wave of red days...
Im also doing my bi-weekly deposit of $50-$75 (whatever I can afford) into ATOM on the CEX which I promptly trade for USDC and let it sit idle for dips like today... So now my average is down, my token count is up and Im making money every day...
Im open to any dialogue. if youre new especially, Id be happy to let ya pick my brain... Ive definitely been stupid money. Ive made rookie mistakes. and i have had my head on backwards while being convinced that its on straight... But this system seems to be working for me, for now.
TL;DR : Staking on cosmos = daily money = peace of mind on turbulent days.
Edit: And dont panic sell!
Pakistan’s Next Crisis is Guaranteed
This was originally posted at https://brettongoods.substack.com/p/pakistans-next-crisis-is-guaranteed submitted by bretton-goods to neoliberal [link] [comments]
- Pakistan’s current economic crisis is caused by a spike in oil and gas prices leading to a sharp drop in foreign exchange reserves. The government has reserves worth a month of imports and would not have met their debt commitments without an IMF bailout.
- This is not the first IMF bailout for Pakistan: it’s the 23rd! The problem is not only about this specific crisis, but that the Pakistani economy has extremely poor policy that makes economic growth almost impossible. It is inevitable then, that economic crises happen so often.
- The reason why this happens is because the Pakistani elite do not want it! They do not have the incentives to increase economic growth whether due to corruption, military control of the government and or general incompetence. Until this changes, it is very likely that Pakistan will have low economic growth, and inevitably more crises like this
From Crisis to Crisis
The current economic crises in Pakistan
and Sri Lanka
(both articles from Noah Smith, recommended) might seem like they’re because of this moment. It might seem as if the crisis is because of a specific action taken by a specific person (like the Sri Lankan debt binge in 2019), or because of some unlucky event (like the Russian invasion of Ukraine which raised food and energy prices). But when you look at the economic history of post independence Pakistan, it doesn’t seem like this was a one off thing. The country has had 23 IMF bailouts since independence, and it doesn’t seem as if any of them has led to structural change.
The imports go boom
The immediate reason for Pakistan’s crisis is simple: they will run out of foreign exchange reserves and not have much to pay their foreign currency debts. They will run out of foreign exchange reserves because their central bank sold most of them in defending the currency’s value.
The central bank had a problem: in 2022, the Russian invasion of Ukraine led to higher energy and food prices. Pakistan’s largest import
is petroleum, its second largest is gas and its third largest is crude oil. The current spike
in oil prices from about $70/barrel to $120/barrel and spike in natural gas
means that the country’s import bill increases. It is very hard to have a lesser quantity of oil and gas because it’s so important to several functions like electricity and transportation, so consumers end up accepting the price increase
in the short term. So, for countries that have to import these products, it ends up in a higher import bill for them. Pakistan’s imports in June are up 16%
over May’s, and 24% over last June’s.
The problem is that when your imports exceed your exports (and in the absence of foreign investment), this usually leads to the currency depreciating. Pakistan not only has had more imports than exports, but also has had declining foreign investment
, which means that there is strong selling pressure on the currency. Fewer people want to buy Pakistani rupees and more want to sell them. The State Bank of Pakistan tried to reduce the effect of this by buying Pakistani Rupees and selling foreign currency. But the selling pressure was so strong that they were close to running out of money. In August 2021 the SBP had about
20 billion USD of foreign exchange reserves. On 15th July, they had only 9.3 billion of reserves.
The problem is that in the last month, Pakistan imported
about $7.8 bn of goods and services and exported only $2.9 billion worth of items. It is likely that the import bill increases, due to increasing gas prices, and the currency depreciates more. Should the SBP want to defend the currency’s value, they’ll be facing stronger selling pressures and will have to spend more to defend the currency’s value.
Paying the money back
The other problem is that Pakistan has a serious external debt problem. The country has about
$100 billion in foreign denominated liabilities, out of which $81 billion is government debt. Out of that $81 billion, about a billion comes due in less than a year. It is almost guaranteed that the numbers from the PBS in the link above (from March) are an understatement
, as the government has been borrowing rapidly in the financial markets.
The problem is that the massive fall
in the PKR’s value has meant that it takes a lot more PKR than it used to to pay the foreign denominated debt. The Pakistani government will have to spend much more on debt payments than it used to.
It is unlikely that the government will not have the money to pay its debts over the long run. Financial markets have recognised this and Pakistani bond prices have fallen
about 40% in the last few months. It is possible that the country won’t have enough foreign exchange reserves to make foreign bond payments, and if it does, it will be at the expense of spending the money somewhere else important.
for more on it
Some facts about the economy make it almost inevitable that they will have foreign exchange crises.
For almost all countries that do not produce fossil fuels at home, they end up importing them. This is true for China
. (America became a net exporter
of oil in 2019, but might return
to being a net importer this year). Pakistan has multiple problems in its energy sector. The first is that everytime the price of oil and gas increases, their import bill also increases.
A higher import bill is one problem. The government taking the cost of imports on the fiscal makes it worse.
