(Hey everyone, this is the SECOND half of the Finale, you can find the first half here)

The Dollar Endgame

True monetary collapses are hard to grasp for many in the West who have not experienced extreme inflation. The ever increasing money printing seems strange, alien even. Why must money supply grow exponentially? Why did the Reichsbank continue printing even as hyperinflation took hold in Germany?
What is not understood well are the hidden feedback loops that dwell under the surface of the economy.
The Dragon of Inflation, once awoken, is near impossible to tame.
It all begins with a country walking itself into a situation of severe fiscal mismanagement- this could be the Roman Empire of the early 300s, or the German Empire in 1916, or America in the 1980s- 2020s.
The State, fighting a war, promoting a welfare state, or combating an economic downturn, loads itself with debt burdens too heavy for it to bear.
This might even create temporary illusions of wealth and prosperity. The immediate results are not felt. But the trap is laid.
Over the next few years and even decades, the debt continues to grow. The government programs and spending set up during an emergency are almost impossible to shut down. Politicians are distracted with the issues of the day, and concerns about a borrowing binge take the backseat.
The debt loads begin to reach a critical mass, almost always just as a political upheaval unfolds. Murphy’s Law comes into effect.
Next comes a crisis.
This could be Visigoth tribesmen attacking the border posts in the North, making incursions into Roman lands. Or it could be the Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo, kicking off a chain of events causing the onset of World War 1.
Or it could be a global pandemic, shutting down 30% of GDP overnight.
Politicians respond as they always had- mass government mobilization, both in the real and financial sense, to address the issue. Promising that their solutions will remedy the problem, a push begins for massive government spending to “solve” economic woes.
They go to fundraise debt to finance the Treasury. But this time is different.
Very few, if any, investors bid. Now they are faced with a difficult question- how to make up for the deficit between the Treasury’s income and its massive projected expenditure. Who’s going to buy the bonds?
With few or no legitimate buyers for their debt, they turn to their only other option- the printing press. Whatever the manner, new money is created and enters the supply.
This time is different. Due to the flood of new liquidity entering the system, widespread inflation occurs. Confounded, the politicians blame everyone and everything BUT the printing as the cause.
Bonds begin to sell off, which causes interest rates to rise. With rates suppressed so low for so long, trillions of dollars of leverage has built up in the system.
No one wants to hold fixed income instruments yielding 1% when inflation is soaring above 8%. It's a guaranteed losing trade. As more and more investors run for the exits in the bond markets, liquidity dries up and volatility spikes.
The MOVE index, a measure of bond market volatility, begins climbing to levels not seen since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
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MOVE Index
Sovereign bond market liquidity begins to evaporate. Weak links in the system, overleveraged several times on government debt, such as the UK’s pension funds, begin to implode.
The banks and Treasury itself will not survive true deflation- in the US, Yellen is already getting so antsy that she just asked major banks if Treasury should buy back their bonds to “ensure liquidity”!
As yields rise, government borrowing costs spike and their ability to roll their debt becomes extremely impaired. Overleveraged speculators in housing, equity and bond markets begin to liquidate positions and a full blown deleveraging event emerges.
True deflation in a macro environment as indebted as ours would mean rates soaring well above 15-20%, and a collapse in money market funds, equities, bonds, and worst of all, a certain Treasury default as federal tax receipts decline and deficits rise.
A run on the banks would ensue. Without the Fed printing, the major banks, (which have a 0% capital reserve requirement since 3/15/20), would quickly be drained. Insolvency is not the issue here- liquidity is; and without cash reserves a freezing of the interbank credit and repo markets would quickly ensue.
For those who don’t think this is possible, Tim Geitner, NY Fed President during the 2008 Crisis, stated that in the aftermath of Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy, we were “We were a few days away from the ATMs not working” (start video at 46:07).
As inflation rips higher, the $24T Treasury market, and the $15.5T Corporate bond markets selloff hard. Soon they enter freefall as forced liquidations wipe leverage out of the system. Similar to 2008, credit markets begin to freeze up. Thousands of “zombie corporations”, firms held together only with razor thin margins and huge amounts of near zero yielding debt, begin to default. One study by a Deutsche analyst puts the figure at 25% of companies in the S&P 500.
The Central Banks respond to the crisis as they always have- coming to the rescue with the money printer, like the Bank of England did when they restarted QE, or how the Bank of Japan began “emergency bond buying operations”.
But this time is massive. They have to print more than ever before as the ENTIRE DEBT BASED FINANCIAL SYSTEM UNWINDS.
QE Infinity begins. Trillions of Treasuries, MBS, Corporate bonds, and Bond ETFs are bought up. The only manner in which to prevent the bubble from imploding is by overwhelming the system with freshly printed cash. Everything is no-limit bid.
The tsunami of new money floods into the system and a face ripping rally begins in every major asset class. This is the beginning of the melt-up phase.
The Federal Reserve, within a few months, goes from owning 30% of the Treasury market, to 70% or more. The Bank of Japan is already at 70% ownership of certain JGB issuances, and some bonds haven’t traded for a record number of days in an active market!
The Central Banks EAT the bond market. The “Lender of Last Resort” becomes “The Lender of Only Resort”.
Another step towards hyperinflation. The Dragon crawls out of his lair.
