US Dollar-Russischer Rubel USD/RUB Wechselkurs ...

Inflation, Gauge Symmetry, and the big Guh.

Inflation, Gauge Symmetry, and the big Guh.
Sup retards, back at it with the DD/macro.
scroll to the rain man stuff after the crayons if you don't care about the why or how.
June 19 $250 SPY puts
May 20 $4 USO puts
SPY under 150 by January next year.

So I was going about my business, trying to not $ROPE myself as my sweet tendies I made during the waterfall of March have evaporated, however, I heard that the fed was adding another $2.3T in monopoly money to the bankers pile specifically to help facilitate these loan programs being rolled out.
In short, they are backing these dumb-ass, zero recourse, federally mandated, loans with printing press money.
But cumguzzler OP, your title is about inflation and guage simp--try, why are you talking about the fed #ban.
Well, when you print money it is an inflationary action in theory. Let me explain.


What is inflation? Inflation is the sustained increase in the price level in goods and services. Inflation is derived from a general price index, and in the US, from the consumer price index. Knowing that inflation is an outcome, not a set policy is very important. Inflation is a measurement after the fact, much like your technical astrology indicators. (**ps, use order flow in your TA you wizards**)
HOWEVER, the actual act of buying bundles of these loans does not directly impact inflation.
Now what is Gauge symmetry? Gauge symmetry is a function of math and theoretical physics that can be applied to finance models. What a gauge is, is a measurement. Gauge symmetry is when the underlying variable of something changes, however, we do not observe that variable change.
A great example of this is if you and a friend are moving, and your friend is holding a box of tendies. The box is a cube, equal on all sides. If you turn away for a moment and she rotates the cube 90 degrees while you are not looking, and you look back - you would have no idea the cube was rotated. There was a very real change in the position of the cube in relation to space-time. Your friend acted on it. But you didn't measure it, in fact it would be impossible for you to determine if the box was changed at all if you weren't observing it. That movement of the box where you didn't observe it, is called gauge transformation and happens literally more then JPow fucks my mom in quantum physics. The object observably exactly the same even though it is not physically the same. The act of it existing as an observably the same box is gauge symmetry - it is by observation symmetrical.
Why this is important, is that fiat money doesn't have any absolute meaning. The value of $1 is arbitrary. furthermore, Inflation is a Guage symmetry. Inflation has no real impact on the real value of the underlying goods and services, but rather serves as a metric to measure the shift of value across a timeline.
When JPow starts pluggin' your mom along with all these balance sheets, there is a gauge symmetry event happening. The money he is printing is entering the system (gauge transformation), this isn't an issue if all pricing against the USD get shifted equally, however, the market is not accounting for this money because we don't have real-time data on what is being applied where, we only get a slow drip in terms of weekly and monthly reports. WE HAVE OUR EYES CLOSED. This is a gauge symmetry event.
When this happens in real terms, the market becomes dislocated from its real value price. Well how do we know there is a dislocation?
"YoU JuSt SaId tHe UnDeRlYiNg VaLuE iZ AbStRaCkKt HuRr QE aNd MaRkEtS Iz ComPlEx ReAd A TeXtBuK AbOuT FrAcTiOnAl ReSErVe BanKiNg YoU NeRd." - **anyone rationalizing the bull run**
We can look at Forex you fish.
USD lives in a bubble. The Yen is in a bubble, the RMB is in a bubble, and we exchange with each other. the Jap central bank has little effect on the CPI index (cost of goods and services) of the US. If the Yen prints a gazillion dollars, the USD is not effected EXCEPT in its exchange rate. YEN:USD would see a sizeable differential the more Yen is printed and vise-versa.
So NOW instead of JPow getting away with plowing your girlfriend, we can catch the bitch.
Instead of looking at the gauge transformation at face value and then giving up because it is symmetrical output, we can look and see if this gauge symmetry carries over to the foreign exchange market. Well guess what happens when you look at the value of the USD against foreign currencies.
Consistent uncertainty during the fed operations. Meaning the market of banks that partake in FX swaps don't know where to spot the USD. Generally a very very bad thing.
Value of the USD to Euro 2017-2020, notice the slow decline, then the chaos at the end
Above is the value of the USD to Euro, notice the sloping decline. The dollar has been growing weaker since 2017. At the end you see our present issues, lets #ENHANCE
USD to Euro, January 2020 to Present
When you see those spikes, those are days in between Fed action. The value of the US goes up when the fed doesn't print because people aren't spending. Non-spending is a deflationary event and has a direct impact on the CPI. However, each drop when you line up the dates, was a date of Fed spending.
Lets look outside of the Eurozone.