More Money More Problems
Every government faces political problems when energy prices rise. But Pakistan is probably unique in trying to solve those problems with subsidies that are unsustainable. In the previous fiscal year
, there were power subsidies of about 378bn PKR versus a budgetary allocation of only ~150bn PKR. In this fiscal year, they would be about 500bn PKR making about 5% of the budget.
The problem here is clear. When the government commits to subsidising fuel if the price goes up, it takes an implicit liability on its budget. If fuel prices go up, it has to increase spending at the same time when the balance of payments is facing stress. This will make fuel cheaper, and instead of rationing the quantity of fuel via higher prices, will encourage its consumption leading to a higher subsidy cost. The government is converting a balance of payments problem to both a balance of payments problem and a fiscal problem.
You can model the Pakistani government as sort of being short the price of oil and natural gas, and that has been a terrible trade so far.
The government seems very committed
to keeping them, in light of the upcoming elections in 2023 (although they do know the risks
Power Problems II
And along with the subsidies, the other problem is that for the same political reasons, the previous government refused to increase energy prices
even after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and only when the new government came did they increase the price of power
(and that too barely)
The other problem is that many of the subsidies that the government promises to power distribution companies do not get paid. This paper
estimates it at about 12% of GDP, although the IMF puts it at around 6% of GDP. Regardless of the actual number, this is a serious problem! If power distribution companies do not get the subsidies they are promised, they are unable to make payments to anyone up the supply chain. Which makes the existing problem of higher prices worse by increasing the number of problems in transmitting electricity.
The Budget Problem
Along with the Power Problems, Pakistan has another serious problem. It does not collect very much in taxes, but spends as if it did. To cover the difference the government borrows money, usually in foreign currency.
We Don’t Pay Taxes Here
Pakistan has a low tax to GDP ratio of about 13% which is far lower than comparable countries (Thailand at 17%, India at almost 18% and Turkey at 18%). There are a few reasons why this happens. The first is that the government is under political pressure to give exemptions to political supporters, especially right before elections. Along with that the direct tax base is very narrow. Only 2.9 million Pakistanis pay income tax out of a population of 220 million people. There are also several exemptions to the sales taxes which reduce the amount of revenue
The current sales tax system is also very fragmented with provinces collecting services tax and the federal government collecting the goods tax. The system as a whole is cumbersome and hard to deal with. Along with that, there are several negative effects of the current tax system. There is no mechanism to claim tax credits on inputs, and so exporters face higher costs compared to other countries
The Debt Problem
For many countries of Pakistan’s development level, it is generally harder to borrow large amounts at long durations domestically. The local debt markets wouldn’t be able to support large amounts at long durations and even if they did, the interest rates would be much higher. So, governments choose to borrow in foreign currency above. As said above, they have about 80 billion in foreign debt (which is an understatement given it is likely that the government has borrowed more in the last year).
The sharp fall in the Pakistani rupee’s value means that the cost of servicing the debt too would have increased, and put a further strain on the already limited foreign exchange reserves. The foreign debt creates a serious foreign exchange constraint for Pakistan
. The country has to generate enough foreign currency to service its debt or risk defaulting on it and being cut off from the financial markets.
The oil spike is bad luck, subsidising oil during the oil spike is bad policy, the long term problem of low tax collections are worse than that, but borrowing money in foreign currency to fund expenditures is the ultimate sin.
Debt by itself is not bad, but the problem is that Pakistani governments are using it to spend it on expenditures and not productive investments.
All of these make foriegn exchange crises more likely. The reason why other countries manage to avoid this is because they have economic growth that keeps money flowing in. A very good way to avoid repeated economic crises is to have consistent economic growth.
The Growth Problem
And the previous 1600 or so words are only hinting towards what is Pakistan’s biggest problem. Its economy is unproductive, and is not growing to the extent to which its political aspirations ask for. It is not wrong for Pakistani voters to ask that they don’t spend over half their incomes (see the CPI basket here
) on food and energy. But the problem is that their incomes are not growing fast enough.
There are three parts to this. First, productivity growth in Pakistan has been low and declining
. Second, this is caused in large part by onerous government regulation and command of the economy. Finally, everything described above is a symptom of the above two problems.
A small caveat: Pakistan is not very poor, but has had slow growth
relative to its neighbour India, and Bangladesh (which was part of the country from 1947-71).
Productivity is (almost) everything
For an economy to grow, you need capital and labour. More machines and more people, make countries richer. But the problem is that only adding more machines and people can’t go on forever. Countries also have to use them productively. It makes little sense to have increasing use of factors like capital and labour if they’re not being used productively. Except for a few periods, this has been the case in Pakistan. Most economic growth has come from adding
more resources to the Pakistani economy, and it is only in a few decades that economic growth has come from productivity improvements rather than adding capital and labour.
You can see examples of this in multiple places, but I’m going to focus on one extreme one: exports. Pakistani exports are concentrated in a few low value products
and in very few firms
. The top 25 firms make about a quarter of Pakistan’s total exports, and all of them in textiles. Exports are good because they cause firms to compete in the global market and make them more productive
. They also lead to foreign exchange earnings which help the balance of payments problem.