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QE Process
Now the majority or even entirety of the new bond issuances from the Treasury are bought with printed money. Money supply must increase in tandem with federal deficits, fueling further inflation as more new money floods into the system.
The Fed’s liquidity hose is now directly plugged into the veins of the real economy. The heroin of free money now flows in ever increasing amounts towards Main Street.
The same face-ripping rise seen in equities in 2020 and 2021 is now mirrored in the markets for goods and services.
Prices for Food, gas, housing, computers, cars, healthcare, travel, and more explode higher. This sets off several feedback loops- the first of which is the wage-price spiral. As the prices of everything rise, real disposable income falls.
Massive strikes and turnover ensues. Workers refuse to labor for wages that are not keeping up with their expenses. After much consternation, firms are forced to raise wages or see large scale work stoppages.
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Wage-Price Spiral
These higher wages now mean the firm has higher costs, and thus must charge higher prices for goods. This repeats ad infinitum.
The next feedback loop is monetary velocity- the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy.
The faster the dollar turns over, the more items it can bid for- and thus the more prices rise. Money velocity increasing is a key feature of a currency beginning to inflate away. In nations experiencing hyperinflation like Venezuela, where money velocity was purported to be over 7,000 annually- or more than 20 times a DAY.
As prices rise steadily, people begin to increase their inflation expectations, which leads to them going out and preemptively buying before the goods become even more expensive. This leads to hoarding and shortages as select items get bought out quickly, and whatever is left is marked up even more. ANOTHER feedback loop.
Inflation now soars to 25%. Treasury deficits increase further as the government is forced to spend more to hire and retain workers, and government subsidies are demanded by every corner of the populace as a way to alleviate the price pressures.
The government budget increases. Any hope of worker’s pensions or banks buying the new debt is dashed as the interest rates remain well below the rate of inflation, and real wages continue to fall. They thus must borrow more as the entire system unwinds.
The Hyperinflationary Feedback loop kicks in, with exponentially increasing borrowing from the Treasury matched by new money supply as the Printer whirrs away.
The Dragon begins his fiery assault.
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Hyperinflationary Feedback Loop
As the dollar devalues, other central banks continue printing furiously. This phenomenon of being trapped in a debt spiral is not unique to the United States- virtually every major economy is drowning under excessive credit loads, as the average G7 debt load is 135% of GDP.
As the central banks print at different speeds, massive dislocations begin to occur in currency markets. Nations who print faster and with greater debt monetization fall faster than others, but all fiats fall together in unison in real terms.
Global trade becomes extremely difficult. Trade invoices, which usually can take several weeks or even months to settle as the item is shipped across the world, go haywire as currencies move 20% or more against each other in short timeframes. Hedging becomes extremely difficult, as vol premiums rise and illiquidity is widespread.
Amidst the chaos, a group of nations comes together to decide to use a new monetary media- this could be the Special Drawing Right (SDR), a neutral global reserve currency created by the IMF.
It could be a new commodity based money, similar to the old US Dollar pegged to Gold.
Or it could be a peer-to-peer decentralized cryptocurrency with a hard supply limit and secure payment channels.
Whatever the case- it doesn't really matter. The dollar will begin to lose dominance as the World Reserve Currency as the new one arises.
As the old system begins to die, ironically the dollar soars higher on foreign exchange- as there is a $20T global short position on the USD, in the form of leveraged loans, sovereign debt, corporate bonds, and interbank repo agreements.
All this dollar debt creates dollar DEMAND, and if the US is not printing fast enough or importing enough to push dollars out to satisfy demand, banks and institutions will rush to the Forex market to dump their local currency in exchange for dollars.
This drives DXY up even higher, and then forces more firms to dump local currency to cover dollar debt as the debt becomes more expensive, in a vicious feedback loop. This is called the Dollar Milkshake Theory, posited by Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital.
The global Eurodollar Market IS leverage- and as all leverage works, it must be fed with new dollars or risk bankrupting those who owe the debt. The fundamental issue is that this time, it is not banks, hedge funds, or even insurance giants- this is entire countries like Argentina, Vietnam, and Indonesia.
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The Dollar Milkshake
If the Fed does not print to satisfy the demand needed for this Eurodollar market, the Dollar Milkshake will suck almost all global liquidity and capital into the United States, which is a net importer and has largely lost it’s manufacturing base- meanwhile dozens of developing countries and manufacturing firms will go bankrupt and be liquidated, causing a collapse in global supply chains not seen since the Second World War.
This would force inflation to rip above 50% as supply of goods collapses.
Worse yet, what will the Fed do? ALL their choices now make the situation worse.
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The Fed's Triple Dilemma
Many pundits will retort- “Even if we have to print the entire unfunded liability of the US, $160T, that’s 8 times current M2 Money Supply. So we’d see 700% inflation over two years and then it would be over!”
This is a grave misunderstanding of the problem; as the Fed expands money supply and finances Treasury spending, inflation rips higher, forcing the AMOUNT THE TREASURY BORROWS, AND THUS THE AMOUNT THE FED PRINTS in the next fiscal quarter to INCREASE. Thus a 100% increase in money supply can cause a 150% increase in inflation, and on again, and again, ad infinitum.
