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TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details.

This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.

I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose.

This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem.

I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.

- I'm using the stop entry version - so I wait for the price to trade beyond the confirmation candle(in the direction of my trade) before entering. I don't have any data to support this decision, but I've always preferred this method over retracement-limit entries. Maybe I just like the feeling of a higher winrate even though there can be greater R:R using a limit entry. Variety is the spice of life.
- I put my stop loss right at the opposite edge of the confirmation candle. NOT at the edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. I'll get into this more below - not enough trades are saved to justify the wider stops. (Wider stop means less $ per pip won, assuming you still only risk 1%).
- All my profit/loss statistics are based on a 1% risk per trade. Because 1 is real easy to multiply.
- There are definitely some questionable trades in here, but I tried to make it as mechanical as possible for evaluation purposes. They do fit the definitions of the system, which is why I included them. You could probably improve the winrate by being more discretionary about your trades by looking at support/resistance or other techniques.
- I didn't use MBB much for either entering trades, or as support/resistance indicators. Again, trying to be pretty mechanical here just for data collection purposes. Plus, we all make bad trading decisions now and then, so let's call it even.
- As stated in the title, this is for H1 only. These results may very well not play out for other time frames - who knows, it may not even work on H1 starting this Monday. Forex is an unpredictable place.
- I collected data to show efficacy of taking profit at three different levels: -61.8%, -100% and -161.8% fib levels described in the system using the passive trade management method(set it and forget it). I'll have more below about moving up stops and taking off portions of a position.

- Total Trades: 241
- Raw Winrates:
- TP at -61.8%: 177 out of 241:
**73.44%** - TP at -100%: 156 out of 241:
**64.73%** - TP at -161.8%: 121 out of 241:
**50.20%**

- TP at -61.8%: 177 out of 241:
- Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
- TP at -61.8%:
**5.22%** - TP at -100%:
**23.55%** - TP at -161.8%:
**29.14%**

- TP at -61.8%:

EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.

Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way).

However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to

You can get your profits all the way up to

Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.

On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):

- 7pm-4am: Fewer setups, but winrate high.
- 5am-6am: Lots of setups, but but winrate low.
- 12pm-3pm Medium number of setups, but winrate low.

That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.

Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability.

One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)?

Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results

- Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%
- Winrate:
**46.4%** - Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
**5.36%**

- Winrate:
- Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%
- Winrate:
**65.97%** - Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
**-1.01%**(yes, a net loss)

- Winrate:

Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:

- Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%
- Winrate(breakeven doesn't count as a win):
**46.4%** - Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
**17.97%**

- Winrate(breakeven doesn't count as a win):
- Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%
- Winrate(breakeven doesn't count as a win):
**65.97%** - Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
**11.60%**

- Winrate(breakeven doesn't count as a win):

I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall.

The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.

Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL.

Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.

Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system.

This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here).

Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses.

Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels).

Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant.

One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak.

- Total Trades: 75
- Raw Winrates:
- TP at -61.8%:
**84.00%** - TP at -100%:
**73.33%** - TP at -161.8%:
**60.00%** - Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%:
**53.33%** - Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%:
**53.33%**(yes, oddly the exact same winrate. but different trades/profits)

- TP at -61.8%:
- Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
- TP at -61.8%:
**18.13%** - TP at -100%:
**26.20%** - TP at -161.8%:
**34.01%** - Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%:
**19.20%** - Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%:
**17.29%**

- TP at -61.8%:

I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system.

This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions.

There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated.

I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful.

Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.

- "System Details" I described above.
- TP at -161.8%
- Static SL at opposite side of confirmation candle - I won't move stops up to breakeven.
- Trade only 7am-11am and 4pm-11pm signals.
- Nothing where spread is more than 25% of trade width.

- Winrate:
**58.19%** - Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
**47.43%**

- ATR is only slightly elevated in this date range from historical levels, so this should fairly closely represent reality even after the COVID volatility leaves the scalpers sad and alone.
- The sample size is much too small for anything really meaningful when you slice by hour or pair. I wasn't particularly looking to test a specific pair here - just the system overall as if you were going to trade it on all pairs with a reasonable spread.

I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.

- I'm on the East Coast in the US, so the timestamps are Eastern time.
- Time stamp is from the confirmation candle, not the indecision candle. So 7am would mean the indecision candle was 6:00-6:59 and the confirmation candle is 7:00-7:59 and you'd put in your order at 8:00.
- I found a couple AM/PM typos as I was reviewing the data, so let me know if a trade doesn't make sense and I'll correct it.

