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Weapons Inspection

“Ambassador? Ambassador…”
“Yes! Yes! I am awake. I was just thinking of his majesty, the King’s greatness!”
“Of course you were.” said the aide.
“So what were you saying? Better be something noteworthy to disturb my relentless thoughts towards the King.” Said the old Brion strut and proud.
“We are approaching Mars. The Terrans are waiting for our confirmation. Are we ready to disembark?”
“Yes! Yes! With haste, of course. Now go. Go! Tell the captain to dock the ship, By the King!”
“By the King.”
Left alone in his chamber the grumpy old Brion looks out of the viewing port and sees the planet so called Mars, apparently it was named after an ancient God of War of the terrans. How impudent of them. To think a forsaken deity could rival the might and graciousness of the King. He recalls how the planet was initially uninhabitable even for the deathworlders called Humans as it was barren, without a suitable atmosphere and without proper magnetic field. Very different from what he sees beneath him. Large oceans now rule the surface and green lush forests swarm the lands. Here and there you could still see the red dust and red rocks that inspired humans to name it "Red Planet" back in time.
As he waits for his ship to dock in the orbital ring that adorns the celestial body he wonders if this species is as primitive and as barbaric as many at the royal court make them out to be.
“Ambassador, this is John Nebulous, the Governor of Mars and the Ambassador appointed by the Terran Government.” The aide makes way as an old but robust looking humanoid steps forward. The fur in his head grey and white, his facial features withered by the unrelenting march of time, his stature diminished compared to the youth of his species, his gaze just as sharp as in his prime. Behind him follows the dignified light grey coat woven in golden details, so majestic that it almost seems waving in the non existent air currents of the station. The numerous military decorations show that he has countless battles behind his back.
“Greetings, I'm the Humble being that speaks for the Great King of the Brions, my name is not relevant compared to his majesty’s greatness. Refer to me just as Ambassador.” Proudly said, while puffing out his chest and straightening his back to seem taller. Reaching an impressive metre and 15 centimetres by Human standards.
“Greetings to you Ambassador. As stated by your adjutant I have been chosen by the Terran Senate to lead the negotiations regarding our provisional acceptance in the Coalition of the 1st Arm. Your arrival has come earlier than we expected and I fear that without the diplomats from Keltes and Ryuji we cannot begin our talks.”
A bit annoyed, the Brion thinks of what to do. After all, they arrived two days earlier thanks to his insistence of leaving with great haste in order to deal with the unexpected events that are bound to happen in an uncivilised and wild sector, such as the one controlled by the Humans. He expected pirate attacks or lawless bands of mercenaries to hinder his glorious arrival but surprisingly everything went smoothly.
“Well. Since we are to gather here to talk about war affairs, how about we show you some of our military assets, just to put your mind and heart at ease.” said the old human, smiling.
A bit shaken by the sheer size, the predatory gaze and show of teeth from his human counterpart he takes a moment to reply.
“Sure, why not. I hope you will give us a decent sighting to report to his Majesty.”
The small group heads for a shuttle that will lead them to the surface, during the brief ride the Brion tries to extract a bit of information from their soon to be allies. Also looking for something to make fun of or potential weaknesses.
“So tell me, Governor, what can you human add by joining our formidable alliance?”
“Well, you will see shortly. As of now we are heading to base “Martia Victrix”, where the 12th Warnauts Division is currently preparing for deployment, look outside the window, you will see it from here.”
Confused, the Ambassador looks outside, how could one see a planetary structure from up here? They just entered the atmosphere! All he could see was just a big city.
“I find it difficult to see your so-called base. Maybe I'll see it once we get closer.”
The old human chuckled “Well you see my friend, that is the base.”, pointing at what was mistaken as a large city.
By the King’s might. Yes he could see now. The city was actually a base! He spotted airfields here and there and depots the size of towns! Barracks, shooting ranges and even a vehicle training ground. The base itself was actually of a geometrical shape, encased by a sturdy and tall wall overlooked by countless defensive towers and few imposing gates. In the middle of all of this a large and blocky structure resembling what a modern castle would look like stood mighty, and proud, the Command Centre.
“Martia Victrix, in honour of ancient times, it means something like: martial and victorious, very appropriate to have such name on the planet our ancestors named after the God of War. As you can see the base is all encompassed by a wall the shape of a 8 point star, 20 metres high, 10 deep and wide, with compartmentalised and separated sections; Its surface area is around 1500km². Well defended by 9 independent and overlapping shield generators each able to cover the entirety of the base; of course there are fixed weapons emplacements on the bastions and towers but we also have numerous hidden retractable weapon platforms supplemented by 10 mobile Air Defence missile Brigades sparse around. The 4 airfields are capable of hosting up to 1000 Air and Space crafts, of different sizes, each and the system of underground depots and bunkers assures us we have enough ammunitions and consumables to conduct high intensity operations for 2 years without resupply. The base has a permanent garrison of 8 mechanised regiments and 4 attached armoured battalions, if needed additional units will be stationed.”
The Ambassador had the face expression equivalent to his species of a jaw drop. Nebulous continued.
“Sadly i must say that during our wargames we found out that this base cannot hold out for too long without external assistance, especially allied warships. If the case arose, where the Martia Victrix was isolated and under assault, we estimated that with rationing and scavenging it could only hold for a period of 10 years, if hastily prepared, up to 25 years with due preparations and facing the average opponent in the galaxy. We based our estimates on the Xarlark.”
“Average opponent my ass.” thought the Ambassador “Those wild beasts are known for stopping at nothing short of a black hole. And They estimated 10 years? No matter their apparent bravado these Humans must have exaggerated their claims. I refuse to believe this.”
“V-very amusing, maybe you are indeed worthy of being at his Majesty’s side, just for the brief period. I shall judge once I see your units up and close.”
The shuttle softly touched steel on a landing pad protruding from what seemed from the sky as a modern take on a castle. And that was the intention when it was built.
Every surface that was not dedicated to sensors or weapons was covered by thick steel and composite plating of unknown materials. Walking through the corridors the alien ambassador could notice two things. Firstly, the absurd amount of security ranging from the point defence turrets at every blast door to the weapons lockers on every single floor. Secondly the discipline these seemingly barbarous people seemed to have; for every human they went by everyone stopped and saluted, not him. "NOT ME! They are saluting the old man that is accompanying the great myself!" despite his indignation at such a thing he realised his guide must have served a remarkable military career before becoming Governor of Mars, finding some courage he asked.
“Well, despite the sorry appearance you show right now, your subordinates seem to have respect for your presence. Tell me, now; what have you done to gain such fame?”
He smiled and took off his hat. Beneath the white fur of his head stayed right in place, ordered and shiny, as if coated by a mysterious wax.
“You see this?” said pointing to a little sphere lodged on the front of his hat: light blue, so light it seemed white, so light it was actually fluorescent? Yes, the little sphere was actually emanating a faint light.
“That’s a Neutron Star Medal. It’s considered one of the highest Honors in our society. I got it back in the days when I was only 142 years old, ahh, I was still young and strong!”
More perplexed than anything the small group continued, eventually they reached an open area where Sol's radiation heated the cold skin of the Brions, happily they took a minute to breathe in the fresh air.
“Here we are. This is the designated area for the 12th Warnaut Division.”
“What’s with the name?”
“Oh you see… Back when we were just exploring the stars the ones who had the task to explore the unknown were called Astronauts and Cosmonauts. We wanted to maintain a sort of tradition, for the bravest and most daring men. Of course this is just one of the formations we employ, see them as a sort of Elite Units. We also have the Marines, the Army, the Space Force, the Landers, the Imperial Guards and so on, each with their own different units for different tasks and purposes…”
The Human war hero stopped as he noticed the Ambassador was shocked and in awe of what was in front of him.
Rows and rows of armoured vehicles, artillery, tanks, trucks, atmospheric support aircrafts (helicopters/hovercrafts), armoured scout cars, war bicycles and so on.
“By the king! This must be your whole armada! This is outstanding!”
“Whole? No, you misunderstood... this is just the equipment of the 12th Division, we are currently reviewing it”
“Can you tell me what those are? They must be the bane of the battlefield!” said pointing at some vehicles in the distance, towering and menacing.
“Ah yes. The Self Propelled Extreme Terrain Artillery, and Howitzers. See those right there, they are 10 inches variable lenght barrel. the barrel lenght can be manually adjusted directly in the field with integrated and complex mechanisms from the calibre lenght of L60 to L15. Depending on the operational needs they can operate either as long range artillery or as howitzers, as the name implies. They have four mechanical legs with variable foot area and have a maximum ground clearance of 5.5m, enabeling them to move even in the harshest of terrains. If magnetised and with adequate preparation they can scale vertical walls. They are not meant for frontline combat but are very impressive at first sight.”
“How many are assigned per unit?”
“Each Warnaut Division has 72, in addition to 2 Self propelled artillery Battalions and 1 self propelled rocket artillery Battalion. Sometimes additional units are assigned as extra support companies.”
“A-And what are those!”
“Those are the Drone Carriers, Land vehicles that can launch and control remotely up to 10 drones each, for reconnaissance or suicide drones swarm attack. Each Division has 124 of them.”
“What about that?”
“That’s an Adaptable Battle Tank, we can change configuration with a couple of mechanics in few hours depending on the needs.”
“And that?”

Hours went by as the Ambassador inquired about everything regarding those wonders of technology, the likes of which the Royal Army would not even dream of. Initially he was just sceptical but in the end he was just craving knowledge and wanted to know more, not for his King or for the intelligence bureau, but for himself, for his curiosity.
“This armament was nothing short of amazing, tell me, how many such divisions can you field? Surely they cannot be that much!”
“Well yes, we only have 53 Warnauts Division... and the Marine Division are just slightly less combat capable as they are around 25 thousands strong; while Warnauts are usually 30 thousands strong at full strength. If memory does not betray me we should have around 250 Marine Divisions; ah, also around 500 Army Divisions which are a bit inferior in terms of numbers and equipment to the first two… about the others… I don’t really remember, sorry. We should have around 2000 Divisions made out of volunteers and are able to, with the current equipment stockpiles, field up to 25000 divisions with standard equipment. If we really need to, we can resort to somewhat outdated stuff we have in warehouses…”
Nebulous paused as he noticed the Ambassador had stopped listening, still trying to make sense of what he heard.

“I will ask our King if we can become your vassals.”

An ominous shadow looming over them.
“Ah! Wait until you see the Navy!
submitted by Going_over_that_clif to HFY [link] [comments]

[Flight Simulators] The Rise and Fall of Walker Air Transport: How a recruiting campaign for one of flight sim's most popular virtual airlines spiraled into its members coming forward with accusations of harassment, intimidation, and doxing by the group’s founder.

For my next installment in flight sim drama, I bring you the story of Walker Air Transport, one of the largest and most active virtual airlines in modern flight sim, and their CEO's apparent inability to take criticism... Just in case you were worried that flight sim drama was limited to developers distributing malware or threatening to sue their community.
But first, let’s start with the obvious question…  

What the Hell is A Virtual Airline?

From the early days of flight simming, there was a bit of a problem. By their nature, most flight sims really have no goal, and there’s only so many times you can fly over your own house, explore famous landscapes, or perform low level acrobatics through major metropolitan areas before the experience grows stale.
Flight sim developers have over the years added more features to provide a more goal oriented experience for players such as missions, flight training, or community challenges. The community has also stepped in to give flight simming a greater sense of purpose as well with utilities and sites such as NeoFly and FSEconomy adding a career mode aspect to flight sim by awarding players virtual currency in exchange for flying virtual cargo around the virtual world. Multiplayer services like VATSIM and IVAO simulate a real world air traffic control environment with pilots and controllers communicating and coordinating traffic around major airports. Finally, we have the subject of today's story, virtual airlines or VAs, which exist to simulate the experience of flying for and operating a major air carrier.
Virtual airlines have been around for almost as long as flight sims themselves, and are considered some of the earliest examples of online multiplayer gaming. Virtual airlines can model themselves after a real airline such as Delta Virtual Airlines using the real world airline's routes, aircraft, and schedules, or be built from the ground up with their own liveries, routes, and history such as FlyUK. Typically, virtual airlines use some piece of software which runs alongside a user's chosen flight sim, tracks their flight, and grades their performance.
Tl:Dr? Basically, to put it more mainstream gaming terms, think of a virtual airline as like a guild or clan for flight sim.  

Just Keep Walking

In the universe of Walker Air Transport, the airline started in 1998 in Jacksonville Florida with a single Cessna 172 and later a Beechcraft King Air 350 before finally expanding in 2019 to become a large carrier offering cargo, charter, and scheduled flights.
In the real world, Walker Air Transport was founded in 2019 by Storm Walker, a self proclaimed flight sim fan since Microsoft Flight Simulator 1998. Storm spent a considerable amount of time cultivating his brand, becoming a regular contributor at flightsim. By October 2020, the virtual airline claimed a membership of nearly 300 pilots. Pilots heaped near universal praise on the airline for it’s ease of integration with all major flight sims, extensive fleet of aircraft covering nearly everything available for the major flight sims, vibrant community, and freedom to fly basically any route. For many, the airline was a breath of fresh air in an imaginary industry filled with difficult personalities and outdated policies and software.
Visibility helped the airline grow, and it’s members weren’t shy about posting pictures of the virtual airline’s planes. Storm encouraged this, after all, more eyes mean more members.  

I Hate The Things You Like

By August of 2022, membership had ballooned to well over 2,000 pilots… and some backlash against the virtual airline was brewing.
Walker Air Transport posts became a meme in the flight sim community. Pilots, and Storm himself, had a good natured laugh about the cult like perception of the airline with some hilarious in hindsight joking about how the airline was clearly stalking people to boost membership numbers.
Joking aside, Storm was very protective of the Walker brand. When another VA ripped off their liveries for use on their own plane, Storm quickly had the livery taken down and then reached out to the user.
Some vocal critics weren’t very appreciative of the proliferation of Walker Air Transport. The most common complaints were around the airline’s trademark livery which people were growing tired of seeing plastered all over the subreddit, and the airlines presence in VATSIM, the online multiplayer network where players role play air traffic controllers and pilots. The screenshot issue had some users crying foul that Walker was shamelessly skirting the flightsim rules by engaging in self promotion. The VATSIM issue largely came down to Walker players messing up other users' model matching, or how other users' aircraft are represented in your sim. Walker liveries aren't commonly installed by users outside of the airline so the Walker planes are replaced with plain white models breaking immersion for some players.
On their own, these petty squabbles didn't amount to much drama at all. Walker Air Transport continued to grow, Reddit continued to complain, and the circle of life continued. Overall, it seemed that it would take something spectacularly stupid to ruin Walker's good fortunes.  

A Storm of Controversy

On August 15th of 2022, the low grumblings of dissent against Walker Air Transport exploded in a spectacularly stupid fashion. The spark? A lone comment from the day before by a new Walker Air Transport pilot…
Been flying with Walker the last week or so and love the added direction and purpose it gives my flights, and smartCARS is so easy to use. I do wish they had more attractive liveries, though.
Obviously there was no way Storm could take that insult(?) laying down. He reached out to the pilot via Reddit DM addressing him by his Walker Air Transport callsign WAT2600.
The pilot responded with shock and horror that Storm had linked his Reddit account to his Walker Air Transport information, information which included his real name and email address. Storm offered to remove the pilot from the airline, since he hated their liveries so much.
The pilot posted screenshots of their interactions with Storm to flightsim with a warning, Beware. The owner of Walker Air linked my username identity to my reddit account and tried to threaten me because I barely criticized their liveries. The post gained well over 3000 upvotes becoming the highest voted post of all time on the subreddit and even hitting all, a rarity for flight sim.
Storm defended himself calling the pilot some whiny kid who got called out, in a comment that was downvoted to oblivion and eventually deleted. The critics in the flight sim community had had enough of Walker Air Transport, and with an incident to rally behind were all too happy to dance on the airline’s grave.
Comments poured in from other Walker pilots, one of whom posted an image of their own incident of Storm messaging them on Reddit using their real name. Others reported that this was typical behavior of Storm who would put pilots on blast on the Walker Discord for any criticism, often using real names.
The Reddit lawyers and law enforcement experts said Storm should be reported to the FBI or was in violation of the GDPR. Pilots expressed fear that they would be the next victims of doxing if they spoke out against the airline. Other commenters debated whether or not what Storm did even constituted doxing.
Even the mods of flightsim, notorious for fanning the flames of controversy against shitty behavior in the flight sim community, jumped in posting screenshots of reports from pro-Walker accounts.
Still, Storm and Walker Air Transport had their defenders. On their Discord, admins defended Storm saying that he had simply overreacted a little bit and insisted that he didn’t use any private information to find the user on Reddit.
Some Walker pilots tried to carry on as if nothing had happened but were quickly dogpiled by comments accusing them of being alt accounts for Storm.
The whole controversy made it to flight sim news site FSElite… whose users responded with a resounding “How the hell is this news?”
And of course, someone took the opportunity to improve the Walker Air Transport livery that had sparked such drama, with the smiling approval of flightsim’s mods.  