M2 Money Supply increased 41% since March 5th, 2020 and we saw an 18% realized increase in inflation (not CPI, which is manipulated) and a 58% increase in SPY (at the top). This was with the majority of printed money really going into the financial markets, and only stimulus checks and transfer payments flowing into the real economy.
Now Federal Deficits are increasing, and in the next easing cycle, the Fed will be buying the majority of Treasury bonds.
The next $10T they print, therefore, could cause additional inflation requiring another $15T of printing. This could cause another $25T in money printing; this cycle continues forever, like Weimar Germany discovered.
The $200T or so they need to print can easily multiply into the quadrillions by the time we get there.
The Inflation Dragon consumes all in his path.
Federal Net Outlays are currently around 30% of GDP. Of course, the government has tax receipts that it could use to pay for services, but as prices roar higher, the real value of government tax revenue falls. At the end of the Weimar hyperinflation, tax receipts represented less than 1% of all government spending.
This means that without Treasury spending, literally a third of all economic output would cease.
The holders of dollar debt begin dumping them en masse for assets with real world utility and value- even simple things such as food and gas.
People will be forced to ask themselves- what matters more; the amount of Apple shares they hold or their ability to buy food next month? The option will be clear- and as they sell, massive flows of money will move out of the financial economy and into the real.
This begins the final cascade of money into the marketplace which causes the prices of everything to soar higher. The demand for money grows even larger as prices spike, which causes more Treasury spending, which must be financed by new borrowing, which is printed by the Fed. The final doom loop begins, and money supply explodes exponentially.
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German Hyperinflation
Monetary velocity rips higher and eventually pushes inflation into the thousands of percent. Goods begin being re-priced by the day, and then by the hour, as the value of the currency becomes meaningless.
A new money, most likely a cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin, gains widespread adoption- becoming the preferred method and eventually the default payment mechanism. The State continues attempting to force the citizens to use their currency- but by now all trust in the money has broken down. The only thing that works is force, but even the police, military and legal system by now have completely lost confidence.
The Simulacrum breaks down as the masses begin to realize that the entire financial system, and the very currency that underpins it is a lie- an illusion, propped up via complex derivatives, unsustainable debt loads, and easy money financed by the Central Banks.
Similar to Weimar Germany, confidence in the currency finally collapses as the public awakens to a long forgotten truth-
There is no supply cap on fiat currency.
Conclusion:
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QE Infinity
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When asked in 1982 what was the one word that could be used to define the Dollar, Fed Chairman Paul Volcker responded with one word-
“Confidence.”
All fiat money systems, unmoored from the tethers of hard money, are now adrift in a sea of illusion, of make-believe. The only fundamental props to support it are the trust and network effects of the participants.
These are powerful forces, no doubt- and have made it so no fiat currency dies without severe pain inflicted on the masses, most of which are uneducated about the true nature of economics and money.
But the Ships of State have wandered into a maelstrom from which there is no return. Currently, total worldwide debt stands at a gargantuan $300 Trillion, equivalent to 356% of global GDP.
This means that even at low interest rates, interest expense will be higher than GDP- we can never grow our way out of this trap, as many economists hope.
Fiat systems demand ever increasing debt, and ever increasing money printing, until the illusion breaks and the flood of liquidity is finally released into the real economy. Financial and Real economies merge in one final crescendo that dooms the currency to die, as all fiats must.
Day by day, hour by hour, the interest accrues.
The Debt grows larger.
And the Dollar Endgame Approaches.
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Nothing on this Post constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any security, portfolio of securities, investment product, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. From reading my Post I cannot assess anything about your personal circumstances, your finances, or your goals and objectives, all of which are unique to you, so any opinions or information contained on this Post are just that – an opinion or information. Please consult a financial professional if you seek advice.
*If you would like to learn more, check out my recommended reading list here. This is a dummy google account, so feel free to share with friends- none of my personal information is attached. You can also check out a Google docs version of my Endgame Series here.
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I cleared this message with the mods;
IF YOU WOULD LIKE to support me, you can do so my checking out the e-book version of the Dollar Endgame on my twitter profile: https://twitter.com/peruvian_bull/status/1597279560839868417
The paperback version is a work in progress. It's coming.
THERE IS NO PRESSURE TO DO SO. THIS IS NOT A MONEY GRAB- the entire series is FREE! The reddit posts start HERE: https://www.reddit.com/Superstonk/comments/o4vzau/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/
and there is a Google Doc version of the ENTIRE SERIES here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1552Gu7F2cJV5Bgw93ZGgCONXeenPdjKBbhbUs6shg6s/edit?usp=sharing
Thank you ALL, and POWER TO THE PLAYERS. GME FOREVER
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You can follow my Twitter at Peruvian Bull. This is my only account, and I will not ask for financial or personal information. All others are scammers/impersonators.