This is the RMB to USD. Yes China manipulates, but look at the end of the graph
China manipulated rates early in 2018 however you can see the steady incline upward towards the of 2018. More specifically, lets look at it since December.
RMB value against USD, January to Now
You Can see the Chinese RMB has been gaining steam since December, even with Chinese production falling off a cliff all through this pandemic.

What this rain man level autism means for the economy.

Looking across the board at Forex we can see the USD having a schizo panic attack jumping up and down like me at a mathematics lecture.
But what does all this gauge BDSM and shit have to do with the markets? Well it shows 1 of 3 things are occuring.
  1. The fed is printing money to offset deflationary pressures of the economy being fuk for the past month, and therefore all this printing is offset by the loss of liquidity throughout the system and we are all retared. (SECRET: THIS IS WHAT ALL THE INSTITUTIONS THINK IS HAPPENING AND WE WILL ALL BE FINE.)
  2. The deflationary event is overplayed, and JPow just is nailing his coffin together. This would result in long term hyperinflation similiar to the Weimar republic. The only hedge against this is to load up on strong currency that do not manipulate and have enough distance from US markets that they can have some safety (ironically the Ruble is the safest currency. Low link to the USD and not influenced by China, and on discount rn)
  3. The gauge transformation is actually not as severe as they are blurting out, the fed does not pass go, does not actually print 10 Trillion dollars, and this was all a marketing ploy to not get Trump involved and prop markets. In this case, the real deflationary event is real, the USD red rockets harder then my cock and we end up market-wise at a very high asset price in relation to real value. This one is most dangerous because it increases the real value of debt and has mass dislocation between real value and market cap. You took debt at a fixed interest rate and a fixed principal, this would cause the biggest GUH in history when all of a sudden you are $100 million in debt and your revenue was $50 million a year ago, but now is only $25 million. That $100 million in debt is still $100 million and now you have a credit crisis because past values of money were inflated. This spirals into a large scale solvency crisis of any company utilizing current growth methodology (levering up to your tits in debt)
In only 1 of these 3 scenarios do we see any sort of "good" outcome? That would be the offset of deflationary pressures.
It is very important to understand that inflation is only a measurement, and itself does not denote value of real goods and services.

Option 1 of a print fiesta that works (something similar to 1981-82) seems possible. A similar environment and reaction occured in the early 80s when the government brute-forced a bull run using these same offset theorems but in that situation, Volker at the fed had interest rates at 21.5% and had 20% to come down to stimulate the inflationary reaction.
Long term this would just lever up more debt and expanded the real wealth gap over time because we kicked the can down the road another 15 years. If that happens again socioeconomically I don't see capitalism surviving (yeah Im on my high horse get over it). This is the option that many fiscal policymakers and talking heads abide by and the reason why the markets are green. However, it is really just kicking it down the road and expanding real wealth inequality. You think Bernie Sanders is bad, wait until homes cost $3million dollars in Kentucky and AOC Jr comes around.

If we get option 2, we see hyperinflation and we turn into Zimbabwe, which is great, I've always wanted to see Africa. Long term we could push interest rate back to 1980 Volker levels and slowly revalue the US against real value commodities already pegged to the USD like oil. This would be a short term shock but because of international reliance on the USD system, we could slowly de-lever this inflation over 2-3 years and be back to normal capacity although the markets would blow their O-ring. Recession yes, but no long term depression.

If we get option 3, the worst long term option in my opinion, basically any company with any revolver line drawn down when that hits is going to go under, private equity won't touch it with a 20ft stick because cashflows couldn't possibly handle the debt on the end of the lever, and we see mass long term unemployment. The only way out of the spiral of option three is inflationary pressure from the fed+government, but because we are already so far down the rabbit hole at the current moment there's no fucking way we could print another 10 trillion. USD treasuries couldn't handle the guh and we would essentially be functionally forced into a long term (7-10 year) depression because nothing anyone could do would delever the value of the dollar. This would result in the long term collapse of the United States as a world power and would render us like Russia in 1991.

Thank you for coming to my ted talk.
submitted by TaxationIsTh3ft to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Ruble hits 2 years low. Now Russian Ruble has same value as Indian Rupee. For one Ruble you can get one Rupee

Ruble hits 2 years low. Now Russian Ruble has same value as Indian Rupee. For one Ruble you can get one Rupee submitted by Jotvingisasarukas to europe [link] [comments]

PSA: You can pre-order Horizons for $35

* establish your account in frontier store, put your address there
* set currency to RU, language to EN (this is to ensure no localization issues might happen later on, as you can contact their support to transfer your region if required)
* order the game for 2249 Rubles, pay with paypal (to avoid forex transaction fees)
* I have paid $35.62, that's almost -45% from the $60 (taking into account loyalty discount and forex playing)
EDIT: Show's over, FDEV hiked the RUB prices to be in line with USD/EUGBP. To all the annoyed people, welcome to a global economy. Blame FDev for not region locking the RUB form of payment to RUS residency.
submitted by HectorShadow to EliteDangerous [link] [comments]

Pt. II: Countdown to 80 RUB/USD...90?...100?