**Pair**- duh**Date/Time**- Eastern time, confirmation candle as stated above**Win to -61.8%?**- whether the trade made it to the -61.8% TP level before it hit the original SL.**Win to -100%?**- whether the trade made it to the -100% TP level before it hit the original SL.**Win to -161.8%?**- whether the trade made it to the -161.8% TP level before it hit the original SL.**Retracement level between -61.8% and -100%**- how deep the price retraced after hitting -61.8%, but before hitting -100%. Be careful to look for the negative signs, it's easy to mix them up. Using the fib% levels defined in ParallaxFX's original thread. A plain hyphen "-" means it did not retrace, but rather went straight through -61.8% to -100%. Positive 100 means it hit the original SL.**Retracement level between -100% and -161.8%**- how deep the price retraced after hitting -100%, but before hitting -161.8%. Be careful to look for the negative signs, it's easy to mix them up. Using the fib% levels defined in ParallaxFX's original thread. A plain hyphen "-" means it did not retrace, but rather went straight through -100% to -161.8%. Positive 100 means it hit the original SL.**Trade Width(Pips)**- the size of the confirmation candle, and thus the "width" of your trade on which to determine position size, draw fib levels, etc.**Loser saved by 2 candle stop?**- for all losing trades, whether or not the 2-candle stop loss would have saved the trade and how far it ended up getting if so. "No" means it didn't save it, N/A means it wasn't a losing trade so it's not relevant.**Spread(ThinkorSwim)**- these are typical spreads for these pairs on ToS.**Spread % of Width**- How big is the spread compared to the trade width? Not used in any calculations, but interesting nonetheless.**True Risk(Trade Width + Spread)**- I set my SL at the opposite side of the confirmation candle knowing that I'm actually exposing myself to slightly more risk because of the spread(stop order = market order when submitted, so you pay the spread). So this tells you how many pips you are actually risking despite the Trade Width. I prefer this over setting the stop inside from the edge of the candle because some pairs have a wide spread that would mess with the system overall. But also many, many of these trades retraced very nearly to the edge of the confirmation candle, before ending up nicely profitable. If you keep your risk per trade at 1%, you're talking a true risk of, at most, 1.25% (in worst-case scenarios with the spread being 25% of the trade width as I am going with above).**Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -61.8%**- not going to go into huge detail, see the spreadsheet for calculations if you want. But, in a nutshell, if the trade was a win to 61.8%, it returns a positive # based on 61.8% of the trade width, minus the spread. Otherwise, it returns the True Risk as a negative. Both normalized to the 1% risk you started with.**Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -100%**- same as the last, but 100% of Trade Width.**Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -161.8%**- same as the last, but 161.8% of Trade Width.**Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -100%, and move SL to breakeven at 61.8%**- uses the retracement level columns to calculate profit/loss the same as the last few columns, but assuming you moved SL to 0% fib level after price hit -61.8%. Then full TP at 100%.**Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread take off half of position at -61.8%, move SL to breakeven, TP 100%**- uses the retracement level columns to calculate profit/loss the same as the last few columns, but assuming you took of half the position and moved SL to 0% fib level after price hit -61.8%. Then TP the remaining half at 100%.**Overall Growth(-161.8% TP, 1% Risk)**- pretty straightforward. Assuming you risked 1% on each trade, what the overall growth level would be chronologically(spreadsheet is sorted by date).

- AUD/CAD
- AUD/CHF
- AUD/JPY
- AUD/NZD
- AUD/USD
- CAD/CHF
- CAD/JPY
- CHF/JPY
- EUAUD
- EUCAD
- EUCHF
- EUGBP
- EUJPY
- EUNZD
- EUUSD
- GBP/AUD
- GBP/CAD
- GBP/CHF
- GBP/JPY
- GBP/NZD
- GBP/USD
- NZD/CAD
- NZD/CHF
- NZD/JPY
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
- USD/CHF
- USD/JPY

- Date range:
**6/11-7/3** - Winrate:
**58.19%** - Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
**47.43%**

A quick note is that TD's paper trade system fills at the mid price for both stop and limit orders, so I had to subtract the spread from the raw trade values to get the true profit/loss amount for each trade.

I'm heading out of town next week, then after that it'll be time to take this sucker live!

- 86 Trades
- Date range:
**7/9-7/30** - Winrate:
**52.32%** - Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
**20.73%**- Starting Balance:
**$5,000** - Ending Balance:
**$6,036.51**

- Starting Balance:

- Date range:

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