I had made a prior post amount why you shouldn't buy the dip. https://www.reddit.com/CryptoCurrency/comments/wtbr4b/do_not_buy_the_dip/ .
This is a copy of my substack article here:https://sierre.substack.com/p/why-you-probably-shouldnt-buy-the?sd=pf
Comments on the last post were a real ride and a mixed bag. Thanks for those who read it and gave responses to the actual content and didn't react solely on their own feelings and sentiment. To the rest, well here we go again I guess. Many people are right in their responses that you shouldn't take a random post's advice as gold. I'm just laying out facts and the mostly likely possibility based on economic conventions, to my knowledge/POV anyway I suppose. Anyways here we go.
Europe

• In July, the Euro fell to parity with the US dollar. As of recently the Euro has fallen below the value of the US dollars. For reference, the 1 Euro = 1.2 USD in July 2021. If you know anything about forex you'd know a change in value of over 15% is absolutely MASSIVE, and fairly rare if we're speaking of developed nations economies. This is in addition to the 1% change in a month or so since July 2022. The Euro is at it's lowest value in 20 years.
• The Bank of England has officially predicted a recession. Citibank predicts UK inflation at 18% next year, a near half-century high, with inflation currently at 10%, a four decade high. This morning, OFGEM, the UK energy regulator, increase energy price cap by an unbelievable 80% with further room for revisions that may imply further increases.
• Germany has lost between 30-40% of their energy supply since the war's start due to cut-off from Russia. A complete cut-off could have Germany lose 225 billion dollars over the next two years. Further, droughts and high temperatures have resulted in water levels on the Rhine, a key transport route, dropping below the critical 40cm mark, limiting capacity, and causing delays and cancellations. Germany is expected to impose a gas levy on households.
• Italy has seen inflation ~8% a 36 year high. Prices surged for processed food (from 8.1% to 9.5%) and transportation services (from 7.2% to 8.9%). It sees growth forecasts slashed by almost 3%.
• Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania see inflation at 23.2%, 21.3% and 20.9% respectively.
• The trend continues across Europe. The euro-zone in general sees annual inflation is expected to be 8.9% in July 2022, up from 8.6% in June. Energy prices increase a whopping 39.7% since last year, the highest on record. The EU accounts for about 15% of world GDP. Hard times in Europe means no funds left to trade.