A Break in The Storm

With his pilots turning against him, Storm had no choice but to back down. He posted a statement to the Walker Air Transport Discord which was in turn reposted to flightsim.  
Events on FlightSim I want to start this off by apologizing to my pilot base. Each and every one of you are the sole reason this airline has been successful. With great success comes a lot of pressure and stress—one of those is dealing with the negativity that seems to flourish on Reddit. Countless times I’ve been told of something, shown something, or seen it within the channels of Discord. To protect our brand and continue to be who we are, I find myself challenging it and, in some cases, reacting in ways that are not in our best interest. I was told of a pilot who was clearly “unhappy” and although to many the comment was “meh”, to me it was just another attack. The pilot made a comment that he had been flying with us for only a week, so it wasn’t difficult to figure out which of the 3 most active “new” pilots he was. I took a stab at a random number, and I messaged him. The person immediately responded, “That’s weird how did you know that?” and then proceeded to assume that I used personal information to connect him to his Reddit account. I want to be clear about personal information – personal information stored in our database consists of the following: First and Last Name (it can be real or fake, we don’t verify this.) Email Address Geographic Location (this is the country you chose when registering, we don’t verify this.) Discord Tag, and any Online ATC network, Twitch, or YouTube ID’s you provide IP Address used for session tracking (this is automatic when you log into CrewOps.) The pilot claims that I used his personal information to identify him on Reddit. That is not true. None of the information above connects his Reddit account to our database. As previously stated, I simply looked at our most recent new pilots and took a literal “wild guess” at who he was. Unfortunately, me reaching out to the pilot resulted in him posting a portion of our conversation on Reddit. It has put us in the light of a Sub that already dislikes us because of our pilots posting every day. What am I going to do about this? 1. I’m going to formally apologize to the pilot. 2. I’ve deleted my Reddit account. 3. I am going to continue to focus on serving each of you as I always have. I built this community to give all of you a place, a home, that was free of drama. I apologize to all of you for my action. I have learned my lesson and will do better, be better. I am going to move forward and use this as a lesson to grow upon, to continue building on the positive things we already have. I hope that you continue to fly for the airline and enjoy all that it has to offer. However, I completely understand if you choose to depart. If you wish to be completely removed, including all personal information, send an email to [redacted] and the staff will delete your data. Again, I am sorry that this happened u/everyone. Storm | WAT100
Storm’s apology was almost as divisive as the incident which prompted it. Many saw Storm as violently overreacting to constructive criticism, and this non-apology basically amounted to “I didn’t do anything wrong but I’m sorry you were upset.”
Some were more understanding and willing to look past Storm’s actions and move on. After all, Walker Air Transport was a community over 2000 people strong, and the actions of one person shouldn’t mean everyone should abandon the community. …even if that one person is the guy in charge of the whole operation.  

Walk Away

True to his word, Storm deleted his Reddit account. The number of Walker posts on flightsim has definitely slowed down considerably, with the ones remaining gaining plenty of comments remarking on the attractiveness of the liveries or calling the airline Stalker Airlines.
It’s hard to say exactly how many pilots actually left the airline as a result of the doxing controversy. Walker’s website still boasts well over 2000 pilots and perhaps the notoriety has even helped them out a bit in their expansion.
In the end, despite the controversy, and because basically nobody in the flight sim community ever suffers permanent consequences, Walker Air Transport still pops up as a suggestion for people looking for a fun and casual virtual airline to fly for. You just need to look past the history… and please don’t comment on the livery.
submitted by LinkDude80 to HobbyDrama [link] [comments]

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submitted by PDBGiveaway to FashionReps [link] [comments]

Ukraine Recap: September 19th

📰 [Daily War Summary] Summary of the events which transpired on Monday, September 19th
💬 “40cm of snow in the mountains of Ukraine. Winter is coming.” — Andrew Perpetua
🪖 🔗 ISW, DefMon, 🔗 MilitaryLand, and 📺 Reporting from Ukraine have the daily border reports. Here is Tim White’s daily thread. Here are the 🔗 daily attrition statistics. And SaberFlux has the daily personal observations from the city of Kharkiv. Guest assessment by Oleg Zhdanov and an overview of the Kherson offensive by russian military analyst “Atomic Cherry”.
🪖 Lyman, which has been under siege by Ukraine for about two weeks is being hit heavily on Monday evening by Ukraine, from two directions. If this report holds up, it means Ukraine is conducting a night-time raid and exploiting the russians lack of night-vision equipment. The russian forces are saying “they have losses”. Lyman is a key city that is important for russia to hold to rebuild its defensive lines in the Donbas, and it’s important that Ukraine take it to make it easier to unravel russia’s defenses.
🪖 russia appears to have constructed a new bridge over the Nova Kakhovka dam that may present problems for Ukraine trying to destroy it. However Ukraine appears to have no trouble 💭 sinking russian barges
☢️🍿 russia launched a missile aimed at the Pivdennoukrainsk Nuclear Powerplant in the Mykolaiv region. Unlike the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, this plant is under Ukrainian control. The attack landed within 300 meters of the reactors and forced some systems 💭 to shutdown.
🛩 On Monday, Ukraine shot down 💭 one SU-25, 1 cruise missile and 5 drones. russia’s uptick in airplane losses is partially a result of the russian air force attempting to provide close air support to russian ground forces. Since the war began, 🔗 russia has lost 55 combat aircraft.
🛩 Meanwhile, thanks to HARM missiles taking out russia’s air defense network, Ukraine is successfully flying sorties; 🔗 21 air strikes on Monday against 16 russian bases and 5 air defense units.
🥷 Ukrainian hackers broke into the website of the russian mercenary group Wagner plundering data on the mercenaries and altering the group's website to display graphic pictures of dead russian and Wagner fighters. Links in this section deliberately omitted.
🥷 In a further hack, Wagner’s Telegram channel had to disable user comments because somehow Ukraine replaced Telegram’s react icon to be the Ukrainian Azov Logo.
🥷 In France, russia sent an assassin to kill a russian dissident, Vladimir Osechkin. The attempt failed because Mr. Osechkin saw a red dot on the wall. russia has a long history of assassinating dissidents on foreign soil with minimal to no repercussions.
👉 On Friday, 2 armed russian formations fired at each other in the Luhansk region. 21 militants were killed, 63 wounded, 5 armored vehicles destroyed. The event, reportedly, included russia’s most vaunted prison militias. Dmitri posted an interesting interview of a russian convict soldier who was captured in Ukraine.
👉 Sensing the collapse of their lines in the Donbas, the so called “LPR” and “DPR” 💭 puppet governments put out an urgent appeal for russia to annex the territories under the theory that it could allow a declaration of war and 💭 enable general mobilization in russia. russia’s military organization, the Wagner Group, was not impressed. The so-called referendums were put on hold after Ukraine’s success in Kharkiv and Kherson.
👉 russian state TV is now being forced to start telling some truths about the war.
👉 In an unexpected revelation, Oleg Zandov, a Ukraine military expert, stated that in Istambul, Turkey a Ukrainian corvette (naval ship) is approaching the end of construction.
👉 russia’s vaunted 3rd Army Corps, a group of volunteers, fairly decently outfitted lasted only a few days in Ukraine. So naturally russia is discussing forming the 4th Army Corps.
🍟 McDonalds is opening up again in Kyiv in three locations, first for delivery only but the express windows and restaurant dining will open up in October.
🇺🇸 The US in its daily briefing said that “💭 tanks are on the table” for Ukraine provided they show the ability to maintain more modern variants. The US believes the Wagner group is trying to recruit 1,500 convicted felons to fight in Ukraine but that many are resisting. The US 💭 also believes that since the successful Kharkiv operation even more russian volunteers are refusing combat.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian First Lady Olena Zelenska and Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal met with King Charles III and offered their condolences on the death of Queen Elizabeth II.
🇭🇺 Hungary believes its negotiations with the EU has been successful and it will still receive funds from the EU. Previously the EU ruled Hungary was not a democracy and held funding back as punishment. Poland, however, plans to oppose the EU’s decision on withdrawing funds from Hungary.
🇭🇺 Last week Hungary opposed an EU proposal to ask the UN Human Rights Council for a special investigator on russian human rights violations.
💰🇹🇷 Thanks to US pressure, Turkish banks have 🔗 stopped accepting russian “mir cards”. russia is telling its tourists heading to Turkey to bring cash.
💰🇷🇺 russia’s energy company Gazprom is forcing employees to donate 1,000 rubles to a fund to buy medicine for russian soldiers. It was reported earlier that teachers are forced to donate 3,000 rubles to buy underwear for the soldiers.
💰🇮🇷 The US Department of Commerce has added cargo planes operated by Iranian airlines flying to russia to the export violation list.
💰💵 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with the head of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, to discuss setting up a reconstruction fund and how to attract investment to Ukraine’s war-ravaged economy.
🔥India is replacing russian gas even though it is costing them more.
🔥 Deutsche Bank sees little chance russia will cut off oil exports when the G7 implement their price cap on russian oil.
🎁🇸🇮🇩🇪 In a german “💭 ring exchange”, Slovenia will provide Ukraine with upgraded T-55S tanks and Germany will provide 40 modern armored vehicles for Slovenia.
🎁🇩🇪 In addition to the previously announced 2 MLRS Mars II, and 50 Dingo armored personnel carriers, Germany is now going to add 💭 4 new Panzerhaubitze 2000 self propelled howitzers to be delivered immediately. Germany and the Netherlands pledged 💭 further military support for Ukraine.
🎁🇷🇺 Ukraine captured, intact, a very rare and advanced russian 1V1003 command and observation vehicle which is probably even now heading to the West for dissection.
🌾 Over the weekend, a ship carrying Ukrainian grain headed to Ethiopia with 💭 50,000 metric tons of wheat. On Monday, Ukraine said that Ethiopia and Somalia will be reimbursed for that grain, a donation of $11.4 million dollars worth of wheat to the two starving countries.
🤔 Interesting Things
✊🌻 Ukraine is still favored to recover its pre-invasion 2022 borders by western government reports and trusted third party analysts. Ukraine has stated its goal is the full liberation of all occupied territory including the Donbas and Crimea regions back to the 2014 pre-invasion borders. Currently russia’s goal is to capture the Donetsk Oblast and retain control of the Luhansk Oblast, both tasks it is currently failing. russia has been downgrading its stated objectives since its retreat from Kyiv.
🇺🇦 Current state of the war: russia has ~25k troops trapped between Ukrainian forces and the Dnipro river in Kherson to the south. Ukraine has also mounted a successful counter-offensive in Kharkiv that has seen russian forces driven from the region and now threatens months of painful russian advances in the Donbas area. russia has been unable to mount any serious offensive operations since July. Currently the advantage rests decisively with Ukraine.
📰 An archive of these posts is available at /pcx99/
submitted by pcx99 to pcx99 [link] [comments]


First / Previous / Next
In the woods
Rex felt the long-forgotten feeling of organic ground, enjoying the softness and wetness that it brought to his Paws.
Owner Sam hat notified him that he could sadly not play ball with the new people but should instead stalk and watch them for further actions and then report back to Sam after.
He was also told to keep his ears open incase he heard something of interest.
And to defend himself if necessary.
Following the blue people was child’s play. They couldn’t hear him because of his stealthy nature and couldn’t see him either because of the cool feature his Owner build into his suit.
Rex grinned as a memory came to mind.
He could remember the fun he had with his owner the first time his comfy suit got that upgrade. Practically walking next to the human without being seen, making his enormous size not a matter of stealth anymore.
Scaring his Human was the funniest part.
A giant, genetically modified, snow white Canadian timber wolf just popping into existence in front of you while drinking coffee?
Rex could most certainly understand why his owner jumped the way he did.
“Fun times!” Rex thought.
The wolf got ripped out of his thoughts as one of the blue people nearly stepped on his hidden fur.

“So, what do ya think the alien is gonna look like?” Farbella said enthusiastically, “maybe it’s a giant tentacle monster with razor sharp teeth!”
The captain thought about shutting her up, but decided against it as the conversation would probably improve the squads morale.
“Hm” she answered, “I think it could be something similar to our looks, since it’s staying on land, and hasn’t hidden itself in the deep seas. So, not aquatic, I guess. Professor, that’s your topic, isn’t it? What do you think it’ll look like?”
The shy Biologist thought for a moment before answering.
“I think you might actually be right Captain” the academically inclined Shrill answered, “Like you said, it’s probably not aquatic in nature as it has resided on the island and not in the ocean. It could most definitely look like us, can’t really grab and construct tools with slimy tentacles now can it?”
The Private looked away with a sad face.
“If my research into biology and xeno-lifeforms has taught me anything in the past years, then that life always seems to have some strong similarities in many aspects. Take legs, organs, arms and eyes for example. It’s almost always the same here and rarely looks THAT different. Can’t really imagine it being any other way out there in the stars.”
The squad pondered the theory for a few minutes, until something in the woods snapped loudly.
“What was that?” one of the Marines asked.
“I don’t know but that most certainly didn’t sound like it was small! Get ready!” Denishka answered, almost letting the panic into her voice.
The Shrill stood in a circle, covering the engineers and the biologist defensively, until one of the soldiers shrieked.
Everyone spun around to see an at least 2,5m long, albino white, furry being with piercing yellow eyes staring at them with a concentrated expression.
“Kill that thing!” one of the Marines, Charlotte, screamed.
“No wai-”
The captain couldn’t get her order out in time, only being able to watch hopelessly as the 30-year-old experienced soldier lifted her weapon and started rapid firing lead down-range towards the majestic looking creature.
Denishka watched in amazement as the animals spine started glowing green. She thought she would have to see the animal get shredded but got shocked by what happened next.
The creature dodged and moved around every bullet that was fired from her subordinate’s firearm, dragging a green glow behind it while doing so.
When the soldiers weapon clicked repeatedly, signaling that it had no more shots to shoot, the white, now preferably called THING. Stopped for a moment, its spine venting some unknown gasses as it stayed still, staring them down.
The venting stopped and its spine started glowing again.
The Squad now all lifted their weapons, ready to engage.
But it was to late.
The creature dashed forward at impossible speeds, ramming against the first attacker, making her smash into a tree. It then penetrated the open hole in the defensive circle, dashing towards a new target.
It was so fast, one might think it actually teleported. But it didn’t.
It used the squads shock and confusion to grab the professor, leaping out of the circle not a moment later, vanishing into the shrubs almost instantly.
“HELLPPPPPPPPPPPPP” the biologist screeched, her screams slowly fading into the woods.
“CHECK CHARLOTTE FOR ANY INJURIES, THEN FOLLOW THE DAM THING!!!” the captain ordered, wasting no time getting the squad organized again.

