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submitted by Last Week in Collapse: November 5-11, 2022
Empty promises are made in
the desert, Iran cracks down hard against protestors, and the environment continues breaking its old patterns.
This is
Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter, compiling some of the most important, timely, helpful, demoralizing, ironic, stunning, or otherwise must-see moments in Collapse.
This is the 46th newsletter. You can find the October 29-November 4 edition
here if you missed it last week. If you don’t want to miss an edition, please consider
signing up for the SubStack email version.
The
Nile River is facing a grim future: salt water is creeping up the river because the levels are so low. The
water levels are low because Lake Victoria is gradually shrinking and upstream nations have dammed sections of the Nile(s) for irrigation or electricity generation purposes.
97% of Egypt’s population lives within a few kilometers of the Nile, Africa’s longest river. The Collapse of the Nile River may eventually throw the entire region into chaos.
COP
out27
has begun and some activists and world leaders have convened in Egypt to do…what exactly? Last year, “at the heart of the COP26” was the promise of
“the rapid phase-out of coal”. As we have now learned,
coal demand has never been higher, a result of Russia’s Energy War and the continuing coal plant construction mostly in China and India. Nothing will fundamentally change at this conference. COP28 is scheduled to take place
in Dubai!
The air in India
is really, really bad. Over 1.6M people are said to die from
air pollution in India every year. The environmental minister labeled New Delhi, the capital, a “gas chamber.” (The mostly dead subreddit
CollapseIndia could use some more attention…) India has committed to
continue using coal until at least 2040. A carbon neutral future was never in the cards.
Promises were made in COP26 to cut back on methane emissions, and
promises were broken. The
Global Methane Pledge has been a dud; only one nation has made significant progress to achieving methane reduction:
Australia. Flooding and pollution in Victoria, Australia, is leading to the
mass death of aquatic life. The smell is reportedly unbearable, and
E. Coli levels are high in the water.
Iran’s parliament voted decisively
to execute protestors to show the people a “hard lesson” in behavior. The vote supposedly sentences
all of the 15,000+ arrested protestors to death. Several hundred have already been killed during the protests.
Iraq’s President is
calling water shortage/drought Iraq’s biggest challenge right now. He blames drought, as well as upriver dams built by Iran and Turkey, which
also met last week to negotiate water issues (leaving Iraq out). We all know that
climate breakdown leads to War.
Kenya is
sending 1,000 soldiers to the “Democratic” Republic of the Congo to help manage the M23 rebel army stirring up trouble near Goma, DRC. The DRC alleges that the M23 gang/army is supported by Rwanda, because they want
the valuable minerals (tungsten, tantalum, gold, tin, etc) in eastern Congo. Could we be approaching a Franz Ferdinand moment to spark the Third Congo War—or will this sideshow get smothered in the jungle?
Tens of thousands of people have fled from M23 fighters in recent days and are building lean-to shelters in the jungle. Now
250,000+ people have become displaced in the region since March 2022.
Nearby Uganda is suffering from a growing Ebola outbreak—and overlapping
misinformation fallout—and some
officials leaked that this outbreak would become Uganda’s deadliest, leading to 1,200+ cases and 500+ deaths by May 2023. If this happened, it would become
earth’s 3rd most deadly Ebola outbreak ever. The world’s two most deadly outbreaks each occurred over the span of 2+ years. Ebola typically has a CFR of over 50%. There is a vaccine for some strains of Ebola, but
not this one; school is being canceled in the capital, Kampala.
Despite a partially effective vaccine, COVID is still among us, and it may be rising in your area.
Another researcher says that
repeated infections may almost certainly lower one’s immune system by destroying
T cells, the white blood cells that fight infections. This may be why this year’s flu/RSV season
is shaping up to be pretty bad.
Herd immunity is never coming, yet the
WHO claims that daily COVID deaths are down about 90% since February 2022. What happened?
COVID cases
hit new records—2,000+ cases per day—in Guangzhou, China, and restrictions are tightening in Beijing, and in Zhengzhou, where iPhone production has been hit hard. COVID is expected to rise in the US this fall, and in Japan, too, where the governments have given up implementing restrictions altogether. So it goes. Fear of a new pandemic may be proven right
if bird flu is one mutation away from human-to-human transmission. Plus, the mass-antibiotics consumed by poultry could be setting us up for a dangerous strain of H5N1 virus. Japan
ordered the killing of over 1M chickens after the remains of some tested positive for bird flu.
