Could someone explain this concept to me in the context of the short run cost curve and long run cost curve? I understand that in imperfect competition , in comparison to perfect competition, firms can have differentiated products and that in the short run, the demand becomes more elastic since everyone is selling similar products, whereas in the long run they are selling more differentiated products + the entry of firms. Is that what the graph is explaining? I still have a tough time reading the graphs.
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https://preview.redd.it/rdpib4mkze2a1.png?width=513&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d902cdeabcb20c78b0afea79c95363fc46e90bf

As the Fed begins their journey into a deflationary blizzard, they are beginning to break markets across the globe. As the World Reserve Currency, over 60% of all international trade is done in Dollars, and USDs are the largest Foreign Exchange (Forex) holdings by far for global central banks. Now all foreign currencies are crashing against the Dollar as the vicious feedback loops of Triffin’s Dilemma come home to roost. The Dollar Milkshake has begun.
The Fed, knowingly or unknowingly, has walked into this trap- and now they find themselves caught underneath the Sword of Damocles, with no way out…
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Sword Of Damocles
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“The famed “sword of Damocles” dates back to an ancient moral parable popularized by the Roman philosopher Cicero in his 45 B.C. book “Tusculan Disputations.” Cicero’s version of the tale centers on Dionysius II, a tyrannical king who once ruled over the Sicilian city of Syracuse during the fourth and fifth centuries B.C.
Though rich and powerful, Dionysius was supremely unhappy. His iron-fisted rule had made him many enemies, and he was tormented by fears of assassination—so much so that he slept in a bedchamber surrounded by a moat and only trusted his daughters to shave his beard with a razor.
As Cicero tells it, the king’s dissatisfaction came to a head one day after a court flatterer named Damocles showered him with compliments and remarked how blissful his life must be. “Since this life delights you,” an annoyed Dionysius replied, “do you wish to taste it yourself and make a trial of my good fortune?” When Damocles agreed, Dionysius seated him on a golden couch and ordered a host of servants wait on him. He was treated to succulent cuts of meat and lavished with scented perfumes and ointments.
Damocles couldn’t believe his luck, but just as he was starting to enjoy the life of a king, he noticed that Dionysius had also hung a razor-sharp sword from the ceiling. It was positioned over Damocles’ head, suspended only by a single strand of horsehair.
From then on, the courtier’s fear for his life made it impossible for him to savor the opulence of the feast or enjoy the servants. After casting several nervous glances at the blade dangling above him, he asked to be excused, saying he no longer wished to be so fortunate.”
—---------------
Damocles’ story is a cautionary tale of being careful of what you wish for- Those who strive for power often unknowingly create the very systems that lead to their own eventual downfall. The Sword is often used as a metaphor for a looming danger; a hidden trap that can obliterate those unaware of the great risk that hegemony brings.
Heavy lies the head which wears the crown.
​
There are several Swords of Damocles hanging over the world today, but the one least understood and least believed until now is Triffin’s Dilemma, which lays the bedrock for the Dollar Milkshake Theory. I’ve already written extensively about Triffin’s Dilemma around a year ago in Part 1.5 and Part 4.3 of my Dollar Endgame Series, but let’s recap again.
Here’s a great summary- read both sides of the dilemma:
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Triffin's Dilemma Summarized

(Seriously, stop here and go back and read Part 1.5 and Part 4.3 Do it!)

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Essentially, Triffin noted that there was a fundamental flaw in the system: by virtue of the fact that the United States is a World Reserve Currency holder, the global financial system has built in GLOBAL demand for Dollars. No other fiat currency has this.
How is this demand remedied? With supply of course! The United States thus is forced to run current account deficits - meaning it must send more dollars out into the world than it receives on a net basis. This has several implications, which again, I already outlined- but I will list in summary format below:

1. The United States has to be a net importer, ie it must run trade deficits, in order to supply the world with dollars. Remember, dollars and goods are opposite sides of the same equation, so a greater trade deficits means that more dollars are flowing out to the world.
2. (This will devastate US domestic manufacturing, causing political/social/economic issues at home.)
3. These dollars flow outwards into the global economy, and are picked up by institutions in a variety of ways.
4. First, foreign central banks will have to hold dollars as Foreign Exchange Reserves to defend their currency in case of attack on the Forex markets. This was demonstrated during the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98, when the Thai Baht, Malaysian Ringgit, and Philippine Peso (among other East Asian currencies) plunged against the Dollar. Their central banks attempted to defend the pegs but they failed.
5. Second, companies will need Dollars for trade- as the USD makes up over 60% of global trade volume, and has the deepest and most liquid forex market by far, even small firms that need to transact cross border trade will have to acquire USDs in order to operate. When South Africa and Chile trade, they don’t want to use Mexican Pesos or Korean Won- they want Dollars.
6. Foreign governments need dollars. There are several countries already who have adopted the Dollar as a replacement for their own currency- Ecuador and Zimbabwe being prime examples. There’s a full list here.
7. Third world governments that don’t fully adopt dollars as their own currencies will still use them to borrow. Argentina has 70% of it’s debt denominated in dollars and Indonesia has 30%, for example. Dollar-denominated debt will build up overseas.

The example I gave in Part 1.5 was that of Liberia, a small West African Nation looking to enter global trade. Needing to hold dollars as part of their exchange reserves, the Liberian Central Bank begins buying USDs on the open market. The process works in a similar fashion for large Liberian export companies.
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Dollar Recycling
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Essentially, they print their own currency to buy Dollars. Wanting to earn interest on this massive cash hoard when it isn’t being used, they buy Treasuries and other US debt securities to get a yield.
As their domestic economy grows, their need and dependence on the Dollar grows as well. Their Central Bank builds up larger and larger hoards of Treasuries and Dollars. The entire thesis is that during times of crisis, they can sell the Treasuries for USD, and use the USDs to buy back their own currency on the market- supporting its value and therefore defending the peg.
This buying pressure on USDs and Treasuries confers a massive benefit to the United States-
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The Exorbitant Privilege
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This buildup of excess dollars ends up circulating overseas in banks, trade brokers, central banks, governments and companies. These overseas dollars are called the Eurodollar system- a 2016 research paper estimated the size to be around $13.8 Trillion USD. This system is not under official Federal Reserve jurisdiction so it is difficult to get accurate numbers on its size.
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https://preview.redd.it/92wcmhdb0uq91.png?width=691&format=png&auto=webp&s=20dbaf63f75ff6f2e255fff06e6f48c03170b11b
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This means the Dollar is always artificially stronger than it should be- and during financial calamity, the dollar is a safe haven as there are guaranteed bidders.
All this dollar denominated debt paired with the global need for dollars in trade creates strong and persistent dollar demand. Demand that MUST be satisfied.
This creates systemic risk on a worldwide scale- an unforeseen Sword of Damocles that hangs above the global financial system. I’ve been trying to foreshadow this in my Dollar Endgame Series.
Triffin’s Dilemma is the basis for the Dollar Milkshake Theory posited by Brent Johnson.
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The Dollar Milkshake

