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 | So I figured I'd get the update straight from the source... submitted by Real_Eyezz to BBBY [link] [comments] (image for mobile post) https://imgur.com/a/WQ7LNDy https://preview.redd.it/q9k0evb5r3x91.jpg?width=479&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fc86cca6102807d0c816176173e6ccbf422a4314 (Phone update a bit below) 8/18/2022 SEC Form 4 Only that when I called, Kleinberg Kaplan answered. Wall Streets Best kept Secret I asked if RC Ventures was no longer associated with that number and I was told it was the wrong number. I entered the number I called in Google and got this. Cohen in the name? Kleinberg Kaplan Wolff & Cohen Same phone number. Turns out a founding member of the firm in the 70s was named Cohen. credit to u/OneSimpleOpinion for the find. Why is RC Ventures associated with this phone number? Maybe a cohencidence. Ok Well I used the wayback machine and it shows Kleinberg has had this number since 2016. Either they handle(d) some things for RC Ventures, or the SEC is late to update RC Ventures number. https://web.archive.org/web/20160212091201/https://www.kkwc.com/contact/ https://preview.redd.it/crn4ab0w0gu91.jpg?width=496&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=906d1cd398290a1c129b3df1d35ad7c3249fac29 Cohen's first 13d with Kleinberg Kaplan Wolff & Cohen (his earliest large Gamestop buys). Looks like the SEC website is late to update RC Ventures contact info, as Oslham's number is listed on his latest forms.(in contrast to SEC descriptors outside the filings. I assume RCV is through Oslham now, unless I find a current DE filing from RCV w/ Klienberg's number). The most interesting thing to me about this place is what I found they have in their 100 person office, which Cohen would know about from his dealings there). https://preview.redd.it/rde13frkqdu91.jpg?width=1064&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f94dcc14eba60e12c5d495bfa792312322b440dd 19 partners in private equity that could be a part of the deal? Cohen's letter mentioned "BBBY fulfills financial sponsors (plural) interests. If this was already too much and speculative for you , you won't enjoy the rest. You may have seen some Warren Icahn posts from Cohen's tweet Ryan Cohen by Day, Warren Icahn by night. There's an article with Icahn suggesting an "unlock" spin off (see unlock post) and of Icahn making a tender offer like Cohen might do with the bonds (Carl Icahn Can Cause a Government Investigation, Too I'm now titling my novel of M&A "The Board Meets at Midnight...." ). For the Warren Buffet angle, I found some things interesting with Kraft Heinz. Now the neighborhood of Kleinberg ,Kaplan, Wolff, and Cohen is a place called little Brazil. This was entertaining to me as I've been looking at the Kraft Heinz deal that Buffet did. He worked with Brazilian private equity (for the first time in his career) 3g capital for the deal to acquire Heinz. https://preview.redd.it/btg5rjfkrdu91.png?width=1860&format=png&auto=webp&s=447787453e5b2cb8794e34e594a8f652c408c551 Location of 3g to Kleinberg Kaplan Wolff and Cohen https://preview.redd.it/miiepw4cudu91.jpg?width=921&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9b2b0cfe7f92e84e8bc113584a04dd10faf61492 Not far. Of course who knows, just interesting to me (500 fifth ave to 600 third ave) About 2 blocks north and 4 blocks west. Is 3G capital involved in the deal? Back to Kraft Heinz. Later Kraft Heinz spun off Mondelez and focused on the international market. Fun fact (credit u/iamhighnlow Yang Xu is global treasurer and on executive committee at Kraft Heinz. She's also on the board of Gamestop since June 2021). On her linked he she noted at Kraft she " Expanded scope to include Strategy, M&A, VC") https://preview.redd.it/7g8td714rdu91.jpg?width=1785&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7c1809f2507eb3f91eb3f88e248456f0a96a4411 This color looked kind of familiar. Anyway, the bigger point is that they focused on the international market. If you see my L Catterton post, they wrote a paper about the baby market in China and how it's a HUGE opportunity. I believe Baby will go international with direct to consumer shipping with Dragonfly on board. They are ecommerce specialists who could help Bbby as well. Their team is stacked with people that worked at Wayfair, an online furniture company. Maybe expand to Brazil as well. It's having a lot of capital in flow. https://preview.redd.it/7etulort3eu91.png?width=868&format=png&auto=webp&s=575b5270eda7502b21e7b00f1107222cf54dd2f8 Catterton paper found by u/Movingday1 Focusing on the Chinese market for now China also increased their 2 child policy back to 3 child 150 billion dollar children's wear market.....