Onboard a Shrell aircraft carrier
“We should initiate a new first strike on that THING!” one of the Shrell higherups demanded angrily.
The HQ of the Shrell Maritime Forces was eerily quiet as a video played on the screen in front of them again and again.
On the TV was the alien invader, shrugging off bullets, deflecting an AT round like it was nothing and ripping apart the entire forest with presumed anti-gravity technology.
High Command was breaking their heads trying to think about how they could get their hands on the technology.
“Maybe just overwhelm it with numbers? It can’t possibly kill 2000 of our best?” one of the overseers proposed.
“No, that would get to much attention from the Blue Enemy” another interjected.
“Are we even sure it’s hostile? We attacked it first. It was just watching us after all.”
“What do you mean by is it hostile? IT RIPPED A MARINES ARM OFF GODDES DAMMIT!!!”
“yeah but-”
“NO BUTS! This thing’s an enemy of all Shrell kind! Get that into your thick pacifist skull!”
The Discussion was interrupted by a radar operator barging onto the bridge.
“We got an UFO on radar!” the radar specialist announced loudly, “it has the radar cross signature of a small bird, but we can most definitely see it! We could theoretically shoot it down if we fired enough missiles at it too.”
“Then do exactly that!” the first overseer answered, “if we were to manage to grab the wreckage from the seafloor, then we’d have all the technology we could dream of!”
A round of strong agreement filled the room, making the hasty decision final.
A few minutes later, multiple missile volleys launched from Destroyers, Cruisers and the Carrier towards the UFO.
“Let’s just hope we won’t regret this…” the only disagreeing overseer muttered under his breath.
submitted by DerStegosaurus to HFY [link] [comments]

MEGA Post- I use Minox, Dermaroll, Low-Level Laser Therapy (LLLT), Tretinoin [Vitamin A], Vitamin C, Hyaluronic Acid, Peppermint, L-carnitine L-tartrate (LCLT), and Creatine ------ Also Discuss Keratin, Collagen, DHT Blockers [Rosemary, Tea Tree, Lavender], Vitamins (Biotin), Dermis/Epidermis Depth

I have tried to do everything to increase beard growth. I am open to do more, just please provide the link to any research. Thanks!

The below is what I am currently doing. Following which, is all the research that backs up what I do.

Below is the Table of Contents for this post to assist in navigating. Post is a tad long, but everything is fleshed-out, and cited to research or (hopefully a reputable) site.

Things I Currently Use
Additives to Things I Currently Use

Additional Information

Things I Currently Use


Notes: Minoxidil will dry skin out as it is alcohol based. Moisturizer is needed, see: Hyaluronic Acid [HA]

2016: Minoxidil 3% lotion is effective and safe for beard enhancement.
Source: https://limmerhtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/jde13312.pdf

Minoxidil stimulates hair growth by increasing the growth phase cycle [anagen], shortening the resting phase [telogen], and increasing the blood flow to the hair follicle.
Source: https://www.webmd.com/connect-to-care/hair-loss/dht-blocking-treatments-to-know-about

Minoxidil promotes growth by causing hair in the telogen phase to enter anagen, these being part of the hair cycle. As well, minoxidil opens potassium channels, which allows additional nutrients to reach the follicle.
Source: https://www.beardwiki.com/minoxidil



2013: Dermaroller along with minoxidil treated group was statistically superior to minoxidil treated group in promoting hair growth in men with AGA [Androgenetic Alopecia] for all 3 primary efficacy measures of hair growth. Microneedling is a safe and a promising tool in hair stimulation and also is useful to treat hair loss refractory to minoxidil therapy.
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3746236/

Dermaroller Length
2011: Most newly built elastin fibers could be noted just subepidermally at a depth of 0.6 mm. There were no changes to be seen deeper than 0.6 mm or in the epidermis itself. The [dermaroller] would be penetrating approximately 1 mm in depth, so its effect is well correlated to that.
Source: https://journals.lww.com/plasreconsurg/Fulltext/2011/06000/A_Prospective_Controlled_Assessment_of.72.aspx

2012: An interesting fact is that the new collagen formation is deposited from a depth of 0.6 mm upwards and towards the basal membrane, in most cases when [dermaroller] with a length of 1.5 mm are used.
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3921236/

2008: Biopsies revealed new collagen to a depth of 0.6 mm. Even though 2.0 mm [dermarollers] were used, no new collagen fibers could be found in the sub dermal layer illustrating no benefit to using longer, more invasive [dermarollers].
Source: https://irp.cdn-website.com/315280e8/files/uploaded/setterfield-_needle-depth.pdf

Prominent South African surgeon Dr Des Fernandes pioneered much of the work on [dermarollers] and in 1996 he used a 3 mm [dermaroller]. Treatments were painful and required IV sedation and analgesia. Further studies [in 2008] by Dr Fernandes and Dr Aust in Germany concluded that similar results could be obtained using a 1 mm [dermaroller].
Source: https://irp.cdn-website.com/315280e8/files/uploaded/setterfield-_needle-depth.pdf

2013: Lademann’s group explored the potential to deliver vaccines by topical application of microparticles that penetrate into the hair follicles. The infundibulum within the hair follicle (400-600 μm deep [.4 mm to .6 mm]) is lined with a particularly dense network of dendridic cells making it the most immunologically active region, therefore this was specifically targeted for delivery. As they had previously demonstrated that particles of different sizes penetrate follicles to different depths, the vaccine carriers were of 1 mm diameter to target the infundibulum. They showed that their 1 mm silicon dioxide microparticles efficiently penetrated the hair follicles to deliver vaccine constituents to dendridic cells in the infundibulum within 1 hour of topical application. They also showed that particles remained as a depot within the follicle for up to 10 days contrasting with particles on the stratum corneum [most outward layer of skin] that were rapidly removed after about 1 day. Follicular delivery of vaccine carried on microparticles provides another potential approach to target the body’s largest immune organ.
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6637104/

I used a .5 mm dermaroller for over a year. After using .75 for a few months I saw an uptick in new vellus hairs. Will now start using 1 mm based on the above and my own experience.

Dermaroller Frequency
Understanding the predictable phases of wound healing dictates optimum timing for [Dermarolling] to obtain greatest success. Prolonging the inflammatory phase (day 1-5) will result in more growth factors. Photomodulation and lymph drainage are valuable from day 2-14 and then cosmetic rolling combined with Sonophoresis and micro-current are beneficial to assist maximum delivery of nutrients to cells. Collagenase peaks at around day 14 to reorganize collagen fibrils, converting collagen III to collagen I and it therefore makes no sense to reinjure the skin more frequently than every 30 days.
Source: https://irp.cdn-website.com/315280e8/files/uploaded/setterfield-_needle-depth.pdf

Source: https://dermarolleronlinestore.co.za/size-benefits-info/?v=e4dd286dc7d7
The above frequencies are similar to those by Koi-Beauty where I buy my dermarollers. Though I dermaroll twice as frequently than the above recommended.

Dermaroller Maximizers
Collagen synthesis requires:
Source: https://irp.cdn-website.com/315280e8/files/uploaded/setterfield-_needle-depth.pdf

Dermaroller Science
2016: Microneedling leads to reorganization of old collagen fibres and laying down of new collagen, elastin, and capillaries leading to the effect of skin tightening. A significant increase in level of collagen type I, III, and VII, newly synthesized collagen and tropoelastin from baseline was observed after 6 microneedling sessions at 2-week intervals. This percutaneous collagen induction leads to an overall youthful appearance of the skin by reducing fine lines and wrinkles, reducing pore size, more suppleness, and elasticity.
The needles also breakdown the old hardened scar strands and allow it to revascularize. Neovascularization and neocollagenesis is initiated by migration and proliferation of fibroblasts and laying down of intercellular matrix. A fibronectin matrix forms after 5 days of injury that determines the deposition of collagen resulting in skin tightening persisting for 5–7 years in the form of collagen III. The depth of neocollagenesis has been found to be 5–600 µm [.5–.6 mm] with a 1.5 mm length needle. Histological examination of the skin treated with 4 microneedling sessions 1 month apart shows upto 400% increase in collagen and elastin deposition at 6 months postoperatively, with a thickened stratum spinosum and normal rete ridges at 1 year postoperatively. Collagen fibre bundles appear to have a normal lattice pattern rather than parallel bundles as in scar tissue.
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4976400/

Low-Level Laser Therapy [LLLT]

2013: LLLT was discovered serendipitously in the 1960s when mice irradiated with a low fluence red laser grew hair. Animal and human data have slowly accumulated supporting LLLT for hair growth. LLLT appears to improve a variety of non-scarring alopecias—AGA [Androgenetic Alopecia], AA [Alopecia Areata], and chemotherapy-induced alopecia. Based on the studies demonstrating LLLT's effects on promoting graft survival, it may be further suggested to have a potential to be used during the immediate period of post-hair transplant surgery to facilitate the healing process and enhance viability and earlier growth of the grafts. While mechanisms are still emerging, LLLT may increase anagen hairs through release of NO [Nitric Oxide] from CCO [cytochrome c oxidase] by photodissociation and LLLT may reduce inflammation in AA. Most studies investigating effects of LLLT on hair growth have used wavelengths that range from 635 nm to 650 nm, but as of today no study has compared the effect of near-infrared wavelengths such as 810 nm, which have deeper penetrating capacities, to red light.
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3944668/

2013: LLLT aids skin rejuvenation through increasing collagen production and decreasing collagen degradation. LED which is a novel light source for non-thermal, non-ablative skin rejuvenation has been shown to be effective for improving wrinkles and skin laxity. It is not a new phenomenon since the first reports of LLLT effects on increased collagen go back to 1987. Studies by Abergel et al. and Yu et al. reported an increase in production of pro-collagen, collagen, basic fibroblast growth factors (bFGF) and proliferation of fibroblasts after exposure to low-energy laser irradiation in vitro and in vivo animal models. Furthermore, LLLT was already known to increase microcirculation, vascular perfusion in the skin, alter platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF), transforming growth factor (TGF-β1) and inhibit apoptosis.
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4126803/

My LLLT wand/stick is to be used once every two days. Session lasts about 10 minutes.

Tretinoin [Vitamin A]


2007: The efficacy and safety of combined 5% minoxidil and .01% tretinoin once-daily therapy appear to be equivalent to those of conventional 5% minoxidil twice-daily therapy for the treatment of AGA [Androgenetic Alopecia].
Source: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17902730/

1986: Tretinoin was shown to stimulate some hair regrowth in approximately 58% of the subjects studied.
Source: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/3771854/

2000: Type I procollagen and type III procollagen are reduced in chronically photodamaged human skin, not recently exposed to UV. Treatment of such photodamaged skin with all-trans retinoic acid increases type I procollagen expression. The mechanism of this increase is not known, however, it may involve increased expression or activation of TGF-β. In addition, treatment of skin with all-trans retinoic acid before UV exposure inhibits collagen breakdown by matrix metalloproteinases and protects against UV-induced reduction of procollagen expression, as demonstrated in this study. Therefore, all-trans retinoic acid and its metabolic precursor all-trans retinol (vitamin A) should have the capacity to both repair existing photodamage and retard accumulation of new photodamage.
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC381286/

Tretinoin Prescription
To get tretinoin you need to have a doctor’s prescription–in USA. A way to do this is to say that it is for Actinic Keratosis.
2011: Actinic keratosis is the third most common skin complaint treated by dermatologists in the US and, according to the American Academy of Dermatology, 60% of predisposed individuals over the age of 40 years have at least one lesion. They occur most frequently on sun-exposed skin of the face, scalp, arms, and hands. Important risk factors include fair skin, cumulative sun exposure, and immunosuppression, including further ultraviolet light exposure. Actinic keratosis is now considered to be the beginning of a biologic continuum that leads to invasive squamous cell carcinoma, thus treatment is medically necessary.
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3132090/

Actinic keratoses describes lesions caused by too much exposure to the ultraviolet rays of sunlight. They are the beginnings of skin cancer, most often appearing after age 40. In some areas where climate is mild year-round, these lesions appear in much younger people. People with fair skin, blond or red hair, and blue or green eyes are most at risk of developing these rough, scaly patches, or keratoses.
Source: https://www.webmd.com/skin-problems-and-treatments/understanding-actinic-keratosis-basics

Tretinoin Use
I am supposed to use my tretinoin every evening–so I assume all are to be used daily–but the study used .01%, I was given .1%. The skin cell cycle is 28 days, if I don't use my tretinoin for even half that, 2 days after the first application I am peeling all over; it looks terrible.

Topical retinoids are still considered the gold standard for clinically effective topical antiaging products . Retinoids are a family of compounds composed of vitamin A, its derivatives, and synthetic molecules acting through the same pathway. Besides all-trans retinoic acid (RA), the major bioactive form, the term “retinoids” includes retinaldehyde, retinol, and various retinyl esters. They act through retinoic acid receptors (RARs) and retinoid X receptors (RXRs), increasing the amount of type I procollagens and decreasing the amount of MMPs. RA increases the amount of type I, III, and VII collagens in the dermis, and can reorganize the dermal collagen into new woven bundles. In addition, RA stimulates normalization of the elastic tissue organization and GAG deposition in the dermis. In clinical trials, topical retinoids are clinically effective for the treatment of dermal aging, including wrinkles, roughness, and laxity. However, they can be irritating to a significant percentage of the population, and further development of ways to reduce their irritation potential is needed. Retinol, which metabolizes to retinaldehyde and retinoic acid, has been found to be less irritating than retinoic acid and is widely used as an ingredient for antiaging cosmeceuticals.
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6540032/

Vitamin C

Note: Vitamin C’s purest form is L-ascorbic acid.

2017: The following information is available as a result of research into the role of vitamin C in skin health:
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5579659/

2012: L-ascorbic acid can be used orally and topically for skin benefits. Vitamin C is a cofactor for lysyl and prolyl hydroxylase, which stabilize the triple helical structure of collagen. It also plays a role in cholesterol synthesis, iron absorption and increases the bioavailability of selenium. The most commonly described cutaneous manifestations accompanying vitamin C deficiency are attributed to the impaired collagen synthesis.
Furthermore, oral administration of an antioxidant mixture containing vitamin C, vitamin E, pycnogenol and evening primrose oil significantly inhibited wrinkle formation caused by chronic UVB irradiation through significant inhibition of UVB-induced matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) activity accompanied by enhancement of collagen synthesis on hairless mouse skin.
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3583891/

Vitamin C Use
2001: L-ascorbic acid must be formulated at pH levels less than 3.5 to enter the skin. Maximal concentration for optimal percutaneous absorption was 20%. Tissue levels were saturated after three daily applications; the half-life of tissue disappearance was about 4 days. Derivatives of ascorbic acid including magnesium ascorbyl phosphate, ascorbyl-6-palmitate, and dehydroascorbic acid did not increase skin levels of L-ascorbic acid.
Source: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11207686/
The above says that vitamin C’s low pH may irritate your skin. So only use it a few days before a dermarolling session, it only takes 3 daily applications of 20% vitamin C to saturate the skin.

Hyaluronic Acid [HA]

Notes: HA can be bought as a lotion.