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Milkshake of Liquidity
In 2021, Brent worked with RealVision to create a short summary of his thesis- the video can be found here. I should note that Brent has had this theory for years, dating back to 2018, when he first came on podcasts and interviews and laid out his theory (like this video, for example).
Here’s the summary below:
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“A giant milkshake of liquidity has been created by global central banks with the dollar as its key ingredient - but if the dollar moves higher this milkshake will be sucked into the US creating a vicious spiral that could quickly destabilize financial markets.
The US dollar is the bedrock of the world's financial system. It greases the wheels of global commerce and exchange- the availability of dollars, cost of dollars, and the level of the dollar itself each can have an outsized impact on economies and investment opportunities.
But more important than the absolute level or availability of dollars is the rate of change in the level of the dollar. If the level of the dollar moves too quickly and particularly if the level rises too fast then problems start popping up all over the place (foreign countries begin defaulting).
Today however many people are convinced that both the role of the Dollar is diminishing and the level of the dollar will only decline. People think that the US is printing so many dollars that the world will be awash with the greenback causing the value of the dollar to fall.
Now it's true that the US is printing a lot of dollars – but other countries are also printing their own currencies in similar amounts so in theory it should even out in terms of value.
But the hidden issue is the difference in demand. Remember the global financial system is built on the US dollar which means even if they don't want them everybody still needs them and if you need something you don't really have much choice. (See DXY Index):
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DXY Index
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Although many countries like China are trying to reduce their reliance on dollar transactions this will be a very slow transition. In the meantime the risks of a currency or sovereign debt crisis continue to rise.
But now countries like China and Japan need dollars to buy copper from Australia so the Chinese and the Japanese owe dollars and Australia is getting paid in dollars.
Europe and Asia currently doing very limited amount of non-dollar transactions for oil so they still need dollars to buy oil from saudi and again dollars get hoovered up on both sides
Asia and Europe need dollars to buy soybeans from Brazil. This pulls in yet more dollars - everybody needs dollars for trade invoices, central bank currency reserves and servicing massive cross-border dollar denominated debts of governments and corporations outside the USA.
And the dollar-denominated debt is key- if they don't service their debts or walk away from their dollar debts their funding costs rise putting great financial pressure on their domestic economies. Not only that, it can lead to a credit contraction and a rapid tightening of dollar supply.
The US is happy with the reliance on the greenback they own the settlement system which benefits the US banks who process all the dollars and act as gatekeepers to the Dollar system they police and control the access to the system which benefits the US military machine where defense spending is in excess of any other country so naturally the US benefits from the massive volumes of dollar usage.
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https://preview.redd.it/yq1f1anq0uq91.png?width=1140&format=png&auto=webp&s=27447e2acec884848a5c70ab3651820e487fc0f3
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Other countries have naturally been grumbling about being held hostage to the situation but the choices are limited. What it does mean is that dollars need to be constantly sucked out of the USA because other countries all over the world need them to do business and of course the more people there are who need and want those dollars the more is the pressure on the price of dollars to go up.
In fact, global demand is so high that the supply of dollars is just not enough to keep up, even with the US continually printing money. This is why we haven't seen consistently rising US inflation despite so many QE and stimulus programs since the global financial crisis in 2008.
But, the real risk comes when other economies start to slow down or when the US starts to grow relative to the other economies. If there is relatively less economic activity elsewhere in the world then there are fewer dollars in global circulation for others to use in their daily business and of course if there are fewer in circulation then the price goes up as people chase that dwindling source of dollars.
Which is terrible for countries that are slowing down because just when they are suffering economically they still need to pay for many goods in dollars and they still need to service their debts which of course are often in dollars too.
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So the vortex begins or as we like to say the dollar milkshake- As the level of the dollar rises the rest of the world needs to print more and more of its own currency to then convert to dollars to pay for goods and to service its dollar debt this means the dollar just keeps on rising in response many countries will be forced to devalue their own currencies so of course the dollar rises again and this puts a huge strain on the global system.
(see the charts below:)
JPY/USD
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GBP/USD
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EUUSD
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To make matters worse in this environment the US looks like an attractive safe haven so the US ends up sucking in the capital from the rest of the world-the dollar rises again. Pretty soon you have a full-scale sovereign bond and currency crisis.
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https://preview.redd.it/72nlain01uq91.png?width=1141&format=png&auto=webp&s=cbaa411acc88acb3849949d84a36624d75d6cfc4
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We're now into that final napalm run that sees the dollar and dollar assets accelerate even higher and this completely undermines global markets. Central banks try to prevent disorderly moves, but the global markets are bigger and the momentum unstoppable once it takes hold.
And that is the risk that very few people see coming but that everyone should have a hedge against - when the US sucks up the dollar milkshake, bad things are going to happen.
Worst of all there's no alternatives- what are you going to use-- Chinese Yuan? Japanese Yen? the Euro??
Now, like it or not we're stuck with a dollar underpinning the global financial system.”
—-------------
Why is it playing out now, in real time?? It all leads back to a tweet I made in a thread on September 16th.
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Tweet Thread about the Yuan
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The Fed, rushing to avoid a financial crisis in March 2020, printed trillions. This spurred inflation, which they then swore to fight. Thus they began hiking interest rates on March 16th, and began Quantitative Tightening this summer.
QE had stopped- No new dollars were flowing out into a system which has a constant demand for them. Worse yet, they were hiking completely blind-
Although the Fed is very far behind the curve, (meaning they are hiking far too late to really combat inflation)- other countries are even farther behind!
Japan has rates currently at 0.00- 0.25%, and the Eurozone is at 1.25%. These central banks have barely begun hiking, and some even swear to keep them at the zero-bound. By hiking domestic interest rates above foreign ones, the Fed is incentivizing what are called carry trades.
Since there is a spread between the Yen and the Dollar in terms of interest rates, it thus is profitable for traders to borrow in Yen (shorting it essentially) and buy Dollars, which can earn 2.25% interest. The spread would be around 2%.
DXY rises, and the Yen falls, in a vicious feedback loop.
Thus capital flows out of Japan, and into the US. The US sucks up the Dollar Milkshake, draining global liquidity. As I’ve stated before, this has seriously dangerous implications for the global financial system.
For those of you who don’t believe this could be foreseen, check out the ending paragraphs of Dollar Endgame Part 4.3 - “Economic Warfare and the End of Bretton Woods” published February 16, 2022:
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Triffin's Dilemma is the Final Nail
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What I’ve been attempting to do in my work is restate Triffins’ Dilemma, and by extension the Dollar Milkshake, in other terms- to come at the issue from different angles.
Currently the Fed is not printing money. Which is thus causing havoc in global trade (seen in the currency markets) because not enough dollars are flowing out to satisfy demand.
The Fed must therefore restart QE unless it wants to spur a collapse on a global scale. Remember, all these foreign countries NEED to buy, borrow and trade in a currency that THEY CANNOT PRINT!
We do not have enough time here to go in depth on the Yen, Yuan, Pound or the Euro- all these currencies have different macro factors and trade factors which affect their currencies to a large degree. But the largest factor by FAR is Triffin’s Dilemma + the Dollar Milkshake, and their desperate need for dollars. That is why basically every fiat currency is collapsing versus the Dollar.
The Fed, knowingly or not, is basically in charge of the global financial system. They may shout, “We raise rates in the US to fight inflation, global consequences be damned!!” - But that’s a hell of a lot more difficult to follow when large G7 countries are in the early stages of a full blown currency crisis.
The most serious implication is that the Fed is responsible for supplying dollars to everyone. When they raise rates, they trigger a margin call on the entire world. They need to bail them out by supplying them with fresh dollars to stabilize their currencies.
In other words, the Fed has to run the loosest and most accommodative monetary policy worldwide- they must keep rates as low as possible, and print as much as possible, in order to keep the global financial system running. If they don’t do that, sovereigns begin to blow up, like Japan did last week and like England did on Wednesday.
And if the world’s financial system implodes, they must bail out not only the United States, but virtually every global central bank. This is the Sword of Damocles. The money needed for this would be well in the dozens of trillions.
The Dollar Endgame Approaches…
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Q&A