(yeah, the Gmerica trademark includes clothing....). ----------------------------------------------------------------- Quick timeline recap timeline Patty Wu moves to Buy Buy Jan 2021 after being at Catterton funded Honest Company earlier in career as head of Baby division- she also worked at Mattel get toys into China with the focus on helping parents understand importance of play u/n3rdacalypso credit. Oct 6 2021 Catterton published article on huge China opportunity. Nov 2021 Cohen tweets I have a small wee wee ( baby talk, done in reverse on Twitter timeline) Jan 13 2022 (also a day of a big GME price increase in 2021 credit u/iamhighnlow ) Cohen starts buying BBBY shares. Feb 24, 2022 changes at Dragonfly board as they shuffle around, as often the case when a private company goes public. Seemed to increase their share count to 120 mill plus from previous 39.75 mil count Feb 28 Cohen buys all his BBBY calls over a few days March 6 Cohen letter to BBBY board. March 24, standstill agreement with BBBY ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now the funny thing with the share offering of 12 million shares is that BBBY said they could use it for acquisitions. Lol. Who would think they could with their debt? Well u/edwinbarnesc thinks they'll do something in particular that would allow it. Ill leave it to him to post. I think Dragonfly merges into subsidiary Buy Buy. Whatever type of merge or how they go about it, they don't really need to pay Dragonfly as it they would eventually spin off as part of the deal. Dragonfly has 6 total investors. And they are all the board members. Cohen, Cheng, Blake Day and company. They have total control, and they wouldn't mind being "acquired" by BBBY if it meant they could spin off soon after. Catterton can use 500 mil to go toward abl loan that u/quaeratioest says is needed before a merger or acquisition can happen. Meanwhile perhaps Cohen does do a tender offer to 2024 bondholders and clears up the debt there. Leaving them with a ton of debt released with no bond par due till 2034. That would help BBBY immensely. In response to the RC Ventures having no chance of changing their sic to 5700 of BBBY's, I'll give you this example of Icahn who had his holding company (like RC Ventures) with a SIC listed outside financial categories. Click on plus sign by company information. https://www.sec.gov/edgabrowse/?CIK=1034563 As I've noted ,the SEC may not even update their SICS but possibly once a year around June outside of reverse mergers for their website. Someone commented that they may even be years behind on the updates there. So maybe the SIC was indeed updated elsewhere like Delaware and Whalewisdom scraped it. Regardless of the SIC theory... u/BiggySmallzzz and I have been looking at ways BBBY could do a merger or acquisition. Microsoft acquired Linked in through a special sell side process before any public awareness occured, you can read about here. https://www.wallstreetprep.com/knowledge/sell-side-process Different sell side processes can happen where banks approach possible buyers and the bid processes happen outside the public eye. Some more private than others. Since BBBY is acquiring rather than selling Baby or BBBY in this first step to a spin off, shareholder votes wouldn't be required. You can look into it, and see the history in the 2019 letter from Olshan Frome. How they talked about an acquisition there they thought was a bad business deal that was basically an executive decision. So Buy buy acquires Dragonfly through the subsidiary that is Baby. Since Dragonfly is a private company with no shareholders outside the board and possibly members of the team, they don't even need to be part of a sell side process, and can just choose to go with BBBY (I believe). Even if it wasn't the case, we wouldn't have to know until the deal was done. In BBBY's case, this could be pertinent to offer BBBY to other bidders to do shareholders right in the case of the sale/spinoff or merger with another company. Afterwards it may or may not require an emergency meeting of BBBY shareholders like we saw with Twitter and Musk, depending on NY state, and BBBY bylaws, but most likely it would. Dragonfly and Baby merge and form a new company and new name, maybe even something as simple as Buy Buy international. Perhaps it would be a joint venture agreement as well if Gmerica, which has trademarks for clothing is part of the process? https://preview.redd.it/sbuywfr48eu91.jpg?width=423&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2ed7330d1e82b5c7d7b6564f99efefa809b3b312 GME next to Build Buck BunnY (BBBY) (pasted together) a well timed bus slightly hides full name and that they're next to each other in moving picture gif. credit to u/MapleCoconutBananas/ https://preview.redd.it/0r1cvgmnydu91.jpg?width=851&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e0c134352fe3cabe982d3498d8793d6a8fa3f5ee Brands as a rule use previous logos to form new ones. Kraft Heinz Red and blue turned to this Purple color for Mondelez. A Gmerica (GME) Red, combined with BBBY Blue, gets you the purple for the spinoff. And the nod to Buffett and his Heinz purchase to form Kraft Heinz, in what later became an international spin off Mondelez. https://preview.redd.it/dmxinil8zdu91.jpg?width=1748&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ce1620e5ab2c4468041d50736420cafa54b14b76 BBBY changed to the same CT Corp as Gamestop for the first time in company history. CT Corp works with 70% of fortune 500 companies. They are under an umbrella that has a multitude of services including assistance with legal compliance in mergers and aquistions among other things. https://www.wolterskluwer.com/en/solutions/ct-corporation(credit u/edwinbarnesc ) Seems the purple violet theme is strong in the latest Gmerica collection . Seems a new brand color is being released soon. Bed Bath instagram also had several posts in a row in this color late Aug. https://preview.redd.it/l5lpd2g72eu91.jpg?width=1536&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7b18660fe1f3bf5f9b819432de10623e461b6d15 5 different nft's all with purple or violet. The New York one has just a smidge of Purple in this fast moving shot behind the pizza delivery motorcyclist. Drop me some funny nfts if your inclined (not the real one) roaringk1tty.loopring.eth |