Looks like yesterday I didn't give myself enough leeway with my title because I don't think anybody expected what happened yesterday to happen. There was a double digit decline in the RUB's value and a huge emergency rate hike late at night by the RCB.
The latest numbers from the Cenbank are in and they just spent Over $2 billion propping up the ruble
If you want to follow:spin0 has linked us these nice sites with good charts:
If you have another good site to monitor the situation (like zenrus, post in the comments! I'm going to try and make this post a little easier to follow too.
7:02am 75.1710 +9.5880 +14.6200%
8:06am 72.4535 +6.8705 +10.4800%
9:03am 72.9235 +7.3405 +11.1900%
11:34am 68.3180 +2.7350 +4.1700%
1:00pm 72.2495 + 6.6665 +10.1600%
2:47pm 67.5005 + 1.9175 +2.9200%
submitted by AntaresRho to UkrainianConflict [link] [comments]

It's ALTcointip's first cake day! Say something nice, and get a random tip from /u/im14 in return!

Today marks 1 year since I have come to existence. While I didn't start processing tips until a bit later, it's an important day for me - my cake day - nevertheless!
A lot has happened in a year. My codebase has improved (394 commits, 26 releases, and counting!). Lots of tips and karma has been redeemed. And - nearly 100 distinct tip bots have been launched on Reddit using my codebase (some quite short-lived...)! Some of my siblings are listed on /ALTcointip's sidebar, but it's impossible to catch them all!
So, have you seen me before? Perhaps given or received a tip? Got any cool new ideas or suggestions? Come say hi, don't be shy! I might tip you randomly!
I'd like to say big, big thanks to all the selfless tippers and users of ALTcointip who have donated their time, coins, and energy to make this project a success! Without you, I wouldn't have a purpose and couldn't be more proud of what we've achieved together.
And finally, here's some year-to-date stats for you!
Total tips (value): $ 5074.15
Total tips (count): 2706
Total registered users: 3848
Total tippers: 313
Total karma redeemed value: $ 262.70
Top 10 Tippers
from_user total_fiat fiat
im14[stats] $ 874.72 usd
jonnylatte[stats] $ 506.92 usd
lukasbradley[stats] $ 385.49 usd
skippydeluxe2468[stats] $ 359.78 usd
alienwalkerx[stats] $ 263.84 usd
omgnohedidnt[stats] $ 227.39 usd
altoidnerd[stats] $ 225.19 usd
cyrusis[stats] $ 213.34 usd
headzoo[stats] $ 151.82 usd
0nederfoo1[stats] $ 132.24 usd
Top 10 Tips
from_user to_user coin_val coin fiat_val fiat msg_link
jonnylatte[stats] - Ƥ 101 ppc $ 203.44 usd link
omgnohedidnt[stats] mattcmultimedia[stats] Ł 4.8861 ltc $ 174.24 usd link
cyrusis[stats] megachu[stats] Ł 6 ltc $ 130.22 usd link
lukasbradley[stats] im14[stats] Ł 35.559 ltc $ 100.00 usd link
lukasbradley[stats] seansoutpost[stats] Ł 2.2043 ltc $ 100.00 usd link
im14[stats] mungojelly[stats] Ɲ 100 nmc $ 82.00 usd link
skippydeluxe2468[stats] evermore7[stats] Ȥ 2500 zet $ 51.01 usd link
jonnylatte[stats] seansoutpost[stats] Ƥ 128.63 ppc $ 50.00 usd link
altoidnerd[stats] im14[stats] Ƥ 8.1336 ppc $ 50.00 usd link
oi_mista[stats] seansoutpost[stats] Ł 1 ltc $ 47.85 usd link
submitted by ALTcointip to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Non-USD pairs on BTC-E are Not Returning to Market Value

Non-USD pairs at BTC-E are not returning to their fair market value.
While in terms of USD, BTCe quotes are 3$ lower compared to the general market ($466 compared to $469 BitStamp)
in terms of Euros, Pounds or Rubles prices are over 5% higher and have been for days.
BTC/EUR BTCE 377 Kraken 367
Plus if you look at the exchange rates on the BTCe's website, the EUUSD is quoted at 1.2330, actual exchange rate is currently at 1.2930. The Pound is quoted at 1.5093, actual forex exchange rate is 1.6220.
Why are all NON-USD currencies trading so cheap on BTC-E? In the past year I've noticed these small arbitrage opportunities before but they used to be gone in less then 1 day. This has been going on for 4 days now.
  1. How long has this been going on? I only noticed the discrepancies 4 days ago.
  2. What is the reason for this?
submitted by Am_I_A_Deer to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Where can I trade usd/rub pair?