(Many of you have been messaging me with questions, rebuttals or comments. I’ll do my best to answer some of the more poignant ones here.)

—-----
Q: I’ve been reading your work, you keep saying the dollar is going to fall in value, and be inflated away. Now you’re switching sides and joining the dollar bull faction. Seems like you don’t know what you’re talking about!
A: You’re mixing up my statements. When I discuss the dollar losing value, I am referring to it falling in ABSOLUTE value, against goods and services produced in the real economy. This is what is called inflation. I made this call in 2021, and so far, it has proven right as inflation has accelerated.
The dollar gaining strength ONLY applies to foreign currency exchange markets (Forex)- remember, DXY, JPYUSD, and other currency pairs are RELATIVE indicators of value. Therefore, both JPY and USD can be falling in real terms (inflation) but if one is falling faster, then that one will lose value relative to the other. Also, Forex markets are correlated with, but not an exact match, for inflation.
I attempted to foreshadow the entire dollar bull thesis in the conclusion of Part 1 of the Dollar Endgame, posted well over a year ago-
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Unraveling of the Currency Markets
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I did not give an estimate on when this would happen, or how long DXY would be whipsawed upwards, because I truly do not know.
I do know that eventually the Fed will likely open up swap lines, flooding the Eurodollar market with fresh greenbacks and easing the dollar short squeeze. Then selling pressure will resume on the dollar. They would only likely do this when things get truly calamitous- and we are on our way towards getting there.
The US bond market is currently in dire straits, which matches the prediction of spiking interest rates. The 2yr Treasury is at 4.1%, it was at 3.9% just a few days ago. Only a matter of time until the selloff gets worse.
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Q: Foreign Central banks can find a way out. They can just use their reserves to buy back their own currency.
Sure, they can try that. It’ll work for a while- but what happens once they run out of reserves, which basically always happens? I can’t think of a time in financial history that a country has been able to defend a currency peg against a sustained attack.
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Global Forex Reserves
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They’ll run out of bullets, like they always do, and basically the only option left will be to hike interest rates, to attract capital to flow back into their country. But how will they do that with global debt to GDP at 356%? If all these countries do that, they will cause a global depression on a scale never seen before.
Britain, for example, has a bit over $100B of reserves. That provides maybe a few months of cover in the Forex markets until they’re done.
Furthermore, you are ignoring another vicious feedback loop. When the foreign banks sell US Treasuries, this drives up yields in the US, which makes even more capital flow to the US! This weakens their currency even further.
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FX Feedback Loop
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To add insult to injury, this increases US Treasury borrowing costs, which means even if the Fed completely ignores the global economy imploding, the US will pay much more in interest. We will reach insolvency even faster than anyone believes.
The 2yr Treasury bond is above 4%- with $31T of debt, that means when we refinance we will pay $1.24 Trillion in interest alone. Who's going to buy that debt? The only entity with a balance sheet large enough to absorb that is the Fed. Restarting QE in 3...2…1…
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Q: I live in England. With the Pound collapsing, what can I do? What will happen from here? How will the governments respond?
England, and Europe in general, is in serious trouble. You guys are currently facing a severe energy crisis stemming from Russia cutting off Nord Stream 1 in early September and now with Nord Stream 2 offline due to a mysterious leak, energy supplies will be even more tight.
Not to mention, you have a pretty high debt to GDP at 95%. Britain is a net importer, and is still running government deficits of £15.8 billion (recorded in Q1 2022). Basically, you guys are the United States without your own large scale energy and defense sector, and without Empire status and a World Reserve Currency that you once had.
The Pound will almost certainly continue falling against the Dollar. The Bank of England panicked on Wednesday in reaction to a $100M margin call on British pension funds, and now has begun buying long dated (10yr) gilts, or government bonds.
They’re doing this as inflation is spiking there even worse than the US, and the nation faces a currency crisis as the Pound is nearing parity with the Dollar.
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BOE announces bond-buying scheme (9/28/22)
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I will not sugarcoat it, things will get rough. You need to hold cash, make sure your job, business, or investments are secure (ie you have cashflow) and hunker down. Eliminate any unnecessary purchases. If you can, buy USDs as they will likely continue to rise and will hold value better than your own currency.
If Parliament goes through with more tax cuts, that will only make the fiscal situation worse and result in more borrowing, and thus more money printing in the end.
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Q: What does this mean for Gamestop? For the domestic US economy?
Gamestop will continue to operate as I am sure they have been- investing in growth and expanding their Web3 platform.
Fiat is fundamentally broken. This much is clear- we need a new financial system not based on flawed 16th fractional banking principles or “trust me bro” financial intermediaries.
My hope is that they are at the forefront of a new financial system which does not require centralized authorities or custodians- one where you truly own your assets, and debasement is impossible.
I haven’t really written about GME extensively because it’s been covered so well by others, and I don’t feel I have that much to add.
As for the US economy, we are still in a deep recession, no matter what the politicians say- and it will get worse. But our economic troubles, at least in the short term (6 months) will not be as severe as the rest of the world due to the aforementioned Dollar Milkshake.
The debt crisis is still looming, midterms are approaching, and the government continues to deficit spend as if there’s no tomorrow.
As the global monetary system unravels, yields will spike, the deleveraging will get worse, and our dollar will get stronger. The fundamental factors continue to deteriorate.
I’ve covered the US enough so I'll leave it there.
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Q: Did you know about the Dollar Milkshake Theory before recently? What did you think of it?
Of course I knew about it, I’ve been following Brent Johnson since he appeared on RealVision and Macrovoices. He laid out the entire theory in 2018 in a long form interview here. I listened to it maybe a couple times, and at the time I thought he was right- I just didn’t know how right he was.
Brent and I have followed each other and been chatting a little on Twitter- his handle is SantiagoAuFund, I highly recommend you give him a follow.
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Twitter Chat
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I’ve never met him in person, but from what I can see, his predictions are more accurate than almost anyone else in finance. Again, all credit to him- he truly understands the global monetary system on a fundamental level.
I believed him when he said the dollar would rally- but the speed and strength of the rally has surprised me. I’ve heard him predict DXY could go to 150, mirroring the massive DXY squeeze post the 1970s stagflation. He could very easily be right- and the absolute chaos this would mean for global trade and finance are unfathomable.
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History of DXY
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Q: The Pound and Euro are falling just because of the energy crisis there. That's it!
Why is the Yen falling then? How about the Yuan? Those countries are not currently undergoing an energy crisis. Let’s review the year to date performance of most fiat currencies vs the dollar:
Japanese Yen: -20.31%
Chinese Yuan: -10.79%
South African Rand: -10.95%
English Pound: -18.18%
Euro: -14.01%
Swiss Franc: -6.89%
South Korean Won: -16.73%
Indian Rupee: -8.60%
Turkish Lira: -27.95%
There are only a handful of currencies positive against the dollar, the most notable being the Russian Ruble and the Brazilian Real- two countries which have massive commodity resources and are strong exporters. In an inflationary environment, hard assets do best, so this is no surprise.
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Q: What can the average person do to prepare? What are you doing?
Obligatory this is NOT financial advice
This is an extremely difficult question, as there are so many factors. You need to ask yourself, what is your financial situation like? How much disposable income do you have? What things could you cut back on? I can’t give you specific ideas without knowing your situation.
Personally, I am building up savings and cutting down on expenses. I’m getting ready for a severe recession/depression in the US and trying to find ways to increase my income, maybe a side hustle or switching jobs.
I am holding my GME and not selling- I still have some shares in Fidelity that I need to DRS (I know, sorry, I was procrastinating).
For the next few months, I believe there will be accelerating deflation as interest rates spike and the debt cycle begins to unwind. But like I’ve stated before, this will lead us towards a second Great Depression very rapidly, and to avoid the deflationary blizzard the Fed will restart QE on a scale never seen before.
QE Infinity. This will be the impetus for even worse inflation- 25%+ by this time next year.
It’s hard to prepare for this, and easy to feel hopeless. It’s important to know that we have been through monetary crises before, and society did not devolve into a zombie apocalypse. You are not alone, and we will get through this together.
It’s also important to note that we are holding the most lopsided investment opportunity of a generation. Any money you put in there can be grown by orders of magnitude.
We are at the end of the Central Bankers game- and although it will be painful, we will rid the world of them, I believe, and build a new financial system based on blockchains which will disintermediate the institutions. They have everything to lose.
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Q: I want to learn more, where can I do? What can I do to keep up to date with everything?
You can start by reading books, listening to podcasts, and checking the news to stay abreast of developments. I have a book list linked at the end of the Dollar Endgame posts.
I’ll be covering the central bank clown show on Twitter, you can follow me there if you like. I’ll also include links to some of my favorite macro people below:

• Peruvian Bull (my only account)
• Lyn Alden
• Luke Gromen
• Brent Johnson
• Raoul Pal
• Andreas Steno Larsen
• Jeffrey Snider

I’m still finishing up the finale for Dollar Endgame- I should have it out soon. I’m also writing an addendum to the series which is purely Q&A to answer questions and concerns. Sorry for the wait.
—-------------------
Nothing on this Post constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any security, portfolio of securities, investment product, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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https://preview.redd.it/mtrfcjk3tlq91.png?width=1137&format=png&auto=webp&s=6915fa89c9d865cca82667597bb3d986f4bcd967
For perfect competition, isn't the long run supply curve the Marginal Cost curve?
If so, when companies earn economic profits (P=MR > AC), shouldn't the AC curve be the one that shifts? Why is MC shifting to the right?

I am getting increasingly worried about the amount of warning signals that are flashing red for hyperinflation- I believe the process has already begun, as I will lay out in this paper. The first stages of hyperinflation begin slowly, and as this is an exponential process, most people will not grasp the true extent of it until it is too late. I know I’m going to gloss over a lot of stuff going over this, sorry about this but I need to fit it all into four posts without giving everyone a 400 page treatise on macro-economics to read. Counter-DDs and opinions welcome. This is going to be a lot longer than a normal DD, but I promise the pay-off is worth it, knowing the history is key to understanding where we are today.
SERIES TL/DR (PARTS 1-4): We are at the end of a MASSIVE debt supercycle. This 80-100 year pattern always ends in one of two scenarios- default/restructuring (deflation a la Great Depression) or inflation( hyperinflation in severe cases (a la Weimar Republic). The United States has been abusing it’s privilege as the World Reserve Currency holder to enforce its political and economic hegemony onto the Third World, specifically by creating massive artificial demand for treasuries/US Dollars, allowing the US to borrow extraordinary amounts of money at extremely low rates for decades, creating a Sword of Damocles that hangs over the global financial system.
The massive debt loads have been transferred worldwide, and sovereigns are starting to call our bluff. Systemic risk within the US financial system (from derivatives) has built up to the point that collapse is all but inevitable, and the Federal Reserve has demonstrated it will do whatever it takes to defend legacy finance (banks, brokedealers, etc) and government solvency, even at the expense of everything else (The US Dollar).

I’ll break this down into four parts. ALL of this is interconnected, so please read these in order:

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Updated Complete Table of Contents:

• Part 1.0: The Global Monetary System
• Part 1.5: Triffin’s Dilemma and the New Rome
• Part 2.0: Reflexivity and the Shadows of Black Monday
• Part 2.5: Derivatives and the Alchemy of Risk
• Part 3.0: Debt Cycles and Great Depression
• Part 3.5: The Money Illusion
• Part 4.0: The Weimar Republic
• Part 4.1: Nightmare of Hyperinflation
• Part 4.2: Financial Gravity & The Fed’s Dilemma
• Part 4.3: Economic Warfare & The End of Bretton Woods

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Preface:

Some terms you need to know:

Inflation: Commonly refers to increase in prices (per Keynesian thinking). However, Inflation in the truest sense is inflation (growth) of the money supply- higher prices are just the RESULT of monetary inflation. (Think, in normal terms, prices really only rise/fall, same with temperatures. (ie Housing prices rose today). The word Inflation refers to a growth in multiple directions (quantity and velocity). Deflation means a contraction of the money supply, which results in falling prices.
Dollarization (Weaponization of the Dollar): The process by which the US government, IMF, World Bank, and other elite organizations force countries to adopt dollar systems and therefore create indirect demand for dollars, supporting its value. (Think Petrodollars).
Central Banks: Generally these are banks that control/monitor the monetary policy of the country they reside in. They are usually owned by private financial institutions (large banks/bank holding firms). They utilize open market operations%20refers,out%20to%20businesses%20and%20consumers.) to stabilize and set market rates. They are called the “Lender of Last Resort” as they are supposed to LEND (not bailout/buy assets) to other banks in a crisis and help defend their currency’s value in international forex markets. CBs are beholden to the “dual mandate” of maintaining price stability (low inflation) and a strong job market (low unemployment)
Monetary Policy: The set of tools that central bankers have to adjust how money moves through the financial system. The main tool they use is quantitative tightening/easing, which basically means selling treasuries or buying treasuries, respectively. *A quick note- bond prices and interest rates move inversely to one another, so when Central banks buy bonds (easing), they lower interest rates; and when they sell bonds (tightening), they increase interest rates.
Fiscal Policy: The actions taken by the government (mainly spending and taxing) to influence macroeconomic conditions. Fiscal policy and monetary policy are supposed to be enacted independently, so as not to allow massive mismanagement of the money supply to lead to extreme conditions (aka high inflation/hyperinflation or deflation)
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Part One: The Global Monetary System- A New Rome