 | tl;dr Short-Term Doom, Long-Term Prosperity submitted by BigGayBearAteUrTendy to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] I will start with energy, because that is where the economy starts. Everything is energy. All production, all consumption. Debt is just a claim on future energy/resources, and is typically purchased on the expectation of repayment of principal/interest (money is just tokenized energy), based upon an expectation of real economic growth of the debt issuer (assuming interest rates are positive). When you live in a world where everyone has more energy to use and consume on an annualized basis, economies see real growth. The opposite also usually holds true, absent financialization tricks to mask the decline. So, where are we today? Conveniently BP has excellent data on this stuff going back to 1965, and keeps it here: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html You can download a spreadsheet there called “Statistical Review of World Energy – all data, 1965-2021.” It has a handy tab called “Primary Energy – Cons capita,” which tells you what the annual per capita consumption of energy is in gigajoules, broken out into various geographic groupings. Here is what that looks like for roughly the first decade of data: https://preview.redd.it/x1ktkb4w0jm91.png?width=1227&format=png&auto=webp&s=61b950b10e1cbcea873d19c403181ae0fa061f53 Notice how energy consumption per capita is trending upwards from 1965 to 1973? Those were pretty good times. America had cheap and abundant domestically produced conventional onshore crude oil, and a massive manufacturing base that thrived off of it in the glory days after WWII when we dominated pretty much every market that existed. Unfortunately, in 1973 this thing called an energy crisis happened, as our conventional production was going into decline, and Europe, Japan, and other economic competitors were back on their feet after WWII and seeking to increase their share of the economic pie (using energy). Note the consistent declines in global energy consumption per capita and OECD consumption per capita during 1974 and 1975. So, what did the S&P 500 do in 1973 when this energy crisis suddenly arrived on the market? https://preview.redd.it/pfhx27e01jm91.png?width=930&format=png&auto=webp&s=1408e4cdce1f14c650e20cf0929fa13d90efb585 From January ’73 to October ’74, the S&P 500 lost about half of its value. Business plans, debt, and earnings all ran into the hard wall of an energy crunch and reset market expectations as inflation driven by energy shortages reared its ugly head. The E on the P/E side of the equation changed suddenly, and anything based on TTM or pre-crunch estimates was total garbage. Around this same timeframe, some relevant events also happened. In 1971, Nixon took us off the gold standard and ended the monetary system (Bretton Woods) that had existed since WWII ended. Prior to that dollars could be exchanged for gold at a set rate, but some stagflation in 1971 made the whole system unstable and unworkable for America, so it had to go. By the time the energy crunch hit in 1973, the US knew it needed to do something to stabilize its supply of energy, its global reserve currency, and its access to real assets to fund future growth. So in July 1974, Nixon sends his new Treasury Secretary, former Salomon Brothers bond trader Bill Simon, to Saudi Arabia on a top secret mission. Bloomberg learned about it from a FOIA request decades later, and wrote a cool article about it: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-05-30/the-untold-story-behind-saudi-arabia-s-41-year-u-s-debt-secret Here’s the tl;dr on the article, from the article itself: “The basic framework was strikingly simple. The U.S. would buy oil from Saudi Arabia and provide the kingdom military aid and equipment. In return, the Saudis would plow billions of their petrodollar revenue back into Treasuries and finance America’s spending” That word petrodollar is also important. In early 1945 FDR entered into an alliance with Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia agreed to sell and price oil in dollars. Most other oil producing nations of the world quickly joined the club, and we liked this. If countries outside of the Soviet system needed energy to grow their economies, they needed reserves of dollars, and debt denominated in dollars. We will return to this topic later. So, we had obtained a fat stack of funding from the Saudis to dig our way out of this energy crisis thing. The process was pretty rocky, resulting in the 1970s, but eventually this nice man named Paul Volcker ratcheted interest rates high enough so that the stagflation could be beaten into submission, while around the same time enough capital had reached E&P companies to enable capex to flood the market with new cheap energy, turning boomtowns of the 1970s like Houston into ghost towns in the 1980s. Newly developed offshore fields in the Gulf of Mexico and North Sea pumped energy like it was going out of style, and the market had a really good time for about 20 years. Since all of that energy came online in the early 1980s, global consumption per capita has generally trended upwards every year until 2018. We kept finding new ways to economically pull oil and gas out of the ground (new fields, deepwater, fracking shale), and get it into the hands of consumers so they could use more of it to grow the economy. This lifted billions of people out of poverty, allowed the agricultural revolution to feed them with nitrogen fertilizers made from natural gas feedstock, and