Findings [from 1999] indicated that suppression of transcriptional activity of type VI collagen is associated with the reduction of cartilage matrix tissue, and that HA is associated with the suppression of the effect of IL-1β.
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6603175/

That sentence is hard to understand. It says that HA suppresses the effect of IL-1β, which is good because IL-1β suppresses transcriptional activity of type VI collagen, which in effect reduces the cartilage matrix tissue.
2011: A major component of the extracellular matrix is [HA] or hyaluronan. HA is a naturally occurring anionic polysaccharide most abundantly present in mammalian skin where it is localized not only in the dermis (≈0.5mg/g wet tissue), but also in the epidermis (≈0.1mg/g wet tissue). Due to its considerable capacity to bind water, HA has greater skin hydration properties than other polysaccharides. Topical application of HA increases hydration of the [stratum corneum⁠—most outward layer of skin] largely through a humectant effect.
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3050617/

2018: [HA] is a naturally occurring biopolymer in bacteria and vertebras. HA is a highly hydrophilic molecule with the ability to bind water up to a 1000 times its own weight.
The turnover rate of HA in vivo depends on where the HA is located. The half time of HA in the circulation system is approximaty 2-5 minutes while the half time in more rigid tissue, such as cartilage, is 1-3 weeks. Almost half of all HA is located in the skin, where the half time of HA in the epidermis layer is 1-2 days.
Source: https://liu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1303721/FULLTEXT01.pdf

2017: Several in vitro and in vivo studies have shown the beneficial actions of HA treatment, with anti-inflammatory, wound healing, chondroprotective, antiangiogenic, anti-ageing and immunosuppressive effects, among others.
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6403654/

2014: The wound healing process can be organized into three main events, and each event involves HA:
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6603175/

Aggrecan, biglycan, fibronectin, and HA significantly stimulated cell proliferation in DP [dermal papilla] cell monolayer culture without any effect on DP [dermal papilla] cell identity. Most of ECM [extracellular matrix] compounds prevented the formation of cell aggregates while HA promoted the formation of larger organoids.
Source: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29129979/

HA Use
I always use my HA after I dermaroll. Sometimes I use it to moisturize, other times I just use normal lotion.

Additives to Things I Currently Use

Peppermint Oil [PEO]

2014: PEO induced significantly high ALP [alkaline phosphatase] activity at week 2, even greater than MXD [Minoxidil]. This study demonstrates that PEO stimulates both dermal papilla and ALP activity, which promotes blood circulation by relaxing vascular smooth muscle.
PEO showed remarkably increased IGF-1 [insulin-like growth factor-1] mRNA expression at week 2, whereas MXD at week 4.
3% PEO facilitates hair growth by promoting the conservation of vascularization of hair dermal papilla, which may contribute to the induction of early anagen stage.
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4289931/

I personally dilute PEO to 5% as opposed to the 3% in the study. Be weary of putting in too much PEO, it can and will make you cry, and that's if it doesn't burn.

L-carnitine L-tartrate [LCLT]

2007 - Our findings suggest that l-carnitine stimulates human scalp hair growth by up regulation of proliferation and down regulation of apoptosis in follicular keratinocytes in vitro.
Source: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17927577/

1993: Carnitine also acts on the sensory organs … suggesting a direct effect of palmitoyl-DL-carnitine on cochlear hair cells.
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2266057/

You should use pure L-carnitine L-tartrate [LCLT] powder, never use Acetyl-L-Carnitine. Dilute to 2% of the carrier’s substance. I have no idea where this 2% comes from (it’s from reddit’s minoxbeards, but I mean science-wise), I have been unable to find any study behind it–Please share if you find a study about diluting LCLT to 2%!


2009: Creatine supplementation may, in part, act through an increased rate of conversion of T to DHT.
Source: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19741313/

As with LCLT, I dilute to 2% of the carrier’s substance. I have no idea what the best dilution would be. Please share if you find anything about creatine dilution!

Additional Information


Note: Keratin has a high sulfur content.

2017- Therefore, we demonstrate the potential hair growth promoting activity of keratin extract (KE) inC57BL/6 mice. Our data suggest that KE is a novel agent that enhances hair growth and that biomedical application of discarded human hair keratin could be used to promote hair follicle regeneration.
In conclusion, our study demonstrated that KE has potential for hair growth promotion by inducing the anagen phase in telogenic mice. [KE] demonstrated high bio-compatibility for promoting cellular regeneration. In KE treated mice, we observed an increase in the number, shaft of the follicle, and deep subcutis area,which served as evidence of induction of anagen phase. Taken together, our results suggest that KE promotes hair follicles growth by inducing anagen phase and might be a new and promising source of biomaterial for hair growth.
Source: https://www.academia.edu/38650883/Soft_Tissues_and_Materials_Hair_growth_promoting_activity_of_discarded_biocomposite_keratin_extract

So Keratin accomplishes the same thing as Minoxidil, it causes telogen to anagen. I will start using Keratin soon, open ideas for how to use!


2021: In the meta-analysis, a grouped analysis of studies showed favorable results of hydrolyzed collagen supplementation compared with placebo in terms of skin hydration, elasticity, and wrinkles. The findings of improved hydration and elasticity were also confirmed in the subgroup meta-analysis. Based on results, ingestion of hydrolyzed collagen for 90 days is effective in reducing skin aging, as it reduces wrinkles and improves skin elasticity and hydration.
Source: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33742704/

2020: In this systematic review, three different mechanisms of action were clarified for the intervention. Direct effects of collagen peptides on fibroblasts, M2-like macrophages, and oral tolerance-related mechanisms are the possible mechanisms for the beneficial effects of collagen supplementation.
Source: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32436266/

DHT [Dihydrotestosterone]

The hair on the head grows without the presence of DHT, but armpit hair, pubic hair, and beard hair cannot grow without androgens.
Source: https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/68082#effects
DHT is BAD for scalp hair. DHT is GOOD for beard hair.

DHT is an androgen hormone and can be directly associated with beard hair. Testosterone converts to DHT. A DHT blocker inhibits the conversion of testosterone to DHT. As such, DHT blockers are bad for beard hair. Topical DHT blockers are not nearly as potent as oral (prescription) blockers and pose less risk of some beard hair thinning. Because there is still risk, however, it is always advised to stay away from potential DHT blockers.

DHT Blockers
Fatty acids lauric, oleic and linoleic acid, have been proven through scientific studies to inhibit the production of DHT.
The following source contains a list of 45+ DHT inhibitors. Though the main ones are Lavender, Rosemary, and Tea Tree.
Source: https://beardology.org/dhtblockers/

2013: These results suggest that [Rosemary] inhibits the binding of dihydrotestosterone [DHT] to androgen receptors.
Source: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22517595/

2015: Both groups [Rosemary and Minoxidil] experienced a significant increase in hair count at the 6-month endpoint compared with the baseline and 3-month endpoint.
Source: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25842469/
So use Rosemary on the scalp, but not on the beard.

Tea Tree
2012: Group T received oil spray containing Lavender and Tea tree oils. A statistically significant decrease of hair diameter was found in group T; in group T percentual reduction of hair diameter was significantly greater.
Source: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23211454/

2013: [tea tree oil eliminates] bacterial and fungal organisms that could modify androgen metabolism and lead to hair fall.
[tea tree oil kills] any existing microbial or fungal colonization of the hair follicles.
tea tree oil was used on the basis that it is a highly effective natural anti-infective agent.
biotinSource: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3686323/

1998: This study was conducted to determine the activity of tea-tree oil against 58 clinical isolates. Tea-tree oil showed inhibitory activity against all isolates tested except one strain. These in vitro results suggest that tea-tree oil may be useful in the treatment of yeast and fungal mucosal and skin infections.
Source: https://japmaonline.org/view/journals/apms/88/10/87507315-88-10-489.xml
Essentially Tea Tree oil just kills everything, including hair.

Note: Lavender is an antibacterial and antifungal like Tea Tree.

2016: These results indicated that LO [Lavender Oil] has a marked hair growth-promoting effect, as observed morphologically and histologically.
LO maintains the anagen phase and delays the transition to the catagen phase.
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4843973/

The 2016 study and 2012 Tea Tree study make me think that Lavender’s effect on hair needs to be studied further, as currently there is contradictory information. Please share if you find any research about Lavender’s effects on hair!

Vitamin / Supplements

Biotin / Iron / Zinc / B12 / Amino Acids

2017: Despite its popularity in the media and amongst consumers, biotin has no proven efficacy in hair and nail growth of healthy individuals.
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5582478/

2018: Biotin deficiency causes hair loss, but there are no evidence-based data that supplementing biotin promotes hair growth.
Iron supplementation [...] reversed the iron deficiency and induced hair growth.
Alopecia is a well-known sign of established zinc deficiency with hair regrowth occurring with zinc supplementation.
The reduction in vitamin B12 levels had no adverse effects on hair shedding or hair growth.
The possible impact of amino acids on hair growth has yet to be elucidated.
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6380979/

2016: The fact is that unless hair loss is due to a specific nutritional deficiency, there is only so much that nutritional therapies can do to enhance hair growth and quality. In general, malnutrition is due to one or more of following factors: Inadequate food intake, illness that causes increased nutrient requirements, increased nutrient loss, poor nutrient absorption, or combination of these factors.
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4989391/

The above 3 studies say that unless someone is malnourished or deficient in nutrients, adding more vitamins(biotin)/minerals wouldn't have an effect. I have seen no evidence that extra vitamins(biotin)/minerals will do anything for hair growthPlease share if you find any research about extra nutrients causing hair growth!

Phases of Hair Growth

Anagen phase: Growth—2 to 6 years of growing, starts when a hair follicle forms a new hair shaft. Most (90%) of the hair on a scalp is in a growing phase
Catagen phase: Transition—1 to 2 week transition stage between anagen and telogen. Less than 1% of scalp hair is in this phase.
Telogen phase: Rest—3- to 4-month phase, some hair falls out. When a hair falls out, a new hair is grown in the same hair follicle, and the growing cycle begins again. Accounts for 6% to 8% of hair.
Source: https://www.uofmhealth.org/health-library/ug2799


Thanks for reading! I hope I was able to help in any way, whether by introducing new beard growth methods or citing studies behind the ingredients/methods.

I greatly appreciate the MinoxBeards subreddit. Thank you to this community for introducing all of this to me and providing education while I started my journey. The MinoxBeards FAQ is a great resource, but none of the following is in the FAQ–though they are in this post:

I humbly implore the mods to please input into the MinoxBeards FAQ:
I am willing to help integrate the above information with the FAQ, please just allow me.
submitted by VegetaIsSuperior to Minoxbeards [link] [comments]

The Fluidity of Google Adwords

The Fluidity of Google Adwords

The Fluidity of Google Adwords

Google Ads is a web marketing and marketing platform that evolved via way of means of Google.
In which advertisers bid to show short advertisements, carrier offerings, and product listings.
Or motion pictures to net users.
It can area advertisements withinside the outcomes of search engines like google and yahoo like Google Search and on non-seek websites, cellular apps, and motion pictures.
Services are supplied beneath neath a pay-per-click on the pricing model.
Google Ads is the principal supply of sales for Alphabet Inc, contributing US$168.6 billion in 2020.


Google released AdWords in 2000.
The AdWords device changed to start with applied on the pinnacle of the MySQL database engine.
After the device was released, control determined to use Oracle alternatively however changed sooner or later and reverted to MySQL after the device have become a lot slower.
Eventually, Google evolved a custom disbursed Relational database control device referred to as Google F1 mainly for the desires of the Ad business.
The interface gives Spreadsheet Editing, Search Query Reports, and conversion metrics.
In 2008
Google released the Google Online Marketing Challenge, an in-magnificence educational exercise for tertiary college students.
Over 8,000 college students from forty-seven nations participated withinside the project in 2008.
Over 10,000 college students from fifty-eight nations took element in 2009.
Approximately 12,000 college students in 2010.
And nearly 15,000 college students from 70 nations in 2011.
The project runs annually, more or less from January to June.
In April 2013
Google introduced plans to feature more excellent campaigns for AdWords as a useful resource with marketing campaign control catered to multiple-tool users.
The more excellent campaigns aimed to encompass superior reviews approximately users.
This flow changed into debatable amongst advertisers.
In July 2016
Google unveiled "Showcase Shopping" advertisements.
With this format, stores can select to have a sequence of pix that seem in seek outcomes associated with diverse seek queries and keywords.
In October 2017
Google revised AdWords' day-by-day price range caps, which had been formerly set at most 120% of preset day-by-day budgets, to a most of 200%.
This extrude changed into rolled out on an identical day it changed into introduced, prompting complaints from paid seek professionals.
Google later clarified that this transformation might have an effect on the simplest short-time period campaigns of much less than 30 days and that overage fees might be refunded for campaigns jogging greater than 30 days.
On June 27, 2018
Google introduced a rebranding of Google AdWords as Google Ads on July 24, 2018.
In 2018
Bloomberg News mentioned that Google had paid hundreds of thousands of bucks to Mastercard for its customers' credit scorecard records for marketing and marketing purposes.
The deal had now no longer been publicly introduced.
Google Ads gadget is primarily based totally in part on cookies and in part on key phrases decided through advertisers.
Google makes use of those traits to location marketing and marketing reproduction on pages that they assume are probably relevant.
Advertisers pay whilst customers divert their surfing to click on the marketing and marketing reproduction.
Adverts may be carried out locally, nationally, or internationally.
Google's textual content classified ads mimic what the common seek end result seems like on Google.
Image commercials may be one of the numerous one-of-a-kind standardized sizes as distinctive through the Interactive Advertising Bureau.
In May 2016
Google introduced Expanded Text Ads, permitting 23% greater textual content.
Besides the Google seek engine, advertisers additionally have the choice of permitting their commercials to reveal on Google's accomplice networks.
A listing of web websites such as:
  • AOL seeks.
  • Ask.com.
  • Netscape, which acquires a part of the generated income.
The Keyword Planner offers records on Google searches and different assets to assist plan marketing and marketing campaigns.
AdWords Express is a function geared toward small agencies that try and lessen the issue of dealing with advert campaigns with the aid of using mechanically dealing with key phrases and advert placement.
Google Ads Editor is a downloadable application that lets customers make bulk modifications to advertisements and edit advertisements offline. It additionally lets customers peer advert performance, just like the dashboard.
Google Ads Manager Accounts lets customers manipulate more than one bill from one login and dashboard.
This is maximum generally utilized by Marketing and Advertising companies who manipulate a massive portfolio of consumer bills.
The Reach Planner lets customers forecast the attain and quantity of their video advertisements through YouTube and Google video partners.
The device lets customers select their target market and then recommends an aggregate of video advertisements that assist attain the user's targets and notice the attain in their advertisements.
In addition to place and language concentrated on, advertisers can specify Internet Protocol addresses to be excluded. According to a marketing campaign, advertisers can exclude as many as 500 IP copes with stages.
Google Academy for Ads presents a qualification to customers who by skipping a Google Ads Fundamentals examination and one Advanced AdWords examination on seek, show, video, shopping, cell marketing, and marketing, or Google Analytics.
Google Partners should preserve a minimum spend threshold of US$10,000 over ninety days, with a better spend threshold for Google Premier Partners.
Placement-centered commercials are location advertisements primarily based totally on key phrases, domains, and topics, and demographically concentrated on alternatives entered with the aid of using the advertiser.
If domains are centered, Google additionally presents a listing of associated websites for placement.
Advertisers bid on a cost-according-to-affect or cost-according-to-click on the foundation for online web websites.
Remarketing lets entrepreneurs expose commercials to customers which have formerly visited their internet site and lets entrepreneurs create exceptional target market lists primarily based totally on the conduct of internet site site visitors.
Remarketing Lists for Search through Google Analytics have become to be had in Google Ads in early June 2015, bearing in mind using widespread GA remarketing lists to plot conventional textual content seek advertisements.
Dynamic remarketing can display beyond site visitors the particular services or products they viewed.
While common, a few customers can also locate overly overt use intrusive.
Ad extensions permit advertisers to expose greater information, inclusive of a commercial enterprise cope with, telecoil smartphone number, hyperlinks to an internet web page or app, prices, or income and promotions.
Google Ads can also show automatic extensions inclusive of customer scores whilst the gadget predicts they may enhance performance.
Having granted greater than $10 billion in loose marketing and marketing for over 115,000 nonprofits throughout fifty-one international locations for the reason that 2003.
The Google Ad Grants make a contribution of as much as $10,000 according to the month of in-type seek marketing and marketing.
Google Ads delivered Enhanced conversion to make conversion size greater accurate
Performance Max, a brand new kind of marketing campaign, is launched to offer the possibility to promote its agencies with an unmarried marketing campaign throughout:
  • Google channels inclusive YouTube.
  • Display.
  • Search.
  • Discover.
  • Gmail.
  • And Maps, rather than getting to create one for every channel.
Restrictions on advert content
The "Family status" of an advert is ready with the aid of using a Google reviewer and shows what “audiences the advert and internet site are suitable for”.
This impacts whilst and where, along with wherein international locations, an advert can appear.
As of December 2010
Google AdWords reduced regulations on the income of difficult alcohol. It now lets in advertisements that sell the sale of difficult alcohol and liquor.
This is an extension of a coverage alternate that turned into made in December 2008, which accepted advertisements that sell the branding of difficult alcohol and liquor.
Some key phrases, inclusive of the ones associated with hacking, aren't allowed at all.
In June 2007
Google banned AdWords advertisements for pupil essay-writing offerings, a flow that acquired tremendous remarks from universities.
Google has numerous particular key phrases and classes that it prohibits that change with the aid of using kind and with the aid of using country.
For example,
Using key phrases for alcohol-associated merchandise is illegal in Thailand and Turkey; key phrases for playing and casinos are prohibited in Poland; key phrases for abortion offerings are prohibited in Russia and Ukraine, and key phrases for adult-associated products or services are prohibited globally as of June 2014.
In Early 2022
Google paused all advert income in Russia in reaction to the continued disaster in Ukraine.
In March 2020
At the start of the Coronavirus disaster, Google blocked all face masks key phrases from being eligible for advert concentrated on as a part of coverage to save agencies from trying to capitalize on the pandemic.
Every time a person conducts a seek on Google, Google Ads runs a public sale in real-time to decide which seek commercials are displayed on the seek outcomes web page in addition to the advert's role.
The price of a Google Ads marketing campaign, therefore, relies upon a whole lot of factors, which include the most quantity an advertiser is inclined to pay in line with clicking on the key phrases being bid on, and the first-rate rating of the advert.
Although a sophisticated bidding approach may be used to routinely attain a predefined price-in line with-acquisition, this ought to now no longer be burdened with a hard and fast CPA pricing model.
Conversion monitoring
In addition to monitoring clicks, Google Ads offers advertisers the capacity to tune and file different conversions that take place after the pressing consisting of purchases, sign-ups, or calls.
Conversion monitoring is carried out via way of means of sending an identifier to the advertiser's internet site as a URL parameter, which is then utilized by the advertiser to ship conversions to Google Ads, permitting Google Ads to hint conversion lower back to the unique click on for reporting.
Google additionally lets advertisers put in a pixel on their internet site that sends conversions to the Adwords account.
This lets advertisers goal their commercials to power conversions greater effectively.
For maximum traffic, Google sends a completely unique identifier for every click on it, permitting it to decide the supply of conversion precisely.
To follow monitoring regulations on Apple devices, anonymized identifiers that are not related to precise men and women are used. Google Ads offers the capacity to file lots of such nameless conversions via way of means of the use of "modeled conversions" that integrate extra consumer information to deduce, which person to characteristic the conversion to.
Google Ads were the situation of complaints regarding trademark law, fraud, and click-on fraud.
Overture Services, Inc. sued Google for patent infringement in April 2002 in terms of the AdWords service.
The healthy turned into settled in 2004 after Yahoo! obtained Overture; Google agreed to difficulty 2.7 million stocks of not unusual place inventory to Yahoo! in trade for a perpetual license below the patent.
In 2006, Google settled a click-on fraud lawsuit for US$ninety million.
In May 2011, Google canceled the AdWords commercial bought via way of means of a Dublin intercourse employee rights organization named "Turn Off the Blue Light".
claiming that it represented an "egregious violation" of business enterprise advert coverage via way of means of "promoting Grownup sexual services".
TOBL is a nonprofit marketing campaign for intercourse employee rights and isn't always marketing and marketing or promoting Grownup sexual services.
After TOBL contributors held a protest outdoors Google's European headquarters in Dublin and despatched in written proceedings, Google reviewed the organization's internet site.
Google discovered the internet site content material to be advocating a political role and restored the AdWords commercial.
In June 2012
Google rejected the Australian Sex Party's commercials for AdWords and backed seek outcomes for July 12 via way of means of election for the kingdom seat of Melbourne.
Pronouncing the Australian Sex Party breached its guidelines which save you from solicitation of donations via way of means of an internet site that did now no longer show tax-exempt status.
Although the Australian Sex Party amended its internet site to show tax deductibility information, Google banned the commercials.
The commercials had been reinstated on election eve after it turned into pronounced withinside the media that the Australian Sex Party turned thinking about suing Google.
On September 13, 2012
The Australian Sex Party lodged formal proceedings in opposition to Google with the America Department of Justice and the Australian opposition watchdog, accusing Google of "illegal interference with inside the behavior of a kingdom election in Victoria with corrupt intent" in violation of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.
In December 2019
France fined Google €one hundred fifty million for advertiser suspensions on Google Ads, arguing it had "abused its dominant role via way of means of adopting opaque and hard to apprehend guidelines" which it turned into then loose to "interpret and modify" at its personal discretion.
Trademarked key phrases
Google has come below hearthplace for permitting AdWords advertisers to bid on trademarked key phrases.
In 2004
Google began permitting advertisers to bid on an extensive type of seeking phrases withinside the US and Canada, which include emblems in their competitors, and in May 2008 accelerated this coverage to the United Kingdom and Ireland.
Advertisers are confined from the use of different groups' emblems of their commercial textual content if the trademark has been registered with the Advertising Legal Support team.
In March 2010
Google turned into concerned in a hallmark infringement case related to 3 French groups that personal Louis Vuitton emblems.