Im new to forex trading in the traditiinal sense. Ive been going to my local exchange and buying physical paper rubles. But that is inconvenient and expensive. What forex platform or exchange can I use to buy rubles online for usd?
submitted by btc_merchants to Forex [link] [comments]

Russia, Ukraine, and Forex Trading

Adapted from my blog. Original post May 2, 2014.
One of the biggest advantages of trading forex is that global political events often turn themselves into excellent market opportunities. Take, for instance, the turmoil in Ukraine. As the instability in that region grows, and capital flows out of Russia seeking safer havens, such opportunities are on the horizon. If you’re not familiar with what has been happening there, here’s a brief rundown of the past few months.
Putin Outplays the West
February 22nd- Ukranian President Viktor Yanyukovich is removed from office and flees the country.
March 21st- Following weeks of protests for secession, Russia annexes the ethnically Russian Ukranian region of Crimea. The US immediately sanctions several prominent Russian politicians and business leaders.
April 4th(ish)- Russia masses 40,000 troops on Ukraine’s Eastern border.
April 25th- Russia raises the ruble’s interest rate to 7.5%.
May 2nd- Ukrainian army forces clash with pro-Russian separatists in the Eastern cities of Odessa and Slovyansk.
What Happens Next?
Amid all the sabre-rattling and mindless media coverage, one can discern a pattern to Russia’s behavior in Ukraine that has been used recently in other conflicts. In 2008, Russia invaded Georgia and all but annexed the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossettia. Putin then employed a similar strategy of fostering political unrest before invading the region to ‘liberate’ ethnic Russian populations, and repeated the process in Crimea. It stands to reason he will do so again in Ukraine’s industrial, and Russian speaking east.
This is assuming Putin doesn’t fear the threat of economically damaging and sweeping sanctions from the West. After all, Russia’s largest exports – oil and natural gas – have willing buyers in India and China, if not Eastern Europe. Putin has been in power for 14 years in Russia – long enough to turn his gaze beyond domestic squabbling and toward a more global stage, and the short term pain these sanctions would cause may not be enough to deter his advance.
So Where Is the Trade?
There are two outcomes I see as likely. Both offer excellent trades in the near future.
1) Russia invades Ukraine, or continues to support pro-separatist rebels in the east. This prompts expansive Western sanctions on May 25th and the ruble continues its decline. Investors will flock to more stable, high-yielding currencies like the NZD and to a lesser extent the TRY (whose issues will pale in comparison to the ruble), providing extended carry-trade opportunities for speculators.
2) Russia somehow avoids Western sanctions and looks to attract foreign investment once more with the ruble’s tasty 7.5% interest rate. Short USD/RUB will become an attractive mid-term trade as the ruble bounces back from its long decline of early this year.
Either way, opportunity is on the horizon! We will certainly be keeping an eye on the events in Ukraine to determine where best to invest our capital, and will keep you updated on the blog and twitter as the situation unfolds.
Agree with my analysis? Disagree? Let's hear it, forex!
submitted by PoseidonFX to Forex [link] [comments]

Help: Finding free historical data for Russian Ruble to USD(or EUR) exchange rates

I've been on the hunt for historical data, closing prices for every day if possible, for the Russian Rubles to either USD or Euro. So far no luck, every site that shows potential has been charging or it's been insufficient data. If anyone know of a good forex database I would appreciate it a lot. I'm trying to find the data so that I can work out some covariances and trends, trying to spot hedges against a falling Ruble. Thanks in advance.
submitted by thtblkbatliqrice to Forex [link] [comments]

Questions about Ichimoku Clouds

I've been reading this week a lot about Ichimoku clouds. I am incredibly new to the Forex world, but I cannot seem to find anyone really using this outside of Japan.
From what I can tell at a quick glance is that it seems to capture a lot of the price movements. For example, in the USD/RUB charts you can see the moving averages cross about July 14th high above the cloud. It looks like if you bought in on the next price breakout on the 17th you would have caught the USD gain on the Ruble. I know the Ruble's fall is mostly due to oil prices and geopolitics right now, so I am also looking at GBP/USD at the beginning of this year. The averages cross in mid-February, catching the fall, and then releasing at the end of May before it recovers. Am I wrong in this, and, if so, how?
This is the reading I've been using
Two questions regarding Ichimoku clouds:
Thanks for the help!
submitted by drunk_journalist to investing [link] [comments]