provided predictably priced (mostly) inputs for heavy industry. This was an all around great thing for business, and American Boomers as a group made a metric fuckton of money riding the wave during the entirety of their working lives. So, what does the most recent decade of BP per capita energy consumption data look like? https://preview.redd.it/ee84vir41jm91.png?width=1539&format=png&auto=webp&s=a8acb71d9654f5848e6a26295e66affddd8696ec Pretty much a plateau globally from 2011-16, small increase in 2016, top in 2018, and downwards trend since (with 2020 being a big down anomaly for obvious reasons). There’s variation around that whether you look at OECD, EU, Non-OECD, but the peak for all of them is 2018. People have less energy to work with today than they did four years ago. Unless more energy gets injected into the system, it is very hard to stimulate real growth, and financial instruments (like bonds) that track anticipated real growth reflect that with high prices and low (or even negative) interest rates. In a world where everything is growing, I want my loans to at least reflect the real rate of economic growth, otherwise I am losing money. Looked at bond yields over the past decade lately? They didn’t seem to be pricing in a lot of real growth at any duration. Why do you think that is? People can argue about the definition of peak oil all they want, but 2018 appears to be at least a localized peak when scaled to global population. The key to reversing this is producing enough energy at a reasonable price, so that people can start using more of it. That would reflect an economy that is growing in real terms. That takes lots of money. Which brings us to the next chapter of this story, a very brief overview of geopolitical stuff that happened from the fall of the Soviet Union to the recent start of World War III. The year is 1991, the Soviet Union falls and this country called Russia suddenly has a lot of available energy reserves that previously weren’t getting a lot of circulation outside of the walled-off Soviet Sphere. These abundant energy reserves were recognized immediately for what they could be: a giant engine of additional economic growth to fuel the 1990s and beyond. That’s what happened. A country in Europe called Germany had this bright idea to build out a massive heavy industrial and manufacturing base, fueled by cheap Russian natural gas, which could easily be pipelined in from the fields in western Russia and eastern Ukraine. The plan worked, and Germany became an economic powerhouse with a massive trade surplus. Germany did not control the energy it used, though, so its position was precarious. To make matters worse from an economic perspective, over time Germany decided it did not like cheap energy due to environmental concerns, and had this very intense political aversion to nuclear power (another cheap, energy-dense method of generating baseload electricity). So, Germany decided to get rid of its nuclear reactor fleet, reduce its number of coal powerplants, and replace them with natural gas power turbines for baseload electricity generation, supplemented by semi-reliable solar and wind power, which is not suitable for baseload generation. Eventually this brutal mafia boss named Putin takes over the country, and becomes President for Life of Russia’s energy reserves. He does not care for America, has actively sought to collapse us for decades, did not like the fact that he was forced to sell oil in dollars, and would do anything he thought he could get away with to make Russia strong vs. its competitors, especially America. Fast forward to his invasion of Ukraine earlier this year. The U.S./Eurozone/Allied response was to hit Putin and Russia with sanctions. Much like prioexisting sanctions on Iraqi or Iranian oil, these sanctions did nothing to actually keep his oil and gas off the market. Putin did not like the sanctions or Allied support for Ukrainians, so he decided to weaponize his most strategic resource: natural gas flows to Europe. Eventually we got to here, where Germany’s 30-year economic miracle died almost overnight: https://preview.redd.it/kx4ympc81jm91.jpg?width=2048&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9fc1c5da1f48225830d4b015bad4be77f41d1915 That is decades of GDP that just got wiped out, on top of all sorts of weird multi-sigma anomalies like $1.5 Trillion margin calls in European electricity futures markets. None of the stonks you own have priced in this reality. Not even remotely. Bonds have seen a ton of volatility (check the MOVE index), and it is really hard to find buyers for treasuries with this much uncertainty around future real economic growth prospects, while this thing called the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, and starting to sell lots of bonds into this market. There are billions upon billions of dollars of formerly productive assets sitting in Europe now, completely cut off from reasonably priced energy supplies that allow those assets to be economically competitive. Capitalism really does not like these sorts of inefficiencies, and is designed to fix them, so that costs of production can be as low as possible and competitive. It takes staggering amounts of resources and capital to just move production like that from where it is no longer competitive, to areas where it can be (like on the opposite side of the Atlantic, close to America’s and Canada’s abundant energy resources). Russia probably wouldn’t mind buying that stuff at firesale prices and building out a manufacturing