Protestors fought with police
in Lima, Peru at protests aimed at forcing their President to resign. A
similar protest happened in Ghana, too.
About 30,000 protestors turned up in Rome on Saturday,
to protest for peace in Ukraine, amid the new Italian government’s
plans to supply air defense systems to Ukraine.
Kyiv’s mayor
is warning about potential long-term blackouts that could force the winter evacuation of what was (before the war)
Europe’s 7th largest city (including Istanbul). Kyiv has already been the victim of widespread electricity & water denial attacks, but not on a city-wide scale yet. One resident said, “That's why everything that is happening now {strikes on infrastructure} is
genocide. His task is for us to die, to freeze, or to make us flee our land so that he can have it."
Russia
is pulling back its troops from Kherson city, to the eastern side of the Dnipro River.
Kherson has been liberated. But thousands of Ukrainian civilians have already been forcibly moved to the eastern side.
Most of the world is
burdened with “debt distress” and it might just bury them. That is, unless
COVID, mental health, and other ailments don’t first.
Next year
is forecast to have slightly
less oil production than 2022. Have we passed Peak Oil?
The UN put out another report last week, titled
“Integrity Matters: Net Zero Commitments by Businesses, Financial Institutions, Cities and Regions” about net zero plans and how to achieve them across many levels. I didn’t have time to read it. It seems like every week another large report is published by an intergovernmental organization or a major NGO…… Do any of you know of a singular source (a website, Twitter feed, etc.) that aggregates/shares these reports as they come out? Mere hoping that I stumble onto one of these PDFs is not a reliable way to catch them as they come in.
The World Wildlife Fund released
the “Living Amazon Report 2022” last week, and it’s basically a
death sentence for the Amazon rainforest. The
full report is 98 pages long, and it’s packed with useful graphics and data. It should be called the “Dying Amazon Report”, though…
The UN is also reportedly creating a
“global early warning system for deadly and costly extreme weather events amplified by climate change” at the cost of about $3B over 5 years. The system will theoretically be able to warn people of floods, droughts, heatwaves, storms, etc at least 24 hours before they occur. Many people
are calling some climate disasters year or even
decades in advance.
What we all knew has now been confirmed: Europe had
its hottest October on record. And on Monday, Montreal had
its hottest November day ever on record.
The contentious U.S. midterm election is over, and
Democrats overperformed expectations. Vote-counting is still ongoing in some areas, so conclusive results won’t be known for a few more days. It appears like Republicans will win a narrow majority in the House and Democrats will likely hold onto Senate control. Yet ex-President Trump is planning
his 2024 declaration for Monday. Meanwhile, in Israel,
the right-wing won and brought back former PM Netanyahu (still on trial for corruption charges).
Lebanon’s crisis
deepens, and now the UN is said to be partially funding the salaries of Lebanese soldiers in a desperate attempt to maintain order.
Protests rise in Pakistan in the aftermath of a failed assassination attempt on the former PM Imran Khan.
France’s annual maize harvest is
expected to be its lowest since 1990, a result of chronic drought. Across Africa, stricken in some regions by droughts or floods,
cultural heritage is at risk, along with much of the wildlife
and people. As drought
threatens the Serengeti’s legendary Great Migration, a new, more dangerous great migration looms…
Glaciers continue melting in India,
in China, and Greenland
ice sheets are vanishing faster than expected. Same old, same old. If you hate glaciers, you can
watch a sad timelapse of an Italian glacier melting over the course of several years.
A major name in cryptocurrency
has been disgraced and fears of the collapse of
other crypto services are swirling around.
China’s real estate crisis
continues trending downwards, but
it’s not alone. Global shipping demand
is way down too because people don’t have the money to buy as much stuff anymore—or are scared of spending whatever they have left.
Things to watch for next week include: ↠ The
homo sapiens population on Planet Earth is
set to hit 8 Billion next week. Projections have it scheduled for next Tuesday, ahead of earlier projections for 2023. The world human population grows by an average of about 70M per year. (Earth reached 7 Billion in 2011; we were at 4 billion in 1974.) In what year will our planet reach its all-time high? What do you think it will be?
Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest: -The United States (and probably elsewhere) is in the grip
pe of a flu epidemic, according to
this post and its foreboding comments. Some schools are reportedly closing down because of the sick staff/students. This
RSV is causing the
worst flu season in over a decade—and it’s probably related to the aftereffects of
Long COVID damaging our collective immune systems…and it’s only November.