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Allegory of the Prisoner's Dilemma

Prologue:

In their masterwork tapestry entitled “Allegory of the Prisoner’s Dilemma” (pictured in the title image of this post) the artists Diaz Hope and Roth visually depict a great tower of civilization that rests upon a bedrock of human cooperation and competition across history. The artists force us to confront the fact that after 10,000 years of human civilization we are now at a cross-roads. Today we have the highest living standards in human history that co-exists with an ability to destroy our planet ecologically and ourselves through nuclear war.
We are in the greatest period of stability with the largest probabilistic tail risk ever. The majority of Americans have lived their entire lives without ever experiencing a direct war and this is, by all accounts, rare in the history of humankind. Does this mean we are safe? Or does the risk exist in some other form, transmuted and changed by time and space, unseen by most political pundits who brazenly tout perpetual American dominance across our screens? (Pulled from Artemis Capital Research Paper)
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The Bretton Woods Agreement

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Money, in and of itself, might have actual value; it can be a shell, a metal coin, or a piece of paper. Its value depends on the importance that people place on it—traditionally, money functions as a medium of exchange, a unit of measurement, and a storehouse for wealth (what is called the three factor definition of money). Money allows people to trade goods and services indirectly, it helps communicate the price of goods (prices written in dollar and cents correspond to a numerical amount in your possession, i.e. in your pocket, purse, or wallet), and it provides individuals with a way to store their wealth in the long-term.
Since the inception of world trade, merchants have attempted to use a single form of money for international settlement. In the 1500s-1700s, the Spanish silver peso (where we derive the $ sign) was the standard- by the 1800s and early 1900s, the British rose to prominence and the Pound (under a gold standard) became the de facto world reserve currency, helping to boost the UK’s military and economic dominance over much of the world. After World War 1, geopolitical power started to shift to the US, and this was cemented in 1944 at Bretton Woods, where the US was designated as the WRC (World Reserve Currency) holder.
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Bretton Woods
In the early fall of 1939, the world had watched in horror as the German blitzkrieg raced through Poland, and combined with a simultaneous Russian invasion, had conquered the entire territory in 35 days. This was no easy task, as the Polish army numbered more than 1,500,000 men, and was thought by military tacticians to be a tough adversary, even for the industrious German war machine. As WWII continued to heat up and country after country fell to the German onslaught, European countries, fretting over possible invasions of their countries and annexation of their gold, started sending massive amounts of their Gold Reserves to the US. At one point, the Federal Reserve held over 50% of all above-ground reserves in the world.
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US Trade Balance
In a global monetary system restrained by a Gold Standard, countries HAVE to have gold reserves in their vaults in order to issue paper currency. The Western European powers all exited the Gold standard via executive acts in the during the dark days of the Great Depression (in Germany’s case, immediately after WW1) and build up to War by their respective finance ministers, but the understanding was they would return back to the Gold standard, or at least some form of it, after the chaos had subsided.
As the war wound down, and it became clear that the Allies would win, the Western Powers understood that they would need to come to a new consensus on the creation of a new global monetary and economic system.
Britain, the previous world superpower, was marred by the war, and had seen most of her industrial cities in ruin from the Blitz. France was basically in tatters, with most industrial infrastructure completely obliterated by German and American shelling during various points of the war. The leaders of the Western world looked ahead to a long road of rebuilding and recovery. The new threat of the USSR loomed heavy on the horizon, as the Iron Curtain was already taking shape within the territories re-conquered by the hordes of Red Army.
Realizing that it was unsafe to send the gold back from the US, they understood that a post-war economic system would need a new World Reserve Currency. The US was the de-facto choice as it had massive reserves and huge lending capacity due to its untouched infrastructure and incredibly productive economy.
At Bretton Woods, the consortium of nations assented to an agreement whereby the Dollar would become the WRC and the participating nations would synchronize monetary policy to avoid competitive devaluation. In summary, they could still redeem dollars for Gold at a fixed rate of $35 an oz, a hard redemption peg which the U.S would defend.
Thus they entered into a quasi- Gold standard, where citizens and private corporations could NOT redeem dollars for Gold (due to the Gold Reserve Act , c. 1934), but sovereign governments (Central banks) could still redeem dollars for gold. Since their currencies (like the Franc and Pound) were pegged to the Dollar, and the Dollar pegged to gold, all countries remained connected indirectly to a gold standard, stabilizing their currency conversion rate to each other and limiting local governments’ ability to print and spend recklessly.
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US Gold Reserves
For a few decades, this system worked well enough. US economic growth spurred European rebuilding, and world trade continued to increase. Cracks started to appear during the Guns and Butter era of the 1960’s, when Vietnam War spending and Johnson’s Great Society programs spurred a new era of fiscal profligacy. The US started borrowing massively, and dollars in the form of Treasuries started stacking up in foreign Central Banks reserve accounts.
Then-French President Charles De Gaulle did the calculus and realized in 1965 that the US had issued far too many dollars, even considering the massive gold reserves they had, to ever redeem all dollars for gold (remember naked shorting more shares than exist? -same idea here). He laid out this argument in his infamous Criterion Speech and began aggressively redeeming dollars for gold.
The global “run on the dollar” had already begun, but the process accelerated after his seminal address, as every large sovereign turned in their dollars for bullion, and the US Treasury was forced to start massively exporting gold. Backing the sovereign government's actions were fiscal and monetary strategists getting more and more worried that the US would not have enough gold to redeem their dollars, and they would be left holding a bag of worthless paper dollars, backed by nothing but promises. The outward flow of gold quickly became a deluge, and policymakers at all levels of Treasury and the State department started to worry.
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Nixon ends Bretton Woods
Nearing a coming dollar solvency crisis, Richard Nixon announced on August 15th, 1971 that he was closing the gold window, effectively barring all countries from current and future gold redemptions. Money ceased to be based on the gold in the Treasury vaults, and instead was now completely unbacked, based solely on government decree, or fiat. Fixed wage and price controls were created, inflation skyrocketed, and unemployment spiked.
Nixon’s speech was not received as well internationally as it was in the United States. Many in the international community interpreted Nixon’s plan as a unilateral act. In response, the Group of Ten (G-10) industrialized democracies decided on new exchange rates that centered on a devalued dollar in what became known as the Smithsonian Agreement. That plan went into effect in Dec. 1971, but it proved unsuccessful. Beginning in Feb. 1973, speculative market pressure caused the USD to devalue and led to a series of exchange parities.
Amid still-heavy pressure on the dollar in March of that year, the G–10 implemented a strategy that called for six European members to tie their currencies together and jointly float them against the dollar. That decision essentially brought an end to the fixed exchange rate system established by Bretton Woods. This crisis came to be known as the “Nixon Shock” and the DXY (US dollar index) began to fall in global markets.
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DXY
This crisis came out of the blue for most members of the administration. According to Keynesian economists, stagflation was literally impossible, as it was a violation of the Philips Curve principle, where Unemployment and Inflation were inversely correlated, thus inflation should theoretically be decreasing as the recession worsened and unemployment climbed through 1973-1975.
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Phillips Curve
MONKE-SPEK: Philips Curve Explained