economy of its own next to its own energy resources, but America really would not like that, and the existence of sanctions makes that maneuver pretty difficult. As far as America is concerned, we paid for all of that stuff through an investment called the Marshall Plan about 70 years ago, specifically so that Russia could not have it. And now we come to the Federal Reserve and the Petrodollar. The federal reserve has only two priorities: (1) full employment; and (2) price stability. Employment is currently close to all-time highs. Price stability is at a place not seen since the 1970s. As we have reached the edge of our petri dish during a supercycle of energy and economic growth, the fuel is dwindling, from both natural (depleting reserves) and unnatural (war) causes. The show simply cannot go on at these levels. We are constantly bumping up against the limits of energy, and it is creating chaos in the availability of reasonably priced energy, which affects commodities and food, which causes inflation, and which restricts real growth. The energy crunch is here. You can’t just print more dollars and create more energy instantaneously. Europe is about to try by printing Euros to provide subsidies for energy that it doesn’t produce, which isn’t priced in Euros, alongside price caps over the world’s most essential commodity, which it doesn’t control. The UK is getting in on this act, too. This will cause two things: (1) hyperinflation; and (2) energy shortages and rationing. https://preview.redd.it/e72wzpkc1jm91.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fc5252a13cee26d535ac3bb6a134969d2d0c27c6 Meanwhile, that Putin guy is now demanding payment in Rubles for his oil and gas. He wants valuable real assets (foreign currency, hard assets, technology transfers, whatever) for his stuff, just like America gets from the Petrodollar. He is also refusing to sell it to anyone who tries to cap the price of his stuff. This, more than the Ukraine invasion itself, has caused World War III. It is a direct attack on the supremacy of the Petrodollar, which America cannot abide. The Petrodollar is central to our national security strategy. Recently Saudi Arabia has entered the chat, and agreed to sell its oil to Europe and Asia at reduced rates (not fully priced in dollars). It is not clear to me at this point if this is a temporary relief valve to our allies to relieve forex pressures, or if the Saudis have allied with Putin. The fog of war is real, and events are unfolding in real time, but markets hate uncertainty. Turning back quickly to the hyperinflation issue, what will be the effect of the European countries printing not-dollars to subsidize energy they don’t produce or control in sufficient quantities to meet their needs? The hyperinflation will definitely affect citizens and some businesses quite harshly (Goldman Sachs says 20%+ in the UK, and a government spokesperson affirmed that this was a reasonable estimate). It will also have the effect of concentrating national wealth in a handful of energy production and distribution related industries that are vital to the national security of those countries. Enter the Federal Reserve and America’s greatest weapon (we actually use it, unlike our nuclear stockpile): interest rates and the Petrodollar. Used properly interest rates and the petrodollar become a many birds with one stone solution to a lot of nagging problems. One, with recent large pro-Putin protests in the Czech Republic, Germany, and other Eurozone countries facing staggering and bankrupting energy bills, there is a risk that these countries could leave Team America, and try to cut a deal with Putin. It would take a while to get past the sanctions, but where there’s political will there’s a way. This outcome is unacceptable to America and can never be permitted. As the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and sells its massive bond stockpile to combat inflation arising out of the energy crunch, much like it did in the 1970s, all sorts of second and third-order effects start happening, like sovereign debt crises. Countries keep reserves of dollars to buy energy, and as a result of regularly needing to transact in dollars, issue dollar-denominated debt. As interest rates in the US rise and bonds are sold, the global supply of dollars decreases. It is harder to get dollars, and foreign currencies dependent upon a stable or growing supply of dollars depreciate. They need to use more of their own currency to get the same amount of dollars that they used to. Much like the energy situation, a supply/demand imbalance arises. Also, quite a lot of the record high levels of corporate debt around the world are priced in dollars. That debt was also issued predicated upon growth assumptions that probably did not include an energy crisis, World War III, and stagflation. As you might imagine, this can cause a lot of problems. Why then, do you ask, would America keep raising rates and selling bonds when markets are screaming “hey guys, big energy crisis over here, maybe turn on the liquidity a bit more”? Well, the amount of liquidity it would take to patch the gaping hole in German GDP is beyond anything we can reasonably do. That would lead to hyperinflation in America, which can never be allowed. The only thing that truly threatens the accumulated wealth of a nation (which the Federal Reserve protects in America) is hyperinflation. It killed the Weimar Republic, and it will kill what we currently recognize as the European economy. The wealthy and wealth of this country