What is Google AdWord's approach/strategy?
Google Ads, formerly Google Adwords, lets you put it on the market and sell your services and products whilst customers look for applicable keywords.
If you've got got a very good approach outlined, you'll be capable of delivering your income a very good increase and attaining greater and higher capability clients.
What are the three standards of Google Ads?
The blessings/benefits of Google Ads
All the virtual advertising answers from Google Ads are primarily based totally on 3 crucial standards: relevance, management (control), and effects (results).
To higher recognize its blessings is crucial to recognize the standards:
  • Relevance: your commercials seem simple whilst a person is seeking out information, a product, or a carrier like yours, and you could personalize components like keywords, audiences, location, and location to get the maximum applicable clients. It was when you attain the proper person, at the proper time, with the proper message.
  • Control: you could alter your marketing campaign at any time. The platform lets you modify marketing campaign settings, commercials, budget, start, and quit date, or pause and restart a marketing campaign whilst you exchange your marketing campaign approach. You can manage your budget, selecting how tons to spend in step with month, day, or ad.
  • Results: dimension information makes it smooth to look at how your campaigns and commercials are performing. Smart generation gear can help you create, manage, and optimize your campaigns so that you can get the maximum from your investment. Pay your handiest for effects, like clicks on your internet site or video watched, for example.
What are three marketing and marketing strategies?
What Types of Advertising Strategies Are There?
  • Content Advertising. This marketing and marketing approach seeks to without delay have an impact on customers thru one-of-a-kind channels, with a right-away and clear message that objectives to attain as many humans as possible.
  • Pull Advertising.
  • Push Advertising.
What is Google AdWords in easy words?
Google Ads is Google's online marketing and marketing program.
Through Google Ads, you could create online commercials to attain humans precisely whilst they are interested in the goods and offerings which you offer.
Is Google Ads an advertising approach?
Paid Search Advertising or PPC
This online advertising approach makes use of offerings along with Google Ads to sell companies thru commercials that seem on seek engine effects pages.
Companies pay to have their unique textual content commercials seen each time clients look for a delegated time period on Google.
Which approach is great for marketing and marketing?
Here are a number of the great kinds of marketing and marketing utilized by small companies to sell a product, carrier, or content:
  • Social Media Advertising.
  • Pay-Per-Click Advertising.
  • Mobile Advertising.
  • Print Advertising.
  • Broadcast Advertising.
  • Out-of-Home Advertising.
  • Direct Mail Advertising.
  • Target the Right Audience.
Is Google AdWords smooth (easy)?
It is a huge enterprise and if you have not tapped into its capability.
Be warned though: Google AdWords is straightforward, however now no longer smooth.
It takes time to grasp and maximum groups lose cash on it due to the fact they are now no longer affected persons sufficient to get effects from pay-in step with-click on marketing and marketing.
What advantages do Google Ads deliver to you?
More site visitors or traffic for your internet site,
It is nearly on the spot.
When you put up your first advert via Google Ads, you may begin to have greater visits to your internet site.
You can be capable of attaining your audience.
Your advertisements will seem whilst your audience searches for facts.
It is essential to set up an amazing segmentation strategy (key phrases, location, age, language, day, time, etc).
If you pick the proper key phrases you may get admission to individuals who are searching out what you're selling.
Create unique gives.
You can personalize your advertisements with the aid of using showing merchandise, income, and reductions primarily based totally on seeking key phrases.
You get short-time period outcomes.
search engine marketing techniques provide medium/long-time period outcomes.
If what you're searching out is to have on-the-spot visibility, Google Ads gives you this possibility.
6 Essential recommendations to hold in thoughts whilst developing a Google Ads Strategy
Tip 1# Define your desires and the markets
What outcomes do you need to get?
Without a doubt, that is the primary query you need to ask your self and it's far essential to do an amazing evaluation and recognize what you need to achieve.
The exact information is that because of the variety of Google Ads, you'll be capable of locating techniques for any second of the funnel.
For example, in case you are searching out a reinforcement of your content material strategy, you may use Google Ads with the aid of using getting into key phrases which might be associated with the look for facts.
If on the opposite hand, you need to grow conversions, the key phrases will revolve across the second purchase.
Once you're clear approximately the outcomes you need to achieve, it's time to determine wherein you need the advertisements to be exhibited to attain your audience.
Tip 2# Choose the proper key phrases in your advertisements
Undoubtedly, selecting exact key phrases has an immediate dating on the visibility and destiny fulfillment of your campaigns.
In fact, Google Ads makes its Keyword Planner to be had by you.
With this tool,
you'll be capable of locating the maximum applicable phrases associated with your merchandise or services.
Attaining beneficial facts approximately the frequency with which sure phrases are searched and the way the one's searches extrude through the years and, if that had been now no longer enough, calculate your marketing and marketing price range via bid estimates for every keyword.
In summary, we will deduce that a key-word is applicably contemplating those 3 factors:
Due to its notoriety: Does it generate a good-sized extent of searches?
Price in keeping with click-on (PPC): We ought to be clean approximately our price range and if we will compete with it in phrases of marketing and marketing impact.
User wishes: Each keyword has intentionality, it could be associated with the look for facts or a want to buy. It is essential to hyperlink this person's wishes with the aim of our marketing campaign.
Tip 3# Select the sort of marketing campaign that fits higher your desires
1) Search campaigns: Ideal in your ability for clients to recognize your merchandise or services. In this sort of advertisement you ought to set up a goal (direct site visitors for your internet site, growth income or generate income possibilities) and, in addition, you may simplest pay whilst there's an interaction (PPC - Pay in keeping with click on).
2) Shopping campaigns: Show your merchandise in the most important online marketplace. You will simplest pay whilst shoppers click on to visit your internet site or once they see nearby inventory.
3) Display campaigns: Advertise at the Google Display Network and sell your enterprise on Google information pages, blogs, and websites like Gmail or YouTube.
4) Video campaigns: Get your ability clients on YouTube. You will simplest pay whilst a person sees certainly considered one among your advertisements for at least 30 seconds, sees it in its entirety, or interacts with it, for example, in the event that they click on the name to action, on a card, or on a complimentary banner.
5) Universal App Campaigns (UAC): If you need to sell your app for iOS or Android in Google Search, YouTube, Google Play, etc ... appearance do no further, app campaigns are made for you. Once again, it's far very essential that you outline your goal: get downloads or direct customers to an app event. inspire person interaction. It is essential that you make an amazing choice of pics or when you have a video of the app to seize the eye of customers.
Tip 4# Create advertisements that make a difference
If you need your investments in Google Ads to be successful, you ought to create advertisements that generate interest, entice and at the identical time flawlessly give an explanation for your price proposition.
How are you able to get it?
Putting yourself withinside the footwear of the person and what they assume to locate of their searches and accomplice them with the answers you provide together along with your emblem to ask them to buy, fill out a shape or the goal which you have formerly set for yourself.
It is essential that you recognize the extensive sort of codecs and ratios that Google makes to be had to you.
Tip 5# Link Search Console with Google Ads
You may have gotten admission to the information with the intention to assist you to recognize the connection between natural searches and your Google Ads campaigns and the way you're attaining customers who seek online.
Tip 6# Permanently examine and optimize your campaigns in Google Ads
Once the put-up button is pressed, it's far very essential that you examine the outcomes and make modifications to enhance the optimization of your campaigns.
Control how the price range is being invested, examine which key phrases are acting higher, the advert agencies with the pleasant performance, and the conversion rate ... and put together to make choices to fine-track your ROI.
In fact, Google Ads gives you the Performance Planner with which you may: get admission to the forecasts of your campaigns, pick out new possibilities with the aid of using duration, and control budgets for exceptional bills and campaigns.
submitted by Riseeduo to u/Riseeduo [link] [comments]

PANDABUY GIVEAWAY EVENT!! $2000 Free Items for 10 Winners

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submitted by RepSanta to repbudgetsneakers [link] [comments]

DHCPv6-PD server doesn't get solicit

I'm NOT good at English, sorry.
My goal:
fatpig-7 simulate ISP, as PPPoE Server & give fatpig-8 IPv6 prefix.
fatpig-8 simulate router, as PPPoE client & get IPv6 prefix from fatpig-7,and send them (via RA) to downstream.
fd94:39d2:43fe::4/64 is fatpig-8 and downstream ULA prefix.
fd94:39d2:43fe::7/64 is prefix that fatpig-7 give fatpig-8.
fatpig-8's 8p8c0 connected to ISP.
fatpig-8's 8p8c1 connected to downstream.
My environment:
fatpig-7's 8p8c1 connected to fatpig-8's 8p8c0.
both are Archlinux.

My problem:
fatpig-7 doesn't get DHCPv6 solicit(from nftables counter), and fatpig-8 doesn't get prefix that fatpig-7 given.