-2022 was a record year for shit, according to
this post about the
Four Five Horsemen of the Economic Apocalypse: 1. boomers retiring, 2. declining EROI on oil/gas, 3. crop yield collapse, 4. rising interest rates, and 5. demand crash. Everything is interconnected, and it’s going in one direction: down.
-Reminder: COVID can have serious side effects.
Yet another thread talks about how repeated infections can compound damage to one’s body & mind. Yet society
gave up, and seems to become less and less careful/aware of COVID as time goes on…
-Full steam ahead, says
one casual Friday post about the arrogance of modern society.
Thanks for reading. Got any feedback, questions, comments, articles, complaints, collapse dating tips, hate mail, etc.? If you can’t be bothered to check
collapse every Saturday, you can join the
Last Week in Collapse SubStack and get this full roundup sent to your email inbox every weekend. I always forget some important Collapse stuff; what did I miss this week?
I debated quite a bit about whether to write these particular comments, as they delve into something that has what could be some fairly disconcerting connotations when it comes to the series as a whole. And, unlike my comments on the show, where I've seen it multiple times, I haven't read the books, and I have to therefore rely on sources describing the books (such as the wiki and TV Tropes). So, I am the first to admit that the ground under my feet is not as firm as it was for my other posts on Tanya the Evil.
But, it's something interesting to poke at, so why not? Let's talk about how the war in Tanya's world begins and how it ends, and why both can be very eyebrow-raising to anybody who is versed in 20th century military history. And the reason is that when it comes to these two aspects of the story, the Empire of Tanya's world is not an expy of Wilhelm II's Germany, but of the Imperial Japan of the Second World War.
(NOTE: Spoilers here are going to be in the open, as it is impossible to have this discussion in any reasonable way without them.)
War's Beginning
The Tanya the Evil movie begins with a framing narrative about why the world went to war against Tanya's Empire as though it was an evil force, to which the answer that is given is that they were afraid of its rising power. This isn't the first time this theory is put forward - in the scene where Tanya predicts the widening of the conflict into a world war, she does so on the grounds that the Great Powers will not permit a newcomer to equal them in strength, and will thus take whatever actions are necessary to knock them down.
The problem with this theory is that it holds no water - there are many reasons that wars start, but that's not among them.
In the real world, the Great War started in large part because the Great Powers got themselves in over their heads. They created an alliance system that enabled a regional conflict in the Balkans to draw in every single Great Powers into a world war. We call it the First World War, but that's really a misnomer - the Napoleonic Wars were fought on a worldwide scale (in many ways, the War of 1812 between Britain and the United States was an extension of this conflict), as was the Seven Years War between Britain and France. Empires going to war over everything from territorial claims/concerns to trade disputes was nothing new. But they never went to war for the sake of stopping another country from becoming powerful (Britain would choose which side to join based on preventing any one side from becoming powerful enough to dominate the continent, but that was for wars that had already started). In fact, the reaction of the Great Power system to the rising power of Wilhelm and Wilhelm II's Germany (which was established by a swift and crushing defeat of France in the Franco-Prussian War) was to welcome them into the concert of nations and give them a share in the partition of Africa so that they could have colonies of their own.
This was also the case for the rising power that was Japan. After defeating Russia in 1905 (a war in which the Japanese army was praised for its humane treatment of prisoners and the local population), Japan was recognized as one of the Great Powers, and the only non-Western nation to gain this recognition. They had a seat at the table at the negotiations of the Treaty of Versailles in 1919, and had the United States, Australia, and New Zealand not successfully opposed it, their Racial Equality Proposal would have become part of our understanding of human rights decades before the founding of the United Nations.
There really isn't any room for doubt - history shows us that a new rising power wasn't going to be shunned or beaten down, but welcomed to the table. So, why would the author of Tanya the Evil, who readers of the books have assured me in the comments to my other posts did not make the mistakes that the television show made, get something this fundamentally wrong? And, the answer is that for many Japanese (at least, from what I have seen and read and as I understand it), Imperial Japan's entry into World War II is seen as being caused by the other powers of the world being afraid of Japan's rising power in the Pacific.