can survive market crashes, but not hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is an economic weapon of mass destruction, and you just can’t predict the outcome with any reasonable certainty (other than real bad). Also, we are kinda tapped on liquidity after the Covid money fountain, and finding ourselves at the end of a business/debt cycle while we bump up against the chaotic limits of available energy. So, what happens when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and sells bonds to continue tightening liquidity into this mess? Something in the global economy pops, starting in Europe (remember that $1.5 Trillion margin call in electricity futures). Hyperinflation destroys their economies, and they need a bailout/reset. In return for the bailout, we can give them the dollars they desperately want (we can create them at will). In return we only ask for all of their critical, national-security adjacent energy assets, which American capital can then operate for them starting from Europe’s new, lower baseline of reset economic growth. Some of the plant and equipment (natural gas turbines, very nice), along with intellectual property, can also be used to develop a more robust manufacturing economy here in America, close to comparatively cheap and abundant supplies of energy. We have done this with our allies before. In March of 1941, before America entered WWII, we sent the UK about 40 mothballed, decrepit destroyers from storage, and all we asked for in return was postwar dissolution of the British Empire and control over the global monetary system. It was a really amazing deal for America. We have profited immensely. The other part of the puzzle is the staggering amounts of capital that will be needed to properly invest in energy and manufacturing infrastructure in America over the next decade. We basically have to onshore Germany, and replicate their trade balance that just vanished, plus some if we want actual growth. That is just a crazy amount of money, but we have to do it. The problem is that a huge chunk of our economy’s money is tied up in the stonks you retards have been buying hand over fist at a time when bond yields were screaming “NO REAL GROWTH.” Reversing this trend means inversing you. Your stonks gotta be crushed so that we can reset our growth baseline back to something reasonable, providing a multi-year runway of growth that will not bump up against energy limitations and make everything chaotic again. Once that happens, the Fed can turn the money spigot back on and the high interest rates will ensure that capital is allocated efficiently to the sectors where it will be most productive, like energy and manufacturing. In the short to medium term this is going to be a rather volatile and unpleasant process, if you are not aware of what needs to happen. The old world of globalization is over. The heavy industry and production will be relocated here on our fortress continent, where we can keep our investment safe from bad actors like Russia in an increasingly dangerous world. The pivot is not coming until the reset happens. If you love America, sell your stonks and wait for the crash (or gamble on the timing of it like a degenerate with puts or UVXY, which I am doing), then go long as balls American treasuries, energy, manufacturing, and short dollars so the rest of the world can buy all the stuff we are about to make so we can all prosper. The Fed is on our side. You can make money in any market as long as you are flexible. In the meantime I will conclude with a few fun bearporn centerfolds that I collected from around the internet: https://preview.redd.it/yxbr956s2jm91.jpg?width=2048&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cf976633a7498824a426680451c0039b476cabf0 https://preview.redd.it/p7oi813t2jm91.png?width=951&format=png&auto=webp&s=f84a28473396b9ce103b1d50fe1634ba001cd238 https://preview.redd.it/yxdxyo6u2jm91.jpg?width=1074&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1ebc896da3842649374b72ce046d87a7cb94f701 |
 | submitted by nautikl to pcmasterrace [link] [comments] |
 | This is a hypothetical and I'm not saying it plays out this way. But at least some pieces seem imminent. I'll clean up wording after I post, let me know of any hard to read areas I may have missed. submitted by Real_Eyezz to BBBY [link] [comments] Edit: u/lowblowguy says you couldn't borrow shares to profit off a price spike. You could use margarine \sic]) to profit off a price spike though. Updated. I originally wrote this to post anonymously on Superstonk but what the hell. I'll share it here. I'll leave the censorship as towel stock in. (image for mobile browsing) https://imgur.com/a/9hlr69L https://preview.redd.it/tu9m4pito3x91.jpg?width=1071&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7ecddbdf80eec451a2f774c58b577cee1dcc333b In one scenario GME would issue shares to towel holders 1 for 1 once BBBY increases share issuance to 104 million, or BBBY holders get a cash option under another scenario. News of baby acquisition causes towel to rise to price to GME (around dollar level Cohen sold at) and causes the "meme" basket to run. Dragonfly, the board Cohen Blake and Cheng are on, move to managing Baby, at least in part, with their teams ecom expertise. Their experience in quality brand acquisition (of over 25 brands) could later allow them to expand this subsidiary to the "Mall" experiences others have speculated about. Offering a quality alternative to Amazon. I think this can start with Baby and Dragonfly added to GME. Towel