• Low Unemployment>Lots of jobs/high demand for labor.
• Thus, more workers are employed, and wages rise>putting more money in more people’s pockets.
• These people go out and buy beanie babies, toasters, and bananas (what economist John Maynard Keynes called aggregate demand) and this higher demand leads to higher prices for goods and services. This shows up as inflation.
• Consider the opposite- high unemployment>fewer jobs>less money for people
• Less demand for goods and services> lower inflation

Keynesian economists treated this curve as a law of nature, rather than a general rule. We see exceptions to this rule everywhere- Argentina is a prime example, where they have persistently high unemployment AND high inflation. This phenomenon is called stagflation, and is evidence of inflationary pressures so strong that they overcome the deflationary force of high unemployment. These economists were utterly blindsided by the emergence of stagflation.
After the closing of the gold window in 1971, the crisis spread, inflation kept climbing, and other sovereigns began contemplating devaluing their currencies as their only peg, the US dollar, was now unmoored and looked to be heading to disaster.
US exports started climbing (cheaper dollar, foreigners could now import stuff to their countries), straining export economies and sparking talks of a currency war. Knowing they had to do something to stop the bleeding, the Nixon administration, at the direction of Henry Kissinger, made a secret deal with OPEC, creating what is now called the Petrodollar system. This article summarizes it best:
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PetroDollar system
Petrodollars had been around since the late 1940s, but only with a few suppliers. Petrodollars are U.S. dollars paid to an oil-exporting country for the sale of the commodity. Put simply, the petrodollar system is an exchange of oil for U.S. dollars between countries that buy oil and those that produce it.
By forcing the majority of the oil producers in the world to price contracts in dollars, it created artificial demand for dollars, helping to support US dollar value on foreign exchange markets. The petrodollar system creates surpluses for oil producers, which lead to large U.S. dollar reserves for oil exporters, which need to be recycled, meaning they can be channeled into loans or direct investment back in the United States.
It still wasn’t enough. Inflation, like many things, had inertia, and the oil shocks caused by the Yom Kippur War and other geo-political events continued to strain the economy through the 1970’s.
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PCE Index
Running out of road, monetary policymakers finally decided to employ the nuclear option. Paul Volcker, the new Federal Reserve Chairman selected in 1979, knew that it was imperative to break the back of inflation to preserve the global economic system. That year, inflation was spiking well above 10%, with no end in sight. He decided to do something about it.
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Volcker Doctrine
By hiking interest rates aggressively, consumer credit lending slowed, mortgages became more expensive to finance, and corporate debt became more expensive to borrow. Foreign companies that had been dumping US dollar holdings as inflation had risen now had good reason to keep their funds vested in US accounts. When the Petrodollar system, which had started taking shape in ‘73 was completed in March 1979 under the US-Saudi Joint Commission, the dollar finally began to stabilize. The worst of the crisis was over.
Volcker had to keep interest rates elevated well above 8% for most of the decade, to shore up support for the dollar and assure foreign creditors that the Fed would do whatever it takes to defend the value of the dollar in the future. These absurdly high interest rates put a brake to US government borrowing, at least for a few years. Foreign creditors breathed a sigh of relief as they saw that the Fed would go to extreme lengths to preserve the value of the dollar and ensure that Treasury bonds paid back their principal + interest in real terms.
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10yr US treasury yields
Over the next 40 years, the United States and most of the developed world saw a prolonged period of economic growth and global trade. Fiat money became the norm, and creditors accepted the new paradigm, with it’s new risk of inflation/devaluation (under the gold standard, current account deficits, and thus inflation risk, was self-stabilizing). The Global Monetary system now consisted of free-floating fiat currencies, liberated from the fetters of the gold system.

(I had to break this post up into two sections due to the character limit, here is second half of Pt 1): /

(Apes, this is a continuation of Part 3, please find the first half of Part 3 here)