3/3 The Rouble

I don't normally trade anything on the forex. I like to keep my cash in USD and just take profit in CAD when it spikes to 1.11 CAD to the dollar. I was up late last night and noticed the rouble is taking a huge hit due to the recent developments in Crimea and Ukraine.
Usually the media hypes up a situation more than it deserves, but the Russian market took a 7-8% hit, showing that there is real fear to the economic sanctions leveraged by the west.
I think that a bet against the ruble (USD.RUB) is a relatively safe one.
The current interest rate in Russia is at 7%, which was raised from 5.5%. This should have promoted a stronger currency but may have only slowed down inflation. This is a country that has gone bankrupt and defaulted on its debts.
Overall this situation is bringing down global markets, but I can only guess at the scope and spread of the overall damage and fear. The best I can do is keep doing what I am doing in equities and try to profit off of Russia.
submitted by Asiansupermarket to Pennystocktrading [link] [comments]

Exotic currency pair trading  USD/RUB - Planning and execution of trades 12.05.2020: USD/RUB trading range narrows; oil holds near $30 (Brent, USD/RUB) LIVE - Technical Analisys Forex & Goldspot vs U.S Dollar ( XAU USD) - Jakarta,June 18 Best Forex trades today with ongoing Trump, US and Iranian conflict - Forex Forecast - 8th Jan 2020 UBS on USD/RUB 19.05.2020: RUB set to hit 70 mark against USD (Brent, WTI, USD/RUB) 22.06.2020: RUB to stay trading in narrow range against USD (Brent, USD/RUB) How to Trade USDRUB (February 2018) - YouTube 12.03.2020: Pandemic fears push oil and RUB even lower (Brent, USD/RUB)

US Dollar / Russischer Rubel (USD/RUB) ▸ Aktueller Wechselkurs, Devisenkurs, Kurs Daten & Charts im Überblick Get latest market information about USD/RUB pair including USD RUB Live Rate, News, US Dollar and Russian Ruble Forecast and Analysis. Wechselkurs US Dollar-Russischer Rubel (USD/RUB) mit Realtime-Kurs, Chart, Forwards, Forum, News & Analysen sowie Währungsrechner. Erhalten Sie aktuelle Marktinfos zum USD/RUB, inklusive USD RUB Live-Kurs, Nachrichten, US Dollar und Russischer Rubel Prognosen und Analysen. USD/RUB: Aktueller US-Dollar - Russischer Rubel Kurs heute mit Chart, historischen Kursen und Nachrichten. Wechselkurs USD in RUB. Hier finden Sie die aktuellsten USD / RUB Forex Analysis für heute. bietet alle Arten der Analyse des Paares USD RUB ( US Dollar / russischer Rubel) auf täglicher Basis von den besten Brokern. View product details for the USD/RUB. is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826).

[index] [21679] [13422] [7054] [22915] [8269] [15770] [4163] [20993] [2978] [13037]

Exotic currency pair trading USD/RUB - Planning and execution of trades

Oil prices rose on Tuesday with Brent holding near 30 US dollars per barrel. The ruble is likely to stay in the current trading range even despite worsening background. The news about additional ... If USD/RUB approaches 70 mark, the next target can be found at 68.55 according to the technical analysis. As for today, analysts anticipate that the American currency will fall to 71.5 rubles. Inspired by the Chernobyl series this week I’ve decided to propose you an exotic currency pair, which includes the Russian Ruble. There are a few possibilities for some good entries and I am ... For more information, visit: In this video, we discuss our argument for a medium-term USDRUB buy on the weekly timeframe if buying ... LIVE - Technical Analisys Forex & Goldspot vs U.S Dollar ( XAU USD) Market Review Live Trading Technical Analisys Indicator Discusion All materials just for Educational purpose only NOT EASY TO ... Ruble strengthens for third day. Manik Narain, UBS. Todays Forex Forecast - Overview: As we continue to watch the tensions and conflict unfold between the US and Iran, we must also be even more cautious about how we place our trades. Today, the ruble has hit its 4-year low against the US dollar. The overall risk aversion amid escalating pandemic fears and crash in oil prices continues to weigh on the ruble. Besides, the volume ... The ruble manages to hold firm thanks to the positive dynamics in the oil market. While Brent is trading above 42 US dollars per barrel, the ruble can hold at comfortable levels even despite a ...