|submitted by crytoloover to coinmarketbag [link] [comments]|
First and foremost I would like to thank u/Naughty_Funkle_1992 & u/089jonas for their posts listed below:submitted by travis_b13 to Superstonk [link] [comments]
I decided to dive into the data that was listed in the lawsuit/comments, and boy of boy. It lists quite the information. I am also making the data public for everyone to see, and it can be found here:
EDIT: WARNING!!! It has come to my attention that clicking on a Google dock can be tracked back to your google account if you are signed in (potentially doxing you). Click the next link at your own risk.
EDIT 2: I edited the link to be a published link. It appears to be safer, but it can't be copied. I will gladly send anyone the link to the google sheets upon request (in case they want to copy the data)
Disclaimer: I am highly regarded, and I believe blue crayons taste the best, so take this as you want it.
Alright, Let's go.
I first input all the data form the two posts listed above into an Excel workbook. As an accountant, I thought it would be best to reconcile the two together to find any discrepancies between the numbers. The first thing I noticed is the Nominal value of the swaps did not add up perfectly between the two posts. However, since the post that has all they day by u/Naughty_Funkle_1992 had the Swaps broken down by Swap Counterparty and by the baskets, I decided to lean on that data a little more. For full disclosure the difference in the total Nominal value between the two posts was/is $525M (or about 1%), so both data sets are good enough to work with.
Remember this is a hypothetical. There could have been ten to twenty stocks in those swaps, so let's try to find more reasonable numbers:
These appear somewhat more realistic, but again, we don't know what we don't know, and what we don't know is what comprised of those swaps. These are just hypothetical based on the data that we currently have.
We can dive deeper though. We know that there are several counterparties to the swaps (at least six for these basket swaps), and we also know that these numbers only refer to Archegos. They do not contain the data for our friendly-neighborhood criminal Kenneth Griffin (who lied under oath to Congress, everyone) and Citadel, Virtu, State Street, etc. But what we do know is Credit Suisse seems to be on the hook for a lot of these swaps, so I'm assuming they are SC5 and/or SC6 from above.
Diving deeper, we can extract the current nominal value of the swaps based on today's closing price. We can do that by taking the share count from above and multiplying by today's closing price of $26.64.
Nominal value of swaps
Let's have some fun and see the bigger percentages of the swaps. I give you:
Nominal value of higher hypothetical percentages
So if all the basket swaps (which probably vary from basket to basket by the way) all had 5% of GME, the nominal value today is $3.5B, but if they had 25% that nominal value would be $17B. It may not sound like a huge number in the grand scheme of things, but remember that retail has locked up $2.35B (as of today's closing price of $26.64 (which would be $3B if the price was closer to $34)). Also, this number is actually really high when considering that GME's market cap is only $8.1B today.
Furthermore, this is only Archegos's swaps and doesn't include any data into swaps by Citadel, Virtu, State Street, etc., and Archegos is a drop in the bucket compared to how big those firms are. So even if Archegos was their size and they all were fairly equally short and if we only use the 5% from above and multiply it by 4 to include the three other firms just mentioned.... drum roll.... $14B minimal in swaps holding GME (almost twice the current market cap).
Conclusion: There is definitely more data that can be extracted from what I have put together, but I only did what I could in a short amount of time, as I'm supposed to be working; however, I thought it was important to point out some data that I put together and share it with everyone. I also believe that this post right here is why the CFTC won't release swap data and isn't making anyone report swaps until 2025. It's because there are apes out there like me that love data and can decipher it down very quickly and methodically.
In short, GME is definitely going to moon, and short r fuk, hedgies r fuk, and we moon soon.
Power to the Players
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