The Money Illusion

In 2008, we were at the end of a major debt supercycle. The frenzied mortgage lending and securitization in the financial sector, along with massive consumer credit borrowing, had set the U.S. up for a major crisis. In relative terms, we were at a 27% HIGHER total debt to GDP ratio than the Great Depression.
These massive debt loads were coming home to roost, manifesting first as a crisis in subprime but then quickly moving to prime mortgages, corporate debt markets, money markets, and even the consumer credit markets. As discussed in Part 2, NY Fed Pres Tim Geitner stated that during the darkest days of 2008 the inter-bank lending market was freezing up, and we were “days away from the ATMs not working”.
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Total US (Public+Private) Debt to GDP
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But, this didn’t happen. Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, was a self avowed student of the Great Depression- and was determined not to let it happen again. He, along with Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson (Former CEO of Goldman Sachs) and Tim Geitner, created new lending facilities and MBS purchase programs in order to swallow the massive amounts of toxic assets the system had created.
Paulson and Bernanke technically had no legal authority to create these programs, but in a crisis, all caution goes out the window. TARP and other programs authorized by the Treasury bought billions of dollars of MBS, funded by T-bond issuances. This chart shows US Govt Debt as a % of GDP through today: (notice the spike in debt during and after 2008)
US Government Debt To GDP
The US borrowed heavily- TARP alone was authorized for $700 billion. The Treasury did not have the funds to support this so it issued billions of dollars of T-Bonds. Banks, hedge funds, other governments, and the Fed all bought these bonds en masse.
Remember, only the Treasury has the ability to SPEND, and only the Fed has the ability to LEND/PRINT. The Fed was created as a private institution to “protect” the government from reckless money-printing. The Primary Dealers (banks approved to trade directly with the Govt) buy Govt bonds from the US Treasury, and turn around and sell these bonds to the Fed or other third parties. If you’re confused about how the system works, I recommend watching this video on how the financial system functions.
In the equity markets, as we started bottoming in the first quarter of 2009, hedge funds, banks, and family offices began loading up on margin debt again. This renewed confidence in the banking system and overall lending capacity began pushing equity markets back up.
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Margin Debt and Stock Market Rally
Further stabilizing the markets was the Federal Reserve with their massive Quantitative Easing program. In 2008, the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet ballooned- assets (Treasuries and MBS) grew from $880 Billion pre-crisis, to $2 Trillion immediately after, and eventually over $4T by 2014. Many economists, particularly those with a libertarian bent, such as Peter Schiff, immediately decried this reckless behavior and predicted immediate hyper-inflation as early as 2011.
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
When the Fed buys assets, it is completely different from any other institution buying. Pension plans or mutual funds use the savings of the investors of the fund. Because that money came either from working, or from other investments, it represents NO net increase in money supply. The money they received HAD to come from someone else, for a good/product/service/asset they created or provided.
However, the Fed has no taxing authority, no savings, no funds to speak of at all- EVERYTHING the Fed buys it purchases through money it PRINTS. Thus, Fed Balance Sheet expansion=money printing. The Fed printed $2T in the two years following 2008.
This rampant money printing rightly worried experts and pundits in the media- but the inflation they feared never came. They were flat out WRONG. Why?
Most of the new money that was printed went directly into the banking system. Lyn Alden describes it brilliantly-
“Leading into the financial crisis, only about 13% of bank reserve assets consisted of cash (3%) and Treasury securities (10%). The rest of their assets were invested in loans and riskier securities. This was also at a time when household debt to GDP reached a record high, as consumers were caught up in the housing bubble.
That over-leveraged bank situation hit a climax into the 2008/2009 crisis, coinciding with record high debt-to-GDP among households, and was the apex of the long-term private (non-federal) debt cycle. When banks are that leveraged with very little cash reserves, even a 3% loss in assets results in insolvency. And that’s what happened; the banking system as a whole hit a peak total loan charge-off rate of over 3%, and it resulted in a widespread banking crisis” (I can't link source, it keeps getting the post taken down- I will post it in comments).
Bank Recapitalization
Thus, the new money went to recapitalize banks and shore up their balance sheets to defend them from bankruptcy- it stayed in untouchable bank reserves, and never entered circulation.
The money that didn’t go to repair bank balance sheets flowed directly into the markets - Let’s walk through it.
There are two different economies- the real economy, and the financial economy. The tidal wave of new money the Fed was creating did not cause inflation (in the traditional sense), because the money did not flow into the real economy- the goods, products and services that everyone consumes on a daily basis. The money instead flowed into the Financial economy- bond markets, stock markets, private equity funds, commodities, Forex markets, etc.
Financial Economy vs Real Economy
When you give a bank $100M, it doesn't go out and buy $100M worth of Big Macs and Kleenex- the bank puts these funds into investments, generally either in the form of loans or in the form of equities or equity derivatives. Thus, the funds that flowed into the banks are stored up almost exclusively in the financial system, or get pushed into loans to consumers.
“Wait a second!”- you say. “The Fed printed money to buy T-Bonds- The Treasury usually spends funds that go into the real economy-- so THAT should have caused inflation, right?”
Yes, this is typically what happens. But, during and after the 2008 financial crisis the majority of Treasury expenditures went to programs that were stabilizing the financial system (TARP+ TAF+ TLGP+ Others). So, the money that would have been spent by govt agencies in the real economy instead just flowed back to banks and financial institutions.
Typically in a recession the Treasury will increase spending to cushion the blow to workers- and in 2009 they did extend a few unemployment benefits. But, by and large, Congress authorized few benefit programs for workers, and the average time on the benefit decreased after a slight bump in 2009.
Average Time on Benefit
Thus, the amount of freshly-printed money that reached the real economy was minimal, and whatever money did reach it largely acted to counteract deflationary forces- it wasn’t enough to actually induce inflation. The government did little to stop foreclosures, or provide aid to small businesses. Unemployment spiked, and due to the Phillips Curve Principle (covered in Pt 1), this put a dampening effect on inflation.
Unemployment Rates
The funds the Federal Reserve had created, therefore, created no inflation in the real economy- instead they flowed to the financial economy and inflated financial assets. This started off the largest and longest bull market run in U.S. Stock market history- easily beating emerging and other developed countries’ equity markets.
Massive US Stock Market Rally
Keynesian economists lauded this as an accomplishment- they believed they were creating what is called a “Wealth Effect” - a theory that stated that as people’s financial wealth increased, they would be induced to do more spending and investment- thus, by propping up the stock market, they would stimulate the real economy. This is awfully convenient for the rich- the top 10% own 85% of the equity markets, and thus have seen their wealth balloon by over 186% while growth for everyone else stagnated.
Ironically this theory has it exactly backwards- real economic growth should drive the stock market, not the other way around. But, convinced of their theories, economic policymakers continued to pump ever increasing sums into the financial system.
When you divide stock market performance by the Fed’s Balance sheet, you see that there has been basically NO real growth since 2008.
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The Rally is an Illusion
The entire “rally” we have experienced for the past 12 years has been nothing but an illusion- it is simply the result of vast money inflows into the financial system. Banks and financial institutions will do everything they can to convince you that the high stock market valuations are justified by fundamental growth.
This is wrong- these valuations are NOT justified. Insane levels of money printing and debt leverage have created extremely dislocated equity markets. For example, Square (SQ) has a forward PE ratio of 499.87- it currently doesn't pay a dividend, but let’s assume it paid a 3% dividend payout ratio (which is rare for tech stocks) - if that were the case, it would take 14,996 YEARS for the dividends to pay pack the price of ONE SHARE. (449.87/0.03).
To summarize, see this image from a post I made a month back- all the warning lights are blinking red. The markets are at the extreme end of the range by almost every valuation metric- and no one seems to care.
Summary of Recent Warnings
The markets are slowly being “walked up” every day. Today, the ultimate price insensitive buyer (the Fed) is now plowing $120B a month into Treasuries and MBS, and the Primary Dealers now have to turn around and put their money somewhere. The bond market is already a trap with 2% yields, and 5% inflation. There’s no more profit potential there, so these institutions are forced to buy equities if they want any returns. The Fed is killing whatever is left of price discovery.
SPX grinding higher daily
Four billion dollars or so a day is being pumped into the system- and going straight to the stock markets.
Further, to stimulate growth in the real economy, policymakers dropped interest rates to near 0% in late 2008 to induce bank lending to get consumers to borrow and spend again. (70% of our economy is consumption due to the factors discussed in Part 1).
This did create massive loan demand- basically every sector of the US economy began borrowing en masse. The Fed was able to “reflate” the bubble and allow the economy to survive on debt financing to “re-invigorate the economy”. Fast-forward to today, and a decade of pinning rates to the zero-bound has us breaking records in terms of debt loads:
Student Loan Debt:
Student Loan Debt
Corporate Debt:
Corporate Debt to GDP
Consumer Credit Card Debt:
Consumer Credit as % of GDP
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Auto Loan Debt.
Auto Loans
I could go on and on, but you get the point. Now, the entire system is overleveraged- the cancer has spread, and it has infected virtually every single sector of the economy.
People keep saying that we “kicked the can” of 2008 down the road. This is WRONG. We kicked the can UP THE STAIRS- meaning, we not only delayed the problem, but made sure it would get WORSE, since we borrowed MORE to paper over the old debts and worthless securities the system had created.
A fascinating aspect of our recent financial history is that the bailouts are exponentially growing- this is due to the simple fact that the entity giving the bailout has to have a balance sheet multiples larger than the firm receiving the bailout, and government guarantees of banks induce reckless speculation. For example, to bailout a bank with $10B in mark-to-market losses, you need a bank with a $20 or $30B capital surplus, to absorb the loss and keep the depositors and creditors satisfied that the bank giving the bailout won’t go under.
In 1998, a hedge fund called LTCM was near collapse- it had leveraged itself over 25-1, using complex algorithms made by Nobel Prize winning economists to predict bond prices. They had made massive derivative bets buying Russian bonds (among other things) - and when the Russian government defaulted in August 1998, their positions began to unravel.
The massive debt and derivative exposure they had created was threatening to pull several large banks down with it. The Fed stepped in during September to organize a $3.5 Billion bailout, funded by 12 large banks. According to James Rickards, General Counsel of the LTCM Bailout- the US equity and bond markets were “close to being completely shut down” during the worst of that crisis. (start at 16:30)
In 2008, the entire US financial system was nearing collapse and desperately needed a bailout. A massive bank run had begun. Congress stepped up and provided- in the end spending over $498 Billion of taxpayer funds. However, the Fed also provided a bailout (though QE), eventually buying over $1.7 Trillion of MBS.
Since the Great Financial Crisis, the banking system debt crisis has now become a government debt crisis, and indeed an economic debt crisis- and this debt has spread worldwide. Equity and bond markets have continued to march up, despite fundamentals. This new financial paradigm was rightly termed “The Everything Bubble”
Total World Debt
Total (Govt+Private) Global Debt now stands at staggering $281 Trillion, or 356% of GDP. We’ve never been here before- we are now navigating uncharted waters. The next bailout will have to be bigger- a LOT bigger.