Some info:
[email protected] ~ % cat /etc/systemd/network/42-ppp0.network [Match] Name=ppp0 [Network] ConfigureWithoutCarrier=yes MulticastDNS=yes [email protected] ~ % systemctl cat cluster1-pppoe-server.service # /etc/systemd/system/cluster1-pppoe-server.service [Unit] Description=Fatpig's PPPoE Daemon(for cluster1) After=network.target [Service] Type=simple ExecStart=/usbin/pppoe-server -F -I 8p8c1 -L -R -N 1 -k Restart=on-failure [Install] WantedBy=multi-user.target [email protected] ~ % systemctl status cluster1-pppoe-server.service ● cluster1-pppoe-server.service - Fatpig's PPPoE Daemon(for cluster1) Loaded: loaded (/etc/systemd/system/cluster1-pppoe-server.service; enabled; preset: disabled) Active: active (running) since Mon 2022-11-14 06:20:56 CST; 2h 59min ago Main PID: 308 (pppoe-server) Tasks: 2 (limit: 4390) Memory: 3.2M CPU: 458ms CGroup: /system.slice/cluster1-pppoe-server.service ├─308 /usbin/pppoe-server -F -I 8p8c1 -L -R -N 1 -k └─519 pppd plugin /uslib/rp-pppoe/rp-pppoe.so nic-8p8c1 rp_pppoe_sess 1:bc:ae:c5:dd:c9:bd rp_pppoe_service "" file /etc/ppp/pppoe-server-options nodetach noaccomp nopcomp default-asyncmap mru 1500> Nov 14 06:41:10 fatpig-7 pppd[519]: Connected to bc:ae:c5:dd:c9:bd via interface 8p8c1 Nov 14 06:41:10 fatpig-7 pppd[519]: Using interface ppp0 Nov 14 06:41:10 fatpig-7 pppd[519]: Connect: ppp0 < 8p8c1 Nov 14 06:41:13 fatpig-7 pppd[519]: user [email protected] logged in on tty 8p8c1 intf ppp0 Nov 14 06:41:13 fatpig-7 pppd[519]: peer from calling number BC:AE:C5:DD:C9:BD authorized Nov 14 06:41:13 fatpig-7 pppd[519]: local LL address fe80::342c:8e65:bd8c:4a3c Nov 14 06:41:13 fatpig-7 pppd[519]: remote LL address fe80::b4e7:c117:d6f0:c8ff Nov 14 06:41:13 fatpig-7 pppd[519]: Cannot determine ethernet address for proxy ARP Nov 14 06:41:13 fatpig-7 pppd[519]: local IP address Nov 14 06:41:13 fatpig-7 pppd[519]: remote IP address [email protected] ~ % cat /etc/ppp/pppoe-server-options # PPP options for the PPPoE server # LIC: GPL require-chap login lcp-echo-interval 10 lcp-echo-failure 2 +ipv6 [email protected] ~ % cat /etc/ppp/options # /etc/ppp/options # # Originally created by Jim Knoble  # Modified for Debian by alvar Bray  # Modified for PPP Server setup by Christoph Lameter  # Modified for ArchLinux by Manolis Tzanidakis  # # To quickly see what options are active in this file, use this command: # grep -Ev '#|^ *$' /etc/ppp/options # Specify which DNS Servers the incoming Win95 or WinNT Connection should use # Two Servers can be remotely configured # ms-dns # ms-dns # Specify which WINS Servers the incoming connection Win95 or WinNT should use # ms-wins # ms-wins # Run the executable or shell command specified after pppd has # terminated the link. This script could, for example, issue commands # to the modem to cause it to hang up if hardware modem control signals # were not available. #disconnect "chat -- \d+++\d\c OK ath0 OK" # async character map -- 32-bit hex; each bit is a character # that needs to be escaped for pppd to receive it. 0x00000001 # represents '\x01', and 0x80000000 represents '\x1f'. asyncmap 0 # Require the peer to authenticate itself before allowing network # packets to be sent or received. # Please do not disable this setting. It is expected to be standard in # future releases of pppd. Use the call option (see manpage) to disable # authentication for specific peers. auth # Use hardware flow control (i.e. RTS/CTS) to control the flow of data # on the serial port. crtscts # Use software flow control (i.e. XON/XOFF) to control the flow of data # on the serial port. #xonxoff # Specifies that certain characters should be escaped on transmission # (regardless of whether the peer requests them to be escaped with its # async control character map). The characters to be escaped are # specified as a list of hex numbers separated by commas. Note that # almost any character can be specified for the escape option, unlike # the asyncmap option which only allows control characters to be # specified. The characters which may not be escaped are those with hex # values 0x20 - 0x3f or 0x5e. #escape 11,13,ff # Don't use the modem control lines. #local # Specifies that pppd should use a UUCP-style lock on the serial device # to ensure exclusive access to the device. lock # Don't show the passwords when logging the contents of PAP packets. # This is the default. hide-password # When logging the contents of PAP packets, this option causes pppd to # show the password string in the log message. #show-password # Use the modem control lines. On Ultrix, this option implies hardware # flow control, as for the crtscts option. (This option is not fully # implemented.) modem # Set the MRU [Maximum Receive Unit] value to  for negotiation. pppd # will ask the peer to send packets of no more than  bytes. The # minimum MRU value is 128. The default MRU value is 1500. A value of # 296 is recommended for slow links (40 bytes for TCP/IP header + 256 # bytes of data). #mru 542 # Set the interface netmask to , a 32 bit netmask in "decimal dot" # notation (e.g. #netmask # Disables the default behaviour when no local IP address is specified, # which is to determine (if possible) the local IP address from the # hostname. With this option, the peer will have to supply the local IP # address during IPCP negotiation (unless it specified explicitly on the # command line or in an options file). #noipdefault # Enables the "passive" option in the LCP. With this option, pppd will # attempt to initiate a connection; if no reply is received from the # peer, pppd will then just wait passively for a valid LCP packet from # the peer (instead of exiting, as it does without this option). #passive # With this option, pppd will not transmit LCP packets to initiate a # connection until a valid LCP packet is received from the peer (as for # the "passive" option with old versions of pppd). #silent # Don't request or allow negotiation of any options for LCP and IPCP # (use default values). #-all # Disable Address/Control compression negotiation (use default, i.e. # address/control field disabled). #-ac # Disable asyncmap negotiation (use the default asyncmap, i.e. escape # all control characters). #-am # Don't fork to become a background process (otherwise pppd will do so # if a serial device is specified). #-detach # Disable IP address negotiation (with this option, the remote IP # address must be specified with an option on the command line or in # an options file). #-ip # Disable IPCP negotiation and IP communication. This option should # only be required if the peer is buggy and gets confused by requests # from pppd for IPCP negotiation. #noip # Disable magic number negotiation. With this option, pppd cannot # detect a looped-back line. #-mn # Disable MRU [Maximum Receive Unit] negotiation (use default, i.e. # 1500). #-mru # Disable protocol field compression negotiation (use default, i.e. # protocol field compression disabled). #-pc # Require the peer to authenticate itself using PAP. #+pap # Don't agree to authenticate using PAP. #-pap # Require the peer to authenticate itself using CHAP [Cryptographic # Handshake Authentication Protocol] authentication. #+chap # Don't agree to authenticate using CHAP. #-chap # Disable negotiation of Van Jacobson style IP header compression (use # default, i.e. no compression). #-vj # Increase debugging level (same as -d). If this option is given, pppd # will log the contents of all control packets sent or received in a # readable form. The packets are logged through syslog with facility # daemon and level debug. This information can be directed to a file by # setting up /etc/syslog.conf appropriately (see syslog.conf(5)). (If # pppd is compiled with extra debugging enabled, it will log messages # using facility local2 instead of daemon). #debug # Append the domain name  to the local host name for authentication # purposes. For example, if gethostname() returns the name porsche, # but the fully qualified domain name is porsche.Quotron.COM, you would # use the domain option to set the domain name to Quotron.COM. #domain  # Enable debugging code in the kernel-level PPP driver. The argument n # is a number which is the sum of the following values: 1 to enable # general debug messages, 2 to request that the contents of received # packets be printed, and 4 to request that the contents of transmitted # packets be printed. #kdebug n # Set the MTU [Maximum Transmit Unit] value to . Unless the peer # requests a smaller value via MRU negotiation, pppd will request that # the kernel networking code send data packets of no more than n bytes # through the PPP network interface. #mtu  # Set the name of the local system for authentication purposes to . # This is a privileged option. With this option, pppd will use lines in the # secrets files which have  as the second field when looking for a # secret to use in authenticating the peer. In addition, unless overridden # with the user option,  will be used as the name to send to the peer # when authenticating the local system to the peer. (Note that pppd does # not append the domain name to .) #name  # Enforce the use of the hostname as the name of the local system for # authentication purposes (overrides the name option). #usehostname # Set the assumed name of the remote system for authentication purposes # to . #remotename  # Add an entry to this system's ARP [Address Resolution Protocol] # table with the IP address of the peer and the Ethernet address of this # system. proxyarp # Use the system password database for authenticating the peer using # PAP. Note: mgetty already provides this option. If this is specified # then dialin from users using a script under Linux to fire up ppp wont work. # login # If this option is given, pppd will send an LCP echo-request frame to the # peer every n seconds. Normally the peer should respond to the echo-request # by sending an echo-reply. This option can be used with the # lcp-echo-failure option to detect that the peer is no longer connected. lcp-echo-interval 30 # If this option is given, pppd will presume the peer to be dead if n # LCP echo-requests are sent without receiving a valid LCP echo-reply. # If this happens, pppd will terminate the connection. Use of this # option requires a non-zero value for the lcp-echo-interval parameter. # This option can be used to enable pppd to terminate after the physical # connection has been broken (e.g., the modem has hung up) in # situations where no hardware modem control lines are available. lcp-echo-failure 4 # Set the LCP restart interval (retransmission timeout) to  seconds # (default 3). #lcp-restart  # Set the maximum number of LCP terminate-request transmissions to  # (default 3). #lcp-max-terminate  # Set the maximum number of LCP configure-request transmissions to  # (default 10). #lcp-max-configure  # Set the maximum number of LCP configure-NAKs returned before starting # to send configure-Rejects instead to  (default 10). #lcp-max-failure  # Set the IPCP restart interval (retransmission timeout) to  # seconds (default 3). #ipcp-restart  # Set the maximum number of IPCP terminate-request transmissions to  # (default 3). #ipcp-max-terminate  # Set the maximum number of IPCP configure-request transmissions to  # (default 10). #ipcp-max-configure  # Set the maximum number of IPCP configure-NAKs returned before starting # to send configure-Rejects instead to  (default 10). #ipcp-max-failure  # Set the PAP restart interval (retransmission timeout) to  seconds # (default 3). #pap-restart  # Set the maximum number of PAP authenticate-request transmissions to #  (default 10). #pap-max-authreq  # Set the maximum time that pppd will wait for the peer to authenticate # itself with PAP to  seconds (0 means no limit). #pap-timeout  # Set the CHAP restart interval (retransmission timeout for # challenges) to  seconds (default 3). #chap-restart  # Set the maximum number of CHAP challenge transmissions to  # (default 10). #chap-max-challenge # If this option is given, pppd will rechallenge the peer every  # seconds. #chap-interval  # With this option, pppd will accept the peer's idea of our local IP # address, even if the local IP address was specified in an option. #ipcp-accept-local # With this option, pppd will accept the peer's idea of its (remote) IP # address, even if the remote IP address was specified in an option. #ipcp-accept-remote # Disable the IPXCP and IPX protocols. # To let pppd pass IPX packets comment this out --- you'll probably also # want to install ipxripd, and have the Internal IPX Network option enabled # in your kernel. /usdoc/HOWTO/IPX-HOWTO.gz contains more info. noipx # Exit once a connection has been made and terminated. This is the default, # unless the `persist' or `demand' option has been specified. #nopersist # Do not exit after a connection is terminated; instead try to reopen # the connection. #persist # Terminate after n consecutive failed connection attempts. # A value of 0 means no limit. The default value is 10. #maxfail  # Initiate the link only on demand, i.e. when data traffic is present. # With this option, the remote IP address must be specified by the user on # the command line or in an options file. Pppd will initially configure # the interface and enable it for IP traffic without connecting to the peer. # When traffic is available, pppd will connect to the peer and perform # negotiation, authentication, etc. When this is completed, pppd will # commence passing data packets (i.e., IP packets) across the link. #demand # Specifies that pppd should disconnect if the link is idle for  seconds. # The link is idle when no data packets (i.e. IP packets) are being sent or # received. Note: it is not advisable to use this option with the persist # option without the demand option. If the active-filter option is given, # data packets which are rejected by the specified activity filter also # count as the link being idle. #idle  # Specifies how many seconds to wait before re-initiating the link after # it terminates. This option only has any effect if the persist or demand # option is used. The holdoff period is not applied if the link was # terminated because it was idle. #holdoff  # Wait for up n milliseconds after the connect script finishes for a valid # PPP packet from the peer. At the end of this time, or when a valid PPP # packet is received from the peer, pppd will commence negotiation by # sending its first LCP packet. The default value is 1000 (1 second). # This wait period only applies if the connect or pty option is used. #connect-delay  # Packet filtering: for more information, see pppd(8) # Any packets matching the filter expression will be interpreted as link # activity, and will cause a "demand" connection to be activated, and reset # the idle connection timer. (idle option) # The filter expression is akin to that of tcpdump(1) #active-filter  # uncomment the line below this if you use PPPoE #plugin /uslib/pppd/plugins/pppoe.so # ------ [email protected] ~ % ip addr show ppp0 6: ppp0:  mtu 1500 qdisc fq_codel state UNKNOWN group default qlen 3 link/ppp inet peer scope global ppp0 valid_lft forever preferred_lft forever inet6 fe80::342c:8e65:bd8c:4a3c peer fe80::b4e7:c117:d6f0:c8ff/128 scope link valid_lft forever preferred_lft forever [email protected] ~ % networkctl status ppp0 ● 6: ppp0 Link File: /uslib/systemd/network/99-default.link Network File: /etc/systemd/network/42-ppp0.network State: routable (configured) Online state: online Type: ppp Kind: ppp Driver: ppp MTU: 1500 QDisc: fq_codel IPv6 Address Generation Mode: eui64 Number of Queues (Tx/Rx): 1/1 Address: fe80::342c:8e65:bd8c:4a3c Activation Policy: up Required For Online: yes DHCP6 Client DUID: DUID-EN/Vendor:0000ab11cabfc0a33f20455b0000 Nov 14 06:29:32 fatpig-7 systemd-networkd[303]: ppp0: found matching network '/etc/systemd/network/42-ppp0.network', based on potentially unpredictable interface name. Nov 14 06:29:32 fatpig-7 systemd-networkd[303]: ppp0: Gained IPv6LL Nov 14 06:40:28 fatpig-7 systemd-networkd[303]: ppp0: Link DOWN Nov 14 06:40:28 fatpig-7 systemd-networkd[303]: ppp0: Lost carrier Nov 14 06:41:10 fatpig-7 systemd-networkd[303]: ppp0: found matching network '/etc/systemd/network/42-ppp0.network', based on potentially unpredictable interface name. Nov 14 06:41:10 fatpig-7 systemd-networkd[303]: ppp0: Configuring with /etc/systemd/network/42-ppp0.network. Nov 14 06:41:10 fatpig-7 systemd-networkd[303]: ppp0: Link UP Nov 14 06:41:10 fatpig-7 systemd-networkd[303]: ppp0: Gained carrier Nov 14 06:41:10 fatpig-7 systemd-networkd[303]: ppp0: found matching network '/etc/systemd/network/42-ppp0.network', based on potentially unpredictable interface name. Nov 14 06:41:13 fatpig-7 systemd-networkd[303]: ppp0: Gained IPv6LL [email protected] ~ % sudo nft list ruleset table inet filter { chain input { type filter hook input priority filter; policy drop; udp sport 546 counter packets 0 bytes 0 accept udp dport 547 counter packets 0 bytes 0 accept udp dport 546 counter packets 0 bytes 0 accept udp sport 547 counter packets 0 bytes 0 accept ct state vmap { invalid : drop, established : accept, related : accept } iifname "lo" accept ip protocol icmp accept meta l4proto ipv6-icmp accept udp dport 5353 accept tcp dport 22 accept } chain forward { type filter hook forward priority filter; policy drop; tcp flags syn tcp option maxseg size set rt mtu udp sport 546 counter packets 0 bytes 0 accept udp dport 547 counter packets 0 bytes 0 accept udp dport 546 counter packets 0 bytes 0 accept udp sport 547 counter packets 0 bytes 0 accept ip protocol icmp accept meta l4proto ipv6-icmp accept ct state vmap { invalid : drop, established : accept, related : accept } iifname "ppp*" oifname "8p8c0" accept } chain postrouting { type nat hook postrouting priority srcnat; policy accept; meta protocol { ip, ip6 } iifname "ppp*" oifname "8p8c0" masquerade } } [email protected] ~ % cat /etc/kea/kea-dhcp6.conf { "Dhcp6": { "interfaces-config": { "interfaces": ["ppp0"] }, "control-socket": { "socket-type": "unix", "socket-name": "/tmp/kea6-ctrl-socket" }, "lease-database": { "type": "memfile", "lfc-interval": 3600 }, "expired-leases-processing": { "reclaim-timer-wait-time": 10, "flush-reclaimed-timer-wait-time": 25, "hold-reclaimed-time": 3600, "max-reclaim-leases": 100, "max-reclaim-time": 250, "unwarned-reclaim-cycles": 5 }, "renew-timer": 1000, "rebind-timer": 2000, "preferred-lifetime": 3000, "valid-lifetime": 4000, "option-data": [ { "name": "dns-servers", "data": "2606:4700:4700::1111, 2606:4700:4700::1001" } ], "subnet6": [ { "subnet": "fd94:39d2:43fe:7::/64", "pd-pools": [ { "prefix": "fd94:39d2:43fe:7::", "prefix-len": 64, "delegated-len": 64 } ], "option-data": [ { "name": "dns-servers", "data": "2606:4700:4700::1111, 2606:4700:4700::1001" } ] } ], "loggers": [ { "name": "kea-dhcp6", "output_options": [ { "output": "/valog/kea-dhcp6.log" } ], "severity": "INFO", "debuglevel": 0 } ] } } [email protected] ~ % systemctl status kea-dhcp6.service ● kea-dhcp6.service - ISC Kea IPv6 DHCP daemon Loaded: loaded (/uslib/systemd/system/kea-dhcp6.service; enabled; preset: disabled) Active: active (running) since Mon 2022-11-14 06:21:12 CST; 3h 2min ago Docs: man:kea-dhcp6(8) Main PID: 338 (kea-dhcp6) Tasks: 5 (limit: 4390) Memory: 23.1M CPU: 1.027s CGroup: /system.slice/kea-dhcp6.service └─338 /usbin/kea-dhcp6 -c /etc/kea/kea-dhcp6.conf Nov 14 08:21:14 fatpig-7 DhcpLFC[542]: INFO [DhcpLFC.115056778495360] LFC_ROTATING LFC rotating files Nov 14 08:21:14 fatpig-7 DhcpLFC[542]: INFO [DhcpLFC.115056778495360] LFC_TERMINATE LFC finished processing Nov 14 09:21:14 fatpig-7 DhcpLFC[753]: INFO [DhcpLFC.112734131295616] LFC_START Starting lease file cleanup Nov 14 09:21:14 fatpig-7 DhcpLFC[753]: INFO [DhcpLFC.112734131295616] LFC_PROCESSING Previous file: /valib/kea/kea-leases6.csv.2, copy file: /valib/kea/kea-leases6.csv.1 Nov 14 09:21:14 fatpig-7 DhcpLFC[753]: INFO [DhcpLFC.dhcpsrv.112734131295616] DHCPSRV_MEMFILE_LEASE_FILE_LOAD loading leases from file /valib/kea/kea-leases6.csv.2 Nov 14 09:21:14 fatpig-7 DhcpLFC[753]: INFO [DhcpLFC.dhcpsrv.112734131295616] DHCPSRV_MEMFILE_LEASE_FILE_LOAD loading leases from file /valib/kea/kea-leases6.csv.1 Nov 14 09:21:14 fatpig-7 DhcpLFC[753]: INFO [DhcpLFC.112734131295616] LFC_READ_STATS Leases: 0, attempts: 2, errors: 0. Nov 14 09:21:14 fatpig-7 DhcpLFC[753]: INFO [DhcpLFC.112734131295616] LFC_WRITE_STATS Leases: 0, attempts: 0, errors: 0. Nov 14 09:21:14 fatpig-7 DhcpLFC[753]: INFO [DhcpLFC.112734131295616] LFC_ROTATING LFC rotating files Nov 14 09:21:14 fatpig-7 DhcpLFC[753]: INFO [DhcpLFC.112734131295616] LFC_TERMINATE LFC finished processing [email protected] ~ % 
submitted by RmF0cGln to linux4noobs [link] [comments]