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US Job Cuts

• It is actually simpler for me to link here. It gives a LONG list of just some of the largest US companies laying-off tens of thousands of workers over the past few months. The list of company lay-offs grows by the day. That's a lot less income to spare to trade for a lot off people. More importantly, it's just a sign that company profits are drying up so there's no little money or appetite for risky crypto plays.
• Unemployment rising (and it's persistence) is a hallmark of a recession.

Car Repossessions

• Car repossessions are surging and Lisa Beilfuss Popeo, who covers the economy for Barron's, have reported a doubling of repossessions among prime borrowers. To be clear, prime borrowers are individuals/firms who the banks are generally certain would repay their loans and the first approved for loans. They are the last people you would ever want to hear not being able to replay loans because if they can't repay their loans, it's likely that very few others can either.

US Individuals and Households

• The last reading of US Household Net Worth is actually negative meaning households owe money(or assets) more than they own.
• The Graph below shows the Household Net Worth vs S&P 500 with a visual correlation. For those not convinced, the correlation value from 2013- 2022 is 0.414, a moderate correlation for economic data. However, if we use the post-Covid values to determine the lasting effects of the COVID economic fallout and response to date we get a correlation value of 0.643, a strong correlation value for economic data.
• From the graph, the most recent Household Net Worth Reading is from Q1 2022, while the most recent S&P value is from Q2 2022(hence the cut-off). This implies that we expect the already negative household net worth to fall quite a bit further, likely pushing us into a recession.
• I have already highlighted the 60% rise in consumer debt from May to June in my last post.
• With further regard to the falling S&P, crypto as of recent(July-Aug) has a 0.8-0.9 correlation with the S&P, an extremely high correlation.

China

• China accounts for about 18% of global GDP and is the world's largest exporter. It is fair to say that, as the world's largest export, any slowdown economic activity in China would mean an slowdown in the global economy.
• China continues their zero-Covid strategy as many millions have endured lockdowns to varying degrees in large such as Beijing, Xinjiang and Shanghai. While lockdowns have been officially lifted in many cities, even more like parts of Tibet and Hainan see fresh lockdowns. This is along with restrictions and controls across the entire state.
• Real estate drives about 25-30% of China’s economic activity, and housing represents 70% of household wealth. Almost 30% of all bank loans are property-related. 21 major developers have defaulted on their debts in the last year.
• China's real estate market stand at 2.4 trillion dollars. Housing sales volume fell between 30-40% year-on-year since the beginning of 2022 across 100 major Chinese cities. Consultancy firm Capital Economics estimates that about 30 million newly developed properties remained unsold last year, while about 100 million more were likely to have been bought but not occupied. Home prices dropped for the 11th straight month in July. Many Chinese have chosen to not to pay their mortgages which ANZ Research estimates to affect about $222 billion of loans.
• Some property developers have gone so far as to accept watermelons, wheat and onions as payment for property. The government has been encouraging citizens to purchase more property. One government official has gone as far as to tell citizens to two purchase as much as four homes. The panic is obvious.
• 6 billion dollars have been stolen from the customer's deposit due to fraud by Henan Xincaifu Group Investment Holding Co. and citizens are in uproar amid chaos in the banking system.
• China is in a terrible position that feeds upon itself. Property developers are see falling sales and are going bankrupt/defaulting, so banks see less profit and/or take losses on non-performing loans, while lockdowns further limit appetite for healthy business loan while increasing distressed/risky loans, all the while everyone's value fall as real estate crashes.
• China has actually cut interest rates, twice in two weeks, in an effort to stimulate growth while most other countries raise rates to fight inflation. The Chinese remninbi or yuan has declined, falling as much as 7% in 3 months earlier this year. It recently fell to a 2 year low.
• China is also facing climate change problems as their rivers dry up such as the Yangtze, the world’s third largest river, seeing water levels in it's main trunk fall below the average of the last 5 years with entire sections and dozens of tributaries disappearing. This has then further created shortages of energy from hydropower. Companies such as Toyota, Foxconn and Tesla are among companies who have been forced to temporarily suspend plant operations.