Avalanches

Avalanche
Imagine a snowfield on an alpine slope, above a small town. A few inches of snow falls. Everything is fine. More snow falls. Still nothing happens. A blizzard moves in. A day later, the snowfield reaches critical mass. Then, a disturbance happens- it could be a deer foraging for food, or a hapless skier exploring the backcountry. The snow starts sliding, pushing the snow below it. Positive feedback loops start to engage. The field begins to slide- now an avalanche has begun. The town is wiped out.
The financial crisis was the beginning of a debt avalanche- it’s likely that over 70% of the major banks, mortgage brokers, and other financial institutions would have gone bankrupt, superseding the Great Depression-era record of 30%. Thousands of private and public companies would have gone bankrupt. Real estate and equity markets would have entered a freefall lasting for years, and unemployment would likely have spiked past 30%, bringing back the soup lines not seen since 1936.
Instead, policymakers kicked the can up the stairs- they issued massive amounts of government debt to paper over the 2008 crisis, and incentivized excessive borrowing in the private sector. The fundamental factors that caused the crisis (unregulated derivatives, bank combinations, excessive leverage, lack of oversight) were never resolved. As u/Criand so elegantly puts it, 2008 never ended. Now, with US Government Debt standing at over $28 Trillion, there are only tough choices ahead. We will soon reach a point where the interest payments alone on the debt supersede all US Tax Revenues- when that happens, we will have traveled beyond the event horizon- there will be no coming back. The debt will be IMPOSSIBLE to pay off. (This is according to the governments own projections!)📷
US Government Debt Projection
The US Government continues to borrow- running a staggering $2.1 Trillion deficits for just the first half of 2021. There is no end in sight. The Biden Administration is pushing for another $1.2 Trillion in infrastructure spending this year ON TOP of the already massive deficits. Some politicians are demanding that it be more.
Day by day, we are adding snow to the mountains above our village. When will end is anyone’s guess, but borrowing more will only make the end worse.

Smoothbrain Overview:

• Through the magic of Fractional Reserve banking, institutions can loan out much more debt than cash that actually exists. This increases systemic risk.
• As a result, over 90% of all capital created is in the form of debt. This supercharges debt cycles and can cause massive bank failures.
• When debt super-cycles crest, and begin the march downwards, massive deleveraging and defaults begin. If the banking system is weak, bank runs begin. (1930s)
• We were hitting another end of the 80 yr debt cycle in 2008 (1929-2008 (79yrs)). We never de-leveraged the system. Instead, we re-leveraged EVERYTHING even MORE.
• The Government and the Fed swept in and bailed out the banks. Now the Federal Government is deeply in debt to the tune of $28 Trillion.
• The trillions printed by the Fed were almost exclusively routed to the financial system- creating a new bubble in every single asset class, larger and even more widespread than the 2008 bubble.
• We never resolved 2008. We only kicked the can up the stairs. The Derivatives monster from Pt 2, along with a massive debt avalanche, will come back with a vengeance.
• Almost every sector of the US economy, and indeed the world economy, is now greatly overleveraged. Global Total Debt to GDP broke past 350% during Covid.
• Options are running out for policymakers. Debt borrowing and money-printing cannot continue forever.

Conclusion:

The debt crisis will return, but this time, it will be the financial system, US government, and indeed the ENTIRE world economy that needs a bailout- and who has a big enough balance sheet to absorb that? The only answer is the ones with an infinite balance sheet- the Central Banks.
The idea that anyone can borrow forever, or print money forever, with no consequences, defies basic financial logic. Impossible Objects cannot exist forever. History shows deadly consequences for the nations that venture down either path. The United States is no exception.
The Fed has already tried to escape this trap in 2018. It failed. Sovereign creditors are losing faith in the US Treasury, and have been since 2015. The walls are closing in, and the ultimate decision must be made. (More on this in Pt 4)
The avalanche is coming either way- and we only have two choices. Either we allow ourselves to be buried under a mountain of hyper-deflation, creating a new Great Depression, frozen credit and equity markets, and massive bank failures- or, we burn our way out, using the inferno of money-printing and hyper-inflation.
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BUY, HODL, BUCKLE UP.

>>>>>TO BE CONTINUED >>>>> PART FOUR (SERIES FINALE) “AT WORLD’S END”

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(Adding this to clear up FUD- My argument is for hyperinflation to begin in a few years- this is a years- long PROCESS, and will take a long time to play out. It won't happen tomorrow, but we are in the same situation as Germany after WW1. Hyperinflation is GOOD FOR GME--- DEBT VALUE COLLAPSES, MONEY CHASES ASSETS (EQUITIES) pushing the price UP, so shorts will have to cover) BUY AND HOLD.
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Nothing on this Post constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any security, portfolio of securities, investment product, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. From reading my Post I cannot assess anything about your personal circumstances, your finances, or your goals and objectives, all of which are unique to you, so any opinions or information contained on this Post are just that – an opinion or information. Please consult a financial professional if you seek advice.
*If you would like to learn more, check out my recommended reading list here. This is a dummy google account, so feel free to share with friends- none of my personal information is attached. You can also check out a Google docs version of my Endgame Series here. (ALL THESE LINKS ARE GOOGLE DRIVE LINKS, FROM A DUMMY ACCT!)
(Side note: I’ve been accused of being a shill/FUD spreader for the first two posts- please know this is NOT my intention! I cleared this series with Mods, (PROOF) (THIS IS A GOOGLE DRIVE LINK, I WASNT SURE HOW ELSE TO SHARE IT) but if you think this is FUD/SHILLY then downvote/comment and I can discuss further.)