The Thesis - Is Dead? Long live The Thesis. Global Steel Updates, Inputs, Macros, China, The Market and my ramblings.

The Thesis - Is Dead? Long live The Thesis. Global Steel Updates, Inputs, Macros, China, The Market and my ramblings.
I know it's been a long time since you've seen me post a DD and update to what's going on in the world of steel.
The rumors of my demise are false and I have not gone into hiding or as many have speculated, "witness protection", but rather I have been inundated with life.
Before I get into what will likely be walls and walls of text, fancy graphs and information that will likely feel like you are being reeducated like this:

I want to touch on myself and this sub.
I have been lurking in the shadows for quite a while and honestly I've started this DD about 10 different times over the past few weeks and just couldn't find the time to deliver something I would be proud of.
Let's start with this sub - I absolutely love it and the people that have come here to follow the thesis.
With that being said, I stated months ago that I did not want this sub to be about one person - me.
My goal from the beginning was always to educate everyone about the commodity I love so much - steel, but it was more important to create a community of sharing and fellowship.
There are so many other brilliant people that have posted here, many with much more to offer and have done so out of the kindness of their hearts and to help others become more educated and intelligent investors.
Sure, we can have debates and argue "Bull" & "Bear" cases for everything, IT'S ALWAYS BEEN ENCOURAGED.
Echo Chambers benefit no one other than people with big egos.
I have also, ALWAYS said, if you have ideas that will make money, share them!
I love steel, but I love money more.
This sub is only as strong as the fabric of the people that decide to interact and share ideas here.
If you want to complain, please do so in a civil and well thought out manner - always be kind - trust me, you'll feel better for it.
Now, before we take the journey together down the rabbit hole, I wanted to briefly touch on my absence from posting.
As I said, I've been here the entire time watching and there are quite a few people here that I engage with and talk to daily.
When I was posting consistently, there seemed to be a lot of apprehension into "if this play is so good, why do you have to keep reminding us??"
I got a lot of complaints about the constant "pumping".
It was never "pumping" - it was me doing what I do throughout my life and that is committing 100%, actually, overcommitting to be honest.
My updates were meant to give everyone visibility into what I still believe to be the MOST SIGNIFICANT TRANSFORMATIONAL SHIFT in the history of the steel business, with the last being the invention of the EAF.
Then, I backed off posting, not because I believed the thesis was dead or prices came down on our beloved steel tickers.
As soon as I stopped, then the other side of the crowd was unhappy.
"Thesis Dead"
"No Lambo"
"These bags are heavy"
Here's one from the other day from u/needafiller
"Hey man, I haven't checked my portfolio of MT Jan calls in 2 months. But judging from your MIA status and the status of the sub, I'm guessing my calls will expire worthless. Thanks for teaching me a valuable and expansive lesson"
I'm guessing he meant "expensive". . . .regardless, I have realized a couple things:
  1. I am never going to make you all happy.
  2. I am not responsible for your choices.
Believe it or not, those two things were very hard for me, as of course, we all want to be liked and I want all of you to prosper.
The amount of messages I get asking my opinion on portfolios and trades is sheer lunacy and became overwhelming.
Many weren't even very friendly, much like it was my obligation to answer without even a greeting or a pleasantry.
Ok, I know I've ranted quite a bit and I'm sure some of you are about to have a full-blown seizure from all of the eye-rolling and pontificating, but let me say one last thing about me and I'll move on.
I am a person, I have a demanding career, I have a family, I have a life outside of here that I ended up neglecting trying to pour myself into this sub for almost the past year.
There are only so many hours in a day and time is the most valuable thing we all have, next to our health.
We all need to have priorities and this sub is going to have to move down my list a bit.
I am honored that many of you think so highly of what I share, it is greatly appreciated.
I will share when I can, but I have to say - there are many here that are doing a great job and carrying the baton - thanks!
Now, let's get on with the show.
There is just so much to unpack that I feel like I need to start over, but I'm not going to do that.
The information I shared is there and it is still relevant today and part of the ever-evolving thesis.
For those that keep asking questions - please read all my past DD's to get up to speed.
So many topics - where do we start?????
China, China, China has really been the hot topic of not only the steel world, but also the global economy. The GDP slowdown, Evergrande, power outages, property market, construction, coal, steel output cut to multi-year lows, etc. It's a lot to digest and well the market has been choking on it for the past 30+ days.
Everyone knows that China has always been the world's market setter for steel prices, as they are the largest manufacturer as a country, collectively in the world.
The way it used to work was China would export their low cost steel and create a domino effect across the globe - lowering many countries steel prices by putting pressure on their domestic manufacturers and many times forcing them to export to other countries their excess capacities.
We are no longer seeing the deluge of low cost Chinese steel flowing out of the country.
Instead, there is less and less available month over month, as now production has not only been cut, but so have the hours in which Chinese manufacturers can operate.
The Kaohsiung-based company urged Taiwanese steel-using companies to take advantage of the lower steel prices to prepare for Environmental Social Governance (ESG) challenges it sees coming down the line for related industries.
“We hope that our downstream buyers can take full advantage of this period of price stability in steel to accelerate their ESG transition efforts and be prepared for the worldwide trend in decarbonization,” China Steel said in a statement.
The company also said it plans to reduce carbon emissions from 2018 levels by 7 percent by 2025, and to be completely carbon neutral by 2050.
“We will be following the lead of Tata Steel Europe and Germany’s Thyssenkrupp Steel in adding a carbon surcharge,” the company said.
China Steel said that several factors are indicating a rebound in Asian steel prices in the fourth quarter, including a rise in demand due to a global economic recovery as well as a surge in raw material costs.
“The strict ‘dual-control’ electricity use policy mandated that many steelmakers in China can only run during off-peak hours from November 15 to March 15, 2022,” the company said.
“We predict that crude steel production will decrease by at least 30 percent,” it added.
In addition to predicting tighter supplies due to electricity shortages, the company said that the price of coking coal has broken US$400 per tonne, while iron ore, which hit bottom last month, has risen by nearly 40 percent.
“Given the tightness in supply of various steel smelting materials and the Baltic Dry Index has reached a 13-year high, we expect Asian steel prices to rebound,” China Steel said.
The Baltic Dry Index is a bellwether index for global dry bulk shipping, which has surged alongside demand for coal imports amid a global energy crunch.
Global and domestic demand for steel is expected to be strong, said the state-run company, which has a committee decide the price of steel for domestic delivery, monthly for some products and quarterly for others.
The World Steel Association predicted that “the demand for global steel will grow by 4.5 percent year-on-year to 1.86 billion tonnes, and that a further 2.2 percent growth year-on-year is expected in 2022,” China Steel said, adding that it expects a bullish steel market until next year.
China’s production in September fell by close to 20 percent year on year (YoY) and around 11 percent month on month (MoM). This, however, is positive for steel companies as it points to structural changes that are likely to be seen in the global steel environment, which has been the key focus for many months.
We are in an environment of high input costs with coal, fuel, transportation, labor - the inflation that was called transitory is very much here and I believe it is here to stay for quite a long time.
The commodities that are likely to be most affected by the looming energy crisis are the industrial metals, agriculture, and the precious metals sector, Capital Economics commodities economist Edward Gardner said in a report.
"Historically, energy prices have been most correlated with industrial metal prices, followed by agricultural prices, and precious metals prices. This is also evident from the annual correlations of different commodity prices with energy prices," the report said.
The higher the energy prices rise, the more it will cost to produce these commodities. "The precise association between energy prices and other commodity prices, however, depends on both the energy intensity of production and the similarity of underlying demand drivers," the report clarified.
Industrial metals seem to be the most correlated with energy prices. "It is clear that industrial metal prices track energy prices the most closely over time, which is mainly because the drivers of demand are similar. That said, industrial metals, like many commodities, require large energy inputs to produce, which is another reason why their prices tend to move together," Gardner said.
The metals sector accounts for 10% of global energy usage. More specifically, steel production takes up 6.5% of global energy usage.
Power prices have been rising all year. The situation, however, has become particularly acute since the summer. Natural gas prices have spiked and coal prices on the spot market have risen strongly.
The shortage of natural gas in Europe has driven the cost increases. Furthermore, it has encouraged power producers to shift to coal, just as global coal prices have surged on the back of output shortfalls in China and India. Those shortfalls have resulted in increased imports by the world’s two largest thermal coal consumers. (Also the world's largest steel producers)
Steel mills are already imposing power cost increases of up to Euros 50 per ton on long products to cover mostly power-related costs but, to a lesser extent, transport costs within Europe, too. The region is suffering from an acute lack of drivers and transport capacity.
Both production cutbacks and energy-specific surcharges are likely to become an increasing feature of the European metal market this year. They will probably also be a factor into next year, as high electricity, coal and natural gas costs are going to be sustained through the winter season, with little hope that inventory levels will be replenished — and, therefore, easing of prices — before next summer.
I expect prices for steel products to stay high on the back on increased inputs as well as supply chain restocking world-wide for the next 12-18 months.
The global recovery is still uneven and cutbacks will further exacerbate supply shortages, causing demand to push prices higher.
Also, steel manufacturers are passing on the increased costs of steelmaking by not only increasing prices, but also in the form of surcharges.
My personal opinion is that we see steel prices continue to rise on the back of inflationary pressures, as well as increased prices of many other commodities.
That brings me to the US and the steel market here, which remains red hot in terms of demand with supply still not catching up.
Depending on the product, lead times are anywhere from 6 to 22 weeks.
Remember, the US is an "insulated market" in many regards due to the deep moat right now that is the Section 232 tariffs as well as the nosebleed costs of ocean freight from other countries to the US.
I'll first touch on shipping costs.
The problem is the lack of vessels, especially the smaller ships that handle bulk freight.
The Supermax vessels are all transporting 20' and 40' containers - which is also a nightmare in itself.
Prior to COVID, the cost to move a ton of steel from Europe and Asia was roughly $20 per metric ton.
Today, it is $160 per metric ton.
That is an 800% increase.
Then you have congestion problems all over the US, which is extending lead times, increasing costs of trucking and rail.
As of this morning:
Rail Terminal Updates:
  • There is a severe congestion, limited gate capacity, restrictions, rail car shortages and limited reservations. This is causing increased delays on import rail units.
  • At the end of September, BNSF (Burlington Northern Santa Fe) announced an embargo to Los Angeles for all cargo to LAX/Hobart, affecting operations from Chicago.
  • BNSF closure for LAX-bound cargo extended through October 15th.
  • In LAX, containers have to wait an average of almost 16 days before being picked up.
Chicago Rail Ramp:
  • The rail facilities in Chicago are experiencing severe congestion because of dwelling containers and chassis shortages. G3 and G4 locations are only allowing ten open spots daily, causing a large backlog for containers to be picked up for imports.
  • There are gate restrictions and lane suspensions implemented, causing delays in pick-ups and deliveries. The rails continue to monitor in-gates with allocation or reservations.
  • Severe shortages of available chassis, extended delays in pick-ups, deliveries, and drayage.
  • Continued congestion and delays at the local ramps, shortage of chassis and equipment.
Jacksonville and Miami:
  • Congestion issues at both rails. The rail congestion in Chicago is affecting services out of Miami. Long delays in picking up/dropping off.
  • Congestion due to increased dwell time for Import rail cargo. Cargo going to Chicago delayed by up to 10 days. Limited trucker capacity.
  • The warehouse is up to capacity, long waiting line for export/import.
  • Rail Ramp congestion due to increased volumes and delayed pick-ups.
  • There is a severe chassis shortage and congestion. Truckers are booked for 2-3 weeks in advance.
Port Terminals:
Due to increased volume, most terminals are experiencing congestion issues, including Philadelphia, Savannah, Miami, Houston, Seattle, Los Angeles/Long Beach.
1. U.S. East Coast:
  • Vessel waiting time is 24-36 hours due to high import volume.
  • Vessel waiting time is 7 days due to off proforma vessels and high import volume. Carriers are advancing cut-offs with little to no notice, which highly affects operations.
Port Everglades and Miami:
  • Vessel waiting time is 3-6 days causing a CFS Backlog. Equipment shortages are resulting in pick-up delays.
2. U.S. West Coast:
Around 70 container ships are still waiting off the coast of California to unload at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.
Los Angeles:
  • Vessel waiting time is 8-15 days due to yard congestion, high import dwell, and labor shortage.
Long Beach:
  • Up to a 15-day vessel waiting time due to high import dwell and labor shortages.
  • 25-30-day vessel waiting time due to high import volume and labor shortages.
  • 1-2-day vessel waiting time due to high import volume and labor shortages.
3. U.S. Gulf Coast:
  • Waiting time is 2-4 days due to high import volume and labor shortage.
Equipment Availability:
  • There is a continuous chassis shortage in LAX/Long Beach, New York, Philadelphia, Saint Louis, Columbus, Cleveland, Chicago, Memphis, Atlanta, Nashville, and Louisville.
  • Equipment availability remains an issue at locations such as Atlanta, Chicago, Cincinnati, Columbus, Detroit, Kansas City, Minneapolis, Memphis, Nashville, Omaha, St. Louis, and Seattle.
Do you think we may have a little bit of a problem here??
It's why I told everyone to do their Christmas shopping back in June.
It's only showing signs of worsening as global supply chains keep trying to catch up and restock, but demand continues to outpace supply.
Now the tariffs.
"We're hopeful we can reach agreement by the end of the month," the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters.
A steel industry source said Tai and the EU were edging closer to a likely agreement that would replace the Section 232 tariffs with a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) arrangement that would allow duty-free entry of a specified volume of EU steel, with tariffs applied to higher volumes.
This person said that talks are "going well," but was reluctant to say that a deal would be reached by Oct. 31.
Dombrovskis has expressed openness to a quota arrangement similar to those that Canada and Mexico have with the United States, but said a deal is needed by early November.
Other EU officials have told Reuters that much depends on the volume of steel allowed duty free into U.S. ports.
The industry source said EU negotiators were seeking to base the quota on U.S. import volumes prior to the imposition of the 232 tariffs in 2018, while U.S. negotiators want to base the quotas on lower volumes after the tariffs were imposed.
I've said for a while now that I believe the elimination of these tariffs would be good for the US, as it would bring extra supply into a market that is in dire need of surplus material.
It would give price stability to US manufacturing that would be able to plan better and buy material at a discount from current spot prices in the US.
We all knew $2,000/ton steel would not last forever, even if it normalizes around $1,200 to $1,400 per ton, it would still be 250%+ above historic norms.
$CLF, $NUE, $STLD, $X, etc. would all still throw off obscene amounts of FCF at these levels.
In addition, there would be a quota system in place, which means the supply into the US is FINITE.
There would not be a flood of cheap import steel, but rather supplemental supply that would benefit US manufacturers and also, most notably, still my baby - $MT.
EU HRC is approx. $950/MT, add the 25% tariff of $237.50 = $1187.50/MT
Freight is $160/MT
Total landed to a US port is $1,347.50/MT, then you have unloading and reloading to a truck or rail costs and then the trucking or rail freight costs, which could land you into the Midwest at as much as $1,450/MT.
That price would be great today, but shipments from Europe would not arrive in the US until February at the earliest.
February US Midwest futures sit at $1,380 today.
So, doesn't make much sense.
However, take away $237.50/MT and it makes a lot of sense.
We will see how this plays out, but I do not see it as a detriment to US manufacturers.
It could be a big win for EU steel manufacturers however, especially if ocean freight decreases, but that is not looking likely until at least Q3 of next year in my opinion.
Many executives I talk to believe 2022 will be a carbon copy of 2021 in terms of lack of supply heading into next year and prices moving back up throughout the year due to demand and inflationary pressures.
Let's jump back to inflation for a bit because I think it's a real important concept and we have been told for months now that it was transitory.
I never really agreed with that assessment, how inflation is measured and the commodities that are all lumped together.
Regardless, news last week that U.S. inflation is running at a 13-year high of 5.4 percent confirmed what many Americans already know as they juggle their budgets: Food, energy and shelter costs are all rising rapidly, adding to the strain Americans were already dealing with from the higher costs of hard-to-find goods such as cars, dishwashers and washing machines.
Workers are demanding pay increases because they can see their wages aren’t buying as much with so many everyday necessities costing more, including rent. That leads companies to hike prices more, then workers turn around and demand another pay raise. Economists call this phenomenon a “wage-price spiral.” It often leads to sustained high inflation that forces the Fed to step in to stop it.
Rising food, gas and rent costs hit the budgets of low- and middle-income Americans hard. While wages have been rising at the fastest pace in decades, the gains have been eaten up entirely by rising costs, Labor Department data shows. This prompts workers to ask for more pay.
“The wage-price spiral has already begun,” said economist Sung Won Sohn of Loyola Marymount University and SS Economics. “In the financial markets and the economy, the biggest long-term problem we have is inflation. You can’t turn the inflation rate on and off.”
Higher wages, in my opinion, are not transitory.
Higher steel prices, also in my opinion, are not transitory either.
This is where we get back to the most fundamental change in steel making - which is the "Green" initiative and becoming carbon neutral.
This is going to require A LOT of scrap and from the beginning of this thesis I said steel prices in the future would be fought over the cost of scrap and more importantly - the supply of scrap.
I'll get back to scrap shortly, but I believe inflation will be another catalyst to keep steel prices elevated for the foreseeable future.
We hear about inflation here in the US, but a lot of people don't realize that China is actually exporting inflation at this point.
Remember earlier when I talked about China being able to deflate steel prices across the world?
They have been able to export deflation for decades by having stagnant wages and manipulating their currency through low interest rates.
Today, inflation "revenge" has caught up with China. Like everybody else in the world, China is dealing with all kinds of commodity shortages including copper, coal, steel, and iron ore, chickens, lumber, etc. China has its own supply problems and rising prices. While China hopes this is temporary, its economy has developed enough in recent decades, and workforce wages have risen enough, that the days when they can supply goods at "lower prices" to keep inflation at bay are over.
As material prices soar, China's factory-gate inflation has hit 13-year high levels. China is now set to be exporting inflation to the world. Given that China is facing high internal demand from its own population and that the earning power of its citizens is increasing, it is becoming virtually impossible to pressure its workforce to accept the "old cheap" wages that it used to pay its labor. Devaluing their currencies is no longer a viable option they can use either as an indirect way to lower their labor purchasing power. It all comes down to "scarcity of natural resources". No wonder why prices of all kinds of commodities are rising.
Then we have the DXY, which has actually strengthened over the past 3 months from a low of 89.6 to 93.9, it is still flat on the 1 year chart.