Food Prices

• Per national geographic, the world diet is 45% comprised of grains. Of this, 19% is rice, 18% is wheat and 5% corn(3% other cereals). Between Ukraine and Russia, the amount of percentage of world grain supply is 14% of corn, 30% of barley and 27% of wheat(Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty 2022).
• Now by various studies, lack of fertilizer can reduce crop yields by 30-60%. Corn in particular is sensitive to nitrogen(fertilizer) levels.
• Per CNBC, again, Russia and Ukraine together make up 28% of the fertilizer exports. Further, Russia accounts for 11% of the world’s urea, and 48% of the ammonium nitrate, key ingredients in making fertilizer.
• We have seen effective prices for fertilizers climb ~3X - 5X times(~300-500%) where they were before the pandemic. They are up ~1.4- ~3X(140%-~300%) since the start of 2022.

Prices of inputs to fertilizer

• You may have notice the prices of at least two of the inputs fall and seem to be leveling off. This might be a good thing, kinda except for the fact that these prices are still sky high and have simply just stopped increasing. But keep this in mind.

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Grain Prices

• (I found out how to make the graph less ugly)
• These three commodities largely account for around 50% of the world's diet. They have increased 30-40% pre-pandemic. They increased a few percentage points since the beginning of 2022. But the point is the prices are still high.
• Again we see prices decrease after a massive surge earlier this year. This should be good.
• The problem is that food prices(among almost everything else) falls during a true economic recession. It's either we have sky high prices with inflation or low(er) prices but the value of all your possessions and net worth fall. Same difference. That by the way is the "secret" to the Fed fighting inflation. They can't. We either have high and rising prices and struggle to keep up or stable prices but we fall into a recession and our asset value falls amid mass lay-offs.
• EDIT: Just a few minutes ago, Fed chain Powell warned that inflation fight will "bring some pain". How ironic life is sometimes. Expect high rates, and you know what that means for markets.

Russia accounted for around 3% of global GDP. Sanctions have written off much of that value from global trade. I'm not sure I need to speak at length about the collapse of Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Bangladesh has now approached the IMF for a bailout. Cuba has been suffering daily blackouts and fuel shortages and has devalued the Cuban peso by 500%. Chile also is on the brink of a recession. I could go on. I have highlighted a number of countries in this article but of course, we also know that high inflation is a issue in virtually every country worldwide while also having to struggling with huge floods, high temperatures and droughts. These are global issues.
[Warning - the following paragraph is for economic nerds]
We are also seeing the beginning of what is called contango in oil futures(WTI) which basically implies a falling demand for oil immediate oil access which typically precipitates recession in addition to treasury bill shortages as the Fed reduces its purchases, and eurodollar and treasury curves being heavily inverted. I may do a deep-dive on bond and futures curves another another time as it's a pretty complex topic.
Believe me when I say I left out quite a lot of data that could be seen as questionable even if they were particularly damning. I made sure to include statements like "at a three decade high" to indicate that citizens are not accustomed to coping with such high prices and likely that wages would not be able to keep pace with inflation. I realised only near the end of writing this I maybe should have added sources but, c'mon this in Reddit. But seriously, pretty much all this data is very easily verifiable within a single google search. So sure, you should take some random dude-on-Reddit's advice but the fact is the economic fundamentals look pretty terrible. I don't wanna be that doom and gloom guy but simply believing markets will pump won't make them pump.
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Protect your pockets. That's all from me. Take care out there.