had a 12 mil share offering just completed. If they do one more 12 mil offering bringing them to 104 million shares, they also set up a share perfect 2 for 1 reverse triangular merger with Icahn Enterprises after using the up to 20% cash option involved in those. This I theorize would occur AFTER the GME /cash goes to towel holders and GME and/or Cohen acquires Baby and causes the basket to run. Current towel share count 92,362,695 after 12 mil share offering completed. Former CFO Arnal seemed to emphasis 12 mil shares provocatively on the towel call in Aug. Was it a plan to issue 12 mil shares twice? in two separate offerings? Infinite truth says follow the white rabbit (possibly Ghost writer for RC). The rabbit's clock was stuck on 12 in the official Carol tale. Alice tells him he's right at least twice a day.... credit to u/MapleCoconutBananas/ for Build Buck catch https://preview.redd.it/5zmajtlmqxw91.png?width=886&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9b777402046e7b0dc4bc27cf02bd804ab25a459 To get to 104 mill towel shares with 150 mil dollar offering from 92,362,695, you'd need an additional 11,637,305 shares. That would be an average of 12.88 per share. 150 mil was also RC's gross into BBBY shown on his 144 form filed Aug 17 as well as the amount GME offered IMX if they "progressed well". Now there is unlock language all over towel calls and material which is indicative of a M&A or sale of the Baby. Even Patty Wu's president brand role of the Babe is to "unlock " value, literarily in her job title. They say they are progressing toward unlocking this value toward the end of the year, and ceo Gove reiterated this on her promotion to permanent CEO late Oct. Jan 3 is 9 months from Cohen's ultrasound tweet. March 10th is Patty Wu's second vest unlock of shares at 9 month. And Cohen's "I got my 8th booster and now 2 inches taller" would line up with March 10th if baby was born on Nov 10. (Even though babies are technically 10 months old at birth ,9 months is commonly associated with full term) (Cdc schedule 4 to 6 month mark is when the 8th booster occur at the 6 month mark. Babies can grow up to an inch a month. 2 inch growth aligning with Wu’s (Baby president) share unlock at her 9 month vest, and babies 6 month anniversary. Hence, the 69 tweets). Apparently, Cohen's real life baby may be born around Nov 10 as well. Perhaps Jan 3rd is something too, like when shares would actually be distributed, lining up with futures expiration cycle theory and the month GME sneezed. New year may make things easier for accounting purposes as well. Towel focused part of deal There is 322.76 million shares of Icahn enterprise, ticker IEP. Icahn owns over 80% of shares. Icahn adds shares of towel over a 10 day period (max delay in reporting over a 5% stake) before announcement from Cohen's offer for Baby. Icahn gain a greater stake ( up to 19.09%, max previously agreed for affiliates) . He may already have a bit under the 5 percent reporting requirement (about 4 million) picked up around Oct 25th (Good Will short hunting post), or over a longer stretch. It's announced a cash tender offer or share exchange will be proposed to GME shareholders. Worst case, Dragonfly reverse mergers and goes public as a separate company with a tender offer around $20 a share to BBBY holders, or towel holders get a share of GME. Either way, Boom. Icahn then offers the 2 to 1 option (to integrate with his West Point branding currently found in towel stores) after cash or GME distribution. And enjoys squeezing the shorts again like he did with Herbalife. https://i.redd.it/fbpfn7uhj3x91.gif 2 to 1 IEP to BBBY exchange with a 20% cash option in this scenario. Icahn still owns controlling stake of his company with this deal, at 25% (and will receive back about 80 million shares on deal completion from his BBBY holdings, bringing him back up to 34% ownership in IEP while also receiving a stake in GME or cashback from his accumulation of towel up to 19.09% Reverse triangular merger maths paragraph.... ( 80% of shares or 258.208 with 20% as cash option from 258 is 206.5664 shares needed. Icahn owns 277. (206 from 277 is about 74.57% - close, ha). They're also sitting on 6 billion dollars I hear as well. 206.5664/ 2 towels= 103.2832 = need about another 11.58 mil share offering from towel (as mentioned above). Bond stuff paragraph..... (Now there's a stipulation in the bond prices right around the 12 dollar level as far as conversions going from bonds to shares in their new offering (decision due by Nov 15 for bond holders - Another cohencidence, Cohen's form 144 filing has a 90 day deadline after filing that arrives on Nov 15 the day the bond yah or nay is due from bondholders -(even though he sold Aug 16 and Aug 17 it's interesting). I haven't taken a look at it closely but I think it need to stay below or around that level for about a month or so for conversions to happen). There’s also the possibility of a third party approaching and offering a tender offer for all the bonds). Ichan resulting shares maths paragraph...(Comes to 19.85 mil shares of towel which will later covert back into 39.7 shares of IEP. So, in effect Icahn will really only be diluting his stake in IEP (From 206.56 leaving behind 71 mil shares or so, and regaining 80 million shares of IEP at deal close ). Or about 110 million shares versus his previous 277 million share stake (coming to a new 34.29 % ownership of IEP). 