Weakening U.S. Dollar

A combination of the budget deficit and the current account deficit is seen as a long-term structural driver of a weaker U.S. dollar. The speed and size of government stimulus packages in response to the global pandemic have been unprecedented. As a result of the federal government pumping trillions into the economy, the twin deficits reached all-time lows earlier this year.

The U.S. budget deficit rose to $2.71 trillion through August, on track to be the second-largest shortfall in history due to trillions of dollars in COVID relief.
Given the likelihood of a two-year gap between the beginning of the Fed’s tapering of bond purchases and the first interest rate increase, the dollar may struggle to rise past its current levels through the end of 2022
The value of the dollar is very important for commodity prices because the U.S. dollar is the benchmark pricing mechanism for most commodities. Commodity prices have an inverse relationship with the dollar value, so a declining dollar means rising prices.
As the world starts to reopen and the recovery becomes more global and even, I believe we will see the USD weaken against other currencies, especially if we see a passage of the $3.5T, $2.5T or whatever package that President Biden is trying to get through Congress as it will mean more money printing and higher corporate taxes.
Speaking of Infrastructure - that will be yet another catalyst for steel prices in the United States.
There are plenty of positives in the demand outlook, including the bipartisan infrastructure bill with about $550 billion in additional spending planned. In Nucor's July 22, Q2 earnings call, CEO Leon Topalian said the infrastructure bill should boost steel demand "by as much as 5 million tons per year for every $100 billion of new investment."
This afternoon $STLD reported earnings.
Steel Dynamics earnings were seen exploding to $4.95 from 51 cents a year ago, according to Zacks Investment Research. Revenue was seen more than doubling to $4.99 billion.
Steel Dynamics earnings came in $4.96 a share, just beating views. However, another consensus forecast had EPS at $4.57, which STLD comfortably beat. Revenue leapt 118.5% to $5.09 billion.
"We continue to see strong steel demand coupled with moderating, but still historically low customer inventories throughout the supply chain," CEO Mark Millett said in a statement. "We believe this momentum will continue and that our fourth quarter consolidated earnings could represent another record performance."
Other strengths include lean stocks throughout the supply chain, with automakers needing to rebuild "staggeringly low" inventories, he said.
The lift in oil prices also could boost demand in the oil sector that's been a drag throughout the pandemic.
Steel prices have always been strongly correlated with oil prices and I believe we will see this continue.
That brings me to scrap.
The big news last week was $CLF entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Ferrous Processing and Trading Company.
This completes the vertical integration for $CLF and LG knows that the future will be largely dependent on EAF manufacturing and the utilization of scrap as the input of choice.
Transaction rationale:
  • Allows Cliffs to optimize productivity at its existing EAFs and BOFs as the Company has no current plans to add additional steelmaking capacity
  • Expands portfolio of high-quality ferrous raw materials to include iron ore pellets, direct-reduced iron, and now prime scrap
  • Immediately secures substantial access to prime scrap, where demand is expected to grow dramatically with limited to no growth in corresponding supply
  • Creates a platform for Cliffs to leverage long-standing flat-rolled automotive and other customer relationships into recycling partnerships to grow prime scrap presence
  • Furthers commitment to environmentally-friendly, low-carbon intensity steelmaking with cleaner materials mix
Global View of Scrap: Uptrend of international scrap market continues unabated
- Over the past week, the international scrap market has continued its uptrend unabated. In Turkey’s import scrap market, the price has increased by 7.57 percent or $34/mt week on week for prime HMS I/II 80:20 scrap. The month-on-month price rise is now 12.9 percent. Higher freight costs boosted by strong demand are still pushing up prices in Turkey, while market players have started to say that the psychological threshold of $500/mt will be reached and exceeded in the coming week. Some mills are already concluding deep sea scrap deals for December shipments to secure needed tonnages.
- On the US side, October scrap prices were settled less than a week ago and, now, many in the market have turned their sights to the next buy cycle, which will start in just over two weeks. There are numerous planned maintenance outages that had been scheduled to take place in the last four months of the year. Market players agree that a downward movement is unlikely in the local US scrap market, though, as far as how much upside the market could experience, sentiment is largely mixed. Whereas some believe that shredded scrap, which settled at roughly $450-455/gt in the Ohio Valley and Northeast, could tick up to $470-475/gt next month (with similar upticks seen for other scrap grades in this region), others believe that that the only mills that will pay higher prices next month are those that decreased prices down during this month’s buy cycle.
- South Korean mills have continued to raise their import scrap prices in deals concluded from Russia and Japan. SteelOrbis has learned that Dongkuk Steel has bought 27,000 mt of Russian A3 grade scrap at $534/mt CFR, $51/mt higher than the previous deal in late September. Suppliers from the US are going to target not less than $545/mt CFR for HMS I in South Korea in the next round of sales, while the previous sale price was rumored at $522.5/mt CFR. Demand for the lower grade ex-Japan scrap from South Korea has been not very high, so the tradable level for ex-Japan H2 scrap in South Korea has remained almost stable at JPY 52,000-53,000/mt ($458-467/mt) FOB, while a number of new deals for shredded, HS and shindachi have been reported in the market at increased prices.
- Vietnamese steelmakers have faced higher offers for scrap from the US and Japan and, though bids have also started to increase gradually, trading has been inactive this week. Japanese H2 grade scrap offers to Vietnam are currently in the range of $535-550/mt CFR, while Vietnamese buyers’ target prices for this grade is at $525/mt CFR for now. Also, ex-US HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offers to Vietnam at $550/mt CFR, while tradable prices have also increased to $535-540/mt CFR, up by $15-20/mt on average from last week.
- The import scrap price increase in Pakistan during the current week has been gaining momentum, following the global trend. By the end of the week, offers for shredded 211 scrap of European origin reached $550-555/mt CFR, up $30/mt over the past week, with Pakistani customers being quite active in bookings, but at prices not higher than the low end of the range. Meanwhile, domestic producers of rebar have adjusted their prices upwards by PKR 3,000/mt (around $17-18/mt), aiming to pass on higher input costs.
- Import scrap offers in Bangladesh have risen significantly during the current week. Though Bangladeshi customers have not resumed bookings yet, preferring to evaluate the current developments, some of them are expected to book material in the coming week. While offers for bulk HMS I/II 80:20 scrap have increased by $35/mt during the week, to $570/mt CFR, containerized HMS I/II 80:20 scrap has been offered at $535/mt CFR, up $20/mt over the past week. Shredded scrap of European origin has added $5-10/mt over the past week to $560-565/mt CFR. The shortage of containers has remained the most challenging issue in doing business.
- Ex-Japan scrap prices have continued to strengthen, with the results of the Kanto monthly export tender only confirming the bullish mood among market participants concerning future developments. On balance, the tender in October was closed at over $60/mt higher compared to the previous month. While the price in the Kanto tender corresponds to JPY 54,213/mt ($480/mt) FOB, the SteelOrbis reference price this week was settled at JPY 52,000-54,000/mt ($455-473/mt) FOB, adding JPY 500/mt to the high end of the range over the past week due to the higher bids from Vietnamese customers.
Amid the COVID-19 crisis, the global market for Steel Scrap estimated at 574.5 Million Metric Tons in the year 2020, is projected to reach a revised size of 748.2 Million Metric Tons by 2026, growing at a CAGR of 4.5% over the analysis period. Obsolete, one of the segments analyzed in the report, is projected to grow at a 5.3% CAGR to reach 438.5 Million Metric Tons by the end of the analysis period. After a thorough analysis of the business implications of the pandemic and its induced economic crisis, growth in the Prompt segment is readjusted to a revised 3.4% CAGR for the next 7-year period. This segment currently accounts for a 26.3% share of the global Steel Scrap market. Obsolete scrap, or old scrap, represents the largest segment. Obsolete scrap consists of any redundant steel product with no usage life and is generally collected when the products made from steel reach their end of life. Prompt scrap is obtained when steel products are being manufactured. This type of scrap consists of punchings, turnings, borings and cuttings.
The Steel Scrap market in the U.S. is estimated at 52.3 Million Metric Tons in the year 2021. The country currently accounts for a 8.78% share in the global market. China, the world's second largest economy, is forecast to reach an estimated market size of 301.7 Million Metric Tons in the year 2026 trailing a CAGR of 5.7% through the analysis period. Among the other noteworthy geographic markets are Japan and Canada, each forecast to grow at 2.7% and 3.2% respectively over the analysis period. Within Europe, Germany is forecast to grow at approximately 2.6% CAGR while Rest of European market (as defined in the study) will reach 319.3 Million Metric Tons by the end of the analysis period.
Scrap will continue to grow in demand for many years to come and the move by LG to acquire a company that controls 15% of the US scrap market was a very brilliant one.
In summation, the catalysts as I see them:
  1. China - further output cuts, less steel in global market.
  2. China - increase in steel prices on the back of rebound in domestic demand and global supply chain needs.
  3. Increased cost of coke and coal.
  4. Carbon surcharges.
  5. Inflation
  6. Weakening of USD.
  7. Infrastructure
  8. Increasing long term demand for scrap.
I know many of you guys want new PT's.
I'm not giving any new updates on those, as I'm still very comfortable with the PT's I last put out.
Of course, the timing is the million dollar question.
I still think $CLF and $MT are the two stocks that have the most meat left on the bones, but I could also see 40-50% upside on $STLD, $NUE and $X from their current prices.
I believe that Q4 will be even healthier than Q3 and believe you will hear it in the guidance for all other manufacturers like you heard it in the guidance from $STLD today.
I still believe we are in the early stages of the 5th Commodity SuperCycle of all time:

I believe we are going to get to that red dot WAYYYYYYYYYYY before 2045.
Thanks for following me and valuing my opinion.
I promise you all not to be a stranger and I'll be around a bit more over earnings than I have been.
Hang in there!
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