The productivity problem also shows up in the size of firms. Just like India
, Pakistan has too many small firms. As this World Bank article notes
, the average small firm in Pakistan has only two employees. And the diagnosis of the problem is that the Pakistani economy has a productivity problem.
Big Government, Big Problems
The Pakistani government bears responsibility for their low productivity in two ways. First the onerous regulation that pervades much of the economy keeps the country poor, and corruption high. Second, the state owned enterprise sector takes up too much capital and is very unproductive.
It is very hard to start a firm in Pakistan. It takes about 17 days and costs about 6% of your annual income. This makes new firm entry very hard, and means that existing firms are protected and more productive new firms don’t enter the market. And even after they do start it, running one is difficult. Regulatory laws are poorly enforced
and government inspectors are commonly corrupt.
The tax system also makes it harder to export. States and provincial governments have a mix of indirect taxation powers which leads to regulatory uncertainty for firms. Many times products are taxed twice by both of them and they can’t claim credits for it. The GST does not allow firms to deduct input GST costs which makes them disadvantaged globally. It is also very hard to import capital goods in Pakistan because of the tariffs involved in importing them. This reduces exports because these imports are used to produce items that will be exported again later.
Worst of all, the uncertainty leads to a focus on low value exports (about 60% of exports are textiles comprising simple linen, knitwear etc and another 20% is food like rice and fish).
Capital Sucking SOEs
Pakistan has a problem: its state owned companies are very unproductive. The usual problems for all state owned companies exist here. SOE managers are poorly motivated, poorly incentivised and poorly run.
Out of 213 SOEs, only 85 are commercial (for making money) versus strategic (for some national purpose like energy security for example). Non financial commercial SOEs had assets amounting to 44% of GDP but generated only 0.4% of employment. Despite having 44% of GDP in terms of assets, their revenues amounted to only 14% of GDP. Revenues aren’t counted in GDP though, profits are. The net profit of Pakistani SOEs has been negative since 2014 and over one third of them have consistently lost money
Credit too is extended to the SOEs far above the private sector. Bank loans to the government and SOEs grew at more than double the rate of private sector bank loan growth from 2019 to 2021. To add to all of this, SOEs have contingent liabilities of more than 7% of GDP which would be a burden on the government budget if the contingencies occur.
The Reform Problem
Nothing I’ve said above is new. Pakistani economists have been lamenting for years that structural reforms aren’t happening. Here is former Pakistani Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz all the way back in 1999
Pakistan was in severe economic crisis. We were known as a "one-tranche country". We used to take one tranche from the IMF. We were constantly in Fund programs. We would violate all the conditions of the program and it would be stalled, and then we would go back. This was the routine more or less. We had severe balance-of-payments problems. We did not know how to meet our foreign exchange expenses beyond a certain day. Our debts were technically in default; some were past due and no new credit was available from the market Source: Asia Society
IMF reports have said this since 2001 (from when the first digital reports are available). And even today, the need for structural reforms is well known. Here is Atif Mian from last week: https://twitter.com/AtifRMian/status/1549803193634283525
So why aren’t Pakistani politicians taking action? After all the problems are clear. Their solutions too are clear. It is just not clear how they can implement them and stay in power.
Elections make it difficult
It is almost an article of faith that getting re-elected for a government requires cheap energy and food prices. After all, they form a majority of Pakistan’s consumption basket. And to be fair to the government, they did try. They signed natural gas deals in 2015
with Russia and one with Qatar
this year. And the Russian invasion did make it difficult by increasing oil and gas prices which in the extreme cases led to blackouts
and rationing. Pakistani politicians have the strongest incentive to do anything and everything to get the lights back on. It is unsurprising that they chose to subsidise oil and gas and put price controls.
The Elite Bargain
The deeper problem beyond the impulse to subsidise energy is that the Pakistani establishment does not have
an elite bargain that leads to good economic policy. What does that mean? In every country the major political parties and other important stakeholders (the public, military and the media) agree on a set of norms.
They agree on the goal of the government (in China that was very explicitly to get powerful via economic growth), and to a lesser extent, the means to do it. In Pakistan, the problem is that it is each for himself. The major political parties do not take the actions needed to increase economic growth (like reducing the regulations for businesses or reducing the import tariffs) because they do not see the point in it.
Sometimes there are important stakeholders that prevent reform. The Pakistani Army via the Fauji Foundation and other trusts controls several businesses (one of the first search suggestions in the dropbox is “Fauji Foundation cement”), and they have a great deal of political power
in the country. The army is widely believed to control the government from the inside, and it would not be surprising if they had stopped trade liberalisation to protect their core financial interests.
Pakistani politicians themselves
make large amounts from corruption, and it would make sense for them to keep the show running as it is because it personally benefits them. A more liberalised economy would lead to their existing sources of rent being destroyed and new people coming in place.
I’m more or less convinced that unless the government has a change of heart and decides to fight the special interests that force it to have such poor economic policy, these crises are inevitable.
And I’ll leave you with this meme
to end it
I write at brettongoods.substack.com. Follow me on Twitter at @PradyuPrasad
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