19.85 mil shares of towel before acquisition and GME distribution nets him 19.85 mil share of GME or cashback, lessening the sting of decrease in ownership of IEP. Towel holders have an emergency meeting similar to Twitters this year to approve share swap. This occurs while giving towel holders insane value for their shares (Basically 2015 levels when towel was at 173.18 mil shares outstanding and marketcap was a 27x from current). It's announced mid day, so towel shares trade up to around 12.88 where towel unloads a boatload with their 150 mil offering, and then shortly thereafter rises to the price of GME (in anticipation of towel holders receiving a share of GME). This could effect the basket leading to a runaway on its own. BBBY has the right to issue shares from treasury at any time so they don't have to get the amount perfect. Lets just say towel shares are now valued at GME shares, that's 25 a share potentially overnight towel could be trading at, or around 30, where Cohen sold. Seems like that would liquidate a lot of the dumb stormtroopers of the investment galaxy. But the best part isn't done yet. $54 a share of IEP current trading price x 2 = 108.00 a share of towel worth of IEP, you can sell or keep your shares. Plus the Gme or cash distribution around $20- $25, brings a $127- $133 a share value minimum. Sound absurd? In 2015 BBBY was trading at a high of around 76 a share with 173.18 million shares. 104 million shares, That's a 49.917 % difference. $76 to $133 (decreased share count here) is a 54.54% percent difference. Net 6 percent difference total account for share count and price. I need help with math at times, but that seems a plausible scenario all in all. Especially with other valuations having gone up so much with all the money printing. GME focused part of deal First it’s important if you’re not aware Cohen described wanting baby to be “the ultimate destination for Baby in his letter to the board of towel. He used the same terminology before being added to the chair of Gamestop, and used the same terminology of Ultimate Destination when describing Chewy. The plan: 1 GME share or cash distributed to each share of towel holders (near future 104 million total) in exchange for baby (which they'll add to a subsidiary of GameStop, and give GME shareholders baby shares. This could be in the form of a share launched on FTX marketplace. If they did it as an nft (which IMX specializes in, that could be problematic to shorts according to others who have posted as each nft has a unique serial and all transactions can be transparent). This also points to the Cohen going dark on Twitter, a delisting of sorts for part of towel's baby. "Delisting" is known as going dark, and can involve being relisted elsewhere like China (GME hidden secrets.txt nft, upper right of skull, that code brings an SEC filling of an NFT company that did just that and relisted to China. credit to u/chemfreak for BGPY7 lead GME issues more shares for the acquisition (assuming they don't have shares in the treasury at the moment, or have maxed out their 1 billion share issuance approval from the splividend, in which case an acquisition may not need a shareholder vote). The 500 million Catterton loan, and the Dragonfly board could put up their own funds as an alternative. Along with a 20% ipo to the public that would help return some liquid equity. This would allow the move to be made quick and really catch shorts by surprise. I believe Dragonfly could do a reverse merger in this scenario taking this private company public. A different way to IPO. 20% may also be offered to the broader market before shares are distributed to GME holders if vote passes. Gmerica will start with branding on the baby clothes (which their trademark is good for and was ready to use late Aug), and the ultimate destination for babies could launch an international direct to consumer emphasis, along with expanding GME's offerings from age zero and up through their current child toy option offerings. While also continuing to expand to clothing and take advantage of Babies agreements and infrastructure. Of course this would be a large shift from GME as a monolithic gaming based company, but adding a subsidiarity would be the first step in a larger move if they were ever to pivot. Baby is a profitable business run under Cohen could inject more cash into GME in the short and long term. Wu spent time at Mattel making inroads to China there and emphasized the importance of play whereas currently Chinese parents on the whole, emphasize book study to a degree of spending over 40k a year on average. credit: u/n3rdacalypso u/movingday1 The government sees this as a problem since these parents are spending so much here instead of having more children. The government even reversed their 2 child policy and have it set now at 3. Anyway, to add to this theory Dragonfly got 500 mil from Catterton for M&A and Catterton literally wrote the whitepaper on the baby opportunities in China. 150 billion dollar child clothing market and general direct to consumer opportunities within China and abroad. More tinfoil - Cohen’s violet then red heart . A Buffet company used this dark purple color scheme when they spun off the parent company and refocused on the international market. Is that baby's new color? The heart was also used in the Chewy logo, perhaps the heart will make a return with Baby. https://preview.redd.it/9eqx3qllxyw91.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=400f416be3c5552f7cb7132db5d8b69feb94be92 Thanks u/edwinbarnesc and u/iamhighnlow for talking some ideas out with me. |
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