Japan has a complicated relationship to the history of WW2. As a nation, they were on the same level of evil as Nazi Germany, murdering between 3-14 million civilians and POWs (who, among other things, would be used for bayonet practice). The Rape of Nanking was so brutal that it shocked the diplomats of Nazi Germany (a nation that by then had started a program to euthanize its disabled and was creating a new job category amounting to professional murderer). There is no question that Imperial Japan was one of the aggressors in the war, and that they needed to be stopped. And, there is a trend within Japanese society to want to forget this aspect of the war. There was a massive controversy when some Japanese history textbooks removed the Rape of Nanking from their account, and the entire island of Okinawa was outraged when the Japanese textbooks tried to downplay the Japanese army forcing Okinawan civilians to commit suicide. Japan's actual role in the war is shameful to the extreme (a Japanese friend of mine from University once told me that the attack on Pearl Harbour and much of WW2 just "isn't talked about" in his family), and something that a lot of Japanese people would rather forget.
(It should be noted at this time that while there are those who could claim that Japan never took responsibility for its actions or paid reparations to its victims, this is just not true. They did pay reparations into the 1950s, and the Japanese government has issued multiple apologies for the war crimes committed by Imperial Japan. So, what we are talking about is a more modern trend.)
Ending the War
The Empire's strategy for ending the war is a fairly simple one - knowing that the war isn't winnable, it's forces must inflict enough casualties that the Allied nations will negotiate a peace that will leave the Empire intact, and assign a scapegoat to take the blame for any war crimes while leaving the rest of the government intact. And if you are familiar with the history of WW2 in the Pacific, this will sound very familiar - this is the exact strategy Imperial Japan tried to use against the Allies in the final year of the war.
By the time 1945 rolled around, Imperial Japan knew that the war was no longer winnable. What was left was damage control - their victory condition changed from conquering a vast empire across the Pacific and into the Atlantic (according to page 329-330 of Gerhard Weinberg's book A World at Arms, the list of intended conquests included Australia and New Zealand, Ceylon, a large chunk of India, Alaska, Western Canada, the state of Washington, Central America, Columbia, Ecuador, Cuba, Haiti, Jamaica, and a few other islands in the Caribbean - let's just say that sanity was not involved in drawing up these war aims) to just keeping what they had. They also wanted to ensure the continuation of their government and its institutions, and to be able to end the war saying that they hadn't actually been defeated. To do this, they were going to make the Americans and any of their Allies who joined them bleed themselves dry, and if they had to turn the entirety of Japan into a charnel house to do it, so be it.
This did not have any chance of success, for a number of reasons. First, one of the agreements binding the Allies together was that they would only accept unconditional surrenders and not make a separate peace. Another was that the Japanese diplomatic codes had been broken by the Americans before the attack on Pearl Harbor, and so every diplomatic cable from Japanese diplomats in Germany urging the government to end the war on whatever terms they could get before Japan suffered Germany's devastation was being intercepted and read (along with the rebukes the government was sending them, making it clear that this was not considered an option by those in actual power). And, anybody who knew about these plans on the Allied side was also aware that it would set up the Japanese version of the "stabbed in the back" theory that had given rise to the German side of the war, and if they did allow this to succeed, it would be guaranteeing another war against Japan within 20 years.
What we see in the endgame to the war in Tanya's world is a wish fulfillment of the attempted Imperial Japanese endgame, a world in which that strategy worked for somebody, even if it didn't work for Japan in 1945.
So, what do we make of this as far as enjoying the series goes? These two aspects of the series are very much reflections of a wish for WW2 Imperial Japan to have been something other than what it was - instead of an aggressive malevolent power that had to be stopped at all costs, an innocent rising power that came into conflict because the other nations were unjustly afraid of it, and one that was able to end the war with its empire intact through hard work and steadfast resolve ("Doing our best!" as the phrase so often appears in anime dialogue). And, I don't think one can blame the author for wanting that - in my country, our treatment (both past and ongoing) of First Nations peoples is a national shame, and I know I'd love it if the reality was something different. I can't imagine what it must be like to be from a country on the fascist side of WW2, inflicting tens of millions of deaths on innocent people. And, it IS fiction - the attributes of WW2 Imperial Japan are imposed onto WW1 Germany, not some alternate Japan. So, while there is definitely an uncomfortable side to this (especially if you're from a nation that suffered under Japanese occupation), I don't think it should stand as a barrier to enjoying the show. That said, I think we should recognize that these implications exist, as if you know your military history of the Japanese side of WW2, they're pretty impossible to ignore once you spot them.
(For a very good book on this subject, I would recommend Richard B. Frank's Downfall: The End of the Imperial Japanese Empire.)
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